What Will Happen to Marketing in the Age of AI? | Jessica Apotheker | TED

翻译人员: Sabrina Wang 校对人员: Aijia Yang

So let me start by bringing you back in time.

首先，让我把你带回到过去。

We are 30 years ago,

让我们一起回到30年前，

and the first word processors and spreadsheets

那个时候，第一批的 文字处理器和电子表格

are about to hit the market.

即将要上市。

And the whole economic world is bracing for the next big productivity revolution.

整个经济世界都在为 下一场大规模生产力革命做准备。

Their promise at the time was we'd all spend so much less time writing,

他们当时的承诺是， 我们所有人都会在

drawing slides, computing numbers on a calculator.

写作、做幻灯片、用电脑计算 这些事上花更少的时间。

And here we are, 30 years later,

现在，我们来到了这30年后

and the promise has come true.

期望已成现实。

We all have so much leisure time on our hands,

每个人都有很多闲暇时间，

and personally, I only work two days a week.

就我个人而言，我每周只工作两天。

Of course, I'm just kidding.

当然啦，我这是在开玩笑。

The reality of what has happened 30 years later

而30年后的现实是

is we don't work less.

我们的工作量并没有减少。

We just write much longer word documents.

反而，我们要写更长的 Word 文档。

And our PowerPoint decks have gone from six slides to 50 slides.

而我们所做的 一份PPT， 也从原来的6张变成了50张。

And I say that as a consultant.

我是以广告顾问的身份这么说的。

Also, we engage in much more complex decision-making

此外，我们做决策要复杂得多

because the amount of data that we have to process has just exploded.

因为我们需要处理的数据量在激增。

And why is that important today?

为什么这对当今时代如此重要呢？

Well, generative AI is coming,

因为，生成式人工智能即将到来，

and it's coming to be embedded in the core of our organizations

它将成为我们机构的核心

and the way we work.

以及我们工作方式的核心。

And that will be the next big productivity revolution.

这将是下一个巨大的生产力革命。

So the question becomes:

那么问题就来了：

how do we set ourselves up to actually seize this productivity opportunity?

我们如何才能真正抓住 这个提高生产力的机会？

I'm a marketer.

我是一名市场营销人员。

I spent all my career in marketing and also advising marketing professionals.

我整个职业生涯都在市场营销领域 为专业营销人士提供咨询建议。

Now, some say marketing is the number one impacted function out there.

现在有人说市场营销是第一个 备受影响的行业。

Some say the productivity impact in marketing

有人说，对营销效率的影响

is as high as 50 percent.

已经高达50%。

So that question of how can I seize that productivity opportunity

所以，如何才能抓住 这个提高生产力的机会

is super high on my mind right now,

是我现在最关切的问题。

and I want to make the case

我想说明的是，

it should be super important to you all as well,

这对你们所有人来说 都是非常重要的。

as business leaders but also as consumers.

这不仅关系到企业的领导者， 更关系到消费者。

So what will happen to marketing?

那么营销领域会发生什么变化呢?

Well, marketing has traditionally been a super right-brained,

传统上，营销行业是一种 高度使用右脑思维的

creative type of function.

创造性职能领域。

That means what?

这意味着什么呢？

Means we have excelled as marketers

这意味着，作为营销人员

by tapping into the emotional needs of our consumers,

我们要善于挖掘消费者的情感需求，

coming up with that perfect product,

推出完美的产品，

that perfect innovation to meet that need,

通过完美的创新，来满足消费者的需求，

and also then cracking that great message

并传递出许多信息，

that will convert the consumer at the right place in the right time.

在恰到好处的时机、最合适的地点， 让消费者热衷该产品。

Already in the past 15 years, with digital marketing and analytics,

在过去的15年中， 随着数字营销和数据分析的出现，

marketing has evolved from being only right-brain type of general skills

营销已从仅仅是右脑类型的一般技能

to a few more specialized skill sets,

发展到一些更为专业的技能组合，

for example, digital marketing or marketing technology.

比如，数字化营销或营销科技。

But now the difference with generative AI,

但是现在， 与生成式 AI 的不同之处在于，

it is transforming the core of marketing activities.

它正在改变营销活动的核心。

Now, in a recent study

目前，在波士顿咨询集团

that the Boston Consulting Group conducted with Harvard,

与哈佛大学合作的一项最新研究中，

we found that ChatGPT, in its current form,

我们发现，以ChatGPT目前的版本

already improves the right-brain performance of marketers by 40 percent.

已经将营销人员右脑的 发挥水准提高了40％，

Imagine what that number will be in a year or two from now.

想象一下从现在起的一两年后， 这个数据会是多少。

So what do you think marketers would do

营销人员每周有一天半的空闲时间

with a day and a half of free time a week?

他们会用来做什么呢？

More yoga?

多练点瑜伽？

More family time?

更多的家庭时光？

Do you think companies would allow that?

你认为公司会允许吗？

Or do you think companies will just let large chunks of the marketing function go?

或者你认为公司会让 营销职能部门大面积解散？

Well, I believe none of this is going to happen.

嗯，我认为这些都不会发生。

I think if we don't steer

我认为，如果我们不积极地引导

that productivity revolution very actively,

生产力的这场革命，

marketers will invest this time in what they do best:

营销人员就会把这些时间 投入到他们最擅长的领域：

more content and more ideas.

更多的内容和更多的创意。

Now, if you think of more content,

现在，如果想到更多的内容，

there is a super productive outcome for all of us as consumers.

对于我们所有消费者来说， 会有一个超级有成效的结果。

More content actually means much more personalized content.

更多的内容实际上意味着 更多个性化的内容。

Now think of that email

现在想想那些

that you're getting from your favorite brand every week.

每周你从最喜欢的品牌那收到的邮件。

Imagine if that email was 100 percent tailored to you,

设想一下，那些邮件是 100% 为你量身定造的

means only images of people your age and gender,

只显示与你同龄同性别的人的图片，

even people wearing T-shirts of your favorite rock band,

图片里的人，甚至穿着 你最喜欢的摇滚乐队的T恤，

every product relevant for you,

推给你的每件产品都与你相关，

and even a human-like experience powered by a bot.

甚至会有机器人提供类似人类的体验。

That is certainly a productive outcome.

这无疑是一个超有成效的结果。

But there is also a very negative outcome for us consumers here,

但对于我们消费者来说， 也有一个非常负面的结果，

and that is content overload.

那就是推送内容过多。

How many of you already feel chased

你们当中有多少人感觉在网上

by the same content over and over again online?

一遍又一遍的被同样的内容追赶？

Now imagine if that content chasing you,

设想一下，如果追逐你的内容，

if that amount of content chasing you just explodes.

内容数量爆炸性增长。

And imagine if that content chasing you also all sounds the same.

再想象一下， 那些追逐你的内容听起来都一样。

Now why is that a risk?

为什么这会是一种风险呢？

Generative AI has been trained on existing content and data.

生成式 AI 是在现有的内容 和数据的基础上训练出来的。

Because of that, it reduces divergence of outcomes.

正因如此，它减少了结果的差异。

And that great equalization of marketing is certainly not a productive outcome.

而营销的巨大均等化肯定不是 一种富有成效的结果。

So what is the solve here?

解决的办法是什么呢？

Well, I believe marketing,

我认为，营销部门，

but also every function out there

以及那些受到这场生产力革命

that is being impacted by this productivity revolution,

影响到的所有职能部门，

needs to grow a left-AI brain, grow one fast,

需要培养一个“左脑人工智能”， 且快速培养

and also identify and protect its top right-brained talent.

并识别和保护其顶尖的右脑人才。

You're going to ask me,

你可能会问我：

"What do you mean by growing a left-AI brain?"

“你说的左脑人工智能 是什么意思？”

Well, I mean, the function needs to strategically reskill and reorganize

我的意思是，职能部门需要进行 战略性的技能调整和重组，

to embed people that can build,

以便将能够构建、

use and diffuse predictive AI tools in the heart of decision-making.

使用和传播预测性人工智能工具的 人才纳入决策核心。

I mean, for marketing, building teams of marketing data scientists,

我的意思是，对于市场营销而言， 建立由营销数据科学家、

marketing data engineers that build solutions

营销数据工程师组成的团队，

that can be distributed to all marketers

构建可以分发给 所有营销人员的解决方案，

to, for example, unpack performance and predict outcomes.

例如，分析绩效和预测结果。

Imagine in marketing

想象一下，在营销中

being able to understand what audience creative couples

能够了解哪些受众的创意组合

are really hitting it off in the market,

在市场上真正受到欢迎，

or what product is working with which consumer and why

有哪些产品适合特定的消费群体， 原因是什么，

or how is the marketing funnel evolving.

其营销渠道又是如何演变的。

I recently partnered with a consumer goods company that did exactly that.

我最近与一家消费品公司合作， 他们正是这样操作的。

They decided to grow a left-AI brain advantage.

他们决定发展左脑人工智能优势。

We helped them build tools

我们帮助他们建立了

that were diffused in the entire organization,

在整个组织中普及的工具，

that helped every marketer predict for every marketing initiative

帮助每一位营销人员预测每一个营销计划

what was going to be the sales outcome,

销售结果会是怎样的状况，

how a consumer behavior is going to be impacted on every channel

预测消费者行为 将如何在每一个渠道

and every touchpoint,

和每一个接触点上受到影响，

and go deep in unpacking execution insights

并深入分析执行见解，

to understand what creative was working and why.

以了解哪些创意是有效的， 为什么有效。

That created a super virtuous feedback loop in the entire organization.

这在整个组织中形成了一个 超级良性的反馈循环。

It also took building a team of 30-plus left-AI brain marketers

他们还组建了一支30多名有 左脑AI优势的营销人员团队，

that build these tools, customize them,

负责构建这些工具，专业定制，

but also in turn upskill the entire organization to use them.

同时也提高了整个组织 使用它们的技能。

But the team's only a part of the puzzle.

但这个团队只是拼图的一部分。

I see too many companies out there embarking on this journey,

我看到有太多的公司 走上了这样的路，

just training their algorithms and models only on their current content and data.

根据现有的内容和数据 来完善他们的算法和模型。

Now, if you do that,

现在如果你这样做，

the risk for a brand is to be trapped in your current territory.

品牌面临的风险就是 被困在当前的领域里

Concretely, imagine you are a brand that is super strong with millennials.

具体来说，你是一个在千禧一代中 超有人气的品牌，

There is nothing in data and content existing on millennials

千禧一代的数据和内容中 没有任何东西

that will help you to be successful with Gen Z.

可以帮助你在 Z时代客户群体中获得成功。

And in turn, if you're never successful with Gen Z,

反之，如果你从未在Z世代中取得成功，

you will miss out on important innovations and trends

你就会错过重要的创新和趋势，

that will make you stronger with millennials.

而这些创新趋势将使你 在千禧一代中，变得更加强大。

So I advise every company out there:

因此，我建议所有公司

think outside of the box,

要跳出固有思维，

think outside your direct ecosystem

跳出你的直接生态系统，

on who could be super relevant data and content partners for you.

想想谁会成为与你超级相关的 数据和内容的合作伙伴。

Imagine you're a construction company

假设你是一家建筑公司

and you decide to market to architects for the first time.

你首次决定向建筑师推销你的产品。

You have zero data on architects.

你没有关于建筑师的任何数据，

What do you do?

你该怎么办？

Who has data on architects?

谁会有建筑师的数据呢？

Other construction companies, but they're direct competitors.

其他建筑公司， 但它们是直接竞争对手。

So where do you go?

那你该怎么办？

Well, you go outside your ecosystem,

嗯，你可以走出你的生态系统，

potentially, for example, with financial institutions, insurances.

例如与金融机构、保险公司合作

You can set up a federated model with them,

您可以与他们建立一个联合模型，

train algos on that,

在此基础上训练算法，

that will in turn make you much stronger

这反过来会让你更有实力

to market to a new consumer segment.

向新的消费细分市场进行营销。

And so are you done?

这样你就算是完事了吗？

If you have that, if you have that data, if you have those skills

如果你有，如果你有这些数据， 如果你有些技能，

are you done, you have that left-AI brain advantage?

你这就算是拥有了 左脑人工智能的优势？

Well, no, actually you are not.

不，事实上你还没有。

If you do that, there is a risk you give all of your right brain

如果你这样做，存在一个风险， 那就是把你所有的右脑

to generative AI

都交给了生成式人工智能，

and in turn run a real risk of losing that divergence,

进而面临真正的风险，失去差异，

losing that super strong brand identity,

失去超级强大的品牌形象，

being trapped in that grand equalization of marketing

陷入到营销均势中。

I was talking about a minute ago.

就像我刚才所说的，

In the Harvard study we conducted

在波士顿咨询集团和哈佛大学

with the Boston Consulting Group and Harvard,

合作进行的一项哈佛研究中，

we found that when people over-rely on generative AI,

我们发现，当人们过度依赖 生成式人工智能时

the collective divergence of ideas drops by 40 percent.

创意的集体发散性会下降40%。

Concretely, that means that new ideas don't come to the surface.

具体而言，这意味着新想法 不再会浮出水面。

It means that true innovation is being stifled.

这意味着真正的创新正在被抑制。

So what is a solve here?

那如何解决这个问题呢？

Well, you need to identify the true artists,

嗯，你需要识别真正的艺术家、

the true differentiators,

真正的与众不同者、

the true innovators of your function.

职能的真正创新者。

Now, if you've ever worked in marketing, you know who these people are.

如果你曾在市场营销领域工作过， 你会就知道这些人是谁。

They are the ones that always disagree with you.

他们就是那些总与你的意见不同的人。

Now you take these people

现在你需要战略性地

and you need to strategically reskill them to use AI well,

重新培养这些人， 让他们很好地使用人工智能，

for example, to be inspired by new ideas,

例如，从新创意中获得灵感，

to be inspired by new trends,

从新趋势中获得启发，

to also crack fast prototypes,

还能快速制造雏型，

to multiply their impact once they've cracked a great idea.

一旦完成了一个伟大的创意， 就有要扩大其影响力。

But you need to protect them and teach them

但是你需要保护他们，并教会他们

from using the AI to generate and originate original ideas.

不要使用人工智能来 产生和创造原创想法。

For that, they have to use their human brain.

为此，必须要使用他们的人脑。

To keep those human juices flowing,

以保持人类源源不断的创造力。

and that, in turn, will protect the identity of your brand

这反过来将保护你品牌的身份

and your differentiation in the market.

和在市场上的差异化。

So I want to close with an advice for any marketer out there.

因此我想以对任何营销人员的建议 来结束我的演讲。

What are you good at?

你擅长什么？

Are you super creative?

你有极强的创造力吗？

Are you the true innovator in the room?

你是在座的人里真正的创新者吗？

Well, if you are, cultivate that.

如果你是，那就好好培养，

That will be your superpower.

那将成为你的超能力。

Do you like data?

你喜欢数据吗？

Are you super rational, are you super fact-based?

你超级理性，超级基于事实的吗？

Then you should specialize.

那你就应该专业化。

You should grow tech skills.

你应该提高技术技能。

You should be investing in predictive AI competencies.

你应该投资于预测性人工智能的能力

But right now, every marketer out there needs to choose their brain.

但现在，每个营销人员 都需要选择使用自己的大脑。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）