Why Violence Is Rising With Global Temperatures | Peter Schwartzstein | TED

翻译人员: 璐Lu 王WANG 校对人员: Bruce Wang

When, in late 2013,

2013年底

ISIS recruiters first targeted the Tharthar area of central Iraq,

伊斯兰国首次针对伊拉克中部的 塞尔萨尔湖地区开展招募工作

they arrived with a grimly effective plan in hand.

他们手握一份有效到可怕的招募计划

They went for some of the most drought-battered villagers,

他们选择了一些受干旱影响最严重的村民，

conscious of how hard they would find it to resist the cash.

因为他们深知这些村民很难抗拒金钱的诱惑

They made some of the most forceful pitches

他们向那些农民展开了强有力的游说

to those whose small fields looked extra pitiful

这些农民手中小块的土地

after consecutive years of weak rains and fiercer heat.

在连年少雨和愈演愈烈的高温下状态很糟

Aware of the depth of distrust of government

在经历了这么多年的冲突后

after so many years of conflict,

人们对政府极度不信任

recruiters even got adept at casting these conditions

招聘人员甚至已经善于把这些情况

as a product of state action.

编造成政府行动的产物

That drought?

那场干旱？

One villager remembered an ISIS member telling him

一位村民记得有一位伊斯兰国成员告诉他

that it was because of government scientists'

这是因为政府科学家操纵了天气

manipulation of the weather,

just another immiserating middle finger from authorities out to get them.

这无非是当局又一次挑衅似地 把他们推向贫困的深渊

ISIS varied its tactics elsewhere in Iraq and Syria.

伊斯兰国在伊拉克和叙利亚的 其他地方使用的手法不一

Sometimes, they preyed on the most shabbily dressed men

有时，他们在禽畜市场

at livestock markets.

搜寻那些最破衣烂衫的人

On other occasions, they doled out gifts of food and cash

在其他场合， 他们在粮食歉收时分发食物和现金

just as harvests failed.

However, in focusing on farming communities,

总之，他们对农业社区的关注

they were brutally consistent.

残酷得一致

The more water-deprived the village, the more they visited it.

越是缺水的村庄，他们到访得越频繁

The poorer the farmers, the more relentless their pressure.

越是贫穷的农民，承受的压力就越大

As I ultimately concluded after years of groundwork,

经过多年的基础调查我最终得出了结论，

ideas might have jump-started the group,

这个组织可能是靠一个一时兴起的念头成立的

but it was climate-related disorder that padded its ranks

但却是气候异常帮它招了兵买了马

and helped turn it into the thousand-strong force

帮它成立了能立即部署的千人部队

it soon fielded.

I’ve spent more than a decade reporting on the links between climate and conflict.

我花了十多年的时间 报道气候与冲突之间的联系。

And working out of umpteen countries and conflict zones,

在许多国家和冲突地区工作的过程中，

I've come to see that there are increasingly few forms of violence

我逐渐发现和气候问题几乎无关的暴力问题

that don't have some sort of climate angle.

越来越少

Take piracy in coastal Bangladesh.

以孟加拉国沿海的海盗问题为例

These pirate crews are making a killing from kidnapping fishermen

这些海盗通过绑架 越来越多的渔民到他们的老巢

who are sailing in ever-greater numbers

大发横财

into their lairs.

Many of these fishermen are ex-farmers who’ve lost their lands to rising seas

这些渔民中有许多曾是农民 但因为海平面上涨失去了土地

and then felt they had no choice

然后他们觉得别无选择，

but to seek an alternative living out on the water,

只能在水上寻求另一种生活方式

the dangers be damned.

哪怕危机重重

Then, there are the clashes

然后，还有非洲萨赫勒地区

between farmers and herders across Africa's Sahel.

农民和牧民之间的冲突。

Unsurprisingly, nothing good is coming from having more people with rival needs

不出所料，这种情况下好事注定不会发生： 越来越多的人

competing for shrinking resources across a poorly governed landscape

为了日渐紧缺且相互冲突的资源竞争，

that is less and less capable of providing them consistently.

而他们所处的土地缺乏政府管理， 逐渐无法再稳定地供养他们

Even within Western countries,

即使在西方国家，

certain forms of violence appear to be rising in line with temperature.

某些形式的暴力 似乎也在随着温度而上升。

According to research that colleagues and I are conducting in Greece,

根据我和我的同事在希腊进行的研究，

the hotter the summer temperatures,

夏季气温越高，

the greater the risk of women being attacked.

女性遭受袭击的风险就越大。

The examples are just coming thicker and faster.

这些例子越来越多，越来越频繁。

Now, no one is claiming that this violence or any other

现在，没有人将 这种暴力或其他任何暴力行为

is down to climate change alone.

完全归因于气候变化。

The relationship between the two is as inexact and as dependent on context

这两者之间的关系并不明晰， 且和气候变化造成的广泛影响一样

as the impacts of climate change in general.

取决于具体情况

And it’s almost always intermingling with other drivers of instability,

而且它几乎总是与其他不稳定因素混在一起

such as inequality or corruption.

例如不平等或腐败。

But we have a few, often generalizable rules.

但是有一些规律是普遍适用的

For one, climate change throws fuel on already smoldering fires.

其一就是，气候变化总是火上浇油

If you have pre-existing conflict,

如果你原先就存在冲突

deep divisions across society and unresponsive institutions,

有深刻的社会分歧或者麻木不仁的政府

then these stresses are extra liable to spark violence.

那么这些压力就更容易激发暴力。

For another, climate change eats away at the supports

另一方面，气候变化吞噬了

that we as individuals, communities and nation-states

我们作为个人、社区和民族国家在危机时期

turn to in times of crisis.

依赖的帮扶体系

For example, having lost many of their leading citizens to migration,

比如，很多杰出公民因为移民流失了

many communities now lack the wise old heads

很多社区现在都缺乏有智慧的长者

needed to keep the peace when tougher times come.

带领他们在困难来临时保持镇定

Most importantly, climate change can just be a bridge too far,

最重要的是，气候变化就像众所周知的

the proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back

压死骆驼的最后一根稻草

for many communities that are already up to their eyeballs

会让很多已经因环境变化而焦头烂额的社区

with trials of a different nature.

不堪重负

It's depressing, isn't it?

这是不是太让人沮丧了？

This is a planet that needs no more violence,

这个星球不需要更多的暴力了

and here’s the potential for an awful lot more of it.

却有许多潜在的暴力

But there is room for optimism.

但仍有乐观的余地。

Every bit of stifled warming means fewer people exposed

每阻止一分变暖都意味着更少的人会

to dangerous, possibly violent, triggering conditions.

暴露在危险、潜在暴力和会触发不良反应的环境中

Every dollar dedicated to well-conceived and effectively implemented adaptation

每一美元花在精心设计且高效实施的改良中

means more people with the tools to keep that peace

都意味着更多的人在困难来临时

when those tougher times come.

会用手中的工具维持这份和平

Ultimately, if you're not motivated by melting ice caps,

归根结底，就算你对冰盖融化不为所动

I'm sure you'll be motivated by not being shot.

我敢肯定，你也会为了免于枪击而行动起来

As faint a hopeful note as it might initially sound,

尽管这句充满希望的话乍听之下可能显得苍白无力，

the grand reality is that most of this remains in our hands.

但现实就是，大部分现状仍掌握在我们手中

Thank you.

谢谢。