The value of your humanity in an automated future | Kevin Roose

Transcriber: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Camille Martínez

翻译人员: 霖 何 校对人员: Violet Yu

在二十五六岁的时候 我第一次意识到，

自己可以被机器人取代。

那时，我的工作是财经记者，

报道华尔街和股票市场，

I was in my mid-20s the first time I realized

有一天我知道了这个 新的 AI 新闻报道 App。

that I could be replaced by a robot.

简单来说，只需提供些数据，

At the time, I was working as a financial reporter

covering Wall Street and the stock market,

比如企业财务报告 或者地产楼盘上市数据库，

and one day, I heard about this new AI reporting app.

App 将会自动找出重点部分，

Basically, you just feed in some data,

串接成一则新闻

like a corporate financial report or a database of real estate listings,

并发布，

完全不需要人类参与。

and the app would automatically strip out all the important parts,

尽管这些 AI 新闻报道 App，

不会获得普利兹奖，

plug it into a news story

and publish it,

但其报道效果却好得惊人。

with no human input required.

主要新闻机构已经启用这些 App 了，

Now, these AI reporting apps,

they weren't going to win any Pulitzer Prizes,

一家公司声称 AI 新闻报道 app，

but they were shockingly effective.

仅在一年时间内就已经 写出三亿条新闻，

Major news organizations were already starting to use them,

and one company said that its AI reporting app

这大概要比我和 世上所有人类记者的

总和还要稍微多一些。

had been used to write 300 million news stories in a single year,

过去几年间，

which is slightly more than me

我一直在研究这股 AI 和自动化的浪潮，

and probably more than every human journalist on earth combined.

并且我也认识到， 发生在我身上的事情

也会发生在各行各业的从业者身上，

For the last few years,

I've been researching this coming wave of AI and automation,

无论他们看似名声显赫 还是薪水丰厚，都将被卷入其中。

and I've learned that what happened to me that day

医生们认识到机器学习算法

is happening to workers in all kinds of industries,

诊断某些类型的癌症 比人类医生更准确。

no matter how seemingly prestigious or high-paid their jobs are.

律师正在与能在合同中

Doctors are learning that machine learning algorithms

can now diagnose certain types of cancers more accurately than they can.

更准确地找出错漏的法律 AI 竞争。

近期谷歌进行了一场 用 AI 训练神经网络实验——

Lawyers are going up against legal AIs that can spot issues in contracts

本质上，是用一个机器人 来创造其他机器人。

with better precision than them.

Recently at Google, they ran an experiment with an AI that trains neural networks --

他们发现 AI 训练的神经网络，

要比人类程序员 所编代码准确率还要高。

essentially, a robot that makes other robots.

And they found that these AI-trained neural networks

但我在我的研究中最令人恐慌的

是我们一直朝着完全错误的方向，

were more accurate than the ones that their own human programmers had coded.

为自动化的未来做准备。

But the most disturbing thing I learned in my research

多年来，传统观点认为： 如果我们的未来是科技的未来，

is that we've been preparing for this automated future

那么我们需要尽可能地趋近科技。

in exactly the wrong way.

我们告诉大家去 学编程和学硬技能，

For years, the conventional wisdom has been that if technology is the future,

比如数据科学、工程和数学，

then we need to get as close to the technology as possible.

因为那些靠软技能生存的人，

We told people to learn to code and to study hard skills

那些艺术家、作家和哲学家，

like data science, engineering and math,

在机器人称霸的时代里， 他们最终只能去端咖啡过活。

because all those soft skills people,

但我得出，本质上，正确的方向恰恰相反。

those artists and writers and philosophers,

they were just going to end up serving coffee to our robot overlords.

与其尝试和机器竞争，

不如尝试增进我们的人类技能，

But what I learned was that essentially the opposite is true.

那种只有人类可以做到的事，

Rather than trying to compete with machines,

那些涉及同情心、批判思维 和道义勇气的事情。

we should be trying to improve our human skills,

the kinds of things that only people can do,

我们在工作时，

我们应该尽量人性化地工作。

things involving compassion and critical thinking and moral courage.

于我而言，就是尽可能把自己 投入到工作当中，

And when we do our jobs,

we should be trying to do them as humanely as possible.

我不再写公式化的企业发迹史，

转而开始写更能显露出 我个性的东西，

For me, that meant putting more of myself in my work.

I stopped writing formulaic corporate earnings stories,

我开启了财经诗歌系列。

我给华尔街上古怪有趣的人 写人物专访，

and I started writing things that revealed more of my personality.

比如在高盛集团（Goldman Sachs） 剪头发的理发师。

I started a financial poetry series.

I wrote profiles of quirky and interesting people on Wall Street

我甚至说服我的编辑让我 像亿万富翁一样生活一天，

like the barber who cuts people's hair at Goldman Sachs.

戴着三万美元的手表， 驾驶劳斯莱斯兜风，

I even convinced my editor to let me live like a billionaire for a day,

乘坐私人飞机。

多困难的任务，

但总有人来完成。

wearing a 30,000 dollar watch and driving around in a Rolls Royce,

并且我发现这些 我工作中的人性化转变，

flying in a private jet.

让我变得对未来更加乐观，

Tough job,

but someone's got to do it.

And I found that this new human approach to my job

因为你可以教机器人总结新闻，

或者教它写能从谷歌或脸书上

made me feel much more optimistic about my own future,

获得高点击率的新闻标题，

但你不能用一首 债券市场的愚蠢打油诗

because you can teach a robot to summarize the news

让人发笑，

or to write a headline that's going to get a lot of clicks

或者给人解释担保债务权证是什么

from Google or Facebook,

but you can't automate making someone laugh

同时还不让他们无聊到睡着。

with a dumb limerick about the bond market

随着我研究的深入，

我发现有很多这样的成功案例，

or explaining what a collateralized debt obligation is to them

without making them fall asleep.

他们拒绝与机器竞争，

而是发挥自己的人性优势。

And as I researched more,

I found so many more examples of people who had succeeded this way

就以罗素（Rus）举例。

罗素·格罗法罗（Russel Garofalo） 是我的会计师。

他每年都帮我报税，

by refusing to compete with machines

也许你大概可以从照片里看出，

and instead making themselves more human.

罗素并不是传统的会计师，

Take Rus.

Rus Garofalo is my accountant.

他之前是脱口秀演员，

He helps me with my taxes every year,

并且把他的喜剧精神带入到工作中。

and as you can probably tell from the photo,

我发誓，我从和罗素 讨论列举扣除额中

Rus is not a traditional accountant.

He's a former standup comedian,

比从实际正儿八经花钱看的 喜剧中获得了更多乐趣。

and he brings his comedic sensibility to his work.

I swear, I've had more fun talking about itemized deductions with Rus

罗素知道在特波税务软件的时代，

人类会计师保有竞争力唯一方式，

than at actual comedy shows that I've paid real money to see.

就是带来税务以外的东西。

Rus knows that in the age of TurboTax,

因此他开了一家叫 Brass Taxes 的公司。

the only way for human accountants to stay relevant

懂了吗？

is bringing something to the table other than tax expertise.

他雇了一群有趣又和善的会计师，

So he started a company called Brass Taxes.

并且开始寻找来自创意产业的客户，

那些享受人类会计师

Get it?

He hired a bunch of other funny and personable accountants,

一步步帮他们报税的过程的客户。

现在，严格意义上， 我应该为罗素担忧，

and he started looking for clients in creative industries

who would appreciate the value of having a human being

因为税务筹划是一个 非常容易自动化的行业。

walk them through their taxes.

Now, technically, I should be very worried about Rus,

实际上，牛津大学的 一份研究显示，

because tax preparation is a highly automation-prone industry.

税务筹划有 99% 的可能性自动化。

但我一点也不为罗素担心，

In fact, according to an Oxford University study,

因为他找到了一条路， 把税务筹划从苦差事

it has a 99 percent chance of being automated.

转变成愉悦的人性化体验。

But I'm not worried about Rus,

because he's figured out a way to turn tax preparation from a chore

很多人，包括我在内，

都愿意为此买单。

或者以河合满（Mitsuru Kawai）为例，

into an entertaining human experience

六十年前，河合满是

that lots of people, including me,

一家日本丰田工厂的初级实习生。

are willing to pay for.

他是当时是手工制造 汽车零部件的工人。

Or take Mitsuru Kawai.

那是上世纪六十年代，

Sixty years ago, Mitsuru started as a junior trainee

一个汽车工业正经历

at a Toyota factory in Japan.

一场科技巨变的时代。

He made car parts by hand.

第一批工业机器人 开始登上生产线，

And this was the 1960s,

有很多人担心，

an era where the auto industry was undergoing

汽车工人将被淘汰。

a huge technological transformation.

The first factory robots had started coming onto the assembly lines,

河合满和决定专注于日语里所说的 “monozukuri（物作り）”——

and a lot of people were worried

that auto workers were going to become obsolete.

简而言之，手工匠人。

Mitsuru decided to focus on what, in Japanese, is called "monozukuri" --

他研究了所有细微的、 错综复杂的汽车设计细节，

basically, human craftsmanship.

并且他锻炼出了一种其他同事没有的

He studied all the nuanced, intricate details of auto design,

第六感技能。

他能仅凭机器声音 就知道机器何时会故障，

and he developed these kind of sixth-sense skills

或肉眼观察金属加热火色深浅，

that few of his other colleagues had.

就能判断其温度。

He could listen to a machine and tell when it was about to break

最终，河合满的上司注意到 他掌握了这些能力，

or look at a piece of metal and figure out what temperature it was

而其他同事却没有。

上司们十分重视他，

just by what shade of orange it was glowing.

因为他可以跟机器人 并肩工作填补缺漏，

Eventually, Mitsuru's bosses noticed that he had all these skills

做机器人做不到的事情。

that his coworkers didn't,

他不断地升职，

and they made him really valuable,

because he could work alongside the robots filling in the gaps,

并且就在今年，

河和满被任命为 丰田史上首位首席造物官，

doing the things that they couldn't do.

He kept getting promoted and promoted,

这是对他六十年来 指导丰田工人的肯定。

and just this year,

Mitsuru Kawai was named Toyota's first-ever Chief Monozukuri Officer,

即使是在高度自动化的行业，

人类的技能依然举足轻重。

in recognition of the 60 years that he spent teaching Toyota workers

又或以马库斯图书 （Marcus Books）为例，

马库斯图书是一家小型独立、 黑人经营的书店，

that even in a highly automated industry,

在我的老家加利福尼亚奥克兰。

their human skills still matter.

这是一个相当棒的地方。

Or take Marcus Books.

这是美国最早的黑人经营的书店，

Marcus Books is a small, independent, Black-owned bookstore

在 60 年间，

in my hometown of Oakland, California.

它为奥克兰市民介绍了 托妮·莫里森（Tori Morrison）、

马娅·安杰卢（Maya Angelou） 等作家的作品

It's a pretty amazing place.

It's the oldest Black-owned bookstore in America,

但马库斯图书最了不起的是

and for 60 years,

它至今仍然在营业。

it's been introducing Oaklanders

to the work of people like Toni Morrison and Maya Angelou.

太多独立书店在近几十年间

由于受亚马逊或

But the most amazing thing about Marcus Books

互联网的影响而倒闭。

is that it's still here.

那么马库斯图书是怎样做到的呢？

So many independent bookstores have gone out of business

in the last few decades

好吧，这不是因为他们价格最低，

because of Amazon or the internet.

或者最精巧的电子商务架构 亦或是最优的供应链。

So how did Marcus Books do it?

Well, it's not because they have the lowest prices

而是因为马库斯图书 不仅只是一家书店，

or the slickest e-commerce setup or the most optimized supply chain.

还是一个社区聚集地，

是一代代奥克兰市民 去学习和成长的地方。

It's because Marcus Books is so much more than a bookstore.

这是一个安全的地方。

It's a community gathering place,

在这里黑人顾客知道 他们不会被店员紧跟

where generations of Oaklanders have gone to learn and grow.

或者被保安搜身。

It's a safe place

就像布兰奇·理查森（Blanche Richardson）， 马库斯图书其中一位合伙人

where Black customers know that they're not going to be followed around

所说的，“这里就是气氛很好”。

or patted down by a security guard.

在今年年初， 马库斯图书暂时闭店了，

As Blanche Richardson, one of the owners of Marcus Books, told me,

和很多商家一样，书店前途未卜。

"It just has good vibes."

当时书店通过众筹网站 （GoFundMe）网筹钱。

Earlier this year, Marcus Books temporarily closed,

没多久乔治·弗洛伊德被杀害，

and like a lot of businesses, its future was uncertain.

街道上挤满了抗议者，

It was raising money through a GoFundMe page.

订单从全国各地 涌入马库斯图书——

And then George Floyd was killed.

一开始，一天卖出了 100 本书，

The streets filled with protests,

然后是一天 200 本、

一天 300 本。

and orders poured in to Marcus Books from all over the country --

现在，他们的书籍销量

是疫情前的五倍。

first, a hundred books a day,

then 200,

同时在他们在众筹网站 也筹集到超过 25 万美元的捐款。

then 300.

Today, they're selling five times as many books

如果看看他们在众筹网站上的评论，

as they were before the pandemic,

and their GoFundMe page has raised more than 250,000 dollars.

你就能知道为什么 马库斯图书能生存多年了。

And if you look at the comments on its GoFundMe page,

有一个人评论道， 我们有义务保护社区中

you can see why Marcus Books has survived all these years.

这明珠般的地方。

还有人评论道，

“我从还是孩子的时候 就一直去马库斯图书，

One person wrote that we have a duty to preserve gems like this

布兰奇·理查森 给了我很多善意。”

in our community.

Someone else said,

“明珠。”

"I've been going to Marcus Books since I was a child,

“善意。”

and Blanche Richardson showed me many kindnesses."

这不是用来形容科技的词语。

这甚至不是用来形容书籍的词语。

"Gems."

这是形容人的词语。

"Kindnesses."

马库斯图书之所以存活下来，

Those aren't words about technology.

They're not even words about books.

是因为他们带给顾客不一样的感觉：

They're words about people.

是一段经历，而不是一场买卖。

The thing that saved Marcus Books

如果你和我一样，

was how they made their customers feel:

也时常担心自己 在自动化未来中的处境，

an experience, not a transaction.

你有几个选择。

你可以尝试和机器竞争。

If you, like me,

你可以长时间工作，

sometimes worry about your own place in an automated future,

你可以把自己变成一个 光鲜亮丽、高效的生产机器。

you have a few options.

或者你可以专注于人性，

You can try to compete with the machines.

You can work long hours,

做那些机器无法完成的事情，

you can turn yourself into a sleek, efficient productivity machine.

将所有人类技能

Or you can focus on your humanity

运用到工作当中。

and doing the things that machines can't do,

如果你是一名医生， 你可以改进对待病人的态度，

于是你的病人把你当成他们的朋友，

bringing all those human skills to bear

而不仅仅是医生。

on whatever your work is.

如果你是一名律师， 你可以提高庭审辩论技巧，

If you're a doctor, you can work on your bedside manner

与客户的交流互动，

so that your patients come to see you as their friend

而不只是整天赶诉讼材料和合同。

rather than just their medical provider.

如果你是一名程序员，

If you're a lawyer, you can work on your trial skills

你可以花时间了解你的产品用户，

and your client interactions

弄清他们的问题并想办法解决，

rather than just cranking out briefs and contracts all day.

而不只是埋头冲击 下一季度业务增长目标。

If you're a programmer,

you can spend time with the people who actually use your products,

这就是我们如何才能做到 不被未来洪流所淹没。

figure out what their problems are and try to solve them,

不是通过承担机器的工作，

rather than just hitting next quarter's growth targets.

而是通过在人类 有天然优势的领域中争优。

That's how we become futureproof.

Not by taking on the machines,

在工作生活中发挥人性优势，

but by excelling in the areas where humans have a natural advantage.

我们让自己变得无可代替。

还有一个好消息是 我们一条代码都不用学，

By living and working more like humans,

we can make ourselves impossible to replace.

也一个算法都不用部署。

实际上，你已经拥有 你所需要的一切了。

And the good news is that we don't have to learn a single line of code

谢谢。

or deploy a single algorithm.

In fact, you already have everything you need.

Thank you.