Why US Politics Is Broken — and How To Fix It | Andrew Yang | TED

翻译人员: Vivian 'Yiwen' Zhao 校对人员: Sue Lu

It's great to be here.

很高兴来到这里，

I'm Andrew Yang,

我是安德鲁·杨，

I'm going to be talking about why American politics are not working

我将用十分钟谈谈 为何美国政治行不通及解决之道。

and then how to fix them, all within ten minutes.

What do you all think?

你们觉得怎么样？

Yes.

好的。

I'm speaking here in Canada,

这场演讲是在加拿大，

and a friend in Canada described living here,

我的加拿大朋友描述住在这里，

or he compared it to living in the apartment above a meth lab.

像是住在毒品合成实验室的楼上。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Where he's getting very nervous about what's happening below him,

他非常紧张楼下发生的事情，

and it's starting to concern the entire neighborhood.

整个邻里也开始感到担忧。

I'm going to suggest that what's going wrong with American politics

我认为美国政治问题的根源

is born of poor and perverse incentives that are related to a design flaw.

是因设计缺陷导致的不良激励机制。

Now, this design flaw can happily be addressed

现在，我们可以欣慰地解决该缺陷，

at only two percent of the cost

而成本仅为两大党竞选资金的 2%，

of how much the two major parties are going to pour

into this presidential cycle.

就是投在本轮竞选中的资金。

This is, to me, the highest leverage opportunity in the world

这是世界上最具杠杠效应的机会，

to start solving some of our biggest problems.

用来解决一些重大问题。

Now some of you may remember me as the “math guy” from four years ago.

你们中有人也许对我有印象， 四年前那个 “数学家”。

So there will be some math in this presentation.

因此，本演讲也会涉及数学运算。

But I went around the US making the case

当时我在美国四处宣传：

that AI was going to come and change everything

人工智能将改变一切， 我们需要发展经济，

and that we needed to evolve our economy,

adopting measures like universal basic income, to prepare for the future.

采用“全民基本收入” 等措施为未来做准备。

I founded an organization, Humanity Forward,

我创立了名为 “人类向前” 的组织,

that is still working on these ideas today,

该组织至今仍在研究这些。

but I came to realize that nothing profound and positive

但我意识到美国政府 不能产生深远积极的影响，

will come out of the American government

unless we realign the incentives within the system.

除非重新调整体系内的激励机制。

So what do I mean by these incentives?

我所说的激励机制是什么呢？

What is the approval rating of US Congress as we're here together?

大家对美国国会的支持率是多少？

And feel free to shout out a number even if you are not American.

请随意报个数字， 不是美国人也可以参与。

I'm anchoring you low so you know it's low.

友情提示，比率不高。

(Audience laughing and talking)

（观众的笑声和说话声）

I'm hearing 30,

我听见 30，

I'm hearing 20.

我听见 20，

It is lower still, it is 15 percent.

实际上更低，是 15％。

It's been declining a bit, it's been in the 20s.

它一直在下降，之前在 20%左右，

现在约 15％。

Now it's around 15 percent.

What is the re-election rate for incumbent members

众议院现任议员的连任率是多少？

of the House of Representatives?

Anchoring you high.

友情提示，往高猜。

You know it's high.

It's higher still, it's 94 percent.

它比你想的更高， 94 ％。

That’s a higher win rate than the Michael Jordan-era Chicago Bulls,

它高过迈克尔·乔丹时期的 芝加哥公牛队，

The Kevin Durant-era Golden State Warriors.

或凯文·杜兰特的金州勇士队的胜率。

So how can these numbers be so disparate?

为何这些数字会如此两极？

It turns out that 90 percent of the congressional districts

因为 90％ 的国会选区非蓝既红。

in the United States are drawn to be either blue or red.

And the Americans here know what I'm talking about.

观众里的美国人知道我在说什么。

You know which party is going to represent you

投票前选民就知道哪个政党将代表他们。

before a single vote is cast.

So what people imagine

因此，人们的设象是：

is that our leaders have to make 51 percent of us happy

我们的领导人必须让 51％ 的民众满意才能连任。

in order to stay in office.

The truth is that only about 10 to 12 percent of voters

事实是，只有 10％ 至 12％ 的 选民参加这些初选，

participate in these primaries,

and these voters tend to include some of the most ideological or extreme

而他们往往包括政党中 最具意识形态或极端的基础盘。

of the bases of these parties.

I have met many base voters, and let me just say they have ...

我见过很多基础选民， 他们有着很特定的观点。

let's call them specific points of view.

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So how can you lose your job in this system

政客几乎不可能在大选中失败， 那他怎么会在这个体系中失业呢？

if you essentially cannot lose the general election?

You can expire.

他可以任期届满，这是一种可能性。

That's one possibility.

But the other is that you get on the wrong side of these base voters.

另一种可能是他站在了基础选民对立面。

And there were 10 Republican House members

1 月 6 日之后，有 10 名共和党 众议院议员投票弹劾特朗普。

who voted to impeach Donald Trump after January 6.

How many of them made it back through their primaries?

他们中有几位通过初选连任了？

Two.

2 位。

In a system where you have a 94 percent incumbent reelect rate,

在这个连任率为 94％的体系中，

only two out of 10 Republicans made it back to the primaries

只有两成的共和党人在 冒犯基础盘后重返初选。

if they ran afoul of their base.

So the fiction that most Americans have been told is, look,

因此，大部分美国人被误导，以为

our leaders have to make 51 percent of us happy.

领导人须让 51%的人满意才能连任，

The reality is that they have to stay on the good side

其实他们只须拉拢党内 10％的基础选民。

of approximately 10 percent of their party's base voters.

So this tends to bring people a bit to the sides,

这往往会使人们选边站， 由此也改变了他们的激励机制。

it changes their incentives.

This is one reason why America's political parties feel

所以，美国政党也感到

like they're not listening to a lot of the public.

他们似乎没在聆听公众的心声。

So you have the party primaries

首先，党内初选将选民推向极端。

that are stretching us toward the extremes.

Then you have our media organizations

然后媒体将我们分隔到不同阵营。

that are separating us into tribes and teams.

You know which team's media you're watching at any moment.

你随时都知道你看的是哪边阵营的媒体，

And then you have social media pouring gasoline on the whole thing.

另外还有社交媒体在火上加油。

And if you had to put numbers on this, you can imagine the power of these forces.

如果必须用数字来描述， 你可以想象这些势力的强大，

And they're getting stronger, not weaker.

而且他们越来越强大。

What do you all think?

你们认同吗？

This is a reasonable summary?

这总结合理吗？

So it's gotten to the point now where a US senator said this.

现在事态已经到这个地步， 以至于一个美国议员如是说：

He said, "A problem is now worth more to us unaddressed than addressed."

“一个问题不解决时比解决更有价值。”

What happens if some brave legislators lean across the aisle

当一些勇敢的立法者跨界走向对立面，

and try to compromise and find a solution to a big, hairy problem?

试图通过妥协解决棘手问题， 那时会发生什么？

They worked with the enemy, they're ideologically impure,

他们被说成与敌共谋，意识形态不纯；

their base turns on them, and their job security goes down.

他们遭基础盘反对，工作也朝不保夕。

What happens if they let the problem linger and fester?

但如果任由问题持续恶化呢？

Nothing.

他们反而没事。

They can raise money, they can get votes, they can get you mad.

他们可以筹资、获得选票、令你发狂，

And they have a 94 percent re-election rate.

然后仍保持 94%的连任率。

So you can put any major problem in this bucket.

因此，任何重大问题 都能放入这个问题筐里；

And this is why it feels like we're not making meaningful progress.

也因此，我们感到没取得有意义的进展。

You could put immigration in there,

你可以把移民问题放进筐里，

you could put climate change in there,

还有气候变化，

you could put AI in there, you could put poverty in there.

人工智能，以及贫困问题。

So have I managed to depress you all in about five minutes?

刚刚这五分钟里， 我有没有成功让你感到沮丧？

Believe it or not, I'm actually now going to get us all the way out of this

但下面的五分钟里，我将带你走出低谷。

in the next five.

There is a real solution to this situation,

这种情况确实有解决办法，

and I want to give credit to Katherine Gehl and Michael Porter,

我要感谢凯瑟琳·盖尔和迈克尔·波特，

who co-wrote the book "The Politics Industry"

他们合著了《政治产业》一书， 提出这个解决方案。

who make this case.

So Alaska in 2020 changed its primary process

2020 年，阿拉斯加改变初选程序，

to make it so that candidates run in one primary from any party,

规定各党派所有候选人都可参加初选，

and then the winner is chosen via ranked choice voting.

然后通过普选的“排序选择投票” 选出最终获胜者。

This is an Alaskan ballot, and you can choose up to four candidates,

这是阿拉斯加普选的选票， 你最多可以选四名候选人，

first, second, third, fourth choice.

第一、第二、第三、第四选择。

I’m going to take a couple of minutes just to review for the non-Americans,

我想先给这里的非美国人和

and maybe some Americans here, how the primary process ordinarily works.

部分美国人普及一下美国初选程序。

So the way it works is that you have people running in each party.

首先，每个党派都会有人参选。

You have nominees who are chosen,

先在党内提名参选人，

and then the nominees run against each other.

被提名的各党参选人再相互竞争。

And the party that is dominant in that district wins.

该地区占主导地位的政党最终获胜。

And as we saw, in 90 percent of the districts,

如前所说，在 90％的选区中，

you know which party is going to win that general election.

哪个政党普选中会获胜一清二楚。

In this new system in Alaska,

而在阿拉斯加的新的初选体系中，

that was changed in 2020,

now you have the top four candidates of any party

产生前四名候选人（可能来自任何党派），

get through to the general election,

进入普选，其中一人 通过“排序选择投票“胜出。

and then they are chosen via ranked choice voting,

which we're going to go into an illustration of right now.

我们现在将用图文举例说明。

So this change was made in 2020,

这项改革在 2020 年制定，

it applied in 2022.

在 2022 年投入运作。

How many of you have heard of Sarah Palin?

有多少人听说过莎拉·佩林？

Somehow worldwide.

不知何故，全世界都认识她。

How many of you have heard of Mary Peltola?

你们听说过玛丽·佩尔托拉吗？

Mary Peltola is the relatively anonymous state legislator

玛丽·佩尔托拉是位相对无名的州议员，

who defeated Sarah Palin for a congressional seat in 2022.

她在 2022 年击败 莎拉·佩林获得国会席位。

Now in a conventional system,

在传统的党内初选体系中，

Sarah Palin probably wins the Republican primary

莎拉·佩林很可能赢得共和党初选，

and then probably wins the general election

然后再赢普选，

because Alaska is a red-leaning state.

因为阿拉斯加是一个偏红色的州。

But in this new system, via ranked choice voting,

但是在“排序选择投票”的新体系中，

Mary Peltola ends up emerging as the winner in the second round,

玛丽·佩尔托拉 最终成为第二轮的赢家，

in part because a critical mass of Alaskan voters put her second.

因为很多阿拉斯加选民 将她排在了第二。

And in this same cycle, believe it or not,

知道吗？在这个竞选周期中，

this is a very important race because if Sarah Palin had won,

这是一场非常重要的竞赛， 如果当时莎拉·佩林赢了，

she'd be in DC right now.

她现在就会在华盛顿特区，

There would be a TV camera presented to her just about every day

每天都会有台电视摄像机对着她：

and asking her, "Say something crazy, Sarah, say something crazy."

“说点疯狂的话吧，莎拉。”

And then she would say, "Glad to. That's kind of why I'm here."

她会说：“好的，这也是我在这的原因。”

She would say something crazy,

她会说些疯狂的话，

and then that would be presented to the other side and say,

然后媒体会拿这去问对立派：

“看到莎拉说的疯话了吗？你怎么看？”

"Did you see the crazy thing Sarah said?

What do you think?"

这就是当下的 “新闻”，

And that's what would pass for news.

让我们智商损失 3 点， 变得更愚蠢可悲。

And we'd all be three IQ points dumber and sadder.

（笑声和掌声）

(Laughter and applause)

So this outcome was averted by this new system.

幸好新选举体系避免了这种结果。

But of even more importance was that in the same cycle,

更重要的是，在同一选举周期中，

Senator Lisa Murkowski was up for re-election.

参议员丽莎·默科夫斯基 也正准备重新竞选。

And Senator Lisa Murkowski has the distinction

而她的特殊情况是，

of being the only Republican senator who voted to impeach Donald Trump,

她是当年唯一的共和党参议员 投票弹劾唐纳德·特朗普。

who was up for re-election.

After her impeachment vote,

在她进行弹劾投票后，

her favorability rating was measured at six percent among Alaskan Republicans.

她在阿拉斯加共和党中的 支持度仅为 6％，

They did not like that impeachment vote.

因为她的同僚很反感那次弹劾投票。

But there is no party primary in Alaska anymore,

但阿拉斯加已经没有党内初选了，

so she went through essentially to the general,

所以她顺畅进入普选，

and she ended up emerging as the winner

并且最终成为赢家，

because she was again the second choice

因为普选中她是多数选民的第二选择。

of a critical number of voters.

So this change in Alaska had profound effects within two years,

因此，阿拉斯加初选体系的改革 在两年内产生了深远的影响。

and it cost six million dollars to adopt this reform campaign.

这项改革花费了 600 万美元，

Six million dollars.

仅仅 600 万美元。

You know how much the two parties are going to spend

两大党将在此次总统竞选中花多少钱？

this presidential cycle?

100 亿美元。

10 billion dollars.

我斗胆说，这 600 万美元是 有史以来影响最大的一笔投资，

I'm going to suggest that this six million dollars

is the highest impact investment any of us has ever seen.

And it's evergreen.

而且还是持续性的。

It turns out that 25 states have ballot initiative measures

原来 25 个州都有投票倡议措施，

where you could change the primaries into this new,

可以将初选体系改为这种无党派初选和

nonpartisan primary

and ranked choice voting combination

“排序选择投票” 相结合的新体系，

that ends up realigning the incentives

重新调整激励机制， 使其脱离极端，回归民众。

away from the extremes and toward the public.

Nevada voted to approve the Alaska system in 2022.

内华达州在 2022 年 投票通过了阿拉斯加选举体系。

That campaign cost a little bit more,

内华达改革运动成本稍高一些，

it cost 22 million dollars.

耗资 2200 万美元。

But the advertisement that I thought put it over the top

我认为其宣传片的高光

was a military veteran looking at the camera and saying,

是一位退伍军人看着镜头说： “多年来我在海外保家卫国，

"I went overseas to defend our country for years.

I came back and as an independent, I can't vote in our primaries.

回来后却不能作为独立人士 在初选中投票。我认为这是不对的。”

And I don't think that's right."

53 percent of Nevadans agreed with that veteran,

53％的内华达人同意退伍军人的观点，

even though both major parties came out against it.

尽管两个主要政党都表示反对。

And in November, there are five more states that are considering

11 月，又有 5 个州 考虑实施同样的改革。

a version of these reforms.

I want you all to imagine six, eight, 10 US senators

大家设象一下， 如果有 6、8、或 10 位美国参议员

who are all of a sudden freed of their party primary

突然摆脱了党内初选的束缚； 同样，如果一些国会议员也能自由参选，

and a similar number of members of Congress.

Do you think that would meaningfully rationalize American politics

这能帮助美国政治变得更合理更好吗？

and change them for the better?

(Applause)

（掌声）

That is the vision that is on the table right now.

这就是目前的愿景。

And the cost of this, if you were to adopt these reforms

而推行这项改革的成本是,

and try them in 10 states, not all of them would pass.

假设在 10 个州推行， 也许一半的州会通过，

Maybe half of them would pass,

but the total cost would be about 200 million dollars,

那么总成本约为 2 亿美元，

which is only two percent of the 10 billion dollars

仅占大选资金 100 亿美元的 2%。

that are going to be spent turning Americans against each other,

这场大选在接下来几个月里， 将令美国人相互对抗、仇恨、和惧怕。

making us hate and fear each other over the next number of months.

应该花多少钱调整激励机制， 从而使政府真正发挥作用？

How much should be spent realigning our incentives

so that government actually works?

So it's a political year.

今年是大选年，

I know there's going to be a lot of energy in the air,

我知道整个氛围将很躁动。

but if you feel like you are forced to join one team or the other,

如果你感觉正被迫加入某个团队，

I hope you'll consider joining team "overhaul the incentives."

我希望你考虑加入 “改革激励机制”团队。

Because if enough of us join that team,

如果我们很多人都加入，

then maybe America will start to feel a little bit more like one team again,

或许美国能再次像个团结的阵营，

and we can get to work solving the real problems of this era

我们一起着手解决 这个时代真正重要的问题，

and build a future we can all be excited about.

共建一个人人为之兴奋的未来。

Thank you all.

谢谢大家。

(Cheers and applause)

（欢呼和掌声）