Can We Feed Ourselves without Devouring the Planet? | George Monbiot | TED

譯者: 麗玲 辛 審譯者: Zoe Walmsley

What's the worst thing we've ever done to the planet?

我們對地球所造成最大的傷害是什麼？

The answer is tough to hear

答案或許讓人難以接受，

and many people recoil from it

也讓許多人想迴避，

because it conflicts with some of our most cherished beliefs.

因為它與我們最珍視的信念衝突──

Farming.

農業。

Farming is the greatest cause of habitat destruction,

農業是破壞生態環境的主因，

the greatest cause of wildlife loss,

是野生動物絕種的主要原因，

the world's greatest cause of extinction.

也是世界滅絕的主因。

It's caused roughly 80 percent of the deforestation this century.

本世紀將近 80% 的森林砍伐是因為農業。

Only 29 percent of the weight of birds on Earth

地球上所有的鳥類中

只有 29% 是野生物種，

consists of wild species.

And the rest are poultry.

其餘皆是家禽。

Just four percent of mammals, by weight, are wild.

按重量計算，哺乳動物中 只有 4% 是野生動物，

36 percent is accounted for by humans,

36% 是人類，

and farmed animals make up the remaining 60 percent.

剩下的 60% 則是養殖動物。

Yes, look, we all need food and we all need farming.

是的，我們都需要食物， 我們都需要農業。

But that shouldn't blind us to the fact

可是我們不應罔顧現實，

that it's also among the world's foremost causes of climate breakdown,

農業是導致世界氣候崩潰、

of water pollution, of air pollution.

水污染和空氣污染的重大主因。

But, perhaps most importantly,

而且，最重要的是，

it's the foremost cause of land use.

農業也是土地開發的首要原因。

Now I've come to see land

我最終看清楚了，

as perhaps the most important of all environmental questions.

土地或許是所有環境問題中最重大的。

Every acre of land that we use for our own purposes

我們每多開發一畝地，

is an acre that can't support wild ecosystems,

野生生態系統就少一畝地，

such as forests and wetlands and savannahs,

無論是森林、濕地和熱帶草原，

on which the great majority of the world's species depend.

世界上絕大多數物種無不賴以為生。

It's our use of land which, above all,

講到底，土地的開發正是讓我們走向

is driving the sixth great extinction of species.

第六次物種大滅絕的主因。

Now, there are some thrilling and world-changing solutions

目前，面對這些重大危機，

已經出現扭轉局面的解決方案，

to these great crises,

and I'll be coming to those in just a minute.

我等等就會談到。

I mean, some of them are mind-blowing

其中一些方案很不可思議，

and have the potential to solve several problems at the same time.

而且可能同時解決多個問題。

But in order to understand them and the need for them,

在理解這些方案及其用處之前，

first, we need to understand the scope and direction

我們得先弄清楚 全球糧食系統的規模和方向。

of the global food system.

We rail against urban sprawl, and rightly so.

我們反對城市擴張，這點絕對正確。

But all our homes and businesses and infrastructure

可是所有的住宅、企業和基礎設施

occupy just one percent of the planet's land.

只佔全球土地的百分之一。

Agricultural sprawl is a far greater ecological threat.

農業的擴張才是更大的生態威脅，

Farming occupies 38 percent of the planet's land.

因為農業用地佔了 全球土地的 38%。

Most of the rest, incidentally, is protected areas,

剩下的絕大部分是保護區、

forests, deserts, ice and mountains.

森林、沙漠、冰原和山脈。

So we have this vast amount of land being occupied.

所以我們佔用了那麼多土地。

A lot of people complain about intensive farming

許多人不滿工業化農業，

and the harm that it does to us and our world,

及其對人類和世界造成的危害，

and this harm is real.

而這種危害是真實存在的。

But so is the harm caused by extensive farming,

但粗放農業也一樣造成危害，

which means using more land to produce a given amount of food.

因為要達到相同的產量， 要使用的土地面積更大。

Now, I know some of you will find this a shocking statement,

我知道你們有些人會覺得 這聽起來很嚇人，

but the most damaging of all farm products is pasture-fed meat,

可是農產品中破壞性最高的 就是放牧肉品，

and that's because of the agricultural sprawl it causes.

原因正是來自連帶的農業擴張。

You remember that 38 percent of land used by farming?

記得剛說的全球有 38% 的土地用在農業嗎？

Well, only 12 percent of the land is covered by crops.

其實，只有 12% 的 土地上有農作物，

The remaining 26 percent is used for pasture,

剩下的 26% 則用於畜牧，

mostly for cattle, sheep and goats.

大多是養殖牛、綿羊和山羊。

Our environmental crisis is not driven by intensive farming

我們的環境危機不是由工業化農業

or by extensive farming,

或粗放農業造成的，

but by a disastrous combination of the two.

而是這兩者災難性的結合所造成的。

The problem is not the adjective --

問題不在於形容詞──

it's the noun.

而是名詞。

Farming itself is threatened

農業本身也面臨

by the environmental harm that it's contributed to,

由其造成的環境危害的威脅，

such as climate breakdown and soil depletion

例如氣候崩潰、 土壤貧瘠和供水枯竭等，

and the exhaustion of water supplies.

But there could be an even greater threat to our food supplies.

但是我們的糧食供應 可能面臨更大的威脅。

It's possible to see the biggest threat that the global food system faces

我們可能即將目睹

as the global food system.

全球糧食系統史上最大的威脅，

It's beginning to look a bit like the global financial system

我們開始看到 2008 年 全球金融體系出問題前的樣子。

in the approach to 2008.

Now for a long time, we thought we were beating hunger.

長久以來，我們以為已戰勝飢餓。

Between the 1960s and 2014, hunger was declining fairly steadily.

從 1960 年代到 2014， 飢荒指數穩緩下降。

But then, in 2015, the trend began to turn,

可是，2015 年，趨勢開始轉變，

and the number of chronically malnourished people began rising

長期營養不良的人數開始上升，

and has continued to rise ever since.

並且一直持續增加。

Astoundingly, that rise began just as world food prices were falling.

令人震驚的是，上升趨勢開始時， 世界食品價格卻正下跌。

So what's going on?

發生了甚麼事？

Well, the world food system, like global finance,

世界糧食系統就像全球金融一樣，

is a complex system,

是一個複雜系統，

and complex systems behave in counterintuitive ways.

而複雜系統的表現往往與預期相反。

They're resilient under certain conditions,

他們在某些條件下頗有彈性，

because there’s weird self-organizing dynamics [to] stabilize them.

因為具有某種特別的 自我組織量能讓系統回復穩定。

但是，一旦遭受到極大的外來壓力時，

But if they're pushed by an extreme amount of stress,

then those same self-organizing dynamics

那麼這些自我組織量能

can start transmitting shocks across the network.

反而會在整個系統網絡中產生震盪，

And beyond a certain point,

震盪到達某個程度後，

they can tip the whole network past its critical threshold,

一旦超過整個系統的臨界值，

whereupon the system collapses, suddenly and unstoppably.

後果就是突然的、無法挽回的崩潰。

Now over the past few years,

過去幾年來，

the crucial elements of systemic resilience

糧食系統中原有的關鍵彈性要素──

that we call redundancy, modularity, circuit breakers and backup systems

冗餘、模組化、保險機制和備份系統，

have been stripped out by corporate strategies.

已經從企業䇿略中被刪除。

On one estimate, just four companies now control

有項統計顯示，全球穀物貿易 有 90% 掌握在四家公司手裡。

90 percent of the global grain trade.

Only four crops, which are wheat, rice, corn and soy,

僅僅是小麥、米、玉米 和大豆這四種作物

account for almost 60 percent of the calories that farmers produce.

佔農作卡路里將近 60% 的產能。

And the production for export of those crops

而這些農作物的生產外銷

has become highly concentrated in a handful of nations,

高度集中在少數幾個國家，

including Russia and Ukraine.

包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭。

Nations have polarized into superexporters and superimporters,

世界各國已經兩極化， 變成超級出超國或超級入超國，

and much of this trade passes through vulnerable choke points,

而絕大部分的貿易得經過 脆弱的咽喉要道，

such as the Turkish Straits

例如土耳其海峽、蘇伊士運河 和巴拿馬運河。

and the Suez and Panama Canals.

Had the blockage of the Suez Canal in 2021 --

你還記得蘇伊士運河在 2021 年

by that giant container ship, you remember that --

被那艘巨型貨輪阻斷航道的事故？

had that coincided with the closure of the Turkish Straits in 2022

如果那個事件發生在 2022 年烏俄戰爭開始後，

土耳其海峽關閉同時發生的話，

by the war in Ukraine,

then the food chain for hundreds of millions of people

供應全球數億人口的 糧食供給鏈可能就此斷裂。

might have snapped.

The reason why hunger is rising seems to be that,

飢餓指數上升的原因似乎是

as the food system has lost its resilience,

糧食系統失去彈性，

more and more contagious shocks are being transmitted across it.

越來越多的震盪在系統中波動傳播。

Now, we in the rich nations,

身處富裕國家的我們

we scarcely noticed the shocks being caused by speculative surges

幾乎沒有注意到投機激增、

and export bans and bottlenecking and other issues like that,

出口禁令、運輸瓶頸 等等問題所造成的衝擊，

until 2020, when COVID began to make us more aware

直到 2020 年，出現新冠肺炎，

我們才驚覺人類所面臨的某些問題。

of some of the issues we were facing.

But those shocks, for years, have been hitting the poorer nations

但那些衝擊多年以來 始終不斷地打擊貧窮國家，

他們的貨幣排名全球貨幣的末端。

with weak currencies,

which stand at the end of the queue.

And what they saw is that local food prices can surge

他們發現即使全球價格維持在低點，

even as global prices remain low.

自己國內的糧食價格卻能飆升。

Now, these problems are likely only to become worse

現在這些狀況看起來只會變得更糟，

as the system becomes less stable

因為隨著系統變得更不穩定，

and is possibly approaching a critical threshold.

更可能趨近臨界值。

Governments prevented the banks from collapsing

政府為了防止銀行倒閉，

by bailing them out with future money.

印鈔、動用未來準備金為銀行紓困，

But you can't bail out the food system with future food.

可是糧食系統無法提前用 尚未生產的糧食來挽救。

So we face two enormous issues here.

以上就是我們面臨的兩個重大議題：

One, the environmental harm caused by the food system,

一是糧食系統造成的環境危害，

and secondly, the possibility that the system itself could collapse.

二是糧食系統本身崩潰的可能性。

Might there be a solution,

是否有甚麼解決方案

a solution to both these problems?

能同時解決這兩個問題？

Can we find a way of feeding the world without devouring the planet?

有沒有辦法餵飽全世界， 卻不吃垮地球？

Well, there are some fascinating new techniques for growing crops

有的，現在有些農作物種植的新技術

being developed by farmers and scientists.

正由農民和科學家們共同投入研發。

I'm especially interested in the potential of perennial grain crops,

我最感興趣的是 多年生穀物的發展潛力，

which are being developed in particular by The Land Institute in Salina, Kansas.

堪薩斯州薩利納的土地研究所 正潛心開發這類作物。

If we can grow grain on plants that stay in the soil from year to year,

如果有辦法只栽種一次， 卻能年復一年地收割，

we can greatly reduce the damage to the soil caused by plowing

我們就能大幅減少 因耕作而產生的對土壤的破壞，

and the amount of pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers,

也減少殺蟲劑、除草劑、肥料用量，

irrigation required to establish new crops.

及新作物所需的灌溉用水。

Other farmers are finding really amazing ways

還有些農民正在想辦法提高產量，

of boosting their yields without using either fertilizers or manure.

卻不需使用化肥或糞肥等方法。

Crucial as all these developments are,

所有這類的研發都很關鍵，

they can only be partial solutions to the issues we face.

卻只能解決部份我們所面臨的問題。

Because perhaps our most urgent task

因為，或許最緊迫的任務

is replacing the protein-rich and fat-rich foods

是找到富含蛋白質和脂肪的替代品，

that we currently obtain from animals

取代目前的來源── 動物、大豆、棕櫚油等作物。

and from crops like soy and oil palm.

If the biggest problem that farming is causing

如果農業所造成的最大問題 來自於土地的使用量，

is the amount of land it uses,

then perhaps the biggest environmental solution

那麼解決環境問題的最好方案可能是

is shifting food production off the land and into the factory.

將糧食的生產從土地轉移到工廠。

Now, I realize that's another shocking statement.

嗯，我知道這個說法有點駭人聽聞。

Many people hate the idea of food being produced in factories,

許多人厭惡工業化生產食物的想法，

forgetting, somewhat, that almost all the food we eat

卻忘記了有絕大部分我們所消耗的食物

passes through a factory at some point in its production.

都在某個階段中經過工廠的製程。

In fact, the great majority of the animals we eat are factory farmed.

事實上，我們所吃的絕大多數 動物肉類都是工廠養殖的。

Well, in Helsinki, Finland, I visited a company called Solar Foods,

我參觀過位於芬蘭 赫爾辛基的「陽光食物」，

which is using a technique called precision fermentation

該公司使用一種「精確發酵」的技術，

to create a protein-rich flour

從某種消耗氫的土壤細菌 製造出富含蛋白質的麵粉。

from a soil bacterium that eats hydrogen.

It requires no farm products at all.

整個過程沒有用上任何農作物。

I was the first person outside the lab to eat a pancake made from this flour.

我是第一個該實驗室招待試吃 以此麵粉做成的鬆餅的人。

A small flip for man.

可以說這是人類的一個小翻轉？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Amazingly, this pancake tasted just like a pancake.

神奇的是，這個鬆餅 吃起來就像一般的鬆餅。

Rich and mellow and filling.

香濃、醇厚、有飽足感。

But this isn't just about making pancakes.

可是重點不在於它能拿來做鬆餅。

These flours, which have a protein content of about 65 percent,

因為那些麵粉的 蛋白質含量約 65%，

could form the basis of much better alternatives --

能成為更好的成份替代品──

cheaper alternatives, healthier alternatives -- to the animal products

因為它更便宜、更健康──

與其他目前的肉類和植物相比── 如大豆、椰子和棕櫚油等。

and some of the plants, like soy and coconut and oil palm,

that we currently eat.

In fact, they could trigger a whole new cuisine,

事實上，它們也能發展出全新的美食，

a shift as profound as the neolithic revolution.

帶來新石器時代革命一樣深刻的轉變。

Most importantly,

最重要的是，

they require just a tiny fraction of the land

它們只需要極少的土地，

and a tiny amount of the water and fertilizer

以及少量的水和肥料──

needed to raise either crops or animals.

與農作物或畜牧相比的話。

And this is why I see precision fermentation

這就是為什麼我認為精確發酵

as perhaps the most important environmental technology ever developed.

也許是有史以來最重要的環保科技，

It could be all that stands between us and environmental collapse.

或許也是挽救人類 避免環境崩潰的唯一方法。

Precision fermentation is a refined form of brewing,

精密發酵就像是一種精釀，

which was first developed by NASA in the 1960s.

最早是由美國太空總署 於 1960 年代開發。

But it's not rocket science.

但其實不是多麼高深，

It actually requires no major technological breakthrough.

也不需要重大的創新技術。

The bacteria being multiplied by Solar Foods

「陽光食物」所繁殖的細菌 與氫結合的方式

use hydrogen in similar ways to how plants use sunlight.

在很多方面就很類似 植物與陽光的光合作用。

But this process, powered ultimately by solar energy --

但整個過程藉由太陽能去運作，

using the electricity to make the hydrogen --

同時利用電力去製造氫氣──

is far more efficient than photosynthesis.

遠比光合作用有效多了。

Are you horrified by the idea of eating bacteria?

你想到吃細菌就害怕嗎？

(Laughs)

（笑聲）

I'm sure some of you are.

我相信有些人會。

Well, if so, I've got bad news for you.

如果是的話，讓我告訴你，

You eat them with every meal.

其實你所吃的每頓飯都有細菌。

In fact, some of our food, like cheese and yogurt,

因為有些食物，如起司、優格，

is deliberately inoculated with live bacteria.

必須得借助活菌才能作出來。

If you're still disgusted by the idea of eating microbes,

如果你想到食用微生物就噁心的話，

could I invite you to visit a factory pig or factory chicken farm?

歡迎你去參觀工廠， 無論是養豬場或養雞場，

And the slaughterhouse,

甚至是屠宰場，

which kills and processes the animals that it raises?

那些養殖、屠殺、處理動物的地方。

That's what disgusting looks like.

那才是真的噁心。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So we have this extraordinary potential.

未來真的潛力非凡，

如果我們能將

If we can replace the protein

目前從動物產出的肉類和奶類的蛋白質，

which we currently obtain from the flesh and secretions of animals

with protein from single-celled organisms,

改以單細胞生物的蛋白質取代，

we could release vast tracts of the planet from our impacts,

就能讓將人類占用的 大片區域還給地球，

restoring forests and salt marshes

讓森林、鹽沼、淡水沼澤、紅樹林、

and freshwater marshes and mangroves, and steppes and savannahs

草原、熱帶草原、甚至 海帶森林和海底回復原貌。

and kelp forests and seafloors.

This great rewilding could stop the sixth great extinction in its tracks.

如此大規模的「還野」 或可避免第六次大滅絕的發生。

It could save Earth's systems,

或許也能拯救地球的生態，

it could draw down vast amounts of carbon dioxide

將大氣中的二氧化碳抽回。

from the atmosphere.

Moreover, it could be the only chance some countries have

此外，這也可能是某些國家擺脫

of breaking their dangerous dependency on exports from distant places.

從遙遠的他國進口依賴的唯一機會。

A lot of the countries which are most at risk of mass starvation,

許多面臨大規模飢荒的國家

they don't have enough fertile land and water

沒有足夠肥沃的土地和灌溉用水

to produce the food they need from farming,

來生產所需的農作物，

but they have plenty of something else --

但他們有許多其他資源──

sunlight,

例如，陽光，

which is what you need to sustain food production based on hydrogen.

倚靠氫氣的糧食生產少了陽光就不行。

Now, these technologies are yet to be fully commercialized,

現在，這些技術尚未完全商業化，

but companies like Solar Foods have applied for permission

但是已經有類似「陽光食物」的公司

申請將他們的產品上市。

to release their products onto the market.

I hope that when they do,

我希望那天到來時，

innovative chefs will step up to design the new diet,

會有許多廚師加入陣營，設計新食譜，

the new cuisine that the technology promises.

創造出科技性的全新美食。

And I would love to see a microbial brewery in every town,

我也想看到每個城鎮都有 自己的微生物精釀廠，

run by small local companies,

由當地企業經營，

producing protein-rich foods tailored to local markets.

生產迎合當地市場口味、 富含蛋白質的食品。

For that to happen,

為此，

we have to stop the disastrous corporate concentration

我們必須阻止糧食供應鏈 被少數企業控制的災難。

we've seen in the rest of the food chain.

Intellectual property rights should be weak,

知識產權應該被削弱，

and antitrust laws should be strong.

反壟斷法應該被加強。

We have the possibility here

我們現在有機會

of solving two of our great existential crises

用一個策略解決兩個重大的生存危機。

with the same strategy.

By shifting the production of protein-rich food

藉由將蛋白質食物的生產

off the farm, and into the factory,

從農場轉移到工廠，

we could help solve these great predicaments

我們有機會同時解決 飢餓和物種滅絕的兩大困境。

of hunger and extinction.

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Cheers and applause)

（歡呼和掌聲）