How to See the Future Coming — and Prepare for It | Jane McGonigal | TED

9,473 views ・ 2025-04-03

TED


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00:04
As a futurist,
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I think the two most dangerous words in the English language
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are “unimaginable” and “unthinkable.”
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So I want to invite you to think creatively and courageously
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about some hard-to-imagine possibilities.
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Let’s play a game of “What if?”
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I'll describe three hypothetical future scenarios.
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You try to imagine how you would feel
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and what you would do
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if you woke up in these strange new worlds.
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Future number one.
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It's 2033.
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Extreme heat, wildfire and droughts have been worse
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than even the most dire climate predictions.
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So now geoengineering is up for a global vote.
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9 billion people are eligible to vote yes or no
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on a 10-year plan of aggressive solar radiation management,
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injecting sulfate particles into the atmosphere
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to block some of the Sun’s rays.
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The election is called Sun Exit.
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They’re saying a yes on Sun Exit could bring about a 10-year winter,
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but it could also solve some of our biggest climate challenges.
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Is it worth the risks, the unintended consequences?
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How would you vote?
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How would you educate yourself to be ready to vote?
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Scenario update, Sun Exit passed,
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we're doing it,
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solar radiation management starts in 10 days.
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Now how do you feel?
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What do you do in the next 10 days to get ready?
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OK, it's one year later.
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The geoengineering is working, yes!
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But paradoxically, trust in science is now at an all-time low.
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People are saying there are mental and physical side effects.
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Is it just misinformation?
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What do you do to stay healthy?
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New future.
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OK, it's 2029 now
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and your federal government has gone full-blown zero-waste authoritarian style.
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It is now illegal to throw anything away.
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They literally took everyone's garbage cans.
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Now composting's still allowed, recycling never worked.
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And garbage, you can't make any of it.
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Nothing.
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But there's some good news.
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Psychologists have invented a new word to capture the positive emotion
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that defines life in a zero-waste age.
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Zerophoria.
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It's a combination of joy, pride and resourcefulness.
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A lightness of being that comes from wasting nothing
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and leaving no trace behind.
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How do you react to these changes?
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Do you learn new habits, help others adapt?
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Or do you rise up and join the pro-trash resistance?
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Or become a reformer,
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propose ways to make zero-waste society better?
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OK, let's imagine one final future.
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It's 2031.
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Climate migration is on the rise.
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Countries with low fertility rates
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are competing with each other for immigrants.
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Governments are building climate-resilient welcome cities
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and paying people to move there.
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It's part of a new geopolitical movement called the Welcome Party.
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Up to one billion people are expected to climate-relocate
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with assistance over the next decade.
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You have been asked to take a personal survey
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of climate risk and intention to migrate.
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The Welcome Party is collecting data
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to simulate and plan a safe and equitable mass climate migration.
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You have to name three climate-resilient cities
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you would be willing to move to,
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given social and economic support.
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Which three cities do you name?
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How prepared do you feel to consider this question?
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Why am I posing these hypotheticals?
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Well, take a look at this data.
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These two charts show
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how often we use the words “unimaginable” and “unthinkable”
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in our journalism.
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Look how common they've become.
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We are so often shocked and blindsided by how the future unfolds.
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But it doesn't have to be that way.
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At the nonprofit Institute for the Future
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in Palo Alto, California,
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I help people build imagination leadership skills
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by simulating hard-to-imagine futures like you've thought about today.
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Our goal is to improve everyone's scores
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on three measures of future imagination,
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like mental flexibility.
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On a scale of one to 10,
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how plausible or realistic is this future scenario?
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In other words, is it thinkable to you?
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Also, realistic hope.
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On a scale of one to 10,
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how worried or excited would you be to wake up in this future?
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We want you to anticipate new risks,
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but also opportunities for positive transformation.
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And finally, future power.
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On a scale of one to 10,
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how ready do you feel to help yourself and others
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if this future were really to happen?
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05:00
This is the number we see go up the most
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after people imagine themselves taking action in a hypothetical world.
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So the next time you have an instinct
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to describe a possibility as “unthinkable” or “unimaginable,”
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wait.
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Play with that possibility instead.
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Help us become a community,
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a society that can confidently say
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we can face and we can solve
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previously unimaginable challenges together.
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For us, there are no unthinkable futures.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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