Bill Gates: The innovations we need to avoid a climate disaster | TED Countdown

Transcriber:

校对人员: Shengmin Huang

布鲁诺·吉桑尼：大家好。

比尔·盖茨曾在气候变化问题上 称自己是个不完美的信使，

Bruno Giussani: Hello.

Bill Gates calls himself an imperfect messenger on climate

因为他有着高碳足迹和高碳生活方式。

because of his high carbon footprint and lifestyle.

然而，他最近著作的一本书

However, he has just made a major contribution to our thinking

引发了很多我们在 面对气候变化时的思考，

此书谈及经济和社会的去碳化。

about confronting climate change via a book,

a book about decarbonising our economy and society.

这是一本乐观的“志在必得”类书籍，

重点关注于科技方面的解决方案。

It's an optimistic "can-do" kind of book

他讨论了我们现有的技术， 例如风能和太阳能；

with a strong focus on technological solutions.

He discusses the things we have, such as wind and solar power,

同时也讨论了一些 亟待我们开发的技术，

例如无碳水泥或无碳钢，

the things we need to develop,

以及长期的能源储存。

such as carbon-free cement or carbon-free steel,

他还谈论了与其相关的经济意义，

and long-term energy storage.

并且引入了绿色溢价的概念。

And he talks about the economics of it all,

我对本书主旨的简单概括是：

introducing the concept of green premium.

The gist of the book, and really I'm simplifying here a lot,

虽然应对气候变化极其困难，

is that fighting climate change is going to be hard,

但是，我们是可以做到的。

是有这么一条道路通往 干净环保且富足的未来。

but it's possible, we can do it.

There is a pathway to a clean and prosperous future for all.

那么我们就和本书作者 展开聊聊这些相关内容。

比尔·盖茨，欢迎再次来到 TED。

So we want to unpack some of that with the author of the book.

比尔·盖茨：谢谢。

吉桑尼：比尔，我们 从你的起点开始聊：

Bill Gates, welcome back to TED.

本书的书名。

Bill Gates: Thank you.

Giussani: Bill, I would like to start where you start,

《如何避免气候灾难》 （大陆译：《气候经济与人类未来》）

当然，书名就是假设

from the title of the book.

"How to Avoid a Climate Disaster,"

如果我们现在不改变行动的话

which, of course, presumes

就离一场气候灾难不远了。

that we are heading towards a climate disaster

那么为了避免这场气候灾难

if we don't act differently.

我们必须做的最重要的一件事是什么？

So what is the single most important thing we must do

盖茨：我们排放到 大气层中的温室气体，

to avoid a climate disaster?

尤其是二氧化碳，

Gates: Well, the greenhouse gases we put into the atmosphere,

会在那里停留数千年。

所以，实际上是所有气体排放的总和

particularly CO2,

stay there for thousands of years.

And so it's really the sum of all those emissions

迫使气温越来越高，

从而造成灾难性的影响。

are forcing the temperature higher and higher,

因此我们需要将这些废气排放，

which will have disastrous effects.

也就是目前每年超过 510 亿吨的排放量

And so we have to take these emissions,

which are presently over 51 billion tons per year

全部降至零。

到那个时候，气温会停止升高

and drive those all the way down to zero.

一些灾害性天气事件就不会愈演愈烈。

And that's when the temperature will stop increasing

and the disastrous weather events won't get worse and worse.

所以这其实是一个严苛的目标。

不是降排放量减半。

而是将排放量直接降至零。

So it's pretty demanding.

It's not a 50 percent reduction.

It's all the way down to zero.

吉桑尼：510 亿这个数字太大了。

我们很难有一个具体的概念。

Giussani: Now, 51 billion is a big number.

帮我们具象化一下这个问题。

It's difficult to register, to understand.

Help us visualize the scale of the problem.

盖茨：关键是要了解不同的排放源。

许多人都知道使用天然气和煤炭发电

Gates: Well, the key is to understand all the different sources.

And people are mostly aware of the production of electricity

会是一大排放源。

这些占总排放量的 27% 。

with natural gas and coal as being a big source.

人们多多少少知道 交通工具也是排放源，

That's about 27 percent.

其中包括小客车。

And they're somewhat aware of transportation,

小客车排放量甚至占了 7% ， 而交通的总排放量占 16% 。

including passenger cars.

Passenger cars are seven percent and transportation overall is 16 percent.

人们对另外三个领域却是了解甚少。

They have far less awareness of the other three segments.

农林畜牧业，占比为 19% ;

Agriculture, which is 19 percent,

建筑物的供暖和制冷，

包括使用天然气等，占比为 7% ;

heating and cooling buildings,

然后，很遗憾的是， 制造业是占比最高的排放源，

including using natural gas, are seven percent.

And then, sadly, the biggest segment of all, manufacturing,

其中包括生产钢筋和水泥。

人们对这部分的认知最少。

including steel and cement.

但其实，对于我们来说 这却是最难解决的部分。

People are least aware of that one.

And in fact, that one is the most difficult for us to solve.

所有这些炼钢厂、水泥厂、

造纸厂还有塑料厂的规模，

The size of all the steel plants,

cement plants, paper, plastic,

它们的工业经济体量都是相当庞大的。

我们希望在 30 年间 彻底改变这一切，

the industrial economy is gigantic.

And we're asking that to be changed over in this 30-year period

但我们现在甚至不知道该如何改变。

when we don't even know how to make that change right now.

吉桑尼：我简化一下你的核心观点，

其实就是要清除所有的排放，是吗？

Giussani: So your core argument, and really, here I’m simplifying,

我们的生产方式，我们的种植方式，

is that basically we need to clean up all of that, right?

我们为了促进经济发展所做的这一切。

为了做到这一点，我们需要

The way we make things, we grow things,

we get around and power our economy.

让绿色能源的价格 和化石燃料一样便宜，

And so to do that, we need to get to a point

where green energy is as cheap as fossil fuels,

让新型材料、清洁材料 和现有的材料一样便宜。

and new materials, clean materials, are as cheap as current materials.

而你把这个叫做“消除绿色溢价”。

那首先，和我们说说什么是绿色溢价。

And you call that "eliminating the green premium."

So to start, tell us what you mean by green premium.

盖茨：好的，绿色溢价因排放源而异。

Gates: Yeah, so the green premium varies from emission sources.

购买零排放产品时，

相比传统能源产品，价格上 多出的那部分就是绿色溢价。

It's the cost to buy that product

where there's been no emissions versus the cost we have today.

比如说一辆电动车，

它的绿色溢价还算合理。

And so for an electric car,

你在购买时多付一些钱，

the green premium is reasonably modest.

在保养、加油上可以省点钱， 你得牺牲一些续航里程，

You pay a little more upfront,

you save a bit on the maintenance and gasoline, you give up some range,

你要等待较长的充电时间。

但在接下来的 15 年间，

you have a longer charging time.

由于达到了一定数量， 技术研发也完善了，

But over the next 15 years,

because the volume is there and the R and D is being done,

我们可以预估电动车会成为首选。

we can expect that the electric car will be preferable.

价格不会上升。

续航里程也将会大幅增长。

It won't cost more.

It will have a much higher range.

因此，如今大约 15% 的绿色溢价，

到时就算没有政府补贴

And so that green premium that today is about 15 percent

也会趋向于零。

is headed to be zero

这就是它的神奇所在。

even without any government subsidies.

这正是我们要在 每一个领域实施的做法。

And so that's magic.

That's exactly what we need to do for every other category.

比如说水泥产业，

我们还没有开始触及这个领域，

Now, an area like cement,

此行业现今的绿色溢价 已溢至近原价两倍。

where we haven't really gotten started yet,

the green premium today is almost double the price.

也就是说，现在的水泥 一吨卖 125 美元，

That is, you pay 125 dollars for a ton of cement today

但如果你坚持使用绿色环保水泥， 就得付近两倍的价钱。

but it would be almost double that if you insisted that it be green cement.

所以我希望到了 2050 年

And so the way I think of this is in 2050

我们能向印度提议，

“请使用绿色产品

we'll be talking to India and saying to them,

来搭建房屋。”

"Please use the green products

由于那里的气温持续升高， 他们需要使用空调。

as you're building basic shelter, you know, simple air conditioning,"

还有学生的夜间照明。

which they'll need because of the heat increase

但除非我们愿意发放补贴 或者产品的价格非常低廉，

or lighting at night for students.

And unless we're willing to subsidize it or the price is very low,

他们会说，“不行，这是 你们富裕国家引起的问题，

they'll say, "No, this is a problem that the rich countries created,

我们印度也身受其害，

所以你们自己解决吧。”

that India is suffering from

因此，只有将所有领域的绿色溢价

and you need to take care of it."

大幅度降低 95% 左右，

So only by bringing that green premium down very dramatically,

about 95 percent across all categories,

这样的对话才有意义

印度也才会做出转变。

will that conversation go well

所以关键点在于

so that India can make that shift.

美国的责任不光是要达到零排放。

And so the key thing here

is that the US's responsibility is not just to zero out its emissions.

那已经是一件很困难的事了，

但我们现在只占 15% 。

美国还要发挥创新能力，

That's a very hard thing,

but we're only 15 percent.

降低成本

Unless we, through our power of innovation,

才能让所有国家在各个领域 都改用环保产品，

make it so cheap

for all countries to switch all categories,

否则这一目标就实现不了。

所以美国真的得站出来，

then we simply aren't going to get there.

And so the US really has to step up

在接下来 30 年的每一年 都充分利用创新能力。

and use all of this innovative capacity every year for the next 30 years.

吉桑尼：那到底需要哪些改变

才可以让促成这些事情？

Giussani: What what needs to happen

还需要团结哪些行业或角色呢？

in order for these breakthroughs to actually occur?

Who are the players who need to come together?

盖茨：通常来说，创新有自己 独特的发展节奏。

Gates: Well, innovation usually happens at a pace of its own.

目前我们的截止日期设在 2050 年。

所以必须尽我们所能 加速实现这个目标。

Here we have this deadline, 2050.

我们需要提高相关领域的研发预算。

And so we have to do everything we can to accelerate it.

We need to raise the R and D budgets in these areas.

2015 年，我与奥朗德总统 以及奥巴马总统

In 2015 I organized, along with President Hollande and Obama,

在巴黎气候会谈组织了一场边会活动，

莫迪总理称其为“创新使命”，

a side event to the Paris climate talks

where what Prime Minister Modi had labeled "mission innovation"

该活动承诺在五年内将研发预算翻倍。

was a commitment to double R and D budgets over a five-year period.

其他大国也都参与了进来并对此承诺。

And all the big countries came in and made that pledge.

除此之外，我们还需要很多人才，

那些原本在其它领域耕耘的人，

Then we need lots of smart people,

鼓励他们转身投效于这个领域。

who, instead of working on other problems,

所以为他们筹集资金非常重要。

are encouraged to work on these problems.

So coming up with funding for them is very, very important.

为此我也搞了个项目， 名叫“突破能源研究人才”。

我们需要高风险资本来投资这些公司，

I'm doing some of that through what I call Breakthrough Energy Fellows.

We need high-risk capital to invest in these companies,

哪怕风险非常非常高。

even though the risks are very, very high.

所以说

现在有

And that's --

“突破能源风险投资”在做这个事

There is now --

目前还吸引着大批人才的加入。

Breakthrough Energy Ventures is one group doing that

但其实最棘手的部分是

and drawing lots of other people in.

我们得为产品找到市场，

But then the most difficult thing is

哪怕这些产品的价格 在一开始会更加昂贵。

we actually need markets for these products

这就是我所说的“催化剂项目”，

even when they start out being more expensive.

集合私人、公司和政府的购买力

And that's what I call Catalyst,

organizing the buying power of consumers and companies and governments

好让我们赶上学习曲线，

不断扩大规模，

so that we get on the learning curve,

我们就能在各项领域中 都达到太阳能和风能那样的成就。

get the scale going up,

like we did with solar and wind across all these categories.

既有创新技术的供给， 又有清洁产品的需求。

So it's both supply of innovation and demand for the green products.

这样的结合

可以让我们开始改变

That's the combination

这一整套实体经济的基础设施。

that can start us to make this change to the infrastructure

吉桑尼：说到这方方面面的资助，

of the entire physical economy.

现在的整体金融系统

Giussani: In terms of funding all this,

主要是在投资化石燃料的扩张，

the financial system as a whole right now

is essentially funding expansion of fossil fuels

而这也导致全球气温 提升了 3 摄氏度。

consistent with three degrees Celsius increase in global heating.

那么你对于财务委员会，

除了风险投资之外，

What do you say to the Finance Committee,

关于如何转变思想与行为 有什么话要说呢？

beyond the venture capital,

about the need to think and act differently?

盖茨：其实你看太阳能产业的利率，

和其它投资类型相比，利率不算低。

Gates: Well, if you look at the interest rates for a solar field

versus any other type of investments, it's not lower.

我们都知道，钱的可替代性很高。

资金可以流动到各个不同的项目中。

You know, money is very fungible.

It's going to, you know, different projects.

但是，目前气候相关的项目 还没有什么特殊待遇。

But, there's no, sort of, special rate for climate-related projects.

我们知道，政府可以通过

税收鼓励这类政策去改善这些。

Now, you know, governments can decide

但不能只是通告数字。

through tax incentives to improve those things.

But you know, this is not just about reporting numbers.

通告数字是对的。

但钢铁行业提供的可是关键服务。

It's good to report numbers.

But the steel industry is providing a vital service.

汽油行业也是如此， 如今 98% 的购置汽车，

Even gasoline, for 98 percent of the cars being purchased today,

都是车主的上班代步工具。

所以，你知道，

allows people to get to their job.

仅仅撤资

And so, you know,

创造不了新的替代方案

just divestment alone is not going to be the thing

也不会降低那些成本。

that creates the new alternative

所以资金方面非常重要， 因为部署速度——

and brings the cost of that down.

So the finance side will be important because the speed of deployment --

太阳能和风能需要急剧加速发展，

超约我们现有的一切。

Solar and wind needs to be accelerated dramatically

其实，就这么说，平均来讲

我们每年部署的速度要快至 目前巅峰值的三倍才行。

beyond anything we've done today.

In fact, you know, on average,

we'll have to deploy three times as much every year as the peak year so far.

刚才那些是解决方案的一个关键。

And so those are a key part of the solution.

并不是方案的全部。

但有时候人们以为

They're not the whole solution.

But you know, people sometimes think just by putting numbers,

只要通告了数字，

就能改变一切，

disclosing numbers,

that somehow it all changes

或是撤资就能改变一切。

金融行业确实重要，

or by divesting that it all changes.

但如果没有创新的话，

他们也是巧妇难为无米之炊。

The financial sector is important,

but without the innovation,

吉桑尼：目前有大量目光集中在 2030 年达到排碳量减半这一目标上，

there's nothing they can do.

Giussani: A lot of the current focus is on cutting emissions by half by 2030

然后再考虑 2050 年达到零排放。

但是在书里，

and on the way to reaching that zero by 2050.

你说这种想法其实是危险的，

And in the book,

我们应该把重点放在 2050 年上。

you write that there is danger in that kind of thinking,

你能就此展开说一下吗？

that we should keep our main focus on 2050.

盖茨：现在能够衡量 我们成果的唯一标准

Can you explain that?

就是绿色溢价，

Gates: Well, the only real measure of how well we’re doing

因为这决定了

印度和其他发展中国家

is the green premium,

because that's what determines

whether India and other developing countries

是否会在 2050 年选择 走上零排放这条路。

will choose to use the zero emission approach in 2050.

这个想法是——

如果你只关注短期的减排，

The idea, you know --

你可能会觉得，真不错，

If you're focusing on short-term reductions,

我们在天然气厂投了几十亿美元。

then you could say, oh, it's fantastic,

we just put billions of dollars into natural-gas plants.

而忽略了还有很多泄漏的气体

其实没有被认真统计在内，

And even ignoring that there's a lot of leakage

就算他们所言属实，排放量减半了。

that doesn't get properly measured,

一个工厂使用寿命在 30年以上。

you know, give them full credit and say that's a 50 percent reduction.

The lifetime of that plant is greater than 30 years.

你注资了，

原以为自己能在长期内得到回报。

You financed it,

assuming you're getting value out of it over a longer period of time.

你又说，“赞美主，

我们又从用煤转变成了用天然气。”

So to say, "Hey, hallelujah,

这其实就跟零排放无关了。

we switched from coal to natural gas,"

这样的资本投入会让你功亏一篑。

that has nothing to do with reaching zero.

It sets you back because of the capital spending involved there.

所以这不是实现零排放的方法。

And so it's not a path to zero

如果人们只在废气排放这件事上取巧，

那这就不是条正确的路。

if you're just working on the easy parts of the emission.

正确的路径是，着眼于每一个排放源，

That's not a path.

The path is to take every source of emission

然后思考，

“这里的绿色溢价该怎么降低？

and say, "Oh, my goodness,

那里的绿色溢价该怎么降低？”

how am I going to get that green premium down?

否则，碳排放量减半 根本不解决实际问题。

How am I going to get that green premium down?"

Otherwise, getting to 50 percent does not stop the problems.

这非常艰难，因为要 恢复大自然原本的碳中和。

要减少的量可不小。

This is very tough because the nature is zero.

It's not just, you know, a small decrease.

吉桑尼：在降低绿色溢价这部分，

你提到了印度。

Giussani: So getting the green premium down,

要确保完成清洁能源方面的转换，

so you mentioned India.

需要印度和非洲国家的参与

To make sure that the transition, the clean transition,

这不仅仅是西方国家的事，

is also an Indian story and an African story

富裕国家是否现在就应该 启用这些昂贵的替代产品

and not only a Western story,

should rich countries adopt the expensive clean alternatives now,

从而在某种程度上降低绿色溢价，

使低收入国家更容易购买这些技术呢？

to kind of buy down the green premium

and make technology, therefore, more accessible to low-income countries?

盖茨：这是显而易见的。

我们需要从中选择出那些

Gates: Absolutely.

能够量产从而降低绿色溢价的产品。

You have to pick which product paths

with scale will become low green-premium products.

而不只是随意选择低排放的产品。

要选择价格可以降下来的那些产品。

And so you don't want to just randomly pick things that are low-emission.

比如说，现在的氢燃料电池 就还没有做到这一点。

You have to pick things that will come down.

So like, you know, so far, hydrogen fuel cells have not done that.

可能未来它们会做到。

但是太阳能、风能和锂电池，

Now they might in the future.

我们都已经看到了成本大幅度地下降。

Solar, wind and lithium-ion,

we've seen these incredible cost reductions.

所以我们要复制这个模式 并应用于其它领域，

And so we have to duplicate that for other areas,

例如海上发电、热力泵、

things like offshore wind, heat pump,

新的能源传输方式。

而且我们还需要确保电网的可靠性，

new ways of doing transmission.

尤其是在极端天气的情况下。

You know, we have to keep the electricity grid reliable,

届时，就需要蓄能、核能、

even in very bad weather conditions.

And so that's where storage or nuclear and transmission

以及能源传输的大规模扩展，

will have to be scaled up in a very significant way,

我们也已经有相关研究的开源模型了。

which we now have this open-source model to look at that.

对于购买有待观察的绿色产品，

And so the buying of green products that demand signal,

也就是我说的“催化剂”，

我们必须统筹管理大量资金，

what I call Catalyst,

数以千百亿计的美元，

we're going to have to orchestrate a lot of money,

这也是其中最花钱的层面之一，

many tens of billions of dollars for that,

that is one of the most expensive pieces

为的是让优化的产品 也能够进入其它领域，

so that the improvements come in these other areas

甚至进入我们尚未涉足的领域。

吉桑尼：很多人都认为解决气候问题

and some of them we haven't even gotten started on.

就是减少消耗，尤其是减少能源消耗。

Giussani: Many people believe actually that the climate question is mostly

a question of consuming less and particularly consuming less energy.

但是你在书中不止一次地提到过

我们需要增加能源消耗。

And in the book, you actually write several times

这是为什么？

that we need to consume more energy.

盖茨：我们现在习以为常的 基本生活条件

Why?

Gates: Well, the basic living conditions that we take for granted

本应该是全人类的标准。

但是人口还在增长。

should be made available to all humans.

And the human population is growing.

所以就需要——

你要提供住房、暖气和空调等，

And so you're going --

as you provide shelter, heating and air conditioning,

这些都是赤道附近区域所需要的，

which anywhere near the equator will be more in demand

因为会有好多天完全出不了门的情况。

since you'll have many days where you can't go outdoors at all.

所以，我们不会停止建造房屋。

我们不会停止生产食品。

So we're not going to stop making shelter.

We're not going to stop making food.

我们需要让这些过程 产生的排放都乘以零。

And so we need to be able to multiply those processes by zero.

也就是说，建造了房屋 但是不产生排放。

生产了食品，也不产生排放。

That is, you make shelter, but there's no emissions.

这才是我们最终达到零排放的路径。

You make food, but there's no emissions.

富裕的国家减少消耗某种程度上 确实能减轻零排放的压力，

That's how you get all the way down to zero.

Now, it's made somewhat easier if rich countries are consuming less,

但是这样又能走多远呢？

吉桑尼：所以，如果我在脑海里 总结一下这本书，

but how far will that go?

你的观点其实就是 如果我们能消除绿色溢价，

Giussani: So if I summarize in my head your book,

也许就会发生转变，

you are basically suggesting that if we eliminate the green premium,

成本和技术，

绿色溢价以及突破创新 都是重要驱动因素。

the transition somehow can occur,

the cost and technology,

但是，你知道，气候问题是很棘手的。

green premium and breakthroughs are the key drivers.

在社会、政治和行为上都会有影响。

But, you know, you think of climate and climate is kind of a wicked problem.

而且还需要非常高的公民参与度。

It has implications that are social, political, behavioral.

你是否过于关注技术层面 而忽略了其他层面？

It requires significant citizen involvement.

Are you focusing too much on tech and not enough on those other variables?

盖茨：我们需要考虑全部因素。

如果公民的参与度不高，

Gates: Well, we need all these things.

If you don't have a deep engagement,

尤其是年轻的一代人，

在往后 30 年里， 如果发达国家不将此事

particularly by the younger generation

看作是每一年的头等大事，

making this a top priority every year for the next 30 years

across all the developed countries,

我们是不会达成这个目标的。

我不知道该如何去动员所有人。

we will not succeed.

And I'm not the one who knows how to activate all those people.

但我很欣慰有这些领域的人才 在思考这个问题。

这是一个必要因素。

I’m super glad that the people who are smart about that are thinking.

同样的，在我有经验的领域，

It's a necessary element.

Likewise, the piece that I do have experience in,

创新生态系统，

这也是一个必要因素。

innovation ecosystems,

光靠呼吁“停止使用钢铁” 是达不到这个目标的。

that's a necessary element.

You will not get there just by saying, "Please stop using steel."

这样肯定行不通。

所以才要加入创新这个层面

You know, it won't happen.

And so the innovation piece has to come along

尤其要鼓励消费者去买电动汽车

and particularly encouraging consumers to buy electric cars

或者人造肉、热力泵等，

or artificial meat or electric heat pumps,

这是推动这个需求的一部分，

也是我所说的催化需求。

they're part of driving that demand,

但是光有这个也不够， 因为有些大项目，

what I call the catalytic demand.

像是绿色氢气或者绿色航空燃料

That alone won't do it, because some of these big projects,

需要数十亿资本的投入。

like green hydrogen or green aviation fuel

但来自开明消费者的需求信号非常重要。

require billions in capital expense.

But the demand signal from enlightened consumers is very important.

他们的政治表达非常重要。

他们对自身公司形成的推动力非常重要。

Their political voice is very important.

所以我完全同意关注于此的广大群体，

Their pushing the companies they work at is very important.

And so I absolutely agree that the broad community who cares about this,

尤其是如果他们能理解这其中的困难，

而不是嘴上说： “我们十年内就能做到，”

particularly if they understand how hard it is and don't say,

他们相当重要。

"Oh, we can do it in 10 years,"

they are super important.

吉桑尼：你也提到了人造肉， 我知道你喜欢吃汉堡。

你吃过人造肉汉堡吗，味道怎么样？

Giussani: You mentioned artificial meat and I know you love burgers.

Have you tried an artificial burger, and how did you find it?

盖茨：对，我投资了 Impossible、 Beyond 等素肉公司以及各色人物。

Gates: Yes, I’m an investor in all these Impossible, Beyond and various people.

但是不得不说的是，

这个行业的进展比我预期的要好得多。

And I have to say,

the progress in that sector is greater than I expected.

五年前，

我可能会认这个行业 和制造业一样艰难。

Five years ago,

如今还是很难，但不再 像制造业那么困难了。

I would have said that is as hard as manufacturing.

Now it's very hard, but not as hard as manufacturing.

在绿色钢铁行业中还没有 像 Impossible Foods 这样的公司

There is no Impossible Foods of green steel

而且素肉产品品质还在不断提升。

如今发展的还不错。

and the quality is going to keep improving.

同时，也有其它公司进入到这个领域

It's quite good today.

覆盖了各个不同类型的食物。

You know, there's other companies coming in to that space

当数量增多时， 价格自然也就降下来了。

covering different types of food.

我觉得还是很有前景的。

And as the volume goes up, the price will go down.

我必须承认，我吃的汉堡 还不是百分百的人造肉，

And so I think it's quite promising.

I have to admit, 100 percent of my burgers aren't artificial yet,

只有 50% 左右吧， 但是我最终会达成那个目标的。

it's about 50 percent, but I'll get there.

吉桑尼：这是一个开端。

你在这方面已经 超前到 2030 年了。

Giussani: It’s a start.

那么你也提到了 你在创新领域的专业知识。

You're already on 2030 on that on that front.

你在书中有几处—— 怎么说呢——

So you mentioned your expertise in innovation.

不矜不伐地提到

You have a couple of lines of -- how to say it? --

你像工程师一样思考，

of exquisite modesty in the book

说你不太懂政治，

where you say you think like an engineer,

但其实你与顶尖政客 交流的机会远多于常人。

you don't know much about politics,

你都会问他们什么问题， 而你又得到了什么答复？

but actually you talk to top politicians more than any of us.

盖茨：他们主要是在 回应选民的兴趣所在。

What do you ask them and what do you hear in return?

大部分我们提及的国家都是民主国家。

Gates: Well, they’re mostly responding to voters interest.

Most of the countries we're talking about are democracies.

而且，

我们需要投入很多资源

And you know,

there are resources that will need to be put in

比如使用税款抵免 来激励人们购买绿色产品

like tax credits that encourage buying green products

或者要求政府以略高的价格

or government purchasing of green products

购买环保产品。

那些确实都要取舍。

at slightly higher prices.

而且，还要考虑

提供了众多工作岗位的行业领域

Those are real trade-offs.

And, you know, making sure

that the areas where there's lots of jobs

比如说矿业，

或是需求将会下降的事物，

in, say, coal mining,

需要一定的政治敏感性和周全的考虑，

or things where the demand will go down,

我们是否可以在这个领域 创造新的工作机会

having that political sensitivity and thinking through,

又有哪些部门可以促成这件事。

can we put the new jobs in that area

这是一个很棘手的政治问题。

and what are the departments that handle that.

This is a tough political problem.

那么，我对人们的忠告是， 不仅自己要接受教育，

And, you know, my admonition to people is not only to get educated themselves,

同时也要帮助教育他人。

通常，在美国，

but help educate other people.

如果事关两个政党，那就更好了。

And often, like in the US,

if it's people of both parties, that's even better.

人们对这方面的兴趣很高，

但是还需要更高，

The level of interest is high,

对于年轻人来说，这几乎是

but it needs to get even higher,

一个高于他们个人成败的道德使命，

almost like a moral mission of all young people

他们要认识到在 2050 年 实现零排放是重中之重。

to go beyond their individual success,

that they believe that getting to zero by 2050 is critical.

吉桑尼：谢谢。

在我们继续进行下去前，

我想先聊点别的，

Giussani: Thank you.

Now, before we continue the interview,

我们 TED-Ed 的同事 受你的新书启发，

I would like to take a short detour for one minute

制作了七个动画视频的系列短片。

because my colleagues at TED-Ed have produced a series

介绍了什么是净零排放，

of seven animated videos inspired by your book.

讨论了在面对气候问题时

They introduce the concept of net zero emissions,

我们要讨论的其它问题和挑战。

they discuss other questions and challenges

所以我想在这里 和你分享其中一个片段。

that we are facing relating to climate.

So I would like to share one short clip from one of those animations.

（短片）你拨动了一个开关，

火炉中熊熊燃烧的煤块 让水变成了蒸汽。

(Video) You flip a switch,

coal burns in a furnace which turns water into steam.

蒸汽又让涡轮机开始旋转，

涡轮机启动了发电机，

That steam spins a turbine

电子流动过电线。

which activates a generator

电流通过了数百英里的电缆

which pushes electrons through the wire.

This current propagates through hundreds of miles of electric cables

最终到达了你的家。

全世界，

and arrives at your home.

无数人每时每秒都在进行着这个动作：

All around the world,

拨动开关，插上电源，按下“开机”键。

countless people are doing this every second:

flipping a switch, plugging in, pressing an "on" button.

那么人类到底需要多少电？

So how much electricity does humanity need?

吉桑尼：这个问题的答案， 及许多相关气候问题的答案，

都可以在 TED-Ed 网站 和 TED-Ed 油管账号主页的

Giussani: The answer to that and to many other climate questions, of course,

七个短视频中找到。

is in the seven animations available on the TED-Ed site,

比尔，你刚才提到了年轻的一代。

and the TED-Ed YouTube channel.

年轻人在解决这个问题时 所扮演的角色给了你什么样的启示？

Bill, you mentioned the younger generation before.

How does the younger generation's role in solving this problem inspire you?

盖茨：这么说，他们......

可以确保让这件事成为头等大事 。

Gates: Well, they ...

can make sure this is a priority.

如果我们头四年认为这是头等大事，

And if we have, you know, it's a priority for four years,

而下一个四年却不是了，

想要以这样的态度为 为新技术筹资数万亿美元

then it's not for four years,

you can't ask the trillions of investment in the new approach

是不可能的。

目标必须明确，

哪怕政治党派对此战略有分歧，

to take place.

It's got to be pretty clear

that even though political parties may disagree on the tactics,

就像大家都同意国家应该 具备强有力的国防一样，

the same way they agree there should be a strong defense

也该把 2050 年达成零排放 视为大家共同的目标，

that they agree this zero by 2050 is a shared goal,

之后再讨论政府应该在哪里介入，

and then discuss, OK, where does government come in,

私营企业应该在哪里介入，

哪些值得优先考虑的。

where does the private sector come in,

未来的一项重大里程碑

which area deserves priority?

就是当我们的开始讨论 我们如何达成这个目标

That will be a huge milestone

where it’s a discussion about how to get there

以及是否应该达成这个目标。

在美国，一件事一旦被政治化， 无论大事还是小事，

versus whether to get there.

And the US is the most fraught in terms of it being politicized,

都会令人头疼不已。

even in terms of, is this a huge problem or not.

所以，对于年轻人来说，

如果我们能够实现这个目标，

So, you know, young people,

they're going to be around to see the good news

他们就能够看到这些好消息。

if we're able to achieve this.

我可能看不到那一天。

但是，他们有道德话语权

You know, I won't be around.

而且他们中也有 正致力于实现此目标的人。

But, they speak with moral authority

and they have particular people who are stepping up on this.

我希望这只是个开始。

所以我认为今年至关重要。

But I hope that's just the beginning.

And that's why this year, I think, is so important.

回流的资金都被规划好了，

人们在想，政府是否 真的尽职保护了我们，

All this recovery money being programed,

people thinking about, do governments protect us the way they should,

政府之间是否有合作？

疫情把这一切都推到了风口浪尖，

do governments work together?

我们需要一同解决的 下一个重大问题是什么？

You know, the pandemic has teed this up, it’s OK,

what's the next big problem we need to collaborate around?

我希望些领域的活动分子

And I'm hoping that climate appears there

可以让人们更关心气候相关的问题。

吉桑尼：对，我们应该 再说回到疫情有关的问题上。

because of these activists.

但是我想聊一下你在书中提到的

Giussani: Yeah, we ought to come back to the pandemic question.

But I want to talk a moment about some specific technology breakthroughs

一些具体的技术突破。

但你也提到了

你创立的机构“突破能源”，

that you mention in the book.

用于投资清洁能源的初创公司 并且倡导相关政策。

But you also just mentioned

the organization you set up, Breakthrough Energy,

to invest in clean tech start-up and advocate for policies.

我假设你的书在某种程度上

是“突破能源”的蓝本。

And I assume somehow your book is kind of a blueprint

for what Breakthrough Energy is going to do.

这个机构中有一个分支，

叫作“催化剂”，

There is a branch in that organization,

此分支优先考虑了几种技术，

包括绿色氢气、直接空气碳捕获

called Catalyst,

that's prioritizing several technologies,

和航空生物燃料。

including green hydrogen direct carbon-capture,

我无意询问具体的投资情况，

但我想问为什么要 优先考虑这几项技术，

aviation biofuels.

I don't want to ask you about specific investments,

也许我们可以从绿色氢气开始说。

but I would like to ask you to describe why those priorities,

盖茨：如果我们可以把 绿色氢气的价格压到很低，

maybe starting with green hydrogen.

Gates: If we can get green hydrogen that’s very cheap,

我们还不确定这能否实现，

但绿色氢气可以成为 众多工程中的神奇材料，

and we don't know that we can,

that becomes a magic ingredient to a lot of processes

可以在生产肥料时免去天然气，

that lets you make fertilizer without using natural gas,

可以在的炼钢过程中 减少铁矿石的消耗，

it lets you reduce iron ore for steel production

同时还不使用任何形式的煤。

实现方法有两种。

without using any form of coal.

一种是将水分离成氢和氧气。

And so there's two ways to make it.

另一种是在天然气中分离出氢。

You can take water and split it into hydrogen and oxygen.

You can take natural gas and pull out the hydrogen.

这门技术可算是一项奇迹，

And so it's kind of a holy grail,

所以我们要继续做下去。

you know, and so we need to get going.

我们要让所有成分的价格 都变得十分便宜。

We need to get all the components to be very, very cheap.

只有通过这些实际的项目， 尤其是这种大规模的项目，

And only by actually doing projects, significant scale projects,

才能让我们进入学习曲线。

所以“催化剂项目”会和政府一起

do you get on to that learning curve.

And so Catalyst will fund

资助那些初期试点项目

生产绿色氢气，

the early pilot projects

along with governments to go make green hydrogen,

让电解器量产的同时

价格也就下来了，

get the electrolyzers to get up in volume

因为这将是一个巨大的进展。

and get a lot cheaper,

because that would be a huge advance.

制造业相关的许多问题， 虽非全部，都会因此得到解决。

Lot of manufacturing, not all of it, but a lot of it would be solved with that.

吉桑尼：给不知道的人简单科普一下，

绿色氢气由清洁能源生产，

Giussani: So just for those who don’t know,

比如说，风能和太阳能等等，

green hydrogen is produced with clean energy sources,

用天然气或化石燃料 生产的氮被称为灰色氢气。

wind, solar and so,

nitrogen produced from natural gas or fossil gas is called gray hydrogen.

你的第二优先项是直接空气碳捕获，

从大气层中捕捉碳。

The second priority that you have set is direct carbon capture,

至少在理论上，

我们可以找到一个大规模的操作方法。

pulling carbon from the atmosphere.

And at least in theory,

与其它技术手段相结合 就可以解决这个问题，

we can find a way to do that at large scale.

但是现在还处于非常早期的阶段， 技术手段还未经验证。

Together with other technologies the problem could be solved,

你在书中说现在处于思想实验的阶段。

but it's a very early-stage, unproven technology.

You describe it yourself in the book as a thought experiment at this stage.

但你是全世界在这个领域内 主要的投资者之一。

那么直接空气碳捕获的 实际发展潜能会是什么呢？

But you are one of the main investors in this sector in the world.

So what's the real potential for direct carbon capture?

盖茨：现在有这样一家公司 —— Climeworks，

Gates: So there’s a company today, Climeworks,

以每吨 600 美元以上的 价格进行碳捕获。

that for a bit over 600 dollars a ton will do capture.

现在还是一个较小的规模。

为了我的项目，我成为了他们的客户，

Now it’s at fairly small scale.

我的项目是按照黄金标准的要求

I'm a customer of theirs as part of my program

where I eliminate all of my carbon emissions

清除我本人所有的碳排放。

也有其他人试着建立规模大一些的工厂

in a gold standard way.

比如说 Carbon Engineering 公司。

There are other people who are trying to do larger-scale plants

“突破能源”项目投资了很多

like Carbon Engineering.

这类做碳捕获的公司。

Breakthrough Energy is investing

in a number of these carbon-capture entities.

某种程度上来说， 当其它方式都不管用时

就得靠碳捕获。

In a way, the carbon capture is for the part

这是一种比较强硬的方式，

that you can't solve any other way.

而且还不确定价格会是多少。

It's kind of the brute-force piece,

如果 100 美元一吨，

and no one knows what that price will be.

那么应对当前的碳排放量， 每年花费要在 5 万亿美元左右。

If it's 100 dollars a ton,

then the cost against current emissions would be five trillion a year.

我们每吨能否 降到 100 美元以下？

Can we get below 100 dollars a ton?

现在还不清楚，

但如果能处理 10 - 15% 的碳排放，

It's not clear that we can,

but it would be fantastic to take the final 10,

就很不错了，

并非对碳排放的出处

15 percent of emissions,

做了什么改变，

只是直接捕获了排放气体中的碳。

and instead of making the change

at the place where the emission takes place,

明确地说，直接空气碳捕获 意味着你只是过滤了空气，

just do this, direct air capture.

To be clear, direct air capture means you're just filtering the air,

把空气中浓度为 410 ppm 的碳分离出来

and you're pulling out the 410 million current parts per million

转化为压缩形式的二氧化碳

and putting that into a pressurized form of CO2

然后找个地方

隔离存放数百万年。

that then you sequester in someplace

因此这个行业还处于非常早期的阶段。

that you know it'll stay for millions of years.

And so this industry is just at the very, very beginning.

但这是处理碳排放的必要手段。

But it's a necessary piece for the tail of emissions.

吉桑尼：第三优先项是航空生物燃料。

在过去的几年间，

Giussani: And a third priority is aviation biofuels.

坐飞机象征着不环保的生活方式。

Now flying over the last several years

为什么把航空生物燃料设为优先项？

has become a symbol of a polluting lifestyle, let's say.

盖茨：小客车的优点在于

Why aviation biofuels as a priority?

即使电池蓄能效果

Gates: Well, the great thing about passenger cars

is that even though batteries don't store energy

不如汽油，

远远不如，

as well as gasoline does,

there's dramatic difference,

但你可以多买几块更大更重的电池。

you can afford to have the extra size and weight of those batteries.

对于长途飞行的大型飞机而言，

On a plane that is a large plane going a long distance,

电池的能量密度是绝对不够的。

there's no chance that batteries will ever have that energy density.

虽然有奇思妙想的人尝试着研发此事，

我也愿意投资他们，

I mean, there's some crazy people who are working on it,

但是我们不能把希望寄托于此。

所以，要么用氢气作为飞机燃料，

and I'll be glad to fund them,

but you wouldn't want to count on that.

And so you either have to use hydrogen as a plane fuel,

这有着一定的挑战性，

要么就是用环保的方式生产航空燃料，

that has certain challenges,

or you just want to make today's aviation fuel with green processes,

比如说在生产过程中 用植物作为材料来源。

like using plants as the source of how you make those.

在某家生产绿色航空燃料的集团里

我是他们最大的个人客户。

And so I'm the biggest individual customer

of a group that makes green aviation fuel.

我正在使用他们的产品，

花费是普通航空燃料的两倍。

So that's what I'm using now,

costs over twice as much as the normal aviation fuel.

但是当需求量增多时，

我们也希望这些产品的 绿色溢价能够降低

But as the demand scales up,

that's one of those green premiums that we hope to bring down

从而来到了某个节点，消费者就会说：

so that at some point lots of consumers will say,

“好，我愿意多付一点点机票钱。”

也许通过“催化剂”或航空公司

"Yes, I'll pay a little extra on my plane ticket,"

确保我们能逐渐建立起这个行业

probably through Catalyst or through the airline

to make sure that we're building up that industry

并且尝试大幅度降低其绿色溢价。

and trying to get the costs, that green premium down quite a bit.

所以这是一个非常重要的领域，

而且有意思的是，

So this is a super important area

当我去购买的时候

that, you know,

我惊讶地发现自己就是 当时最大的私人客户。

I was amazed when I went to buy

that I was by far the biggest individual customer.

吉桑尼：这也是一个 非常具有代表性的行业，对吧？

说到污染和排放时

Giussani: It’s also, of course, a very symbolic area, right?

人们总是想到汽车和飞机。

People think of cars and think of airplanes

when they think of pollution and emissions.

我还想聊一聊第四项技术

因为你自己本身倡导 并且投资了核能领域，

There is a fourth technology that I want to bring up

由于其风险和放射性废料，

because you are an advocate of and an investor in nuclear power,

which is also not universally accepted as clean energy because of the risks,

它并不是全球普遍接受的清洁能源。

你能简短地阐述一下 你对核能的看法吗？

because of radioactive waste.

Can you make the case, briefly, but can you make your case for nuclear?

盖茨：需要注意到的一点是，

能量总得有个来源。

Gates: Well, one thing that needs to be appreciated

当你停止使用天然气为家里取暖

is that energy has to come from somewhere.

或是停止使用汽油发动汽车时，

And so as you stop using natural gas to heat homes

电网的数量就会急剧上升。

and gasoline to power cars,

the electric grid will have to grow dramatically.

即使以美国为例，

在过去几十年的电力需求持平，

And even in the case of the US,

但未来的需求会上涨三倍。

where electricity demand has been flat the last few decades,

如果我们使用的能源会受天气影响，

will need to be almost three times as large.

As you do that with weather-dependent sources,

就无法稳定发电，

the reliability of the electricity generation goes away,

比如说在美国中西部地区，

如果遇到十多天的极端冷锋，

that as you get big cold fronts

that for 10 days can stop most of the wind and solar,

大多数风能和太阳能都会失效。

问题是要如何

say, in the Midwest.

传输、储存海量不依赖天气的能源，

So the question is, how do you use massive amounts of transmission

要想达到这个规模

and storage and non weather-dependent sources which at scale nuclear

只有选择核能

才可以保障其可靠性

as the only choice there,

而不至于让人们在极端天气中受冻。

to maintain that reliability

而核能——

and not have people, say, freeze to death.

人们可能会惊讶于核能的可靠性

And nuclear --

People will be pretty impressed with how valuable it is

有多可贵。

目前，至少在美国， 风能和太阳能占了八成。

to create that reliability.

Now, 80 percent, at least in the US, will be wind and solar.

所以我们要以更快的速度去建造。

So we have to build that faster than ever.

但核能就是一个永远稳固可用的选择。

But what is that piece that's always available is where nuclear would fit in.

吉桑尼：你在书中大篇幅描述了 有关扩大技术规模的问题。

我想问一个有关缩小规模的问题，

Giussani: Now, you talk a lot about scaling up technologies in the book.

你书中没有提到的是

I want to ask you a question about scaling down,

有关减少化石燃料生产的讨论，

because one thing that's absent from your book

是不是可以从不再扩大 生产规模这个点开始，

is a discussion about scaling down fossil fuel production,

采用一种防止化石燃料扩散的方式，

maybe starting with at least not expanding it anymore,

with adopting a sort of fossil fuel nonproliferation approach,

因为虽然我们现在聊的是 绿色转型相关的问题，

但同时我们却在进一步 建造化石燃料基础设施。

because right now we are talking about a green transition,

but at the same time we are building out further fossil fuel infrastructure.

你对此的看法是什么？

盖茨：这都是因为对化石燃料有需求

What's your view on that?

以及绿色溢价过高。

Gates: Well, it’s all about the demand for fossil fuels

and the fact that the green premium is very high.

如果限制供应，

那么价格就会升高。

If you want to restrict supply,

人们还是想要开车去上班。

then you'll just drive the price up.

如果说现在生产化石燃料是违法的。

People still want to drive to their job.

If you know, say you made fossil fuels illegal.

你试几周看看。

我的观点是要创造一个替代品

You know, try that for a few weeks.

因为现在化石燃料所供应的服务系统

My view is you have to create a substitute

because the services provided by the fossil fuel

依然非常重要。

电力很重要。

are actually quite valuable.

交通很重要。

Electricity is valuable.

Transportation is valuable.

人们愿意把对这些的需求降到零吗？

And are you willing to drop demand for those things to zero?

所以，资本经济会作出反应。

如果这一切都很明确的话，

So the capitalistic economy will respond.

比如说，你要如何制定 税收和信贷政策，

If it's clear, you know,

你得推动创新，

how you're going to do your tax policies and your credit,

投给基础设施的钱才会减少。

you're going to drive innovation,

then the infrastructure investments in those things will go down.

我们已经见证了当今的煤炭行业。

但是……

We see that with coal already today.

在我们还未找到替代品时， 嘴上就嚷嚷着要抵制某类产品

But ...

Just speaking against something when you haven't created an alternative

是无法帮我们实现零排放的。

吉桑尼：好的，我们换一个话题。 你之前也提到了疫情，

isn't going to get you to zero.

Giussani: OK, I want to shift topics.

自从建立了盖茨基金会， 你的主要关注重点

You mentioned before the pandemic,

一直是全球健康问题。

and your main focus since you set up the Gates Foundation

我其实也读了那封信，

你和夫人梅琳达在 2021 年 1 月分享给大众的那封年度信，

has been on global health.

I actually read the letter,

the annual letter you wrote with your wife, Melinda, in January 2021,

信中很大篇幅都在讲 2019 冠状病毒疫情。

我其实惊讶于

which was very much about the COVID-19 pandemic.

你信中表达的对气候问题方面的共鸣。

And I found myself marveling

at how what you write resonates with the climate challenge.

我们可以从疫情中学到什么 并运用到气候问题呢？

What lessons from the pandemic can be actually applied to climate?

盖茨：我认为最大的教训 就是政府应该以公民的名义

Gates: Well I think the biggest lesson is that governments got to, on our behalf,

去预防灾难带来的后果。

公民个人既没有能力去做这类评估

avoid disastrous future outcomes.

And individual citizens aren't equipped to either do those evaluations

也没有能力去研发和部署

or think through that R and D and deployment plan

必要的相关计划。

因次，我们必须要让各国政府

that's necessary here.

乃至社会各方

And so we have to make it an imperative

that governments, hopefully of any party,

都尽快地参与进来。

这次疫情，我们最终实现了全球协作。

join in to this.

The pandemic, we did eventually get global cooperation.

美国这次没能扮演往常的角色，

但是私营企业的创新部门制造了疫苗。

The US didn't play its normal role there,

but the private sector innovation created the vaccine.

现在很遗憾的是，

随着时间的推移， 气候带来的苦果将越来越严重。

Now, sadly, with climate,

the pain it's causing gets worse over time.

面对疫情，无数生命消亡，

人们才会省悟，“天呐， 我们该有所行动了。”

So with the pandemic, we had all these deaths,

面对气候问题，你却不能等。

and people were like, "Wow, OK, we should do something."

否则珊瑚礁会消失殆尽，

With climate you can't wait.

各类物种也会灭亡。

You know, the coral reefs will have died off,

如果你说，“哦，等到情况 真有那么糟糕了，

the species will be gone.

And so if you say, "OK, well, let's, when it gets bad,

我们再发明些类似疫苗的东西。”

这行不通的，

因为要停止这些排放，

we'll invent something like a vaccine."

需要改造每一间炼钢厂、 水泥厂、每一辆汽车，

That doesn't work,

because to stop the emissions,

you have to change every steel plant, cement plant, car,

这些东西的创建已经花费了大量时间

以及数万亿美元的投资。

things that have massive lead times

面对疫情，我们已经搞砸了。

and literally trillions of dollars of investment.

可我们没人在意。

And so with the pandemic, we messed up.

包括我在内的人都说过这会是个问题。

We didn't pay attention.

You know, people like myself said it was a problem.

但是我们现在可以 通过技术创新摆脱困境。

But, now we're getting our way out of it through innovation.

但气候方面的问题，却是难上加难。

因此，把事情做好的政治意愿

But climate's harder, much harder problem.

必须远远超过面对疫情时的

And so the political will to get it right

needs to be unprecedented

乃至其它所有的政治意愿。

compared to the pandemic or almost any other political cause.

吉桑尼：我想纠正一点 关于你说的私企创新部门，

Giussani: I want to correct you about private-sector innovation,

其实，有很多公共资金投入了相关研究

because, of course, a lot of public money went into funding research

并且保证最后会购买产品。

疫苗也是如此。

但这是另一个访谈话题。

and guaranteed purchases.

盖茨：辉瑞疫苗的研发 没有用到政府的资金。

And so for the vaccines.

But that's a separate interview.

吉桑尼：那倒是。

Gates: Well, the Pfizer vaccine used no government money.

比尔，说回到我们如何应对这些挑战，

Giussani: That’s absolutely true.

Bill, still related to our reaction to these big challenges,

自 2017 年以来， 超过半数的温室气体排放，

over half of the total greenhouse gas emissions since 2017,

在过去的 30 年间已经升至大气层。

三十多年来我们一直知道 这些气体会产生有害影响，

50 or 51 have gone up in the atmosphere in the last 30 years.

And we have known for more than 30 years that they have pernicious effects,

可以这么说。

如果我们能够调动庞大的资源和政策

to say the least.

从而全球合作应对 2019 冠状病毒疫情，

So if we could mobilize such enormous resources and policies

那么我们又该如何调动 同样的资源以应对气候挑战？

and collaborations and global collaborations against COVID-19,

what's the lever we can use to mobilize the same against climate?

盖茨：在 2015 年之前， 没人要求增加研发部门的预算。

Gates: Well, until 2015, nobody pushed for the R and D budgets to go up.

所以我有时就在想

“我们是认真的吗？”

So, you know, there are times when I think

"Wow, are we serious, are we not?"

根本就没人讨论研发相关的问题。

哪怕你阅遍了所有 绿色钢铁相关的论文，

You know, that R and D question just wasn't discussed.

And you could read every paper on green steel

也几乎找不到相关讨论。

and there were hardly any.

所以我们其实才刚刚开始 严肃看待气候问题。

And so we are just starting to get serious about climate.

而且，我们已经浪费了很多时间

不然我们早就开始挑战 气候方面最艰巨的难题了，

And you know, we've wasted a lot of time

我们现在只有短期目标， 没把重点放在研发上面，

that we should have used to work on the hard parts of climates,

just having short-term goals and not focusing on the R and D piece,

过去的 20 年里，

我们没能在最困难的领域有所建树。

you know, the last 20 years,

我们现在还有时间去达成这个目标。

we don't have much to show for the hard categories.

Now, there's still time to get there.

我们必须大量投资 适应气候变化的方案，

把目标设在 2050 年不是因为

We will have to fund adaptation a great deal

because the 2050 goal is not because that's a goal

时间到了就可以达到零排放。

只是因为想要实现这个伟大的目标

that gives you zero damage.

It's simply the goal that is the most ambitious

现在还有一丝机会。

that has a chance of being achieved.

我们确实给自耕自足的农民、

And we are causing problems for subsistence farmers

海平面上升、森林山火以及 自然生态系统带来了很多问题。

所以，投给适应气候变化的资金

and sea-level rise and wildfires and natural ecosystems.

远比投给减缓气候变化的更少。

And so the adaptation side is even more underfunded

比如，

帮助贫困农民购买 耐旱耐高温的种子的资金

than the mitigation side.

For example, helping poor farmers

with seeds that can deal with the droughts and high temperatures

每年都不足十亿，

这一点很可悲。

is funded at less than a billion a year,

which is deeply tragic.

吉桑尼：比尔，我们的 访谈接近尾声了。

我在开头提到过，

Giussani: Bill, we’re getting towards the end.

书中你称自己在气候方面 是一个不完美的信使。

I mentioned at the beginning,

in the book you describe yourself as an imperfect messenger on climate.

你在个人和家庭生活中， 都做了哪些改变

What changes have you made in your personal and family life

以减少自己的碳足迹？

盖茨：首先，我自己开的是电动车，

to reduce your footprint?

Gates: Well, I’m certainly driving an electric car,

而且，在房顶合适的地方 放置了太阳能板。

you know, putting solar panels on the houses where that makes sense.

同时，我也使用绿色航空燃料，

我还没能停止食用肉类产品，

Using this green aviation fuel,

I still can't say that I've stopped eating meat

也没有杜绝飞行。

所以我的主要方法是给绿色产品 每年投资超过七百万美元，

or that I never fly.

And so it's mostly by funding at over seven million a year

仅管当今的绿色溢价还很高，

the products that although their green premiums are very high today,

比如碳捕捉技术或航空燃料等，

like the carbon capture or like the aviation fuel,

通过资助这些项目， 可以让技术进入学习曲线

by funding those, you actually get those on to the learning curve

从而大幅度降低这些产品的价格。

to get those prices down very dramatically.

我资助的其中一个领域

是为低价住房中安装电动热力泵。

One area that I do

is I fund putting in electric heat-pumps into low-cost housing.

所以比起使用天然气，

使用电力产生的费用会很更低廉。

And so instead of using natural gas,

they get a lower bill because it's done with electricity.

并且我会付额外的资金用于碳抵消。

And I paid that extra capital cost as an offset.

以此，加速发展有需求的产品。

So, you know, accelerating those demand things.

我尝试在这方面领先于人。

吉桑尼：你在书中也提到过 用超过市场价

I've tried to get out in front of that.

Giussani: You also talk in the book about paying more than market value

或者高于当前市场价的费用 来购买碳信用额度以作抵消，

在谈到黄金标准时也提示过这一点。

or the current market price for offsets,

and you hinted to them before, talking about the golden standard.

那请你说说，什么样的——

因为碳抵消有时会令人困惑 而且容易有争议。

Tell us about what kind of --

什么才是正确的碳抵消？

offsets can be kind of confusing and controversial.

盖茨：首先，很高兴我们终于 谈到碳抵消这个话题了，

What are the right offsets?

一家关注自己的碳排放

Gates: Well, first of all, it’s great that we’re finally talking about offsets,

and any company that actually looks at their emissions

并且为碳抵消买单的公司

要远胜于一家不关注自己的碳排放

and pays for offsets

is way better than a company that either doesn't look at their emissions

或是关注碳排放 却不够买碳抵消的公司。

所以现在领先的公司都在购买碳抵消，

or looks at them and doesn't pay for offsets.

And so the leading companies are now buying offsets,

其中部分公司为此耗费数亿。

这是非常非常好的现象。

some of them spending hundreds of millions to buy offsets.

了解哪些碳抵消措施长期有效

That is a very, very good thing.

The ability to see which offsets actually have long-term benefit

才真正能长久除碳。

that really keep the carbon out

for the over thousands of years that count.

我和相关人士投资的几家机构

There are now organizations that I and others are funding

会去标注哪些碳抵消措施符合黄金标准

或是它们的影响力度。

to label offsets as either gold standard

or different levels of impact.

而碳抵消措施的价格 也从每吨 15 美元

And the price of offsets range from 15 dollars a ton

至每吨 600 美元不等。

有一些低成本措施也许真的能见效，

to 600 dollars a ton.

Some of the low-cost ones may be really legitimate,

像是减少天然气泄漏。

like reducing natural gas leakage.

每吨如果能省下几百美元，

That is pretty dramatic in some cases

其实是相当可观的。

in terms of the dollars per tons avoided there.

林业方面的种种问题 可能就不太可观了，

A lot of the forestry things will probably not end up looking that good,

因为你要了解树木能活多久

或是树木死了该怎么办。

as you really look at the lifetime of the tree

但是，起码我们现在 开始谈论碳抵消了。

or what would have happened otherwise.

But, you know, at least we're talking about offsets now.

而且现在我们要用一种 周全的方法去做这件事。

And now we're going to do it in a thoughtful way.

吉桑尼：我们的一部分观众

可能已经深度参与了气候变化的应对，

Giussani: So some of the people listening to this interview

另一部分人可能还在寻求参与的方法。

may already be very involved with climate,

在你书的结尾处，

others may be looking for ways to step up.

有一章讨论的是有关个人行动的问题。

And at the end of your book,

请给我们举两个例子，

you have a chapter about individual action.

无论是美国或其它地方的人

Give us maybe, say, two examples,

都能用上的例子，

two practical examples of things that individual citizens in the US,

让人们在应对气候挑战时 真正可以参与其中。

but also elsewhere,

can do to play a meaningful role in tackling climate change.

盖茨：我认为每个人 都应该从多了解一点开始。

Gates: I think everybody should start by learning more, you know.

我们生产了多少钢？ 炼钢厂都建在哪儿？

How much steel do we make and where are those steel plants?

工业经济算是一个奇迹，

可遗憾的是，这也是 众多废气的排放源。

The industrial economy is kind of a miracle,

although sadly, it's a source of so many emissions.

等到你真正了解了这些知识以后，

就轮到你来传播知识了，

Once you really educate yourself,

希望你能让不同政治立场的人

then you're in a position to educate others,

都明白这件事有多么重要。

hopefully, of diverse political beliefs

about why this is so important.

但是现在来说，还是非常困难的。

And yet it's also very, very hard to do.

你的所有购买行为、

电动车、人造肉等等，

You have all your buying behavior,

可以看到各种各样的产品，

electric cars, artificial meat, you know,

各色标榜着绿色环保的产品。

and you'll see for all the different products

various things that indicate how green that product is.

我们的需求不仅仅是减少排放，

And your demand doesn't just save those emissions,

也要敦促提高和改善 这些绿色环保产品。

it also encourages the improvement of the green product.

我认为政治表达还是要排第一位。

Political voice, I'd still put it number one.

要确保企业在计算自己的排放量，

Making sure your company is measuring its emissions

开始购买碳抵消

并愿意采用

and is starting to fund offsets

突破性的蓄能方案

and is willing to be a customer

或是绿色航空燃料。

for breakthrough storage solutions

这些都是具有催化性的。

or green aviation fuel.

然后，希望大部分资金都能够

That is catalytic.

流向各国并找到那些

And a lot of those funds hopefully will go through this vehicle

that's really identifying which projects globally

能够降低绿色溢价的项目，

像太阳能和风能那样实用且价格便宜。

are technologies that won't stay expensive

but can do like what solar and wind did and come down in price.

这件事是由个人推动的。

So individuals are what drive this thing.

民主国家最具创新力，

The democracies are where most of the innovation power is

这些国家必须作为榜样行动起来。

and they have to get activated and set the example.

吉桑尼：采访的结尾我想聊一个成果。

Giussani: I would like to end on the outcome.

也许我们应该以这个作为开头，

让我们想象这样一个世界：

如果我们把你在书中 提到的所有事项都实现了，

Maybe we should have started with the outcome,

but let's imagine a world

where we will actually have done all of what you describe in the book

书中没提到的必要事项也实现了，

未来的生活将是什么样？

and everything else that's necessary.

What would that future everyday life look like?

盖茨：我认为每个人都会非常自豪，

因为全球人类团结一致

Gates: Well, I think everybody will be really proud

that humanity came together on a global basis

完成了这次浩大的改造工程，

这其实是史无前例的。

to make this radical change

即使在世界大战期间，

and there's no precedent for it.

我们设法调集众多物资，

那也只是为期 4 - 5 年的时间。

Even world wars,

where we orchestrated lots of resources,

但我们现在说的是为期三十年的努力，

it was, like, four or five year duration.

And here we're talking about three decades of hard work

一起应对一个

未来才会出现的超级“恶霸”。

dealing with an enemy

that the super bad stuff is out in the future.

所以这其实是在造福 我们的年轻人和后代。

And so you're benefiting young people and future generations.

在某种程度上，

In some ways, you know,

未来的生活还是会和今天很相似。

还是会有建筑物，

life will look a lot like it does today.

还是会有空调， 晚上还是会有万家灯火。

You'll still have buildings,

但是这一切所产生的废气排放

you'll have air conditioning, you'll have lights at night.

都可以乘上一个零。

But all of those you'll multiply by zero

in terms of what the emissions that come out of those activities are.

与此同时，

我们也会进一步研发治疗癌症的医药，

During the same time frame

消除小儿麻痹症和疟疾等疾病。

we'll have advances in medicine of curing cancer

通过消除这个极端负面的事物

and finishing polio and malaria and all sorts of things.

And so by taking away this one super negative thing,

人类在其他领域取得的成就

就不会受到这个负面事物的影响，

then all the progress we make in other areas

won't get reduced by this awful thing

但如果人们对此置之不理，

从而引发赤道地区的人口迁徙

that, if it goes unchecked,

the migration out of the equatorial regions,

以及死亡的人数，

会让疫情都显得微不足道。

从道德的角度我是这样想的

the number of deaths,

it'll make the pandemic look like nothing.

要让其它方面取得的进步 不被碳排放所抵消。

I think so from a moral point of view

and letting the other improvements not be offset by this.

这会让我们都有一种自豪感，

It'll be a source of great pride

因为我们团结一致。

吉桑尼：期待那一天的到来。

that, hey, we came together.

比尔·盖茨，非常感谢你的分享，

Giussani: OK, let’s hope that we actually do.

也非常感谢你带来这本重量级的书。

Bill Gates, thank you for sharing your knowledge,

再次感谢你来到 TED 。

thank you for this very, very important book.

我们以 TED-Ed 动画系列的 另一支短片作为结尾，

And thank you for coming back to TED.

I want to close by showing another short clip

该系列受比尔新书启发而制。

该短片讲的是我们周遭 具有高碳足迹的事物，

from the TED-Ed animation series inspired by Bill's book.

This one is about material that's all around us,

以及我们应该如何对其进行改造。

has a big carbon footprint and how to reinvent it.

该系列包含七支短片。

可以在以下网址免费观看： ed.ted.com/planforzero

Now, the series includes seven videos.

You can watch them all for free at ed.ted.com/planforzero.

planforzero 不加空格。

在 TED-Ed 的油管频道也可以观看。

That's planforzero, one single word.

非常感谢，再见。

And on the TED-Ed YouTube channel.

（视频）看看你家里的四周。

Thank you. Goodbye.

冰箱以及其它取暖和制冷的设备，

(Video) Look around your home.

它们一同产生的碳排放 占排放总量的 6% 。

Refrigeration, along with other heating and cooling,

makes up about six percent of total emissions.

为我们生产食物的农业， 占排放总量的 18% 。

Agriculture, which produces our food, accounts for 18 percent.

电力占了 27% 。

Electricity is responsible for 27 percent.

来到室外，马路上车水马龙， 头顶有飞机呼啸而过，

火车上挤满了上下班的打工人。

Walk outside and the cars zipping past, planes overhead,

交通，包括轮船在内，

trains ferrying commuters to work.

产生了 16% 的温室气体排放。

Transportation, including shipping,

contributes 16 percent of greenhouse gas emissions.

甚至在我们开始使用这些事物前，

光是制造它们，排放就已经产生了，

Even before we use any of these things,

惊人的排放。

making them produces emissions,

制造这些材料、水泥、 钢筋、塑料、玻璃、

a lot of emissions.

Making materials, concrete, steel, plastic, glass,

铝制品还有其它一切事物

占温室气体排放量的 31% 。

aluminum and everything else

accounts for 31 percent of greenhouse gas emissions.

[观看完整动画系列请登录： ed.ted.com/planforzero

以及 youtube.com/ted/ed ]

[Watch the full animated series at ed.ted.com/planforzero

and youtube.com/ted-ed]