Africa's Great Carbon Valley -- and How to End Energy Poverty | James Irungu Mwangi | TED

翻译人员: l l 校对人员: suya f.

Welcome to the gates of hell.

欢迎来到地狱之门。

Now depending on your frame of mind,

现在取决于你的心态，

that is either a bizarrely morbid or entirely appropriate way

这要么是一种奇怪的病态， 要么是完全合适的方式

to start a talk about climate action in the year 2022.

开始谈论 2022 年的气候行动。

Behind me is a picture from the Hell's Gate National Park

我身后是地狱之门国家公园的照片

in the town of Naivasha, in the Great Rift Valley

在东非大裂谷的奈瓦沙镇

in my home country, Kenya.

在我的祖国，肯尼亚。

Now its name may not scream “tourist trap,”

现在它的名字可能不会叫“旅游陷阱”，

but believe me,

但相信我，

it is a beautiful part of the world and you should all try and visit sometime.

它是世界上美丽的一部分， 你们都应该尝试在某个时候去看。

But more importantly, it could play --

但更重要的是，它可以发挥--

It has the potential to play a crucial role

它有可能发挥关键作用

in the fight against global climate catastrophe.

在与全球气候灾难作斗争中。

The most recent IPCC reports are clear.

最近的 IPCC 报告很清楚。

Humanity has left cutting emissions too late.

人类现在开始减排为时已晚。

Any realistic path to avoiding unacceptable levels of warming

现在，任何想要避免不可接受 的变暖水平现实途径

now requires us to not only drastically cut emissions,

都要求我们不仅 需要大幅削减排放量，

at least halving them by 2030,

至少到 2030 年将排放量减半，

but also undertake an equally massive effort

但也要付出同样巨大的努力

to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere

以更快的速度从大气中清除温室气体。

at an accelerating rate.

现在，让我们明确一点

Now, let's be clear.

Greenhouse gas removal is not and cannot be an excuse for continuing to emit.

清除温室气体不是也不能 成为继续排放的借口。

Just as installing seat belts and airbags is not an excuse

就像安装安全带和安全气囊

for deliberately ramming your car into a wall.

并不是故意将车撞向墙壁的借口。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Indeed, current estimates suggest

事实上，目前的估计表明

that even with drastic emissions reductions,

即使大幅减少排放，

the world will need to be removing

世界将需要每年从大气层中清除

between five and 16 billion tons of carbon dioxide

5至16吨的二氧化碳

from the atmosphere every single year by 2050.

直到 2050 年

Now to give you a sense of the scale of that,

现在让我给你们了解一下其规模，

the low end of that range, five billion tons,

该范围的低端，五十亿吨，

that's bigger than the size of the global petroleum industry in 2020.

这比 2020 年全球 石油工业规模还要大。

So let's not kid ourselves that carbon removal,

所以我们不要自欺欺人地去认为，

at anywhere close to the scale that we will need in order to survive,

在任何接近我们生存所需规模的地方，

is some sort of easy way out.

清除碳是某种容易的出路。

It is going to be damn difficult to do.

这将是非常困难的事情。

So how do we do it?

那么，我们该怎么做呢？

Well, the first and most familiar measures would be interventions

好，第一个也是最熟悉 的措施将是干预措施

such as reforestation and landscape restoration.

例如重新造林和景观恢复。

Essentially giving Mother Nature the time and space to heal herself.

本质上是给大自然母亲 时间和空间来治愈自己。

In addition, we can increase the amount of carbon held in our soils

此外，我们可以增加土壤中的碳含量

through the widespread application of biochar

通过广泛地应用生物炭

and enhanced weathering of chemically suitable rocks.

并增强化学上适合的岩石的风化作用。

We estimate that in Africa alone,

我们预估，仅在非洲，

something like 100 million to 680 million additional tons of carbon dioxide

通过以上方法，可以从大气层

could be drawn from the atmosphere using these types of methods.

额外捕获 1 亿 至 6.8 亿吨二氧化碳

However, they do require a lot of land,

然而，他们确实需要大量的土地，

a lot of water and a lot of other natural resources

大量的水和大量的其他自然资源

that may limit the extent to which we can scale them.

这可能会限制我们扩展它们的范围。

Moreover, they are subject to some of the feedback loops

此外，它们还受到一些反馈循环的影响

from the climate change that we are already experiencing,

来自我们已经经历的气候变化，

such as more frequent and intense wildfires.

例如更频繁和更强烈的野火。

And all of that means we are going to need to supplement them with technologies

而所有这一切都意味着 我们需要科技的帮助，

that accelerate and amplify natural processes

科技能加速、放大自然作用，

to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

来清除大气中的二氧化碳。

Enter the members of my new favorite boy band.

我最喜欢的男团成员 是 DAC, BECCS 和 BiCRS。

DAC, BECCS and BiCRS.

其实他们分别指直接空气捕获、 碳捕获和储存生物能源，

以及碳去除和储存生物质

(Laughter)

（笑声）

These are a set of engineered approaches

这些是一个工程化的方法

that use physical, chemical and biological processes

使用物理，化学和生物过程

to gather and concentrate carbon dioxide from the atmosphere

从大气层中来收集和浓缩二氧化碳

before safely sequestering it, usually underground.

然后将其安全的隔离，通常在地下。

As more people run the climate math,

随着越来越多人运行气候数学，

you're seeing growing levels of interest and investment in these technologies,

您会看到这些技术的兴趣 和投资水平不断的增长，

with billions of dollars already being committed to early pilots

已经有数十亿美元投入到早期试点

and installations in various parts of the world,

和安装在世界各地，

particularly in Europe and North America.

特别是在欧洲和北美。

But the reality is they have a very long way to go.

但现实是，他们还有很长的路要走。

To date, engineered removals around the world

到目前为止，世界各地的工程清除

have accounted for something like 100,000 tons

已经占到大约 100,000 吨

of carbon dioxide removed total.

的二氧化碳总排放量。

To get to the multi-billion-ton scale we’re going to need by 2050

到 2050， 要达到我们需要 的数十亿吨的规模

is going to take a truly epic process of exponential scaling.

将需要一个真正史诗般 的指数级扩展过程。

Probably means we need to get to something --

可能意味着我们需要做点什么——

If we want to have a realistic shot at it,

如果我们想对它有现实的机会，

we need to get to something like 100 million tons per year by 2030.

我们需要在 2030 年 达到每年1亿吨左右。

For those of you running the calculators,

对于那些运行计算机的人来说，

that's a thousand-fold increase in less than a decade.

在不到十年的时间里增加了一千倍。

And guess what?

你猜怎么着？

We will have to continue that insane rate of growth

我们将会不得不继续 保持这种疯狂的增长速度

for another two decades after that.

在那之后的二十年里。

And here's the really bad news.

这是真正的坏消息。

Anything close to that level of scaling of this industry

任何接近于这个行业的规模化水平

in the places where it’s currently being piloted

在目前正在试点的地方，

presents some really difficult climate action trade offs.

会带来一些非常困难的气候行动交易。

For that, let me take the example of DAC or direct air capture.

为此，让我以 DAC 或直接 空气捕获来举例子。

The best known DAC facility in the world is in Iceland.

世上最著名的 DAC 设施位于冰岛。

It's the Orca plant in Iceland, it was inaugurated last year, 2021.

这是冰岛的 Orca 工厂， 它在去年，即2021年开创。

It uses plentiful green geothermal energy

它利用丰富的绿色地热能源

to capture carbon dioxide, dissolve it in water

捕获二氧化碳， 将其溶解在水中

and inject it into porous basalt deep underground,

并注入地下深处的多孔玄武岩，

where it chemically reacts to create a stable solid

它在那里发生化学反应以产生稳定的固体

that can stay there for centuries.

可以在那里停留几个世纪。

It takes the equivalent of between two and three megawatt hours of energy

今天，它需要相当于两到三兆瓦时的能量

to take a single ton of carbon dioxide today

提取一吨二氧化碳

and render it in that way.

并以这种方式。

To get to the hundred million number in 2030,

要在 2023 年达到一亿的数字，

on that track,

在这个轨道上，

would entail something like 200 to 300 terawatt hours of electricity.

将需要大约 200 到 300 兆瓦时的电力。

Again, that's about half the electricity usage of Germany.

同样，这大约是德国用电量的一半。

And all of that power would need to be renewable,

而这些电力都需要是可再生的，

otherwise, we would be taking two steps forward

否者，我们将向前走两步，

and one and a half steps back.

向后退一步半。

Now it's reasonable to expect and assume

现在可以合理地期待和假设

that we are going to see substantial improvements in energy efficiency

我们将看见能量效率方面的实质性改善

of these technologies

在这些科技中

as we deploy them and learn to use them better.

随着我们部署这些技术 并学会更好地使用它们。

However, keep in mind that probably

然而，请记住

the most urgent thing we can do to slow climate change right now

我们现在为减缓气候改变 所能做的最紧迫的事情可能

is stop current emissions.

是停止目前的排放。

And so scaling these technologies

因此，在我们可以减少

in places where we do have fossil fuel energy emissions

化石燃料能源排放的地方

that we could be curtailing

推广这些技术

does not make sense.

是没有意义的。

Essentially, every unit of renewable energy

在本质上讲，我们在北美和欧洲等地引入

that we are bringing on stream in places like North America and Europe

使用的每一种可再生能源

should be going towards displacing

都应该用于代替

and retiring existing fossil fuel capacity.

和淘汰现有的化石燃料产能。

And so the world is kind of stuck.

因此，这个世界有点被卡住了。

Right?

对吗？

We need to scale this technology.

我们需要扩展这项技术规模。

We need to get DAC down the cost curve and up the efficiency curve urgently.

我们迫切需要 DAC 降低成本 的曲线并提高效率曲线。

Our lives literally depend on it.

我们的生活实际上依赖于它。

But at the same time, we cannot do it

但与此同时，我们无法做到

except at the expense of other equally urgent climate imperatives.

除非以牺牲其他同样紧迫 的气候需求为代价。

So we need places in the world that somehow have three characteristics.

因此，我们需要世界上一些的地方 以某种方式具有三个特征。

A, they need to have the right geophysical conditions.

第一，他们需要有合适的地球物理条件。

You know, plenty of porous basalt rock in a geothermally active zone

你知道，在地热活跃区的大量多孔玄武岩

is one such example.

就是这样一个的例子。

Two, they need to have plenty of renewable energy potential.

二，他们需要有大量的可再生能源潜力。

And three,

第三，

they need to have no current proximate emissions

他们需要没有目前 可再生能源可用于替代的

that that renewable energy could be used to displace.

近似排放。

And that brings us back to Hell's Gate National Park.

这让我们回到了地狱之门国家公园。

Here's another view of the park

这是从一个角度去看公园的另一个景象，

from an angle that may explain its potential.

也许可以解释它的潜力。

That is one of the power plants that together constitute

这是共同构成

the Olkaria Geothermal Energy Plant,

奥尔卡里亚地热能源厂的发电厂之一，

which provides about a third of Kenya's electricity.

它提供了肯尼亚约三分之一的电力。

That's right.

没错。

My home country not only has 92 percent renewable electricity

我的祖国今天不仅 有 92% 的可再用电力

being dispatched on its grids today,

在其电网上进行调度，

but its largest single-energy installation

但它的单一能源装置

is seamlessly integrated into an honest-to-goodness national park.

被无缝地整合到一个诚实的国家公园。

Literally, between the different plants you can see herds of zebra

从字面上看，在不同的植物之间， 你可以看到成群的斑马

peacefully grazing all times of the day.

在一天中的所有时间都在和平地吃草。

It's amazing.

这很惊人。

Now at just under 1,000 megawatts,

现在，奥尔卡里亚 不到 1,000 兆瓦，

Olkaria is nothing to sneeze at.

这一点不容小觑。

It's one of the largest geothermal electricity installations in the world.

它是世界上最大的地热发电装置之一。

But it's barely scratching the surface of the potential in Kenya.

但它几乎没有触及肯尼亚潜力的外表。

There's 10 gigawatts of proven,

该国有 10 吉瓦已被证实，

high-quality geothermal resource in the country,

优质地热资源，

widely recognized, ready to be tapped.

得到广泛认可，可供开发。

And in addition,

此外，

Kenya is endowed with excellent wind and solar resources

肯尼亚拥有出色的风能和太阳能的资源，

that have also barely been exploited.

而这些资源也几乎没有被开发。

We are on the equator, after all.

毕竟，我们在赤道上。

We estimate conservatively that there's about 50 gigawatts

我们保守估计，有大约 50 吉瓦

of potential deployable renewable energy in Kenya

的潜在部署可再生能源在肯尼亚，

that can be readily accessed with the right level of investment.

可以通过适当的投资水平轻松获得。

And yet, Kenya remains an energy-poor country

然而，肯尼亚仍然 是一个能源匮乏的国家，

where, despite a lot of progress in recent years,

尽管近年来取得了很多进展，

more than a quarter of the population still does not have access

但仍有超多四分之一的人口无法获得

to basic electricity.

基本电力。

And those that do often pay prices that are almost three times as much

而那些人通常支付的价格几乎是

as much as their counterparts in countries like India and China.

印度和中国等国家同行的三倍。

Now you might be sitting there wondering,

现在你可能坐在那里很疑惑，

"Well, all right, James, if this is true,

“好，好吧，詹姆士，如果这是真的，

if Kenya has all of this renewable energy potential

如果肯尼亚拥有所有 这些可再生能源的潜力

and all of these people in need of energy,

和这些都需要能源的人，

well, before we have this whole conversation about fancy climate tech,

那么，在我们进行这些关于 花哨的气候技术的对话之前，

shouldn’t we first have a TED Talk about affordable energy access?”

我们是不是应该先进行一次 关于可负担能源获得的TED演讲？”

And you would be right.

你是对的。

Were it not for a particularly cruel paradox of energy economics

如果不是因为肯尼亚等 国家的能源经济方面

in countries like Kenya.

有一特个别残酷的悖论的话。

You see, part of the reason why energy is so expensive in the country

你会看到，该国能源如此昂贵的部分原因

is those consumers who are on the grid

是那些上网的消费者

have to pay for capacity that is not currently being used.

必须为目前没有被使用的容量付费。

There's something like 1,000 megawatt hours every day that goes begging

每天都有大约 1,000 兆瓦时乞讨

because there isn’t sufficient industrial demand.

因为没有足够的工业需求。

At the same time,

此外，

those very same high energy prices

同样高昂的能源价格

make the country unattractive and uncompetitive for manufacturers

使该国没有吸引力和竞争力对制造商和

and other users of energy

其他寻找工业用地的

looking for places to site their industries.

能源用户来说。

So to get this straight,

因此，为了弄清这一点，

the reason why the average Kenyan cannot get affordable access

尽管我们有这些天然的能源， 但普通肯尼亚人无法负担得起

to clean, renewable energy despite all of this natural bounty,

清洁，可再生能源的原因在于，

is this tremendously frustrating feedback loop where firstly,

首先这种非常令人沮丧的反馈循环，

we would have all of that energy

我们将拥有所有的能源，

if someone invested in renewable power plants.

如果有人投资于可再生能源发电厂。

People would invest in those power plants

人们就会投资于这些发电厂

if there was a lot of available industry to use the energy.

如果有很多可用的工业来使用这些资源。

Available industry would come if energy costs weren’t so high.

如果能源的成本不是那么高， 可用的工业就会出现。

And energy costs wouldn’t be so high if there was enough demand.

如果有足够的需求， 能源成本也不会那么高。

It's enough to drive you crazy.

这足以让你疯狂。

But it also points the way to a potential huge triple opportunity.

但它也为一个潜在 巨大三倍机会指明方向。

Firstly,

第一，

introducing DAC and other energy-hungry climate technology

将DAC和其他耗能大的气候技术引入

into places like the Rift Valley

裂谷这样的地方，

would give them the space and capacity they need

将给他们提供所需要的地方和能力，

to really scale to planetary levels.

使其真正扩展到地球的水平

With no competition,

没有竞争，

with none of the trade-offs they would face in other parts of the world.

没有他们在世界其他地方 会面临的权衡问题。

At the same time,

此外，

having that energy-hungry anchor industry available

有了这个对能源要求很高的支柱产业，

suddenly creates the basis on which people are willing to invest

突然创造了一个基础，人们愿意投资

in expanding the country's renewable energy potential.

扩大国家的可再生能源潜力。

Actually creating the business case

实际上创建了一个商业案例

for providing tens of millions of people

为数以千万计的人提供

with the productive energy they need to improve the quality of their lives.

他们所需的生产能源， 以提高他们的生活质量。

And thirdly,

第三，

introducing these new and exciting technologies

引进这些新的和令人兴奋的技术

on the continent with the world's youngest and fastest-growing workforce

在拥有世界上最年轻和 增长最快的劳动力的大陆上

could potentially activate their imaginations

有可能会激发他们的想象力

and their energies towards becoming climate innovators

和能量，使他们成为气候创新者

and solution builders themselves,

和解决方案的建设者，

basically building an army from the world's largest workforce

基本上从世界最大 的劳动力中建立一支军队

to solve the world's biggest problem.

来解决世界上最大的问题。

I call it the “Great Carbon Valley.”

我称之为“大碳谷”。

And it's just one of the ways in which Africa, as the continent,

而这只是非洲作为大陆的一种方法，

which, per capita, is the closest to net-zero

因为非洲大陆的人均水平最接近净零排放

and has contributed the least to climate change,

对气候变化的影响很小，

can play a role in helping the planet avert climate disaster.

可以帮助地球避免气候灾难方面。

But in addition, it can do more

但除此之外，它还可以做得更多

and be the first continent to go substantially net-negative.

成为第一个实质上净负增长的大陆。

We're used to thinking about the continent in terms of its forests,

我们习惯于来思考大陆， 从需要保护的森林，

its peatlands, its grasslands,

尼炭地，草原，

its wetlands that need to be preserved.

湿地的角度。

And we should definitely continue to invest in the Indigenous communities,

我们绝对应该继续投资土著社区，

the smallholder farmers and the local innovators

与保护和扩展大自然碳汇，

who are protecting and expanding natural carbon sinks.

小农户和当地创新者。

But that should not blind us to the fact

但这不应该让我们忽视这样一个事实

that Africa also provides an ideal potential home

即非洲也提供了理想的潜力家园

for scaling the latest and most ambitious of climate technologies.

推广最新的和最雄心勃勃的气候科技。

Whichever of these narratives most speaks to you,

无论这些叙述中哪一个能最能打动了你，

one thing should be clear.

有一件事应该很清楚。

We need to shake the old, tired idea

我们需要摆脱那种认为

that Africa is a poor, hapless, helpless climate change victim.

非洲是贫穷，不幸，无助的气候变化 受害者的陈旧，疲倦的想法。

Instead, Africa and its people have the potential.

相反，非洲及其人民具有潜力。

They can, and they should, be the world’s climate vanguard.

他们可以，也应该成为世界气候先锋。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause and cheers)

（掌声和欢呼）