The Counterintuitive Psychology of Insurance | Orit Tykocinski | TED

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ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

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Transcriber:
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ืชืจื’ื•ื: Orit Tykocinski ืขืจื™ื›ื”: Ido Dekkers
00:04
Hello, everyone.
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ืฉืœื•ื ืœื›ื•ืœื.
00:06
My name is Orit, yes.
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ืฉืžื™ ืื•ืจื™ืช, ื›ืŸ.
00:09
And I study insurance.
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ื•ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืงืจืช ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—
00:13
Telling people that you study insurance is not a good way to start a conversation.
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ืœื•ืžืจ ืœืื ืฉื™ื ืฉืืชื ื—ื•ืงืจื™ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ืื™ื ื ื” ื“ืจืš ื˜ื•ื‘ื” ืœื”ืชื—ื™ืœ ืฉื™ื—ื”.
00:18
In fact, if ever you need to end the conversation,
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ืœืžืขืฉื”, ืื ืืชื ืžืขื•ื ื™ื ื™ื ืœืกื™ื™ื ืฉื™ื—ื”,
00:22
try it, tell people you study insurance.
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ืชื ืกื• ืืช ื–ื”, ืชื’ื™ื“ื• ืœืื ืฉื™ื ืฉืืชื ื—ื•ืงืจื™ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—.
00:25
People don't want to talk about insurance.
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ืื ืฉื™ื ืœื ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืœื“ื‘ืจ ืขืœ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—.
00:28
They don't think it's all that exciting.
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ื”ื ืœื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ื–ื” ื ื•ืฉื ืžืจื’ืฉ.
00:30
But I disagree.
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื™ ืœื ืžืกื›ื™ืžื”.
00:32
I find insurance fascinating; in fact, I find it magical.
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ืœื“ืขืชื™ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ื”ื•ื ื ื•ืฉื ืžืจืชืง; ืืคื™ืœื• ืงืกื•ื.
00:37
And today, I'd like to show you why.
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ื•ื”ื™ื•ื, ืื ื™ ืจื•ืฆื” ืœื”ืจืื•ืช ืœื›ื ืžื“ื•ืข.
00:42
Now, the famous author Franz Kafka
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ื”ืกื•ืคืจ ื”ืžืคื•ืจืกื ืคืจื ืฅ ืงืคืงื
00:46
used to work for an insurance company in Prague.
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ืขื‘ื“ ืขื‘ื•ืจ ื—ื‘ืจืช ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ื‘ืคืจืื’.
00:49
And this is what Kafka had to say about insurance.
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ื•ื–ื” ืžื” ืฉื”ื™ื” ืœืงืคืงื ืœื”ื’ื™ื“ ืขืœ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—.
00:51
He said, "Insurance is like a religion.
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ื”ื•ื ืืžืจ, โ€œื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ื”ื•ื ื›ืžื• ื“ืช.
00:55
Insurance is like a primitive religion.
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ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ื”ื•ื ื›ืžื• ื“ืช ืคืจื™ืžื™ื˜ื™ื‘ื™ืช.
00:59
It's the religion of people who believe that by having insurance,
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ื–ื• ื”ื“ืช ืฉืœ ืื ืฉื™ื ืฉืžืืžื™ื ื™ื ืฉื‘ืขื–ืจืช ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—,
01:03
they can ward off evil."
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ื”ื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืžื ื•ืข ืจื•ืข.โ€
01:06
So according to Kafka,
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ืื– ืœืคื™ ืงืคืงื,
01:08
what leads us to buy insurance is not rational thinking,
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ืžื” ืฉืžื•ื‘ื™ืœ ืื•ืชื ื• ืœืงื ื•ืช ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ื–ื• ืœื ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืจืฆื™ื•ื ืืœื™ืช,
01:11
but magical thinking.
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ืืœื ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืžืื’ื™ืช.
01:14
It's the belief that if I have insurance,
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ื–ื• ื”ืืžื•ื ื” ืฉืื ื™ืฉ ืœื™ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—,
01:17
somehow, magically, those negative events that I fear in the future,
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ืื™ื›ืฉื”ื•, ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืžืื’ื™, ืžืื•ืจืขื•ืช ืขืชื™ื“ื™ื™ื ืžื”ื ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉืฉ,
01:23
they're not going to happen.
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ืœื ื™ืชืจื—ืฉื•.
01:26
Of course, this is totally irrational.
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ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ, ื–ื” ืœื—ืœื•ื˜ื™ืŸ ืœื ืจืฆื™ื•ื ืืœื™.
01:28
It's like believing that if you have an umbrella,
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ื–ื” ื›ืžื• ืœื”ืืžื™ืŸ ืฉืื ื™ืฉ ืœื›ื ืžื˜ืจื™ื™ื”,
01:30
it's not going to rain.
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ืœื ื™ืจื“ ื’ืฉื.
01:34
If your car gets stolen, yes,
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ืื ื”ืžื›ื•ื ื™ืช ืฉืœื›ื ื ื’ื ื‘ื”, ื›ืŸ,
01:36
the insurance company will cushion the blow.
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ื—ื‘ืจืช ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ืชืจื›ืš ืืช ื”ืžื›ื”.
01:39
With the compensation money,
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ื‘ืขื–ืจืช ื›ืกืคื™ ื”ืคื™ืฆื•ื™ื™ื,
01:41
you could probably afford a new car.
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ืชื•ื›ืœื• ื›ื ืจืื” ืœืฉืœื ืขื‘ื•ืจ ืžื›ื•ื ื™ืช ื—ื“ืฉื”.
01:43
But the fact that you have insurance
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ืขื•ื‘ื“ื” ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื›ื ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—,
01:46
does not make your car less likely to be stolen.
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ืœื ืžืงื˜ื™ื ื” ืืช ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ ืฉืžื›ื•ื ื™ืชื›ื ืชื’ื ื‘.
01:49
The risk is the same whether you are insured or not.
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ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ื”ื•ื ื–ื”ื”, ื‘ื™ืŸ ืื ืืชื ืžื‘ื•ื˜ื—ื™ื ืื• ืœื.
01:53
So are people this naive?
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ื”ืื ืื ืฉื™ื ื›ืœ ื›ืš ื ืื™ื‘ื™ื?
01:55
Do they really believe that if they have insurance,
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ื”ื ื‘ืืžืช ืžืืžื™ื ื™ื ืฉืื ื™ืฉ ืœื”ื ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—,
01:58
they are less at risk?
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ื”ื ื‘ืคื—ื•ืช ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ?
02:00
Yes.
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ื›ืŸ.
02:02
Perhaps not consciously, but they do.
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ืื•ืœื™ ืœื ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืžื•ื“ืข, ืื‘ืœ ื›ืŸ.
02:04
Let me show you.
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ืชื ื• ืœื™ ืœื”ืจืื•ืช ืœื›ื.
02:07
In one of my studies,
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ื‘ืื—ื“ ืžื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ืฉืœื™,
02:08
I asked people to predict what is the likelihood
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ื‘ื™ืงืฉืชื™ ืžืื ืฉื™ื ืœื ื‘ื ืืช ื”ืกื‘ื™ืจื•ืช
02:12
that in the future they will suffer all kinds of medical misfortunes,
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ืฉื‘ืขืชื™ื“ ื™ืกื‘ืœื• ืžื›ืœ ืžื™ื ื™ ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ืจืคื•ืื™ื•ืช,
02:16
yhat they will need an operation, physiotherapy or nursing care.
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ืฉื™ื–ื“ืงืงื• ืœื ื™ืชื•ื—, ืคื™ื–ื™ื•ืชืจืคื™ื”, ืื• ื˜ื™ืคื•ืœ ืกื™ืขื•ื“ื™.
02:22
Another group was asked to make the same predictions,
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ืงื‘ื•ืฆื” ืื—ืจืช ื”ืชื‘ืงืฉื” ืœืขืจื•ืš ืืช ืื•ืชื ื ื™ื‘ื•ื™ื™ื,
02:25
but we first asked them,
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ืื‘ืœ ืœืคื ื™ ื›ืŸ ืฉืืœื ื• ืื•ืชื,
02:27
"Do you have health insurance?"
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โ€œื™ืฉ ืœื›ื ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ืจืคื•ืื™?โ€
02:29
And of course they do.
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ื•ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ ื™ืฉ ืœื”ื.
02:30
Israel has universal coverage.
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ื‘ื™ืฉืจืืœ ื™ืฉ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ืจืคื•ืื™ ืžืžืœื›ืชื™.
02:33
Reminding people that they have health insurance
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ืœืชื–ื›ื•ืจืช ื‘ื“ื‘ืจ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ื”ื‘ืจื™ืื•ืช
02:36
had a fascinating effect.
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ื”ื™ื” ืืคืงื˜ ืžืจืชืง.
02:38
It made them feel less at risk.
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ื–ื” ื’ืจื ืœืื ืฉื™ื ืœื—ื•ืฉ ืฉื”ื ืคื—ื•ืช ื‘ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ.
02:42
Surprisingly, the effect was not limited to medical problems.
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ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืžืคืชื™ืข ื”ืืคืงื˜ ืœื ื”ื™ื” ืžื•ื’ื‘ืœ ืœื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ื‘ืจื™ืื•ืช.
02:48
It also made them believe that they are less likely to lose money,
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ื–ื” ื’ื ื’ืจื ืœื ืฉืืœื™ื ืœื”ืืžื™ืŸ ืฉื”ื ื‘ืคื—ื•ืช ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ืœื”ืคืกื“ ื›ืกืคื™,
02:53
and my personal favorite,
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ื•ื”ืžืžืฆื ื”ืื”ื•ื‘ ืขืœื™ ื‘ืžื™ื•ื—ื“,
02:55
asking people in Tel Aviv if they have health insurance
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ืœืฉืื•ืœ ืื ืฉื™ื ื‘ืชืœ ืื‘ื™ื‘ ืื ื™ืฉ ืœื”ื ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ืจืคื•ืื™,
02:58
made the prospect of a war in Europe seem less likely.
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ื”ื•ืจื™ื“ ืืช ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ ืœืžืœื—ืžื” ื‘ืื™ืจื•ืคื”.
03:03
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
03:05
And that's magic.
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ื•ื–ื” ืงืกื.
03:06
Kafka was right.
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ืงืคืงื ืฆื“ืง.
03:10
There is an interesting paradox here.
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ื™ืฉ ื›ืืŸ ืคืจืื“ื•ืงืก ืžืขื ื™ื™ืŸ.
03:13
We buy insurance against those events that we fear the most.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืงื•ื ื™ื ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ื›ื ื’ื“ ื”ืื™ืจื•ืขื™ื ืฉื”ื›ื™ ืžืคื—ื™ื“ื™ื ืื•ืชื ื•.
03:17
But once we are armed with this protection measure,
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ืื‘ืœ ื›ืืฉืจ ืื ื—ื ื• ื—ืžื•ืฉื™ื ื‘ืืžืฆืขื™ ื”ื”ื’ื ื” ื”ื–ื”,
03:21
we feel that we are no longer at risk somehow, magically.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ื—ืฉื™ื ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื›ื‘ืจ ืœื ื‘ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ, ืื™ื›ืฉื”ื•, ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืžืื’ื™.
03:26
And this protection effect is not unique to insurance policies.
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ื•ืืคืงื˜ ื”ื”ื’ื ื” ื”ื–ื”, ืื™ื ื ื• ื™ื—ื•ื“ื™ ืœืคื•ืœื™ืกื•ืช ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—.
03:31
We see it with other protection measures as well.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืจื•ืื™ื ืื•ืชื• ื’ื ืขื‘ื•ืจ ืืžืฆืขื™ ื”ื’ื ื” ืื—ืจื™ื.
03:34
Let me show you.
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ืชื ื• ืœื™ ืœื”ืจืื•ืช ืœื›ื.
03:36
In 2012, the citizens of Israel
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ื‘ 2012, ืชื•ืฉื‘ื™ ื™ืฉืจืืœ
03:40
were very worried about a possible military attack by Iran.
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ื”ื™ื• ืžื•ื“ืื’ื™ื ืžืื“ ืžื”ืืคืฉืจื•ืช ืฉืœ ืžืชืงืคื” ืฆื‘ืื™ืช ืื™ืจื ื™ืช.
03:45
And the government was distributing gas masks to all the citizens.
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ื•ื”ืžืžืฉืœื” ื—ื™ืœืงื” ืžืกื›ื•ืช ื’ื– ืœื›ืœ ื”ืชื•ืฉื‘ื™ื.
03:52
At the time, we called people and asked them to predict
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ื‘ืื•ืชื” ืชืงื•ืคื”, ื”ืชืงืฉืจื ื• ืœืื ืฉื™ื ื•ื‘ืงืฉื ื• ืžื”ื ืœื ื‘ื
03:55
what are the chances that Iran would attack Israel
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ืžื”ื• ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ ืฉืื™ืจืŸ ืชืชืงื•ืฃ ืืช ื™ืฉืจืืœ
03:58
with weapons of mass destruction?
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ื‘ื ืฉืง ืฉืœ ื”ืฉืžื“ื” ื”ืžื•ื ื™ืช?
04:02
The ratings were quite high.
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ื”ื“ืจื•ื’ื™ื ื”ื™ื• ื’ื‘ื•ื”ื™ื ืœืžื“ื™.
04:03
People were worried.
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ืื ืฉื™ื ื”ื™ื• ืžื•ื“ืื’ื™ื.
04:05
But if we first asked them, "Do you have a gas mask?"
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ืงื•ื“ื ืฉืืœื ื• ืื•ืชื, โ€œื™ืฉ ืœืš ืžืกื›ืช ื’ื–?โ€
04:10
then the ratings dropped dramatically.
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ื”ื“ืจื•ื’ื™ื ื™ืจื“ื• ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ื“ืจืžื˜ื™ืช.
04:13
And that's magic.
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ื•ื–ื” ืงืกื.
04:15
Apart from the fact that gas masks are largely useless
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ืžืœื‘ื“ ื”ืขื•ื‘ื“ื” ืฉืžืกื›ื•ืช ื’ื– ืื™ื ืŸ ื™ืขื™ืœื•ืช
04:19
against weapons of mass destruction,
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ื›ื ื’ื“ ื ืฉืง ื”ืฉืžื“ื” ื”ืžื•ื ื™ืช,
04:22
the fact that you have a gas mask is unlikely to affect the strategic
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ื”ืขื•ื‘ื“ื” ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื›ื ืžืกื›ืช ื’ื–, ืœื ืกื‘ื™ืจ ืฉืชืฉืคื™ืข ืขืœ ื”ื—ืœื˜ื•ืช ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื•ืช
04:27
or the tactical decision of a foreign power.
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ืื• ื˜ืงื˜ื™ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืžืขืฆืžื” ื–ืจื”.
04:34
We have to remember,
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ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœื–ื›ื•ืจ,
04:37
insurance is an antidote, it's not a vaccine.
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ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ื”ื™ื ื• ืชืจื•ืคืช ื ื’ื“, ื”ื•ื ืื™ื ื ื• ื—ื™ืกื•ืŸ.
04:41
It doesnโ€™t ward off evil;
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ื”ื•ื ืœื ืžื•ื ืข ืจื•ืข;
04:44
it doesn't eliminate the risks that we face.
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ื”ื•ื ืœื ืžื—ืกืœ ืืช ื”ืื™ื•ืžื™ื ื”ืขื•ืžื“ื™ื ื‘ืคื ื™ื ื•.
04:48
However, when it comes to insurance,
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ืื‘ืœ, ื›ืฉืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—,
04:49
the distinction between an antidote and a vaccine
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ื”ื”ื‘ื“ืœ ื‘ื™ืŸ ืชืจื•ืคื” ื•ื—ื™ืกื•ืŸ
04:52
somehow gets blurred in our minds.
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ืื™ื›ืฉื”ื• ืžื™ื˜ืฉื˜ืฉ ื‘ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœื ื•.
04:57
Why does it happen?
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ืžื“ื•ืข ื–ื” ืงื•ืจื”?
05:00
It happens because people are not that good
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ื–ื” ืงื•ืจื” ืžืคื ื™ ืฉืื ืฉื™ื ืœื ื›ืœ ื›ืš ืžื•ืฆืœื—ื™ื
05:03
at assessing risks rationally.
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ื‘ื”ืขืจื›ืช ืกื™ื›ื•ื ื™ื ืจืฆื™ื•ื ืืœื™ืช.
05:06
Let me give you an example.
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ืืชืŸ ื“ื•ื’ืžื,
05:09
When I arranged my flight to come here,
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ื›ืืฉืจ ืืจื’ื ืชื™ ืืช ื”ื˜ื™ืกื” ืฉืœื™ ืœื›ืืŸ,
05:11
I had to decide if I wanted to buy travel insurance.
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ื”ื™ื” ืขืœื™ ืœื”ื—ืœื™ื˜ ืื ืื ื™ ืžืขื•ื ื™ื ืช ืœืจื›ื•ืฉ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ื ืกื™ืขื•ืช.
05:16
Rationally, I should have based this decision on several considerations:
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ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืจืฆื™ื•ื ืืœื™, ื”ื™ื” ืขืœื™ ืœื‘ืกืก ืืช ื”ื”ื—ืœื˜ื” ืขืœ ืžืกืคืจ ืฉื™ืงื•ืœื™ื:
05:21
the price of the policy, of course,
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ืžื—ื™ืจ ื”ืคื•ืœื™ืกื”, ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ.
05:24
the value of my luggage,
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ืขืจืš ื”ืžื–ื•ื•ื“ื” ืฉืœื™,
05:26
the aggravation that I'm likely to experience
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ืื™ ื”ื ืขื™ืžื•ืช ืฉืื ื™ ืฆืคื•ื™ื” ืœื”ืจื’ื™ืฉ
05:29
if my luggage gets lost.
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ืื ื”ืžื–ื•ื•ื“ื” ืฉืœื™ ืชืœืš ืœืื™ื‘ื•ื“.
05:31
And of course, the likelihood of such an event, right?
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ื•ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ, ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ ืœืžืื•ืจืข ื›ื–ื”, ื ื›ื•ืŸ?
05:35
But most of the time, we're just too busy to make such rational calculations.
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ืื‘ืœ ืจื‘ ื”ื–ืžืŸ ืื ื—ื ื• ืคืฉื•ื˜ ืขืกื•ืงื™ื ืžื™ื“ื™ ื‘ืฉื‘ื™ืœ ืœืขืจื•ืš ื—ื™ืฉื•ื‘ื™ื ื›ืืœื”.
05:40
And anyway,
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ื•ืžืžื™ืœื,
05:41
I doubt that Lufthansa are very keen to share their damage statistics with me.
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ืกืคืง ืื ืœื•ืคื˜ื”ื ื–ื” ื™ืฉืžื—ื• ืœื—ืœื•ืง ืืช ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืกื˜ื™ืงื•ืช ื”ืื•ื‘ื“ืŸ ืฉืœื”ื ืื™ืชื™.
05:46
So what do we do instead?
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ืื– ืžื” ืื ื—ื ื• ืขื•ืฉื™ื ื‘ืžืงื•ื?
05:48
We rely on our intuition.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ื ืกืžื›ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ืื™ื ื˜ื•ืื™ืฆื™ื” ืฉืœื ื•.
05:51
So how do we evaluate risks intuitively?
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ืื– ื›ื™ืฆื“ ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืขืจื™ื›ื™ื ืกื™ื›ื•ื ื™ื ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืื™ื ื˜ื•ืื™ื˜ื™ื‘ื™?
05:56
We start by imagining the outcomes that we fear.
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ืื ื• ืžืชื—ื™ืœื™ื ื‘ืœื“ืžื™ื™ืŸ ืืช ื”ืชื•ืฆืื•ืช ืžื”ืŸ ืื ื• ื—ื•ืฉืฉื™ื.
06:00
So here I am,
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ืื– ื”ื™ื ื” ืื ื™,
06:01
it's late at night, I'm sitting at this airport,
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ื‘ืฉืขืช ืœื™ืœื” ืžืื•ื—ืจืช, ื™ื•ืฉื‘ืช ื‘ืฉื“ื” ืชืขื•ืคื”,
06:04
all the other passengers already collected their luggage and left.
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ื›ืœ ื”ื ื•ืกืขื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื™ื ื›ื‘ืจ ืืกืคื• ืืช ื”ืžื˜ืขืŸ ื•ืขื–ื‘ื•,
06:09
I realize that my own suitcase is now probably heading to the North Pole.
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ืื ื™ ืžื‘ื™ื ื” ืฉื”ืžื–ื•ื•ื“ื” ืฉืœื™ ื›ื ื™ืจืื” ื‘ื“ืจืš ืœืงื•ื˜ื‘ ื”ืฆืคื•ื ื™.
06:15
Thinking about this scenario creates anxiety,
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ื”ืžื—ืฉื‘ื” ืขืœ ื”ืชืจื—ื™ืฉ ื”ื–ื” ื™ื•ืฆืจืช ื—ืจื“ื”,
06:18
and then we use the level of anxiety that we feel
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ื•ืื– ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืฉืชืžืฉื™ื ื‘ืจืžืช ื”ื—ืจื“ื” ืฉืื ื• ื—ืฉื™ื
06:22
in order to assess the probability.
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ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœื”ืขืจื™ืš ืืช ื”ื”ืกืชื‘ืจื•ืช.
06:25
So if I'm feeling terrified,
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ืื– ืื ืื ื™ ื—ืฉื” ื—ืจื“ื” ื’ื“ื•ืœื” ืžืื“,
06:27
I will infer that the risk of such an event is quite high.
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ืื ื™ ืืกื™ืง ืฉื”ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ืื™ืจื•ืข ื›ื–ื” ื’ื‘ื•ื” ืœืžื“ื™.
06:34
But you see, this is an intuitive risk estimate.
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ืื‘ืœ, ืฉื™ืžื• ืœื‘, ื–ื• ื”ืขืจื›ืช ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ืื™ื ื˜ื•ืื™ื˜ื™ื‘ื™ืช.
06:37
It is entirely psychological and emotion-based,
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ื”ืขืจื›ื” ืคืกื™ื›ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ืช ืฉืžืชื‘ืกืกืช ืœื—ืœื•ื˜ื™ืŸ ืขืœ ืจื’ืฉื•ืช,
06:41
which is why it is also highly susceptible to the magic of insurance.
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ื”ื™ื ื’ื ืจื’ื™ืฉื” ืžืื“ ืœืงืกื ืฉืœ ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—.
06:47
Insurance reduces our anxiety.
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ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ืžืงื˜ื™ืŸ ืืช ืจืžืช ื”ื—ืจื“ื” ืฉืœื ื•.
06:51
First, because the outcomes that we imagine are suddenly less grim.
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ืงื•ื“ื ื›ืœ ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉื”ืชื•ืฆืื•ืช ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืžื“ืžื™ื™ื ื™ื ื—ืžื•ืจื•ืช ืคื—ื•ืช.
06:57
Yes, I'm sitting at the airport, yes, it's late at night,
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ื›ืŸ, ืื ื™ ื™ื•ืฉื‘ืช ื‘ืฉื“ื” ืชืขื•ืคื”, ื›ืŸ, ืžืื•ื—ืจ ื‘ืœื™ืœื”,
07:00
all the other passengers had left,
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ื•ื›ืœ ื”ื ื•ืกืขื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื™ื ื›ื‘ืจ ืขื–ื‘ื•,
07:02
but there will be this guy there, they would give me a voucher,
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ืื‘ืœ ื™ื”ื™ื” ืฉื ืžื™ืฉื”ื•, ืฉื™ืชืŸ ืœื™ ืฉื•ื‘ืจ,
07:06
eventually, I will get compensated, it's OK.
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ื•ื‘ืกื•ืคื• ืฉืœ ื“ื‘ืจ ืืงื‘ืœ ืคื™ืฆื•ื™, ื–ื” ื‘ืกื“ืจ.
07:11
Also, because we are conditioned to associate insurance with safety,
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ื›ืžื• ื›ืŸ, ืื ื—ื ื• ืžื•ืชื ื™ื ืœืงืฉืจ ื‘ื™ืŸ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ืœืชื—ื•ืฉืช ื‘ื™ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ,
07:17
security, tranquility and peace of mind.
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ืฉืœื•ื•ื” ื•ืฉืงื˜ ื ืคืฉื™.
07:22
And if I'm feeling less anxious,
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ื•ืื ืื ื™ ื—ืฉื” ืคื—ื•ืช ื—ืจื“ื”,
07:25
I would infer that the risk is not that high.
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ืืกื™ืง ืฉื”ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ืื™ื ื ื• ื›ื” ื’ื‘ื•ื”.
07:27
So there you have it.
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ืื– ื”ื™ื ื”,
07:29
I have insurance, and the risk is gone.
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ื™ืฉ ืœื™ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—, ื•ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ื ืขืœื.
07:33
But why do we associate insurance with peace of mind?
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ืื‘ืœ ืžื“ื•ืข ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืงืฉืจื™ื ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ืœืฉืงื˜ ื ืคืฉื™?
07:38
Well, first, in many languages,
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ืงื•ื“ื ื›ืœ, ื‘ืžืกืคืจ ืจื‘ ืฉืœ ืฉืคื•ืช,
07:40
this is exactly what the word "insurance" means.
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ื–ื• ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง ืžืฉืžืขื•ืช ื”ืžื™ืœื” โ€œื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—โ€
07:43
It comes from the word "sure," which means lack of doubts,
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ืžืงื•ืจื” ื‘ืžื•ืฉื’ โ€œืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื‘ื˜ื•ื—โ€ ืฉืคื™ืจื•ืฉื• ื”ืขื“ืจ ืกืคืง,
07:49
no unknowns that would sneak up and bite you in the future, right?
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ื”ืขื“ืจ ืื™ืจื•ืขื™ื ื‘ืœืชื™ ื™ื“ื•ืขื™ื ืฉื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ืชื’ื ื‘ ื•ืœื ืฉื•ืš ืื•ืชื ื• ื‘ืขืชื™ื“, ื ื›ื•ืŸ?
07:55
But also because traditionally,
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ืื‘ืœ ื’ื ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืžืกื•ืจืชื™,
07:57
this is how insurance was promoted.
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ื›ืš ืงื™ื“ืžื• ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—.
08:02
Let me show you an example.
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ืืจืื” ืœื›ื ื“ื•ื’ืžื.
08:05
This is a lovely advertising toy
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ื”ื ื” ืฆืขืฆื•ืข ืคื™ืจืกื•ืžื™ ื—ื‘ื™ื‘
08:07
that was distributed to visitors at the British exhibition in 1924.
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ืฉื—ื•ืœืง ืœืžื‘ืงืจื™ื ื‘ืชืขืจื•ื›ื” ื”ื‘ืจื™ื˜ื™ืช ื‘ 1924.
08:15
So you see this guy and he looks terrified.
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ืืชื ืจื•ืื™ื ืื™ืฉ ืฉื ืจืื” ืžื‘ื•ื”ืœ.
08:19
He is barraged by the bricks of doom,
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ื”ื•ื ืžื•ืคืฆืฅ ื‘ืœื‘ื ื™ ืื‘ื“ื•ืŸ,
08:22
fire, accident, falling on his head.
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ืฉืจืคื•ืช, ืชืื•ื ื•ืช, ื ื•ืคืœื™ื ืขืœ ืจืืฉื•.
08:27
And the tag on the bottom,
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ื•ื‘ืชื•ื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื”
08:28
it reads "anxiety," which perfectly describes the guy's expression.
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ื›ืชื•ื‘ โ€œื—ืจื“ื”โ€œ, ืชืื•ืจ ืžื“ื•ื™ื™ืง ืฉืœ ื”ื‘ืขืช ืคื ื™ื•.
08:33
But if you pull on that tag,
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ืžื•ืฉื›ื™ื ืืช ื”ืชื•ื™ืช,
08:35
something slides inside, and the guy transforms.
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ืžืฉื”ื• ืžื—ืœื™ืง ื‘ืคื ื™ื, ื•ืžืจืื” ื”ืื™ืฉ ืžืฉืชื ื”.
08:41
First, he now has the protection of the Prudential insurance helmet,
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ื”ื•ื ืžื•ื’ืŸ ื‘ืงืกื“ืช โ€œื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ืคืจื•ื“ื ืฉืœโ€œ,
08:48
and his expression is changed into a smile.
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ื”ื‘ืขืช ืคื ื™ื• ืžืฉืชื ื” ืœื—ื™ื•ืš
08:50
You know why?
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ืืชื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืœืžื”?
08:51
Because Prudential insurance dispels anxiety.
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ืžืคื ื™ ืฉ โ€œื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ืคืจื•ื“ื ืฉืœ ืžืคื™ื’ ื—ืจื“ื”โ€.
08:56
Modern images of insurance convey the same message.
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ื“ื™ืžื•ื™ื™ื ืžื•ื“ืจื ื™ื ืฉืœ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ืžืขื‘ื™ืจื™ื ืืช ืื•ืชื• ื”ืžืกืจ.
09:01
Insurance logos often incorporate supporting hand below,
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ืกืžืœื™ืœื™ื ืฉืœ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ื›ื•ืœืœื™ื ืœืขื™ืชื™ื ืงืจื•ื‘ื•ืช ื™ื“ื™ื™ื ืชื•ืžื›ื•ืช ืžืœืžื˜ื”,
09:05
and umbrellas above, ultimate protection.
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ื•ืžื˜ืจื™ื•ืช ืžืœืžืขืœื”, ื”ื’ื ื” ืžื•ืฉืœืžืช.
09:08
And then travel insurance ads.
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ื•ืคืจืกื•ืžื•ืช ืœื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ื ืกื™ืขื•ืช,
09:12
They could easily be mistaken for vacation brochures, right?
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ื ืจืื•ืช ื›ืžื• ืขืœื•ื ื™ ื—ื•ืคืฉื”, ื ื›ื•ืŸ?
09:16
Romantic couples, exotic islands, palm trees.
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ื–ื•ื’ื•ืช ืจื•ืžื ื˜ื™ื, ืื™ื™ื ืืงื–ื•ื˜ื™ื, ืขืฆื™ ืชืžืจ.
09:21
And if for some reason you need images of smiling,
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ื•ืื ืžืฉื•ื ืžื” ืืชื ื–ืงื•ืงื™ื ืœืชืžื•ื ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืื ืฉื™ื ืžื—ื™ื™ื›ื™ื,
09:25
happy people wearing white,
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ืžืื•ืฉืจื™ื, ืœื‘ื•ืฉื™ื ืœื‘ืŸ,
09:28
do an image Google search with the words "pension plans"
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ืขืจื›ื• ื—ื™ืคื•ืฉ ื‘ื’ื•ื’ืœ ืชืžื•ื ื•ืช, ืขื ื”ืžื™ืœื™ื โ€œืชื›ื ื™ื•ืช ืคื ืกื™ื”โ€
09:32
or "health insurance."
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ืื• โ€œื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ื‘ืจื™ืื•ืชโ€œ.
09:35
Insurance ads rarely show you sick people, smashed cars, torn suitcase.
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ื ื“ื™ืจ ืฉืคืจืกื•ืžื•ืช ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ื™ืจืื• ืื ืฉื™ื ื—ื•ืœื™ื, ืžื›ื•ื ื™ื•ืช ืžืจื•ืกืงื•ืช, ืžื–ื•ื•ื“ื•ืช ืงืจื•ืขื•ืช.
09:41
The message is loud and clear:
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ื”ืžืกืจ ื—ื–ืง ื•ื‘ืจื•ืจ:
09:43
You have insurance,
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ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—,
09:44
all is well in the world.
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ื”ื›ืœ ื˜ื•ื‘ ื‘ืขื•ืœื.
09:49
However, to get us to buy insurance,
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ืื‘ืœ, ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœื’ืจื•ื ืœื ื• ืœืงื ื•ืช ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—,
09:52
the promoters must also work our fears.
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ื”ืžืคืจืกืžื™ื ื—ื™ื™ื‘ื™ื ืœืขืจื‘ ื’ื ืืช ื”ืคื—ื“ื™ื ืฉืœื ื•.
09:58
Which is why, right after you paid a lot of money
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ื•ื–ื• ื”ืกื™ื‘ื” ืœื›ืš, ืฉืžื™ื“ ืื—ืจื™ ืฉืฉืœืžืชื ื›ืกืฃ ืจื‘
10:01
for a top of the line refrigerator,
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ืขื‘ื•ืจ ืžืงืจืจ ื™ื•ืงืจืชื™,
10:04
the same seller who, just moments ago,
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ืื•ืชื• ืžื•ื›ืจ, ืฉืจืง ืœืคื ื™ ืจื’ืขื™ื ืžื•ืขื˜ื™ื,
10:06
were explaining how reliable this product is,
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ื”ืกื‘ื™ืจ ืขื“ ื›ืžื” ื”ืžื•ืฆืจ ืืžื™ืŸ,
10:10
is now telling you that it may break down at any moment,
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ืื•ืžืจ ืœื›ื ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ืฉื”ื•ื ืขืœื•ืœ ืœื”ืชืงืœืงืœ ื‘ื›ืœ ืจื’ืข,
10:13
which is why you should buy the extended warranty.
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ื›ื“ืื™ ืฉืชืงื ื• ืชืขื•ื“ืช ืื—ืจื™ื•ืช ืžื•ืจื—ื‘ืช.
10:17
And with some credit cards, you could get free travel insurance.
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ื•ืขื ืกื•ื’ื™ื ืžืกื•ื™ื™ืžื™ื ืฉืœ ื›ืจื˜ื™ืกื™ ืืฉืจืื™, ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืงื‘ืœ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ื ืกื™ืขื•ืช ื—ื™ื ื.
10:21
All you need to do is to call the agent.
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ื›ืœ ืฉืขืœื™ื›ื ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื”ื•ื ืœื”ืชืงืฉืจ ืœืกื•ื›ืŸ.
10:24
But when you make this call,
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ืื‘ืœ ื›ืืฉืจ ืืชื ืขื•ืจื›ื™ื ืืช ื”ืฉื™ื—ื”,
10:25
you are told, yeah, but the free deal is only for the basic plan.
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ื ืืžืจ ืœื›ื ืฉื”ืขืกืงื” ื”ื—ื™ื ืžื™ืช ื”ื™ื ืจืง ืขื‘ื•ืจ ืชื•ื›ื ื™ืช ื”ื›ื™ืกื•ื™ ื”ื‘ืกื™ืกื™ืช.
10:32
Basic plan doesn't sound good already, right?
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โ€œืชื•ื›ื ื™ืช ื›ื™ืกื•ื™ ื‘ืกื™ืกื™ืชโ€ ื›ื‘ืจ ืœื ื ืฉืžืข ื˜ื•ื‘ - ื ื›ื•ืŸ?
10:35
And then you get to hear a list of things that you are not covered against,
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ื•ืื– ืืชื ืฉื•ืžืขื™ื ืจืฉื™ืžื” ืฉืœ ืื™ืจื•ืขื™ื ืฉืื™ื ื›ื ืžื•ื’ื ื™ื ื‘ืคื ื™ื”ื,
10:40
like fires and heart transplant and floods, etc.
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ื›ืžื• ืฉืจืคื•ืช, ื”ืฉืชืœืช ืœื‘, ื”ืฆืคื•ืช, ื•ื›ื•โ€™.
10:47
But if you pay one more dollar a day, right?
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ืื‘ืœ, ืื ืชื•ืกื™ืคื• ื“ื•ืœืจ ืื—ื“ ืœื™ื•ื, ื ื›ื•ืŸ?
10:51
And your active imagination does the rest,
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ื›ื— ื”ื“ื™ืžื™ื•ืŸ ืฉืœื›ื ืžืฉืœื™ื ืืช ื”ืžืœืื›ื”.
10:54
with each item on the list, your anxiety is mounting,
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ืขื ื›ืœ ืคืจื™ื˜ ื‘ืจืฉื™ืžื”, ื”ื—ืจื“ื” ืฉืœื›ื ืžืชื’ื‘ืจืช,
10:58
and you don't ask yourself, "Hey, I'm going to Paris,
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ื•ืืชื ืœื ืฉื•ืืœื™ื ืืช ืขืฆืžื›ื, ื”ื™, ืื ื—ื ื• ื ื•ืกืขื™ื ืœืคืจื™ื–,
11:02
why would I care about a tsunami?"
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ืœืžื” ืื ื—ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžื•ื“ืื’ื™ื ืžืฆื•ื ืืžื™?
11:05
You pay the dollar, and all is well in the world again.
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ืืชื ืžืฉืœืžื™ื ืืช ื”ื“ื•ืœืจ, ื•ืฉื•ื‘ ื”ื›ืœ ื˜ื•ื‘ ื‘ืขื•ืœื.
11:11
In fact,
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ืœืžืขืฉื”,
11:12
just realizing that we are not covered against something
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ืจืง ื”ื”ื‘ื ื” ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืœื ืžื›ื•ืกื™ื ื›ื ื’ื“ ืžืฉื”ื•
11:16
is enough to distort our perception of risk.
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ืžืกืคื™ืงื” ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœืขื•ื•ืช ืืช ืชืคื™ืกืช ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ืฉืœื ื•.
11:20
I once asked people to imagine, in one of my studies,
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ืคืขื ื‘ืงืฉืชื™ ืžืื ืฉื™ื ืœื“ืžื™ื™ืŸ, ื‘ืื—ื“ ืžื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ืฉืœื™,
11:24
that they're going to go on a trip
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ืฉื”ื ืขื•ืžื“ื™ื ืœื ืกื•ืข ืœื˜ื™ื•ืœ,
11:26
and they plan to buy travel insurance at the airport.
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ื•ื”ื ืžืชื›ื ื ื™ื ืœืงื ื•ืช ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ื ืกื™ืขื•ืช ื‘ืฉื“ื” ื”ืชืขื•ืคื”,
11:30
But by the time they reach the counter,
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ืื‘ืœ ื›ืืฉืจ ื”ื ืžื’ื™ืขื™ื ืœื“ื•ื›ืŸ,
11:33
boarding had already started,
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ืขืœื™ื” ืœืžื˜ื•ืก ื›ื‘ืจ ื”ื—ืœื”,
11:35
and they have to board that airplane painfully aware that they are not covered.
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ื•ืขืœื™ื”ื ืœืขืœื•ืช ืœืžื˜ื•ืก, ื›ืฉื”ื ืžื•ื“ืขื™ื ืœืžื’ื™ื ืช ืœื‘ื, ืฉื”ื ืœื ืžื›ื•ืกื™ื.
11:42
And then I asked them to assess all kinds of travel-related risks.
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ื•ืื–, ื”ื ื”ืชื‘ืงืฉื• ืœื”ืขืจื™ืš ื›ืœ ืžื™ื ื™ ืกื™ื›ื•ื ื™ื ืฉืงืฉื•ืจื™ื ืœื ืกื™ืขื•ืช.
11:46
And these were dramatically inflated,
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ื”ื”ืขืจื›ื•ืช ื”ื™ื• ืžื ื•ืคื—ื•ืช ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื“ืจืžื˜ื™,
11:50
compared to the ratings of people who did have insurance.
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ื‘ื”ืฉื•ื•ืื” ืœื”ืขืจื›ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืื ืฉื™ื ืฉื›ืŸ ื”ื™ื• ืžื‘ื•ื˜ื—ื™ื.
11:54
For example, lost luggage,
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ืœื“ื•ื’ืžื, ืื•ื‘ื“ืŸ ืžื–ื•ื•ื“ื•ืช,
11:56
the risk of lost luggage, almost 50 percent.
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ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ืœืื•ื‘ื“ืŸ ืžื–ื•ื•ื“ื•ืช, ื›ืžืขื˜ 50 ืื—ื•ื–.
12:00
What are the chances that you will need hospitalization?
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ืžื”ื ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ื™ื ืฉืชื–ื“ืงืงื• ืœืื™ืฉืคื•ื–?
12:03
Almost 45 percent, well, 45 percent.
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ื›ืžืขื˜ 45 ืื—ื•ื–. 45 ืื—ื•ื– ื‘ืขืฆื.
12:07
And how about, you will need to be rescued?
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ื•ืžื” ื‘ื“ื‘ืจ โ€œืชื–ื“ืงืงื• ืœื—ื™ืœื•ืฅ ื•ื”ืฆืœื”โ€œ?
12:10
Thirty-one percent.
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31 ืื—ื•ื–.
12:11
I remember the first time I saw this data, I was speechless.
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ืื ื™ ื–ื•ื›ืจืช ืืช ื”ืคืขื ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืฉืจืื™ืชื™ ืืช ื”ื ืชื•ื ื™ื, ื”ื™ื™ืชื™ ื”ืžื•ืžื”.
12:14
I was thinking,
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ื—ืฉื‘ืชื™,
12:16
"Guys, if this is what you believe, why would you ever leave home"
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โ€œื—ื‘ืจื™ื, ืื ื–ื” ืžื” ืฉืืชื ืžืืžื™ื ื™ื, ืžื“ื•ืข ื‘ื›ืœืœ ืœืขื–ื•ื‘ ืืช ื”ื‘ื™ืช?โ€
12:20
you know?
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ืžื‘ื™ื ื™ื?
12:21
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
12:24
Yeah.
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ื›ืŸ.
12:25
Boarding an airplane with no insurance is tempting fate.
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ืขืœื™ื” ืขืœ ืžื˜ื•ืก ืœืœื ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ื”ื™ื ื”ืชื’ืจื•ืช ื‘ื’ื•ืจืœ.
12:31
It's like realizing that your insurance policy had just expired
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ื–ื” ื›ืžื• ืœื“ืขืช ืฉืชื•ืงืฃ ื”ืคื•ืœื™ืกื” ืฉืœื›ื ืคื’ ื–ื” ืขืชื”,
12:35
and not renewing it?
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ื•ืœื ืœื—ื“ืฉ ืื•ืชื”.
12:38
Grave danger, indeed.
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ืกื›ื ื” ื’ื“ื•ืœื” ืžืื“.
12:40
Your appliances, they know, you know.
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ืžื›ืฉื™ืจื™ ื”ื—ืฉืžืœ ืฉืœื›ื, ื”ื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื.
12:44
So we buy insurance and restore our peace of mind.
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ืื– ืื ื—ื ื• ืงื•ื ื™ื ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—, ื•ืžื—ื–ื™ืจื™ื ืœืขืฆืžื ื• ืฉืœื•ื•ื” ื ืคืฉื™ืช.
12:49
And now you're probably asking yourself,
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ืื‘ืœ ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ืืชื ื‘ื•ื“ืื™ ืฉื•ืืœื™ื ืืช ืขืฆืžื›ื,
12:50
"But peace of mind is good.
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โ€œ ืื‘ืœ ืฉืœื•ื•ื” ื ืคืฉื™ืช ื–ื” ื˜ื•ื‘,
12:52
What's wrong with peace of mind," right?
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ืžื” ืจืข ื‘ืฉืœื•ื•ื” ื ืคืฉื™ืช?โ€ ื ื›ื•ืŸ?
12:55
"What's the problem?"
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โ€œืžื” ื”ื‘ืขื™ื”?โ€
12:57
The problem is that we are highly likely to be over-insured.
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ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ื”ื™ื ืฉืกื‘ื™ืจ ืฉื ื”ื™ื” ืžื‘ื•ื˜ื—ื™ื ื™ืชืจ ืขืœ ื”ืžื™ื“ื”.
13:03
What does it mean?
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ืœืžื” ื”ื›ื•ื•ื ื”?
13:04
Well, first,
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ืงื•ื“ื ื›ืœ,
13:06
we may be protecting ourselves against really unlikely events
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ื™ืชื›ืŸ ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืžื’ื ื™ื ืขืœ ืขืฆืžื™ื ื• ืžืคื ื™ ืžืื•ืจืขื•ืช ืฉืกื‘ื™ืจื•ืชื ื ืžื•ื›ื” ืžืื“
13:10
like a tsunami in Paris.
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ื›ืžื• ืฆื•ื ืืžื™ ื‘ืคืจื™ื–.
13:13
Or we may be paying a lot to prevent a trivial loss.
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ืื• ื™ืชื›ืŸ ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืžืฉืœืžื™ื ื”ืจื‘ื” ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœืžื ื•ืข ืื•ื‘ื“ืŸ ื˜ืจื™ื•ื•ื™ืืœื™.
13:19
Does it really make sense to extend the warranty on an old washing machine?
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ื”ืื ื‘ืืžืช ื”ื’ื™ื•ื ื™ ืœื”ืืจื™ืš ืืช ื”ืื—ืจื™ื•ืช ืขืœ ืžื›ื•ื ืช ื›ื‘ื™ืกื” ื™ืฉื ื”?
13:24
And if you will examine your own policies back at home,
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ื•ืื ืชื‘ื“ืงื• ืืช ืคื•ืœื™ืกื•ืช ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ืฉืœื›ื ื‘ื‘ื™ืช,
13:28
many of you will find that you have redundant coverage.
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ืจื‘ื™ื ืžื›ื ื™ื’ืœื• ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื›ื ื›ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื ื›ืคื•ืœื™ื.
13:32
You are paying several policies on the same event.
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ืฉืืชื ืžืฉืœืžื™ื ืžืกืคืจ ืคื•ืœื™ืกื•ืช ืœื›ืกื•ืช ืืช ืื•ืชื• ืžืื•ืจืข.
13:36
Many of you do that.
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ืจื‘ื™ื ืžื›ื ืขื•ืฉื™ื ื–ืืช.
13:38
Me included, and I should know better.
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ื›ื•ืœืœ ืื•ืชื™, ื•ืื ื™ ืืžื•ืจื” ืœื“ืขืช ื˜ื•ื‘ ื™ื•ืชืจ.
13:42
So ...
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ืื–....
13:45
This kind of behavior can get people in debt,
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ื”ืชื ื”ื’ื•ืช ื›ื–ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื” ืœื”ื›ื ื™ืก ืื ืฉื™ื ืœื—ื•ื‘ื•ืช,
13:48
and even if they don't,
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ื•ื’ื ืื ืœื,
13:50
this is money that we could spend in far more pleasurable ways, right?
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ื–ื”ื• ื›ืกืฃ ืฉื™ื›ื•ืœื ื• ืœื‘ื–ื‘ื– ื‘ื“ืจื›ื™ื ืžื”ื ื•ืช ื”ืจื‘ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ - ืœื ื›ืŸ?
13:55
At least I can.
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ืœืคื—ื•ืช, ืื ื™ ื”ื™ื™ืชื™ ื™ื›ื•ืœื”.
13:57
But selling peace of mind is a problem for the insurance companies as well.
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ืื‘ืœ ืžื›ื™ืจืช ืฉืœื•ื•ื” ื ืคืฉื™ืช ื‘ืขื™ื™ืชื™ืช ื’ื ืขื‘ื•ืจ ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—.
14:02
Why?
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ืžื“ื•ืข?
14:04
The insurance companies are well aware of the problem called โ€œmoral hazardโ€.
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ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ืžื•ื“ืขื•ืช ืœื‘ืขื™ื” ื”ืžื›ื•ื ื” โ€œืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ืžื•ืจืืœื™โ€
14:08
You see, when people are insured,
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ืืชื ืžื‘ื™ื ื™ื, ื›ืืฉืจ ืœืื ืฉื™ื ื™ืฉ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—,
14:11
they become negligent.
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ื”ื ื”ื•ืคื›ื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืจืฉืœื ื™ื™ื.
14:13
They start leaving their valuables out in the open.
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ืžืชื—ื™ืœื™ื ืœื”ืฉืื™ืจ ืืช ื—ืคืฆื™ ื”ืขืจืš ืฉืœื”ื ื‘ืžืงื•ืžื•ืช ื’ืœื•ื™ื™ื,
14:16
They don't check their fire alarms, they drive faster.
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ืœื ื‘ื•ื“ืงื™ื ืžืขืจื›ื•ืช ื’ื™ืœื•ื™ ืืฉ, ื ื•ื”ื’ื™ื ืžื”ืจ ื™ื•ืชืจ.
14:20
In short, they act in ways which put them at greater risk.
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ื‘ืงื™ืฆื•ืจ, ืคื•ืขืœื™ื ื‘ื“ืจื›ื™ื ืฉืฉืžื•ืช ืื•ืชื ื‘ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ื’ื‘ื•ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ.
14:25
Now, the insurance companies,
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ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—,
14:27
they believe that we behave like that
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ืžืืžื™ื ื•ืช ืฉืื ืฉื™ื ื ื•ื”ื’ื™ื ื›ืš
14:30
because we know that if something happens,
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ื›ื™ ื”ื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืฉืื ื™ืงืจื” ืžืฉื”ื•,
14:32
someone else will pay.
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ืžื™ืฉื”ื• ืื—ืจ ื™ืฉืœื.
14:34
Which is why many policies include deductibles.
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ื•ื–ื• ื”ืกื™ื‘ื” ืœื›ืš ืฉื”ืจื‘ื” ืคื•ืœื™ืกื•ืช ื›ื•ืœืœื•ืช โ€œื”ืฉืชืชืคื•ืช ืขืฆืžื™ืชโ€
14:38
That's the money that comes out of your pocket, right?
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ื›ืกืฃ ืฉื™ืฉื•ืœื ืžื›ื™ืกื›ื, ื›ืŸ?
14:42
So the deductibles are there to make sure
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ืžื˜ืจืช ื”ื”ืฉืชืชืคื•ืช ื”ืขืฆืžื™ืช ื”ื™ื ืœื•ื•ื“ื
14:45
that some of the risk will stay with the client.
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ืฉื—ืœืง ืžื”ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ื™ืฉืืจ ืืฆืœ ื”ืœืงื•ื—.
14:49
But based on the research that I just shared with you,
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ื”ืชื‘ืกืก ืขืœ ื”ืžื—ืงืจ ืฉื›ืจื’ืข ืฉื™ืชืคืชื™ ืื™ืชื›ื,
14:53
it is entirely possible
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ื™ืชื›ืŸ ืœื—ืœื•ื˜ื™ืŸ
14:55
that the reason that we are careless
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ืฉื”ืกื™ื‘ื” ืฉืื ื• ื”ื•ืคื›ื™ื ืจืฉืœื ื™ื™ื
14:56
is not just that we think that someone else will pay,
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ืื™ื ื ื” ืจืง ื”ืžื—ืฉื‘ื” ืฉืžื™ืฉื”ื• ืื—ืจ ื™ืฉืœื,
15:00
but it's also the magical belief that if I have insurance,
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ืืœื ื’ื ื”ืืžื•ื ื” ื”ืžืื’ื™ืช ืฉืื ื™ืฉ ืœื™ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—,
15:04
it's not going to rain.
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ืœื ื™ืจื“ ื’ืฉื.
15:07
The damage is not going to happen,
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ืœื ื™ื”ื™ื” ื ื–ืง.
15:10
and magical thinking is not susceptible to deductibles.
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ื•ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืžืื’ื™ืช, ืื™ื ื ื” ืžื•ืฉืคืขืช ืžื”ืฉืชืชืคื•ืช ืขืฆืžื™ืช.
15:18
What are the lessons to be learned?
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ืžื”ื• ื”ืœืงื— ืฉื ื™ืชืŸ ืœื”ืคื™ืง?
15:20
For us, for you?
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ืขื‘ื•ืจื™ื ื•, ืขื‘ื•ืจื›ื,
15:23
Next time you consider buying insurance,
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ื‘ืคืขื ื”ื‘ืื” ืฉืืชื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ืขืœ ืงื ื™ื™ืช ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—,
15:26
remember Kafka.
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ื–ื›ืจื• ืืช ืงืคืงื.
15:28
Ask yourself:
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ืฉืืœื• ืืช ืขืฆืžื™ื›ื:
15:30
Am I buying insurance for the right reasons?
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โ€œื”ืื ืื ื™ ืงื•ื ื” ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ืžื”ืกื™ื‘ื•ืช ื”ื ื›ื•ื ื•ืช?โ€
15:34
Am I making a sound economic decision
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ื”ืื ืื ื™ ืžืงื‘ืœ ื”ื—ืœื˜ื” ื›ืœื›ืœื™ืช ื ื‘ื•ื ื”
15:36
or merely trying to please my psyche?
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ืื• ืกืชื ืžื ืกื” ืœื”ืฉืงื™ื˜ ืืช ื ืคืฉื™?
15:40
As for the insurance companies,
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ื•ื‘ืืฉืจ ืœื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—,
15:42
I hope they will consider changing their message.
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ืื ื™ ืžืงื•ื•ื” ืฉื”ืŸ ืชืฉืงื•ืœื ื” ืœืฉื ื•ืช ืืช ื”ืžืกืจ ืฉืœื”ืŸ.
15:45
Don't sell magical happiness.
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ืืœ ืชืžื›ืจื• ืœื ื• ืื•ืฉืจ ืงืกื•ื,
15:47
Encourage us to buy insurance when it is economically rational
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ืขื•ื“ื“ื• ืื•ืชื ื• ืœืงื ื•ืช ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ื›ืืฉืจ ื™ืฉ ื‘ื–ื” ื”ื’ื™ื•ืŸ ื›ืœื›ืœื™,
15:53
and the responsible thing to do.
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ื•ื–ื” ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ืื—ืจืื™ ืœืขืฉื•ืช.
15:57
And finally,
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ื•ืœื‘ืกื•ืฃ,
15:59
guys, I hope that next time someone says "I study insurance,"
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ื—ื‘ืจื™ื, ืื ื™ ืžืงื•ื•ื” ืฉื‘ืคืขื ื”ื‘ืื” ืฉืชืฉืžืขื• ืžืžื™ืฉื”ื• โ€œืื ื™ ื—ื•ืงืจ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื—,โ€
16:04
you would say, "Wonderful.
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ืชื’ื™ื“ื•, โ€œืžืขื•ืœื”,
16:06
Please tell me more."
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ืื ื ืกืคืจ ืœื™ ืขื•ื“.โ€
16:08
Thank you.
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ืชื•ื“ื” ืจื‘ื”.
16:10
(Applause)
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(ืชืฉื•ืื•ืช)
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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