Africa's Great Carbon Valley -- and How to End Energy Poverty | James Irungu Mwangi | TED

譯者: 佳瑜 何 審譯者: Shelley Tsang 曾雯海

Welcome to the gates of hell.

歡迎來到鬼門關

Now depending on your frame of mind,

根據你現在的心境

that is either a bizarrely morbid or entirely appropriate way

這會是一個謎之病態 或完全正確的

to start a talk about climate action in the year 2022.

在2022啟動氣候行動討論的方法

Behind me is a picture from the Hell's Gate National Park

在我的後方是一個地獄門國家公園的照片

in the town of Naivasha, in the Great Rift Valley

它在東非大裂谷的奈瓦沙村

in my home country, Kenya.

在我的家鄉肯亞

Now its name may not scream “tourist trap,”

它的名字可能不讓人覺得 它是個「旅遊陷阱」

but believe me,

但是相信我

it is a beautiful part of the world and you should all try and visit sometime.

它是世界上美麗的一部分 而你們有空都應該來看看

But more importantly, it could play --

但更重要的是它可以

It has the potential to play a crucial role

它有擔任重要角色的潛能

in the fight against global climate catastrophe.

在對抗全球暖化的危機中

The most recent IPCC reports are clear.

聯合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會（IPCC） 最新的報告十分清楚

Humanity has left cutting emissions too late.

人類太晚開始減少碳排放量了

Any realistic path to avoiding unacceptable levels of warming

任何避免無法接受程度暖化的實際方法

now requires us to not only drastically cut emissions,

都要求我們不僅是劇烈地減少碳排放量

at least halving them by 2030,

至少在2030年前要砍半

but also undertake an equally massive effort

但也要採取同樣龐大的努力

to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere

去移除大氣層中的溫室氣體

at an accelerating rate.

而且是加速地

Now, let's be clear.

我們在這裏說明白了

Greenhouse gas removal is not and cannot be an excuse for continuing to emit.

溫室氣體的移除不是也不可以是 繼續排放它的藉口

Just as installing seat belts and airbags is not an excuse

就像安裝安全帶與安全氣囊不可以是

for deliberately ramming your car into a wall.

故意開你的車去撞牆的藉口

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Indeed, current estimates suggest

確實 現今的估計數值建議

that even with drastic emissions reductions,

即使大量的減少碳排放

the world will need to be removing

世界也會需要每年從大氣層中移除

between five and 16 billion tons of carbon dioxide

50~160億噸的二氧化碳

from the atmosphere every single year by 2050.

在2050年前

Now to give you a sense of the scale of that,

現在若要給你一個規模的概念

the low end of that range, five billion tons,

剛才估計的保守數值，五十億噸

that's bigger than the size of the global petroleum industry in 2020.

比2020年的全球全球石油工業還要巨大

So let's not kid ourselves that carbon removal,

所以我們不要騙我們自己 說減少碳排放

at anywhere close to the scale that we will need in order to survive,

在接近我們需要生存的程度

is some sort of easy way out.

是一個容易的辦法

It is going to be damn difficult to do.

它會非常之艱難

So how do we do it?

那麽我們應該如何去做它？

Well, the first and most familiar measures would be interventions

首先，也是最熟悉的措施是干預

such as reforestation and landscape restoration.

像是重新造林與恢復景觀

Essentially giving Mother Nature the time and space to heal herself.

本質上就是給大地 休養生息的時間與空間

In addition, we can increase the amount of carbon held in our soils

再加上我們可以增加 土地中的含碳量

through the widespread application of biochar

透過生物碳的廣泛運用

and enhanced weathering of chemically suitable rocks.

以及增強風化化學性適合的石頭

We estimate that in Africa alone,

我們估計光是非洲

something like 100 million to 680 million additional tons of carbon dioxide

大約1億到6.8億噸的多餘二氧化碳

could be drawn from the atmosphere using these types of methods.

就能用這種方法從大氣中移除

However, they do require a lot of land,

不過這些需要大量的土地

a lot of water and a lot of other natural resources

大量的水以及大量的自然能源

that may limit the extent to which we can scale them.

就有可能會限縮我們這項措施的規模化

Moreover, they are subject to some of the feedback loops

而且他們也會受到有些 我們已經在經歷的

from the climate change that we are already experiencing,

氣候變遷的回饋環影響

such as more frequent and intense wildfires.

像是更頻繁而劇烈的野火

And all of that means we are going to need to supplement them with technologies

這所有都代表著我們需要用 科技來輔助它們

that accelerate and amplify natural processes

能夠加速跟放大自然作用的科技

to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

來移除大氣的二氧化碳

Enter the members of my new favorite boy band.

在此引進我最近的死忠男團

DAC, BECCS and BiCRS.

直接空氣碳捕獲(DAC)、生物能源與碳捕獲和儲存(BECCS) 跟生物體碳移除與儲存(BiCRS)

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

These are a set of engineered approaches

這些是一組的工程方法

that use physical, chemical and biological processes

利用物理、化學與生物作用

to gather and concentrate carbon dioxide from the atmosphere

來集中跟濃縮大氣中的二氧化碳

before safely sequestering it, usually underground.

再安全的將它隔離起來 通常在地底

As more people run the climate math,

當更多人開始計算氣候的數字

you're seeing growing levels of interest and investment in these technologies,

你正看見這些科技的興趣與投資在成長

with billions of dollars already being committed to early pilots

數十億的資金已經投入在早期試驗

and installations in various parts of the world,

及世界各地的建設中

particularly in Europe and North America.

尤其是在歐洲和北美

But the reality is they have a very long way to go.

但現實是他們還有很長一段路要走

To date, engineered removals around the world

至今世界各地的工程碳移除

have accounted for something like 100,000 tons

也不過佔了大概十萬噸的

of carbon dioxide removed total.

總碳移除量

To get to the multi-billion-ton scale we’re going to need by 2050

如果要達成我們2050年需要 的數十億噸數量級

is going to take a truly epic process of exponential scaling.

將會需要一個史詩級的 指數型成長過程

Probably means we need to get to something --

約莫代表著如果我們想要達成什麼

If we want to have a realistic shot at it,

如果我們想要真的有個機會

we need to get to something like 100 million tons per year by 2030.

我們在2030年前需達成大約 每年一億噸的速度

For those of you running the calculators,

給那些在按計算機的人

that's a thousand-fold increase in less than a decade.

我們十年內需要成長1000倍

And guess what?

猜猜還有什麼？

We will have to continue that insane rate of growth

我們會要繼續維持這個瘋狂的成長率

for another two decades after that.

在那之後的二十年

And here's the really bad news.

而且最糟的消息是

Anything close to that level of scaling of this industry

任何這個產業中 接近那個等級的規模成長

in the places where it’s currently being piloted

在那些他們正在被初期試驗的地方

presents some really difficult climate action trade offs.

會產生一些十分艱難的環境兩難

For that, let me take the example of DAC or direct air capture.

對於它，讓我用DAC，或直接空氣捕獲 打個比方

The best known DAC facility in the world is in Iceland.

世界上最為人所知的DAC設施在冰島

It's the Orca plant in Iceland, it was inaugurated last year, 2021.

那是冰島的Orca廠房 它去年（2021）被啟用

It uses plentiful green geothermal energy

它使用充足的永續地熱能

to capture carbon dioxide, dissolve it in water

來捕獲二氧化碳並將其溶於水中

and inject it into porous basalt deep underground,

再將它注射進深埋地底的多孔玄武岩

where it chemically reacts to create a stable solid

在那裡它會透過化學反應形成一個穩定的固體

that can stay there for centuries.

可以維持好幾個世紀

It takes the equivalent of between two and three megawatt hours of energy

現在這個過程需要二至三百萬瓦時

to take a single ton of carbon dioxide today

才能捕獲一公噸的二氧化碳

and render it in that way.

並讓它成為那樣

To get to the hundred million number in 2030,

如果要在2030年前達成每年一億噸的速度

on that track,

有望成功

would entail something like 200 to 300 terawatt hours of electricity.

會需要大約二至三百兆兆瓦時的電量

Again, that's about half the electricity usage of Germany.

又來了 那大約是德國一半的用電量

And all of that power would need to be renewable,

而且那些能源都會需要是可再生的

otherwise, we would be taking two steps forward

不然我們將會前進兩步

and one and a half steps back.

卻倒退一步半

Now it's reasonable to expect and assume

雖然現在可以合理的期待並假設

that we are going to see substantial improvements in energy efficiency

我們會看見能源利用效率上重大的進步

of these technologies

在這些科技中

as we deploy them and learn to use them better.

當我們部署並學習如何更佳的使用他們

However, keep in mind that probably

但應該要在腦海中有的想法是

the most urgent thing we can do to slow climate change right now

為延緩氣候變遷，最急迫的

is stop current emissions.

是停止現在的碳排放

And so scaling these technologies

在我們有化石能源產生的溫室氣體排放的地方

in places where we do have fossil fuel energy emissions

可以直接限縮溫室氣體排放

that we could be curtailing

提高這些科技的規模

does not make sense.

並不合理

Essentially, every unit of renewable energy

本質上，每單位

that we are bringing on stream in places like North America and Europe

我們在北美與歐洲等地 上線的可再生能源

should be going towards displacing

應該要投入置換

and retiring existing fossil fuel capacity.

與退役現在的化石能源容量

And so the world is kind of stuck.

所以世界有點卡住了

Right?

對吧？

We need to scale this technology.

我們需要規模化這項科技

We need to get DAC down the cost curve and up the efficiency curve urgently.

我們需要將DAC在成本曲線下降 在效率曲線上升

Our lives literally depend on it.

我們的性命確實就靠它了

But at the same time, we cannot do it

但在同時，我們做不到它

except at the expense of other equally urgent climate imperatives.

除非我們犧牲其他同樣緊急的氣候措施

So we need places in the world that somehow have three characteristics.

所以我們需要世界上有三項特色的地方

A, they need to have the right geophysical conditions.

A、它們需要有恰當的地球物理條件

You know, plenty of porous basalt rock in a geothermally active zone

你知道的，像在活動地熱區有 大量的多孔玄武岩

is one such example.

就是其中之一

Two, they need to have plenty of renewable energy potential.

二來，它們需要有大量的可再生能源潛力

And three,

第三點是

they need to have no current proximate emissions

它們需要沒有直接的溫室氣體排放

that that renewable energy could be used to displace.

是可再生能源可以頂替的

And that brings us back to Hell's Gate National Park.

而這就將我們帶回地獄門國家公園

Here's another view of the park

這是公園另一個視角的景觀

from an angle that may explain its potential.

從一個可以解釋它的潛力的角度

That is one of the power plants that together constitute

這是Olkaria地熱發電廠

the Olkaria Geothermal Energy Plant,

的其中一個發電站

which provides about a third of Kenya's electricity.

它提供了肯亞大概三分之一的電力

That's right.

那就對了

My home country not only has 92 percent renewable electricity

我的家鄉不但有百分之九十二的可再生電力

being dispatched on its grids today,

在輸電網上傳輸

but its largest single-energy installation

它最大的獨立能源設施

is seamlessly integrated into an honest-to-goodness national park.

無縫接軌在一個貨真價實的國家公園裡

Literally, between the different plants you can see herds of zebra

說真的，你可以在各種植物之間看到一群一群的斑馬

peacefully grazing all times of the day.

在一天的任何時段寧靜的吃草

It's amazing.

很驚人

Now at just under 1,000 megawatts,

如今接近1000百萬瓦的

Olkaria is nothing to sneeze at.

Olkaria並不是等閒之輩

It's one of the largest geothermal electricity installations in the world.

它是世界上最大的地熱電力設施之一

But it's barely scratching the surface of the potential in Kenya.

但是它只不過是肯亞潛能的最表層而已

There's 10 gigawatts of proven,

經證實國家中存在10百萬千瓦

high-quality geothermal resource in the country,

高品質的地熱能源

widely recognized, ready to be tapped.

廣泛被認可，亟需被利用

And in addition,

此外

Kenya is endowed with excellent wind and solar resources

肯亞也被上天賦予出色的風能與太陽能

that have also barely been exploited.

兩者都幾乎沒有被利用

We are on the equator, after all.

我們說到底還是在赤道上

We estimate conservatively that there's about 50 gigawatts

我們保守估計肯亞大約有50百萬千瓦

of potential deployable renewable energy in Kenya

的潛在可利用可再生能源

that can be readily accessed with the right level of investment.

只要有足額的投資 隨時都可以存取

And yet, Kenya remains an energy-poor country

但是肯亞卻依然是個能源不足的國家

where, despite a lot of progress in recent years,

即使近年有了很多的進步

more than a quarter of the population still does not have access

超過四分之一的人口依然沒有

to basic electricity.

基本供電

And those that do often pay prices that are almost three times as much

而那些有的人付的電價

as much as their counterparts in countries like India and China.

幾乎是他們印度跟中國同儕的三倍之多

Now you might be sitting there wondering,

現在你可能坐在那邊想

"Well, all right, James, if this is true,

「好，詹姆斯，如果這是真的

if Kenya has all of this renewable energy potential

如果肯亞真的有這麽多 潛在的可再生能源

and all of these people in need of energy,

跟這麽多需要能源的人

well, before we have this whole conversation about fancy climate tech,

那在我們討論高級氣候科技之前

shouldn’t we first have a TED Talk about affordable energy access?”

我們不是應該先舉辦一個 可負擔能源使用權的TED Talk嗎？」

And you would be right.

而你會是對的

Were it not for a particularly cruel paradox of energy economics

如果不是因為一個特別殘忍的環境經濟悖論

in countries like Kenya.

在像是肯亞的國家

You see, part of the reason why energy is so expensive in the country

你看 能源在國內這麼昂貴的部分原因

is those consumers who are on the grid

是這些在輸電網上的消費者

have to pay for capacity that is not currently being used.

需要為還沒被使用的電能付費

There's something like 1,000 megawatt hours every day that goes begging

每天約莫1000百萬瓦的電能無人問津

because there isn’t sufficient industrial demand.

因為沒有足夠的產業需求

At the same time,

於此同時

those very same high energy prices

那些高昂的電價

make the country unattractive and uncompetitive for manufacturers

讓國家對製造商沒有吸引力與競爭力

and other users of energy

對其他正在尋找設廠處的

looking for places to site their industries.

能源使用者也是

So to get this straight,

所以釐清這件事情

the reason why the average Kenyan cannot get affordable access

為何一般肯亞民眾無法用可以負擔的價格取得

to clean, renewable energy despite all of this natural bounty,

乾淨而可再生能源，即使有這麼多的自然寶藏

is this tremendously frustrating feedback loop where firstly,

是因為這個非常令人沮喪的回饋回圈 首先

we would have all of that energy

我們會有那全部的能源

if someone invested in renewable power plants.

如果有人願意投資可再生發電廠

People would invest in those power plants

有人願意投資可再生發電廠的前提是

if there was a lot of available industry to use the energy.

有很多產業需要使用能源

Available industry would come if energy costs weren’t so high.

有能源需求的產業如果 電價沒這麼高才會進駐

And energy costs wouldn’t be so high if there was enough demand.

如果需求量夠大電價就不會這麼高

It's enough to drive you crazy.

這足夠讓人瘋掉

But it also points the way to a potential huge triple opportunity.

但它也指向一個潛在的 龐大的三角機會

Firstly,

首先

introducing DAC and other energy-hungry climate technology

將DAC與其他大量需要 能源的氣候科技引進

into places like the Rift Valley

像是東非大裂谷的地方

would give them the space and capacity they need

這會給那些科技足夠的 空間和容量

to really scale to planetary levels.

去擴大到全球級的規模

With no competition,

沒有其他的競爭者

with none of the trade-offs they would face in other parts of the world.

也沒有他們在世界上其他地方 會需要面臨的犧牲

At the same time,

於此同時

having that energy-hungry anchor industry available

當有渴求能源的產業作為錨點

suddenly creates the basis on which people are willing to invest

就突然創造了人們願意投資的基礎

in expanding the country's renewable energy potential.

在擴展國家的可再生能源潛力上

Actually creating the business case

實際創造企業案件

for providing tens of millions of people

為提供數千萬計的人們

with the productive energy they need to improve the quality of their lives.

他們需要用來提升他們 生活品質的豐富能源

And thirdly,

第三者是

introducing these new and exciting technologies

引進這些新而令人興奮的科技

on the continent with the world's youngest and fastest-growing workforce

在有著世界最年輕也成長 最快的勞動力的大陸上

could potentially activate their imaginations

有機會激發他們的想像力

and their energies towards becoming climate innovators

跟他們的精力朝向成為氣候創新者

and solution builders themselves,

與解決方案建造者

basically building an army from the world's largest workforce

基本上就是利用世界上最大 的勞動力來建立軍隊

to solve the world's biggest problem.

以解決世界最大的問題

I call it the “Great Carbon Valley.”

我叫它「大碳谷」

And it's just one of the ways in which Africa, as the continent,

而它只是其中一種 非洲作為一個大陸

which, per capita, is the closest to net-zero

單位人口最接近零碳排放

and has contributed the least to climate change,

對氣候變遷貢獻最少

can play a role in helping the planet avert climate disaster.

可以在幫助地球避免 氣候災難中擔任的角色

But in addition, it can do more

除此之外它還能做更多

and be the first continent to go substantially net-negative.

成為第一個顯著負碳排的洲

We're used to thinking about the continent in terms of its forests,

我們習慣以需要保存的

its peatlands, its grasslands,

森林、泥炭地、草地及濕地

its wetlands that need to be preserved.

來思考這片大陸

And we should definitely continue to invest in the Indigenous communities,

我們也應該繼續投資當地的社區

the smallholder farmers and the local innovators

那些小農民與當地的創新者

who are protecting and expanding natural carbon sinks.

因為他們正在保護跟擴大自然碳庫

But that should not blind us to the fact

但是這不應該阻礙我們看到事實

that Africa also provides an ideal potential home

非洲能夠提供一個理想的可能歸宿

for scaling the latest and most ambitious of climate technologies.

給最新也最有抱負的氣候科技增加規模

Whichever of these narratives most speaks to you,

不論你對以上哪一個敘述 最有共鳴

one thing should be clear.

有一件事情應該要是清楚的

We need to shake the old, tired idea

我們必須擺脫那個老套的想法

that Africa is a poor, hapless, helpless climate change victim.

説非洲是一個窮，倒楣 而無助的環境變遷受害者

Instead, Africa and its people have the potential.

其實非洲與它的人民有潛能

They can, and they should, be the world’s climate vanguard.

他們可以，也應該是世界的氣候先鋒

Thank you.

謝謝大家

(Applause and cheers)

（掌聲與歡呼）