The Clean Energy Hub of the Future | Rebekah Shirley | TED

翻译人员: Clare Devereux 校对人员: suya f.

Africa is perhaps the continent that needs least convincing

非洲也许是最不需要 说服人们相信清洁能源可以

about the clean energy opportunity

for health, livelihoods and economy.

为健康、生计和经济带来机遇的大陆。

作为发展最快，但电气化 程度全球最低的大陆，

As the fastest-growing, yet least-electrified continent on the globe

most in need of power systems that can help fortify

非洲最需要的是 能抵抗气候冲击的电力系统。

against the onslaught of climate shocks

and with both abundant fossil

在拥有丰富的化石能源 和可再生能源资源的情况下，

and renewable energy resources to build them,

Africa's energy transitions

非洲的能源转型以及 如何劝阻化石燃料的使用

and how to dissuade the use of fossil fuels

have become an intense international debate.

已经成为一场激烈的国际辩论。

But what the debates often miss is that Africa is not a single story.

但这些争论大多忽略了一件事， 即非洲的问题并不是个例。

As an energy systems modeler,

作为电力系统的建模师，

I can tell you that though the baseline is low,

我可以肯定地说， 即使基线很低，

where they do have power,

许多拥有电力的、 撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲国家

many Sub-Saharan African countries already rely on low-carbon resources.

已经能依靠低碳资源生活。

Kenya, where I live,

肯尼亚，我居住的地方，

generates 90 percent of its power from renewables

它 90% 的电力都来自可再生能源，

like geothermal and hydropower.

如：地热能和水能。

Even in West Africa,

甚至在可再生能源更少的西非也是如此。

where renewable shares tend to be lower,

countries like Ghana generate over a third of their power

像加纳这样的国家

有超过三分之一的电力 来自于可再生能源。

from renewable energy resources.

And countries like Namibia are at the forefront of innovation

而像纳米比亚这样的国家

on clean fuels like green hydrogen.

则在绿色氢气等清洁燃料的 创新方面处于领先地位。

Couple all of that with housing one of the world's largest carbon sinks,

再加上拥有世界上 最大的碳汇之一的刚果盆地，

the Congo Basin,

撒哈拉以南非洲一直被认为

and Sub-Saharan Africa is consistently recognized

在全球去碳化努力中承担了

as pulling more than its fair share of the global decarbonization effort.

超过其职责的份额。

So unlike the deep emissions reductions,

因此，与我们需要 从重度排放国看到的

and urgent pivot away from fossil fuels we need to see from heavy emitters,

深度减排和化石燃料的 紧急转向不同，

Sub-Saharan Africa and energy transitions

撒哈拉以南非洲和能源转型

are more a question of how to quickly ramp up generation

更重要的是如何以负担得起、

and distribution capacities

可获得、有弹性的方式

in ways that are affordable, accessible, resilient,

迅速提高发电和配电能力，

while staying the course of climate compatibility.

同时坚持气候兼容性。

So if the need is urgent and if the resources are bountiful,

如果说需求是迫切的，资源是丰富的，

then why are we still so far away from this clean energy future for Africa?

那为什么我们离在非洲使用 清洁能源的未来仍然如此遥远？

I've led the design and deployment of energy projects here myself.

我曾在这里领导过 能源项目的设计和部署。

And I found and what I've learned

我发现和了解到的是，

is that though the world loves to remind Africa

尽管世界喜欢提醒非洲

about its vast clean energy potential,

其具有巨大的清洁能源潜力，

the financial flows to deliver that potential

但挖掘这一潜力的现金流

remain troublingly scarce.

依然是极度匮乏的。

Projects and businesses incur a number of hidden compounding costs and premiums.

项目和企业会产生一些 隐藏的复合成本和溢价。

Like the risk perception premium.

比如说风险认知溢价。

Or the “paying back your US dollar loan

或者 “用不断贬值的当地货币 偿还美元贷款 “的溢价。

in a constantly depreciating local currency” premium.

Or the “expected to deliver conventionally high rates of return

或者是 “希望提供常规的高回报率，

while raising your revenues from customers

同时从每天收入低于一美元的 客户那里提高收入”的溢价。

that earn less than a dollar a day” premium.

So international finance markets are not appetized

所以，国际金融市场对此毫无兴趣，

and financial flows here remain a trickle

尽管有一系列准备就绪的项目，

despite a pipeline of ready projects.

但这里的资金流动仍然是涓涓细流。

Effectively, this prioritizes risk to capital

实际上，这将资本的风险置于 人类生命的风险之上。

over risk to human life.

In fact, though, 17 percent of the global population

事实上，全球人口的17%

and almost 90 percent of those still without access to basic energy,

或者说这 17% 的人口中 的 90% 仍然无法获得基本能源，

today, Africa accounts for a mere two percent

直到今天，非洲只占了

of global clean energy finance.

全球清洁能源融资的 2% 。

These realities of local enterprise rarely make it into the models

地方企业的这些现实情况 很少被考虑进模型中，

or the debates,

也很少出现在那些争论中，

leaving us with a skewed perception of what transition really takes

这使我们对转型真正需要的东西、

or why progress might seem so slow.

或进展可能看起来如此 缓慢的原因产生歪曲的认知。

From this perspective, we can see a key missing ingredient:

从这个角度来看，我们可以看到 一个关键的缺失因素：

International cooperation to deliver the finance flows

即通过国际合作为非洲提供 其迫切需要的资金流，

that Africa sorely needs

because there’s so much potential waiting right at the cusp.

因为在这个风口浪尖上 有如此多的潜力在等待我们发掘。

If local enterprise had access to long-term, low-cost financing,

就像他们在世界其他地区的同行一样，

like their counterparts in other regions of the world

如果当地企业能够理所当然地

can simply take for granted,

获得长期的、低成本的融资，

then Africa's clean energy future would build itself.

那么非洲的清洁能源 就能建设它自己的未来。

We know this because African communities,

我们之所以知道这一点，

是因为非洲社区通过他们的行动，

by their actions,

show us the kinds of futures that they want.

向我们展示了他们想要的未来。

As our cushioned conferences wax on year after year,

当我们的缓冲会议年复一年地进行时，

my friend Jeffrey runs a solar company

我的朋友杰弗里（Jeffrey） 经营着一家太阳能公司，

that targets commercial and industrial customers,

该公司的目标客户是商业和工业群体，

helping to kick-start what has become the fastest growing wave

并帮助启动已经成为 整个非洲大陆增长最快的

of solar across the continent.

太阳能使用热潮。

And also demonstrating that African businesses

同时也证明非洲企业看到了

see value in being powered by renewables.

可再生能源供电的价值。

My neighborhood buddy, Samir, runs a solar irrigation company.

我的邻居萨米尔（Samir） 经营着一家太阳能灌溉公司。

It's estimated that about 95 percent of farmers in Africa

据估计，大约 95% 的非洲农民

still rely entirely on increasingly erratic rains.

仍完全靠越来越不稳定的雨水灌溉。

So this is a game changer for food security.

因此，太阳能灌溉将改变游戏规则。

My former student, Phoebe,

我之前有个学生，她叫菲比。

she now designs fuel-efficient cook stoves

她现在设计的节能炉灶

that reach into thousands of homes

已经进入赞比亚到莫桑比克的

from Zambia to Mozambique,

成千上万个家庭。

providing sustainable alternatives

这些炉灶为非洲大陆最大的 能源使用方——家庭烹饪，

to what is actually the largest energy use on the continent,

household cooking.

提供可持续的替代方案。

And at the World Resources Institute,

而在世界资源研究所，

we support dozens of young Rwandan,

我们支持数十家年轻的卢旺达、

Ugandan and Kenyan electric mobility start-ups

乌干达和肯尼亚的电动汽车初创企业，

that are revolutionizing the face of transit in East Africa.

这些企业将彻底改变 东非的交通面貌。

These are real people, real stories, real families

这些都是真实的人、 真实的故事、真实的家庭，

representing a real wave of local enterprise,

他们代表了当地企业的真实浪潮，

successfully serving communities across an entire spectrum of energy needs.

成功地为需要能源的社区提供服务。

These are real salaries, real rents, real mortgages,

这些是真实的工资、 真实的租金、真实的抵押贷款，

real savings being put on the line every day.

以及真实的储蓄， 人们愿意用它们去冒险。

Is that not the utmost confidence

这难道不是对非洲清洁能源的 商业潜力的最大信心吗？

in Africa's clean energy business potential?

Imagine how fast we could go and how far we could move

想象一下，如果他们有一个 公平的竞争环境，而不是更多的障碍，

if they had a level playing field instead of yet more obstacles to climb.

我们能走多快，能走多远。

And if they can be invested,

如果他们可以得到投资，

then what excuse remains for those with the means and the responsibility?

那么那些有能力和责任的人 还有什么借口失败？

Africa is speaking.

非洲在讲述它的故事。

But it's not one story.

但是，这不只是一个故事。

It's not even 54 stories.

它甚至不是 54 个故事。

It's the stories of thousands of communities

而是数以千计的社区 调动他们所需的能源、

mobilizing the features they want

and inviting the world's partnership in it.

并邀请世界参与其中的故事。

Partnership.

合作伙伴。

Not charity, not a victim song,

不是慈善，不是对受害者的同情

but fairness and cooperation.

而是公平和合作。

Ambitious, time-bound commitments

国家、银行和提供发展基金的机构 做出雄心勃勃的、有时限的承诺，

to deliver long-term, low cost financing at scale

from countries, banks and development finance institutions.

以提供长期、低成本的大规模融资。

Two, increased concessional financing, not reclassified financing,

第二点，增加优惠融资， 而不是重新分类的融资，

that doesn’t just target the easily profitable projects,

不只是针对容易获利的项目，

but that is leveraged to drive global capital to least-electrified communities.

而是通过杠杆作用将全球资本 推向最电气化程度最低的社区。

And three.

第三点，

Programs that expand the access to that finance

增加融资渠道的方案、

and initiatives that bolster local supply chains,

实施支持当地供应链的举措，

generating value, revenues,

在国内创造价值、 收入、就业和技能。

employment and skills at home.

These are the solutions

这些都是国际社会必须作为 紧急优先事项的解决方案，

that the international community must make an urgent priority,

even as African countries do their own homework

即使是非洲国家正在为改善 当地商业环境做出自己的努力。

to improve the local business environment.

And this, delivering accessible, clean energy financing at scale

比起争论各国应该如何利用其现有资源，

will be a far more productive show of partnership and trust

提供大规模的、可获得的清洁能源融资

than debating what countries should do with their available resources.

才是一种更有成效的 伙伴关系和信任的展示。

Climate justice is heavy emitters cooperating

碳排放大国进行合作，

to realize clean energy futures

帮助那些无法获得全球碳预算的 公平份额的国家实现清洁能源的未来，

for those countries that have been denied,

locked out of their fair share of a global carbon budget.

才是真正的气候正义。

So today, let's cut past the talk

所以今天，让我们抛开空谈，

and focus on unleashing the avalanche of a clean-energy future

把注意力放在如何释放 非洲准备带来的大量清洁能源的未来上。

that Africa is ready to deliver.

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Cheers and applause)

（欢呼与掌声）