What Capitalism Gets Right – and Governments Get Wrong | Katherine Mangu-Ward | TED

翻译人员: Yip Yan Yeung 校对人员: Yan Li Xiao

Hi, I'm Katherine,

大家好，我是凯瑟琳 （Katherine），

and I like capitalism,

我喜欢资本主义，

a lot.

非常喜欢。

But in my 20 years as a libertarian journalist,

但是在我 20 年的 自由意志主义记者的职业生涯中，

I have started to pick up

我逐渐发现

that some people aren't as fond of capitalism as I am.

有些人没有我这么喜欢资本主义。

That's fine, but here's the thing.

没关系，但是有一点。

I think a lot of the stuff that you think you hate about capitalism

我认为，有些你讨厌资本主义的方面

is actually stuff to hate about government.

其实是讨厌政府的方面。

Before we get started kvetching, though,

但是在我开始发牢骚之前，

I want to sing you a little song, and you've probably heard it before,

我想唱一首歌，你可能以前也听过，

so feel free to sing along, if you like.

如果你愿意的话可以一起唱。

Don’t worry, I’m not actually going to sing. It’s fine.

别担心，我没有真要唱，没事。

200 years ago, in 1820, the global rate of absolute poverty --

200 年以前，1820 年， 全球绝对贫困率——

which is defined, imperfectly,

不完全准确的定义为

as living on less than one dollar and 90 cents a day --

每日生活支出低于 1.90 美元，

was 84 percent.

数值为 84%。

That's enormous.

这可是个不小的数目。

Today, the World Bank puts that number at nine percent.

如今，世界银行公布 低于贫困线人口数据为 9%。

Over the same period,

在这 200 年的时间里，

life expectancy went from less than 30 years to 72,

人口预期寿命 从低于 30 岁升至 72 岁，

and there were similarly remarkable gains

同样的改善情况也出现在

in access to food, water, housing, education

同时期的食物、水资源、 住房、教育资源供应上。

during that period.

That period coincides so neatly with the rise of global capitalism

这个时期恰逢 全球资本主义的崛起时期，

that I flatly refuse to believe it's a coincidence.

吻合得让我不敢相信这只是个巧合。

I think sometimes, we get so caught up

我觉得有时候，我们忙于讨论

in talking about what capitalism could or should be

资本主义到底会变成什么样， 或者应该变成什么样，

that we forget what it has been and what it is.

以致于我们忘记了 资本主义的历史和本质。

So I wanted to just take a minute to do some,

我想花一两分钟谈谈

like, greatest hits of capitalism.

资本主义的一些重大突破。

They include electric light, personal mobile phones,

包括电灯、个人手机、

cheap fertilizer, commercial aviation.

低价肥料、民用航空。

And current capitalists are working on cool stuff

当今的资本主义者 在研究一些酷炫的东西，

like cryptocurrencies and geoengineering

比如加密货币、地球工程、

and plant-based meat.

植物肉。

I also recently learned that there is a zero-sugar, alcoholic version

我最近听说塔可贝尔（Taco Bell）的 激浪 Baja Blast 系列饮料

of Taco Bell's Baja Blast Mountain Dew.

竟然还有无糖有酒精版本。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And I don't actually know

其实我也不知道

if that's a point for or against my argument,

这该不该是我观点的论据，

but I did feel like you should know.

但是我觉得你该知道这个消息。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So, amongst all of this miraculous market activity,

在这些市场活动的奇迹中，

we also have government,

我们还有政府，

and that means we have two problems.

这意味着我们有两个问题。

The first problem is that governments don't love it

第一个问题，政府不喜欢

when weird new stuff gets born.

这种奇怪新事物的到来。

Second problem is that governments also don't love it

第二个问题，政府也不喜欢

when familiar old stuff dies.

熟悉旧事物的消逝。

So let's talk about the new stuff first.

我们先来说说新事物吧。

The thing about capitalism is that it is an emergent system.

资本主义重要的一点就是 它是一个逐渐成长的系统。

It's, like all evolutionary mechanisms, powered by mutations.

这些逐渐发展的机制 都建立在新变化上。

And in this case, what the mutations are

新变化就是

are very weird people trying new stuff.

奇奇怪怪的人尝试新事物。

And when we need really big progress, big new stuff,

如果我们想要显著进步、 伟大创新的话，

that means we need really, really weird people.

就意味着我们需要相当奇怪的人。

Elon, looking at you, buddy. I don't know where you are today.

埃隆（Elon Musk），说的就是你。 虽然我也不知道你在哪儿。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Prior to the rise of modern capitalism, it absolutely sucked to be weird.

在现代资本主义崛起之前， 奇怪的行为会让你处境比较艰难。

Best-case scenario -- a new idea ended up kind of dying on the vine

最好的情况是一个新点子 由于缺乏推进的机会或者资源

for lack of opportunities or resources to go forward.

不了了之。

Worst-case scenario, trying something heroic and new

最差的情况是 尝试一些伟大创新

could put you at odds with the powers that be

会让你和当朝的极权权贵

in times and places when those powers were absolute.

发生龃龉。

So imagine you have a great plan to open up a new trade route

假设在英荷战争时期，

between Europe and Asia during the Anglo-Dutch Wars.

你试图在欧亚之间 开通一条新的贸易航线。

That is a brilliant way to get a face full of cannonballs.

那你就可以充分体验挨枪子的滋味。

I'm not saying that every weirdo has a brilliant apocalypse-averting idea

我的意思不是 每个怪人开天辟地的新点子

that also happens to be a viable commercial enterprise.

都正好是个可行的商业企划。

Most new ideas are bad.

大多数的新点子都不是好点子。

There’s a reason people haven’t done it before.

前无古人不是没有道理的。

Just like most mutations are evolutionary dead ends.

就像大多数的转变 都是逐渐走向灭亡的过程。

But that's OK, because high-functioning capitalism

但是没关系，高功能的资本主义

is characterized by a tremendous amount of corporate failure.

本来就有大量的企业失败。

Governments don't actually like it when familiar old corporations fail.

但是政府可不喜欢传统企业垮台。

They prefer to do business

政府喜欢

with the taxable, already regulated devils that they know.

和已经驯服的纳税恶魔做交易。

But that's too bad,

这也太不好了，

because my personal favorite thing about companies

因为我最喜欢企业的一点就是

is that they can die.

它们会倒闭。

When companies die, of course,

当然企业倒闭了

that imposes a hardship on customers, on employees, on communities,

会让顾客、员工、社会、

你的 401(k) 计划 （养老保险）不太好过。

on your 401(k).

My family wasn't allowed to set foot in a Walmart for a generation,

沃尔玛让我祖父的店倒闭了，

after Walmart put my granddaddy's general store out of business,

所以我家一整代人 都不允许踏足沃尔玛，

so I get it.

所以我懂的。

At the same time, failure is the fate of nearly every company,

与此同时，几乎每个公司 都命中注定会失败，

and that is why capitalism works.

也就是为什么 资本主义可以运转起来。

Imagine, if you will, when a company fails,

想像一下，一家公司倒闭了，

it releases into the market labor and resources,

把劳动力和资源释放进市场，

talent that can be better used elsewhere.

人才可以在别处得到更好的利用。

Imagine a tree falling in the forest and rotting and fueling new growth.

类似于一棵树在森林里倒下了， 腐烂但滋养了新生。

Good news, though, for fans of corporate death like myself:

但是有个好消息要带给 我这样的企业倒闭爱好者们：

the original Fortune 500 list, in 1955 --

位列 1955 年的首次 《财富》世界 500 强公司

of the companies on that list, only 52 are still on the list.

如今只有 52 家还在排行榜上。

That means 90 percent of those companies either went under, or merged,

意味着有 90% 的公司要么倒闭了， 要么被合并了，

or fell off the list altogether.

要么彻底跌出榜单了。

And corporate death does seem to be accelerating.

企业倒闭的进程确实在加速。

The life span of a company on the S and P 500

标准普尔 500 指数（S&P 500） 显示在 50 年代后期，

was 61 years in the late '50s;

一家公司的寿命为 61 年，

today, it's less than 18.

而现在寿命低于 18 年。

To better understand this corporate birth-and-death dynamic,

为了更好地理解企业的生死规律，

I’m going to tell you two wildly oversimplified stories.

我要给大家讲两个大量删减版故事。

The first is about General Motors, and the second is about Facebook.

第一个是通用汽车公司， 第二个是 Facebook。

Now, I didn't pick these companies because I think they are particularly evil

我选这两个公司不是因为 我觉得它们太坏了，

or even terribly unusual.

或者太不一般了。

They're doing stuff that makes sense

它们只是在一个有点崩坏的系统里

in a system that's a little bit broken.

做一些正常的事。

So let's start by talking about General Motors.

我们先来看通用汽车。

General Motors is actually one of the tiny number of companies

通用汽车其实是 1955 年的 500 强公司里

from that original Fortune 500 list in 1955

屈指可数现在依旧名列前茅的

that's still hanging out near the top.

公司之一。

And starting a car company is moderately nuts.

开家车企是件大胆的事。

Really, at any time.

真的，一直是这样。

It's a pretty impressive thing

太厉害了，

that they took what was once a ridiculous luxury

他们就这样把曾经的奢侈品

and turned it into an everyday necessity.

变成了日常必需品。

But then, government got used to GM,

然后，政府就适应了通用汽车，

GM got used to governments.

通用汽车也适应了政府。

And by 1981, government is using the power of eminent domain

到了 1981 年， 政府利用土地征用权

to wipe out an entire working-class neighborhood in Detroit

征用了底特律整个工薪阶层社区，

just because GM wants to build a factory there.

只是因为通用汽车 想在那里建一座工厂。

That coddling continues through the 2008 financial crisis,

这种纵容特权行为 持续到了 2008 年金融危机，

when GM received really quite a massive bailout from the government.

政府给了通用汽车一大笔纾困金。

That's not market failure, that's government failure.

这不是市场的失败， 而是政府的失败。

Market would have stripped GM for parts a long time ago.

市场早就要肢解通用汽车了。

Now let's talk about Facebook.

我们来看看 Facebook。

Same deal, right?

同样的情况，对吧？

Sort of, wacky people trying something new just to see if it'll work.

怪人尝试新事物， 只是想看看搞不搞得成。

And at first, Facebook was fun, remember?

还记得 Facebook 刚开始的时候 是很好玩的吗？

We got hot dates and we found lost dogs,

我们可以约会、找到走丢的狗狗、

and college reunions became totally obsolete, which was awesome.

再也没有大学同学会了，太棒了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

A few people made a lot of money,

有些人赚了很多钱，

and the rest of us were a little bit better off.

然后其他人的条件都好了点。

But, flash forward 14 or 15 years,

但是，往后推 14、15 年，

and Facebook is being called repeatedly to the congressional carpet

Facebook 成为了 议会质询的常客，

to answer for, actually, all the sins of big tech.

为大型科技公司的一切罪行辩解。

Mark Zuckerberg, though, takes a conciliatory stance.

但是马克·扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg） 采取了缓和立场。

He asks only to be allowed to help write the regulations that will govern his firm,

他只要求被允许参与制订 管理他自己公司的条例，

and, coincidentally, those of his competitors.

但是正好它的竞争对手公司 也在条例管理范围之内。

Here's where it gets a little complicated, though,

这就是复杂的地方，

because even as some legislators are working with Facebook lobbyists

因为就算有些立法者 和 Facebook 的说客一起

to write rules for the industry,

制订了行业的规定，

others have introduced a bill to break up Facebook

有其他的立法者 制订了一个拆解 Facebook 的法案，

and punish it for its sheer size.

制裁 Facebook 的大体量。

Meanwhile, an informal poll of the Gen Zers in my life

与此同时，我调查了一些身边的 Z 世代（95 - 05 年生人），

informs me that Facebook is "cringe."

他们说 Facebook 让他们 “尴尬癌犯了”。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

TikTok is eating Facebook’s lunch,

TikTok（抖音海外）占据了 Facebook 的地盘，

and the first-quarter earnings report of Meta came with a surprise.

Meta（原 Facebook）的 第一季度财报让人大吃一惊。

The market cap of the firm

Meta 的市值已经

had actually dropped below the level written into that bill

跌至低于法案

制裁 Facebook 过大的 市值水平。

to punish firms for being too big.

So the joke's on Congress.

这时候要看议会的笑话了。

Facebook is going to end up avoiding regulation by shrinking,

Facebook 为了不被制裁 而缩小体量，

but unfortunately, it's going to take its competitors with it.

但是不幸的是， 它要拉着竞争对手陪葬。

This is a classic example of politicians being lagging, not leading, indicators.

这是一个政客引起拖累 而不是引导作用的典型例子。

We are rich thanks to two centuries of global capitalism,

这 200 年的全球资本主义 让我们变得富有，

but we do still have problems.

但是依旧问题重重。

As a great sage once observed,

有一个智者发现

“mo money” may in fact correlate with “mo problems.”

钱越多，问题越多。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

The way forward is to figure out what the public and private sector

未来的方向是要搞清楚 公共部门和私营机构

can each do best

分别擅长做什么，

and help them figure out how to stay in their lane.

并且如何帮助它们各行其是。

When it comes to government,

谈到政府，

I am open to the possibility

我认为很有可能

that the answer to what it can do best is ...

它到底擅长做什么的答案就是——

nothing.

无。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But we don't all have to become anarchists today.

但是我们不用每个人都是 无政府主义者。

It's clear that liberal institutions, rule of law,

自由主义制度、法治、

functioning courts, private-property rights

正常运作的法庭、私有财产权

have been very powerful in this project of fostering innovation.

很明显都是促进创新的有力工具。

You already know what markets do best.

你们都知道市场擅长做些什么。

They let people try stuff,

它让人们尝试新事物，

they send strong signals when that stuff isn't working,

如果新事物不对劲， 会发出明显的信号，

and they have fueled an incredible arc of growth

还助力了蓬勃增长

and poverty eradication.

和消除贫困。

If we are to have optimism for a radically better world

如果我们还对在这条资本主义

to continue this path that capitalism has put us on,

引领的道路上走向美好未来 抱有希望的话，

we cannot let governments collaborate with business

我们就不该让政府与企业合作

to wreck the engine of the market.

抹除市场的作用。

Weirdos trying stuff and sometimes being allowed to fail at it

怪人尝试新事物， 失败也没有关系，

are our best hope as a species.

这就是我们作为人类最大的希望。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Cheers and applause)

（欢呼声、掌声）