How to See the Future Coming — and Prepare for It | Jane McGonigal | TED

翻译人员: DQ Huang 校对人员: Lening Xu

As a futurist,

作为未来学家，

I think the two most dangerous words in the English language

我认为英语中最危险的两个词是

are “unimaginable” and “unthinkable.”

“不可想象”和“不可思议”。

So I want to invite you to think creatively and courageously

因此，我想邀请你们 创造性地、勇敢地思考

about some hard-to-imagine possibilities.

一些难以想象的可能性。

Let’s play a game of “What if?”

我们来玩一个 “如果……怎么办？” 的游戏。

I'll describe three hypothetical future scenarios.

我将描述三种假设的未来情景。

You try to imagine how you would feel

你试着想象一下，

你会有什么感受，会做什么，

and what you would do

if you woke up in these strange new worlds.

如果在这些陌生的新世界中醒来。

Future number one.

第一个未来场景。

It's 2033.

在 2033 年。

Extreme heat, wildfire and droughts have been worse

极端高温、野火和干旱，

than even the most dire climate predictions.

甚至比最灾难性的气候预测还要严重。

So now geoengineering is up for a global vote.

因此，现在地球工程需要全球投票。

9 billion people are eligible to vote yes or no

90 亿人有资格对一项

on a 10-year plan of aggressive solar radiation management,

为期十年的积极太阳辐射管理计划 投赞成票或反对票，

injecting sulfate particles into the atmosphere

该计划将硫酸盐颗粒注入

to block some of the Sun’s rays.

大气层以阻挡部分太阳光线。

The election is called Sun Exit.

这次投票叫做“太阳出口”。

They’re saying a yes on Sun Exit could bring about a 10-year winter,

他们说“太阳出口”的实施 可能会带来长达十年的冬天，

but it could also solve some of our biggest climate challenges.

但它也可以解决我们一些最大的气候挑战。

Is it worth the risks, the unintended consequences?

值得冒这些风险和 承担意想不到的后果吗？

How would you vote?

你会如何投票？

How would you educate yourself to be ready to vote?

你会如何教育自己做好投票准备？

Scenario update, Sun Exit passed,

情景更新，“太阳出口”已通过，

we're doing it,

我们正在实施，

solar radiation management starts in 10 days.

太阳辐射管理将在 10 天后开始。

Now how do you feel?

现在你感觉怎么样？

What do you do in the next 10 days to get ready?

在接下来的 10 天里， 你会做些什么准备？

OK, it's one year later.

好的，一年之后。

The geoengineering is working, yes!

地球工程在正常运作，太好了！

But paradoxically, trust in science is now at an all-time low.

但矛盾的是，人们对科学的信任 现在处于历史最低水平。

People are saying there are mental and physical side effects.

人们说这项工程有精神和身体上的副作用。

Is it just misinformation?

这只是错误信息吗？

What do you do to stay healthy?

你要怎么做才能维持健康呢？

New future.

新的未来。

OK, it's 2029 now

好的，现在是 2029 年，

and your federal government has gone full-blown zero-waste authoritarian style.

你们的联邦政府已经完全变成了 零浪费的威权主义风格。

It is now illegal to throw anything away.

现在，扔掉任何东西都是非法的。

They literally took everyone's garbage cans.

他们甚至没收了每个人的垃圾桶。

Now composting's still allowed, recycling never worked.

现在仍然允许堆肥， 回收再利用从未奏效。

And garbage, you can't make any of it.

还有垃圾，你没法利用它们做任何事。

Nothing.

没招。

But there's some good news.

但是有一些好消息。

Psychologists have invented a new word to capture the positive emotion

心理学家创造了一个新词

that defines life in a zero-waste age.

来捕捉定义零浪费时代生活的积极情绪。

Zerophoria.

狂热零主义。

It's a combination of joy, pride and resourcefulness.

这是欢乐、自豪和足智多谋的结合。

A lightness of being that comes from wasting nothing

生命的轻盈来自于不浪费任何东西，

and leaving no trace behind.

不留下任何痕迹。

How do you react to these changes?

你如何应对这些变化？

Do you learn new habits, help others adapt?

你会形成新习惯，帮助他人适应吗？

Or do you rise up and join the pro-trash resistance?

还是你挺身而出加入支持垃圾的示威游行？

Or become a reformer,

或是成为一名革命家，

propose ways to make zero-waste society better?

提出改善零浪费社会的方法？

OK, let's imagine one final future.

好的，让我们想象一下最后的未来情景。

It's 2031.

在 2031 年。

Climate migration is on the rise.

气候移民呈上升趋势。

Countries with low fertility rates

低生育率的国家正在为移民而相互竞争。

are competing with each other for immigrants.

Governments are building climate-resilient welcome cities

政府正在建设具有 气候适应能力的受欢迎城市，

and paying people to move there.

并付费让人们移民去那里。

It's part of a new geopolitical movement called the Welcome Party.

这是名为“欢迎派对”的 新地缘政治运动的一部分。

Up to one billion people are expected to climate-relocate

在未来十年中，预计将有多达 10 亿人，

with assistance over the next decade.

通过援助进行气候移民。

You have been asked to take a personal survey

有人让你对气候风险和 移民意图进行个人调查。

of climate risk and intention to migrate.

The Welcome Party is collecting data

“欢迎晚会”正在收集数据，

to simulate and plan a safe and equitable mass climate migration.

来模拟和计划安全和公平的大规模气候移民。

You have to name three climate-resilient cities

在社会和经济支持下，

you would be willing to move to,

你必须说出愿意迁往的三个具有

given social and economic support.

气候适应能力的城市。

Which three cities do you name?

你说出哪三个城市的名字？

How prepared do you feel to consider this question?

你准备好考虑这个问题了吗？

Why am I posing these hypotheticals?

我为什么要提出这些假设？

Well, take a look at this data.

好吧，看看这些数据。

These two charts show

这两张图表展示了我们

how often we use the words “unimaginable” and “unthinkable”

在新闻中使用“不可想象”和“不可思议” 这两个词的频率。

in our journalism.

Look how common they've become.

看看它们变得多么普遍。

We are so often shocked and blindsided by how the future unfolds.

我们常常对未来的发展感到震惊和盲目。

But it doesn't have to be that way.

但事情不必如此。

At the nonprofit Institute for the Future

在加利福尼亚州帕洛阿尔托的 非营利组织“未来研究所”，

in Palo Alto, California,

I help people build imagination leadership skills

我通过模拟难以想象的未来 来帮助人们培养想象领导技能，

by simulating hard-to-imagine futures like you've thought about today.

Our goal is to improve everyone's scores

我们的目标是提高每个人

on three measures of future imagination,

在未来想象力三个指标上的得分，

like mental flexibility.

例如思维弹性。

On a scale of one to 10,

以一到十的等级来衡量，

how plausible or realistic is this future scenario?

这种未来情景有多合理或现实？

In other words, is it thinkable to you?

换句话说，你能设想到这样的未来吗？

Also, realistic hope.

还有现实的希望。

On a scale of one to 10,

以一到十的等级来衡量，

how worried or excited would you be to wake up in this future?

你将来醒来会有多担心或兴奋？

We want you to anticipate new risks,

我们希望您预测新的风险，

but also opportunities for positive transformation.

但也要预见积极转型的机会。

And finally, future power.

最后是未来的力量。

On a scale of one to 10,

从一到十的等级来看，

how ready do you feel to help yourself and others

如果这个未来真的发生，

if this future were really to happen?

你准备好帮助自己和他人了吗？

This is the number we see go up the most

这是在人们想象自己 在假设世界中采取行动之后，

after people imagine themselves taking action in a hypothetical world.

我们看到的上升幅度最大的数字。

So the next time you have an instinct

因此，下次你本能地将可能性描述为

to describe a possibility as “unthinkable” or “unimaginable,”

“不可思议”或“不可想象”时，

wait.

请等等。

Play with that possibility instead.

改为试试这种可能性。

Help us become a community,

帮助我们成为这样一个群体， 这样一个社会，

a society that can confidently say

we can face and we can solve

我们能够共同面对，能够共同解决

previously unimaginable challenges together.

以前无法想象的挑战。

For us, there are no unthinkable futures.

对我们来说，没有不可思议的未来。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）