Mangroves, Storm Walls and Other Ways to Protect Coasts from Climate Change | Dave Sivaprasad | TED

翻译人员: Sue Lu 校对人员: Carol Wang

So 40 percent of the world’s population live near the coast.

全世界 40% 的人口 居住在沿海地区，

So you’ve got sea level rise, intense storms

不得不面临海平面上升、 沿海的密集风暴等等。

and, by some estimates,

据估计，

half a billion to a billion people will be adversely affected

五到十亿人会受到

by what's going to happen in the coast.

这些自然灾害的影响。

But that's not the only problem.

但问题还不止这些，

It's a bit more complicated than that.

实际情况更复杂。

It's not just storms are increasing,

不仅风暴的频发率增加，

sea level rise is going to flood these areas.

海平面上升也将淹没这些沿海地区，

You have secondary issues,

接下来是次生问题，

such as acidification that's going to damage coral reefs

例如海洋酸化会破坏珊瑚礁

and natural systems.

和自然生态系统。

You have changing wind patterns because ocean temperatures are increasing

因为海洋温度上升， 风向规律也随之改变。

and storms are getting more intense and also more unpredictable.

风暴更加剧烈，且更难预测。

And on top of that, you've got increased rainfall

还有，降雨和洪水

and flooding that is happening deeper in the coast

在离海岸线较远的沿海居民区

in coastal communities.

也有所增加。

This is a big problem.

这是很严重的问题，

And it's a personal problem for me as well.

也是我个人很关注的问题。

I'm from Singapore, an island state in Southeast Asia.

我来自新加坡，一个东南亚的岛国，

Many coastal communities.

它有很多沿海的居民区。

I worry about what's going to happen to my region,

我很担心我家乡的未来，

how it's going to impact my family.

担心这些自然灾害对我家庭的影响。

I've got three boys that, you know, have grown up along the coast.

我有三个儿子，都是在海边长大的。

And with that, I've spent the last two years

因此，过去两年，

helping countries and coastal communities build resilience against climate change.

我一直在帮助各国和沿海居民区 建立防护措施，应对气候变化。

What's the challenge?

我们面临的挑战是什么呢？

The challenge is no two coasts are alike.

是海岸的个异性 —— 没有任何两个海岸是相同的。

They are highly diverse, physically diverse.

它们在地形等方面差别很大，

They have different distributions of populations.

它们的人口分布不一，

And they are socioeconomically different

居民区的社会经济

in terms of the communities that live there.

也各有各的特色。

Now, there are many solutions to protect the coast.

目前有很多保护海岸的解决方法。

You have seawalls, storm barriers.

例如筑造海堤、风暴屏障、

We can restore mangroves.

重建红树林。

And this can protect the coast.

这些方法都能保护海岸。

The challenge is not so much the solutions.

所以，问题不在于 有无解决方法，

The challenge is actually what's the right mix of solutions

而在于怎样综合利用 不同的解决方法，

that fits the local context

因地制宜，

and delivers the highest socioeconomic return.

从而带来最高的 社会经济回报。

Now, let me illustrate this with an example.

下面让我用一个实例来解释。

I worked with a government in Southeast Asia,

我曾与东南亚的一个政府合作，

a country with a large population, diverse set of islands,

那个国家人口众多， 有各式各样的岛屿群，

many coastal communities, spread across.

沿海居民区遍布全国。

And one region in particular faced a complex interplay of challenges.

有个地区问题尤其复杂：

Rising sea levels that were causing permanent flooding.

海平面上升导致其持续性洪水泛滥，

Increasing storms that were damaging the coast.

频发的风暴日益毁坏着海岸。

A large proportion of vulnerable people, in poverty, living in low-lying areas.

它的大部分弱势人口 生活贫困，且居住在低洼地区。

On top of that, land subsidence had made matters worse.

再加之土地下陷问题， 整个情况非常糟糕。

So we worked with the government to model the impact of climate change

于是我们和政府合作，

模拟气候变化将对未来 几十年产生的影响，

over the coming decades

to answer questions like:

以找出以下问题的答案：

Which parts of the coast will be flooded?

哪部分海岸会被洪水淹没？

Which populations will be impacted?

哪些人群会受到影响？

Where would schools, hospitals, critical infrastructure be damaged?

哪些学校、医院 和重要基础设施会受到破坏？

How would this impact crops, water systems?

农作物和供水系统 会受到影响吗？

What would be the impact on natural ecosystems

对这个国家至关重要的自然生态系统

that are important to this country.

又会产生哪些影响？

And importantly, what this did was that it combined climate science

重要的是，我们的模拟 结合了气象科学

with data analytics,

和数据分析，

with local context,

针对当地实际情况，

and linked it to socioeconomic impact.

并与社会经济效应挂钩。

Now, to give an example, one particular community faced the risk

好，让我们来看看这个例子，

一个社区面临着十万人口 将流离失所的危险，

of 100,000 people potentially being displaced

because of increasing sea levels.

那是海平面上升导致的。

Eight percent of the economy

8% 的经济效益

and almost half of the region's wetland reserves

以及该地区将近一半的 湿地自然保护区，

were at risk of being damaged.

都有可能遭受损害。

Now, in addition, with this insight

了解这些之后，

the government was able to better understand the knock-on effects

政府就能更好地 理解连锁效应将带给

that this would have on public health, on food security,

公共健康、食品安全、

on forced migration.

以及强制性移民的影响。

So a lot of issues.

有很多问题啊。

So what do you do about that?

那你该怎么应对？

我是说，面对这种大规模生存危机， 而你努力解决的效果及前景并不清晰。

I mean, this massive exposure and no clear answers in what you do,

and in a developing economy such as this,

并且在这种发展中国家，

massive trade-offs that you need to manage in terms of where you deploy resources.

在资源配置方面 你有太多的方方面面要权衡。

So ...

所以，

Initially this region was looking at building seawalls,

最初这个地区曾考虑筑造海堤，

having early warning systems, storm barriers in place

建立早期预警系统， 修建风暴屏障，

that required a fair bit of capital and investment.

但那需要不少的资本和投资。

In fact, what we found was that a mix of solutions were needed.

实际上，我们发觉最好的做法 是综合利用现有的各种解决方法。

So that included mangrove restoration in selected areas as natural defense

因此我们选了一些区域 重建红树林作为自然防风墙，

and only in certain parts of the coast

又选了一部分海岸

investing to build storm barriers and seawalls.

为其筑造风暴屏障和海堤。

Now with that, the region could consider --

现在，这个地区就可以考虑

with the same amount of resources, maximizing lives saved,

如何用同样多的资源， 最大限度挽救生命，

livelihoods protected and ecosystem safeguarded.

保障民生，保护生态系统。

And on top of this, the cost of inaction, of not doing anything,

除此之外，不作为、不做事的代价

also meant massive negative impact for the private sector.

意味着国家经济的)私营部分 也会受到极大危害。

So private enterprises would have had billions of dollars of losses

私营企业会遭受几十亿美元的损失，

with manufacturing, with critical infrastructure,

如制造业、重要的基建设施、

with commercial real estate being damaged.

还有商业房地产受到的损害。

Now, having a visibility on this,

看清了这点，

the government could then engage the private sector

政府就应该和私营企业联手

on codeveloping and cofunding solutions

投资开发解决危机的方案，

that benefitted both private enterprise

从而保护到私营企业

and the local community.

和它们所在的当地社区。

Now, this is not a problem only in Southeast Asia.

目前，这并非仅仅是东南亚的问题，

A city in West Africa, for example, had similar challenges

西非的一个城市就面临类似的挑战，

but compounded with very dense populations along the coast,

而且问题更棘手 —— 其海岸线人口非常密集、

severe land subsidence

土地严重下陷；

and drainage challenges

排水系统问题也日趋恶化，

that were exacerbated by poor solid waste management

原因就是部分市区

in some parts of the city.

固体废物管理不善。

Now by integrating climate science data analytics to local context

当地政府于是也采用了这个模式， 结合气象科学和数据分析、

and tightly linking this to socioeconomic impact,

针对当地实情、 并与社会经济效应挂钩，

the government was able to manage the trade-offs

市政府做到了权衡各方，

on how you would balance the deployment of resources

平衡资源配置。

to things such as:

例如：

Do I build more drainage infrastructure?

是否修建更多的排水系统设施？

Do I relocate some populations to other parts?

是否将部分人口迁居？

Do I build storm barriers?

是否修建风暴屏障？

What's the right mix?

怎样综合利用各种解决方法最好？

Now as you can see, this is a challenging and complex problem.

现在你明白了吧，这是非常 具挑战性、非常复杂的问题。

And when you look at it,

你会发现，

the challenge is every coast that you look at is different.

最大的挑战就是海岸的各异性。

Right? They're socioeconomically, physically different.

对吧？它们地形不同， 社会经济状况也不相同。

And the most pressing challenges are often in developing countries

最紧迫的问题 常常出现在发展中国家，

where they have limited capacity to adapt

因为它们的能力资源有限，

and they have big trade-offs to manage.

还得设法权衡很多方面。

On top of this, there are many technical solutions

在此基础上，有许多技术解决方案

and natural solutions out there.

和自然解决方案。

You can protect the coast with mangrove restoration,

保护海岸线， 你可以重建红树林，

seawalls, storm barriers.

筑造海堤，修建风暴屏障。

You can accommodate by flood-proofing buildings,

你还可以给楼房做防洪加固，

building drainage.

修建排水系统，

You can relocate people and critical infrastructure.

以及迁移人口和关键的基建设施。

The challenge is not so much what are these solutions,

所以，问题的关键 不在于有无解决方法，

rather what's the right mix of solutions for any given context.

而在于如何综合利用多种 解决方法以达到最优当地化效应。

So by combining climate science, data analytics,

综上所述，如果结合 气象科学、数据分析，

to local considerations, tightly to socioeconomic outcomes,

因地制宜，与当地 社会经济效应挂钩，

decision makers can really balance the trade-offs

决策者就能够平衡 需要权衡的各方面，

and take the right actions over time

制定出长期的正确行动方案，

to be able to maximize lives saved,

从而最大限度拯救生命，

livelihoods protected and natural ecosystems saved.

保障民生和挽救自然生态系统。

So with that ...

如此，

we could protect more people along the coast

我们即能保护更多沿海居民，

and optimize the outcomes.

又能取得最优化成效。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）