The Climate Solutions Worth Funding — Now | Jonathan Foley | TED

翻译人员: Lening Xu 校对人员: Yip Yan Yeung

So I'm a climate scientist

我是一名气候科学家，

and I've devoted my entire life to this topic.

一辈子致力于气候研究。

Why on Earth would anybody want to do that?

为什么有人愿意那样做？

Well, it's because science can help us.

因为科学可以帮助我们。

It was, after all, science that first told us

科学首先告诉我们，

that this planet was warming

这个星球正在变暖，

and we were the cause of that.

而我们就是导致变暖的原因。

But science can also help us find solutions to the crisis.

但科学也可以帮助我们 寻求解决危机的办法。

And we need this more than ever.

而我们比以往任何时候都更需要它们。

Because right now,

现在，

everybody seems to be telling us about their favorite climate solutions.

似乎每个人都在推销 自己偏好的气候问题解决方案。

There's so much noise, so much confusion,

噪音太大，混乱太多，

all these ideas out there.

所有想法都浮出水面。

How do we sort it out?

我们到底该如何解决问题？

How do we figure out what works and what doesn't

我们如何判断哪些有效，哪些无效？

and where we should focus?

我们应如何聚焦？

Well, this is where science can help us.

这就是科学可以帮助我们的地方。

We can do what's called a meta analysis,

我们可以进行“元分析”，

where we collect all the evidence,

收集所有证据、所有数据，

all the data, and look at it

然后对其进行研究，

and figure out which solutions are the biggest,

找出哪些解决方案影响最大，

which ones are the most effective and which ones are ready to go now.

哪些解决方案最有效， 哪些方案已准备就绪。

And here's the good news.

这是个好消息。

Evidence tells us what we should focus on.

证据告诉我们应该关注什么。

And there are lots of good climate solutions available right now,

现在有许多很好的 气候解决方案可供选择，

ready to go.

随时可用。

Let's focus on these

让我们专注这些，

and less on the ones that are kind of a distraction right now.

而不是那些分散注意力的方案。

Science can also help us figure out the economics of climate solutions.

科学还可以帮助我们 测算气候解决方案的经济性。

And what we can do is build what's called a cost curve,

我们要做的是构建成本曲线，

where we stack up climate solutions from left to right,

从左到右堆叠气候解决方案，

from the cheapest ones all the way to the most expensive.

从最便宜的到最昂贵的。

And here's the amazing thing.

这是最神奇的事情。

When we do that,

当我们这样做时，

我们会发现这些气候解决方案中， 约有 80％ 其实非常便宜。

we find out that about 80 percent of these climate solutions

are actually really cheap.

They're cheaper than what we do already.

它们比我们现在的做法便宜。

They're cheaper than fossil fuels,

它们比化石燃料便宜，

they're cheaper than polluting industries,

比污染行业便宜，

they're cheaper than destructive agriculture.

比破坏性农业便宜。

And these cheap climate solutions are the best bargains in human history.

这些廉价的气候解决方案 是人类历史上最好的便宜货。

They save money now and prevent disaster in the future.

节约现在的开支， 防范未来的灾难。

And we should be deploying the hell out of these things.

我们应该有效利用这些方案。

So science has shown us the “what” of addressing the climate crisis:

科学向我们展示了 应对气候危机的“意义”：

What solutions we have, what they’re going to cost,

有哪些解决方案， 它们的成本是多少，

what we can do.

我们可以做什么。

But we also need help with the how, when, where,

但我们仍需了解如何、

何时、何地、以何种方式， 才能最好地实施这些方案，

in what ways do we best deploy these climate solutions

to be the most effective.

以使其最有效。

So let's go build that science of how.

让我们来构建科学的架构。

To do that, we've got to go back to the basics.

为此，我们必须回归基础。

To stop climate change,

为了阻止气候变化，

the biggest thing we've got to do is bend that big red curve,

我们要做的最重要事情 就是扭转那条巨大的红色曲线，

the emissions of greenhouse gases that are causing the problem

即温室气体排放，这是问题的根源。

in the first place.

And we've got to bend it really hard and really fast.

我们必须强力、迅速地弯曲它，

We've got to cut emissions drastically in the coming decade

我们必须在未来十年中大幅减少排放，

and keep cutting them and keep cutting them

并在本世纪中叶继续减少排放。

through the middle of the century.

But we're also going to need a little bit of carbon removal

我们也需要一点碳去除 解决剩余的排放问题。

to address any remaining emissions.

And together, a whole lot of emissions cuts

总之，大量碳减排和少量碳去除，

and a little bit of carbon removal will help us get to net zero

在阻止气候变化进一步加剧时， 帮助我们实现净零排放。

when we stop climate change from going any farther.

But in all of this work,

但是在所有工作中，

the most important variable

最重要的变量，

and the one that people often forget is time.

人们经常忘记的变量是——时间。

That's because climate change is a cumulative problem.

气候变化是一个累积性问题。

It builds up over time.

它会随着时间的推移而累积。

The temperatures we're seeing on Earth today

地球如今的气温

are due to the buildup of greenhouse gases

是由于过去 150 年来 温室气体的积聚所致。

over the last 150 years.

Well, it turns out that the problem is cumulative

事实证明，问题是累积性的，

and climate solutions are too.

气候解决方案也是如此。

Let me show you what I mean.

我来解释一下，

If we cut emissions now into the next decade,

如果从现在到下一个十年减少排放，

we can prevent that much carbon, that whole blue area,

可以阻止那么多的碳， 整个蓝色区域，进入大气层。

from ever going in the atmosphere.

And if these emissions cuts are permanent,

如果这些减排是永久性的，

then we keep adding to it the next decade

我们将在未来十年和 之后的十年里继续增加减排量，

and the decade after that,

building up to a huge impact in stopping climate change.

对遏制气候变化产生巨大影响。

That's incredible.

这太不可思议了。

This decades emissions does that much work in stopping climate change.

几十年的减排为阻止气候变化 发挥了很大的作用。

Well, we can cut emissions again in the 2030s

我们可以在 2030 年代再次减排，

and again in the 2040s,

在 2040 年代再次减排，

but the longer we wait,

但是等待的时间越长，

the less effective these actions are going to be.

行动的效果就越差。

They simply have less time to work on the atmosphere.

它们在大气层上作用的时间就越少。

Well, carbon removal is important too, but it faces an uphill battle

碳去除也很重要， 这是一场艰苦的战斗，

because it starts basically at zero

基本上从零开始，达到所需的 千兆吨规模需要数年时间。

and it's going to take years to go to the gigaton scale that's required.

So it is important,

这很重要，但总体而言， 它的累积影响很小。

but overall it's total cumulative impact is pretty small.

And when we do the math correctly

当我们准确地进行数学运算，

and we do what's called the integral

通过积分或曲线下的面积 来评估气候解决方案时，

or the area under the curve in assessing climate solutions,

we find something kind of extraordinary.

会有不同寻常的发现。

Emissions cuts are really most of the story here.

减排就是这里的重头戏。

Ninety-six percent of what it takes to get to net zero is cutting emissions.

净零排放的 96％ 通过减排实现。

And three quarters of this comes from the first decades of emissions cuts.

四分之三来自前几十年的减排。

That's amazing.

太神奇了。

Early action matters a lot.

尽早采取行动非常重要。

Carbon removal will be part of the story, but overall, its impact is pretty small,

碳去除实现了一部分， 但总体而言，其影响很小，

about four percent.

约为 4％ 。

What this tells us is there's a time value of carbon,

这揭示了碳的时间价值，

just like the time value of money.

就像金钱的时间价值一样。

Early investments pay off in the long run.

归根到底，早期投资更有效。

It also tells us about the kinds of solutions we need

它还揭示了我们所需的解决方案， 以及它们如何随着时间推移而展现。

and how they unfold over time.

For example, we're going to need a hell of a lot

例如，我们有大量的环境问题 需要解决方案来紧急刹车。

of emergency brake climate solutions.

Solutions that have no delays

无任何延迟且立即作用于 大气层的解决方案。

and instantly work on the atmosphere.

Things like plugging methane leaks or stopping deforestation

诸如堵住甲烷泄漏或停止森林砍伐，

or big gains in energy efficiency in today's infrastructure,

或大幅提高当今基础设施的 能源效率之类的事项，

while we build out tomorrow's infrastructure,

当我们建设未来的基础设施时，

and we're going to need a lot of new infrastructure and power systems

我们需要大量新的基础设施、 电力系统、交通设施和建筑物。

and transportation and buildings.

But infrastructure takes time.

但基础建设需要时间。

We also need nature-based climate solutions like planting trees,

我们还需要基于自然的气候解决方案， 比如植树、恢复生态系统。

restoring ecosystems.

But trees and soils take decades to build up carbon

但树木和土壤需要数十年的时间 才能积聚碳，而且会推迟。

and will be delayed.

And of course, we will need some new technologies.

当然，我们需要一些新技术。

But these might not show up for a long time,

但这些可能很长一段时间都不会出现，

and the longer we wait,

而我们等待的时间越长，

they are much less effective.

它们的效果也会低得多。

So when we think about climate solutions,

因此，当我们考虑气候解决方案时，

we need to make sure we emphasize the solutions that are ready to go now

我们需要确保并强调 已经准备就绪的解决方案，

so they can start building up their impact over time and not wait.

这样它们就可以随着时间的推移 开始产生影响力，而不必等待。

This is why we say now is better than new

这就是为什么我们说 当下的比新的更好，

and time is more important than tech.

时间比技术更重要。

Science can help us in other ways too.

科学也可以通过其他方式帮助我们。

It can help us geographically focus our efforts

它可以帮助我们在地理上集中精力，

to make sure we're doing them in the most important places.

确保我们在最重要的地方发力。

Science and big data can, for example,

例如，科学和大数据可以指出 甲烷羽流涌入大气层的位置。

point out where methane plumes are pouring into the atmosphere.

These are satellite images showing specific pipelines

这些卫星图像显示了使甲烷 涌入天空的那些管道和炼油厂，

and refineries where methane is pouring into the sky,

导致了气候变化。

causing climate change.

Let's go there and fix these leaks

让我们去那里修复这些漏洞，

and make sure that they're not contributing to climate change anymore.

确保它们不再影响气候变化。

And we can use big data to target other climate interventions,

我们可以使用大数据来分析 其他气候干预措施，

whether it's deforestation

无论是森林砍伐， 还是关闭世界上最肮脏的发电厂，

or closing the dirtiest power plants in the world,

to make sure that every action counts

以确保每一项行动都有效，

and can be most impactful right away.

并且可以立即产生最大的效果。

Science can also make sure that we look for solutions that help people,

科学还可以确保我们 寻找解决方案，帮助人们，

especially the most vulnerable and poorest people on Earth.

尤其是地球上最脆弱和最贫穷的人。

And I can't think of a better example than looking at fossil fuels.

我想不出比研究化石燃料更好的例子了。

We know that fossil fuels are the biggest contributor to climate change,

我们知道化石燃料是 导致气候变化的最大原因，

but they're also the biggest contributor to air pollution,

它们也是目前导致空气污染、 颗粒物、雾霾的主要因素。

particulate matter and smog, right now.

And this air pollution is killing people.

这种空气污染正在夺去人们的生命。

Harvard epidemiologists have estimated

哈佛大学流行病学家估计，

between eight and nine million people a year

每年有 800 至 900 万的过早死亡，

are dying prematurely because of the air pollution

是由化石燃料导致的空气污染造成的。

caused by fossil fuels right now.

That's more than warfare, guns and tobacco combined.

这比战争、枪支和烟草的总和还要多。

So when we phase out fossil fuels,

因此，当我们逐步淘汰化石燃料时，

not only do we save us from a climate crisis,

我们不仅可以摆脱气候危机，

it also saves us from a health crisis here today.

还可以摆脱当今的健康危机。

This is a win-win for the world,

这对全世界来说是双赢的，

especially through the lens of equity and justice.

尤其是从公平和正义的角度来看。

We can finally then use science

我们最终可以利用科学 来协调所有这些不同的事物，

to kind of orchestrate all of these different things,

to make sure that we're aligning our efforts with the atmosphere

确保我们的努力与解决 大气层和碳排放的问题保持一致。

and with the carbon problem.

So we have to do lots of different things.

我们必须做很多不同的事情。

How do we know how to do them in the right kind of proportions,

我们如何知道怎样以正确的比例，

and build a portfolio of actions that works best?

建立最有效的行动组合？

Well, again, science can help us out here.

再说一遍，科学可以帮助我们。

This portfolio here shows us what we need to do,

这个组合向我们展示了需要做什么，

mainly cutting emissions in those big six sectors

主要是减少电力、食品和工业 等六大行业的排放。

like electricity and food and industry.

And also count on a little bit of carbon removal to close the final gap.

也可以依靠一点点的碳去除 来缩小最后的差距。

So this is what we need to do to get to net zero.

这是我们实现净零排放所需要做的。

How does that compare to what we're actually doing?

这和我们的实际行为相比如何？

Well, not so great.

嗯，不太好。

When we look at the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States

看看美国的《通胀削减法案》， 我们把资金投向何处，

of where we're putting our money,

or even more disturbingly,

更令人不安的是，

where the private sector is putting money,

私营部门在哪里投入资金，

in this case, venture capital going into climate solutions.

在本例中， 风险投资涉入气候解决方案。

Venture capital put two thirds of its money into one technology:

风险投资将其三分之二的 资金投入了一项技术：

Electric vehicles and scooters.

电动汽车和踏板车。

That's two thirds of the money

这是三分之二的资金用于 基本上是百分之五的解决方案。

going to what's basically a five-percent solution.

This kind of mismatch between our capital and the carbon

从长远来看，需要解决资本投入 与碳排放问题之间的不匹配，

needs to be fixed in the long run,

so we make sure we put our resources in the best possible places.

我们要确保将资源 投入到尽可能有效的地方。

At the end of the day, though, science gives us six pillars for effective action.

归根结底，科学为我们提供了 采取有效行动的六大支柱。

First, we've got to make sure that solutions are based in evidence,

首先，我们必须确保 解决方案以证据为基础，

not just hype and rhetoric.

而不仅仅是炒作和言论。

We also need to make sure climate solutions are cheap

我们还需确保解决方案成本低廉，

so we can do a lot of them.

这样我们才能采纳更多。

And we should look for solutions that are ready to go now,

我们应该寻找已准备就绪的解决方案，

so they have the maximum impact possible over time.

这样它们才能随着时间的 推移产生最大的效果。

We can also geographically focus our efforts

我们还可以在地理上集中精力，

to make sure they're most impactful

确保它们最有效力，

and ensure that they are helping us through the lens of equity and justice

并确保它们从公平和正义的 角度帮助我们，

and are truly beneficial to people, too.

也真正造福于人们。

We also, though, can align all of this so our portfolios are lined up

但是，我们也可以调整所有这些，

使投资组合与大气中的碳保持一致。

with the carbon in the atmosphere.

In the end, if we do these things, we can still stop climate change,

总而言之，如果我们做了这些事情， 我们依然可以阻止气候变化，

but only if we do them all.

但前提是我们全力以赴。

We still have a narrow window of opportunity to stop climate change,

我们阻止气候变化的机会之窗仍然很窄，

but we've got to make every day,

但我们必须让每一天、

every move and every dollar count like never before.

每一个动作和每一美元 都比以往任何时候都更有意义。

But if we redouble our efforts and truly listen to the science

但是，如果我们加倍努力，

真正倾听科学的意见， 努力成为最优秀的人，

and step up to be the best people we can be,

I know we can solve this problem.

我认为我们能解决这个问题。

And with your help, we will.

在你的帮助下，我们可以。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）