What Makes Someone Vote Against Their Political Party? | Sarah Longwell | TED

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Shelley Tsang 曾雯海

Hi, guys!

嗨，各位！

I'm Sarah Longwell,

我是莎菈‧隆威爾，

and my favorite TV show is "Survivor."

我最喜歡的電視節目 是《我要活下去》。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Now, you know this show,

你們知道，這個節目就是把一群人

it's the one where they take a bunch of people,

送到一個荒島上，讓他們 想辦法生活、建造房子，

put them on a desert island,

they make them make fire and, like, houses,

or, like, a shelter.

或庇護處所，讓他們成為一個部落。

And they make them a tribe.

And then, every week, they vote somebody out of the tribe.

接著，每週，他們投票 從部落中選出要讓誰出局。

This show's been on for, like, 45 seasons.

這個節目已經有也許四十五季了。

There's versions of it in 50 different countries.

在五十個不同的國家都有 這個節目的類似版本。

And I think the reason that this show is so popular and enduring

我認為這個節目如此 受歡迎且持久的原因

is because we can all really relate to that anxiety

是因為我們都能 對那種焦慮感同身受，

of being rejected by our tribe.

被我們的部落排拒的焦慮。

Now, social scientists, anthropologists, people who study people,

社會科學家、人類學家、 研究人類的人，

they will tell us that there is nothing more traumatic for a human

他們會告訴我們， 對人類而言最具創傷性的

than getting kicked out of their tribe.

就是被踢出自己所屬的部落。

We all want to fit in,

我們都想要融入，

we all crave community and belonging.

我們都渴望共同體和歸屬。

We've had tribal instincts for as long as we've been around.

從人類出現以來， 就一直擁有部落本能。

Right? Humans have.

對吧？人類都有。

It's hardwired in there,

那是與生俱來的，

as part of our survival instincts,

是我們生存本能的一部分，

so we don't get eaten by lions or bears.

這樣我們才不會被獅子或熊給吃掉。

And right now, our politics is defined by partisan tribalism.

而現在，我們的政治

是由黨派部落主義來定義的。

Now, the nice people at TED ...

TED 的那些好人……

when they asked me to give this talk,

他們邀我來做這場演說時，給我的 主題是「把民主擺在黨派之前」，

they gave me the topic "Democracy over party,"

基本上的意思就是 要求人反對他們的部落。

which essentially means asking people to go against their tribe.

我一開始拒絕了這個 主題——我不想做它，

And I rejected this topic, at first -- I didn't want to do it,

because I've listened to thousands of American voters,

因為我聽取了數千名 美國選民的想法，

and I know that they don't feel nearly the connection to democracy

我知道他們對民主的連結感遠不及

他們對他們的政治團隊、 他們的黨派部落來得深厚。

that they do to their political team,

their partisan tribe.

In fact, in America, most voters don't think about democracy at all.

事實上，在美國，

大部分選民完全沒有在思考民主。

I learned this one the hard way, back in 2018.

2018 年，我靠一段艱苦的 經歷才學到這點的。

I was just your average, traditional lesbian Republican ...

我那時只是普通的 傳統女同志共和黨員……

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And I was super alarmed

川普對我的黨所做的事 讓我相當震驚。

by what Donald Trump was doing to my party.

And so I thought somebody should primary him.

我認為應該要有人挑戰他的提名。

And so I was running around,

於是我四處奔波，

talking to a governor and some congressmen,

去找一名州長、 一些國會議員等談談，

some other people,

我說：「你們得挑戰 這個傢伙的提名。」

and I was like, "You've got to primary this guy."

But they all wanted to know one thing:

但他們都想知道一件事：

if they ran a primary against Trump, could they win?

如果他們在初選中 對抗川普，他們能贏嗎？

So I started doing a bunch of polling and focus groups

於是我開始做一大堆 民調和焦點小組，

so I could go make the case, to these potential candidates,

讓我可以向這些有機會 成為候選人的人證明

that, of course, Republicans wanted an alternative to Trump.

當然共和黨員會希望 有川普以外的選擇，

Of course they thought that he was a threat to democracy.

當然他們認為他會威脅到

Of course they were up for putting democracy over party.

民主，且當然，他們會 先把民主擺在黨派之前。

Nope.

並不是。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Not at all.

完全不是。

They liked Trump fine.

他們真的喜歡川普， 他們覺得他很有趣，

They thought he was funny,

they thought he was a good businessman,

他們覺得他是個厲害的商人，

they liked it that he “told it like it was”

他們喜歡他「直言不諱」，

and that he wasn't a regular politician.

且他不是一般的政治人物。

And I was so startled by how immune these voters seemed

我好驚訝，

這些選民似乎對川普 踐踏民主的行為無動於衷，

to Trump's antidemocratic behavior

that I started doing focus groups all the time,

於是我不斷做焦點小組，心想： 「我得搞懂這是怎麼搞的。」

because I was like, "I've got to figure out what is going on."

Polling is whatever,

民調無所謂，但我喜歡焦點小組

but the thing that I like about focus groups

是因為你能從選民說了什麼 以及不說什麼來取得資訊。

is you learn as much from what voters don't say as what they do say.

I have never heard a voter say,

我從來沒有聽過有選民說：

"Boy, I really like Trump, because he has authoritarian vibes."

「天，我好愛川普，因為他 給人一種獨裁主義的氛圍。」

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

They just don't care about the antidemocratic behavior,

他們只是不在乎踐踏民主的行為，

or they don't even clock that it's antidemocratic.

或者他們甚至不覺得 那些行為是在踐踏民主。

Trump praises dictators?

川普稱讚獨裁者？

OK.

好吧。

他劫持美國外交政策

He hijacks American foreign policy for his own political purposes

來達成自己的政治目的， 還因此被彈劾？

and gets impeached for it?

They don't care.

他們不在乎。

He uses the White House to enrich himself and his family?

他利用白宮來讓自己和家人致富？

Not worried about it.

大家不擔心這點。

Trump's a member of their tribe.

川普是他們部落的一員。

Right? So he gets the benefit of the doubt.

所以就算懷疑他也盡量往好處想。

Even Republican voters who didn't like Trump,

即使是不喜歡川普的共和黨選民

even they still recoiled at direct attacks on him,

即使他們對於直接 攻擊川普感到反感，

especially if those attacks were coming from outside the tribe.

特別是來自部落外部的攻擊。

Right? They're coming from ...

比如來自……

"the deep state, the media, Democrats --

「深層政府、媒體、民主黨——

Never Trumpers like me.”

像我這樣從來不愛川普的人。」

So, primary is off the table, we're not doing that.

所以，初選是沒機會了， 我們不走那條路。

So we had to figure out how to beat Trump in the general election.

我們得想辦法在大選中打敗川普。

And I knew that meant

我知道那意味著

building the necessary permission structures

要建立必要的允許結構，

to help disaffected Republicans break from their tribe

幫助心有不滿的共和黨員

脫出他們的部落，

and vote against Trump.

用選票反對川普。

That's how we were going to make the margins.

我們打算這樣拉攏支持者。

And to do that, I knew we needed trusted messengers, right?

我知道要做到這一點， 就需要能被信任的信差，

Messengers that these folks trusted.

這些人信任的信差。

The problem was they didn't trust anybody.

問題是他們誰都不相信。

他們不相信機構或專家，

They didn't trust institutions or experts,

they didn't even trust Republican politicians.

他們甚至不相信共和黨的政治人物。

But then, we had a little bit of a breakthrough.

但接著，我們有了一點小突破。

So in the focus groups,

我們開始在焦點小組中 給參與者看證詞影片，

we started showing people video testimonials.

Little videos, just of regular people, Republicans,

簡短的影片，

內容只是一般人、共和黨員，

talking about why they couldn't vote for Trump,

談論他們為什麼不會 在 2020 年再次投給川普。

again, in 2020.

And suddenly, people were listening.

突然，大家在聽了。

因為事實證明，他們 確實相信的一個族群……

Because it turns out the one group they do trust ...

is people like them.

就是和他們一樣的人。

Right?

對吧？屬於他們部落的人，

Members of their tribe

who don't claim any special knowledge or expertise.

這些人不宣稱自己 有什麼特殊知識或專業。

So once we realized this,

一旦我們發現這一點， 我們開始請不願意

we started asking Republicans who didn't want to vote for Trump in 2020

在 2020 年再次投給川普的共和黨員

to send us their stories, to send us more of these videos.

把他們的故事寄給我們， 寄更多這類影片給我們。

God, it was easier, because it was the pandemic,

天，疫情讓一切更容易了，

and so lots of people, they'd make the videos on their phone.

很多人會用他們的手機製作影片。

But actually, it was really hard, at first.

但實際上，一開始很辛苦。

People were nervous

大家很緊張，

about saying they weren't going to vote for Trump publicly.

不敢公開說他們不會投給川普。

They didn't want their neighbors to find out,

他們不想讓他們的鄰居知道，

they didn't want their spouse to find out,

他們不想讓他們的配偶知道，

他們不想讓他們的父母知道，

they didn't want their parents to find out,

那就是部落主義的特色，對吧？

because that's what tribalism does, right?

It makes us afraid to go against our tribe.

它會讓我們害怕 和我們的部落持反對意見。

So we fought really hard, scrapped, for the first 100.

所以前一百個人是我們 非常努力爭取來的。

But once we had the first 100, we knew we had a new tribe.

但一旦我們找到了一百個人， 我們就知道我們有個新部落了。

We called it "Republican Voters Against Trump."

我們稱之為「反對 川普的共和黨選民」。

People could maintain their Republican identity.

這些人可以保有他們的共和黨身分。

So once we launched Republican Voters Against Trump,

一旦我們公開推出了 「反對川普的共和黨選民」，

went public with it,

突然間，證詞大量湧入， 都是主動提供的，

all of a sudden, testimonials came flooding in, unsolicited,

because there were lots of people who felt this way.

因為有很多人有同感。

They just needed a tribe to attach to,

他們只是需要有個部落來依附， 讓他們能有安全感。

to feel safe, to feel secure.

There is a reason the phrase "safety in numbers" is a cliché.

「人多勢眾（才有安全感）」 這老套的說法是有根據的。

但，重點是：

But here's the thing.

None of these testimonials mentioned democracy.

這些證詞都沒有提到民主。

Instead,

反之，

they talked about why they became Republicans in the first place.

他們談到他們一開始 為什麼成為共和黨員、

What their values were.

談他們的價值觀，

And why those values meant they couldn't vote for Donald Trump.

也談為什麼那些價值觀 意味著他們不能投給川普。

They also talked a lot about how painful it was going to be

他們也談了很多要投給 民主黨會有多痛苦。

to vote for Democrats.

They really didn't want to do that.

他們真的不想投給民主黨。

But they did.

但他們投了。

But none of them said

但都沒有人說他們這麼做 是因為要把民主放在黨派之上。

that they were doing it to put democracy over party.

但那正是他們所做的事，

But that's exactly what they did,

when they broke from their tribe

因為他們脫離了他們的部落，

and voted against a president who was a threat to democracy.

用選票來反對一個 威脅到民主的總統。

我知道各位在想：「好吧，莎菈， 那是 2020 年，那 2022 年呢？」

Now I know you're thinking,

"OK, Sarah, but that's 2020. What about 2022?

After the attack on the Capitol,

在國會大廈遭到攻擊之後，

and when there are a bunch of Republican candidates

且有一群共和黨候選人

running on platforms

在競選時宣稱選舉是被偷走了？」

saying that the election was stolen?"

Not really.

並不是的。

Some Democrats talked about democracy,

有些民主黨員會談論民主，

but swing voters,

但游離選民，會影響差距的那些人，

the ones that were going to make up the margins,

they never talked about democracy in the focus groups.

在焦點團體中，他們 完全沒有談到民主。

What they did talk about

他們確實談到的是 他們不想投給共和黨員，

was that they didn't want to vote for Republicans

因為他們太極端了。

because they were too extreme.

Mainly on abortion.

主要是在墮胎方面。

They didn't think they were a threat to democracy.

他們不覺得這些人在威脅民主，

They just thought they were nuts.

他們只覺得這些人瘋了。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But here's the thing.

但，重點是：

光是「選民不談民主」這一點

Just because voters don’t talk about democracy

doesn't mean they don't understand and value democracy.

並不表示他們不了解和珍視民主。

It's just that, in America,

只是，在美國，

democracy's like the air we breathe, right?

民主就像我們呼吸的空氣，對吧？

It's just that thing we do here.

它就是我們在這裡會做的。

And it's so ingrained in who we are

它深植在我們當中， 所以很難看出它受到威脅。

that it's really hard to see when it's under threat.

And that's why we can't just say "democracy"

那就是為什麼我們 不能只是說「民主」

and expect everybody's going to have a shared understanding of what that is

然後就期望大家都同樣了解 那是什麼、知道我們在講什麼。

and know what we're talking about.

現在，如果你對一個共和黨員說：

Right now, if you talked to a Republican, and you said,

"What's the biggest threat to democracy?"

「對民主最大的威脅是什麼？」

they’d tell you, “Democrats, because they rigged the 2020 election.”

他們會說：「民主黨，因為 他們假造了 2020 年的選舉。」

If you talked to a Democrat

如果你去問一個民主黨員： 「對民主最大的威脅是什麼？」

and said, "What's the biggest threat to democracy?"

他們會說是共和黨，

they'd tell you it's Republicans,

because they attacked the Capitol

因為他們襲擊了國會大廈， 並否認 2020 年的選舉結果。

and denied the election results in 2020.

But this doesn't mean we should stop talking about democracy.

但那並不表示我們應該 停止談論民主。

On the contrary,

相反的，我們得用 更好的方式談論民主。

we need to talk about democracy better.

[If] we’re going to ask people to put democracy over party,

如果我們希望大家 把民主擺在黨派之前，

那我們最好向大家解釋民主是什麼、

then we better explain to people what democracy is and why it's good.

為什麼它是好的、

Why the things that make up a liberal democracy --

為什麼構成自由民主的那些元素——

多元主義、言論自由、法治——

pluralism, free speech, the rule of law --

why those things underpin a free society

為什麼這些元素能鞏固

自由社會，

and make us who we are.

並造就現在的我們。

Because if we can tell a better story about democracy,

因為如果我們能說出 更好的民主故事，

we can tell a better story about America,

我們就能說出更好的美國故事，

where our politics isn't zero-sum, right?

在這個故事中， 我們的政治並非零和。

對吧？

I win means you lose.

我贏就表示你輸。

Because the big tribe that is America,

因為美國這個大部落，

是立基在我們民主價值上的大部落，

the big tribe that's predicated on our democratic values,

that tribe is big enough and strong enough,

它夠大、夠強壯、

expansive enough,

夠廣闊，可以容納得下 所有其他小部落，

to hold all the other little tribes inside of it,

from your progressive Bernie Bros

從進步派的伯尼支持者，

to your evangelical Christians

到福音派基督徒，

to your basic lesbian Republicans.

到基本的女同志共和黨員。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But we've got to attach people to that bigger tribe.

但我們必須要讓大家 依附這個更大的部落。

I don't have to tell you,

不用我說，

美國民主現在正處於 一個非常不穩定的時期。

we're in a very precarious moment for American democracy.

And if democracy can't hold in America,

如果民主在美國維持不下去，

it's going to make it a lot harder

在其他國家，民主會更難更難生存。

for democracy to survive in other countries.

But we are not going to stave off

但我們若要避免這個 危險版本的共和黨，不能靠

this dangerous version of the Republican Party

by telling people to put democracy over party.

要求大家把民主擺在黨派之前。

We're going to do it by winning elections.

我們要靠的是贏得選舉。

We're going to do it

我們要靠的是我們建立「反對 川普的共和黨選民」所用的方法，

the same way we built Republican Voters Against Trump,

by building a dominant political coalition

也就是運用允許結構和被信任的信差

using permission structures and trusted messengers.

來建立一個主導的政治聯盟。

I focus on the center-right,

我專注在中間偏右的這一派，

lots of people focus on other margins,

許多人專注在其他可拉攏的 支持者，但我們每一群都會顧到。

but we’re going to have to claw for every margin.

因為如果在短期我們能夠勝利……

Because if we can win right now, in the short term ...

then in the long term,

那麼長遠來看，

we can set about telling this better story about democracy.

我們就可以開始講述 這個更好的民主故事。

Because here's the good news.

因為，有個好消息：

The fact that voters don't think much about democracy

「選民不太會去思考 民主」這個事實，

is actually our greatest opportunity.

其實是我們最大的機會。

It means that we have the chance,

這意味著我們有機會，

those of us who are trying to defend democracy around the world,

我們指的是在世界各地 嘗試捍衛民主的人，

it means that we have the chance

這意味著我們有機會，

to rekindle the love of democracy for a new generation.

能為新世代重新點燃對民主的熱愛。

And if we can do that,

如果我們能做到這一點，

we won't have to ask them to put democracy over party.

我們就不用要求他們 把民主擺在黨派之前了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

(Cheers and applause)

（歡呼及掌聲）