The Counterintuitive Psychology of Insurance | Orit Tykocinski | TED

Transcriber:

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

Hello, everyone.

大家好。

My name is Orit, yes.

我是歐薇特。

And I study insurance.

我研究保險。

Telling people that you study insurance is not a good way to start a conversation.

告訴別人你研究保險， 並不是開始談話的好方法。

In fact, if ever you need to end the conversation,

事實上，如果你需要結束談話，

try it, tell people you study insurance.

試試看，告訴對方你研究保險。

People don't want to talk about insurance.

大家都不想談保險。他們覺得 這話題一點也不讓人興奮。

They don't think it's all that exciting.

But I disagree.

但我不同意。

I find insurance fascinating; in fact, I find it magical.

我覺得保險很迷人； 事實上，我覺得保險很神奇。

And today, I'd like to show you why.

今天，我要來跟大家分享原因。

Now, the famous author Franz Kafka

知名的作家法蘭茲‧卡夫卡

used to work for an insurance company in Prague.

曾經為布拉格的一間保險公司工作。

And this is what Kafka had to say about insurance.

卡夫卡對保險的看法如下，他說：

He said, "Insurance is like a religion.

保險就像是宗教。

Insurance is like a primitive religion.

保險就像是原始宗教。

It's the religion of people who believe that by having insurance,

信奉此宗教的人，相信如果有保險，

they can ward off evil."

就能避兇。」

So according to Kafka,

根據卡夫卡的說法，我們不是 因為理性的思考而去買保險，

what leads us to buy insurance is not rational thinking,

but magical thinking.

而是因為魔法的想法。

It's the belief that if I have insurance,

因為相信，如果我有保險，

somehow, magically, those negative events that I fear in the future,

就會以某種魔法般的方式，

讓我擔心未來有可能發生的負面事件

they're not going to happen.

不會發生。

Of course, this is totally irrational.

當然，這完全不理性。

It's like believing that if you have an umbrella,

這就像是相信如果你有帶傘

it's not going to rain.

就不會下雨。

If your car gets stolen, yes,

如果你的車被偷了，是的，

the insurance company will cushion the blow.

保險公司會緩衝這衝擊。

With the compensation money,

賠償金可能就夠讓你買一台新車。

you could probably afford a new car.

But the fact that you have insurance

但，就算你有保險，

does not make your car less likely to be stolen.

也不會讓降低你的車被偷的機率。

The risk is the same whether you are insured or not.

不論你有沒有保險，風險都一樣。

So are people this naive?

所以，人這麼天真嗎？

Do they really believe that if they have insurance,

他們真心相信，如果他們有保險，

they are less at risk?

他們的風險就比較低嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Perhaps not consciously, but they do.

也許不是有意識的，但的確如此。

Let me show you.

讓我跟各位說明。

In one of my studies,

我做了一項研究，請受試者去預測

I asked people to predict what is the likelihood

在未來，有多高的可能性

that in the future they will suffer all kinds of medical misfortunes,

他們會遇到各種醫療上的不幸狀況，

yhat they will need an operation, physiotherapy or nursing care.

會需要動手術、物理治療，

或護理照護。

Another group was asked to make the same predictions,

另一組受試者也要做同樣的 預測，但我們先問他們：

but we first asked them,

"Do you have health insurance?"

「你有健康保險嗎？」

And of course they do.

當然，他們有。

Israel has universal coverage.

在以色列全民都有保險。

Reminding people that they have health insurance

光是提醒這些人他們有保險，

had a fascinating effect.

就有很驚人有效果。

It made them feel less at risk.

會讓他們覺得自己的風險比較低。

Surprisingly, the effect was not limited to medical problems.

另人驚訝的是，

此效果並不限於醫療問題。

It also made them believe that they are less likely to lose money,

他們也因此相信， 他們比較不會損失錢，

and my personal favorite,

還有我個人最愛的，

asking people in Tel Aviv if they have health insurance

在特拉維夫市問受試者 是否有健康保險，

made the prospect of a war in Europe seem less likely.

就會讓他們覺得歐洲發生 戰爭的可能性降低了。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And that's magic.

那就是魔法。卡夫卡是對的。

Kafka was right.

There is an interesting paradox here.

這裡有個有趣的矛盾。

We buy insurance against those events that we fear the most.

我們會針對我們 最懼怕的事情來購買保險。

But once we are armed with this protection measure,

但，一旦我們有了 這種保護措施之後，

we feel that we are no longer at risk somehow, magically.

不知怎麼的，我們就覺得 我們不再有風險了，

像魔法一樣。

And this protection effect is not unique to insurance policies.

且並非只有保單才有這種保護效果。

We see it with other protection measures as well.

我們發現其他保護措施 也有這個現象。

Let me show you.

讓我跟各位說明。

In 2012, the citizens of Israel

2012 年，以色列公民非常擔心

were very worried about a possible military attack by Iran.

伊朗可能會發動軍事攻擊。

And the government was distributing gas masks to all the citizens.

政府把防毒面罩發給所有公民。

At the time, we called people and asked them to predict

我們在那段時間做電訪， 請受訪者預測有多高的機率

what are the chances that Iran would attack Israel

伊朗會用大規模毀滅性武器 來攻擊以色列。

with weapons of mass destruction?

The ratings were quite high.

評分相當高。大家很擔心。

People were worried.

But if we first asked them, "Do you have a gas mask?"

但如果我們先問他們： 「你有防毒面罩嗎？」

then the ratings dropped dramatically.

評分就大大下降了。

And that's magic.

那就是魔法。

Apart from the fact that gas masks are largely useless

不僅防毒面罩對於

against weapons of mass destruction,

大規模毀滅性武器 幾乎完全沒有用之外，

the fact that you have a gas mask is unlikely to affect the strategic

且你擁有防毒面罩這件事，

也不太可能會影響到外國勢力的

or the tactical decision of a foreign power.

策略或戰略決策。

We have to remember,

我們要記住，

insurance is an antidote, it's not a vaccine.

保險是解藥，不是疫苗。

It doesn’t ward off evil;

它不能避兇；

it doesn't eliminate the risks that we face.

它不能消除我們面對的風險。

However, when it comes to insurance,

然而，在保險方面， 解藥和疫苗之間的區別

the distinction between an antidote and a vaccine

somehow gets blurred in our minds.

不知怎麼的，在我們腦中模糊掉了。

Why does it happen?

為什麼會發生這種事？

It happens because people are not that good

會發生是因為，人並沒有那麼擅長

at assessing risks rationally.

理性評估風險。

Let me give you an example.

讓我舉個例子。

When I arranged my flight to come here,

當我安排來這裡的班機時，

I had to decide if I wanted to buy travel insurance.

我得決定我是否要買旅遊保險。

Rationally, I should have based this decision on several considerations:

理性上，我做這個 決策時應該要考量幾點：

the price of the policy, of course,

保單的價格，這是當然的；

the value of my luggage,

我的行李的價值，

the aggravation that I'm likely to experience

如果我的行李掉了， 我可能會感受到的麻煩程度。

if my luggage gets lost.

And of course, the likelihood of such an event, right?

當然，還有這種事發生的機率，

對吧？

But most of the time, we're just too busy to make such rational calculations.

但，通常，我們太忙了， 無法做這種理性的計算。

And anyway,

且，反正，我也不認為漢莎航空

I doubt that Lufthansa are very keen to share their damage statistics with me.

會很想跟我們分享 他們的損害統計資料。

So what do we do instead?

那我們要改用什麼方式？ 我們仰賴我們的直覺。

We rely on our intuition.

So how do we evaluate risks intuitively?

我們如何用直覺來評估風險？

We start by imagining the outcomes that we fear.

一開始，我們會先想像 我們懼怕的結果。

So here I am,

所以，我的狀況是，

it's late at night, I'm sitting at this airport,

深夜了，我坐在這個機場裡，

all the other passengers already collected their luggage and left.

所有其他乘客都已經 拿到行李並離開了。

I realize that my own suitcase is now probably heading to the North Pole.

我得知，我的旅行箱 可能正在前往北極的路上。

Thinking about this scenario creates anxiety,

想著這個情境就會造成焦慮，

and then we use the level of anxiety that we feel

接著，我們會用 我們感受到的焦慮程度

in order to assess the probability.

來評估可能性。

So if I'm feeling terrified,

所以，如果我覺得嚇壞了，

I will infer that the risk of such an event is quite high.

我就推論這件事的風險非常高。

But you see, this is an intuitive risk estimate.

但，要知道，這是 直覺式的風險估計。

It is entirely psychological and emotion-based,

它的根據完全是心理和情緒，

which is why it is also highly susceptible to the magic of insurance.

這也就是為什麼，它也

非常容易受到保險魔法的影響。

Insurance reduces our anxiety.

保險能減少我們的焦慮。

First, because the outcomes that we imagine are suddenly less grim.

首先，因為我們所想像的結果

突然就不是那麼可怕了，

Yes, I'm sitting at the airport, yes, it's late at night,

是的，我坐在機場， 是的，已經深夜了，

all the other passengers had left,

所有其他乘客都已經離開了，但，

but there will be this guy there, they would give me a voucher,

會有一個人在那裡， 他們會給我保證，

eventually, I will get compensated, it's OK.

最終，我會獲得補償，沒關係。

Also, because we are conditioned to associate insurance with safety,

此外，

因為我們受到制約，

會把保險聯想到安全、保障、

security, tranquility and peace of mind.

平靜，和心安。

And if I'm feeling less anxious,

如果我們感到沒那麼焦慮，

I would infer that the risk is not that high.

我就會推論，風險沒那麼高。

So there you have it.

就這樣。

I have insurance, and the risk is gone.

我有保險，風險就不見了。

But why do we associate insurance with peace of mind?

但我們為什麼會把保險連結到心安？

Well, first, in many languages,

首先，在許多語言當中，

this is exactly what the word "insurance" means.

「保險」這個詞本來就有這個意思。

It comes from the word "sure," which means lack of doubts,

它來自「確保」這個詞，

意思就是沒有懷疑、

未來沒有會突襲你的未知數，

no unknowns that would sneak up and bite you in the future, right?

對吧？

But also because traditionally,

但也因為，傳統上，

this is how insurance was promoted.

就是這樣宣傳推銷保險的。

Let me show you an example.

讓我舉個例子。

This is a lovely advertising toy

這是個很可愛的廣告玩具，發給

that was distributed to visitors at the British exhibition in 1924.

1924 年英國博覽會的訪客。

So you see this guy and he looks terrified.

可以看到這個人，他看起來很驚恐。

He is barraged by the bricks of doom,

他的頭頂上遭到厄運、

fire, accident, falling on his head.

火災、意外的磗塊猛攻。

And the tag on the bottom,

底下的標籤寫著「焦慮」，

it reads "anxiety," which perfectly describes the guy's expression.

貼切描述了這個人的表情。

But if you pull on that tag,

但如果你去拉那個標籤，

something slides inside, and the guy transforms.

裡面有滑動的設計，

讓這個人轉變。

First, he now has the protection of the Prudential insurance helmet,

首先，他有了保德信的保險頭盔，

and his expression is changed into a smile.

他的表情變成了微笑。 知道為什麼嗎？因為，

You know why?

Because Prudential insurance dispels anxiety.

保德信保險消除了焦慮。

Modern images of insurance convey the same message.

現代的保險形象也傳達同樣的訊息。

Insurance logos often incorporate supporting hand below,

保險的商標通常會有 雙手在底下支撐、

and umbrellas above, ultimate protection.

上方還有雨傘，終極保護。

And then travel insurance ads.

接著，

旅遊保險廣告。

They could easily be mistaken for vacation brochures, right?

很容易會誤以為它們 是渡假的傳單，對吧？

Romantic couples, exotic islands, palm trees.

浪漫的情侶、異國風情的島嶼、

棕櫚樹。

And if for some reason you need images of smiling,

如果，基於某種理由，

你想找開心的人穿著 白色衣服並微笑的圖像，

happy people wearing white,

do an image Google search with the words "pension plans"

只要到 Google 圖片搜尋關鍵字

「退休金計畫」 或「健康保險」即可找到。

or "health insurance."

Insurance ads rarely show you sick people, smashed cars, torn suitcase.

保險廣告很少會讓你看到 生病的人、撞爛的車、

扯壞的旅行箱。

The message is loud and clear:

訊息大聲又清楚：

You have insurance,

你有保險，

all is well in the world.

世界上的一切就會很好。

However, to get us to buy insurance,

然而，要讓我們買保險，

the promoters must also work our fears.

推保險的人也得運用我們的恐懼。

Which is why, right after you paid a lot of money

這就是為什麼，你才剛花了

很多錢買了一台頂級冰箱之後，

for a top of the line refrigerator,

the same seller who, just moments ago,

剛剛本來在解釋這個產品

were explaining how reliable this product is,

有多可靠的銷售員，

is now telling you that it may break down at any moment,

現在卻又告訴你它隨時有可能故障，

which is why you should buy the extended warranty.

因此你應該要購買延長的保固。

And with some credit cards, you could get free travel insurance.

某些信用卡可以提供你 免費的旅遊保險。

All you need to do is to call the agent.

你只需要打電話給經紀人即可。

But when you make this call,

但若你打了這通電話，你會得知：

you are told, yeah, but the free deal is only for the basic plan.

沒錯，但只有基本 保險方案才是免費的。

Basic plan doesn't sound good already, right?

基本方案聽起來不怎麼好，對吧？

And then you get to hear a list of things that you are not covered against,

接著你會聽到一連串 基本方案沒有給付的狀況，

like fires and heart transplant and floods, etc.

比如火災、心臟移植、

淹水等等。

But if you pay one more dollar a day, right?

但，如果你一天多付一塊美金，

And your active imagination does the rest,

剩下的，你的主動想像都會包辦，

with each item on the list, your anxiety is mounting,

每多聽到一種狀況， 你的焦慮就會再增加一些，

and you don't ask yourself, "Hey, I'm going to Paris,

你不會問你自己： 「嘿，我要去的是巴黎，

why would I care about a tsunami?"

我幹嘛管海嘯？」

You pay the dollar, and all is well in the world again.

你付那一塊美金，

世界又會再次都很好。

In fact,

事實上，

just realizing that we are not covered against something

光是知道我們沒有 針對某種狀況買保險，

is enough to distort our perception of risk.

就足夠扭曲我們對風險的感受。

I once asked people to imagine, in one of my studies,

我曾經做過一項研究，請受試者想像

that they're going to go on a trip

他們要去旅行，

and they plan to buy travel insurance at the airport.

他們打算在機場購買旅遊保險。

But by the time they reach the counter,

但，等他們到櫃台時，

boarding had already started,

已經開始登機，

and they have to board that airplane painfully aware that they are not covered.

他們必須登機，

心知肚明自己沒有買保險 讓他們很痛苦。

And then I asked them to assess all kinds of travel-related risks.

接著，我請他們評估 各種和旅行相關的風險。

And these were dramatically inflated,

相對於有買保險的人，

compared to the ratings of people who did have insurance.

沒買的人會大大膨脹這些風險。

For example, lost luggage,

比如，

行李遺失，行李遺失的 風險接近 50%。

the risk of lost luggage, almost 50 percent.

What are the chances that you will need hospitalization?

你會需要住院的機率有多高？

Almost 45 percent, well, 45 percent.

接近 45%，嗯，45%。

And how about, you will need to be rescued?

那，你會需要救援的風險呢？

Thirty-one percent.

31%。

I remember the first time I saw this data, I was speechless.

記得初次看到這些資料時， 我一整個無言，心想：

I was thinking,

"Guys, if this is what you believe, why would you ever leave home"

「各位，

如果你們真心相信會這樣， 你們幹嘛出家門？」

you know?

（笑聲）

(Laughter)

Yeah.

是啊。

Boarding an airplane with no insurance is tempting fate.

沒有保險就登機，是在玩命。

It's like realizing that your insurance policy had just expired

就好像知道你的保單剛剛過期，

and not renewing it?

卻不續保？

Grave danger, indeed.

超危險，真的。

Your appliances, they know, you know.

你買的電器，他們知道。

So we buy insurance and restore our peace of mind.

所以我們要買保險，

恢復心安的感覺。

And now you're probably asking yourself,

現在，你可能會問自己： 「但心安很好啊，

"But peace of mind is good.

What's wrong with peace of mind," right?

心安有什麼不對嗎？」

"What's the problem?"

「有什麼問題？」

The problem is that we are highly likely to be over-insured.

問題是，我們非常 有可能會超額保險。

What does it mean?

那是什麼意思？首先，

Well, first,

we may be protecting ourselves against really unlikely events

我們會針對真的不太可能 發生的事情去保護自己，

like a tsunami in Paris.

比如巴黎的海嘯。

Or we may be paying a lot to prevent a trivial loss.

或者花很多錢去預防小損失。

Does it really make sense to extend the warranty on an old washing machine?

延長老舊洗衣機的保固真的合理嗎？

And if you will examine your own policies back at home,

如果各位回家好好 檢視一下自己的保單，

many of you will find that you have redundant coverage.

許多人會發現多餘的保險。

You are paying several policies on the same event.

你買了多張保單都在 預防同一件事發生。

Many of you do that.

許多人會這樣做。

Me included, and I should know better.

包括我在內，以我的背景 不該會這麼做的。

So ...

所以……

This kind of behavior can get people in debt,

這種行為

會讓人負債，就算沒有，

and even if they don't,

this is money that we could spend in far more pleasurable ways, right?

這筆錢本來也可以花在 更讓人愉快的地方，

對吧？至少我可以。

At least I can.

But selling peace of mind is a problem for the insurance companies as well.

但，對保險公司來說， 銷售「心安」也是個問題。

Why?

為什麼？

The insurance companies are well aware of the problem called “moral hazard”.

保險公司很清楚知道 所謂「道德風險」的問題。

You see, when people are insured,

要知道，當人有保險時，

they become negligent.

就會變得很大意。

They start leaving their valuables out in the open.

他們會開始把貴重物品 留在開放的地方。

They don't check their fire alarms, they drive faster.

他們不會檢查火災警報器， 他們開車會開更快。

In short, they act in ways which put them at greater risk.

簡言之，他們的行為 會讓他們有更大的風險。

Now, the insurance companies,

保險公司，他們相信， 我們會有那樣的行為，

they believe that we behave like that

because we know that if something happens,

是因為我們知道如果出事了，

someone else will pay.

有別人會幫忙付錢。

Which is why many policies include deductibles.

這就是為什麼許多保單 會有自付額的規定。

That's the money that comes out of your pocket, right?

也就是你自己掏腰包付的錢。

So the deductibles are there to make sure

所以，設定自付額

that some of the risk will stay with the client.

是為了確保客戶自己 要承擔一些風險。

But based on the research that I just shared with you,

但，根據我剛才跟大家分享的研究，

it is entirely possible

很有可能

that the reason that we are careless

我們之所以會很大意，不只是因為

is not just that we think that someone else will pay,

我們認為別人會幫忙付錢，

but it's also the magical belief that if I have insurance,

也是因為我們相信魔法， 即如果我們有保險，

it's not going to rain.

就不會下雨，

The damage is not going to happen,

損害就不會發生，

and magical thinking is not susceptible to deductibles.

這種魔法的想法 不會受到自付額影響。

What are the lessons to be learned?

我們從中能學到什麼？

For us, for you?

對我們，對各位而言？

Next time you consider buying insurance,

下次，你考慮要買保險時，

remember Kafka.

別忘了卡夫卡。

Ask yourself:

問問你自己：

Am I buying insurance for the right reasons?

我是基於正確的理由而購買保險嗎？

Am I making a sound economic decision

我是在做健全的經濟決策？

or merely trying to please my psyche?

或者我只是想要取悅我的心理？

As for the insurance companies,

對保險公司而言，

I hope they will consider changing their message.

我希望它們會考慮改變 它們傳遞的訊息。

Don't sell magical happiness.

別銷售魔法式的快樂。

Encourage us to buy insurance when it is economically rational

鼓勵我們，買保險

是因為在經濟面上合理，才買，

and the responsible thing to do.

是因為這麼做是負責的行為，才買。

And finally,

最後，

guys, I hope that next time someone says "I study insurance,"

各位，我希望下次有人說

「我研究保險」時，你會說：

you would say, "Wonderful.

「太棒了。

Please tell me more."

請多跟我說一些。」

Thank you.

謝謝。

（掌聲）

(Applause)