The Counterintuitive Psychology of Insurance | Orit Tykocinski | TED

Transcriber:

翻译人员: suya f. 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

Hello, everyone.

大家好，

My name is Orit, yes.

我叫奥里特，

And I study insurance.

我是学保险的。

Telling people that you study insurance is not a good way to start a conversation.

告诉别人你学保险并不是 开启聊天的最好方式，

In fact, if ever you need to end the conversation,

但是你可以在想要结束对话的时候

try it, tell people you study insurance.

试试看告诉别人你学保险，

People don't want to talk about insurance.

没人愿意谈论保险，

They don't think it's all that exciting.

他们不觉得这有意思，

But I disagree.

但是我不这样认为。

I find insurance fascinating; in fact, I find it magical.

我认为它很有趣，实际上， 我认为它是有魔力的。

And today, I'd like to show you why.

今天我就要告诉你们为什么。

Now, the famous author Franz Kafka

著名的作家弗兰兹·卡夫卡 （Franz Kafka）

used to work for an insurance company in Prague.

曾经在布拉格的一家保险公司工作。

And this is what Kafka had to say about insurance.

这是他对保险的看法，

He said, "Insurance is like a religion.

他说，“保险就像宗教信仰，

Insurance is like a primitive religion.

保险就像原始信仰。

It's the religion of people who believe that by having insurance,

这是那些相信保险

they can ward off evil."

能破财消灾的人的信仰。”

So according to Kafka,

所以据卡夫卡所说，

what leads us to buy insurance is not rational thinking,

引导我们买保险的不是理性思维，

but magical thinking.

而是一种神奇的思维。

It's the belief that if I have insurance,

这是一种信念。如果我有保险，

somehow, magically, those negative events that I fear in the future,

那些我担心未来发生的负面事件

they're not going to happen.

神奇地都不会出现。

Of course, this is totally irrational.

当然这是完全不合理的，

It's like believing that if you have an umbrella,

这就像相信如果你带了雨伞，

it's not going to rain.

天就不会下雨。

If your car gets stolen, yes,

如果你的车被偷了，

the insurance company will cushion the blow.

那保险公司确实可以减轻你的负担。

With the compensation money,

用这笔赔偿金，

you could probably afford a new car.

你可以买一辆新车。

But the fact that you have insurance

但事实是如果你有保险，

does not make your car less likely to be stolen.

你的车被偷的可能性不会降低。

The risk is the same whether you are insured or not.

无论你是否有保险， 这些风险是一样的。

So are people this naive?

人们真这么天真吗？

Do they really believe that if they have insurance,

他们真的相信如果他们有了保险，

they are less at risk?

这些风险会减少吗？

Yes.

答案是“是的”。

Perhaps not consciously, but they do.

也许是没有意识的， 但事实就是如此。

Let me show you.

我来告诉你为什么。

In one of my studies,

在我的一个调查中，

I asked people to predict what is the likelihood

我让人们去预测他们在未来

that in the future they will suffer all kinds of medical misfortunes,

将遭受各种医疗事故，

yhat they will need an operation, physiotherapy or nursing care.

接受手术、理疗和护理的可能性。

Another group was asked to make the same predictions,

另一组的人做同样的预测，

but we first asked them,

不同的是我们先问他们，

"Do you have health insurance?"

“你有医疗保险吗？”

And of course they do.

他们当然是有的。

Israel has universal coverage.

因为以色列人人享有全民医保。

Reminding people that they have health insurance

提醒人们他们有医疗保险

had a fascinating effect.

有了让人出乎意料的效果，

It made them feel less at risk.

这让他们感到风险降低了。

Surprisingly, the effect was not limited to medical problems.

令人惊讶的是， 这个影响不仅限于医疗问题。

It also made them believe that they are less likely to lose money,

这也让他们相信他们不太可能赔钱，

and my personal favorite,

接着是我个人最喜欢的部分，

asking people in Tel Aviv if they have health insurance

问特拉维夫的人们是否有医疗保险

made the prospect of a war in Europe seem less likely.

使欧洲爆发战争的可能性降低了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And that's magic.

这很神奇。

Kafka was right.

卡夫卡是对的。

There is an interesting paradox here.

这是一个有趣的悖论。

We buy insurance against those events that we fear the most.

我们为那些最担心害怕的事件买保险。

But once we are armed with this protection measure,

但一旦我们有了这层保护，

we feel that we are no longer at risk somehow, magically.

我们就奇迹般感觉自己不再有危险，

And this protection effect is not unique to insurance policies.

而且这种保护效应 不止存在与保险政策中

We see it with other protection measures as well.

我们也能在其他的保护措施中看到。

Let me show you.

我来给你们讲讲。

In 2012, the citizens of Israel

在 2012 年，以色列公民

were very worried about a possible military attack by Iran.

都很担心伊朗军事攻击的可能性。

And the government was distributing gas masks to all the citizens.

政府向所有的公民分发防毒面罩，

At the time, we called people and asked them to predict

what are the chances that Iran would attack Israel

伊朗用大规模杀伤性武器

with weapons of mass destruction?

攻击以色列的可能性有多大？

The ratings were quite high.

这个比例很高，

People were worried.

人们非常担心。

But if we first asked them, "Do you have a gas mask?"

但如果我们先问他们你有防毒面具吗？

then the ratings dropped dramatically.

那比例就会明显下降。

And that's magic.

这很神奇，

Apart from the fact that gas masks are largely useless

除了防毒面具 在对付大规模杀伤性武器，

against weapons of mass destruction,

基本没用以外。

the fact that you have a gas mask is unlikely to affect the strategic

事实上，你有一个防毒面具不太可能影响

or the tactical decision of a foreign power.

外国势力的政策或是战术决策。

We have to remember,

我们必须牢记

insurance is an antidote, it's not a vaccine.

保险是对策，而不是疫苗。

It doesn’t ward off evil;

它不能驱邪除恶，

it doesn't eliminate the risks that we face.

它也不能消除我们面对的危险。

However, when it comes to insurance,

但是，当说到保险，

the distinction between an antidote and a vaccine

对策和疫苗的区别

somehow gets blurred in our minds.

某种程度上在我们脑海中模糊了。

Why does it happen?

为什么会这样呢？

It happens because people are not that good

这是因为人们不那么擅长于

at assessing risks rationally.

理性地评估风险。

Let me give you an example.

我来举个例子，

When I arranged my flight to come here,

当我安排来这的航班时，

I had to decide if I wanted to buy travel insurance.

我不得不决定是否要买旅行保险。

Rationally, I should have based this decision on several considerations:

理性的说，我应该基于 以下几点考虑作出这个决定，

the price of the policy, of course,

保单的价格，

the value of my luggage,

行李的价值。

the aggravation that I'm likely to experience

如果我的行李丢失，

if my luggage gets lost.

我会经历的烦恼，

And of course, the likelihood of such an event, right?

当然，还有发生这件事的概率，

But most of the time, we're just too busy to make such rational calculations.

但大多数时候，我们都很忙 ， 没空进行这样的理性计算。

And anyway,

无论如何，

I doubt that Lufthansa are very keen to share their damage statistics with me.

我都怀疑汉莎航空公司是否愿意 与我分享他们损失的数据。

So what do we do instead?

那我们该怎么做呢？

We rely on our intuition.

依靠我们的直觉，

So how do we evaluate risks intuitively?

那如何直观地评估风险呢？

We start by imagining the outcomes that we fear.

从想象我们害怕的结果开始，

So here I am,

所以，一想到我自己，

it's late at night, I'm sitting at this airport,

很晚了，坐在机场，

all the other passengers already collected their luggage and left.

其他乘客都拿着行李离开了。

I realize that my own suitcase is now probably heading to the North Pole.

我意识到自己的行李 可能正在驶向北极，

Thinking about this scenario creates anxiety,

想象这个场景让我产生焦虑，

and then we use the level of anxiety that we feel

然后用我们产生的焦虑程度

in order to assess the probability.

来评估概率。

So if I'm feeling terrified,

所以如果我感到极度惊恐，

I will infer that the risk of such an event is quite high.

我就会推断发生这种事件的风险相当高。

But you see, this is an intuitive risk estimate.

但你看，这是一种直观的风险评估，

It is entirely psychological and emotion-based,

它完全是基于心理和情感的。

which is why it is also highly susceptible to the magic of insurance.

这也是为什么它 很容易受到保险的影响，

Insurance reduces our anxiety.

保险减轻了我们的焦虑。

First, because the outcomes that we imagine are suddenly less grim.

首先，因为我们想象的结果 突然变得不那么可怕，

Yes, I'm sitting at the airport, yes, it's late at night,

是的，我坐在机场， 是的，是深夜。

all the other passengers had left,

所有的乘客也确实离开了，

but there will be this guy there, they would give me a voucher,

但会有一个人在那他们会给我凭单，

eventually, I will get compensated, it's OK.

最终，我会得到补偿的，那没关系。

Also, because we are conditioned to associate insurance with safety,

而且，因为我们习惯于 把保险与安全

security, tranquility and peace of mind.

安宁和内心的平静联系在一起。

And if I'm feeling less anxious,

如果我感觉不那么焦虑，

I would infer that the risk is not that high.

我推断风险并没有那么高。

So there you have it.

这就是结果。

I have insurance, and the risk is gone.

我有保险，就没有风险了。

But why do we associate insurance with peace of mind?

但是为什么我们要把保险 和内心的平静联系在一起呢？

Well, first, in many languages,

首先，在很多语言中，

this is exactly what the word "insurance" means.

正是“保险”这个词的意思。

It comes from the word "sure," which means lack of doubts,

它来自单词“sure” 意思是没有怀疑，没有不确定。

no unknowns that would sneak up and bite you in the future, right?

会溜走，并且在未来反咬你一口，是吧？

But also because traditionally,

但也因为传统上，

this is how insurance was promoted.

这是保险推广的方式。

Let me show you an example.

我再来举一个例子。

This is a lovely advertising toy

这是一个可爱的广告玩具，

that was distributed to visitors at the British exhibition in 1924.

是在 1924 年英国展览会上 分发给参观者的，

So you see this guy and he looks terrified.

你看这人，看起来很可怕。

He is barraged by the bricks of doom,

他被厄运所包围，

fire, accident, falling on his head.

火灾、意外都降临在他头上。

And the tag on the bottom,

在底部的标签，

it reads "anxiety," which perfectly describes the guy's expression.

上面写着“焦虑” 完美诠释了这家伙的表情。

But if you pull on that tag,

但如果你拉上那个标签，

something slides inside, and the guy transforms.

有东西滑进去，这人就变了。

First, he now has the protection of the Prudential insurance helmet,

首先，他现在得到了 保诚保险公司头盔的保护，

and his expression is changed into a smile.

他的表情变成了微笑。

You know why?

你知道为什么吗？

Because Prudential insurance dispels anxiety.

因为保诚保险消除焦虑，

Modern images of insurance convey the same message.

现代保险的形象传达了同样的信息。

Insurance logos often incorporate supporting hand below,

保险标识通常在下方有支撑手，

and umbrellas above, ultimate protection.

上面有保护伞，这是终极保护，

And then travel insurance ads.

然后是旅游保险广告，

They could easily be mistaken for vacation brochures, right?

它们很容易被误认为 是度假手册，对吧？

Romantic couples, exotic islands, palm trees.

浪漫的情侣， 异国情调的岛屿，棕榈树。

And if for some reason you need images of smiling,

如果出于某种原因，你需要微笑的画面，

happy people wearing white,

穿着白色的、快乐的人，

do an image Google search with the words "pension plans"

在谷歌搜索一张图片 带有“养老金计划”，

or "health insurance."

或“健康保险”字样。

Insurance ads rarely show you sick people, smashed cars, torn suitcase.

保险广告很少向你展示生病的人、 撞坏的汽车、破损的手提箱。

The message is loud and clear:

他们传达的信息响亮而清晰：

You have insurance,

有了保险，

all is well in the world.

世界再无后顾之忧。

However, to get us to buy insurance,

怎样才能让我们买保险，

the promoters must also work our fears.

推销员还必须消除我们的恐惧。

Which is why, right after you paid a lot of money

这就是为什么， 在你花了大价钱购买

for a top of the line refrigerator,

顶级冰箱之后，

the same seller who, just moments ago,

上一秒还在向你

were explaining how reliable this product is,

解释这个产品如何可靠的卖家 ，

is now telling you that it may break down at any moment,

现在马上告诉你它随时都可能出故障，

which is why you should buy the extended warranty.

这就是为什么你应该购买 延长保修期的原因。

And with some credit cards, you could get free travel insurance.

有了信用卡， 你就可以获得免费的旅行保险，

All you need to do is to call the agent.

你只需要打电话给代理。

But when you make this call,

但是当你打这个电话时，

you are told, yeah, but the free deal is only for the basic plan.

有人告诉你，是的， 但免费协议仅适用于基本计划。

Basic plan doesn't sound good already, right?

基本计划听起来不太好，对吧？

And then you get to hear a list of things that you are not covered against,

然后你会得到一份你没有 被保险覆盖的东西的清单，

like fires and heart transplant and floods, etc.

比如火灾、心脏移植和洪水等。

But if you pay one more dollar a day, right?

但如果你每天多付一美元，对吧？

And your active imagination does the rest,

剩下的就靠你的想象力了，

with each item on the list, your anxiety is mounting,

清单上的每一项 都会让你越来越焦虑 ，

and you don't ask yourself, "Hey, I'm going to Paris,

你不会问自己，“嘿，我要去巴黎，

why would I care about a tsunami?"

我为什么要关心海啸？”

You pay the dollar, and all is well in the world again.

你付了钱，世界又一切安好。

In fact,

事实上，

just realizing that we are not covered against something

只是意识到我们保险没涵盖某些项目，

is enough to distort our perception of risk.

足以扭曲我们对风险的认知。

I once asked people to imagine, in one of my studies,

我曾经让人们想象，在我的一项研究中，

that they're going to go on a trip

他们要去旅行，

and they plan to buy travel insurance at the airport.

他们计划在机场购买旅行保险。

But by the time they reach the counter,

但当他们到达柜台时，

boarding had already started,

登机已经开始，

and they have to board that airplane painfully aware that they are not covered.

他们必须痛苦地登上飞机， 意识到他们没有被保险。

And then I asked them to assess all kinds of travel-related risks.

然后我让他们评估 各种与旅行相关的风险。

And these were dramatically inflated,

这些都被极大地夸大了，

compared to the ratings of people who did have insurance.

与有保险的人的评级相比。

For example, lost luggage,

例如，丢失的行李，

the risk of lost luggage, almost 50 percent.

丢失行李的风险几乎为 50%。

What are the chances that you will need hospitalization?

您需要住院治疗的几率有多大？

Almost 45 percent, well, 45 percent.

几乎 45%，嗯，45%。

And how about, you will need to be rescued?

那么，你需要获救吗？

Thirty-one percent.

百分之三十一。

I remember the first time I saw this data, I was speechless.

我记得第一次 看到这个数据，我无语了。

I was thinking,

我在想

"Guys, if this is what you believe, why would you ever leave home"

“伙计们，如果这是你所相信的， 你为什么要离开家。”

you know?

你懂的？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Yeah.

是的。

Boarding an airplane with no insurance is tempting fate.

在没有保险的情况下登机 是一种诱人的命运。

It's like realizing that your insurance policy had just expired

就像意识到你的保险单 刚刚过期一样，

and not renewing it?

而不是续约？

Grave danger, indeed.

真的，很危险。

Your appliances, they know, you know.

你的电器他们知道，你知道。

So we buy insurance and restore our peace of mind.

所以我们买了保险， 恢复了内心的平静。

And now you're probably asking yourself,

现在你可能会问自己，

"But peace of mind is good.

“但内心的平静是好的。

What's wrong with peace of mind," right?

内心的平静有什么错，”对吧？

"What's the problem?"

“怎么了？”

The problem is that we are highly likely to be over-insured.

问题是我们很可能被过度投保。

What does it mean?

这是什么意思？

Well, first,

嗯，首先，

we may be protecting ourselves against really unlikely events

我们可能正在保护自己 免受真正不太可能发生的事件的影响

like a tsunami in Paris.

就像巴黎的海啸。

Or we may be paying a lot to prevent a trivial loss.

或者，为了避免一个微不足道的损失， 我们可能会付出很多。

Does it really make sense to extend the warranty on an old washing machine?

延长旧洗衣机的保修期 真的有意义吗？

And if you will examine your own policies back at home,

如果你回到家里检查你自己的保单条款，

many of you will find that you have redundant coverage.

你们中的许多人会发现 自己保险覆盖了多少无关紧要的项目。

You are paying several policies on the same event.

你为了同一项内容投了多份保单，

Many of you do that.

你们很多人都这样做。

Me included, and I should know better.

包括我在内，我应该更清楚。

So ...

所以……

This kind of behavior can get people in debt,

这种行为会让人们负债，

and even if they don't,

即使他们没有，

this is money that we could spend in far more pleasurable ways, right?

这笔冤枉钱完全可以 用在其他地方享受，对吧？

At least I can.

至少我能。

But selling peace of mind is a problem for the insurance companies as well.

但销售安心保险 对保险公司来说是一个问题。

Why?

为什么？

The insurance companies are well aware of the problem called “moral hazard”.

保险公司很清楚 被称为“道德风险”的问题。

You see, when people are insured,

你看，当人们投保时，

they become negligent.

他们变得疏忽大意。

They start leaving their valuables out in the open.

他们开始把贵重物品放在外面，

They don't check their fire alarms, they drive faster.

他们不检查火警，他们开车开得更快。

In short, they act in ways which put them at greater risk.

简而言之，他们的行为方式 使他们面临更大的风险。

Now, the insurance companies,

现在，保险公司，

they believe that we behave like that

他们相信我们会那样做

because we know that if something happens,

因为我们知道如果发生什么事，

someone else will pay.

别人会付钱的。

Which is why many policies include deductibles.

这就是为什么许多保单 都包含免赔额。

That's the money that comes out of your pocket, right?

这就是从你口袋里掏出的钱，对吧？

So the deductibles are there to make sure

所以免赔额是为了确保

that some of the risk will stay with the client.

一些风险将留在客户身上。

But based on the research that I just shared with you,

但根据我刚才和你们分享的研究，

it is entirely possible

完全有可能

that the reason that we are careless

这就是我们粗心大意的原因

is not just that we think that someone else will pay,

不只是我们想的那样 别人会付钱，

but it's also the magical belief that if I have insurance,

但这也是一种神奇的信念， 如果我有保险，

it's not going to rain.

那么就不会下雨的，

The damage is not going to happen,

损害就不会发生，

and magical thinking is not susceptible to deductibles.

并且神奇的思维不会受 免赔额的影响。

What are the lessons to be learned?

要吸取什么教训？

For us, for you?

为我们好，为你好？

Next time you consider buying insurance,

下次你考虑买保险时，

remember Kafka.

想想卡夫卡。

Ask yourself:

问问自己：

Am I buying insurance for the right reasons?

我在买保险的理由是否充分？

Am I making a sound economic decision

我是否做出了合理的经济决策，

or merely trying to please my psyche?

还是仅仅为了取悦我的心灵？

As for the insurance companies,

至于保险公司，

I hope they will consider changing their message.

我希望他们会考虑调整他们的信息。

Don't sell magical happiness.

不要兜售神奇的幸福。

Encourage us to buy insurance when it is economically rational

鼓励我们在经济可承担的范围内

and the responsible thing to do.

负责任地去购买保险。

And finally,

最后，

guys, I hope that next time someone says "I study insurance,"

伙计们，我希望下次有人说“我研究保险”，

you would say, "Wonderful.

你会说：“太好了。

Please tell me more."

请告诉我更多。”

Thank you.

非常感谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）