The Climate Crisis Is Expensive – Here’s Who Should Pay for It | Avinash Persaud | TED

譯者: 麗玲 辛

I want to present to you the Bridgetown Initiative.

我想向大家介紹「布里奇頓倡議」。

It’s a pragmatic, ambitious plan to save the world

這個務實但雄心勃勃拯救世界的計劃

that's been gaining surprising traction.

正獲得驚人的關注。

I’m going to start with a “who,” move to the “what” and “where” we are.

我將從「人」開始，然後談到 現狀的「事」和「地」。

I came late to climate.

我對氣候議題的認識有些晚，

I wasn't a skeptic.

不是我持懷疑態度。

I'm an economist.

我是經濟學者，

We believe that if we don't value something well enough,

經濟學者相信， 如果人們不夠重視某件事物，

we tend to overconsume it.

就會過度揮霍。

I believe that.

我相信這一點。

I just wasn't seized by a compulsion to do something about it myself

不過，直到 2017 年 9 月 18 日，

until September 18, 2017.

我才有自發的衝動， 敦促自己採取行動。

I was sitting in the departure lounge of JFK,

那天我坐在肯尼迪國際機場的候機室，

waiting to go home to Bridgetown, Barbados,

等搭機回巴貝多的布里奇頓，

nursing a coffee,

慢慢喝著咖啡，

and my phone buzzes.

這時手機響起。

And it's Mia Amor Mottley,

是米亞·莫特里，

college friend and then-leader of the opposition of Barbados.

她是我大學的朋友， 當時是巴貝多的反對黨領袖。

“Go to Dominica now,” she says. Our neighboring island.

她說：「你現在去 我們的鄰國多米尼克吧!

"They've just been smashed by Hurricane Maria.

他們剛剛遭受了瑪麗亞颶風的襲擊。

They need all the help they can get.

他們亟需所有的幫助。

Time for you to step into the shoes of that previous generation

你該接替上一代人的腳步，

of influential development economists.

做個有影響力的發展經濟學家，

Just like your dad."

就像你爸爸一樣。」

She's compassionate, super smart,

她富有同情心，超級聰明，

and obviously a good politician

顯然也是一位優秀的政治家，

because I am on a UN relief plane the next day,

因為第二天我就搭聯合國救援飛機，

doing a hairpin turn to land on the emergency airstrip in Dominica.

急轉彎降落在多米尼加的緊急跑道上。

The pilot's last mission was dodging missiles in Syria,

因為飛行員上一次任務 是閃避敘利亞的飛彈，

so I'm feeling fairly safe.

所以我覺得這次相當安全。

I have my head wedged against the window transfixed of what's below.

我把頭靠在窗戶上， 呆呆地看著下面的景象。

A hurricane can release the energy of 10,000 nuclear bombs.

一場颶風可以釋放出 等同一萬枚核彈的能量，

And below me is a nuclear wasteland.

而我的腳下就是一片核災區。

Pointing up towards me are a million thin white sticks.

數百萬根白色細枝向上朝著我，

Takes me a moment to realize they’re trees stripped bare of all branches,

我花了一點時間才意識到

那是被剝去了所有樹枝、 葉子和樹皮的樹木。

leaves and bark.

When we land,

我們著陸時，

I’m assaulted by the smell of burning and decomposition.

燒焦和腐爛的氣味襲來。

And something else it takes me a while longer to work out.

還有一些其他的味道， 我過了更久才弄清楚是什麼。

I'm on a tropical island,

在熱帶島嶼上，

normally teeming with birds and insects and color,

通常到處都是鳥類、昆蟲和色彩，

in deathly, monochrome silence.

但現在是一片死灰、單色調的寂靜。

The birds have gone.

小鳥不見了。

The land is emptied.

土地上什麼都沒有。

Later, Dominica's Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit says,

後來，多米尼克的總理 羅斯福·斯凱里特說，

"Dominicans have lost everything money can buy

「多米尼克人民在那四小時 失去所有金錢買得到的東西。」

in four hours."

The government's job was to make them feel that what was left

政府的任務是讓人民感到

僅存的東西還有價值， 社區、家庭、希望，

was the valuable stuff --

community, family, hope -- and to help them repair.

並幫助他們重建。

Because if despair set in,

因為一旦絕望降臨，

then a bad, bad situation would get worse.

糟糕的局勢將變得更糟。

Early on I work out that the way to get recovery funds flowing

我很快就明白，

恢復資金流動的方法是 讓多米尼克對世界變得重要。

is to make Dominica matter to the world.

So Dominica declares they will rebuild

所以多米尼克宣布他們將重建，

as the world's first climate-resilient nation.

成為世界上第一個 具有氣候適應能力的國家。

They dust themselves off, stand tall and resolute,

他們撣去身上的塵土， 挺起胸膛，堅定不移，

and invite the world's experts in.

並邀請世界上的專家加入。

Turns out, the Dominicans have the real insights.

事實證明，多米尼加人真有遠見。

We made a list of all the things they had to do

我們列出了

他們在災後必須立即採取的所有措施，

in the immediate aftermath of the disaster

and asked what would they have to do now

並詢問他們，現在該做那些事， 這樣下次就不必再做。

so they wouldn't have to do that next time around.

And the answers kept on heading higher.

答案不斷增加。

Energy and health resilient systems.

具有能源和健康修復力的系統、

National and regional food security

國家和區域食品安全、

and then the global,

然後是全球層級，

because there's no real alternative to halting climate change.

因為沒有真正的替代方案 可以阻止氣候變化。

And that's why the world's biggest plan, the Bridgetown Initiative,

這就是世界最大規模的計劃 「布里奇頓倡議」，

comes partly from the world's smallest countries.

其實部分源自世界上 最小國家的原由。

And it actually makes even more sense to that,

事實上，這更合理，

because tropical places are where temperatures,

因為熱帶地區正是

氣溫、乾旱和海平面上升 達到最高、最極端的地方。

droughts and sea levels will rise to their highest, most extreme levels.

We are the canaries in the mine

我們就是礦井裡的金絲雀，

and we can see there's no point gasping for air for ourselves.

我們知道，自己能夠喘氣沒有意義，

We have to save the mine.

我們必須拯救整個礦井。

And we can also see what’s getting in the way,

我們也看到眼前的阻礙，

because whilst most people believe climate change is here

雖然大多數人相信氣候變遷已經來臨，

and happening and urgent,

迫在眉睫，

they also believe someone else should be doing more about it.

但人們大多認為別人該採取更多行動。

Rich countries are electrifying, shifting, reducing,

富國正在電氣化、轉型、減量，

so much so that the majority of greenhouse gas emissions,

但現在大部分溫室氣體排放 （63%，還在攀升）

63 percent and climbing,

are now coming from developing countries.

來自發展中國家。

There is now no pathway

如果發展中國家沒有進行綠色轉型，

to avoid the world's destabilizing planetary systems

without the green transformation of developing countries.

全球系統的發展必然不穩。

The rich say to the poor,

富國對窮國說：

"You need to ban emissions, tax carbon,

「你們應該禁止排放，對碳進行課稅，

shift into renewables and get with the program."

轉向可再生能源，跟上潮流。」

But that would slow the growth of developing countries.

但這將減緩發展中國家的發展。

They'd have to borrow a lot at very high interest rates

這些國家被迫借貸，利率很高，

to invest in the new, decommission the old,

用於投資新能源，停用舊能源，

find new jobs for old coal miners and more.

為舊煤礦工人找到新工作等等。

And why should they?

為什麼他們得這樣做？

The rich cause global warming.

富國導致全球暖化。

They're responsible for 70 percent

大氣層中 70％ 的 溫室氣體是他們造成的，

of the stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

for using up 60 percent of the world's carbon budget.

他們也佔用全球碳預算的 60％。

You can't scoff 60 percent of the cake and then say afterwards,

你不能吃掉 60% 的蛋糕，才說，

"Well, we all need to cut back now."

「好哦，大家現在需要縮減囉。」

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Don't cement inequality.

拒絕鞏固不均。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

"Don't cement inequality," the poor say, "Send aid."

窮國說：「拒絕鞏固不均， 提供援助！」

The problem is that all of the aid in the world

問題是，全球所有的援助

will not fund one twelfth of the green transformation

加起來也不及發展中國家綠色轉型 所需資助的十二分之一。

in developing countries.

And rich-country governments are not getting elected

而且富國政府不是當選 去給外國人送錢的。

to send money to foreigners.

They're getting elected to deport foreigners.

人民選他們來驅逐外國人。

So we're stuck, staring at each other,

所以我們陷入困境，瞪著彼此，

pointing fingers whilst the world burns.

互相指責，而世界陷入水深火熱。

I figured that the way to break this impasse

我想出一個方法，來打破這個僵局，

is if we stop only looking at ourselves

如果我們不再只關注自己，

and make the cost of resilience so cheap,

並讓修復的成本變得低廉，

the flow of finance after a disaster so immediate,

災難發生後，資金流動變快，

the green transformation of developing countries so profitable,

發展中國家的綠色轉型有利可圖，

that we turn reluctance into a scramble.

這樣，勉為其難就會變成競相爭取。

There's no extra time.

時間不多了。

We're on countdown.

我們已經進入倒計時。

And that is the essence of the Bridgetown Initiative.

這就是布里奇頓倡議的本質。

During COVID and the global financial crisis,

在新冠肺炎疫情和全球金融危機期間，

rich countries purchased 24 trillion dollars

富裕國家購買了 24 萬億美元債券

of bonds to pump their economy.

來刺激經濟。

If instead, they'd purchased 24 trillion dollars of bonds

如果他們購買 24 萬億美元的債券

that finance renewable energies,

是用在資助可再生能源，

we would have had the same economic impact

我們依然能看到同樣的經濟效益，

and be halfway to halting climate change already.

而且在遏制氣候變化方面 就已成功了一半，

And we would have reduced our inflationary dependence

再者，我們也會減少 對石油和煤炭的通膨依賴，

on oil and coal,

all within 12 years.

都在 12 年內完成。

The power of what we can do when it matters to us is unlimited.

當我們關心的時候， 我們的能力是無限的。

So here's the financing plan

以下的財務計劃

that does not rely on the altruism of financiers and insurers,

不必仰賴金融資本和保險公司的無私，

is not based on some unproven tech

並非基於某些未經證實的科技，

and does not skirt around our common but different responsibilities.

也不規避我們共有但不同的責任。

Picture three buckets.

想像三個桶。

Small, medium and large.

小、中、大。

The smallest is actually the hardest to fund.

最小的實際上是最難融資的。

It's all of those things that don't generate any savings or profits.

這些都是不會產生儲蓄或利潤的項目，

It's rebuilding the homes of low-income families

像是為受氣候災害襲擊的 低收入家庭重建家園，

that are being washed away by climate events.

It's rebuilding, recovering their livelihoods,

包括重建，恢復人民生計，

their clinics, their schools.

診所，學校。

And climate change, remember,

還有氣候變遷，請記住，

is the increasing certainty of rising losses.

損失肯定會越來越多。

It's uninsurable.

這些都無法投保。

So we need new sources of public finance.

因此，我們需要新的公共財政來源。

We need new emission taxes on oil and coal and methane.

我們需要對石油、煤炭 和甲烷徵收新的排放稅。

At the Mottley-Macron Summit in June in Paris,

六月於巴黎舉行的 「莫特里-馬克宏高峰會」上，

we made some progress towards taxing emissions on the shipping industry.

在對航運業徵收排放稅方面， 我們取得了一些進展。

We need more.

我們需要更多。

And we need a small financial transaction tax,

我們需要徵收少量的金融交易稅，

like the one you don't even realize you're paying today,

就像那些你甚至沒感覺在付的稅，

that covers the cost of the US SEC.

其實支付了美國 證券交易委員會的費用。

And energy and finance consumption is slanted to the rich.

能源和金融消費偏向富人。

The second bucket is for those things that don't generate revenues

第二個桶是那些不產生收入，

but generate immediate savings.

但能馬上省錢的事物。

If I invest a dollar of borrowed money on stronger seawalls,

如果我把借來的一美元 投資於更牢固的防波堤、

more muscular flood defenses, more resilient health systems,

更發達的防洪系統、 更具彈性的健康體系，

I save several dollars.

我可以節省好幾美元。

So we need the international multilateral development banks,

所以我們需要國際多邊開發銀行，

like the World Bank,

就像世界銀行一樣，

to lend three times more on the Sustainable Development Goals

為永續發展目標提供三倍的貸款，

and to make that debt cheap by making it longer and lower-cost.

並延長債務期限和降低成本， 讓債務減輕 。

They can get halfway there

他們可以利用已經擁有的資源 來完成一半任務。

by using the resources they already have.

They're very conservative.

他們非常保守。

And the other half,

另一半，

they need rich countries to put in a little bit more capital.

則需要富國提供更多的資本。

Now, some people criticize me for saying,

有些人批評我說，

why are you going for cheap loans rather than grants?

你為什麼要尋求低廉貸款 而不是補助金？

And I say, if you found a trillion dollars stuffed behind the sofa, then OK.

我說，如果你發現沙發後面 塞著一萬億美元，那就好。

But grants will never be enough.

但捐的錢永遠都不夠。

And so let's focus our grants on those things

所以我們該把補助款集中在

that can't be funded any other way

那些無法透過其他方式 獲得資助的部份，

because there's no savings and profits.

因為這些不會有儲蓄和利潤。

The final bucket,

最後一個桶，也是最大的桶，

the biggest bucket, is for those things for which there is a revenue attached.

是那些會帶來收入的東西。

But before I go to that, on the second bucket at Paris,

但談到這個之前，在巴黎的第二個桶，

at the Motley-Macron Summit,

莫特里-馬克宏高峰會上，

we got a commitment of an extra 20 billion dollars of lending a year,

我們得到了每年額外提供 200 億美元貸款的承諾，

a start.

這是個開始。

The third bucket, the biggest, revenue.

第三個桶，也是最大的一個，收入。

Solar farms, wind turbines,

太陽能發電場、風力發電機

they make money whilst reducing greenhouse gases.

減少溫室氣體排放，同時在賺錢。

In the rich countries,

在富裕國家，

81 percent of that is funded by the private sector.

這部份 81% 由私營部門資助。

If we want developing countries to move faster than rich countries do,

如果我們希望發展中國家 比富裕國家行動更快一些，

then we want those investors to go to the developing world.

這些投資者應該 前往發展中國家。

They don't today

但他們並沒有這麼做，

because of the high cost of guaranteeing their returns

因為如果保證其收益， 將有貨幣波動的高成本，

against the fluctuation of currencies.

However, history shows

然而，歷史證明，

that an international agency capitalized by rich countries

由富國提供資本的國際機構

that takes a diversified view across time and countries

可以跨越時間和國界， 採取多元化的觀點，

can lower the cost without losing money ...

降低成本而不虧損，

by enough to unblock the flow of investments.

足以暢通資本流動。

And a small group of countries have agreed to move on a pilot this year.

部分國家已同意 今年啟動一個試點計畫。

Three buckets: small one for costs,

三個桶：小桶給支出，

middle one for savings,

中桶用來節省，

big one for revenues.

大桶是收入。

There are a couple of things we also need to do that doesn't cost money.

還有一些方法，不需要花錢。

We need Barbados-style pause clauses in all debt instruments.

在所有債務工具中， 加入巴貝多式的暫停條款。

When a disaster hits, you suspend --

當災難襲擊，你可以暫停——

your interest payments and debt repayments are suspended for two years,

利息支付和債務還款將暫停兩年，

added back on to later when you can afford it.

等到負擔得起的時候， 你再開始還款。

It will release billions of dollars and reshape the financial system.

這將釋放數十億美元資金， 並重塑金融體系。

And as Prime Minister Mottley says,

正如莫特里總理所言，

if we want these institutions that were set up in the colonial era,

如果我們希望這些 遠在殖民時代建立的機構

if we want to trust them to save the world,

能夠拯救世界，

then the people they serve cannot be invisible in the halls of power.

那麼他們所服務的人民​​ 就不能在權力殿堂中隱形。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

So the impasse is cracking.

僵局正在打破。

I got on that plane to Dominica because of my dad.

我搭飛機去多米尼克是因為我父親，

Not because of his profession, but because he was a dad.

不是因為他的職業， 而是因為他是個父親。

I remember asking him once,

我記得，有一次我問他意見，

when I was being asked to join an unpopular cause

當時我受邀加入一項不受重視的計畫，

that was going to hurt my career,

而且會損害我的職業生涯，

and I was half hoping he would say, "No, son, that's silly."

我有點希望他會說： 「不要吧，兒子，太傻了。」

Instead, he said gently,

但他輕聲說，

"Avi, you've got to be a player in this life."

「艾維，人生這件事， 你得投入參與。」

So here I am.

所以我在這裡。

Please join us.

請加入我們。

(Applause)

（掌聲）