What Makes Someone Vote Against Their Political Party? | Sarah Longwell | TED

翻译人员: Laixi Kang 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

Hi, guys!

嗨，大家好！

I'm Sarah Longwell,

我叫莎拉·朗威尔 （Sarah Longwell），

and my favorite TV show is "Survivor."

我最喜欢的电视节目是《幸存者》。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now, you know this show,

大家都知道，

it's the one where they take a bunch of people,

在这个节目中，他们选一帮人，

put them on a desert island,

把他们安置在荒岛上， 让他们生火、搭建房屋住所。

they make them make fire and, like, houses,

or, like, a shelter.

And they make them a tribe.

让他们建立自己的部落。

And then, every week, they vote somebody out of the tribe.

然后，每周他们会投票， 将某一成员淘汰出部落。

This show's been on for, like, 45 seasons.

这个节目大概拍了 45 季了。

There's versions of it in 50 different countries.

有 50 个国家都拍了自己的版本。

And I think the reason that this show is so popular and enduring

而我认为这个节目之所以 如此受欢迎，拍了这么多季，

is because we can all really relate to that anxiety

是因为我们每个人都知道

of being rejected by our tribe.

被我们的族群拒绝的焦虑。

Now, social scientists, anthropologists, people who study people,

社会科学家，人类学家， 这些研究人类的人，

they will tell us that there is nothing more traumatic for a human

他们会说，对人类来说，没有什么

than getting kicked out of their tribe.

比被驱逐出部落更痛苦的了。

We all want to fit in,

我们都想融入社会，

we all crave community and belonging.

我们都渴望社区和归属感。

We've had tribal instincts for as long as we've been around.

自从人类开始存在以来， 我们就拥有部族本能。

Right? Humans have.

没错吧。这种本能是与生俱来的，

It's hardwired in there,

as part of our survival instincts,

是我们生存本能的一部分，

so we don't get eaten by lions or bears.

这样我们才不会被狮子或熊吃掉。

And right now, our politics is defined by partisan tribalism.

而如今，我们的政治 则被党派部族主义而定义。

Now, the nice people at TED ...

TED 善良的主办方……

when they asked me to give this talk,

当他们请我做这个演讲时，

they gave me the topic "Democracy over party,"

他们给了我一个主题 “民主大过党派”，

which essentially means asking people to go against their tribe.

这个主题实际上是叫人们 反对他们的部族。

And I rejected this topic, at first -- I didn't want to do it,

起初我拒绝了这个话题—— 我不想讲这个，

because I've listened to thousands of American voters,

因为我听过成千上万的美国选民的声音，

and I know that they don't feel nearly the connection to democracy

知道他们与民主制的联系远远小于

that they do to their political team,

他们与自己的政党部族的联系。

their partisan tribe.

In fact, in America, most voters don't think about democracy at all.

事实上，在美国，大多数选民 根本不会考虑民主。

I learned this one the hard way, back in 2018.

早在 2018 年 ，我就 艰难地意识到这一点。

I was just your average, traditional lesbian Republican ...

当时，我不过是一名普通的 传统共和党人和女同性恋者……

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And I was super alarmed

我对唐纳德·特朗普对我所隶属的党的 所作所为感到惊慌困惑。

by what Donald Trump was doing to my party.

And so I thought somebody should primary him.

所以我想，初选得有其他候选人。

And so I was running around,

于是我四处奔走，

talking to a governor and some congressmen,

找一位州长、一些国会议员 以及其他一些人交流，

some other people,

and I was like, "You've got to primary this guy."

跟他们说： “你得在初选里和特朗普竞争。”

But they all wanted to know one thing:

但是他们都只想知道一件事：

if they ran a primary against Trump, could they win?

如果他们在初选中 做特朗普的对手，他们能赢吗？

So I started doing a bunch of polling and focus groups

因此，我开始组织一系列 民意调查和焦点小组访谈，

so I could go make the case, to these potential candidates,

这样我就可以 向这些潜在的候选人证明

that, of course, Republicans wanted an alternative to Trump.

共和党人肯定想有 除特朗普之外的选择。

Of course they thought that he was a threat to democracy.

他们肯定会认为特朗普是 对民主制的威胁。

Of course they were up for putting democracy over party.

他们肯定会愿意将民主置于党派之上。

Nope.

并没有。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Not at all.

完全没有。

They liked Trump fine.

他们觉得特朗普挺好。

They thought he was funny,

他们认为他很幽默，

they thought he was a good businessman,

觉得他有商业思想，

they liked it that he “told it like it was”

他们喜欢他“不粉饰太平”，

and that he wasn't a regular politician.

觉得他不是一般的政治家。

And I was so startled by how immune these voters seemed

让我大吃一惊的是， 这些选民似乎

to Trump's antidemocratic behavior

对特朗普的反民主行为无动于衷，

that I started doing focus groups all the time,

于是我开始花长时间做焦点小组访谈，

because I was like, "I've got to figure out what is going on."

因为我想：我得弄清楚 这是怎么一回事。

Polling is whatever,

投票就算了，

but the thing that I like about focus groups

但我喜欢焦点小组的地方在于，

is you learn as much from what voters don't say as what they do say.

选民闭口不谈的东西 和他们的话语一样重要。

I have never heard a voter say,

我从没听任何选民说：

"Boy, I really like Trump, because he has authoritarian vibes."

“哎，我可真喜欢特朗普， 因为他有独裁风范。”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

They just don't care about the antidemocratic behavior,

他们只是不在乎特朗普反民主的行为，

or they don't even clock that it's antidemocratic.

或者他们甚至没意识到 这是反民主的行为。

Trump praises dictators?

特朗普对独裁者大加称赞？

OK.

行呗。

He hijacks American foreign policy for his own political purposes

他出于政治私利 劫持美国的外交政策

and gets impeached for it?

并因此遭到弹劾？

They don't care.

他们不在乎。

He uses the White House to enrich himself and his family?

他利用白宫致富自己和家人？

Not worried about it.

无所谓。

Trump's a member of their tribe.

特朗普是他们部族的一份子。

Right? So he gets the benefit of the doubt.

所以他们愿意对他从宽看待。

Even Republican voters who didn't like Trump,

哪怕是不喜欢特朗普的共和党选民，

even they still recoiled at direct attacks on him,

这些人依然会厌恶对特朗普的直接抨击，

especially if those attacks were coming from outside the tribe.

尤其是来自部族之外的攻击。

Right? They're coming from ...

对吧？这些抨击来自于

"the deep state, the media, Democrats --

“深层政府、媒体、民主党人——

Never Trumpers like me.”

就没一个像我这样的特朗普支持者。”

So, primary is off the table, we're not doing that.

因此，初选不在讨论范围内，

So we had to figure out how to beat Trump in the general election.

我们必须弄清楚 如何在大选中击败特朗普。

And I knew that meant

而我知道这意味着

building the necessary permission structures

建立必要的许可体系，

to help disaffected Republicans break from their tribe

帮助心怀不满的共和党人脱离部族，

and vote against Trump.

投票反对特朗普。

That's how we were going to make the margins.

这就是我们与之抗衡的方式。

And to do that, I knew we needed trusted messengers, right?

要做到这一点，我知道我们需要 值得信赖的信使。

Messengers that these folks trusted.

这些人信任的信使。

The problem was they didn't trust anybody.

问题是他们不信任任何人。

They didn't trust institutions or experts,

他们不信任任何机构或专家，

they didn't even trust Republican politicians.

甚至不信任共和党自己的政客。

But then, we had a little bit of a breakthrough.

但是随后，我们取得了一点突破。

So in the focus groups,

在焦点小组中，

we started showing people video testimonials.

我们开始给人们播放证言视频。

Little videos, just of regular people, Republicans,

只是短短的视频， 拍的都是普通的共和党人，

talking about why they couldn't vote for Trump,

讲他们为什么无法在 2020 年 再次给特朗普投票。

again, in 2020.

And suddenly, people were listening.

突然之间，人们开始聆听。

Because it turns out the one group they do trust ...

因为他们最信任的人

is people like them.

就是和他们一样的人。

Right?

对吧？他们同部族的成员，

Members of their tribe

who don't claim any special knowledge or expertise.

没有任何特殊知识或专长的部族成员。

So once we realized this,

当我们意识到这一点后，

we started asking Republicans who didn't want to vote for Trump in 2020

我们开始召集不想在 2020 年 投票支持特朗普的共和党人，

to send us their stories, to send us more of these videos.

让他们向我们发送他们的故事， 更多这样的视频。

God, it was easier, because it was the pandemic,

当时简单的地方在于， 因为是疫情期间，

and so lots of people, they'd make the videos on their phone.

所以很多人会在手机上制作视频。

But actually, it was really hard, at first.

但实际上，起初真的很难。

People were nervous

公开表示不给特朗普投票 让人们很紧张。

about saying they weren't going to vote for Trump publicly.

They didn't want their neighbors to find out,

他们不想让邻居知道，

they didn't want their spouse to find out,

他们不想让伴侣知道，

they didn't want their parents to find out,

他们不想让父母知道，

because that's what tribalism does, right?

因为这就是部族主义，对吧？

It makes us afraid to go against our tribe.

它使我们害怕与部落对抗。

So we fought really hard, scrapped, for the first 100.

因此，前一百个视频 是我们苦苦收集来的。

But once we had the first 100, we knew we had a new tribe.

但是，一旦我们有了这一百人， 我们就知道我们有了新的部族。

We called it "Republican Voters Against Trump."

我们称之为 “反对特朗普的共和党选民”。

People could maintain their Republican identity.

人们可以保持自己的共和党身份。

So once we launched Republican Voters Against Trump,

当我们一发起 “反对特朗普的共和党选民”，

went public with it,

将其公之于众，

all of a sudden, testimonials came flooding in, unsolicited,

突然间，证词大量涌入，不请自来，

because there were lots of people who felt this way.

因为其实有很多人深有同感。

They just needed a tribe to attach to,

他们只不过需要一个部族来依靠，

to feel safe, to feel secure.

给予他们安全感。

There is a reason the phrase "safety in numbers" is a cliché.

“人多势众”这个词是有来由的。

But here's the thing.

但重点是，

None of these testimonials mentioned democracy.

这些证词无一提到民主制度。

Instead,

相反，

they talked about why they became Republicans in the first place.

人们谈到了他们最初成为 共和党人的原因，

What their values were.

他们的价值观，

And why those values meant they couldn't vote for Donald Trump.

以及为什么这些价值观意味着 他们无法投票给唐纳德·特朗普。

They also talked a lot about how painful it was going to be

他们还多次谈到，给民主党人 投票是多么痛苦的一件事。

to vote for Democrats.

They really didn't want to do that.

虽然他们很不愿意， 但他们还是那样做了。

But they did.

But none of them said

但是没有一个人说，

that they were doing it to put democracy over party.

他们这样做是 为了将民主置于党派之上。

But that's exactly what they did,

尽管实际上他们就是这样做的，

when they broke from their tribe

他们选择脱离自己部落，

and voted against a president who was a threat to democracy.

投票反对一位对民主 构成威胁的总统。

Now I know you're thinking,

我知道你在想什么。

"OK, Sarah, but that's 2020. What about 2022?

“好吧，莎拉，但那是 2020 年。 2022 年呢？

After the attack on the Capitol,

在国会山骚乱之后，

and when there are a bunch of Republican candidates

现在还有一群共和党候选人

running on platforms

saying that the election was stolen?"

说选举被操控呢。”

Not really.

情况其实差不多。

Some Democrats talked about democracy,

一部分民主党人有提到民主，

but swing voters,

但摇摆选民，

the ones that were going to make up the margins,

也就是对获胜最重要的选民，

they never talked about democracy in the focus groups.

他们从未在焦点小组中谈过民主。

What they did talk about

他们提到的是， 他们不想投票给共和党人，

was that they didn't want to vote for Republicans

because they were too extreme.

因为这些人太极端了， 主要是在堕胎议题上。

Mainly on abortion.

They didn't think they were a threat to democracy.

他们不觉得这些人对民主构成威胁，

They just thought they were nuts.

他们只是觉得这是群疯子。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But here's the thing.

但事情是这样的。

Just because voters don’t talk about democracy

仅仅因为选民不谈论民主，

doesn't mean they don't understand and value democracy.

并不意味着他们不理解、不重视民主。

It's just that, in America,

只是，在美国，

democracy's like the air we breathe, right?

民主就像我们呼吸的空气，对吧？

It's just that thing we do here.

这就是我们的体系。

And it's so ingrained in who we are

它在我们的文化、身份中根深蒂固，

that it's really hard to see when it's under threat.

以至于我们很难意识到它受到威胁。

And that's why we can't just say "democracy"

这就是为什么我们 不能只说“民主”，

and expect everybody's going to have a shared understanding of what that is

然后指望每个人都对其 有共同的认知，

and know what we're talking about.

知道我们在说什么。

Right now, if you talked to a Republican, and you said,

现在，如果你问共和党人：

"What's the biggest threat to democracy?"

“民主制度面临的最大威胁是什么？”

they’d tell you, “Democrats, because they rigged the 2020 election.”

他们会回答：“民主党人， 因为他们操纵了 2020 年的选举。”

If you talked to a Democrat

如果你问民主党人：

and said, "What's the biggest threat to democracy?"

“民主制度面临的最大威胁是什么？”

they'd tell you it's Republicans,

他们会回答共和党人，

because they attacked the Capitol

因为他们袭击了国会大厦，

and denied the election results in 2020.

并否认了 2020 年的选举结果。

But this doesn't mean we should stop talking about democracy.

但这并不意味着我们 应该停止对民主制的讨论。

On the contrary,

相反，我们需要更好的讨论方式。

we need to talk about democracy better.

[If] we’re going to ask people to put democracy over party,

如果我们要人们将民主置于党派之上，

then we better explain to people what democracy is and why it's good.

那么我们得向他们解释清楚， 民主制的定义及其好处。

Why the things that make up a liberal democracy --

构成自由民主的元素——

pluralism, free speech, the rule of law --

多元主义、言论自由、法治——

why those things underpin a free society

为什么这些是自由社会的基础，

and make us who we are.

造就了我们的本质。

Because if we can tell a better story about democracy,

因为如果我们能讲一个 更好的关于民主的故事，

we can tell a better story about America,

我们就能讲一个 更好的关于美国的故事，

where our politics isn't zero-sum, right?

一个政治不是零和博弈的美国。

I win means you lose.

输赢就是你死我活。

Because the big tribe that is America,

因为美国这个大部落，

the big tribe that's predicated on our democratic values,

是一个以我们的民主价值观 为前提的大部落，

that tribe is big enough and strong enough,

这个部落足够强大，

expansive enough,

足够广阔，

to hold all the other little tribes inside of it,

可以容纳所有其他小族群，

from your progressive Bernie Bros

从进步派的伯尼·桑德斯支持者，

to your evangelical Christians

到福音派基督徒，

to your basic lesbian Republicans.

再到普通的共和党女同性恋。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But we've got to attach people to that bigger tribe.

但是我们必须让人们 与这个更大的部落建立联系。

I don't have to tell you,

大家都知道，

we're in a very precarious moment for American democracy.

美国民主正处于一个非常不稳定的时刻。

And if democracy can't hold in America,

而如果民主制度无法在美国维持，

it's going to make it a lot harder

那将使它在其他国家的生存 变得更加困难。

for democracy to survive in other countries.

But we are not going to stave off

但是，要避免这一危险版的共和党，

this dangerous version of the Republican Party

by telling people to put democracy over party.

我们不能叫人们把民主置于党派之上。

We're going to do it by winning elections.

我们要通过赢得选举来做到这一点。

We're going to do it

就像我们建立 “反对特朗普的共和党选民”一样，

the same way we built Republican Voters Against Trump,

by building a dominant political coalition

我们要建立一个主导的政治联盟，

using permission structures and trusted messengers.

设立许可结构和可信的信使。

I focus on the center-right,

我专注于中右翼，

lots of people focus on other margins,

很多人关注其他群体，

but we’re going to have to claw for every margin.

但我们必须抓住每一个可能性。

Because if we can win right now, in the short term ...

因为如果我们现在能在短期内获胜，

then in the long term,

那么从长远来看，

we can set about telling this better story about democracy.

我们可以着手讲述 这个关于民主的更好故事。

Because here's the good news.

好消息是，

The fact that voters don't think much about democracy

选民对民主制度的考虑不多，

is actually our greatest opportunity.

这其实是我们最大的机遇。

It means that we have the chance,

这意味着我们有机会，

those of us who are trying to defend democracy around the world,

对我们这些努力捍卫 世界各地民主的人来说，

it means that we have the chance

这意味着我们有机会

to rekindle the love of democracy for a new generation.

重燃新一代对民主制度的热爱。

And if we can do that,

而如果我们能做到这一点，

we won't have to ask them to put democracy over party.

我们就不必告诫下一代 将民主置于党派之上。

Thanks.

谢谢。

(Cheers and applause)

（欢呼声和掌声）