A Socialist Perspective on the Pursuit of Happiness | Aaron Bastani | TED

翻译人员: e lo 校对人员: Sue Lu

Allow me to introduce myself.

让我先做个自我介绍吧。

I’m a writer, journalist

我是一个作家，记者，

and a socialist.

也是社会主义者。

I also used to be broke.

我曾身无分文，

I did, for a long time.

真的，很长一段时间都是如此。

Being a student,

那时我还是学生，

trying to make a name for myself in the media industry

希望能在媒体行业成名,

and starting a media organization.

并正在创建一家媒体公司。

I had to move 15 times in 15 years

15 年内，我不得不搬迁 15 次,

because the rent in London just kept on going up.

因为伦敦的房租一直在上涨。

Now, this taught me an important lesson, firsthand.

这些亲身经历给我上了重要的一课：

Namely, you can want to study public policy or astrophysics,

你可以期望学习公共政策或者天体物理，

you can want to make a name for yourself,

你可以期望成就一番事业，

you can want to do an honest day’s work.

你也可以期望做份按部就班的工作。

But all of that is extraordinarily difficult

但是要实现那一切会非常困难，

if your mind is thinking about those unpaid bills.

如果你的心思都在那些拖欠的账单上。

Or knowing, with the fullness of your heart,

或者，你心知肚明，

that when you go to the cashpoint,

在自动提款机上提款时，

it's going to respond "Insufficient funds."

提款机将会提示“资金不足”。

Now, while I was going through all this --

当我在经历这一切的时候——

which, I have to say, happened a little bit too long for my liking --

不得不说，这段经历时间太长了点——

I agreed with the ideas that I was reading from the liberal tradition,

我很赞同我读到的一些自由主义观念，

namely that individuals are uniquely placed

那就是，个体最有资格决定

to determine how their lives should unfold -- nobody else is.

如何展开自己的人生，他人无权干预。

For everybody in this room,

对今天在场的每个人而言，

the best person to decide how your life should unfold is you.

决定你人生如何发展的 最佳人选是你自己，

There’s no higher authority, certainly not the state.

而非他人，更不会是你的国家政府。

But what was equally clear

但是同样清楚的是，

was that, in the absence of access to certain resources --

在缺少某些资源的情况下，

education, transport, health care and housing --

比如教育，交通，医疗以及住房，

that capacity for self-authorship is clearly limited for many people.

很多人的自我实现能力受到限制。

We clearly live in a society

显然，在我们生活的社会里，

where what we view as liberty, the pursuit of happiness,

我们视为自由和追求幸福的东西，

is limited for the majority of the global population.

对全球大多数人来说是极其有限的。

For many, it's illusory.

对很多人来说，那只是幻想。

It turns out that liberal ends of self-authorship,

事实证明，自由主义的目标， 比如自我实现，

of determining how your life should unfold,

以及决定自己的人生如何展开，

require socialist means.

需要社会主义的手段来实现。

The state must get involved.

国家必须参与进来。

Now, we live in a world where capitalism has completely prevailed.

我们生活在一个资本主义横行的世界，

It's won.

资本主义大获全胜。

I was asked, behind stage, "What are you wearing?"

有人在后台问我：你穿的是什么？

I said, "Chanel Allure." And I'm the communist.

我说，“香奈儿诱惑“（香水名）。 而我是一个社会主义者。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

OK? So I'm under no illusions --

懂吗？我从来不抱任何幻想——

it has completely prevailed.

资本主义已经完全占据上风。

And the ideas driving it are those of economic liberalism.

经济自由主义是它背后的推动力量。

Economic liberalism says what I've just said to you.

经济自由主义说的，就是我刚刚阐释的，

The individual is uniquely placed to determine how their life unfolds,

个体最有资格决定其人生发展，

and that this should happen through the market.

这应该是通过市场来实现的。

But there's a problem.

但是有个问题，

While the market can be an extraordinary resource

虽然市场可以成为一个非凡的资源，

to get the things you need to get to be who you want to be,

帮你去获得所需以成就自己。

for many, it's the opposite.

但是对许多人来说，情况恰恰相反，

It’s a source of un-freedom.

市场，是不自由的源泉，

It's a constraint.

是一种限制。

It's more akin to a system of rationing

它更类似于配给制度，

than of prosperity.

而不是带来繁荣。

We know this is the case for an increasing number of people,

越来越多的人正处于这种情况，

because the numbers don't lie.

因为数据不会说谎。

In 2018, 40 million Americans used food stamps --

在 2018 年，有 4000 万 美国人使用食品券，

13 million more than in 2007, before the global financial crisis.

相比 2007 年全球金融危机爆发前， 多出 1300 万。

Clearly, something is broken.

显然，这是有问题的。

You can disagree with me about everything else,

你可以否认我说的其他任何事情，

but those are the facts.

但是这些是事实。

In the UK, a much smaller country,

英国，比美国要小得多，

in 2016, 17 million people of working age

在 2016 年，它的 1700 万劳动适龄人口

had 100 pounds or less savings.

只拥有不超过 100 镑的存款。

They are one minor accident away from penury.

他们离贫困只有一步之遥。

17 million people of working age.

1700 万劳动适龄人口。

And on the thing that capitalism asks to be judged by,

而另一个资本主义要求被评判的方面，

global growth,

全球经济发展，

it says, "All this terrible stuff happens, inequality, poverty, whatever --

它如是说，“尽管这些可怕的事情 都在发生，不平等、贫困等等，

but we've still got growth."

但经济还是在增长。“

Well, actually, the story isn't so great there either.

事实上，现状并非那么乐观。

Despite the rise of China, global growth is in secular decline.

尽管中国在崛起，但是全球发展 处在长期下降趋势中。

So, to be clear, the global economy is still growing,

所以准确地说，全球经济仍然在增长，

but at a smaller, slower rate, decade on decade.

但是，几十年来增速逐年放缓。

20 years ago, if you said the term "lost decade,"

20 年前，如果你说，“失去的十年”，

you were talking about Japan.

那是专指日本。

My apologies to anybody here of Japanese heritage.

我向在座任何有日本血统的人道歉。

Today, it's an appropriate term for much of the global economy.

现在，这个词可以用来形容 全球大多数的经济。

From Britain to Italy, South Africa to Brazil,

从英国到意大利，南非到巴西，

as one lost decade becomes two.

失去的十年变成了二十年，

And it gets worse.

甚至越来越糟。

This economic malaise we've seen over the last 15 years

过去 15 年我们所经历的经济萎靡，

is surely to be joined by the climate crisis,

必将因气候危机、

and then, demographic aging, a crisis of elderly care.

人口老龄化、养老危机而日甚一日。

It turns out that the opening decades of the 21st century,

21 世纪的最初 20 多年,

as bad as they were, for many,

对很多人来说已经够糟糕，

are merely the leading edge of a hurricane.

但它仅仅是飓风来临的前兆。

Now ...

好吧，

despite everything I've just said to you,

虽然我刚刚讲了这些严峻的形势，

I'm an optimist.

但我是个乐观主义者。

I believe that humans have the ingenuity to address all of these challenges

我相信人类有解决这些挑战的能力，

and reach unprecedented prosperity and liberty for all.

并且能达到前所未有的自由与繁荣。

That can happen by employing the state

要实现这个愿景，需要借助国家力量，

and leveraging the technology revolution.

并且利用科技革命。

I wrote a book about it.

我写了一本相关的书，

It's called "Fully Automated Luxury Communism."

称为《全自动奢华共产主义》。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

The c-word.

那个以 c 开头的单词。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Fully automated, because we need an economic system

之所以全自动， 是因为我们需要一个经济体制，

which reduces the necessity of human labor in the production process.

它能够减少生产过程对人类劳动的依赖。

Luxury, because we need to expand

奢华，是因为我们要让所有人

the sense of liberty and leisure time for all.

获得更多的自由感和闲暇时间。

Communism, because what I believe is heading our way this century, maybe,

共产主义，是因为我相信这个世纪

could see the end of production for exchange

就可能终结这些现状， 比如为了交换而生产，

and the necessity of humans to sell their labor for a wage.

以及人类为工薪而出卖劳力。

But in politics,

但在政治上，

big ideas only get you so far.

宏大的理想只能让人走这么远。

That's been a problem for the Left historically,

历史上左派一直有个问题，

I don't know if you know.

不清楚你们是否知道。

And what matters in the here and now, in 2022,

而此时此刻， 2022 年，最重要的

are concrete proposals.

是切实可行的方案。

So how do we leverage the technology revolution?

那么，我们如何充分利用技术革命呢？

How do we employ the state

如何利用国家力量

to address all the challenges I've just spoken about,

去应对我刚刚提到的所有挑战？

which I'm pretty sure everybody in this room would acknowledge?

我相信大家都会承认这些挑战的存在——

Rising inequality, the climate crisis, demographic aging.

不平等加剧，气候危机以及人口老龄化。

For some, the answer is a universal basic income,

有人认为解决办法是全民基本收入，

a UBI.

既 UBI。

Now, despite being a millennial,

尽管我是千禧一代，

and still petrified when I look at my bank balance,

至今仍很害怕查看银行余额，

I'm not a fan.

但我不认同 UBI。

And the reason is an affordable UBI is ineffective,

因为政府能负担的 UBI 没有效果，

and an effective UBI is unaffordable.

有效果的 UBI 政府负担不起。

My proposal, instead, is universal basic services,

我的提议是，全民基本服务，

UBS.

既 UBS。

These are services which are universally available,

这将是一些普遍存在的服务，

free at the point of consumption

全民免费使用，

and paid for through progressive taxation,

国家通过累进税制来支付，

a bit like the NHS in the UK.

类似英国的国家医疗服务体系 NHS。

I propose four of these universal basic services --

我提议四项全民基本服务——

health care, housing, transport and education.

医疗，住房，交通以及教育。

Why these four?

为什么是这四项呢？

Housing, because you can't focus on long-term problem-solving,

住房方面，你很难专注于解决重大问题，

or making something of yourself,

或者专注于成就自己，

if you have to move every 12 months. Believe me, I know.

如果你必须每年搬迁一次， 我深有体会。

Health care, because the basis of everything else

医疗保健，因为一切的基础

is physical and mental well-being.

就是身体和精神健康。

Education, because you can't be of service to your community

教育方面，因为你无法服务你的社区，

if you don't have skills,

如果没有一技之长；

and we need to start acknowledging that an educated society is a public good.

我们要承认，一个受过教育的社会 是一种公共利益。

People training as dentists, as midwives, as engineers --

人们接受培训成为牙医，助产士，工程师

hey, as accountants.

以及会计师，

We need those people.

我们需要这些人才。

Society needs those people, with those skills,

社会需要这些具有技能的人才，

to not just thrive, but to survive,

不止是为了发展，更是为了生存，

and we all benefit from them having those skills.

人人都会从他们拥有的技能中受益。

Transport, because you can have the skills,

交通方面，因为即使你拥有技能，

you can have the housing,

拥有住房，

but location can remain a constraint on access to opportunity.

但地理位置依然可能限制你获取机遇。

So, you might agree with me so far,

到目前为止，你可能同意我的看法，

you might say, "Aaron, I get it.

你可能说，“亚伦（Aaron），我明白了。

Market failure exists, it's a thing.

自由市场有时力所不能及，

And yeah, OK, the state should intervene in some areas, fine.

政府确实应该介入某些领域，

But why universal?

但为什么要惠及所有人？

Surely, we should focus scarce resources on those that need help the most."

我们应将稀有资源 分配给那些最需要帮助的。“

It turns out that two academics gave a pretty good answer to that,

原来，有两位学者已给出精彩回答，

20 years ago.

那是在 20 年前。

令人惊奇的是，他们都是瑞典人。

Surprise, they were Swedish.

And they found that countries with universal welfare systems

他们发现有普惠福利制度的国家，

saw the lowest rates of hardship, the lowest rates of inequality,

贫困率、不平等程度最低，

and universal welfare systems commanded the broadest possible consent.

且普惠福利制度获得了最广泛的认同。

If you want to see the citation, it's Walter Korpi and Joachim Palme.

如果想看原文， 作者是 Walter Korpi 和 Joachim Palme，

Go on Google Scholar, find it.

在谷歌学术上可以找到。

Now, how does that work? Why is that the case?

那么普惠福利制度是如何运作的？ 为什么它如此成功？

Well, it turns out that universal welfare systems,

原来，普惠福利制度，

because of the nature of how they work,

因为它的运作性质，

have less bureaucracy.

官僚主义就比较少见。

Because they don't employ means testing, there's less stigma attached,

由于不采用经济情况调查， 不会让人感觉那么羞辱，

so the people accessing resources actually use them,

因此人们就会真正去利用这些资源，

as opposed to what we get with means testing,

与我们这里采用经济情况调查的正相反，

where you feel like you shouldn't be doing that.

在这里，你往往觉得不该寻求援助。

And importantly,

更重要的是，

they have the buy-in of that political class

普惠福利制度得到了一个政治阶层的支持

that is all-important in democracy,

民主制度中至关重要的政治阶层——

the middle class.

中产阶级。

There's a reason why the NHS in Britain

这就是为什么 NHS 在英国

is still around after 80 years, and it's so loved.

已经存续 80 年了，仍然倍受喜爱。

It's because everybody gets to use it.

因为 NHS 惠及所有人，

It's part of the national fabric.

是英国国家结构的一部分，

It’s part of our shared social conversation and space.

是我们共享社会对话和空间的一部分，

It’s something that belongs to all of us in the UK,

是属于我们所有英国人的，

and we're very proud of it.

我们为之感到非常骄傲。

So if you want welfare services which address hardship,

所以，如果你希望 拥有福利政策以消灭贫困、

reduce inequality,

减少不平等，

are effective, efficient and broadly liked,

充分有效且广受欢迎，

make them universal.

那就让这项福利政策普惠大众。

"OK, I like universal services, but how do we pay for this?"

“我喜欢普惠服务，但资金从哪里来？”

In a word, tax.

一句话，税收。

Hardly reinventing the wheel, I know.

我知道，这并非什么创新。

In the United States, in the 1950s, the top rate of tax was 90 percent.

在 20 世纪 50 年代， 美国税率最高可达 90%。

Today, it's 37 percent.

而现在只是 37%。

In the UK, for much of Margaret Thatcher's premiership,

在撒切尔夫人任期中的大部分时间，

the top rate of tax was 60 percent.

英国的最高税率是 60%。

Today, it's 45 percent.

现在是 45%。

Dwight Eisenhower and the Iron Lady -- hardly two radical Marxists.

艾森豪威尔和铁娘子撒切尔， 他们并非是激进马克思主义者。

And then, there's things like financial transactions tax.

那时还征收了金融交易税等。

All the outrage, in fact,

事实上，

that we tax work more than we tax wealth,

我们对劳动所得比对财富征的税还多，

which is astonishing.

令人震惊。

In the UK and the US,

在英国和美国，

capital gains are taxed lower than incomes.

财产增值税要低于收入所得税。

How the hell does that work? Talk about a rigged system,

怎么回事？这就是被蓄意操纵的体制。

Then, there's the issue around the technology revolution.

然后，还有围绕科技变革的问题。

And this is a big reason why I like universal basic services.

这也是我喜欢全民基本服务的重要原因。

If I'm right,

如果我的认知正确，

then the trends in the 21st century are deflationary.

那 21 世纪的趋势就是通缩。

Energy, information, labor are getting cheap,

能源、信息、劳动力越来越便宜，

they're deflationary,

它们都是通缩的，

and they'll remain deflationary for a very long time.

而且在未来很长时间内都会如此。

Hard to believe, I know, in 2022, when you're filling up at the tank,

很难相信，在 2022 年， 当你在给汽车加油时。。。

but renewables trends are clear,

如今可再生能源的趋势已经很明晰了，

and that will be the case for a very long time.

而且这种情况会持续很长时间。

Now, do we want those trends to underpin universal basic services,

那我们是否希望这些新趋势 成为全民基本服务的基石，

or prop up shareholders,

或是提振股票，

or create the basis for new monopolistic models?

或成为新的垄断模式的基础？

Finally, on the climate crisis,

最后，关于气候危机，

another reason for universal basic services.

这是另一个支持全民基本服务的理由。

A UBI would be an extraordinary amount of money to spend.

全民基本收入制度需要大量资金支撑，

And yet, I don't see quite what it would do

但我没看到它的效应在哪里，

in terms of transitioning our economies away from fossil fuels,

尤其是帮助经济转型摆脱化石燃料方面。

which again,

相信大家都意识到能源转型须尽快实现，

I'm sure everybody in this room acknowledges,

we have to do pretty damn quickly.

如果实行全民基本服务，

Meanwhile, with universal basic services,

we can put a post-carbon agenda

我们可以将后碳议题置于

at the heart of education, health care, transport and housing,

教育、医疗、交通和住房的核心，

rapidly decarbonizing our economies.

快速实现经济脱碳。

And look, to move away from fossil fuels,

你看，为了摆脱化石燃料，

we need to do the one thing that market fundamentalists hate,

我们要做一件市场原教旨主义者憎恶的事，

and that's called planning.

那就是计划。

So, cast your minds to 2100,

所以，请畅想 2100 年，

and a world after capitalism as we know it.

以及一个资本主义之后的世界。

You go to your job four hours a day in an elderly care center,

你每天去养老院上四个小时的班，

one of the few labor-intensive industries that's still around.

这是仅存的少数劳动密集型行业之一。

Afterwards, you go for lunch, you see your friends

下班后，你去吃午饭、见朋友，

and you talk about taking that holiday in some rewilded forest somewhere,

谈论去一些重新野化的森林度假，

go see some bison and some bears.

去看些野牛、熊，

And you talk about wanting to study for that third college degree,

或者谈论你想去读的第三个大学学位，

this time in medicine,

这次是学医，

because you're working with older people

因为你的工作是照顾老人，

and you're fascinated by the sphere, the area,

你很感兴趣寿命延长行业，

the growth industry of radical life extension.

它所涉及的领域和高速增长。

And hey, your first two degrees didn't cost a thing,

对了，你前两个学位一分钱没花，

and that second one, East Asian Literature,

而且第二个东亚文学的学位

gave you a whole new perspective on life.

给了你看待生活的全新视角，

You really loved Japanese poetry after that.

在此之后你非常热爱日本诗歌。

Pretty good, right?

非常美好，不是吗？

You get a notification as you leave that lunch.

你吃完午饭的时候收到了通知，

Your local health care clinic's saying you need to go for a quick checkup.

社区诊所说你需要去做一个快速检查，

You go down there, you take a bus --

你就乘坐一辆巴士去了，

free, electric, self-driving.

巴士不仅免费，还是电力和自动驾驶的。

The local bus co-op uses a powerful predictive algorithm

当地巴士合作社采用高效的预测算法，

to determine how much supply is needed at what time

来确定在不同时间有多少乘车需求，

for optimal efficiency and effectiveness.

从而达到最佳效率和效果。

Compare that to rush hour in LA or London.

和现在洛杉矶或伦敦的交通高峰期比，

Big difference -- I know which I prefer.

大相径庭，我很清楚我更喜欢哪种。

You end up at the local health clinic.

你到达社区诊所，

They say, "Look, it's time for liquid biopsy.

他们说，“该做液体活检了，

You missed your checkup last week."

你上周没来检查。”

You go in -- stage zero cancer.

你检查了——零期癌症，

No problem, some pills will fix that.

问题不大，吃点药就行。

At every stage of this narrative,

在这个叙述的每一段，

the health care, the transport, the college degrees, the elderly care,

医疗、交通、学位、养老，

we've seen universal basic services in action.

我们都能看到全民基本服务的作用。

Universally available, free at the point of consumption

所有人都能受惠，免费使用服务，

and paid for through progressive taxation.

政府通过累进税收来支付。

Now, this might sound utopian.

好吧，这听起来像乌托邦。

Personally, I think it's technically easier to do

但我个人认为，比起殖民火星，

than colonizing Mars,

从技术上来说这更容易实现。

but our society somehow thinks differently.

但社会大众不这么想。

But it's not utopian.

可是这并非乌托邦。

In fact, in many ways, this world resembles our own.

事实上，在很多方面 这个未来世界都与当下现实相似。

There are still markets for many, many things.

这个世界中还会有许多市场，

The state isn't involved in making chocolate bars

国家不会介入制作巧克力棒、

or socks or silk ties.

袜子或丝绸领带；

But it is the central player

但它是核心参与者，

in these four things we all need for liberty:

为我们提供这四项 追求自由必不可少的服务：

housing, education, health care and transport.

住房、教育、医疗和交通。

And to say it's no utopia means bad things still happen, yes.

说这并非乌托邦是指坏事依然会发生,

There are fallings out, there's personal enmity,

会有矛盾、私人恩怨，

there are love affairs, you fall in and out of love.

但也会有爱情，坠入爱河，然后失恋，

Often, falling in love is worse, it's more dangerous.

通常，陷入爱情更糟，更危险。

These things still happen,

这些事情都会发生，

but they're better than homelessness,

但它们远好过无家可归，

than being unable to pay for your insulin,

好过无力支付胰岛素，

or failing to address the climate crisis as a species.

好过无法解决气候危机。

It’s time we lived up to those glorious words:

是时候践行我们那些宏伟理念了：

life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

生命、自由、追求幸福。

And recognize that, for the majority of the global population,

对于世界上绝大多数人来说，

the pursuit of happiness is impossible.

追求幸福是不可能的，

It's downright illusory,

是彻头彻尾的幻想，

unless they have access to universal basic services.

除非他们得到全民基本服务。

This is the way by which we guarantee liberty for all

全民基本服务是我们保证人人自由、

and address the great challenges of the 21st century --

解决 21 世纪重大挑战的唯一途径，

the climate crisis, inequality, demographic aging --

这些挑战包括气候危机、 不平等、人口老龄化。

whilst leveraging these remarkable technologies

该途径可以通过利用那些非凡的技术，

that the ingenuity of our species has created.

富于创造的人类发明的技术来实现。

I don't think there's another way of addressing those challenges.

我认为解决那些挑战别无他法。

I think anybody who thinks otherwise is delusional, frankly.

谁要是不这么认为，那就是在妄想。

But all that means we're going to have to do something

这也就意味着我们需要做些事情，

which, for the political establishment and status-quo thinking,

那是政治体制以及现状思考

has been anathema for decades.

几十年来一直忌讳的事情，

And that means returning the state --

就是让国家回到——

yes, the state --

没错，正是国家——

to the center stage of our economic and social lives.

回到我们经济和社会生活的中心。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Chris Anderson: Thank you, Aaron.

Chris Anderson: 谢谢你，亚伦。

I think we have a secret questioner somewhere,

我想我们有位神秘提问者，

in the form of Maja Bosnic, who is a public finance expert.

她叫玛雅·博斯尼奇（Maja Bosnic）， 是位公共财政专家，

She spoke recently at TEDWomen.

她最近在 TEDWomen 做了演讲。

Maja, what's your question?

玛雅，你的问题是什么？

Maja Bosnic: Yes, thank you very much.

Maja Bosnic：谢谢，

So my question is basically related to resistances.

我的问题和抵制相关。

I work with public services,

我从事公共服务工作，

and I work towards making them more gender-responsive,

致力于让公共服务更能促进性别平等，

so I know a thing or two about resistances.

所以我对抵制有一些了解。

So I wanted to ask you, what do you see as the biggest resistances?

我想问问，你认为最大的抵制是什么？

And in which one, or maybe some of these four

来自你的四项服务中的

that you are mentioning?

哪一项，或几项？

谢谢。

Thank you.

Aaron Bastani: 很好的问题，谢谢。 对我来说，应该是住房。

Aaron Bastani: Great question, thank you. For me, it’s got to be housing.

Because, particularly in the Anglo-American economies,

因为，尤其在英美经济中，

我们有一个房产投机性投资的

we have a growth model built upon speculative investment

增长模型。

in housing assets.

事实是，像英国和美国这些国家——

The reality is, for the likes of the UK and the US --

the Canadian property market is probably quite similar --

加拿大房产市场可能也很相似——

we need to have something akin to what Japan has seen

我们很需要一个类似日本

over the last 25 years,

过去 25 年的模式，

which is, effectively, flat house price increases.

那就是，实际的房价上涨是——

Sorry, I should phrase that better -- zero percent growth in house prices.

抱歉，我应该表述得更好—— 实际的房价上涨是 0%。

So wages can catch up.

这样，工资的增长就能赶上房价。

I saw an amazing statistic, actually, the other day in the UK,

那天我在英国看到一个惊人的数据，

which showed that a majority of homeowners in the UK

显示绝大多数英国房屋业主

are happy to have zero growth on house prices.

乐于看到房价零增长。

And that makes sense.

这很合理。

Why would you want your house to gain in value?

为什么你会希望你的房子增值呢？

All it means is you buy another house,

这只会意味着你买另一栋房子时，

which has relatively gone up as well.

它的房价也相对上涨了。

And I think people acknowledge that this isn’t working

我想大家都承认房价上涨

for people who rent, who don't own the assets.

不利于没有房产的人和租房者。

And I would rather keep that price flat,

我宁愿房价不变，

and, you know, have more people included in our economy.

以使更多人参与到我们的经济中来。

But that's, I think, the big structural challenge --

这是我认为最大的结构性挑战，

we would have to take on speculative investment in housing.

我们需要应对房产投机性投资。

CA: Thank you, Maja.

CA: 谢谢你，玛雅。

Aaron, I'm really taken by this argument for UBS,

亚伦，我真的很认同 UBS，

partly because, just structurally,

部分原因是，在结构上，

some of those things naturally get organized better

很多东西自然而然地会组织得更好，

if there's only one of them, not a bunch in competition.

如果只有一家独大，而非一群竞争，

You compare US health care capitalism with something like the NHS

你将美国的资本主义医疗体系和 NHS

or the state things, which, for all their faults,

或其他国营项目相比，虽有种种缺陷，

seem to deliver equally good or better health care

后者似乎提供了同样或更好的医疗保障，

for, like, half the money.

资金投入却只是前者的一半。

Transport, you can make the same argument.

至于交通，也是同样道理。

But have you cost it out?

但你有没有算过成本？

To roll out all these four, that's a massive investment.

要想实现四项服务，需要巨额投资。

Have you costed it?

你算过吗?

AB: I haven't costed it.

AB: 我没算过，

University College London has costed universal basic services,

但伦敦大学学院（UCL） 算过 UBS 的费用。

and they had six -- they included food, which is pretty ambitious.

他们算了 6 项服务， 其中包括食物，很是雄心勃勃。

In the US private health care system, 16 percent of GDP's spent on health care.

美国私人医疗系统的花费是 国内生产总值（GDP）的 16%，

In the UK, it's 10 percent.

英国的 NHS 只是 10 %。

And we have longer life expectancy,

我们英国人也更长寿，

fewer women dying in childbirth,

更少妇女死于分娩，

lower infant mortality.

更低婴儿死亡率。

So clearly, something is going right.

所以，这是正确的走向。

你可能会说，“NHS 经费短缺”。

And you might say, "The NHS is underfunded."

增加 1 - 2%的 GDP 投入就行， 而且，我们已有普遍的医疗覆盖。

Bump up by one or two percent. And of course, we have universal coverage.

所以，这是对公共医疗系统 普惠论点的有力支持，

So there's a strong argument there for public health care,

尤其从效率的角度来看。

from an efficiency perspective --

(Applause)

（掌声）

AB: Thank you.

AB: 谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）

And I would respond with this, in regards to elderly care.

关于养老方面，我会这样回应。

你看看因为人口老龄化危机

If you look at the crisis of demographic aging,

and elderly care that’s coming down the line

以及即将到来的养老问题，

because of lower birth replacement rates of an aging population.

都是人口老龄化 导致出生替代率下降而造成的。

And I want one of these geniuses to come up with us living to 200.

我还指望某个天才想出 让我们活到 200 岁的办法呢。

But if that happens, we then create a crisis of elderly care,

但如果真的能实现， 那我们就会有养老危机。

and the reality is, it's not that we can't afford to do UBS,

事实是，并非我们负担不起 UBS，

a UBS of elderly care, if that happens --

覆盖了养老服务的 UBS,

we can't afford not to do it.

而是我们承受不起没有 UBS 的后果。

Because I then return to the NHS point about efficiency,

回想一下前面讲的 NHS 的高效，

particularly in elderly care.

尤其是在养老方面，

If you don't have that as a UBS, you're in big trouble, in my view.

如果没有 UBS， 我们将陷入更大的危机。

CA: 谢谢你在辩论中的精彩答辩.

CA: Aaron, thanks for an incredibly compelling contribution to the debate.

AB: 感谢你。

AB: Thank you, cheers.

(Applause)

(掌声)