The Israel-Hamas War — and What It Means for the World | Ian Bremmer | TED

翻译人员: Maple Dilidili 校对人员: suya f.

Helen Walters: Hello, everybody.

(注：本视频立场 不代表TED翻译者的意见）

海伦·沃尔特斯：大家好。

Two days ago, on October 7,

两天前，10月7日，

the Palestinian Sunni-Islamic fundamentalist organization Hamas

巴勒斯坦逊尼派伊斯兰 原教旨主义组织哈马斯

attacked Israel, overrunning two military bases,

袭击了以色列， 占领了两个军事基地，

occupying territory,

占领了领土，

killing hundreds of Israeli citizens and taking dozens more as hostages.

杀害了数百名以色列公民， 并劫持了数十人为人质。

It was the most significant breach of Israel's borders

这是自1973年赎罪日战争以来

since the Yom Kippur War of 1973.

最严重的以色列边境入侵事件。

The attacks were clearly long- and well-planned,

这些袭击显然是 长时间精心策划的，

and they sent shock waves of fear and panic through the region

它们给该地区和全世界带来了

and the world.

恐惧和恐慌的巨大冲击。

Obviously, it's two days later.

显然，已经过了两天。

It is way too soon to understand all of the ramifications of these attacks.

现在了解这些攻击的 所有后果还为时过早。

But we can try to understand how we got here

但是我们可以尝试了解 局势是如何发展到这一步，

and the implications of this awful moment.

以及这个糟糕时刻所造成的影响。

So we asked our community to share their questions

因此，我们请大家分享 各自的问题，并做出回答。

and to answer them, I am joined by Ian Bremmer,

我邀请到了

president and founder of political risk research

政治风险研究和咨询公司欧亚集团 的总裁兼创始人

and consulting firm Eurasia Group.

伊恩·布雷默 Ian Bremmer

Hi Ian.

你好，伊恩(Ian)。

Ian Bremmer: Helen, great to be with you.

海伦(Helen)，你好。 很高兴与你对话。

HW: Alright, so let's get right to it.

好的，我们进入正题。

We've had a number of our community who really want you to explain

我们社区中的很多人都想 请你解释一个看似的简单的问题

the very simple question of how we got here.

那就是整个局势 是怎么发展到这一步的。

So can you share the historical context for this moment?

那么，你能否分享一下 与之相关的历史背景？

And if you like, give us a bit of a Gaza 101.

如果可以的话，给我们讲讲 “加沙地区背景概览”。

IB: Well, I mean, Gaza, we've got a population,

嗯，说到加沙地区， 首先就是人口，

a Palestinian population of just over two million,

这里有200万出头的 巴勒斯坦人。

2.2 million, exceedingly poor.

这220万人， 生活在极端贫困中。

And, you know, without sovereignty, without statehood,

而且，你知道， 他们没有主权，没有建国，

and a part of the Palestinian occupied territories,

还有一部分巴勒斯坦 被占领土，

also the West Bank, more people, 3.5 million.

以及约旦河西岸， 有更多的人，350万之多。

The West Bank run not very well by the Palestinian Authority,

巴勒斯坦权力机构 没能很好的管理约旦河西岸。

which recognizes Israel's right to exist.

巴勒斯坦权力机构 承认以色列存在的权利。

Gaza, run really badly, with very little resources,

加沙地区管理得非常糟糕， 那里资源匮乏，

run by Hamas,

由哈马斯管理。

which does not recognize Israel's right to exist.

哈马斯不承认以色列存在的权利。

Now we've been talking about a two-state solution for a very long time.

我们关于建立两个国家的 讨论已经由来已久。

For the idea that the only way you end up with stability

这个想法是在以色列人 和巴勒斯坦人之间

between the Israelis and the Palestinians

达成稳定的唯一途径是

is if the Palestinians have some ability to govern themselves,

巴勒斯坦人有一定的自我治理能力，

have some control over their economic trajectory,

对自己的经济发展方向，

over their foreign policy, over their borders.

外交政策、 边境管控 有一定的掌控能力。

That is not where we stand right now.

现在的情况还不是这样。

And indeed,

事实上，

the idea of a two-state solution has kind of lost the collective interest,

建立两个国家的解决方案构想 一定程度上已经失去了共同利益、

imagination, traction, for two reasons.

想象力和吸引力，原因有两个。

First, because the Middle East has moved on.

首先，是因为 中东世界已经向前发展。

A bunch of countries around the region

该地区许多国家发现

have found that they are interested in developing direct relations,

他们对与以色列直接建立关系有兴趣，

some formal, some informal, with Israel,

有些是正式的，有些是非正式的。

and that they're willing to do that

并且他们愿意这么做。

irrespective of resolving the Palestinian question,

不论巴勒斯坦问题 解决与否，

the Palestinian problem.

他们都愿意这样做。

And we've seen that with the Abraham Accords

在特朗普政府领导下的

under the Trump administration,

《亚伯拉罕协议》中， 我们已经看到了这一点。

where the UAE, the United Arab Emirates,

该协议中阿联酋、 阿拉伯联合酋长国、

Bahrain and Morocco all directly established diplomatic relations

巴林和摩洛哥都直接与以色列

with Israel.

建立了外交关系。

If you go to Dubai or Abu Dhabi today,

如果你今天去迪拜或阿布扎比，

you will see Israeli tourists like you wouldn't imagine.

你会看到你以为 不可想象的以色列游客。

And they’re having a great time and they’re spending money

但他们在当地游玩消费， 度过愉快的时光。

and they're taking in the sites

他们去那里的旅游胜地，

and they're very welcomed by the Emirates.

阿联酋欢迎他们的到来。

Unimaginable that was going to happen 10 or 20 years ago.

10或20年前这样的情景 是不可想象的。

In fact, Saudi Arabia was very close,

事实上，与沙特建交已经非常接近了，

not within weeks, it wasn't imminent,

虽然不是在几周之内， 不能说立即马上，

but certainly within months of signing a deal with Israel

但肯定是在与以色列签署

that would allow for them to open diplomatic relations.

允许他们建立外交关系的协议 之后的几个月之内。

And there's already been a number

已经有好几项

of high-level diplomatic relations informally

非正式的高级别外交关系

between Mohammed bin Salman and Prime Minister Netanyahu.

在沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼 和以色列内塔尼亚胡总理之间建立。

So, in other words, across the region, you had Israel, frankly,

因此，换句话说，以色列 在整个地区得到了认可。

in the strongest geopolitical position that they've been in decades.

以色列处于几十年来 它的地缘政治地位最强的形势中。

They've been surrounded by enemies.

一直以来， 以色列周围都是敌人。

Well, now they're increasingly surrounded by countries they can do business with.

但现在他们越来越多地 与周围国家建立经贸关系。

In fact, just a couple of weeks ago,

实际上，就在几周前，

there was an announcement of a deal

阿拉伯联合酋长国宣布了一项协议，

where the United Arab Emirates was investing massively

即阿拉伯联合酋长国

into solar power for Jordan,

大量投资给约旦的太阳能产业，

which would then be given to Israel

然后下一步将其提供给以色列，

in return for desalinized water processed by Israel.

以换取以色列处理的淡化水。

Even five years ago, inconceivable a deal like that could happen.

即使在五年前，也难以想象 会有这样的协议发生。

So the Israelis, technologically very sophisticated,

因此，以色列人 拥有先进技术，

an advanced industrial economy,

是一个发达的工业经济体，

are only standing to make more money

他们持续存在，并通过

by doing business with all of these countries.

与所有这些国家做生意 来赚更多的钱。

What's been happening with the Palestinians?

巴勒斯坦人什么情况？

Nothing.

什么都没有。

The answer is nothing.

答案是 什么都没有。

They're not benefiting economically.

他们没有从经济上获利，

And all of these deals for Israel have happened without any consequences,

所有这些与以色列达成的协议 都没有任何不利后果，

any contingencies for the Palestinians.

也没有给巴勒斯坦人的 任何应急储备。

And indeed in Israel,

事实上，在以色列，

you know, there have been a lot of headlines.

你知道吗， 有很多头条新闻。

Israel's made a lot of news this year, but not because of the Palestinians.

以色列今年登上了很多新闻， 但不是因为巴勒斯坦人。

Israel has made news

以色列登上新闻头条，

because of their own domestic constitutional crisis,

是因为他们自己 国内的宪法危机，

an effort by the Prime Minister, Netanyahu,

总理内塔尼亚胡及其右翼联盟

and his right-wing coalition to engage in judicial reform,

所推进的司法改革。

an Israeli judiciary which is very independent,

以色列司法机构， 在民主政体之下，

which has, in the context of democracies,

是一个非常独立的机构，

a very surprising amount of authority over making

不仅在制订法律方面， 而且在解释以色列法律方面

but also interpretation of laws in Israel.

都拥有令人惊叹的权力。

What can and what cannot be considered a reasonable law to be executed.

什么可以和什么不能 被视为可以执行的合理法律。

And for a country that doesn't have a constitution,

对于一个没有宪法的国家来说，

not surprising perhaps, the judiciary is so powerful.

司法机构如此强大， 这也许不足为奇。

And Netanyahu facing corruption charges

与此同时，内塔尼亚 胡面临腐败指控，

and with a very weak right-wing coalition relying on far right,

右翼联盟非常薄弱， 且依赖极端右翼。

extremist right party as part of that coalition,

极端右翼政党 作为该联盟的一部分，

was pushing for these reforms.

正在推动这些改革。

Now, why am I talking about that?

我为什么现在要谈到这些？

Because for the last six months,

因为在过去的六个月中，

there have been unprecedented demonstrations across Israel,

以色列各地发生了 前所未有的示威活动，

peaceful demonstrations,

虽然是和平示威，

but bringing out the entire country.

但却席卷了整个国家。

Because they were concerned about a constitutional crisis.

因为他们担心 宪政危机。

Kind of an irony for a country without a constitution.

对于一个没有宪法的 国家来说，这有点讽刺。

If Netanyahu persisted,

如果内塔尼亚胡坚持下去，

went ahead with these reforms.

继续进行这些改革，

No one was talking about the Palestinians.

就没有人谈论巴勒斯坦人。

And indeed,

事实上，

large numbers of troops that had been in the south

曾经驻扎在南部的大量部队

were moved to the West Bank

被调动到了西岸，

as the Netanyahu government was expanding the settlements in that territory

因为内塔尼亚胡政府 在该地区拓展定居点，

and responding to Palestinian reprisals against those settlements.

此举作为回应巴勒斯坦人 对这些定居点的报复行动。

So they weren't focused on the issue.

没有人关注这个问题。

They took their eyes off the ball.

大家的注意力偏移了。

Israel had other priorities,

以色列还有其他优先事项，

and the Palestinians were in a position not only to lose their friends

巴勒斯坦人 不仅有可能失去

around the region

在整个地区的友邦，

but also increasingly an afterthought for the Israeli government

而且越来越成为以色列政府 和以色列人民

and the Israeli people.

的关心事项之外的事情。

That is the backdrop for where we are today.

这就是我们当下局面 的背景情况。

HW: So let's dig in a little bit into the idea that you bring up

所以让我们来深入探讨一下你提到的

of the kind of the troubles that have been roiling Netanyahu

关于内塔尼亚胡和 以色列政府

and the Israeli government themselves.

所正在经历的困难。

So I think one of the things that has been brought up

我认为此次事件中 暴露的问题之一是

is the massive failure of intelligence and defense systems in Israel

以色列的情报和国防系统 严重失灵

that allowed this attack to happen.

使这次袭击得以发生。

What happens next?

接下来会发生什么？

Do you see Israel uniting around Netanyahu?

你有看到以色列团结在 内塔尼亚胡周围吗？

Do you see this fracturing even worse with anger at what happened

还是说由于对国防和情报系统失误 导致袭击事件发生的愤怒

in the lapses in defense and intelligence insights?

使这种分裂更加严重？

Or what happens next?

或者接下来会发生什么？

IB: Well, the first point I should make

嗯，我想说的是，第一点

is just for everyone to understand what has just happened

想帮大家了解 关于以色列

to the Israeli consciousness.

到底发生了什么。

It is unimaginable

你知道，这对于某些

that, you know, certainly someone in a developed country

生活在发达国家的人来说，

could have any understanding

以色列的犹太人 现在正在经历的事情，

of what the Jewish people in Israel are presently going through.

简直是不可想象的。

This feeling that, you know, after the Holocaust and, you know,

这种感觉，你知道， 在大屠杀之后，

the land being provided to them to have a safe haven

这里为他们提供了安全的土地

to create an independent Israeli state.

以建立独立的以色列国，

And the need to defend their borders,

以及保卫边境的必要性。

the historic fights they've had with their neighbors,

他们与邻国历史上的争战，

the war in 1973,

1973年的战争，

when a number of Arab nations decided to fight against them.

当时许多阿拉伯国家 决定联合与他们作战。

And, you know, the continual sense of besiegement

而且，你知道， 人们所持续感受到的

with missiles from Hezbollah, for example, terrorist operations.

黎巴嫩真主党的导弹的围困， 以及诸如恐怖袭击之类的担心。

This is not like a bolt from the blue

这不像是美国经历9/11事件，

when the United States experienced 9/11.

是完全没有预料的偶发事件。

Israel’s 9/11 is both massively greater in the impact on Israel

相比之下以色列的9/11事件 不仅对以色列的影响要大得多，

but also comes for a country that was supposed to be prepared for this.

而且还发生在一个应该说 对这种事件有所准备的国家。

I mean, Israel represents the gold standard

我的意思是说， 以色列代表着

on border security around the world.

全球边境安全的黄金标准。

Not like the United States, where you've got, you know,

不像美国，大家都知道，

all sorts of people running across

有各种各样的人越境而来，

and "build the wall" becomes a clarion call

“修建隔离墙” 之所以成为号角，

precisely because nobody understands how to defend the border, no.

恰恰是因为没人知道如何保卫边境， 没人能做到。

And also, intelligence collection, surveillance, digital surveillance,

还有情报收集、监视、数字监控、

human intelligence collection on the ground,

实地人员情报收集，

especially in the occupied territories.

尤其是在被占领土。

This is what they do.

这些是他们所擅长做的。

And the fact is that right now, today,

事实是，现在，即今天，

Netanyahu's legacy will not be anything that he has done to date.

内塔尼亚胡的传奇将不再是 他迄今为止所做的任何事情，

It will be this failure and how he responds to it.

而变成是这次失败， 以及他如何应对失败。

Period, end of story.

就这么简单。

Nothing else is close.

没有其他什么更接近事实了。

So what that means for Israel

因此，这对以色列来说

is that all of the issues that have roiled this country

意味着过去一年来

over the past year,

困扰这个国家的所有问题，

all of the political polarization,

所有的政治两极分化，

and it's not a two-party country,

以及它不是一个两党制国家，

it’s a many, many-party country.

而是一个多党制国家。

You know, the joke is you get three people together in Israel

你知道有个笑话是这样说的 在以色列三个人聚集在一起，

and, you know, you form a new political party.

然后，就成立了一个新的政党。

And if you go to the coffeehouses and the rest,

而且，如果你去咖啡馆 或其他什么公共场所看看，

everybody's talking politics.

每个人都在谈论政治。

Everyone reads the newspapers.

每个人都读报纸。

This is a highly politically literate and divided population.

这是一个具有高度政治素养 和分裂的人口构成。

But as of right now,

但就目前而言，

priority one, two and three for the entire Israeli people

全体以色列人民的第一、 第二和第三优先事项

is to respond to these attacks, these terrorist attacks.

就是要回应这些袭击， 这些恐怖袭击。

And how are they going to respond to them?

他们将如何回应他们？

Well, number one,

第一，

they've got to find a way to get their people back.

他们必须想办法 让他们的人民回来。

There are 100-plus, and we don't know the exact numbers right now,

有超过100名， 且我们不知道确切人数的人质，

hostages that are being held in Gaza, most of whom are civilians.

被扣押 在加沙地区， 其中大多数是平民。

And they will do everything to get them back.

他们会尽一切努力 让他们回来。

And they may well have direct American support in trying to accomplish that.

他们很可能得到美国的直接 支持来达到这一目标。

And then it will be to go into Gaza,

然后是进入加沙，

to remove the leadership of Gaza,

罢免加沙领导层，

to disarm the militias in the territory of Gaza,

解除加沙地区的民兵武装，

and to do everything they can to try to ensure

并尽一切努力确保

that this cannot happen again.

这种情况不会再次发生。

And making that happen is a very, very tall order.

实现这一目标是 一项非常非常艰巨的任务。

It might be a taller order than the Israelis can accomplish,

这个目标有可能 超出了以色列的能力，

and certainly the knock-on consequences will be grave even for just Gaza.

而且可以确定直接后果即使对于 加沙地区来说也将是异常惨烈的。

And that is before we talk about any potential expansion of the war.

这还是在我们谈论战争的 任何潜在扩张可能之前。

But for now, the Israeli people will stand together.

但就目前而言， 以色列人民将团结起来。

And there's already talk of a government of national emergency

而且已经有人在讨论 国家紧急状态政府

that would bring together Netanyahu with the leader of the Israeli opposition

使内塔尼亚胡与 以色列反对派领导人团结起来

for the purposes of fighting this war

共同打这场战争，

so that everyone in Israel is together collectively,

这样以色列 所有人才能团结起来，

ensuring the national security of the people of Israel.

确保以色列人民的国家安全。

And I think that for the course of the coming months,

而且我认为，在接下来的几个月里，

and let us remember,

让我们记住，

this is not just, you know, an attack against Israel and now they respond.

这不仅仅是对以色列的袭击， 以及现在他们做出了回应。

It is very likely there are Hamas operatives

很有可能哈马斯特工

on the ground inside Israel right now

现在就在以色列境内，

that the Israeli government has to find and neutralize.

以色列政府必须 找到并消灭他们。

It is also true that, you know,

的确，你知道，

you're still actively expecting

你还将预期很可能会有

that there are going to be additional attacks,

更多的袭击，

whether those are missile attacks

无论是导弹袭击

or whether those are direct incursions,

还是直接入侵，

nobody knows,

没人知道。

but given the level of planning that was required by Hamas

但是考虑到哈马斯周末的袭击

to make these strikes over the weekend,

所需要其具有的相应计划水准，

which nobody in Israel thought was possible, no one expected it,

以色列完全没有想到他们具备， 所以对袭击毫无准备。

right now, that level of concern would be higher

现在，这种担忧程度会更高，

than anything else on the political agenda.

比政治议程上的 其他任何事情都要高。

And again, that will not move for the foreseeable future.

再说一遍，在可预见 的将来，这种情况不会改变。

HW: So I want to talk more about all of that

主持人：所以我想更多地谈谈 所有这些内容，

and expand this to obviously the broader geopolitical implications of this.

然后将其扩展到更广泛 的地缘政治影响。

But I want to just play out the 9/11 reference a little bit if you can,

如果可以的話，我想稍微讲一点 9/11的相关信息作为 参考，

because obviously 9/11 happened some time ago

因为很明显 9/11是一些年前发生的

with the attack on the United States.

针对美国的袭击。

But we know with retrospect, with hindsight,

但是事后回想起来，

that some of the decisions that were made after that

9/11之后做出的一些决定

were misguided, they were misjudged,

是被误导了的， 造成了误判，

they actually led to terrible harm.

并事实上导致了可怕的伤害。

How and who is going to make sure

谁能够以及如何能够确保

that these types of decisions are not made?

不会再做出这类决定？

And how can Israel avoid making decisions

同时以色列如何能避免

that will be bad?

做出糟糕的决定？

IB: As someone who was in New York on 9/11

作为9/11时间发生的时候身在纽约，

and saw the second tower go down

目睹了第二座塔楼倾倒，

and saw how the city rallied together, how the country rallied together,

同时也看到了这座城市 是如何团结起来的，

President Bush, over 90 percent approval in the country

布什总统， 在9/11事件发生几个月后，

a couple of months after 9/11,

支持率达到90%以上，

how the world came together to support the United States,

整个世界是如何团结起来 支持美国，

the coalition of the willing, well beyond NATO.

这是一个由自愿者组成的联盟， 远远超出北约范畴。

I mean, poor countries

我的意思是，

that had no business caring about what the United States was up to

那些和美国没有任何瓜葛的 贫穷国家

providing troops on the ground and support for the Americans.

为美国人提供地面部队和支援。

Russia, Putin's Russia, calling up Bush and offering, you know,

俄罗斯，普京治下的俄罗斯， 打电话给布什，

the former Soviet republics in Central Asia

提出以中亚的前苏联加盟共和国

as bases to support for logistical operations

作为支持阿富汗战争

for the war in Afghanistan.

后勤行动的基地。

I mean, the level of support for the United States after 9/11

我的意思是，9/11之后 世界对美国的支持水平

was singular.

是绝无仅有的。

And there's no question that the outpouring of concern,

毫无疑问， 关切纷涌而来，

I mean, when I saw in Berlin,

当我在柏林

shining on the Brandenburg Gate,

看到勃兰登堡门上

the Israeli flag with the star of David

闪耀着大卫之星的以色列国旗时，

in Germany, in Berlin, in Germany,

在德国，在柏林，

and given the history

鉴于这里的历史，

and given what that means

有着不寻常的含义，

and given the Alternative für Deutschland doing well in East Germ --

鉴于德国政党选择党 在东德成绩斐然——

all of that, I mean, this is a singular moment

所有这些因素使然，我是说，

in the relationship between Germany and Israel.

这是德国和以色列关系中的 一个异常微妙的时刻。

The European Union suspending aid to the Palestinians,

欧盟暂停 对巴勒斯坦人的援助，

the support for Israel is extraordinary.

而世界对以色列的支持非同寻常。

Narendra Modi In India.

印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪也在其中。

It is not universal for every country,

虽然并非每个国家都表示支持，

but it is absolutely wide-ranging.

但支持者范围绝对广泛。

And I got a readout,

我得到相关数据，

I spoke to several of the folks

我与参与本周末在联合国举行的

involved in the Emergency Security Council meeting

安全理事会会议的几位人士

at the United Nations this weekend.

进行了交谈。

The condemnation of these attacks, everyone but Russia.

除了俄罗斯以外的所有人 都对袭击表示谴责，

And again, so in that regard, this is very, very similar to 9/11.

再次重申，在这方面， 这与9/11事件非常非常相似。

Now, the broader question that you're asking, Helen,

现在，海伦，你问到的 关于边境的问题，

which I'm also very sensitive to,

我也非常敏感，

is in 2023, looking back on 9/11,

立足于2023年回顾 9/11，

the Americans made some horrible, horrible, long-lasting mistakes.

美国人犯了一些及其糟糕， 又长期存在的错误。

And some of those mistakes were in the United States.

其中一些错误 发生在美国本土，

I mean, if I think about how much money was spent and wasted

我的意思是，如果我想一想

in the Department of Homeland Security,

国土安全部花了多少钱

on personal security and safety in the airlines,

浪费在航空公司的人身安全上，

how much money was wasted,

浪费了多少钱，

how much economic inefficiency as a consequence

由于夸大了美国受到的 恐怖主义威胁

of overstating the terrorist threat in the US,

而导致了多少经济效率低下，

everything else secondary to that.

所有其他事情都被至于其下。

But also, the rights that were stripped back

但是，在某些情况下 ，

for, in some cases, all Americans

所有美国人

in terms of surveillance and the Patriot Act.

在有关监视和《爱国者法案》 方面的权利也被剥夺。

But also targeting Muslim Americans across the country

与此同时，全国各地的 穆斯林裔美国人受到针对

and so much mistreatment of American citizens

因此产生的对美国公民的不恰当对待

as a consequence of that.

也随之而来。

But that's nothing compared to the mistakes made internationally.

但与在国际上犯的错误相比， 这都算不上什么。

A war of choice in Iraq,

主动选择发动伊拉克战争，

responding to 9/11

作为对9/11事件的回应，

with trillions of dollars wasted

浪费了数万亿美元，

and lives, millions of lives destroyed.

数百万人失去生命。

Afghanistan, 20 years on, a failed war

20年过去了， 阿富汗战争一败涂地，

with the Taliban returning to power

塔利班重新掌权，

and a failed state.

建国失败。

Yes, bin Laden was killed,

是的，本·拉登被杀，

and I think people around the world cheered that,

我认为世界各地的人们 都为此欢呼，

not just in the United States,

而不仅仅是在美国。

and Al Qaeda was destroyed at the highest levels

基地组织在最高层被摧毁，

and in many cases uprooted completely.

组织绝大多数彻底剿灭。

But no one can look back on the 20-plus years since 9/11

但是，没有人能回顾 自9/11事件以来的20多年，

and say that the American response with the war on terror was successful.

然后说美国的反恐战争 应对是成功的。

You can't do that.

不可能这样说。

And Israel is not the United States.

而且以色列不是美国。

The Americans have extraordinary strength and resilience

美国人在国家安全能力 和经济规模方面

in its national security capabilities and the size of its economy,

拥有非凡的力量和韧性，

also in where it's located geopolitically.

在地缘政治上也是如此。

Israel certainly has the military strength in the region,

以色列在该地区当然拥有 军事实力优势，

but the the country is small.

但这个国家很小。

The territory is small.

领土很小。

And certainly it is not in a geopolitical space that is comfortable.

而且，它在地缘政治方面 也并不舒服。

And so I think the danger here

因此，我认为这里的危险在于，

is that as the Israelis respond against Hamas,

当以色列人对哈马斯 作出反应时，

as they should and as they must,

当然他们应该也必须做出反应，

and as they work to destroy the leadership of that terrorist organization

他们正在努力摧毁 该恐怖组织的领导层 ，

and disarm the militants that are involved in the attacks against Israel

解除参与袭击以色列 并构成持续威胁的

and pose an ongoing threat.

武装分子的武装。

But that is certainly not the only knock-on consequences

但这当然不是以色列决策

of Israel's decision making.

的唯一连锁后果。

And the potential for this to become a broader war

而且，这有可能 变成一场更广泛的战争，

that would envelop the Middle East in conflagration

将中东笼罩在战火阴云之中，

and that ultimately could even end Israel

最终甚至可能导致以色列消失，

is real

一切皆有可能。

in a way that the war on terror could not have threatened

某种程度来说， 反恐战争

the United States existentially.

不可能威胁到美国存在。

And I, as a consequence, I certainly believe

我认为，从结果方面来说，我确信

that a unity government will make it less likely

一个团结的政府 将降低以色列人以

that the Israelis overreact in that way.

这种方式反应过度的可能性。

I certainly believe that the United States,

我也确信，

in providing very strong and committed support,

美国会提供非常有力 和坚定的支持，

but also notes of caution in what can be done

但也会谨慎提醒 什么能做，

and what should not be done,

和什么不能做，

will hopefully restrain the worst impulses.

希望这能够抑制 最坏的冲动。

And, you know, in the early moments, again,

而且，你知道， 在事情发生的初期，

we all understand why Israel would feel the need to react

我们都能理解为什么以色列 会觉得有必要以尽可能严厉的方式

in the harshest possible way.

做出反应。

But I certainly worry

但我确实很担心，

when I see the Israeli defense minister

当我看到以色列国防部长

refer to the attackers as inhuman animals

将袭击者称为不人道动物

and announce a siege on the entirety of Gaza,

并宣布围困整个加沙地区，

which means no food, no electricity, no water.

这意味着没有食物、 没有电、没有水。

And this is a territory that already has 50 percent poverty,

这个地区的贫困率 已经达到50％，

already has fewer than half of its population

只有不到一半的人口

with access to clean water.

能够获得清洁用水。

I worry about what that is going to mean

从长远来看，我担心

for the Palestinian people

这对巴勒斯坦人民

as well as for Israel long-term.

和以色列意味着什么。

You know, I think it was Golda Meir who says,

你知道，正如戈尔达·梅尔 (Golda Meir)所说：

"I won't hate you for killing our children.

“我不会因为你杀了 我们的孩子而恨你。

I will hate you for making me kill your children."

我恨你因为你让我 不得不杀了你的孩子。”

Ultimately, the Israeli population is most threatened

归根结底，哈马斯恐怖分子的袭击 令以色列解锁并蜕变成的事物

by what the terrorists of Hamas unleash from Israel.

对以色列本身的威胁更大。

HW: So do you think that was part of the incentive for Hamas in doing this?

那么你认为这是哈马斯这样做的 部分动机吗？

Because surely they knew that the response would be swift.

因为他们肯定 知道反应会很快。

And surely they knew that the world would rally around such atrocities.

当然，他们知道世界会 团结起来反对这种暴行。

So what do you think was their motivation,

那么你认为他们的动机是什么，

and do you think that they underestimated what might happen?

以及你认为他们 低估了可能发生的事情吗？

IB: Oh, I don't think they underestimated what might happen.

哦，我认为他们并没有 低估可能发生的事情。

But it's a compelling question.

但这是一个很难回答的问题。

It's really hard to put yourself in the mindset

很难设身处地去想象

of someone like a Hamas leader.

哈马斯领导者这样的人的思想。

But, you know,

但是，你知道，就在几个月前，

I had to do that just a few months ago

当叶夫根尼·普里戈津带着 瓦格纳部队向莫斯科进发时，

when Yevgeny Prigozhin was marching with his Wagner forces on Moscow.

我不得不这样做。

And people were asking me, "What is going through this guy's mind?"

然后人们问我： “这家伙在想什么？”

Because it's clear he's going to get killed, right?

因为很明显 他会被杀的，对吧？

I mean, you turn against the Kremlin and Putin,

我的意思是， 你反对克里姆林宫和普京，

you’re not walking away from that.

你肯定难逃一死。

And when he cut the “deal”

当他达成了 “协议”，

and everyone said, "Oh you know, he cut a deal" --

所有人都说： “哦你看，他达成了协议”时 ——

He's dead man walking.

他的死期也不远了。

Like, literally, that was the reality.

确实就是这样。

And as soon as the Hamas leaders decided

而且，一旦哈马斯领导人决定

that they were going to commit these atrocities

要对以色列平民

against Israeli civilians,

犯下这些暴行，

they're dead.

他们就死定了。

There is no future for these people.

这些人没有未来。

So I think there are two different things going on.

所以我认为有两件 不同的事情正在发生。

The first, and this is analogous to Prigozhin,

首先，这与普里戈津的 的情况相似之处在于，

is that Hamas felt themselves

哈马斯感觉到他们

in an increasingly untenable environment,

处在一个越来越不稳定的环境中，

that they were losing their support in the region.

他们正在失去在该地区的支持，

And even the Saudis were about to normalize

甚至沙特人也即将实现

their relationship with Israel.

与以色列的关系正常化。

They had no influence in ability to get anything done,

他们没有能力影响 事情的进程，

no leverage with the Israeli government,

面对以色列政府没有任何筹码，

which was only becoming harder and harder lined against them.

而以色列政府只会 越来越强硬地对付他们。

And in that regard,

在这方面，

they were increasingly in a corner.

他们越来越陷入困境。

Their options were increasingly all bad.

他们的选择也越来越糟糕。

And, you know, we know

而且，你知道，我们都知道，

that people that find themselves only with horrible options

那些发现自己 只有糟糕选择的人

frequently do irrational things.

经常会做一些非理性的事情。

And I would not underestimate that

所以我不会低估

in driving the decision of Hamas to take that action.

推动哈马斯决定采取这一行动 的非理性因素。

It's kind of like why would 77 percent of a Gaza population

这有点像为什么在上次选举中， （也就是不久前）

in the last elections they had, which was some time ago,

77％的加沙人口，

why would they vote for an organization like Hamas?

他们为什么要投票给 像哈马斯这样的组织？

Well, I mean, they wouldn't if they had economic opportunities.

好吧，我是说，如果他们有 发展经贸的机会，他们就不会。

They wouldn't, if they had education,

如果他们受过教育， 他们就不会。

they wouldn't if they could come and go from Gaza as they please.

如果他们能随心所欲地 进出加沙，他们就不会。

But the worse the situation gets,

但是情况越糟，

the more they are willing to vote for an organization

他们就越愿意投票给一个

that is prepared to burn it all down.

准备把所有东西都毁掉的组织。

And by the way,

顺便说一句，

there's a lesson in that,

这其中有一个教训，

even for those of us in very wealthy,

即使对于我们这些生活在非常富有、

very stable countries.

非常稳定的国家的人来说也是如此。

So I think that's one set of motivations,

因此，我认为这是一组动机，

but another set of motivations certainly

但另一组动机

is an ideological effort of Hamas

无疑是哈马斯 在意识形态方面的努力

to insert themselves as more dominant in the conversation,

企图在对话中 占据更大的主导地位，

to radicalize the Israeli population,

刺激以色列民众更加激进，

to undermine the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

以破坏西岸的 巴勒斯坦权力机构。

Because if this fight,

因为如果这场战斗

you know, gets the Israelis

让以色列人

to kill huge numbers of Palestinian civilians,

杀害了大量的 巴勒斯坦平民

and by the way, Hamas will facilitate that, right?

顺便说一句，哈马斯 会为此提供便利，对吧？

I mean, Hamas is absolutely going to be engaged in operations, you know,

我是说，哈马斯绝对会在居民区

in residential buildings.

进行巷战。

They do that intentionally.

他们是故意这样做的。

They're not going to make it easy for Israel to take them out.

它们不会让以色列 轻易地将他们赶出去。

They want to make it bloody.

他们想把它搞得血腥。

They want to paint the Israelis as just as bad as Hamas, if not worse.

他们想把以色列人描绘成和哈马斯 一样糟糕，甚至更糟。

They will take human shields.

他们会以平民为肉盾。

The IDF, the Israeli Defense Forces,

IDF，即以色列国防军，

usually gives warnings about when they're about to attack a building.

通常会在袭击建筑物之前发出警告。

They ask the civilians to leave.

他们要求平民离开。

Well, Hamas tells those civilians that that's disinformation.

哈马斯告诉那些平民 那是虚假信息。

They do everything they can

他们竭尽全力

to make the Israelis seem complicit

让以色列人显得参与了

with the kind of indiscriminate attacks against civilians

哈马斯自己对平民的

that Hamas engages in themselves.

无差别袭击。

They want to bring the Israelis to their level.

他们想把以色列拉到他们的水平。

And they also want to radicalize the Palestinians in response,

他们还想刺激 巴勒斯坦人作为回应，

not just in Gaza

不仅在加沙，

but also in the West Bank.

而且在西岸。

And they want to radicalize the Arab street.

他们想让阿拉伯民众 群情激奋，涌上街头。

They want people across the region to be, you know,

你知道，他们希望 该地区的人们对以色列

in uproar against Israel

大肆抨击，

and in solidarity with the Hamas cause

声援哈马斯事业

and in solidarity with the destruction of Israel.

声援摧毁以色列。

They want Arab leaders to be saying

他们希望阿拉伯领导人说出

what the Iranian supreme leader was posting on social media this weekend,

伊朗最高领导人本周末 在社交媒体上发布的话，

calling essentially for a genocide against the Zionist regime.

本质上是呼吁对犹太复国 主义政权进行种族灭绝。

That is ideologically what Hamas is trying to accomplish.

从意识形态方面来看， 这正是哈马斯想要实现的目标。

And again, Israel must do everything in its power

再说一遍， 以色列必须尽其所能，

not to allow Hamas to drag them there.

不允许哈马斯将他们拉入泥潭。

HW: It’s interesting, in your talk in Vancouver this year at TED2023,

有趣的是，在你今年温哥华的 TED2023演讲中，

you were talking about the rise of different orders,

你谈到不同秩序的兴起，

and I do just get the sense that everything is connected.

我确实感觉到 一切都是相互关联的。

You have Russia, you have Ukraine, you have Iran.

比如说俄罗斯， 乌克兰，还有伊朗。

There are these ideological battles that are now becoming real-world wars.

这些意识形态之争 正在变成现实世界的战争。

And so I wonder if you can, especially the mention of Iran,

因此，想请你来讲讲， 尤其是提及伊朗，

I don't think it's confirmed yet, the intervention of Iran in this,

我认为伊朗是否干预此事， 还没有得到证实，

but certainly the "Journal" was reporting that Iran had been involved,

但是《华尔街日报》的报道 肯定地说伊朗参与了，

deeply involved in setting up these attacks.

且深入参与了这些袭击的策动。

What does this mean?

这意味着什么？

What does this mean for the world at large?

这对整个世界来说 意味着什么？

And then I also have a follow up question, which is,

然后我还有一个跟进问题， 那就是，

what do you think the US should do?

你认为美国应该怎么做？

IB: So let's talk in terms of the world at large and starting with Iran,

让我们从整个世界的角度 来谈，从伊朗开始，

certainly that "Wall Street Journal" piece over the weekend

当然，《华尔街日报》 周末的那篇文章

drove an enormous amount of news.

携带了大量新闻。

It was saying, hey, the Iranians basically planned this.

它在说，嘿， 伊朗人几乎就是计划好的。

I will tell you, that was a very lightly sourced piece, relying on Hamas.

我要告诉你，那是一篇信息来源 非常单一的文章，依赖哈马斯。

And I would not have gone to print with that

如果我是《华尔街日报》方的话，

if I had been "The Journal."

不会将那篇文章刊发。

HW: Yeah, the US has not confirmed that at all.

是的，美国根本没有 证实这一点。

IB: In fact, the US has actually said

事实上，美国实际上已经说过，

that there is not hard evidence at this point

目前没有确凿的证据

that fingers Iran as having directly orchestrated

指责伊朗直接策划

or ordered these attacks.

或下令发动这些袭击。

Now, let's be very clear.

现在，让我们来把话说清楚。

The Iranians have publicly

伊朗人公开表示

expressed strongest possible support for Hamas.

尽可能强烈地 支持哈马斯。

The Iranians have historically funded

伊朗人历来 直接为哈马斯提供资金

and provided military support directly for Hamas.

和军事支持。

So they clearly are not innocents in this.

因此，在这方面他们 显然不是无辜的。

And I would be surprised to learn

如果说伊朗人完全不知道 会发生这种情况，

that the Iranians had no idea that this was going to happen.

我会感到惊讶。

I suspect that they were aware.

我怀疑他们知道。

But awareness and orchestration are two very different things.

但是知道内情和 组织实施是两回事。

Now, since the attacks occurred,

现在，自袭击发生以来，

Hezbollah, which of course, is also very much aligned with Iran

真主党， 当然也与伊朗在同一阵线，

and gets a lot of direct military support and training from the Iranians,

得到了伊朗人的 大量直接军事支持和训练，

they have, I say only, but in this context, is only,

我只说， 在这种情况下，

they've only engaged in some missile strikes,

他们 对以色列军队进行了 一些导弹袭击，

some rocket strikes against an Israeli military --

一些火箭弹袭击 ——

not base, but military outpost.

不是基地，而是军事前哨站。

A soldier’s outpost.

士兵的前哨站。

And the Israelis, in response,

作为回应，以色列人

immediately engaged in strikes back against Hezbollah.

立即对真主党进行了反击。

That's it.

仅此而已。

If the Iranians were behind this and wanted to be seen as behind this,

如果伊朗人是幕后黑手 并想被视为是幕后黑手，

Hezbollah would be involved in these attacks.

那么真主党就会参与 这些袭击。

They are far more capable than Hamas.

他们的能力比哈马斯强得多。

The Iranians have claimed that they have had no role,

伊朗人声称 他们没有扮演任何角色，

that this was an autonomous Hamas operation.

这是哈马斯的自主行动。

And indeed, Iran has been doing better geopolitically of late.

的确，伊朗最近在地缘政治上 表现得比以前好了。

The Chinese facilitated a breakthrough

中国促成了

in Iranian relations with the Saudis.

伊朗与沙特关系的破冰。

The Iranians have engaged with the United States,

伊朗人已经在与美国接触，

and six billion dollars of Iranian assets are set to be unfrozen,

60亿美元的伊朗资产 将被解冻，

have not been unfrozen yet, but are set to be transferred to Iran.

尚未解冻， 但将被转移到伊朗。

Five American civilians that were held unjustly

在伊朗监狱中 被不公正地扣为人质的

as hostages in Iranian jails have been released

五名美国平民已获释

and sent to the United States.

并被送往美国。

The Iranians have reduced the top level of uranium enrichment

伊朗人减少了最高水平的铀浓缩

and some of their stockpiles, allowing inspectors in.

和部分库存， 允许检查人员进入。

Now, this is not a return to the Iranian nuclear deal, the JCPOA,

这不是回归伊朗核协议，即JCPOA，

but certainly on the basis of all of that

但可以肯定的是， 基于所有这些

and even some high-level discussion

甚至一些高层讨论，

that the Iranians might be willing to engage directly

伊朗人可能 愿意 通过阿曼的斡旋

with the United States diplomatically through the good offices of Oman,

直接与美国进行外交接触，

none of that seems aligned at all

这一切似乎都与

with the Iranians pulling the trigger on an attack against Israel

伊朗人扣动对以色列的 袭击的扳机完全不一致，

that would almost certainly lead to massive retaliation

一旦以色列人发现了这一点

once the Israelis found that out.

几乎肯定会 导致大规模的报复。

So I am sitting here saying

因此，我坐在这里说，

I would be surprised,

我会感到惊讶，

not with a high level of confidence,

对此没有多少信心，

and, you know, the Iranian regime has a very old supreme leader

而且你知道，伊朗政权 有一位非常老的最高领导人，

who is also dealing with internal instability

他也在处理内部不稳定

and a transition that is coming.

和即将到来的权利过渡问题。

So never say never.

所以永远不要说永远。

But I would be quite surprised if we found out

但是，如果我们发现伊朗人

that the Iranians directly ordered this.

直接授命了这次事件， 我会感到非常惊讶。

Now, it is useful

现在，美国 既派出一支舰队

that the United States has both sent a fleet

离开以色列海岸

off of the Israeli coast to show stalwart support

以表示坚定的支持，

and will be providing a level of at least military coordination

又将提供至少一定程度 的军事协调

and operational intelligence, may well do much more than that.

和作战情报，这很有用， 而且可能远不止于此。

We can get to that when we talk about the United States,

我们可以在谈论到 美国时再细聊这些，

but is also very publicly saying

但也可以非常公开地说：

"We do not yet have any evidence that the Iranians are involved."

“我们还没有任何证据 表明伊朗人参与其中。”

In other words, the message from the United States is very clear:

换句话说，来自 美国的信息非常明确：

do not expand this war into Iran,

不要将这场战争扩大到伊朗，

because the consequences of that are 150-dollar crude at a minimum.

因为其后果至少是 原油价格涨到150美元，

The consequences of that is the world goes back into global recession.

其后果是世界又回到了 全球衰退之中。

The consequences of that are conflagration in the region.

其后果是该地区战火连天。

And I think, I do believe

而且我认为，我确实相信

that the Israeli government is quite aligned with the United States

以色列政府与美国的立场

in not wanting to go there.

非常一致，不想到这一步。

HW: I keep coming back to the human cost of this

我一直想说回这个事件 造成的人道损失，

because the reality is that people are suffering,

因为现实情况是， 人们在遭受苦难，

people are being killed,

有人被杀害，

and many more people are likely to be killed.

还有更多的人 可能被杀害。

If, indeed Hamas has kind of hijacked this story

如果哈马斯确实 用极端主义行动

with extremist action,

劫持了事件走向，

I wonder what you see from the Palestinian side

我想知道你从 巴勒斯坦方面看到了什么，

of kind of a more moderate type of push towards trying to get understanding,

那就是更温和的推动力 以争取被世界理解，

trying to get peace in this nation

努力在这个国家实现和平，

or trying to get peace in this area.

或努力在这一地区实现和平。

IB: I mean, that's the most tragic piece of this,

我的意思是，这是其中 最悲惨的部分，

is the ability of Hamas to successfully hijack big pieces

是哈马斯能够成功地 劫持巴勒斯坦人政治派别的

of the political spectrum for the Palestinians.

很大一部分因素。

I mean, there are so many people in the West right now

我的意思是， 现在西方有太多人

that view the Palestinians as equivalent to Hamas,

认为巴勒斯坦人 等同于哈马斯，

and nothing could be further from the truth.

事实并非如此。

But that reality,

但是这种现实，

that perception is going to make life so much worse

这种看法将使 其中受难最深重的人们

for the people that have suffered the most.

境遇更加惨痛。

They are the powerless.

他们是无能为力的。

The Palestinians are the stateless.

巴勒斯坦人是无国籍者。

They lack resources.

他们缺乏资源。

They lack a proper military.

他们缺乏一支正规的军队。

They lack the capacity to defend their own territory

他们缺乏保卫自己领土

and to defend themselves.

和自卫的能力。

And we've already seen,

而且，我们已经看到，

even over this most tragic weekend for Israel,

即使在这个对以色列来说 最悲惨的周末，

that the number of deaths and casualties for the Palestinians

巴勒斯坦人的 死亡 和伤亡人数

are almost as much as they were for the Israelis.

几乎与以色列人一样多。

And when you go back over the past 20 years,

当你回顾 过去的20年中，

who've had the most deaths,

谁的死亡人数最多，

who've had the most casualties,

谁的伤亡人数最多，

consistently, it's been the Palestinians.

一直是巴勒斯坦人。

Who's going to suffer the most going forward?

未来谁将遭受 最大的痛苦？

Consistently, it will be the Palestinians.

始终是巴勒斯坦人。

Who suffered the most from the US war on terror?

谁在美国的反恐战争中 遭受的损失最大？

It was, of course, the Iraqis and all of the tribes in Afghanistan.

当然，是伊拉克人和 阿富汗的所有部落。

This should not surprise anyone, but it is the unfortunate reality

这不应该让任何人感到惊讶， 但却是很不幸的事实。

that of course, Hamas leadership will be destroyed.

当然，哈马斯的领导层会被摧毁。

But the biggest damage that they will have done

但所造成的最大伤害

would have been to their own people.

将是他们自己的人民来承担。

To the Palestinian people,

对巴勒斯坦人民来说，

who now will face almost unfathomable deprivation.

他们现在将面临 几乎深不可测的困苦。

And there’s very little that the rest of the world is going to do about it.

而且世界其他国家 对此几乎无能为力。

HW: Do you see a movement within Palestine to step up if Hamas is done?

如果哈马斯下台，你认为 巴勒斯坦内部会有运动崛起吗？

IB: I certainly believe

我当然相信，

that the Palestinian Authority will try to see this

巴勒斯坦权力机构 会努力将此视为

as an opportunity to push for more international engagement

推动该地区 更多参与国际社会

from the region

的机会，

to take seriously a cessation of illegal Israeli settlements

认真对待 停止以色列

in the West Bank,

在西岸的非法定居点，

a rolling back of the territory that is presently occupied

撤回目前 被占领的领土，

and a revival of peace talks

恢复和谈，

that would bring about a two-state solution

这将有可能达成两国方案，

where the Palestinians, less land

在这种解决方案中， 巴勒斯坦人的土地

than perhaps they would have gotten in the days of, you know,

可能少于

Arafat and Rabin, but nonetheless,

阿拉法特和拉宾时代 他们可能获得的土地，

something that feels sustainable,

但是，尽管如此， 是一个感觉可持续发展的国家，

a country that one might be able to raise children with a sense of hope.

一个人们也许能够带着希望感 抚养孩子的国家。

There is no one in the occupied territories of Palestine

今天， 在巴勒斯坦被占领土上，

that could say that for themselves for their children today.

没有人能说这里 适合自己和自己的孩子。

So I think that is the hope.

所以我认为这就是希望。

But, you know, clearly right now is not the time for that.

但是，现在显然 不是这样做的时机。

Not because we don't want it,

不是因为我们不想要它，

but because events will overtake it immediately

而是因为事态会立即越过它，

and have already overtaken.

并且已经越过了。

Now, the hope is that the violence that will spread in the West Bank

现在，人们希望能够遏制

can be contained.

将在西岸蔓延的暴力。

That we do not see a war in Gaza become a war in the West Bank,

我们不认为加沙的战争 会变成西岸的战争，

that we do not see an occupation of Gaza become an occupation of the West Bank.

我们不认为占领加沙 会变成对西岸的占领。

That is, I think, the priority now.

我认为，这是现在的当务之急。

You have to know sometimes

有时候你必须知道

when you actually have a trajectory for peace,

什么时候真的有 向和平发展的路径，

and when you have to do your best to avoid war expanding.

什么时候必须尽最大努力 避免战争扩大。

We do not have a trajectory for peace right now.

我们现在没有实现和平的路径。

We are at war.

我们处于战争状态。

There were plenty of opportunities over the past years

在过去的几年中， 有很多机会

to take off ramps,

可以走下战乱的坡道，

to engage more seriously.

更认真地参与和谈，

They were ignored.

但机会被忽略了。

And it is precisely that reality

正是这种现实

that has brought us to a point where we now are on defense,

使我们达到了现在 处于被动状态的地步 ，

where we are hoping that this does not get much, much worse.

我们希望情况 不会变得更糟。

That is the story of the Middle East today.

这就是当今中东地区的情况。

HW: Do you think Israel will annex Gaza?

你认为以色列会吞并加沙吗？

IB: I think the Israelis don't know.

我想以色列人不知道。

Again, don't underestimate the shock,

再说一遍，不要低估 当今所有以色列人

the emotional shock

所面临的震惊

that all of the Israelis are facing today.

和情感冲击。

They are not making long-term strategic decisions right now.

他们现在没有 做出长期的战略决策。

They are making immediate, short-term decisions.

他们所做的是 即时反应的短期决定。

What can we do to make sure the country is still defended,

我们能做些什么来 确保国家安全，

our borders are still secure,

确保我们的边境仍然安全，

that terrorists are not, you know,

确保恐怖分子

right now running around in our midst, planning further atrocities?

不会仍然在我们中间穿梭自如， 策划进一步的暴行。

That is priority number one.

这是第一要务。

And very close to it

而且当务之急是

is getting those hostages back and safe

让那些人质安全地回来，

and I'd say unharmed.

我想说的是安然无损。

They've already experienced a lot of harm.

他们已经遭受了很多伤害。

That's beyond the realm of possibility right now.

现在就这已经超出了 可能实现的范围。

There will be, in the coming weeks, and there's also some shock and awe,

在接下来的几周内，会有一些 令人震惊和敬畏的事情发生，

you know, Netanyahu immediately posting,

你知道，内塔尼亚胡立即发帖说，

some buildings getting demolished in Gaza

加沙的一些建筑物被摧毁，

and saying we are, you know, at war.

并说我们处于战争状态。

That is, I mean, they’ve engaged in these sorts of airstrikes before,

也就是说，他们以前 卷入过这样的空袭，

and we already know of families that have gotten killed,

我们已经知道有家庭被杀害， 在某些情况下是整个家庭遇害。

entire families in some cases of nine, of 13 people, lots of children,

有的家庭成员多达9人， 13个人，其中有很多孩子，

this sort of thing.

诸如此类的事情。

We will see that.

我们会看到的。

But in terms of what's the nature of the long-term objectives,

但是，就什么样的 长期目标，

the occupation,

占领的本质而言，

the Israelis are not close to making that decision.

以色列人还远未作出决定。

And I also think that other countries that Israel trusts and Israel needs

而且我还认为， 以色列信任和需要的其他国家，

will have some ability to have influence over Israel

将有一定的能力 在做出这一决定方面

in making that decision.

对以色列施加影响。

I'm not just talking about the US now.

我现在不只是是说美国。

I'm also talking about countries in the region

我也意指该地区的

that Israel would like to maintain relations with.

以色列希望与 之保持关系的国家。

So there needs to be very active multilateral diplomacy behind the scenes,

因此，在接下来的几天和几周内，

quietly, high-level, with the Israeli government

国际社会需要与以色列政府 悄悄地进行高级别的

in the coming days and weeks.

非常积极的幕后多边外交活动。

HW: I want to talk a little bit about the media coverage of the attacks

我想谈谈媒体 对袭击事件的报道

and of what is happening right now.

以及目前正在发生的事情。

A lot of the people who had written in with questions for you

许多写信给你提问的人

are really confused by the rhetoric that they're seeing.

都对他们所看到的言论 感到非常困惑。

They're not sure what to trust, who to trust, what to believe.

他们不确定该信任什么， 该信任谁，该相信什么。

And I want to get your sense, you're a very online person.

你是一个消息灵通的人， 我想知道你是怎么想的

And so what is your take on this,

以及你对此有何看法，

and how can we think about how to understand what's happening,

我们怎样才能思考 如何理解正在发生的事情，

especially in such a kind of, real-time situation?

尤其是在这种瞬息万变的情况下？

IB: Well, first of all, there's always the fog of war.

首先，战争的迷雾一直存在。

There's always disinformation from both sides

总是有来自双方的虚假信息

actively trying to promote a narrative

积极试图宣传一种

that is more effective for them,

对他们更有效、

that they're doing better than they otherwise are,

比现实情况更好的论调，

and that the other side is engaged in greater atrocities

以及对方犯下了

than they actually are.

比实际情况更严重的暴行。

You see lots of that, lots of immediately fake videos putting out

你会看到很多， 很多一眼假的视频

of buildings that are being destroyed,

展示正在被摧毁的建筑物、

people that are being killed, you know,

人们被杀害，你知道，

sort of, people that are providing, you know, sort of, support for,

人们正在提供的内容， 支持各种论调，

sort of, "kill all the Jews" and "kill all the Palestinians"

例如“杀掉所有犹太人” 以及“杀掉所有巴勒斯坦人”

that actually came from previous conflicts,

那些其实来自于过往的争端，

not from the present one.

而不是来自现在的冲突。

There's plenty of that.

有很多这种内容。

This time around,

这一次，

there's also so much more hatred.

还有更多的仇恨相关信息。

There's, on social media especially,

特别是在社交媒体上，

there's so much more willingness to promote, algorithmically,

从算法上讲， 人们更愿意宣传

opinions that you would never hear in your family,

你在家庭中永远不会听到的观点，

that you would never hear in your community, in your school,

在社区、学校里你永远不会 听到这些观点，

but it's being bombarded.

但现在却遭到了信息轰炸。

And this is very different from the so-called mainstream media,

这与所谓的主流媒体截然不同，

whether it's the BBC or the Deutsche Welle

无论是英国广播公司、德国之声，

or it's Fox News or CNN.

还是福克斯新闻 或美国有线电视新闻网。

No, no.

不，不。

Social media has become a far more greatly polarized and hate-filled space.

社交媒体已成为一个 两极分化和充满仇恨的空间。

I've received at least 30 death threats

在过去的 48 小时里，

over the last 48 hours

我已经收到了至少 30 次

from complete randos.

完全随机的死亡威胁。

A few people that I actually could track if I really needed to,

如果我真的需要的话， 我实际上可以追踪几个人，

most anonymous accounts.

大多数是匿名账户。

But clearly people that are writing me directly,

但是很明显， 那些直接给我写信的人，

some of whom are really, really pro-Israel,

其中一些人 确实非常亲以色列，

some of whom are really, really pro-Palestine

有些人确实非常亲巴勒斯坦，

and some of whom are probably just trolling for the lolz,

有些人可能 只是在搞笑，

as they like to say.

正如他们 喜欢说的那样。

It is increasingly very hard to navigate this space

在这个网络空间游走 而不感到愤怒和精神错乱

without becoming incensed and deranged.

变得越来越困难。

Having said that,

话虽如此，

as much as I find Twitter/X a space

尽管我发现Twitter/X

antithetical to civil society,

是一个与公民社会道德 背道而驰的空间，

I also know, as someone who does analysis,

但我也知道， 作为一个职业分析师，

that some of the best real-time information from sources on the ground

一些来自事发当地的 最佳实时信息

is being passed through on X and is not found in other places.

是在X上传递的， 而在其他地方却找不到。

It will not come through in mainstream media.

它不会在主流媒体上播出。

So for the average person,

因此，对于普通人来说，

you need to spend a lot more time filtering and figuring out where to go

你需要花更多的时间 进行筛选，弄清楚该去哪里

and who to follow.

以及该关注谁。

But it still is the one place that you can go.

但它仍然 是你可以去的地方。

And you know, it really does,

而且你知道，确实如此，

the whole thing profoundly worries me

整件事让我深感担忧，

because when you're in an environment

因为当你处在一个

that you can no longer know what is truth,

无法再知道什么是真相，

what is real information,

什么是真实信息的环境中时，

it is really hard to maintain a society that is human.

很难维持 一个人性化的社会。

When you have people that are saying

当有人说

that all Israelis are X and all Palestinians are Y,

所有以色列人都是X， 所有巴勒斯坦人都是Y，

and that is where much of social media,

而这正是大部分社交媒体，

I mean, a strong majority of social media is there right now,

我的意思是，现在绝大多数 社交媒体都这样，

you cannot have dialogue, you cannot have solutions,

你无法进行对话， 你无法找到解决方案，

and you can very easily tilt into war,

你可以很容易地转向战争，

into radicalism, into fascism.

转向激进主义、法西斯主义。

This is something we all need to be guarded against.

这是我们所有人 都需要防范的事情。

And I truly believe

而且我真的相信，

that the social media companies need to be regulated on this.

需要就此对社交 媒体公司进行监管。

They are acting as if they have no responsibility for what's on their sites.

他们表现的像对自己网站上的内容 不承担任何责任一样。

That, you know, it's just like the phone company.

那个，你知道， 就像电话公司一样。

That if you and I, Helen, are having a conversation

如果你和我，海伦，正在谈论

about blowing something up,

炸毁某件东西，

well, we're responsible for that.

那么，我们要为此负责。

But the phone company isn't responsible, and I accept that.

但是电话公司不承担 任何责任，我接受这一点。

But, Helen, if you and I are having a conversation about blowing something up

但是，海伦，如果 你我正在谈论炸毁什么，

and then the phone company takes that conversation,

然后电话公司 接受了那次谈话，

identifies everyone else

确定了其他所有

that might be interested in blowing something up or has considered it,

可能有兴趣炸毁某件东西 或已经考虑过的人，

and takes that conversation and promotes it to them,

然后接受谈话并向他们推广，

then you, the phone company, are responsible, you are liable,

那么你，电话公司有责任， 你应该对此负责。

you should be taken down.

你应该被关闭。

And we are in a war right now,

而且我们现在正处于战争之中，

and the social media companies are actively fanning the flames.

社交媒体公司 正在积极煽动火焰。

They are spraying fuel on the flames, and they’re doing it globally.

他们在火上浇油， 而且他们正在全球范围内这样做。

Globally, so much so that countries like China that are authoritarian

在全球范围内，如此之多， 以至于像中国这样专制

and control their media space

并控制其媒体空间的国家

actually have sort of an intrinsic political stability advantage

实际上在 “信息战”中

in "information warfare" over open societies

比本应最具弹性的开放社会

that should be the most resilient.

具有某种内在的 政治稳定优势。

That’s crazy, and we can’t keep going down that path.

太疯狂了，我们不能这条路走到黑。

HW: The ironies are writ large.

那真的是很讽刺。

OK, so we are coming on our time,

好吧，我们所剩时间不多，

but I wonder if you can leave us with a sense

趁结束之前，可否谈一谈

of what should we be watching for next?

接下来我们应该注意什么？

What should we be looking for?

我们应该关注什么？

IB: First, we need to look for Lebanon.

首先，我们需要关注黎巴嫩。

This is the issue of Hezbollah,

这就是真主党的问题，

which so far has been the dog that has not barked.

到目前为止，真主党可看做 是一直没有吠叫的狗。

Is that going to continue?

这种情况还会持续下去吗？

It is the place that you are most likely to see tipping point escalation

这是最有可能看到 局势升级的临界点。

if it were to occur.

如果真的发生的话。

And you have Hezbollah operatives of many different stripes.

而且还有许多不同派别的 真主党特工，

They are loosely organized,

他们组织松散，

they're well-trained.

训练有素。

But that doesn't mean that they're all following, you know,

但这并不 意味着他们都在听从

marching orders from one direct leader.

一位直接领导人的命令。

The potential that this could --

这种可能性 ——

you could see escalation with some Israeli farmers getting killed,

一些以色列农民被杀害， 导致局势升级，

and then the Israelis respond.

然后以色列人做出回应。

And before you know it, you're in a much bigger firefight.

在不知不觉中， 交火规模大增。

Lebanon's involved, Hezbollah is involved, and then it knocks on to Iran.

黎巴嫩参与其中，真主党参与其中， 然后伊朗卷入战火。

That is sort of the gateway drug in the Middle East

这有点像是中东的入门毒品，

even if nobody wants that fight.

即使没人想要这场斗争。

That's one thing to watch.

这是值得关注的一个方面。

Second thing to watch, of course,

当然，迫在眉睫的第二件事是

imminently is what happens with these hostages.

这些人质的命运如何。

Do the Israelis get them back?

以色列人能把他们救回来吗？

Historically, that has always been the top priority,

从历史上看， 这一直是当务之急，

and it is today.

今天也是如此。

But Hamas has control over that.

但是哈马斯可以控制这一点。

And, you know, if the Israelis are not prepared to negotiate with Hamas

而且，你知道，如果以色列人不 准备与哈马斯谈判

to release militants presently in Israel prisons,

释放目前在以色列监狱中的武装分子，

and it's very hard for me to imagine in today's environment

而且我很难想象 在当今的环境中

they would be willing to do that,

他们会愿意这样做，

well, how exactly do they get them back

那么，他们究竟如何让他们回来

and how many of them can they actually free?

以及他们实际上能释放多少人？

Again, you know, the Israelis and the Americans have far,

再说一遍，你知道， 以色列 人和美国人

far better tradecraft on the ability to get these hostages out

在解救这些人质方面的能力

than Hamas have to take them.

比哈马斯抢劫人质要强太多。

But Hamas has exceeded expectations over the past 48 hours,

但是在过去的48小时里， 哈马斯d额表现超出了预期，

and I would worry very much about that.

我对此非常担心。

That would be the second thing I'd watch most closely right now.

那将是我现在最密切关注的第二件事。

And then finally, the nature of the Israeli government itself.

最后是以色列政府 本身的性质。

Do we have success in putting together a unified national emergency government,

他们在组建统一的国家紧急政府 方面是否取得了成功，

in which case we will have more stability in governance

如果成功的情况下，

and decision making that comes from Israel

以色列的治理和决策 将会更有稳定性，

and also greater willingness to consider longer-term engagement

也更愿意考虑 与这些巴勒斯坦人，

with those Palestinians, particularly in the West Bank,

特别是西岸的巴勒斯坦人 进行长期接触，

to start, at least,

至少是开一个头，

that might be looking for a more constructive path

在他们重返议程之后，

now that they are back on the agenda.

来寻找更具建设性的道路。

I don't have a high amount of optimism that that's going to happen.

我对这种情况的发生可能性并不乐观。

But you asked me for something hopeful, that would be something hopeful.

但是你要我分享有什么希望， 这就是我的希望。

HW: Ian Bremmer, we are so grateful for your time and for your insight.

伊恩·布雷默(Ian Bremmer)， 非常感谢你宝贵的时间和见解。

Thank you so much for joining us, stay well.

也非常感谢各位的收看，祝好。

IB: My pleasure Helen.

不客气，海伦（Helen）。