A Faster Way to Get to a Clean Energy Future | Ramez Naam | TED

翻译人员: Yuqing Xie 校对人员: Sue Lu

It's an honor to be with you here today.

今天很荣幸在这里和大家见面。

And the message I have to deliver is a simple one,

我要讲的话题很简单，

which is that clean energy will win on cost,

那就是清洁能源将靠成本取胜，

definitively,

这点毋庸置疑，

but only if we get out of the way and allow it to be built.

但前提是我们不要阻碍， 而要支持清洁能源的建设发展。

Let's focus on that first point.

我们先看看第一点。

Let's look at the cost of clean energy technology.

看看清洁能源技术的价格。

In 1975,

1975 年，

if you were buying a solar panel per watt of power that it produced,

如果你买了一块太阳能电池板， 电池板每产生一瓦电，

it would cost you 100 US dollars.

将花费你 100 美元。

By 2020,

到 2020 年，

that cost had declined to 20 cents per watt of power.

这一成本降至每瓦 20 美分。

That's a 500-fold decline.

是原来的五百分之一。

This is unlike anything else ever seen in energy.

这在能源领域是史无前例的，

It is unlike anything else ever seen in physical infrastructure,

在基建领域也同样罕见，

and it continues today,

并且这种发展还在持续，

and it is likely to continue for decades to come.

很可能在未来几十年都将如此。

Now, this has surprised the leading experts on clean energy

这一切震惊了清洁能源的权威专家，

and even the biggest optimists on the future of clean energy.

以及对清洁能源未来最为乐观的人们。

I should know because I am one of those leading optimists.

我这么说因为我也是乐观主义者。

In 2010, the International Energy Agency,

2010 年，国际能源署（IEA），

the world's foremost and official experts on energy,

全球最重要的官方能源专家，

forecasted that the cost of solar power would drop like this.

预测太阳能价格会像这样下跌。

Now, I came from technology.

我是技术科班出身。

I was a computer scientist,

曾经是一名计算机科学家，

and so I looked at the cost of solar through the lens of Moore’s law,

我用摩尔定律推算太阳能价格，

exponential decline in cost as technology scales.

发现随着技术规模扩大， 它的价格呈指数型下降。

And so I forecast

因此我预计

that the cost of solar would drop at around five times the rate

太阳能价格的下降速度大概是

IEA 预计的五倍。

that the IEA believed it would.

Unfortunately or fortunately, I was wrong.

不幸的是，或者说幸运的是，我错了。

The cost of solar actually dropped 10 times as fast as the IEA expected

太阳能价格的下降速度 实际上是 IEA 预计的十倍，

and twice as fast as I expected.

我预计的两倍。

Clean energy is a technology.

清洁能源是一项技术,

This deception in understanding the pace of cost decline

对其价格下降速度的误判

has led to a massive underestimation of the pace of growth.

导致对其发展速度的严重低估。

Every year, the IEA puts out a forecast

IEA 每年都预测

for how much new solar will we install per year.

新的太阳能装机数量。

And you see these colored lines show you the pace

你可以从这些五颜六色的折线看出

at which the IEA believes new solar will be deployed annually,

IEA 对太阳能装机年增长的预测，

versus the black line, which shows how fast it's actually been deployed.

黑色折线表示其实际增长速度。

So you see the colored lines going off to the right,

这些彩色折线一直向右延伸，

those are successive years of forecasts of annual installations.

代表对未来几年年装机量的预测。

And on the left you have what amounts to a 30 to 40 percent

左边表示装机量的年增长率 达到 30%至 40%,

annual growth in installations.

Note this has happened through the COVID years,

请注意，疫情期间也是同样增速，

note that 2022 will see another 38 to 40 percent growth

2022 年将迎来又一个 38%至 40%的

in this market.

年增长率。

This trend is not limited to just solar.

这一趋势并非仅限于太阳能。

It applies to a wide variety of clean-energy technologies.

各项清洁能源技术都能反映这一趋势。

We've seen the price of solar drop

我们已看到太阳能价格下跌，

by a factor of 40 over the last few decades.

在过去几十年里降至原来的四十分之一。

We've seen the cost of wind drop almost as much,

风能价格的降幅也与此相似，

and now an accelerating cost decline in floating offshore wind

目前价格快速下跌的有 浮动式离岸风电

and offshore wind.

以及离岸风电。

We've seen the cost of batteries that power our electric vehicles

我们还会发现电动车电池的价格

and grid energy storage drop at the same pace

以及电网储能价格跌速

or faster than the pace of solar.

也和太阳能一样或更快。

And we are just at the very beginning of an exponential cost decline

电转气现在仅仅处于 价格飞速下滑的起点，

in the cost of using clean electricity to make hydrogen

清洁电力可以制造氢气

and other fuels that we can use to power industry,

和为工业供能的其他燃料，

to provide weeks or months of storage on the grid

从而提供数周或数月的电网储能，

and to provide fuels we can use for aviation,

以及为航空与航海等领域提供燃料。

for shipping and so on.

What’s happening here --

事实上——

and I won't claim this is happening quickly enough

我不是说这一切能够很快实现

to stay below 1.5 degrees Celsius --

从而将温升控制在1.5摄氏度以内——

but what's happening here is that clean energy technologies

但事实上清洁能源技术本身就是技术，

are technologies

and they drop in cost like technology.

所以其成本就像技术一样下跌。

As they are scaled, they come down in price.

随着规模化发展，它的价格就会下降。

Meanwhile, fossil fuels are commodities

然而，化石燃料属于商品，

and fossil fuel prices fluctuate over time.

因此价格会随着时间而波动。

This is data from Oxford's Institute of New Economic Studies,

这是来自牛津大学新经济研究所的数据，

which shows the cost of oil, gas and coal across the bottom there,

图表下方显示的是油、气、煤价格，

fluctuating over time, largely remaining flat.

它们随时间有所波动，大体上保持稳定。

Whereas here is the cost of clean energy technologies:

而清洁能源技术的价格则恰恰相反：

solar, wind, batteries, power to fuels,

太阳能、风能、电池、电转气，

all of them dropping exponentially.

这些价格都在大幅下跌。

In 2010, there was no place on earth

在 2010 年，根本不存在

where clean energy was cheaper than fossil energy.

清洁能源比燃料能源便宜这回事。

In 2015, we started to see the first instances of clean energy

在 2015 年，我们开始看到 第一批清洁能源

without subsidies being cost-competitive.

无需补贴也具备价格优势。

Now we see in more and more parts of the world

目前，在世界上越来越多的地区，

that it is cheaper to build solar and wind

建设太阳能和风能发电站的成本低于

than it is to put fuel

into an already built and operating coal or gas plant.

在已建好的煤电厂 或天然气发电厂使用燃料。

And behind that is the continued cost decline of batteries and hydrogen,

这背后是电池与氢气价格持续下跌，

which are still expensive

虽然它们仍然昂贵，

but will get cheap enough to solve many of our intermittency issues.

但将来会便宜得足以解决 许多清洁能源间歇性问题。

Now, does that mean we are done and the problem is solved?

那这意味着我们已大功告成了吗？

Not at all.

并非如此。

We need to go faster.

我们需要加快速度。

And we have a number of barriers.

我们正面临不少障碍，

Some of these we’ve talked about.

其中有些刚刚提到过。

Critical minerals need to be built out.

我们需要开发建设关键的矿产。

We need a just transition.

我们需要一个公平的过渡。

But there's two barriers I want to talk about in particular,

有两点障碍我想专门讲讲，

which are the reluctance to build -- not in my backyard --

一是不愿在自家附近建发电站—— 即邻避效应——

and the challenges with permitting.

二是申请许可的困难。

Because we look at renewables

当我们聚焦可再生能源时，

and a common complaint is they take up too much land.

常见的抱怨是它们占地面积过大。

All of us want clean energy infrastructure,

我们都想享用清洁能源的基础设施，

but many of us don't want it in our backyard.

但很多人不希望它建在自家后院里。

Now, solar power is fairly compact.

现在，太阳能占地尚可，

Wind power takes more space,

风能占地面积较多，

but that space is co-located with agriculture.

但其用地与农业共享。

Animals graze up to wind turbines, fields of crops can be grown.

农畜在风轮机前吃草， 周围农田的庄稼照常生长。

And yet, despite this,

然而，即便如此，

in modern nations, in Europe and North America,

在欧洲和北美的现代化国家中，

roughly half of the land in the UK, in Germany or the US,

例如英国、德国或美国，大概半数土地

is devoted to agriculture.

都投入到了农业中。

Yet, Germany allows now two percent of land in Germany

德国目前仅允许 2%的土地

to be used for wind power.

用于风电开发建设。

The US allows local communities to block wind power

美国允许地方社区限制风电开发建设，

even if it's nowhere near them.

即便风电站距其甚远。

If we want to deploy clean energy,

如果我们想要部署清洁能源，

we must allow it to actually be built.

我们必须允许它们的开发建设。

But the even larger problem is this:

但更棘手的问题是：

We need to build out the grid.

我们需要扩建电网。

We have a perception that clean energy technologies don't need the grid.

人们以为使用清洁能源技术不需要电网，

Solar and wind mean you can be off-grid.

太阳能和风能意味着你可以摆脱电网。

While that’s easier, largely the opposite is true.

其实没那么简单。

Because solar and wind are weather-dependent,

由于太阳能和风能依赖天气条件，

they benefit much more from continent-sized grid

它们比化石燃料更能 从覆盖大陆的电网中受益。

than do fossil fuels.

And yet the same NIMBY issues

但同样的邻避效应问题

and the same permitting issues plague energy transmission.

和许可问题阻碍了能源输送的进程。

Electricity transmission is ugly, and why do we need it,

输电线这么丑，为什么我们需要它，

if we can just go off-grid and local with these energy technologies?

尤其是如果可以摆脱电网 利用能源技术就地发电？

Well, here's why we need it.

好吧，这就是我们为何需要它的原因。

This is the sunshine, the solar resources of Europe.

这些光照，是欧洲太阳能的来源。

The most sun is in the south.

光照最多的是南部地区。

Of course, the most wind is in the north, by the way.

当然，风力最大的是北部地区。

And this is averaged across the year.

这是全年的平均值。

In winter, it is much more dramatic.

到了冬天，差异会更明显。

In winter you have one seventh the solar resource in the UK

英国冬天的太阳能资源 仅是夏天的七分之一。

that you have in summer.

You have one sixth the solar resource in Germany that you have in summer.

德国冬天的太阳能资源 仅是夏天的六分之一。

So every model,

每个模型，

every simulation of weather and energy demand shows this.

每次对气象和能源需求的模拟都表明，

It shows that if you want to have the highest-reliability grid

如果你想拥有最可靠的电网，

at the lowest cost, with the least carbon emissions

花费最低的成本，产生最少的碳排放，

and the most clean energy deployment,

实现最大规模的清洁能源部署，

you want to build a continent-sized grid.

你会想要建设覆盖整个大陆的电网。

In Europe, it would bring wind from the north,

在欧洲，它将会输送来自北部的风能，

primarily the North Sea, but also on land,

主要是来自北海，

hydro from the Nordics and solar from the south.

并输送来自北欧的水能，南欧的太阳能。

And these would be countercyclical.

但这些都是反周期的。

More sun in the summer, more wind in the winter.

夏天更多光照，冬天更多风能。

This is slightly oversimplified,

说得有些过于简略，

but this is the sort of system

但就是这种系统

that would allow Europe to decarbonize its electricity sector

可以使欧洲的电力行业实现脱碳，

with some degree of storage and hydrogen and so on,

通过一定程度的存储和氢气等等，

nearly completely,

以比现今的系统更低的成本， 实现完全脱碳。

at a lower cost than the system today.

That same Oxford study I showed you

牛津的同一份研究

says that a rapid transition to clean energy,

还指出，向清洁能源的快速过渡，

because the more you deploy, the cheaper it gets,

由于部署越多，价格越便宜，

would save us 12 trillion dollars on the energy system,

将在能源系统上节省 12 万亿美元，

not even counting climate damages.

更别说由此避免的气候变化的损失。

Now, could we build such a grid?

那我们现在可以建设这样的电网吗？

Of course, we have the technology and the economics.

当然，我们拥有技术和经济支持。

In China,

在中国，

the bulk of energy demand is on the East Coast,

大部分能源需求来自东部沿海地区，

yet, the greatest solar resources and wind resources are in the interior.

但太阳能及风能资源集中在内陆。

And China is building literally scores of high-voltage power lines

中国正在搭建数十条高压输电线路，

that transmit power from where the sun and wind are

把电力从太阳能和风能集中地区 传输到有大量供电需求的沿海地区。

to the coasts, where the energy demand is.

And the longest of these lines right now,

这之中最长的输电线路是

the Ürümqi to Shanghai line, is 3,400 kilometers long.

从乌鲁木齐到上海，长达 3400 公里，

It is 90 percent efficient, very low losses,

输送率达 90%，损耗极小，

and it adds maybe a penny or two to the cost of electricity.

电力成本仅增加了一两分钱。

That's what's technically feasible with current technology,

这是目前的技术就可以做到的，

let alone advances.

更别说技术还在不断发展突破了。

In Europe that would allow us to transmit electricity

在欧洲，这就能让我们将电力

from Seville to Copenhagen,

从塞维利亚输送到哥本哈根，

to bring power from the North Sea

从北海输送到

to anywhere in the continent that needs it.

欧洲大陆任何需要的地区。

In my home country, the United States,

在我的故乡美国，

we could bring power from the sunny,

我们可以将电力从阳光充足、

wide open areas of New Mexico

幅员辽阔的新墨西哥

to population and land-dense New York,

输送到人口密集、寸土寸金的纽约，

which doesn't get so much sun.

因为纽约光照不足。

And we could take wind power from the Great Plains,

我们还可以把风能从人烟稀少的大平原

that are largely devoid of population,

and bring it to the coasts in winter.

输送到冬天的沿海地区。

That is what a modern grid looks like.

现代的电网就理应如此。

And yet we are not building this.

但我们却并没在建设这些。

Now, let me give you two pieces of data that will back up my assertions

我想分享两组支持我的断言的数据，

about how powerful these issues of permitting

我认为许可和电网建设问题非常重要，

and grid build-out are,

and one more, which is open competition on cost.

还有电力成本的公开竞争问题。

What state in the United States

美国哪个州

do you believe has the most combined solar and wind power today

太阳能和风能合计发电量最多，

and has deployed the most solar over the last year?

并在去年开发建设最多的太阳能？

Audience: Texas.

观众：德克萨斯。

RN: You are a very smart audience.

演讲者：你们怎么这么聪明。

It is the great state of Texas.

正是我们伟大的德州。

Now, Texas has no climate policies to speak of.

德州没有任何气候政策可言，

It has no incentives for solar or wind to speak of.

没有任何开发太阳能风能的激励措施。

It does have abundant land and abundant sun and wind.

德州确实拥有充足的土地、阳光和风，

We can't all duplicate that.

那是很多地区无法复制的，

But it has three other things we should think about.

但它的另外三个因素很值得我们考虑。

One, it has an open market for electricity

第一，德州拥有开放型的电力市场，

where the cheapest provider wins,

供电商价低者胜，

and that should give us confidence of what is actually winning.

这让我们对市场充满信心。

Two, permitting in Texas is relatively easy.

第二，德州的许可条件相对宽松，

It's easy to build things, easy to build fossil infrastructure.

进行开发建设不难，包括化石燃料基建。

I don't love that, but it's easy to build clean infrastructure

我很不喜欢这点， 但进行清洁能源基建也很容易，

and that's what's winning out.

这就是它脱颖而出的地方。

And three, Texas is the easiest state in the United States

第三，德州是全美最容易 建设电力传输系统的地方。

to build electricity transmission.

Not as easy as I'd like, but it makes it easy.

没有我想的那么容易，但是还好。

Those last three factors are factors we can replicate in every nation,

这三个因素可以复制到任何国家、

every state, every geography on planet Earth.

任何州或地区，

And they would accelerate this transition.

这样就可以加速清洁能源转型。

Now, in August of 2022,

在 2022 年 8 月，

we passed the largest US climate bill ever,

我们通过了美国史上最大的气候法案，

Inflation Reduction Act.

《降低通胀法案》。

In Europe,

在欧洲，

we have a massive push on clean energy

我们正大力推动清洁能源的发展，

as part of the energy crisis driven by the war on Ukraine.

部分原因是乌克兰战争导致的能源危机。

Now I want to reveal at the same time that we failed at something.

同时，我想指出 一些我们没有做好的地方。

In late September 2022,

2022 年 9 月下旬，

we had a permitting bill in the United States

美国出台了许可法案，

that would have made it tremendously easier

这将使建设美国所需的 大陆规模的电网变得十分容易,

to build the continent-sized grid that we need in the US.

It also made it easier to build fossil fuels.

但也使化石燃料的开发建设 变得更容易。

Yet every analysis showed

每项分析都表明

that fundamentally this bill accelerated the clean energy transition.

该法案从根本上加快了清洁能源转型。

But it was opposed by some people

但有人仍然持反对意见，

because of it making it a bit easier to build fossil fuels as well.

因为该法案也简化了化石燃料的开发。

The consequence of this is potentially dire.

这些反对带来的后果可能很严重。

The Princeton REPEAT project, led by my friend Dr. Jesse Jenkins,

普林斯顿的REPEAT项目， 在我的朋友杰西·甄金斯领导下，

has analyzed this and said that up to 80 percent of the benefits

对此作了分析，指出高达 80%

of the Inflation Reduction Act may not manifest

来自《降低通胀法案》的好处 可能无法兑现，

if we can't accelerate the pace of building transmission.

如果我们不尽快建设输电线路。

That that could amount to as much as 800 million tons a year

美国每年高达 8 亿吨的

of carbon emissions in the United States

碳排放原本可以减少，

that would have been eliminated,

but that won't be

但我们还做不到，

because we don't have the transmission capability

因为我们缺乏输电能力，

to bring the cheapest power to where it's needed

不能把最便宜的电力输送到需要的地方，

and boost resilience and reliability along the way.

也不能提高电网的韧性和可靠性。

So I believe that a deal that makes it easier to build,

因此我相信， 一个简化电网建设的法案，

even if, to get that bill passed,

即便它的通过意味着

we need to make it a bit easier to build some fossil infrastructure,

我们得降低化石燃料的基建门槛，

will win for clean energy

该法案仍将为清洁能源赢得胜利，

because clean energy simply wins on cost.

因为清洁能源完全可以靠成本取胜。

On a level playing field, it will dominate the future.

在公平的竞争环境中， 清洁能源将主导未来。

And so if you have confidence in this decades-long trend

如果你对这个 长达数十年的趋势充满信心，

that clean energy will economically disrupt fossil fuels,

相信清洁能源将在经济上颠覆化石燃料，

then the logical conclusion is that we must get out of the way,

那么合乎逻辑的结论就是， 我们必须给清洁能源开辟道路，

make permitting easier, and allow it to be built.

降低许可门槛，允许清洁能源设施建设。

It is time for us to build.

是时候了，让我们开始建设吧。

Thank you very much.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）