6 big ethical questions about the future of AI | Genevieve Bell

翻译人员: Weiye Wang 校对人员: Iris Li

让我给你们讲一个 关于人工智能的故事。

在悉尼的布莱街 1 号 有一座大楼。

内有很多政府套间

Let me tell you a story about artificial intelligence.

和忙碌的人们。

从外面看，它就像 美国科幻小说里的东西：

There's a building in Sydney at 1 Bligh Street.

全是闪亮的玻璃和弯曲的线条，

It houses lots of government apartments

and busy people.

还有一件橘黄色的雕塑。

From the outside, it looks like something out of American science fiction:

在里面，一楼有很好的咖啡，

all gleaming glass and curved lines,

还有我在悉尼最喜欢的电梯。

它们很漂亮；

and a piece of orange sculpture.

它们看起来鲜活的。

On the inside, it has excellent coffee on the ground floor

事实证明，我沉迷于电梯。

原因有很多。

and my favorite lifts in Sydney.

因为电梯是你可以 看见未来的地方之一。

They're beautiful;

they look almost alive.

在21世纪，电梯很有趣。

And it turns out I'm fascinated with lifts.

因为它们是人工智能能够 在你不知不觉间触及你的首批地点。

For lots of reasons.

But because lifts are one of the places you can see the future.

In the 21st century, lifts are interesting

在世界各地的许多建筑中，

because they're one of the first places that AI will touch you

电梯正在运行一套算法。

一种原型人工智能的形式。

without you even knowing it happened.

In many buildings all around the world,

这意味着在你走到 电梯按下按钮之前，

the lifts are running a set of algorithms.

它就已经预见你在那里了。

A form of protoartificial intelligence.

它已经在重新安排所有的轿厢。

That means before you even walk up to the lift to press the button,

总是往下走，以节省能源，

并知道将在哪里通行。

it's anticipated you being there.

当你真正按下按钮的时候，

It's already rearranging all the carriages.

你已经是整个系统的一部分了，

这个系统正在对人、环境、

Always going down, to save energy,

and to know where the traffic is going to be.

建筑和建构的世界进行感知。

By the time you've actually pressed the button,

我知道当我们谈论人工智能时， 我们经常谈论一个机器人的世界。

you're already part of an entire system

that's making sense of people and the environment

我们的想象力很容易被科幻小说替代，

and the building and the built world.

嗯，在过去的100年里。

I know when we talk about AI, we often talk about a world of robots.

我说人工智能，你会想到 “终结者“。

It's easy for our imaginations to be occupied with science fiction,

在某个地方，对我们来说， 把人工智能和建构的世界联系起来，

well, over the last 100 years.

这是个更难说的故事。

I say AI and you think "The Terminator."

但现实是，人工智能已经 遍布在我们周围。

Somewhere, for us, making the connection between AI and the built world,

并在很多地方。

它存在于建筑物和系统中。

that's a harder story to tell.

200多年的工业化进程表明，

But the reality is AI is already everywhere around us.

人工智能将相对容易地达到 在系统层面的规模。

And in many places.

It's in buildings and in systems.

毕竟，这段历史的一个说法表明，

More than 200 years of industrialization

你所要做的就是找到一种技术，

suggest that AI will find its way to systems-level scale relatively easily.

实现规模化，革命就会随之而来。

机械化、自动化和数字化的故事

After all, one telling of that history

suggests that all you have to do is find a technology,

都指出了技术的作用和它的重要性。

achieve scale and revolution will follow.

The story of mechanization, automation and digitization

这些技术变迁的故事

使规模看起来正常。

all point to the role of technology and its importance.

或符合预期。

而且稳定。

甚至有时是可预测的。

Those stories of technological transformation

make scale seem, well, normal.

但也把重点放在了 技术和技术变革上。

Or expected.

And stable.

但我相信，扩展一项技术 和建立一个系统

And sometimes even predictable.

需要更多的东西。

But it also puts the focus squarely on technology and technology change.

我们在澳大利亚国立大学成立了3Ai研究所

But I believe that scaling a technology and building a system

于2017年9月。

requires something more.

它有一个看似简单的使命：

We founded the 3Ai Institute at the Australian National University

建立一个新的工程分支，

以安全、可持续和负责任的方式 将人工智能推向规模。

in September 2017.

It has one deceptively simple mission:

但你如何在21世纪 建立一个新的工程分支？

to establish a new branch of engineering

好吧，我们正在通过一个实验性的

to take AI safely, sustainably and responsibly to scale.

教育项目来训练它。

But how do you build a new branch of engineering in the 21st century?

我们正在研究它，

地点包括莎士比亚的出生地，

Well, we're teaching it into existence

through an experimental education program.

大堡礁，

更不用说澳大利亚最大的自治矿场之一。

We're researching it into existence

with locations as diverse as Shakespeare's birthplace,

而我们正在将其理论化，

关注于控制论系统的复杂性。

the Great Barrier Reef,

not to mention one of Australia's largest autonomous mines.

我们正在努力搭建 一些新的和有用的东西。

And we're theorizing it into existence,

培养下一代批判性思考者 和批判性行动者的东西。

paying attention to the complexities of cybernetic systems.

我们正在通过对人工智能的许多过去

We're working to build something new and something useful.

和许多故事的更丰富的理解 来实现这一切。

Something to create the next generation of critical thinkers and critical doers.

通过教学、研究、雇佣的协作和合作

And we're doing all of that

through a richer understanding of AI's many pasts and many stories.

关注问题的框架

And by working collaboratively and collectively

和问题的解决

through teaching and research and engagement,

我们不是在制造一个单一的人工智能，

我们是在为许多人创造可能性。

and by focusing as much on the framing of the questions

我们正在积极努力 使我们的想象力去殖民化，

as the solving of the problems.

并建立一个课程和教学法，

We're not making a single AI,

we're making the possibilities for many.

为一系列不同的对话和可能性留下空间。

And we're actively working to decolonize our imaginations

我们正在创造和重塑。

and to build a curriculum and a pedagogy

我知道我们始终是一个进行中的工作。

that leaves room for a range of different conversations and possibilities.

但是，这里可以看到我们是

如何处理这个面向未来的问题的。

We are making and remaking.

And I know we're always a work in progress.

我们从确保我们立足于 我们自己的历史开始。

But here's a little glimpse

into how we're approaching that problem of scaling a future.

在2018年12月，

我去了新南威尔士州和昆士兰州

交界处的布雷瓦里纳镇。

We start by making sure we're grounded in our own history.

这个地方是原住民、

In December of 2018,

不同群体的聚会场所，

I took myself up to the town of Brewarrina

他们聚集在一起， 举行仪式、见面、相聚。

on the New South Wales-Queensland border.

在巴元河 (Barwon River) 上， 有一组鱼堰，

This place was a meeting place for Aboriginal people,

是澳大利亚最古老和最大的

for different groups,

to gather, have ceremonies, meet, to be together.

原住民捕鱼系统之一。

这个系统由1.8公里长的石墙组成，

There, on the Barwon River, there's a set of fish weirs

that are one of the oldest and largest systems

形状像一系列鱼网，

“我们”指向河下，

of Aboriginal fish traps in Australia.

使鱼被困于不同高度的水中。

This system is comprised of 1.8 kilometers of stone walls

它们也是具有不同高度墙体的储鱼池，

shaped like a series of fishnets

with the "Us" pointing down the river,

旨在改变水的流动方式，

allowing fish to be trapped at different heights of the water.

能够储存大鱼和小鱼，

并将这些鱼放在凉爽、清澈的流水中。

They're also fish holding pens with different-height walls for storage,

designed to change the way the water moves

这个捕鱼系统是一种 确保当人们可以被喂饱的方式。

and to be able to store big fish and little fish

当人们聚集在一个既是河流交汇

and to keep those fish in cool, clear running water.

又是文化交汇的地方时。

这不是关于岩石， 甚至不是关于捕鱼器本身。

This fish-trap system was a way to ensure that you could feed people

as they gathered there in a place that was both a meeting of rivers

它是这些存水弯所创造的系统。

and a meeting of cultures.

这个系统涉及技术知识、

It isn't about the rocks or even the traps per se.

文化知识和生态知识。

It is about the system that those traps created.

这个系统是古老的。

一些考古学家认为它有4万年的历史。

One that involves technical knowledge,

cultural knowledge

我们最后一次记录它的用途 是在19世纪10年代。

and ecological knowledge.

This system is old.

它有非凡的寿命和令人难以置信的规模。

Some archaeologists think it's as old as 40,000 years.

The last time we have its recorded uses is in the nineteen teens.

这对我来说是一种激励。

堰塞湖的照片就挂在我们研究所的墙上，

It's had remarkable longevity and incredible scale.

以提醒我们的承诺和挑战，

And it's an inspiration to me.

去建设有意义的东西。

并提醒我们，我们正在

And a photo of the weir is on our walls here at the Institute,

一个人们世代建立

to remind us of the promise and the challenge

并维持这些相同系统的地方建立系统。

of building something meaningful.

这不仅是我们的历史，

And to remind us that we're building systems

也是我们寻求建立 一个新的工程分支时的遗产。

in a place where people have built systems

and sustained those same systems for generations.

基于这种遗产和我们的使命感，

It isn't just our history,

我认为我们需要一个明确的框架 来提出关于未来的问题。

it's our legacy as we seek to establish a new branch of engineering.

这里的问题没有现成的或简单的答案，

To build on that legacy and our sense of purpose,

问题的关键在于提出这些问题。

I think we need a clear framework for asking questions about the future.

我们相信，你需要超越传统的

Questions for which there aren't ready or easy answers.

解决问题的方法，

转而采用更复杂的提问

Here, the point is the asking of the questions.

和问题框架。

We believe you need to go beyond the traditional approach

因为这样做，你会开辟出各种新的可能性

of problem-solving,

to the more complicated one of question asking

和新的挑战。

对我来说，现在有六大问题，它们构成了

and question framing.

Because in so doing, you open up all kinds of new possibilities

我们安全、可持续和负责任地 将人工智能推向规模的方法。

and new challenges.

For me, right now,

关于自主性、代理、保证、

there are six big questions that frame our approach

指标、界面和意向性的问题。

for taking AI safely, sustainably and responsibly to scale.

我们问的第一个问题是一个简单的问题。

Questions about autonomy,

agency, assurance,

该系统是自主的吗？

indicators, interfaces and intentionality.

回想一下布莱街的那部电梯。

现实是，有一天， 那部电梯可能是自主的。

The first question we ask is a simple one.

这就是说，它将能够在 没有人告诉它的情况下采取行动。

Is the system autonomous?

Think back to that lift on Bligh Street.

但它并不是完全自主的，对吗？

The reality is, one day, that lift may be autonomous.

它不能离开布莱街的大楼，

Which is to say it will be able to act without being told to act.

去环形码头喝啤酒。

它可以上上下下，仅此而已。

But it isn't fully autonomous, right?

但它是自主做的。

It can't leave that Bligh Street building

and wonder down to Circular Quay for a beer.

在这个意义上，它是自主的。

我们问的第二个问题是：

It goes up and down, that's all.

这个系统有代理吗？

But it does it by itself.

It's autonomous in that sense.

这个系统是否有控制和限制，

The second question we ask:

阻止它在某些条件下做某些事情。

does this system have agency?

Does this system have controls and limits that live somewhere

现实中的电梯，绝对是这样的。

想想你坐过的任何电梯。

that prevent it from doing certain kinds of things under certain conditions.

在电梯轿厢里有一个红色的钥匙槽，

紧急服务人员可以把钥匙插进去，

The reality with lifts, that's absolutely the case.

控制整个系统。

Think of any lift you've been in.

但如果这个系统是人工智能驱动的， 会发生什么？

There's a red keyslot in the elevator carriage

钥匙在哪里？

that an emergency services person can stick a key into

它是一把实体钥匙，还是一把数字钥匙？

and override the whole system.

谁可以使用它？

是应急服务人员吗？

But what happens when that system is AI-driven?

以及你怎么知道是否发生了这种情况？

Where does the key live?

所有这些将如何在电梯里展示给你？

Is it a physical key, is it a digital key?

Who gets to use it?

Is that the emergency services people?

我们问的第三个问题是， 我们如何看待保险问题。

And how would you know if that was happening?

How would all of that be manifested to you in the lift?

我们如何思考它的所有部分：

安全、保障、信任、 风险、责任、可管理性、

The third question we ask is how do we think about assurance.

可解释性、道德、 公共政策、法律、监管？

How do we think about all of its pieces:

safety, security, trust, risk, liability, manageability,

以及我们如何告诉你 这个系统是安全的，并且在运作？

explicability, ethics, public policy, law, regulation?

我们问的第四个问题是，

我们与这些人工智能驱动的系统的 相互作用点会是什么？

And how would we tell you that the system was safe and functioning?

我们会和他们交谈吗？

它们会和我们交谈吗， 它们会相互交谈吗？

The fourth question we ask

对于我们中的一些人来说， 我们一生熟知的一系列技术，

is what would be our interfaces with these AI-driven systems.

现在突然以完全不同的方式行事， 这将意味着什么？

Will we talk to them?

Will they talk to us, will they talk to each other?

电梯、汽车、电网、 交通灯、你家里的东西。

And what will it mean to have a series of technologies we've known,

for some of us, all our lives,

第五个问题是问这些 人工智能驱动的系统的

now suddenly behave in entirely different ways?

Lifts, cars, the electrical grid, traffic lights, things in your home.

有什么指标可以表明它们运行良好？

两百年的工业革命告诉我们，

The fifth question for these AI-driven systems:

考量一个好系统的两个最重要的方式

What will the indicators be to show that they're working well?

是生产力和效率。

Two hundred years of the industrial revolution

在21世纪，

你可能想把它扩展一点。

tells us that the two most important ways to think about a good system

这个系统是否可持续，

是否安全，是否负责任？

are productivity and efficiency.

谁能为我们判断这些事情？

In the 21st century,

you might want to expand that just a little bit.

系统的用户会想了解

Is the system sustainable,

这些东西是如何被监管、管理和建设的。

is it safe, is it responsible?

Who gets to judge those things for us?

还有最后一个，也许是最关键的问题，

Users of the systems would want to understand

你需要问这些新的人工智能系统。

how these things are regulated, managed and built.

它的意图是什么？

And then there's the final, perhaps most critical question

这个系统的设计目的是什么，

谁说这是一个好主意？

that you need to ask of these new AI systems.

或者换个说法，

这个系统正在构建的世界是什么？

What's its intent?

What's the system designed to do

这个世界是如何被想象出来的，

它与我们今天生活的世界有什么关系？

and who said that was a good idea?

Or put another way,

what is the world that this system is building,

谁能成为这一对话的一部分？

谁来阐述它？

how is that world imagined,

它是如何被构思和想象的？

and what is its relationship to the world we live in today?

这些问题没有简单的答案。

Who gets to be part of that conversation?

Who gets to articulate it?

相反，它们框定了什么是可能的，

How does it get framed and imagined?

以及我们需要想象、设计、 建造、监管甚至停止使用什么。

There are no simple answers to these questions.

它们为我们指出正确的方向，

Instead, they frame what's possible

帮助我们走上建立新的工程分支的道路。

and what we need to imagine,

design, build, regulate and even decommission.

但光有关键问题还不够。

They point us in the right directions

你还需要一种将所有这些问题 结合起来的方法。

and help us on a path to establish a new branch of engineering.

But critical questions aren't enough.

对我们研究所来说，

我们感兴趣如何将人工智能 作为一个系统来思考，

You also need a way of holding all those questions together.

我们感兴趣在哪里和如何 划定这个系统的边界。

For us at the Institute,

we're also really interested in how to think about AI as a system,

这些感觉是现在特别重要的事情。

在这里，我们受到早在 1940年代开始的工作的影响。

and where and how to draw the boundaries of that system.

And those feel like especially important things right now.

1944年，人类学家格雷戈里·贝特森(Gregory Bateson) 和玛格丽特·米德 (Margaret Mead)

Here, we're influenced by the work that was started way back in the 1940s.

与数学家诺伯特·维纳 (Norbert Wiener) 一起召开了一系列对话，

这些对话后来被称为 “梅西控制论会议”。

In 1944, along with anthropologists Gregory Bateson and Margaret Mead,

最终，在1946年至1953年期间，

mathematician Norbert Wiener convened a series of conversations

在控制论的支持下举行了十次会议。

that would become known as the Macy Conferences on Cybernetics.

正如诺伯特·维纳所定义的那样，

Ultimately, between 1946 and 1953,

控制论试图 “开发一种语言和技术，

ten conferences were held under the banner of cybernetics.

使我们能够真正解决先进计算技术中的

As defined by Norbert Wiener,

cybernetics sought to "develop a language and techniques

控制和通信问题”。

that will enable us to indeed attack the problem of control and communication

控制论令人信服地认为，

我们必须思考人类、计算机 和更广泛的生态世界之间的关系。

in advanced computing technologies."

Cybernetics argued persuasively

必须把它们作为一个整体的系统来考虑。

that one had to think about the relationship

梅西会议的参与者关注头脑如何工作，

between humans, computers

and the broader ecological world.

关注智能和学习，

You had to think about them as a holistic system.

以及技术在我们未来的作用。

Participants in the Macy Conferences were concerned with how the mind worked,

可悲的是，以梅西会议为开端的对话

往往被遗忘，当人们谈论人工智能时。

with ideas about intelligence and learning,

and about the role of technology in our future.

但对我来说，在这里有一些 真正重要的东西需要重申，

Sadly, the conversations that started with the Macy Conference

那就是关于一个必须适应文化、 技术和环境的系统的想法。

are often forgotten when the talk is about AI.

But for me, there's something really important to reclaim here

在研究所，这种系统思维是 我们工作的核心。

about the idea of a system that has to accommodate culture,

在过去的三年里，

technology and the environment.

一大批了不起的人加入了 我在这里的疯狂旅程，从事这项工作。

At the Institute, that sort of systems thinking is core to our work.

我们的员工包括人类学家、

Over the last three years,

系统和环境工程师、计算机科学家，

a whole collection of amazing people have joined me here

on this crazy journey to do this work.

以及一位核物理学家、

Our staff includes anthropologists,

一位获奖的摄影记者，

还有至少一位政策和标准专家。

systems and environmental engineers, and computer scientists

这是个令人振奋的组合。

as well as a nuclear physicist,

经验和专业知识的范围是强大的，

an award-winning photo journalist,

冲突和挑战也是如此。

and at least one policy and standards expert.

作为一个多元化的组织，需要不断地找到

It's a heady mix.

与他人对话的方法，

And the range of experience and expertise is powerful,

并在冲突中稍作停留。

as are the conflicts and the challenges.

Being diverse requires a constant willingness

我们也很早就意识到，

to find ways to hold people in conversation.

要建立一种新的做事方式，

就需要承诺让其他人 与我们一起踏上同样的旅程。

And to dwell just a little bit with the conflict.

We also worked out early

因此，我们很快打开了教育项目的大门，

that the way to build a new way of doing things

我们在2018年推出了 我们的第一个硕士项目。

would require a commitment to bringing others along on that same journey with us.

从那时起，我们已经有两批硕士生

So we opened our doors to an education program very quickly,

和一批博士生。

and we launched our first master's program in 2018.

我们的学生来自世界各地，

来自生活的各个角落。

Since then, we've had two cohorts of master's students

澳大利亚、新西兰、尼日利亚、尼泊尔、

and one cohort of PhD students.

墨西哥、印度、美国。

Our students come from all over the world

而且他们的年龄从23岁到60岁不等。

and all over life.

Australia, New Zealand, Nigeria, Nepal,

他们有不同的背景，包括数学和音乐、

Mexico, India, the United States.

政策和表演、

系统和标准、

And they range in age from 23 to 60.

建筑和艺术。

They variously had backgrounds in maths and music,

在加入我们研究所之前，

他们经营公司，为政府工作，

policy and performance,

systems and standards,

在军队服役，在高中教书，

architecture and arts.

管理艺术组织。

Before they joined us at the Institute,

他们是冒险家，

they ran companies, they worked for government,

对彼此和对建立新事物都有责任感。

served in the army, taught high school,

and managed arts organizations.

真的，你还能要求什么呢？

They were adventurers

因为尽管我在硅谷呆了20年，

and committed to each other,

我知道关于孤独的发明家

and to building something new.

And really, what more could you ask for?

和英雄的旅程的故事，

我也知道现实。

Because although I've spent 20 years in Silicon Valley

它从来都不只是一个英雄的旅程。

它总是由一群有共同目标感的人组成，

and I know the stories about the lone inventor

and the hero's journey,

他们可以改变世界。

I also know the reality.

That it's never just a hero's journey.

那么，你从哪里开始呢？

It's always a collection of people who have a shared sense of purpose

嗯，我想你从你所站的地方开始。

对我来说，这意味着我想感谢

who can change the world.

我所站立的这片土地的传统主人。

So where do you start?

恩古那瓦和恩甘布利族人，

Well, I think you start where you stand.

这是他们的土地，

从未被割让，永远是神圣的。

And for me, that means I want to acknowledge

我向这个地方过去和 现在的长者们表示敬意。

the traditional owners of the land upon which I'm standing.

The Ngunnawal and Ngambri people,

我也感谢，我们当今能在 许多其他地方相聚。

this is their land,

never ceded, always sacred.

我也向所有这些地方的 传统主人和长者表示敬意。

And I pay my respects to the elders, past and present, of this place.

I also acknowledge that we're gathering today

能说出这些话，并详述它们的 含义和信号，对我来说意义重大。

in many other places,

and I pay my respects to the traditional owners and elders

并记住我们生活在一个 至少已被持续占领了6万年的国家。

of all those places too.

It means a lot to me to get to say those words

and to dwell on what they mean and signal.

原住民在这里建立了万物，

And to remember that we live in a country

他们建立了社会系统，他们建立了技术。

that has been continuously occupied for at least 60,000 years.

他们建立了管理这个地方的方法，

并在很长一段时间内杰出地管理它。

Aboriginal people built worlds here,

they built social systems, they built technologies.

作为澳大利亚人，我们中的任何一个人 站在舞台上的每一刻，

They built ways to manage this place

无论在这里，还是在国外，

and to manage it remarkably over a protracted period of time.

都带着一种特权和责任。

因为这段历史。

And every moment any one of us stands on a stage as Australians,

而且这不仅仅是一段历史。

它也是一系列极其丰富的资源、

here or abroad,

we carry with us a privilege and a responsibility

世界观和知识。

而且它应该贯穿于我们所有的骨子里，

because of that history.

And it's not just a history.

它应该是我们一直讲述的故事。

It's also an incredibly rich set of resources,

归根结底，它是关于以不同的方式思考，

worldviews and knowledge.

提出不同类型的问题，

And it should run through all of our bones

and it should be the story we always tell.

全面地看待世界和系统，

并找到其他想要与你一起前行的人。

Ultimately, it's about thinking differently,

asking different kinds of questions,

因为对我来说，

真正思考未来和等级的唯一方法

looking holistically at the world and the systems,

是始终以集体方式进行。

and finding other people who want to be on that journey with you.

因为对我来说，

Because for me,

人类共同参与的概念

the only way to actually think about the future and scale

是我们思考负责任的、安全的 和最终可持续的事物的方式之一。

is to always be doing it collectively.

And because for me,

the notion of humans in it together

谢谢。

is one of the ways we get to think about things

that are responsible, safe

and ultimately, sustainable.

Thank you.