Why Violence Is Rising With Global Temperatures | Peter Schwartzstein | TED

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Esther Lam

When, in late 2013,

在 2013 年末，

ISIS recruiters first targeted the Tharthar area of central Iraq,

伊斯蘭國的招募者首次將目標 鎖定在伊拉克的塔爾塔爾地區，

they arrived with a grimly effective plan in hand.

他們帶著一套有效到 讓人心寒的計畫抵達，

They went for some of the most drought-battered villagers,

他們去找受乾旱影響最大的村民，

conscious of how hard they would find it to resist the cash.

他們很清楚這些村民 會難以抗拒現金的誘惑。

They made some of the most forceful pitches

他們向那些

to those whose small fields looked extra pitiful

因為農田連年少雨且酷熱加劇

after consecutive years of weak rains and fiercer heat.

而顯得格外淒涼的小農主 提出了最具說服力的游說。

Aware of the depth of distrust of government

因為知道在多年衝突之後 人民對政府有深度的不信任，

after so many years of conflict,

recruiters even got adept at casting these conditions

招募者甚至很擅長把這些現象 說成是政府行為造成的結果。

as a product of state action.

That drought?

那乾旱怎麼來的？

One villager remembered an ISIS member telling him

有位村民記得 伊斯蘭國的成員告訴他，

that it was because of government scientists'

發生乾旱是因為 政府科學家在操縱氣象，

manipulation of the weather,

just another immiserating middle finger from authorities out to get them.

是當局為了打壓他們所施加的 另一次侮辱，要讓他們更悽慘。

在伊拉克和敘利亞的其他地方， 伊斯蘭國採用不同的戰術。

ISIS varied its tactics elsewhere in Iraq and Syria.

有時，他們的獵物是在牲畜 市場中穿著最破舊的男人。

Sometimes, they preyed on the most shabbily dressed men

at livestock markets.

On other occasions, they doled out gifts of food and cash

在其他情況下，他們會在收成 欠佳時發送食物和現金當禮物。

just as harvests failed.

However, in focusing on farming communities,

然而，在專注於農業社區方面， 他們始終如一地殘酷。

they were brutally consistent.

The more water-deprived the village, the more they visited it.

越是缺水的村莊，他們就越常造訪。

The poorer the farmers, the more relentless their pressure.

農民越貧窮，他們就越持續地施壓。

As I ultimately concluded after years of groundwork,

投入多年心力之後， 我得出的結論是，

ideas might have jump-started the group,

或許是理念啟動了這個組織，

but it was climate-related disorder that padded its ranks

但是是氣候相關的混亂 擴大了它的規模，

and helped turn it into the thousand-strong force

協助它迅速成為 能動員數千人的勢力。

it soon fielded.

I’ve spent more than a decade reporting on the links between climate and conflict.

十多年來我都在報導 氣候和衝突之間的連結。

And working out of umpteen countries and conflict zones,

在無數個國家和衝突地區工作，

I've come to see that there are increasingly few forms of violence

讓我漸漸了解，和氣候議題 無關的暴力形式已經越來越少了。

that don't have some sort of climate angle.

Take piracy in coastal Bangladesh.

以孟加拉海岸的海盜為例。

These pirate crews are making a killing from kidnapping fishermen

這些海盜成員靠著綁架越來越多闖入

who are sailing in ever-greater numbers

他們巢穴的漁民而大賺一筆。

into their lairs.

Many of these fishermen are ex-farmers who’ve lost their lands to rising seas

這些漁民當中有許多本來是農民，

因為海水上升而失去了他們的 土地，在覺得別無選擇的情況下，

and then felt they had no choice

but to seek an alternative living out on the water,

只能出海尋求替代的謀生方式，

the dangers be damned.

完全無視危險。

Then, there are the clashes

而在非洲薩赫勒各地 則有農民和牧民的衝突。

between farmers and herders across Africa's Sahel.

Unsurprisingly, nothing good is coming from having more people with rival needs

不意外的，更多的人互相爭奪資源， 都不會是件好事，

competing for shrinking resources across a poorly governed landscape

他們要在管理不善的環境中 爭取不斷減少的資源，

that is less and less capable of providing them consistently.

而這土地也越來越無法 穩定地提供資源給他們。

Even within Western countries,

即使在西方國家，

certain forms of violence appear to be rising in line with temperature.

也有某些形式的暴力 似乎隨著氣溫上升而增加。

According to research that colleagues and I are conducting in Greece,

根據我和同事在希臘進行的研究，

the hotter the summer temperatures,

夏天氣溫越高，

the greater the risk of women being attacked.

女性受到攻擊的風險就越大。

The examples are just coming thicker and faster.

這類例子層出不窮，越來越多。

Now, no one is claiming that this violence or any other

當然，沒有人聲稱這種暴力 或任何其他形式的暴力

is down to climate change alone.

單單是氣候變遷造成的。

The relationship between the two is as inexact and as dependent on context

兩者之間的關係 並不精確且會因情境而異，

as the impacts of climate change in general.

就像氣候變遷的影響一樣。

And it’s almost always intermingling with other drivers of instability,

而且它幾乎總是與其他造成 不穩定的因素混合在一起，

such as inequality or corruption.

比如不平等或貪腐。

But we have a few, often generalizable rules.

不過，我們還是可以總結出一些規律。

For one, climate change throws fuel on already smoldering fires.

首先，氣候變遷會在火上加油。

If you have pre-existing conflict,

如果一個地方已經存在衝突、

deep divisions across society and unresponsive institutions,

社會分裂嚴重且制度不健全，

then these stresses are extra liable to spark violence.

那麼，這些壓力更容易引發暴力。

For another, climate change eats away at the supports

氣候變遷會侵蝕支撐的力量，

that we as individuals, communities and nation-states

我們個人、群體，和國家在危機時期 會需要仰賴這些支撐的力量。

turn to in times of crisis.

For example, having lost many of their leading citizens to migration,

比如，由於許多領袖人物移民離開，

many communities now lack the wise old heads

許多族群失去了在艱難時期

needed to keep the peace when tougher times come.

維持和平所需的睿智的長者。

最重要的是，氣候變遷太遙不可及，

Most importantly, climate change can just be a bridge too far,

the proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back

是壓倒駱駝的最後一根稻草，

for many communities that are already up to their eyeballs

許多族群已經因為各種 不同的考驗而應接不暇了。

with trials of a different nature.

It's depressing, isn't it?

頗讓人沮喪，對吧？

This is a planet that needs no more violence,

地球不需要更多的暴力。

and here’s the potential for an awful lot more of it.

這卻潛藏著更多更多暴力的可能性。

But there is room for optimism.

然而，我們仍然可以樂觀一點。

Every bit of stifled warming means fewer people exposed

每抑制一點暖化，

to dangerous, possibly violent, triggering conditions.

就意味著更少的人 會暴露在危險甚至暴力的環境中。

Every dollar dedicated to well-conceived and effectively implemented adaptation

每投入一元到周密設計且有效執行的適應方案中

means more people with the tools to keep that peace

就有更多人擁有在艱難時期 維護和平的工具。

when those tougher times come.

Ultimately, if you're not motivated by melting ice caps,

最終，如果冰帽融化 無法成為你的動力，

I'm sure you'll be motivated by not being shot.

我相信，不想被射殺 也會成為你的動力。

As faint a hopeful note as it might initially sound,

儘管乍聽之下會覺得希望渺茫，

the grand reality is that most of this remains in our hands.

但宏觀的現實是，這大部分 仍然是我們可以掌控的。

Thank you.

謝謝。