The Climate Crisis Is Expensive – Here’s Who Should Pay for It | Avinash Persaud | TED

翻译人员: Chen Xuan 校对人员: Lening Xu

I want to present to you the Bridgetown Initiative.

我要向大家介绍布里奇顿倡议。

It’s a pragmatic, ambitious plan to save the world

这是一份富有实效又 雄心勃勃的拯救世界的计划，

that's been gaining surprising traction.

它正获得令人惊讶的关注。

I’m going to start with a “who,” move to the “what” and “where” we are.

我将从“谁”开始，接着到“什么”， 以及我们身处“哪里”。

I came late to climate.

我较晚涉足气候研究。

I wasn't a skeptic.

我不是一个批判家，

I'm an economist.

我是一个经济学家。

We believe that if we don't value something well enough,

经济学家相信，如果我们 无法正确地给一样东西估价，

we tend to overconsume it.

我们会倾向于过度消耗它。

I believe that.

我坚信这一点。

I just wasn't seized by a compulsion to do something about it myself

我那时并没有 想为此做些什么的冲动，

until September 18, 2017.

直到 2017 年 9 月 18 日。

I was sitting in the departure lounge of JFK,

我正坐在肯尼迪机场的出发休息室里，

waiting to go home to Bridgetown, Barbados,

等待着回巴巴多斯布里奇顿的家，

nursing a coffee,

细品着一杯咖啡，

and my phone buzzes.

然后我的手机响了起来。

And it's Mia Amor Mottley,

是米娅·阿莫尔·莫特利 （Mia Amor Mottley），

college friend and then-leader of the opposition of Barbados.

我的大学朋友和 当时巴巴多斯的反对党党魁。

“Go to Dominica now,” she says. Our neighboring island.

“现在去多米尼克。”她说到。 那是我们邻近的岛屿。

"They've just been smashed by Hurricane Maria.

“他们刚遭受飓风玛利亚的重创，

They need all the help they can get.

需要一切他们可以得到的帮助。

Time for you to step into the shoes of that previous generation

是时候接替上一辈

of influential development economists.

有影响力的发展经济学家承担责任了。

Just like your dad."

如同你的父亲一样。”

She's compassionate, super smart,

她有同情心，非常精明，

and obviously a good politician

很明显是一位优秀的政治家，

because I am on a UN relief plane the next day,

因为我第二天就在 一架联合国的救灾飞机上，

doing a hairpin turn to land on the emergency airstrip in Dominica.

拐了一个急转弯， 就降落在了多米尼克的应急跑道上。

The pilot's last mission was dodging missiles in Syria,

这位机长的上一个任务 是在叙利亚躲避导弹，

so I'm feeling fairly safe.

所以我感到挺安全的。

I have my head wedged against the window transfixed of what's below.

我的头倚靠着窗户， 我被下方的状况惊呆了。

A hurricane can release the energy of 10,000 nuclear bombs.

一场飓风可以释放 相当于一万颗核弹的能量，

And below me is a nuclear wasteland.

而我的下方就（如同）核爆的荒地。

Pointing up towards me are a million thin white sticks.

向上直直指向我的是 数百万根细细的白杆。

Takes me a moment to realize they’re trees stripped bare of all branches,

我过了一会儿才意识到， 它们是被剥离了所有的枝杈、

leaves and bark.

树叶与树皮的树木。

When we land,

当我们着陆时，

I’m assaulted by the smell of burning and decomposition.

我被焚烧与腐坏的气味深深刺痛。

And something else it takes me a while longer to work out.

还有一件事， 我又花了一会儿才发现，

I'm on a tropical island,

我在一个通常应该充满了

normally teeming with birds and insects and color,

鸟儿、昆虫与色彩的热带岛屿上，

in deathly, monochrome silence.

而它此时却处在死沉、单调的寂静中。

The birds have gone.

鸟儿已经离去，

The land is emptied.

地面空空如也。

Later, Dominica's Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit says,

之后，多米尼克总理 罗斯福·斯凯里特说：

"Dominicans have lost everything money can buy

“在四个小时内，多米尼克人民失去了 所有金钱可以买来的东西。”

in four hours."

The government's job was to make them feel that what was left

政府的工作是让人们感到，

was the valuable stuff --

剩下的才是那些有价值的——

community, family, hope -- and to help them repair.

社群、家庭、希望， 并且帮助他们重建。

Because if despair set in,

因为如果绝望侵袭的话，

then a bad, bad situation would get worse.

将会雪上加霜。

Early on I work out that the way to get recovery funds flowing

我很早发现能让重建资金流动的方法

is to make Dominica matter to the world.

就是让多米尼克对世界变得重要。

So Dominica declares they will rebuild

所以多米尼克宣布，

他们将重建成为世界上 第一个气候变化韧性国家。

as the world's first climate-resilient nation.

They dust themselves off, stand tall and resolute,

他们洗去自己身上的风尘， 坚毅地挺直脊梁，

and invite the world's experts in.

并邀请世界的专家们参与进来。

Turns out, the Dominicans have the real insights.

事实上，多米尼克人民 有着真正的洞察力。

We made a list of all the things they had to do

我们列举了一系列他们在灾难后

in the immediate aftermath of the disaster

需要做的事情，

and asked what would they have to do now

并询问他们现在该做什么

so they wouldn't have to do that next time around.

以确保下次不再需要重复 这样繁琐的工作。

And the answers kept on heading higher.

我们得到的答案一个比一个好。

Energy and health resilient systems.

有韧性的能源以及医疗系统。

National and regional food security

国家和区域的粮食安全，

and then the global,

然后是全球粮食安全，

because there's no real alternative to halting climate change.

因为除了阻止气候变化之外， 没有其他真正的选择。

And that's why the world's biggest plan, the Bridgetown Initiative,

而这也是为什么世界上最庞大的计划， 布里奇顿倡议，

comes partly from the world's smallest countries.

部分来自世界上最小的国家。

And it actually makes even more sense to that,

这实际上更说得通，

because tropical places are where temperatures,

因为热带地区是高温、干旱、 以及海平面升高

droughts and sea levels will rise to their highest, most extreme levels.

发生最严重、最极端的地区。

We are the canaries in the mine

我们是矿井里的金丝雀，

and we can see there's no point gasping for air for ourselves.

而我们知道独自挣扎已经没用了。

We have to save the mine.

我们必须拯救环境。

And we can also see what’s getting in the way,

我们也能看到面前的阻碍，

because whilst most people believe climate change is here

因为虽然大多数人认为气候变化 已经到来，正在发生，迫在眉睫，

and happening and urgent,

they also believe someone else should be doing more about it.

他们同样认为其他人应该对此负责。

Rich countries are electrifying, shifting, reducing,

发达国家正在进行 电气化、转型和减排，

so much so that the majority of greenhouse gas emissions,

导致现在大部分的碳排放（63%）， 而且不断攀升，

63 percent and climbing,

are now coming from developing countries.

全部来自于发展中国家。

There is now no pathway

如果发展中国家不进行绿色转型，

to avoid the world's destabilizing planetary systems

without the green transformation of developing countries.

就无法避免地球系统的不稳定。

The rich say to the poor,

富裕国家告诉贫穷国家：

"You need to ban emissions, tax carbon,

“你们需要禁止碳排放，征碳排放税，

shift into renewables and get with the program."

转换成可再生能源， 并积极参与节能减排项目。“

But that would slow the growth of developing countries.

但这会减缓发展中国家的发展速度。

They'd have to borrow a lot at very high interest rates

他们需要以很高的利率借很多钱，

to invest in the new, decommission the old,

来投资新系统，停用老系统，

find new jobs for old coal miners and more.

为老煤矿工找到新的工作等等。

And why should they?

他们为什么要这么做呢？

The rich cause global warming.

造成全球变暖的是发达国家。

They're responsible for 70 percent

他们排放了大气层中 70% 的温室气体

of the stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

for using up 60 percent of the world's carbon budget.

使用了全球 60% 的碳预算。

You can't scoff 60 percent of the cake and then say afterwards,

你不能吃掉 60% 的蛋糕后说，

"Well, we all need to cut back now."

“好吧，现在我们都要少吃一点了”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Don't cement inequality.

不要加剧不平等。

(Applause)

（掌声）

"Don't cement inequality," the poor say, "Send aid."

“不要加剧不平等”， 那些贫穷国家说，“帮助我们吧”

The problem is that all of the aid in the world

问题是世界上所有能够提供的援助

will not fund one twelfth of the green transformation

还不够资助十二分一发展中国家

in developing countries.

绿色转型的的金额。

And rich-country governments are not getting elected

而发达国家政府不是被选来

to send money to foreigners.

向外国人汇款的。

They're getting elected to deport foreigners.

而是被选来将他们驱逐出境。

So we're stuck, staring at each other,

所以我们陷入了两难的境地，

pointing fingers whilst the world burns.

在世界陷入灾难时互相指责。

I figured that the way to break this impasse

我认为打破僵局的办法是，

is if we stop only looking at ourselves

如果我们不再只关注自己，

and make the cost of resilience so cheap,

让韧性成本如此低廉，

the flow of finance after a disaster so immediate,

让灾难后的资金流动如此迅速，

the green transformation of developing countries so profitable,

让发展中国家的绿色转型如此有利可图，

that we turn reluctance into a scramble.

那我们可以把不情愿变成争先恐后。

There's no extra time.

没有更多的时间了。

We're on countdown.

我们正在倒计时中。

And that is the essence of the Bridgetown Initiative.

这就是布里奇顿倡议的精华。

During COVID and the global financial crisis,

新冠病毒和全球经济危机期间，

rich countries purchased 24 trillion dollars

发达国家购买了 价值 24 万亿美元的债券

of bonds to pump their economy.

来推动他们的经济。

If instead, they'd purchased 24 trillion dollars of bonds

如果相反，他们购买 24 万亿美元的债券

that finance renewable energies,

来资助可再生能源，

we would have had the same economic impact

我们会得到一样的经济效益，

and be halfway to halting climate change already.

并且已经完成延缓 全球变暖的一半进程了。

And we would have reduced our inflationary dependence

而我们也会减少对石油和煤炭的依赖 所带来的通货膨胀，

on oil and coal,

all within 12 years.

一切都能在 12 年内完成。

The power of what we can do when it matters to us is unlimited.

我们在对待自己在意的事情时 能力是无限的。

So here's the financing plan

所以这个融资方案

that does not rely on the altruism of financiers and insurers,

不依赖于金融家和保险公司的利他主义，

is not based on some unproven tech

不基于一些未经证实的技术，

and does not skirt around our common but different responsibilities.

也不绕过我们共同但又不同的责任。

Picture three buckets.

想象你的面前有三个桶。

Small, medium and large.

分别是小型，中型和大型的。

The smallest is actually the hardest to fund.

最小的桶其实是最难支持的事情。

It's all of those things that don't generate any savings or profits.

它是那些不会带来节省或收益的事情。

It's rebuilding the homes of low-income families

比如重建因极端气候，

that are being washed away by climate events.

被灾难冲走的低收入家庭的住房。

It's rebuilding, recovering their livelihoods,

还有重建、维持他们的生计，

their clinics, their schools.

他们的诊所，他们的学校。

And climate change, remember,

而气候变化，请记住，

is the increasing certainty of rising losses.

是越来越确定的不断增加的损失。

It's uninsurable.

它是无法投保的。

So we need new sources of public finance.

所以我们需要新的公共财产的来源。

We need new emission taxes on oil and coal and methane.

我们需要新的石油、煤炭、甲烷的排放税。

At the Mottley-Macron Summit in June in Paris,

六月于巴黎举行的由 莫特利和马克龙共同主持的峰会中，

we made some progress towards taxing emissions on the shipping industry.

我们在航运业的排放税中取得了进展。

We need more.

但这还不够。

And we need a small financial transaction tax,

我们需要小额的金融交易税，

like the one you don't even realize you're paying today,

就像你察觉不到自己正在付的那个一样，

that covers the cost of the US SEC.

覆盖美国证券交易委员会的费用。

And energy and finance consumption is slanted to the rich.

能源和金融消费都想富人倾斜。

The second bucket is for those things that don't generate revenues

第二个桶装着那些不会带来收益

but generate immediate savings.

但是能立即产生节省的事情。

If I invest a dollar of borrowed money on stronger seawalls,

如果我借了一美元并投资在 建造更结实的海堤，

more muscular flood defenses, more resilient health systems,

更强壮的防洪堤坝， 更有韧性的医疗系统上，

I save several dollars.

我其实能节省了不少钱。

So we need the international multilateral development banks,

因此我们需要国际多边开发银行，

like the World Bank,

像世界银行这样的，

to lend three times more on the Sustainable Development Goals

为可持续发展目标提供三倍的贷款，

and to make that debt cheap by making it longer and lower-cost.

并通过长期限和低利率 来降低债务成本。

They can get halfway there

通过运用他们已有的资源

by using the resources they already have.

已经可以完成一半事情。

They're very conservative.

他们非常保守。

And the other half,

而另一半事情，

they need rich countries to put in a little bit more capital.

需要富有的国家多投入一些资本。

Now, some people criticize me for saying,

当然，肯定有人会批评我说，

why are you going for cheap loans rather than grants?

为什么你不支持补贴 而支持低息贷款？

And I say, if you found a trillion dollars stuffed behind the sofa, then OK.

我说，如果你在沙发后面找到 一万亿美元，那固然很好。

But grants will never be enough.

但是补贴永远不够。

And so let's focus our grants on those things

所以让我们把补贴用于

that can't be funded any other way

那些因为不能带来节省或收益，

because there's no savings and profits.

而无法通过任何其他方式获得资金的事情。

The final bucket,

最后一个桶，

the biggest bucket, is for those things for which there is a revenue attached.

也就是最大的桶，是为了那些 能够带来收益的事情。

But before I go to that, on the second bucket at Paris,

但是在谈论这个桶之前， 我必须回到上一个桶里，

at the Motley-Macron Summit,

在巴黎的莫特利-马克龙峰会中，

we got a commitment of an extra 20 billion dollars of lending a year,

我们得到承诺每年额外 提供 200 亿美元的贷款，

a start.

这是一个开始。

The third bucket, the biggest, revenue.

第三个桶，最大的、能产生收益的桶。

Solar farms, wind turbines,

包括太阳能发电场，风力发电机，

they make money whilst reducing greenhouse gases.

减少温室气体排放的同时 还能产生收益。

In the rich countries,

在发达国家中，

81 percent of that is funded by the private sector.

81% 的项目都是私有公司投资的。

If we want developing countries to move faster than rich countries do,

如果我们想要发展中国家 比富有的国家发展更迅速，

then we want those investors to go to the developing world.

那我们需要这些投资者来到发展中国家。

They don't today

目前他们并没有来，

because of the high cost of guaranteeing their returns

因为保证他们的回报

against the fluctuation of currencies.

免受货币波动的影响的成本很高。

However, history shows

然而，历史告诉我们，

that an international agency capitalized by rich countries

一个由富裕国家资本化的国际机构，

that takes a diversified view across time and countries

在不同时期和不同国家采取多元化的组合，

can lower the cost without losing money ...

可以在不损失资金的情况下降低成本， 从而畅通投资流动。

by enough to unblock the flow of investments.

And a small group of countries have agreed to move on a pilot this year.

一小部分国家已同意今年进行试点。

Three buckets: small one for costs,

三个桶：小的里是成本，

middle one for savings,

中型的是节省，

big one for revenues.

大型的是收益。

There are a couple of things we also need to do that doesn't cost money.

还有一些不花钱的事情我们需要做。

We need Barbados-style pause clauses in all debt instruments.

我们需要在所有债务工具中加入 巴巴多斯式的暂停条款。

When a disaster hits, you suspend --

当灾难来袭时，你暂停 -

your interest payments and debt repayments are suspended for two years,

你的利息支付和债务偿还两年，

added back on to later when you can afford it.

等到你负担得起的时候再还回去。

It will release billions of dollars and reshape the financial system.

这将释放数十亿美元并重塑金融体系。

And as Prime Minister Mottley says,

就像莫特利总统所说，

if we want these institutions that were set up in the colonial era,

如果我们想要延续这些在 殖民时期建立的机构，

if we want to trust them to save the world,

如果我们相信他们能拯救世界，

then the people they serve cannot be invisible in the halls of power.

那他们所服务的人民 就不能在权力的殿堂里隐形。

(Applause)

（掌声）

So the impasse is cracking.

所以僵局被打破了。

I got on that plane to Dominica because of my dad.

我来到多米尼克是为了我的父亲。

Not because of his profession, but because he was a dad.

不是因为他的职业， 而是因为他是我的父亲。

I remember asking him once,

我记得有一次我问过他，

when I was being asked to join an unpopular cause

当时我被要求加入一个 不受欢迎的事业，

that was going to hurt my career,

这会损害我的职业生涯，

and I was half hoping he would say, "No, son, that's silly."

我半信半疑地希望他会说， “不，儿子，这太傻了。

Instead, he said gently,

他却温柔地说，

"Avi, you've got to be a player in this life."

“阿维，你人生里总要当一次冒险家”

So here I am.

因此我站在了这里。

Please join us.

请加入我们。

(Applause)

（掌声）