Can We Feed Ourselves without Devouring the Planet? | George Monbiot | TED

翻译人员: jing lin

What's the worst thing we've ever done to the planet?

我们对地球所做的， 最是罪孽深重的事是什么？

The answer is tough to hear

答案让人难以接受，

and many people recoil from it

很多人对此退缩不已，

because it conflicts with some of our most cherished beliefs.

因为它与我们最珍视的一些信念 有正面冲突。

Farming.

答案是：农业。

Farming is the greatest cause of habitat destruction,

农业是栖息地被破坏、

the greatest cause of wildlife loss,

野生动物丧失

the world's greatest cause of extinction.

以及物种灭绝最大的元凶。

It's caused roughly 80 percent of the deforestation this century.

在本世纪， 农业造成大约 80% 的森林被毁。

Only 29 percent of the weight of birds on Earth

以重量计，地球上仅有 29% 的鸟类

consists of wild species.

属于野生物种。

And the rest are poultry.

其余都沦为了禽肉。

Just four percent of mammals, by weight, are wild.

同样以重量计， 哺乳动物中只有 4% 在野外生存，

36 percent is accounted for by humans,

36%被人类饲养食用，

and farmed animals make up the remaining 60 percent.

剩下的 60% 则是用于耕作。

Yes, look, we all need food and we all need farming.

是的，我们都需要食物， 也需要农业。

But that shouldn't blind us to the fact

但我们不应该对农业

that it's also among the world's foremost causes of climate breakdown,

是气候变化、水质污染 及空气污染最显著原因之一的事实

of water pollution, of air pollution.

视而不见。

But, perhaps most importantly,

或许最重要的是，

it's the foremost cause of land use.

农业是改变土地使用的首要原因。

Now I've come to see land

如今我已把土地问题视为

as perhaps the most important of all environmental questions.

众多环境问题中最重要的一项。

Every acre of land that we use for our own purposes

人类出于自己的目的 使用的每一亩土地

is an acre that can't support wild ecosystems,

都是不能支持野生生态系统的土地，

such as forests and wetlands and savannahs,

比如世界上大部分物种都依存的

on which the great majority of the world's species depend.

森林、沼泽与草原。

It's our use of land which, above all,

首先，正是我们使用土地的方式

is driving the sixth great extinction of species.

迫使世界往 第六次物种灭绝的道路上而去。

Now, there are some thrilling and world-changing solutions

对于这些巨大的危机，

to these great crises,

现在有一些令人鼓舞、 可以改变世界的解决方案，

and I'll be coming to those in just a minute.

这些我都即将悉心解说。

I mean, some of them are mind-blowing

有一部分会十分震撼，

and have the potential to solve several problems at the same time.

并有着解决多个问题的潜力。

But in order to understand them and the need for them,

但为了了解它们本身 以及我们为何需要它们，

first, we need to understand the scope and direction

我们必须先明白全球

of the global food system.

粮食系统的规模与发展方向。

We rail against urban sprawl, and rightly so.

我们都反对城市扩张， 这当然很正确，

But all our homes and businesses and infrastructure

但我们所有人的家、 办公场所与城市基础设施

occupy just one percent of the planet's land.

加起来只占了地球上 1% 的土地。

Agricultural sprawl is a far greater ecological threat.

农业扩张造成了大得多的生态威胁。

Farming occupies 38 percent of the planet's land.

农业耕作占用了 地球上 38% 的土地。

Most of the rest, incidentally, is protected areas,

其余土地中的大部分是受保护地区：

forests, deserts, ice and mountains.

森林、沙漠、冰川与山脉。

So we have this vast amount of land being occupied.

我们有太多的土地被占用了。

A lot of people complain about intensive farming

很多人抱怨集约式农业，

and the harm that it does to us and our world,

以及它对人类和世界的危害。

and this harm is real.

农业的危害是真实存在的，

But so is the harm caused by extensive farming,

但这个危害更多 是由粗放式农业造成的。

which means using more land to produce a given amount of food.

这意味着用更多的土地 只生产一定量的食物。

Now, I know some of you will find this a shocking statement,

我知道你们有一些人会觉得 这是个令人震惊的说法。

but the most damaging of all farm products is pasture-fed meat,

但危害最大的农业产品就是畜牧业。

and that's because of the agricultural sprawl it causes.

因为它导致了农业区域的扩张。

You remember that 38 percent of land used by farming?

你还记得农业占用的38%的土地吗？

Well, only 12 percent of the land is covered by crops.

这其中只有12%种植玉米，

The remaining 26 percent is used for pasture,

而有26%用于放牧，

mostly for cattle, sheep and goats.

大多是牛、绵羊和山羊。

Our environmental crisis is not driven by intensive farming

我们的环境危机不只由集约农业引起的，

or by extensive farming,

也不是只由粗放式农业引起的。

but by a disastrous combination of the two.

而是两者灾难性的结合。

The problem is not the adjective --

这个问题不是个形容词，

it's the noun.

它是个名词。

Farming itself is threatened

农业本身也被它导致的

by the environmental harm that it's contributed to,

环境问题所影响，

such as climate breakdown and soil depletion

例如气候恶化、土壤枯竭，

and the exhaustion of water supplies.

以及水资源短缺。

But there could be an even greater threat to our food supplies.

但对我们的食品供应来说， 有个更大的威胁。

It's possible to see the biggest threat that the global food system faces

全球粮食系统面临的最大威胁

as the global food system.

是全球粮食系统。

It's beginning to look a bit like the global financial system

它开始看起来有点像全球金融体系，

in the approach to 2008.

在接近2008年的时候。

Now for a long time, we thought we were beating hunger.

在很长一段时间， 我们以为我们正在战胜饥饿。

Between the 1960s and 2014, hunger was declining fairly steadily.

在1960年到2014年， 饥饿人群的数量正在稳步下降。

But then, in 2015, the trend began to turn,

但是到了2015年， 这个趋势开始转向，

and the number of chronically malnourished people began rising

而慢性营养不良患者的数量开始上升，

and has continued to rise ever since.

并且从此以后持续上升。

Astoundingly, that rise began just as world food prices were falling.

令人震惊的是，上述正值 世界粮食价格开始下降。

So what's going on?

所以，到底发生了什么？

Well, the world food system, like global finance,

正如全球金融系统一样， 世界粮食系统

is a complex system,

是一个复杂的系统。

and complex systems behave in counterintuitive ways.

这个复杂系统的运行方式是反直觉的。

They're resilient under certain conditions,

它们在某些条件下具有弹性，

because there’s weird self-organizing dynamics [to] stabilize them.

因为有一种奇特的自组织方式 让系统维持动态稳定。

But if they're pushed by an extreme amount of stress,

但是如果他们被极端的压力所推动，

then those same self-organizing dynamics

同样是这个动态的自组织方式

can start transmitting shocks across the network.

就会开始在全球网络中 传输受到的冲击。

And beyond a certain point,

而且，超过某一个点之后，

they can tip the whole network past its critical threshold,

可以使整个网络超过其临界阈值。

whereupon the system collapses, suddenly and unstoppably.

然后这个系统就会突然、 无法遏制地崩溃。

Now over the past few years,

在过去的几年中，

the crucial elements of systemic resilience

我们称之为冗余、模块化、 断路器和备份系统

that we call redundancy, modularity, circuit breakers and backup systems

的系统弹性的关键要素

have been stripped out by corporate strategies.

已经逐一被企业战略剥离。

On one estimate, just four companies now control

根据一项估计，

90 percent of the global grain trade.

90%的全球粮食贸易 已经被四家公司控制。

Only four crops, which are wheat, rice, corn and soy,

小麦、大米、玉米和大豆这四种作物

account for almost 60 percent of the calories that farmers produce.

就占了农产品的热量总额的近60%。

And the production for export of those crops

这些粮食的出口

has become highly concentrated in a handful of nations,

已经高度集中于一小部分国家，

including Russia and Ukraine.

包括俄罗斯和乌克兰。

Nations have polarized into superexporters and superimporters,

国家间两极分化成 粮食的超级出口国和超级进口国。

and much of this trade passes through vulnerable choke points,

大部分贸易还要通过脆弱的咽喉地带，

such as the Turkish Straits

例如土耳其海峡、

and the Suez and Panama Canals.

苏伊士运河和巴拿马运河。

Had the blockage of the Suez Canal in 2021 --

你一定记得，2021年苏伊士运河

by that giant container ship, you remember that --

被巨型集装箱船堵塞的事。

had that coincided with the closure of the Turkish Straits in 2022

2022年，土耳其海峡

by the war in Ukraine,

因为乌克兰战争无法通行。

then the food chain for hundreds of millions of people

供应几亿人的食品供应链

might have snapped.

可能就此中断。

The reason why hunger is rising seems to be that,

受饥人群的数量为什么上升，

as the food system has lost its resilience,

正是食品系统开始失去它的弹性。

more and more contagious shocks are being transmitted across it.

越来越多的冲击正在通过它 不断传染、传输。

Now, we in the rich nations,

我们身在富裕的国家，

we scarcely noticed the shocks being caused by speculative surges

很少注意到由投机激增、出口禁令、

and export bans and bottlenecking and other issues like that,

瓶颈出现以及其他类似的问题 引起的震荡，

until 2020, when COVID began to make us more aware

直到2020年， 新冠病毒开始让我们越来越意识到

of some of the issues we were facing.

我们正在面临的问题。

But those shocks, for years, have been hitting the poorer nations

但是，多年来，在货币疲软的情况下，

with weak currencies,

这些震荡已经侵袭了 相对穷困的国家，

which stand at the end of the queue.

因为这些国家处于链条的最末端。

And what they saw is that local food prices can surge

他们看到的是， 在全球粮食价格保持较低的同时，

even as global prices remain low.

当地的粮食价格飙升。

Now, these problems are likely only to become worse

现在，这些问题只可能变得更糟，

as the system becomes less stable

因为粮食系统变得更加不稳定，

and is possibly approaching a critical threshold.

它可能正在靠近一个临界阈值。

Governments prevented the banks from collapsing

政府想要阻止银行系统崩溃，

by bailing them out with future money.

可以用未来的金钱来救助。

But you can't bail out the food system with future food.

但是你无法用未来的食物 救助食品系统。

So we face two enormous issues here.

我们面临着两个巨大的问题，

One, the environmental harm caused by the food system,

一个，是食品系统导致的环境问题；

and secondly, the possibility that the system itself could collapse.

另一个，是这个系统本身崩溃的可能性。

Might there be a solution,

那是否有一个解决方法，

a solution to both these problems?

可以同时解决两个问题？

Can we find a way of feeding the world without devouring the planet?

我们能够找到一个喂饱全人类 但是不破坏地球的方式吗？

Well, there are some fascinating new techniques for growing crops

农民和科学家们已经发展出一些

being developed by farmers and scientists.

关于作物生长令人惊异的新技术。

I'm especially interested in the potential of perennial grain crops,

我对多年生粮食作物的潜力尤其感兴趣，

which are being developed in particular by The Land Institute in Salina, Kansas.

特别是由堪萨斯州萨利纳的土地 研究所开发的新技术。

If we can grow grain on plants that stay in the soil from year to year,

如果我们能够种出在土壤中 年复一年生长的谷物，

we can greatly reduce the damage to the soil caused by plowing

我们可以大大减少 犁地对土壤造成的损害，

and the amount of pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers,

农药、 除草剂、肥料的使用量，

irrigation required to establish new crops.

以及种植新作物需要的大量灌溉。

Other farmers are finding really amazing ways

还有一些农民发现了神奇的方法，

of boosting their yields without using either fertilizers or manure.

在不使用其他化肥和肥料的情况下， 增加土地的产量。

Crucial as all these developments are,

尽管这些发展都至关重要，

they can only be partial solutions to the issues we face.

他们也只能解决一部分我们面临的问题。

Because perhaps our most urgent task

我们最紧迫的任务

is replacing the protein-rich and fat-rich foods

是取代我们富含蛋白质和脂肪的食物。

that we currently obtain from animals

它们通常从动物体中获得，

and from crops like soy and oil palm.

或者从大豆和油棕等作物中获得。

If the biggest problem that farming is causing

如果农业导致的最大问题是

is the amount of land it uses,

土地被占用的数量，

then perhaps the biggest environmental solution

那可能解决环境问题 最大的解决方案就是

is shifting food production off the land and into the factory.

将食品生产从土地上转移到工厂里。

Now, I realize that's another shocking statement.

我知道，这是另一个令人震惊的说法。

Many people hate the idea of food being produced in factories,

很多人不喜欢从工厂里生产出来的食品，

forgetting, somewhat, that almost all the food we eat

但却忘记了，我们所吃的所有食物，

passes through a factory at some point in its production.

一定程度上、在某些环节上 都需要通过工厂生产。

In fact, the great majority of the animals we eat are factory farmed.

实际上，我们吃的大多数动物 都是在工厂养殖的。

Well, in Helsinki, Finland, I visited a company called Solar Foods,

在芬兰的赫尔辛基， 我参观了一家名为“太阳食品”的公司，

which is using a technique called precision fermentation

他们使用一种“精准发酵”技术，

to create a protein-rich flour

用食用氢气的土壤细菌

from a soil bacterium that eats hydrogen.

制造富含蛋白质的面粉。

It requires no farm products at all.

它根本不需要农作物。

I was the first person outside the lab to eat a pancake made from this flour.

我是第一个在实验室以外 吃这种面粉做的煎饼的人。

A small flip for man.

这是人类的一个小小的飞跃。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Amazingly, this pancake tasted just like a pancake.

这个煎饼吃起来真的就是煎饼的味道：

Rich and mellow and filling.

口味丰富醇厚、饱满。

But this isn't just about making pancakes.

但我想说的不仅仅是做煎饼。

These flours, which have a protein content of about 65 percent,

这种面粉的蛋白质含量达到65%，

could form the basis of much better alternatives --

可以作为一个更便宜、更健康的替代品，

cheaper alternatives, healthier alternatives -- to the animal products

替代动物类食品，

and some of the plants, like soy and coconut and oil palm,

以及一些我们常吃的植物，

that we currently eat.

如大豆、椰子和油棕。

In fact, they could trigger a whole new cuisine,

实际上，它们可以激发 一整个全新的烹调体系，

a shift as profound as the neolithic revolution.

一个与新石器时代革命一样深刻的转变。

Most importantly,

更重要的是，

they require just a tiny fraction of the land

他们只需要一点点土地、

and a tiny amount of the water and fertilizer

一点点水与肥料，

needed to raise either crops or animals.

如果与种植作物以及饲养动物对比的话。

And this is why I see precision fermentation

这就是为什么我认为精准发酵

as perhaps the most important environmental technology ever developed.

可能是迄今为止最重要的环境技术。

It could be all that stands between us and environmental collapse.

唯有它可以阻止环境崩溃。

Precision fermentation is a refined form of brewing,

精准发酵是一种精炼的酿造形式，

which was first developed by NASA in the 1960s.

它最早是由NASA在1960年代发明的。

But it's not rocket science.

但它不是特别复杂的东西。

It actually requires no major technological breakthrough.

它不需要重大的技术突破。

The bacteria being multiplied by Solar Foods

在“太阳食品”公司里被繁殖的细菌

use hydrogen in similar ways to how plants use sunlight.

它使用氢气的方式就像植物使用阳光。

But this process, powered ultimately by solar energy --

这个使用电力制造氢气的过程

using the electricity to make the hydrogen --

最终也是由太阳提供动力，

is far more efficient than photosynthesis.

但它比光合作用效率高得多。

Are you horrified by the idea of eating bacteria?

你被吃细菌的想法吓到了吗？

(Laughs)

（笑）

I'm sure some of you are.

我敢肯定，有一部分人会被吓到的。

Well, if so, I've got bad news for you.

如果是这样，我有一个坏消息要告诉你。

You eat them with every meal.

你每顿饭都在吃细菌。

In fact, some of our food, like cheese and yogurt,

实际上，一些食物，例如奶酪和酸奶，

is deliberately inoculated with live bacteria.

要故意接种活菌。

If you're still disgusted by the idea of eating microbes,

如果你仍然对于吃微生物感到反胃，

could I invite you to visit a factory pig or factory chicken farm?

我可以邀请你 去参观一个生猪或活鸡的养殖场、

And the slaughterhouse,

或者是杀死并处理它自己养殖的动物的

which kills and processes the animals that it raises?

屠宰场吗？

That's what disgusting looks like.

那才是令人反胃的存在。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So we have this extraordinary potential.

我们已经拥有这个非凡的潜能。

If we can replace the protein

如果可以把

which we currently obtain from the flesh and secretions of animals

从动物的肉和分泌物中获得的蛋白质

with protein from single-celled organisms,

替换成从单细胞生物体中获得的蛋白质，

we could release vast tracts of the planet from our impacts,

我们可以大大地减轻我们对地球的影响，

restoring forests and salt marshes

可以恢复森林和盐沼、

and freshwater marshes and mangroves, and steppes and savannahs

淡水沼泽和红树林、 草原和大草原、

and kelp forests and seafloors.

以及海带森林和海底世界。

This great rewilding could stop the sixth great extinction in its tracks.

这个伟大的重新野化 可以阻止第六次物种灭绝。

It could save Earth's systems,

它会拯救地球的生态系统，

it could draw down vast amounts of carbon dioxide

减少大量二氧化碳

from the atmosphere.

排放到大气中。

Moreover, it could be the only chance some countries have

而且，这也是一些国家

of breaking their dangerous dependency on exports from distant places.

摆脱对遥远地区出口的严重依赖的唯一机会。

A lot of the countries which are most at risk of mass starvation,

很多正在遭受大面积饥荒的国家

they don't have enough fertile land and water

没有足够的水和肥料

to produce the food they need from farming,

来满足农业的生产，

but they have plenty of something else --

但他们拥有充足的其他东西——

sunlight,

阳光。

which is what you need to sustain food production based on hydrogen.

而这就是基于氢气的食物生产所需要的东西。

Now, these technologies are yet to be fully commercialized,

目前，这些技术还未被完全商业化，

but companies like Solar Foods have applied for permission

但类似“太阳食品”这样的公司 已经获得批准

to release their products onto the market.

可以在市场上投放他们的产品。

I hope that when they do,

我希望当他们这么做的时候，

innovative chefs will step up to design the new diet,

有创新性的厨师 可以出来设计全新的菜谱，

the new cuisine that the technology promises.

开创全新的烹调方式。

And I would love to see a microbial brewery in every town,

我将很愿意看到 每个村镇都有微生物啤酒厂，

run by small local companies,

它们由当地的小公司经营，

producing protein-rich foods tailored to local markets.

生产更适合当地的富含蛋白质的食物。

For that to happen,

为了这些能够发生，

we have to stop the disastrous corporate concentration

我们应该停止在其余食品供应链上

we've seen in the rest of the food chain.

灾难性的公司集中度。

Intellectual property rights should be weak,

知识产权应该弱化，

and antitrust laws should be strong.

反垄断法应该更强大。

We have the possibility here

现在，我们拥有

of solving two of our great existential crises

用同一个策略解决

with the same strategy.

我们面临的两个巨大生存危机的机会。

By shifting the production of protein-rich food

就是将富含蛋白质的食品的生产场所

off the farm, and into the factory,

从农田转移到工厂。

we could help solve these great predicaments

我们也能帮助解决

of hunger and extinction.

饥饿和物种灭绝的困境。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Cheers and applause)

（掌声和欢呼）