Time Is Running Out on Climate Change. The Metaverse Could Help | Cedrik Neike | TED

翻译人员: Jia Z 校对人员: suya f.

When I listen to all of this, my question is, are we too late?

当我听到所有这些时， 我的问题是，我们为时已晚吗？

I’m half German, and I hate being late, to be very honest.

老实说，我是半个德国人，我讨厌迟到。

So it's something which gets me sort of all wound up,

所以这让我有点紧张，

but the reality is ... we’re running out of time.

但现实是... 我们的时间不多了。

We have real issues reaching the 1.5 degrees of Paris,

我们在实现《巴黎协定》的 1.5 度目标上面临真正的问题,

so that's one issue.

所以这是一个问题。

But we're not only running out of time,

但是我们不仅时间不多了，

we are also running out of resources.

而且资源也不多了。

So three weeks from now, on the second of August,

三周后，即 8 月 2 日，

we will reach the World Overshoot Day,

我们将迎来地球生态超载日，

meaning we will have used up

这意味着我们将耗尽地球上

all of the replenishable resources of this planet.

所有可补充的资源。

So that's not good. These are real problems.

所以这不好。 这些都是真正的问题。

Now, I'm an engineer,

现在，我是一名工程师，

and we engineers love to solve problems.

我们的工程师喜欢解决问题。

That's what we do.

我们就是做这个的。

But the reality is, if we go to the real world,

但现实是， 如果我们进入现实世界，

we will not be able to solve those problems

我们将无法像以前那样

doing everything in the real world as we've done it before.

在现实世界中做所有事情 来解决这些问题。

A lot of us, including my kids and myself,

我们中的许多人， 包括我的孩子们和我自己，

and a third of the world population,

以及世界三分之一的人口，

escape into digital worlds.

都逃到了数字世界。

There are three billion gamers out there.

目前全球有三十亿玩家。

We "lose" time.

我们 “失去” 了时间。

But what if I would tell you ...

但是如果我告诉你...

that we could use the digital world to cheat time in the real world,

我们可以利用数字世界 来欺骗现实世界中的时间，

and to make things better and faster with less resources?

用更少的资源让事情变得更好、更快？

You would tell me, "Well, how does it work, Cedrik?"

你会问我： “那么，它是怎么运作的？”

And I would tell you the following.

我会告诉你以下几点。

Now, in the physical world, the laws of physics apply, right?

现在，在物理世界中， 物理定律适用，对吧？

I'm in industry, so what do we do?

我从事工业工作，那我们该怎么做？

We dig up the Earth, we get stuff out,

我们挖地球，把东西取出来，

we ship it around the world,

把它运到世界各地，

we melt it, we assemble it,

我们融化它，组装它，

we try if it works, and we try again,

我们尝试它是否奏效，然后再试一次，

and if not, we dig up more stuff.

如果不奏效，我们会挖出更多的东西。

We basically are having a trial and error sort of approach.

我们基本上采用的是反复试验的方法。

Lots of time, lots of resources are being used.

期间，大量的时间和资源被使用。

It took us more than a hundred years to build the combustion engine car.

我们花了一百多年的时间 才制造出内燃机汽车。

Now in the digital world, it's a bit different.

现在在数字世界中，情况有所不同。

We could have a digital playground,

我们可以有一个数字游乐场，

we can learn things without being bound by the laws of physics.

我们可以不受物理定律的约束学习东西。

We can replicate the complete real world and start experimenting on it.

我们可以复制完整的现实世界 并开始对其进行实验。

And the one thing we can [do],

我们能 [做] 的一件事是,

is we will not learn one time faster, not ten times faster.

我们的学习速度不会快一倍， 也不会快十倍。

We will learn a million times faster, even more.

我们的学习速度将 快一百万倍，甚至更多。

We're only limited by how much compute power we throw at a problem.

我们只受到我们为问题 投入多少计算能力的限制。

So the thing we have, how do we make it real?

那么我们所拥有的东西， 我们如何将其变为现实？

So how do we cheat time to do more with less?

我们如何欺骗时间， 用更少的资源做更多的事情呢？

We are using all too much fossil fuels.

我们使用的化石燃料太多。

We're not using enough renewables,

我们使用的可再生能源太少，

and we all know that batteries are the answer,

并且我们都知道电池是答案，

to be able to help us sort of store and distribute this renewable energy.

能够帮助我们储存 和分配这种可再生能源。

Now the problem with batteries is that there's a lot of investment

现在，电池的问题在于，

going into battery manufacturing at the moment.

目前有大量投资投入电池制造。

Since 2019, 300 billion dollars are being put into batteries,

自2019年以来， 有3000亿美元投入电池，

200 gigafactories are being built,

正在建造200座超级工厂，

because we need to build 10 billion batteries per year in 2030.

因为到2030年， 我们每年需要生产100亿个电池。

And just to give you an overview of a gigafactory,

给你一个超级工厂的概览，

basically, you take two Eiffel Towers, put them next to each other,

基本上，你拿两座埃菲尔铁塔， 把它们并排放在一起，

that's the size of the gigafactory which is out there.

就相当于现在的超级工厂的大小。

Eiffel Tower -- I’m half French,

埃菲尔铁塔 —— 我是半个法国人，

so when I want to say something is really big,

所以当我想说 某个东西真的很大的时候，

I take a couple of Eiffel Towers,

我会拿几座埃菲尔铁塔举例，

so two Eiffel Towers next to each other.

所以是两座埃菲尔铁塔放在一起。

Now imagine 200 of those gigafactories which are being built.

现在想象一下正在建造的 200 个超级工厂。

They need to build the right batteries,

他们需要制造合适的电池，

they need to do this in the right way, and they need to recycle them.

他们需要以正确的方式制造电池， 并且需要回收利用。

How can we apply this technology?

我们怎样才能应用这项技术？

Very simple.

非常简单。

First thing we will do in this, let's call it an industrial metaverse,

我们需要做的第一件事， 让我们称之为工业元宇宙，

we will build the perfect battery.

我们将制造完美的电池。

We will experiment with its chemistry, with how it needs to be built,

我们将试验它的化学性质， 研究它需要如何建造，

and we will solve the problems we have.

我们将解决我们遇到的问题。

One problem is, I don't know if any of you came here in an EV,

一个问题是，我不知道你们当中 是否有人开着电动汽车来到这里，

you probably didn't like your charging time.

你可能不喜欢它的充电时间。

So I brought a little example for you.

所以我给你带来一个小例子。

So let me share this example.

现在我来分享这个例子。

So this is basically a module, which goes into a pack.

这是一个模块， 它装在一个包里。

It's actually a car battery.

它实际上是一块汽车电池。

If we're capable of cooling this car battery 30 percent faster ...

如果我们能够将这辆车 电池的冷却速度加快 30%...

or better,

甚至更快，

you can charge your cars twice as fast.

你就可以以两倍的速度为汽车充电。

So we could actually save time with less resources.

因此，我们实际上可以 用更少的资源来节省时间。

And all of this simulation can be done not in years,

而且，所有这些模拟 并非在几年内完成，

it can be done in weeks,

它可以在几周内完成，

without building a single battery.

而无需建造一块电池。

So that's the first thing.

所以这是第一件事。

The second thing is, actually building batteries the traditional way

第二件事是， 用传统方式建造电池实际上

uses a lot of energy, lots of water, lots of resources,

会消耗大量能源、 大量水、大量资源，

and produces lots of scrap.

并产生大量废料。

That’s not good.

那并不好。

If you go to a traditional --

如果你选择传统的 ——

I mean, making batteries is like making a cake.

我的意思是， 做电池就像做蛋糕。

I'm sorry for all of the battery experts in the room,

我对房间里所有的电池专家表示歉意，

but it's baking a cake.

但这确实像做蛋糕。

What you do is you take a lot of ingredients, you mix them up.

你要做的是把很多材料混在一起。

In the factory, you have somebody listening to the sound --

在工厂里，有人在听声音——

"Yep, it's about right."

“是的，差不多了。”

If it's true, you put it onto aluminum foil, which gets folded,

如果是对的，你把它 放在铝箔纸上，折起来，

which gets put in a casing, dried out.

再放在外壳里，然后变干。

The problem is that if the person listened to it the wrong way,

问题在于，如果这个人听错了，

you can throw away five days, seven days of battery production,

你可能会浪费五天、七天的电池产量，

and this, in a gigafactory, is a really bad thing.

而这在超级工厂里， 是一件非常糟糕的事情。

So what do we do? That's my second example.

那么我们该怎么做？ 这是我的第二个例子。

We build these gigafactories completely in the metaverse,

我们首先在数字世界中、在元宇宙里

in the digital world, first.

建造这些超级工厂。

And we simulate how we do actually the chemistry,

然后我们模拟如何进行化学反应，

how does it flow, can we get the information?

它是如何流动的， 我们能得到信息吗？

We don't need to listen to it.

我们没必要去听它。

How do we optimize the different steps?

我们如何优化不同的步骤？

This is a gigafactory, for example, which is going to be built.

例如，这是一个 即将建设的超级工厂。

So we build this gigafactory in the metaverse first,

因此，我们首先在元宇宙中 建造这个超级工厂，

to make sure that it produces in the right way.

确保它以正确的方式生产。

And once we have the real factory,

一旦我们有了真正的工厂，

the metaverse factory runs in parallel

元宇宙工厂就会平行运行

and learns faster than the real world to learn from it.

而且从中学习的速度 比现实世界更快。

So we dream up a better battery, we make a better battery,

因此，我们想出更好的电池， 制造出更好的电池，

and then the last one, we have to recycle the battery.

最后一点是， 我们必须回收电池。

We have to reuse it.

我们必须重复使用它。

So I'm hoping that all of you are collecting your batteries

因此，我希望你们 所有人都在收集电池，

to bring them back, in Germany to the supermarket,

把它们带回德国的超市，

for recycling.

进行回收利用。

The reality is, if you have a bag of 20 batteries,

现实情况是，如果你有一个 装着20块电池的袋子，

if it’s lithium-ion, only one will be recycled,

如果是锂离子电池， 则只有一块会被回收利用，

19 will be thrown away.

19块会被扔掉。

Only five percent of all batteries are actually being recycled at the moment.

目前，所有电池中只有 百分之五被回收利用。

And what we can do if we have a digital twin

如果我们有了数字孪生

on ... designing the battery, building the battery,

来设计电池，建造电池，

is we can have a digital twin of each battery,

我们可以为每块电池 建立一个数字孪生，

saying, "That's me, this is how I've been built,

说：“那是我造的， 我就是这样建造的，

these are my components,

这些是我的组件，

this is how you can repair me,

你可以这样修复我，

this is how I can be sort of disassembled,"

我可以这样被拆卸。”

and you can automate it.

然后你可以将它自动化。

So we can actually take 95 percent or plus of the battery

这样，我们实际上可以将 95％ 或更多的电池

back into the process.

带回生产流程。

Now this battery example is just to give you a view

现在，这个电池的例子 只是为了让你了解

on how we can design, build and reuse it in a better way.

我们如何以更好的方式设计、 建造和重复使用它。

The problem is, I gave that speech to my kids,

问题是，当我告诉我的孩子们时，

and my kids basically said,

我的孩子们说：

"Look, Dad, we're computer scientists, this has been done for the last 40 years.

“看，老爸，我们是计算机科学家，

在过去的 40 年里， 我们一直在做这件事。

What's new about it?"

这有什么新鲜的？”

So I'm like, "What's new is that we are now throwing

我说，“新的是，我们现在用了

a huge amount of cloud computing and AI to it,

大量的云计算和人工智能，

so every industry can use this capability."

因此每个行业都可以使用这种功能。”

And I'll give you three examples.

我给你举三个例子。

First one, air travel.

第一个，航空旅行。

Three to four percent of worldwide CO2.

占全球二氧化碳的百分之三到百分之四。

We're working with small start-ups

我们正在与那些完全在元宇宙中

which are building completely electrical planes,

建造全电动飞机的小型初创企业合作，

completely in the metaverse first, to build them right.

以正确的建造它们。

Second one, so we build better travel,

第二个，我们构建了更好的出行，

we can use it for better food, right?

我们可以用它来获得更好的食物，对吧？

Twenty-five percent of all CO2 is being used in agriculture.

所有二氧化碳中有 25％ 来自农业。

So this is an example I brought for you.

所以这是我为你带来的一个例子。

We can build gigafactories for food.

我们可以建造食品超级工厂。

This is vertical farms, completely automated.

这是完全自动化的垂直农场。

These farms use 100 percent renewables,

这些农场使用 100％ 的可再生能源，

they use 95 percent less water, zero pesticides.

减少了 95％ 的用水，零杀虫剂。

And it tastes, actually, quite good.

实际上，它的味道相当不错。

And it's completely automated.

而且它是完全自动化的。

What does that have to do with a digital twin?

这与数字孪生有什么关系？

We have a twin of each plant,

每个植物都有它的孪生，

which means we can make every day a perfect day for these plants.

这意味着我们可以让这些植物的 每一天都成为完美的一天。

It's pretty good.

这相当不错。

Now the last example, it's going to be shocking to you,

现在是最后一个例子， 它会让你感到震惊，

but you should think about it.

但你应该考虑一下。

You're spending 90 percent of your living time in buildings.

你 90％ 的时间都在建筑物里度过。

In buildings which have been badly designed,

这些建筑设计不佳，

badly built and badly run.

建造不当、运行不良。

You heat it when it shouldn't be heated,

你在不应该加热的时候加热它，

you cool it when it shouldn't be cooled, you leave the lights on,

在它不应该冷却的时候 冷却，你把灯开着，

so it's a huge waste of resources.

所以这是对资源的巨大浪费。

Thirty percent of all energy goes into buildings.

百分之三十的能量进入建筑物。

So we can use those tools to design houses better,

因此，我们可以使用这些工具 来更好地设计房屋，

to simulate what needs to be done to build them in a better way,

模拟需要做些什么才能 以更好的方式建造它们，

so they don't have to be changed multiple times,

这样就不必多次更改，

and to run them.

就可以运行。

But being here in Detroit,

但是，在底特律，

we can also do it for complete parts of the city,

我们也可以为整个城市的做

which is my last example.

这就是我的最后一个例子。

I come from Berlin.

我来自柏林。

This is an old industrial part of this town,

这是这个城镇的老工业区，

which we are going to rebuild completely.

我们将对其进行彻底重建。

And what we decided is we're going to rebuild it first

我们决定首先在元宇宙中

in the metaverse.

对其进行重建。

Because we want to optimize where the excess heat goes,

因为我们想优化多余热量的去向，

where the excess cooling is going,

多余冷却的去向，

what happens if the rain falls, how can we keep it?

如果下雨了怎么办， 我们怎样才能留住它？

What does the biosphere look like, what is the biodiversity,

生物圈是怎样的， 生物多样性是怎样的，

can we make it wheelchair-accessible?

我们可以让它方便轮椅通行吗？

We optimize it.

我们对其进行优化。

So once we've built this part of Berlin ...

因此，一旦我们建造了 柏林的这一部分...

It's going to be really sort of optimized,

它会得到真正的优化，

and we will not have made mistakes.

而且我们不会犯错误。

We're getting platinum LEED certification before this thing is even being built.

在它建成之前，我们就已经 获得了LEED 白金认证。

So why am I sharing this?

那我为什么要分享这个呢？

I told you as a German, I hate being late, right?

我告诉过你，作为德国人 我讨厌迟到，对吧？

But the reality, a lot of the industries you're working in are late,

但现实是，你们工作的 许多行业都迟到了，

are late to do their contribution,

迟迟没有做出自己的贡献，

to make sure that we are reaching the Paris Accords.

以确保我们达成《巴黎协定》。

So there's tools which enable us to cheat time

现在有可以让我们欺骗时间的工具

and to do more with less --

用更少的资源做更多的事情——

we should use those tools.

我们应该使用这些工具。

So my ask of all of you is,

因此，我对你们所有人的要求是，

let's use those tools to make it a better world

让我们用这些工具 来创造一个更美好的世界

and have an impact.

并产生影响。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）