Time Is Running Out on Climate Change. The Metaverse Could Help | Cedrik Neike | TED

譯者: C Leung 審譯者: 麗玲 辛

When I listen to all of this, my question is, are we too late?

當我聽到這一切時， 我的問題是，我們是否為時已晚？

I’m half German, and I hate being late, to be very honest.

我有一半德國血統， 說實話，我討厭遲到。

So it's something which gets me sort of all wound up,

所以這方面令我有點緊張，

but the reality is ... we’re running out of time.

但現實是... 我們時間不多了。

We have real issues reaching the 1.5 degrees of Paris,

在實現《巴黎協定》的 1.5 度目標上，我們面臨問題，

so that's one issue.

一個真正的問題。

But we're not only running out of time,

但我們不僅沒有時間，

we are also running out of resources.

而且資源也不多了。

So three weeks from now, on the second of August,

三週後，即 8月 2 日，

we will reach the World Overshoot Day,

我們將迎來地球超載日，

meaning we will have used up

這意味著我們將耗盡地球上 所有可補充的資源。

all of the replenishable resources of this planet.

So that's not good. These are real problems.

這並非好事。 這些都是實際存在的問題。

Now, I'm an engineer,

我是工程師，

而工程師都喜歡解決問題。

and we engineers love to solve problems.

That's what we do.

那是我們的工作。

But the reality is, if we go to the real world,

但現實是， 如果我們進入現實世界，

we will not be able to solve those problems

我們將無法像以前那樣，

doing everything in the real world as we've done it before.

在現實世界中窮盡一切 來解決這些問題。

A lot of us, including my kids and myself,

我們許多人， 包括我的孩子和自己，

and a third of the world population,

以及全世界三分之一的人口，

escape into digital worlds.

都逃往數位世界。

There are three billion gamers out there.

那裡有三十億玩家。

We "lose" time.

我們「失去」時間。

But what if I would tell you ...

但如果我告訴你...

that we could use the digital world to cheat time in the real world,

我們可以利用數位世界, 來節省現實世界中的時間，

and to make things better and faster with less resources?

用更少資源讓事情變得更好更快呢？

You would tell me, "Well, how does it work, Cedrik?"

你會問我： 「塞德里克，怎樣做到呢？」

And I would tell you the following.

我會告訴你以下幾點。

Now, in the physical world, the laws of physics apply, right?

物理定律適用於物理世界中，對吧？

I'm in industry, so what do we do?

我是業內人士，那我們怎樣做？

我們從地球挖掘，取出東西，

We dig up the Earth, we get stuff out,

we ship it around the world,

運到世界各地，

熔化它，組裝它，

we melt it, we assemble it,

we try if it works, and we try again,

嘗試它是否奏效，然後再試一次，

and if not, we dig up more stuff.

如果不行，我們就再挖更多。

We basically are having a trial and error sort of approach.

基本上，我們採用反覆試驗的方法，

Lots of time, lots of resources are being used.

會使用大量時間和資源。

It took us more than a hundred years to build the combustion engine car.

我們花了一百多年時間 才製造出內燃機汽車。

Now in the digital world, it's a bit different.

但在數位世界，情況略有不同。

We could have a digital playground,

我們可以擁有一個數位遊樂場，

we can learn things without being bound by the laws of physics.

可以不受物理定律束縛來學習事物。

We can replicate the complete real world and start experimenting on it.

我們可以複製完整的現實世界， 並開始進行實驗。

And the one thing we can [do],

而我們可以，

is we will not learn one time faster, not ten times faster.

讓學習速度不只快一倍， 也不只快十倍。

We will learn a million times faster, even more.

我們的學習速度 將提高一百萬倍，甚至更多。

We're only limited by how much compute power we throw at a problem.

我們只會受限於 解決問題所投入的運算能力。

So the thing we have, how do we make it real?

那我們擁有的東西， 要如何讓它成為現實？

So how do we cheat time to do more with less?

我們如何節省時間， 達到事倍功半？

We are using all too much fossil fuels.

我們使用太多化石燃料。

We're not using enough renewables,

我們沒有使用足夠的再生能源，

and we all know that batteries are the answer,

而我們都知道解決辦法就是電池，

to be able to help us sort of store and distribute this renewable energy.

能助我們儲存和分配這種再生能源。

Now the problem with batteries is that there's a lot of investment

電池的問題在於，

目前有大量投資進入電池製造。

going into battery manufacturing at the moment.

Since 2019, 300 billion dollars are being put into batteries,

自 2019 年以來， 有三千億美元投放往電池領域，

有 200 座超級工廠正在建造，

200 gigafactories are being built,

because we need to build 10 billion batteries per year in 2030.

因為到 2030 年，我們每年 需要生產 100 億個電池。

And just to give you an overview of a gigafactory,

給你一個超級工廠的概覽，

basically, you take two Eiffel Towers, put them next to each other,

基本上，把兩座艾菲爾鐵塔 並排放在一起，

that's the size of the gigafactory which is out there.

就相當於現在的超級工廠大小。

Eiffel Tower -- I’m half French,

艾菲爾鐵塔－我有一半法國血統，

so when I want to say something is really big,

所以當我想說某東西非常大時，

I take a couple of Eiffel Towers,

我會拿幾座艾菲爾鐵塔舉例，

so two Eiffel Towers next to each other.

所以是兩座艾菲爾鐵塔放在一起。

Now imagine 200 of those gigafactories which are being built.

現在想像一下正在興建的 200 座超級工廠。

They need to build the right batteries,

它們需要製造合適的電池，

they need to do this in the right way, and they need to recycle them.

需要以正確方式製造， 並且要回收利用。

How can we apply this technology?

我們怎樣應用這項技術？

Very simple.

非常簡單。

First thing we will do in this, let's call it an industrial metaverse,

要做的第一件事， 我們將在這稱為工業元宇宙裡，

we will build the perfect battery.

製造完美電池。

We will experiment with its chemistry, with how it needs to be built,

我們將試驗它的化學性質， 研究它需要如何製造，

and we will solve the problems we have.

我們將解決遇到的問題。

One problem is, I don't know if any of you came here in an EV,

有個問題是，我不清楚你們當中 是否有人開著電動車來到這裡，

you probably didn't like your charging time.

你可能不喜歡充電時間。

所以我為你帶來一個小例子。

So I brought a little example for you.

So let me share this example.

那就讓我來分享它。

So this is basically a module, which goes into a pack.

這基本上是個模塊，會放進一組。

It's actually a car battery.

它實際上是汽車電池。

If we're capable of cooling this car battery 30 percent faster ...

如果我們能夠將這汽車 電池的冷卻速度提高 30%...

or better,

甚至更快，

you can charge your cars twice as fast.

你為汽車充電的速度可以提高兩倍。

So we could actually save time with less resources.

因此，我們實際上可以 用更少的資源，也節省時間。

And all of this simulation can be done not in years,

而且，這一切模擬不需要幾年去完成，

it can be done in weeks,

是可以在幾週內完成，

without building a single battery.

也無需製造任何電池。

So that's the first thing.

這是第一件事。

The second thing is, actually building batteries the traditional way

第二件事，以傳統方式製造電池

uses a lot of energy, lots of water, lots of resources,

實際上會消耗大量能源、 大量水、大量資源，

and produces lots of scrap.

並產生大量廢料。

That’s not good.

那並不好。

If you go to a traditional --

如果你採用傳統的－

I mean, making batteries is like making a cake.

我的意思是， 製造電池就像做蛋糕般。

I'm sorry for all of the battery experts in the room,

我對在座所有電池專家表示歉意，

but it's baking a cake.

但它確實像是在烤蛋糕。

What you do is you take a lot of ingredients, you mix them up.

你要做的就是把很多原料混合。

In the factory, you have somebody listening to the sound --

在工廠裡，有人在聽聲音－

「是，差不多了。」

"Yep, it's about right."

If it's true, you put it onto aluminum foil, which gets folded,

如果正確，你把它 放在鋁箔紙上，折疊起來，

which gets put in a casing, dried out.

再放進盒子裡，晾乾。

The problem is that if the person listened to it the wrong way,

問題在於如果這人聽錯了，

you can throw away five days, seven days of battery production,

你可能會浪費五天、七天的電池產量，

and this, in a gigafactory, is a really bad thing.

這對超級工廠來說， 是一件非常糟糕的事。

So what do we do? That's my second example.

那麼我們該怎麼做？ 這是我第二個例子。

We build these gigafactories completely in the metaverse,

我們首先在數位世界、在元宇宙裡

in the digital world, first.

建立這些超級工廠。

And we simulate how we do actually the chemistry,

然後模擬如何進行化學反應，

how does it flow, can we get the information?

它是如何流動的， 我們能得到資訊嗎？

We don't need to listen to it.

我們不需要去聽。

How do we optimize the different steps?

我們如何最佳化不同步驟？

This is a gigafactory, for example, which is going to be built.

例如，這是一個即將建成的超級工廠。

我們首先在元宇宙中 建立這個超級工廠，

So we build this gigafactory in the metaverse first,

to make sure that it produces in the right way.

確保它以正確方式生產。

And once we have the real factory,

一旦有了真正工廠，

the metaverse factory runs in parallel

元宇宙工廠就會並行運行

and learns faster than the real world to learn from it.

而且比現實世界學習得更快。

So we dream up a better battery, we make a better battery,

我們想出更好的電池， 製造出更好的電池，

and then the last one, we have to recycle the battery.

最後一步，我們必須回收電池。

We have to reuse it.

我們必須重複使用它。

So I'm hoping that all of you are collecting your batteries

我希望大家都有在收集電池，

to bring them back, in Germany to the supermarket,

把它們帶回德國的超市，

for recycling.

去回收利用。

The reality is, if you have a bag of 20 batteries,

現實是，如果你收集了 一袋 20 個電池，

if it’s lithium-ion, only one will be recycled,

如鋰離子電池的， 則只有一個會被回收，

19 will be thrown away.

19 個會被丟掉。

Only five percent of all batteries are actually being recycled at the moment.

目前，所有電池中只有 百分之五真正被回收。

And what we can do if we have a digital twin

如果我們有了數位雙胞胎，

on ... designing the battery, building the battery,

用來設計電池，製造電池，

is we can have a digital twin of each battery,

我們可以為每種電池 建立一個數位雙胞胎，

saying, "That's me, this is how I've been built,

說：「這就是我，這就是我的製造方式

these are my components,

這些是我的組件，

this is how you can repair me,

你可以這樣修復我，

this is how I can be sort of disassembled,"

我可以這樣被拆解。」

and you can automate it.

然後你可以將之自動化。

So we can actually take 95 percent or plus of the battery

這樣，我們實際上可以將 95％ 或更多的電池

back into the process.

帶回生產流程。

Now this battery example is just to give you a view

這個電池的例子只是為了讓你了解

on how we can design, build and reuse it in a better way.

我們如何以更好的方式 設計、製造和重複使用。

The problem is, I gave that speech to my kids,

問題是，當我告訴 我的孩子時，他們說：

and my kids basically said,

"Look, Dad, we're computer scientists, this has been done for the last 40 years.

「看，老爸，我們是電腦科學家， 這件事已做了 40 年了。

What's new about it?"

有什麼新鮮的？」

So I'm like, "What's new is that we are now throwing

我說：「新的作法是我們現在

a huge amount of cloud computing and AI to it,

投放大量的雲端計算和 AI，

so every industry can use this capability."

讓每個行業都可以使用這種功能。」

And I'll give you three examples.

我給你舉三個例子。

First one, air travel.

第一，航空旅行。

Three to four percent of worldwide CO2.

佔全球二氧化碳排放量的 百分之三到四。

We're working with small start-ups

我們正在與那些小型初創企業合作，

which are building completely electrical planes,

他們在建造全電動的飛機，

completely in the metaverse first, to build them right.

全面地先在元宇宙中建造，以確保無差錯。

Second one, so we build better travel,

第二，我們構建了更好的旅行方式，

we can use it for better food, right?

可以用它來獲得更好的食物，對吧？

Twenty-five percent of all CO2 is being used in agriculture.

二氧化碳中有 25% 用於農業。

So this is an example I brought for you.

這裡是我給你的一個例子。

We can build gigafactories for food.

我們可以建造食品超級工廠。

This is vertical farms, completely automated.

這是全自動化的垂直農場。

These farms use 100 percent renewables,

這些農場使用 100% 再生能源，

they use 95 percent less water, zero pesticides.

減少 95% 的用水，零農藥。

實際上，它的作物非常好吃。

And it tastes, actually, quite good.

And it's completely automated.

而且是全自動的。

What does that have to do with a digital twin?

這與數位雙胞胎有什麼關係？

We have a twin of each plant,

每種植物都有個雙胞胎，

which means we can make every day a perfect day for these plants.

代表著我們可以 讓這些植物每一天都過得完美。

It's pretty good.

相當不錯。

Now the last example, it's going to be shocking to you,

最後一個例子， 會讓你感到震驚，

但你應該考慮一下。

but you should think about it.

You're spending 90 percent of your living time in buildings.

90% 生活時間 你都在建築物裡度過。

In buildings which have been badly designed,

這些建築設計不佳，

badly built and badly run.

建造不當、運作不良。

You heat it when it shouldn't be heated,

在不該開暖氣時卻開著，

you cool it when it shouldn't be cooled, you leave the lights on,

在不該開冷氣時也開著， 燈也一直亮著，

這對資源是巨大的浪費。

so it's a huge waste of resources.

Thirty percent of all energy goes into buildings.

百分之三十的能源用在建築物上。

So we can use those tools to design houses better,

因此，我們可以使用這些工具 來更好地設計房屋，

to simulate what needs to be done to build them in a better way,

模擬所需要做的， 去以更好方式建造它們，

這樣就不必多次更改，

so they don't have to be changed multiple times,

並運行它們。

and to run them.

在底特律，

But being here in Detroit,

我們也可以對整個城市這麼做，

we can also do it for complete parts of the city,

這是我最後的例子。

which is my last example.

I come from Berlin.

我來自柏林。

This is an old industrial part of this town,

這是城鎮的舊工業區，

which we are going to rebuild completely.

我們將對其徹底重建。

And what we decided is we're going to rebuild it first

我們決定首先在元宇宙中

重建它。

in the metaverse.

Because we want to optimize where the excess heat goes,

因為我們想改善多餘熱量的去向，

where the excess cooling is going,

多餘冷卻的去向，

what happens if the rain falls, how can we keep it?

如果下雨，會怎樣， 我們怎樣留下雨水？

What does the biosphere look like, what is the biodiversity,

生物圈是怎樣的， 生物多樣性是怎樣的，

can we make it wheelchair-accessible?

我們能讓這個區域變得無障礙嗎？

We optimize it.

我們對其最佳化。

So once we've built this part of Berlin ...

一旦我們建成了柏林的這部分...

It's going to be really sort of optimized,

它會得到真正的最佳化，

and we will not have made mistakes.

而且我們將不會犯錯誤。

We're getting platinum LEED certification before this thing is even being built.

在它建成之前，我們就已經 獲得了 LEED 白金認證。

So why am I sharing this?

為什麼我要分享這個呢？

I told you as a German, I hate being late, right?

我剛才說，作為德國人， 我討厭遲到，對吧？

But the reality, a lot of the industries you're working in are late,

但現實是，你們身處的行業 許多都遲了，

are late to do their contribution,

遲遲沒有做出貢獻，

to make sure that we are reaching the Paris Accords.

以確保我們達到《巴黎協定》。

So there's tools which enable us to cheat time

現在有些工具可以讓我們節省時間，

and to do more with less --

用更少資源做的更多——

we should use those tools.

我們應該使用這些工具。

So my ask of all of you is,

我邀請在座各位，

let's use those tools to make it a better world

來一起利用這些工具， 去創造一個更美好的世界

and have an impact.

並產生影響力。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）