How carbon capture networks could help curb climate change | Bas Sudmeijer

Transcriber: Leslie Gauthier Reviewer: Camille Martínez

翻译人员: Lermes M 校对人员: Ruan Xiu Ze 阮修泽

If you're in charge of a major metropolitan city,

如果你在掌管一个首要大城市，

it's almost a must these days to be sustainable.

自然资源的合理利用在当今几乎是必要的。

Us city dwellers pride ourselves

我们城市居民对于居住于一个在气候变化上采取 行动，并实现温室气体人工排放为零的地方，

on living in places that are taking action on climate change

and achieving net zero.

而感到自豪。

But what if you're Don Iveson?

但是如果你是唐·艾弗森呢？

You're the mayor of oil and gas town Edmonton, in northern Alberta, Canada.

你是位于加拿大亚伯达的汽油和天然气城埃德蒙顿的市长。

Or across the Atlantic,

或者跨过大西洋，

Holly Mumby-Croft,

最后的炼钢厂城市之一斯肯索普的 英国议会成员霍莉·蒙比克罗夫特。

UK member of parliament for Scunthorpe,

home to one of the last steel plants of Britain.

Or much smaller,

或者，小一些，

you're Dave Smiglewski.

你是戴夫·斯米格斯基。

You're the mayor of the little city of Granite Falls, Minnesota,

你是附近有着大规模酒精生产设施的位于 明尼苏达州的小城市花岗岩瀑布的市长。

with a large-scale ethanol production facility nearby.

All these places,

所有的这些地方，

no matter how far apart and how different in size,

无论它们相聚多远，尺寸差别有多大，

have something big in common:

它们都有一个很大的共同点：

millions of tons of greenhouse gas emissions

跟当地主要就业相关的数百万吨的温室气体排放。

linked to significant local employment.

And we're going to have to find a way

而我们要找到一个方式，

to maintain the critical economic and social functions of these towns

去维持这些城市的关键经济和社会功能，

if we're to have any hope of combating climate change.

如果我们想要找到和气候变化斗争的希望的话。

Not an easy feat,

这不是一个简单的事情，

if you think that we can't really put a solar panel on a gas processing facility

如果你觉得我们不太可以在天然气加工设施 和炼钢厂上直接放上一个太阳能板的话。

or a steel mill.

Fortunately, these places have another interesting thing in common,

幸运的是，这些地方还有其他有趣的共同点，

which might offer some hope to these local officials.

而这些共同点或许可以给这些当地官员一些希望。

The main sources of pollution in their areas

这些地区的污染的主要原因是

are in close proximity to rock formations

它们离可以捕困二氧化碳——

with the ability to trap carbon dioxide,

我们称之为CO2的温室气体——

the greenhouse gas we often call CO2.

的石头很近。

And this puts into reach a potential solution to both their problems:

而这给它们的的两个问题——污染和 就业——都提供了一个可能的解决办法。

pollution and employment.

It's called "carbon capture and storage."

它被称之为“碳捕获和收集”。

It's the process whereby we capture the CO2,

这是一个将燃烧矿物燃料产生的二氧化碳捕获的过程，

which results from burning fossil fuels,

before it's emitted into the atmosphere

在它被散发到大气中之前，

and instead bury it underground.

把它埋到地下。

Effectively, we take part of what we've extracted from the earth --

实际上，我们是把我们从地球取出的东西 ——

the carbon --

碳——

back to where it came from.

放回它原来的地方。

Now, this is not a new idea.

好，这不是一个新主意。

People have been experimenting with this technology for decades.

人们已经对于这项技术研究数十年了。

Today, however, there are very few operational carbon capture facilities

但是，现在在世界上，只有 极少数的运转的碳捕获设施，

in the world,

capturing about 14 million tons of CO2 equivalent per year.

每年大约捕获一千四百万吨的二氧化碳.

And while that may sound like a big number,

这可能听起来是个很大的数，

it's less than .1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

但是这不到全球温室气体排放的百分之零点一。

The International Energy Agency predicts

国际能源机构预测说，

that we need to capture between four and seven gigatons --

到2024年，我们每年需要捕获

that's four to seven billion metric tons --

of CO2 per year by 2040

四十亿到七十亿吨的二氧化碳，

to stay at or below two degrees Celsius warming.

去保持或者降低两摄氏度的变暖。

And that's a more than 100 to 200 times increase

而这是一个对于当今的碳捕获 能力，100到200倍的增长。

in today's carbon capture capacity.

To get us there will definitely require a price on greenhouse gas pollution.

去到达那，我们对于温室气体 污染肯定需要付出一定的代价。

There is a cost, and it needs to be settled.

有一个代价，且需要被解决。

And if we're not smart about it,

如果我们没有机智地应对它，

the price could be very high.

这个代价可以很高。

Should we then solely rely on the future improvements

我们应不应该只依赖于基础技术在未来的发展进步？

in the fundamental technology?

No.

不。

There is another way.

这里有另一个方法。

And it's the need for well-thought-through rollouts

正是经过仔细思考过的二氧化碳网络推广所需要的。

of what might be called CO2 networks.

In BCG, I lead a team of consultants,

我在BCG带领一个顾问、分析师和数据科学家的团队，

analysts and data scientists

whose focus is on advancing carbon capture utilization and storage.

他们集中于提高碳捕获的利用和保存。

By our estimates,

按照我们的推算，

if we want to hit the IEA forecast,

如果我们想达到国际能源机构的预测，

we need at least 110 billion dollars per year for the next 20 years

我们接下来二十年每年至少需要一千一百亿美元，

to build out the required carbon capture and storage infrastructure.

用来建造所需要的碳捕获和收集设施。

And there's only one way to bring down this essential but hefty price tag,

而只有一种方法可以拿到这个关键但沉重的标价：

which is to share the cost through networks.

通过网络分担这个钱。

Consider it the waste disposal service for CO2.

把它当作是二氧化碳的废物处理服务。

Our research suggests that policymakers and companies can learn a lot

我们的研究表明政策制定者 和公司可以通过看一个地图，

by looking at a map --

准确来说是很多地图，

lots of maps, actually,

去了解到很多东西。

both the ones that you and I look at on our smartphones

包括你我在手机上看到的

as well as the less common ones

和一些不那么常见的地图，

that show what lies below the surface in terms of depleted oil and gas fields

展示地表下面有什么，按照耗尽的油和天然气田，

and saline aquifers with the ability to trap CO2 underground.

以及有能力储存二氧化碳的盐水蓄水池。

And by looking at these maps,

通过看这些地图，

we can look for the optimal distances between both the sources of emissions,

我们可以查找两个排放物来源之间的最佳距离，

like Scunthorpe's steel plant,

像斯肯索普的炼钢厂，

and the sinks, like the saline aquifers of Alberta.

和亚伯达的盐水蓄水池一样的废物储存场。

We had a first go,

我们有了第一次的尝试，

and it yields interesting results.

它产生了有趣的结果。

By building up a detailed database of emitters

通过建造一个详细的放射物和储存场的数据库，

as well as potential sinks,

we found up to 200 clusters

我们找到了多达200个可以 按比例放大成为碳网络的组集。

that have the ability to be scaled up to low-cost carbon networks.

And they can capture more than one gigaton of emissions,

他们可以捕获大于十亿吨的放射物，

a big step to the four to seven gigatons that we need.

是达到我们需要的四十亿到七十亿吨的一大步。

And when we dig a little deeper,

当我们挖的更深一点时，

we find that optimization of distances between sinks and sources matters.

我们发现储蓄池和放射源的距离的适度是相关的。

It matters a lot in terms of the cost.

它在开销方面很要紧。

Network effects,

网络效应，

which is the mechanism whereby the benefits of a system to a user

这个机制指的是一个系统给一个使用人带来的好处，

increases with the amount of others' use of it,

会增加其他人使用它的数量，

can reduce the capture and storage cost of many emitters by up a third,

可以将很多放射体的捕获和 存放的开销减少三分之一，

to below 100 dollars per ton of CO2 captured,

到一吨二氧化碳少于100美金的价格，

based on current costs of technology.

基于现在科技的花费。

And while that is still a substantial cost,

在这个高昂的花费同时，

it starts to get in the range of carbon taxes and market mechanisms

它开始涉及到西部经济政府在思考，

that governments of Western economies are starting to think about

或者已经给到的

or have already put in place.

碳税和市场机制。

And we would not be able to achieve it

而我们无法达到它，

without collaboration and sharing of infrastructure

除非我们和邻近放射体合作及分享设施。

between neighboring emitters.

Let us walk through some of the cities I mentioned.

让我们过一遍我提到的一些城市。

In assessing areas to build CO2 networks,

在评估搭建二氧化碳网络的地区时，

我们看的是三个不一样的点。

we look for three different things.

Firstly, proximity to storage.

第一，离储存场的距离。

Secondly, a cluster of at least a few sources

第二，一个含有至少几个拥有高量 二氧化碳的废气的放射体的组集。

with high amounts of CO2 in their flue gas;

the more CO2 in the exhaust,

废气中的二氧化碳越多，

the cheaper it is to capture.

捕捉二氧化碳就越便宜。

And thirdly, an ability to scale up the network and lower the cost quickly

第三，通过少数放射体去放大 这个网络且降低价钱的能力。

with few emitters.

Edmonton and its surrounding areas provide a good example

埃德蒙顿及其周边地区提供了一个很好的例子

of this idea at work.

它们很好地展示了这个想法实施时的样子。

Suitable underground rock layers that can trap CO2 are abundant,

我们拥有丰富的适合捕获二氧化碳的地下岩层，

well exceeding what is needed,

远远超过我们的所需，

and it also meets the second and third criteria

同时也符合第二和第三条标准

in that it has a good combination

它很好地结合了

of both high- and low- concentration CO2 streams

高浓度和低浓度的二氧化碳流，

associated with different industrial processes.

这些二氧化碳产生于不同的工业流程。

And it can scale up to low cost quickly.

而且它还可以通过扩大规模迅速降低成本。

In one of the clusters,

在其中的一个群组中，

we find the number of emitters with very low capture and storage cost

我们发现排放者的碳捕获与储存成本极低，

in the range of 40 to 50 dollars per ton,

每吨价格在40到50美元之间，

but they only represent 1.2 megatons per year.

但是他们每年只排放120万吨。

The total cluster, however, can scale up to 12 megatons --

而整体的排放规模可以达到120兆吨，

up to 10 times its original size.

这是其初始规模的10倍。

But those first megatons of emissions played a crucial role

但这些最初的百万吨排放非常重要，

in scaling up the network

它们扩大了网络规模，

and reducing the cost and risk for others down the line.

并减少了其他人后续的成本和风险。

That's your network effect in action.

这就是你的网络在发挥作用。

And it's not just Edmonton.

而且这不仅仅局限于埃德蒙顿。

If we take Scunthorpe in Lincolnshire in the UK,

如果我们以英国林肯郡的斯肯索普作为例。

we see similar dynamics and potential.

我们看到类似的格局和潜力。

The North Sea offers sufficient storage,

北海提供了足够的存储，

and while storing CO2 offshore is more expensive than onshore,

虽然在海上储存二氧化碳比在陆上储存更昂贵，

there's the potential to reduce this cost

成本有可能降低，

by reusing and repurposing existing oil and gas infrastructure.

方式是重新使用和改变现有石油和天然气的基础设施。

If the steel mill standalone would have to capture and store its CO2,

如果个体钢铁厂必须捕捉和储存其排放的二氧化碳，

it would prove very costly.

经证明其成本会非常高昂。

But it can reduce this cost by sharing the infrastructure

但这一成本可以通过共享基础设施降低，

with refining and chemical emitters en route to the North Sea.

对象是通往北海沿线的炼油和化学物质排放工厂。

Many of them have cheaper capture cost

这些工厂大多数碳捕获成本更低，

with the ability to improve the overall economics

可以提升整体的经济状况

and kick-start a network that has the ability to scale up to 28 megatons.

并推动构建一个规模达到处理28兆吨二氧化碳的网络。

两个不同国家的两个不同的代表案例拥有处理14兆吨的潜力

Two examples in two different countries with 14 megatons of potential --

already double versus what we have today.

与我们今天的情况相比，已经翻了一番。

And this network effect applies anywhere

这种网络效应适用于任何地方，

and is actually not uncommon

而且实际上并不罕见，

when it comes to building out infrastructure.

当涉及到建设基础设施时，

In fact, CO2 networks could very much follow the principles of the past

事实上，二氧化碳网络可以很好地适配过去的

in terms of how our energy and utility infrastructure was developed around us,

就我们周围的能源和公共基础设施的发展而言，

whether it's water, gas, electricity, local supply chains --

无论是水、气、电，还是当地的供应链，

all these networks apply local economies of scale

所有这些网络都应用了当地的规模经济，

and were built up over time with favorable, marginal cost

随着时间的推移建立起来，通过相应支持的边际成本

of adding new connections.

增加新的连接。

The big difference here is we're reversing the flow.

这里最大的区别是，我们正在扭转这种碳流动。

And these networks have the potential to enable future innovation

这些网络有可能使未来创新性地

of using CO2 in chemical processes to make, for example, building materials

在化工生产中利用二氧化碳制造，例如，建筑材料，

instead of burying the CO2 underground.

而不是将二氧化碳埋在地下。

Our analysis is a pure economic one.

我们的分析是一个纯粹的经济分析。

It does not account for political and local geographical barriers,

它没有考虑到政治和当地的地理障碍，

but creating a favorable regulatory environment

但创造一个有利的监管环境，

and removing these barriers will be critical.

消除这些障碍将至关重要。

Take these two neighboring states in the US, for example:

以美国的两个相邻的州为例：

North Dakota,

北达科他州

with ample, cheap storage and existing CO2 pipelines,

现在有着充足的、碳储存成本低廉二氧化碳管道，

and the state has put in place tax incentives

该州已经制定了税收激励政策

and financial assistance to use it.

和财政援助来使用这些管道。

Go next door to Minnesota:

在隔壁的明尼苏达州，

no storage within several hundred miles,

其几百英里范围内没有碳储存，

but home to 18 large-scale ethanol production facilities,

但却有18个大规模的乙醇生产设施，

including the one in Granite Falls,

其中一个位于花岗岩瀑布，

all of which create a highly concentrated stream of CO2 emissions.

所有这些都会产生高度集中的二氧化碳排放。

Can the blue and the red state work together to add 40 megatons

共和党和民主党各州能否共同合作

to our carbon capture tally?

为我们的碳捕获量增加40兆吨？

We have no more than 20 years to bend the curve

我们降低排放

and combat climate change --

并应对气候变化的时间不足20年，

potentially less.

甚至有可能更少。

The gas networks in my two home countries of the Netherlands and the UK

我的两个祖国荷兰和英国的天然气网络

were built in similar time frames after the Second World War --

在第二次世界大战后以类似的时间长度内建成——

massive undertakings in infrastructure buildup

基础设施建设投入巨大，

and at a time of similar high national debt.

当时国家同样债台高筑。

It's time to build another network,

是时候建造另一个网络，

one for CO2.

一个用于处理二氧化碳的网络。

It does not need to last forever.

它不需要永远存在下去，

It can be there just for the transition away from fossil fuels.

只需要渡过脱离化石燃料的转型期。

But we need it now to preserve local manufacturing jobs

但我们现在需要它来保护当地的制造业工作

and our communities

和我们的社区，

and provide a hope for a better and more sustainable future.

并为更好和更可持续的未来提供希望。

It is critical that governments,

至关重要的是，不论是地方还是国家政府，

both local and national,

as well as companies,

包括公司，

assess the potential for carbon capture at a local level,

应当评估当地的碳捕捉潜力，

start to capture the cheapest sources of CO2

并开始捕获最便宜的二氧化碳来源，

and build up the network from there.

在此基础上建立起网络。

Only in that way can local communities

只有这样，当地社区才能

like the ones in Edmonton, Granite Falls, Scunthorpe and beyond

像埃德蒙顿、花岗岩瀑布、斯肯索普和其他地方的社区一样

thrive both economically and sustainably.

实现经济繁荣和可持续发展。

Thank you.

谢谢。