What Capitalism Gets Right – and Governments Get Wrong | Katherine Mangu-Ward | TED

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

Hi, I'm Katherine,

嗨，我是凱瑟琳，

and I like capitalism,

我喜歡資本主義，

a lot.

很喜歡。

But in my 20 years as a libertarian journalist,

但在我擔任自由派記者的二十年間，

I have started to pick up

我開始了解到，

that some people aren't as fond of capitalism as I am.

有些人並不像我這麼喜歡資本主義。

That's fine, but here's the thing.

那沒關係，但，重點來了。

I think a lot of the stuff that you think you hate about capitalism

我認為，你心目中 資本主義那些讓人厭惡的點，

is actually stuff to hate about government.

其實是政府讓人厭惡的點。

Before we get started kvetching, though,

不過，在我們開始發牢騷之前， 我想唱首歌給大家聽，

I want to sing you a little song, and you've probably heard it before,

你們以前可能聽過，

so feel free to sing along, if you like.

所以，若你想要的話，歡迎一起唱。

Don’t worry, I’m not actually going to sing. It’s fine.

別擔心，我不會真的唱，沒關係。

200 years ago, in 1820, the global rate of absolute poverty --

兩百年前，1820 年，

全球的絕對貧窮率——

which is defined, imperfectly,

它不甚完美的定義是每天只能 靠不到一塊九美金生活——

as living on less than one dollar and 90 cents a day --

was 84 percent.

是 84%。

That's enormous.

這數字很大。

Today, the World Bank puts that number at nine percent.

現今，世界銀行公佈的數字是 9%。

Over the same period,

同樣這段期間，

life expectancy went from less than 30 years to 72,

壽命從不到三十歲提升到七十二歲，

and there were similarly remarkable gains

同樣驚人的增長現象也出現在

in access to food, water, housing, education

取得食物、用水、 住房、教育等方面，

during that period.

都發生在那段時期。

That period coincides so neatly with the rise of global capitalism

那段時期剛好對應到全球 資本主義的興起，對應之完美，

that I flatly refuse to believe it's a coincidence.

讓我斷然拒絕相信那是巧合。

I think sometimes, we get so caught up

我認為，有時我們 太陷在談論資本主義

in talking about what capitalism could or should be

能夠或應該是怎樣的，

that we forget what it has been and what it is.

讓我們忘了它曾經及現在是怎樣的。

So I wanted to just take a minute to do some,

所以我想花一分鐘在這裡，

like, greatest hits of capitalism.

做個像是資本主義的精選輯。

They include electric light, personal mobile phones,

內容包括電力發光、

個人行動電話、

cheap fertilizer, commercial aviation.

便宜的肥料、

商業航空。

And current capitalists are working on cool stuff

而當前的資本主義者則投入在 一些很酷的東西上，比如

like cryptocurrencies and geoengineering

加密貨幣、地球工程，

and plant-based meat.

以及植物肉。

I also recently learned that there is a zero-sugar, alcoholic version

我最近也得知，

有一種無糖酒精版的

of Taco Bell's Baja Blast Mountain Dew.

Taco Bell 的 Baja Blast 激浪飲料。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And I don't actually know

我其實不知道這件事 對我的論點有利還是有害，

if that's a point for or against my argument,

但我覺得應該要讓大家知道這件事。

but I did feel like you should know.

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So, amongst all of this miraculous market activity,

所以，在所有這些 很神奇的市場活動中，

we also have government,

我們也有政府，

and that means we have two problems.

那就意味著我們有兩個問題。

The first problem is that governments don't love it

第一個問題，

政府並不喜歡有怪異的新東西誕生。

when weird new stuff gets born.

Second problem is that governments also don't love it

第二個問題，政府也不喜歡

when familiar old stuff dies.

熟悉的老東西消逝。

So let's talk about the new stuff first.

咱們先來談談新東西。

The thing about capitalism is that it is an emergent system.

資本主義的一大特性是：

它是一個新興的體制。

It's, like all evolutionary mechanisms, powered by mutations.

它和所有的進化機制一樣，

背後的推手是突變。

And in this case, what the mutations are

在這個例子中的突變則是

are very weird people trying new stuff.

非常奇怪的人在嘗試新東西。

And when we need really big progress, big new stuff,

若我們需要非常大的進展， 非常大的新東西，

that means we need really, really weird people.

那就表示我們需要 非常非常奇怪的人。

Elon, looking at you, buddy. I don't know where you are today.

伊隆，老兄，我在說你。 我不知道你今天在哪裡。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Prior to the rise of modern capitalism, it absolutely sucked to be weird.

在現代資本主義興起之前， 身為怪咖是件很鳥的事。

Best-case scenario -- a new idea ended up kind of dying on the vine

最好的情況—— 新點子最後胎死腹中，

for lack of opportunities or resources to go forward.

因為缺乏機會或資源 而無法進行下去。

Worst-case scenario, trying something heroic and new

最糟的情況——大膽嘗試新事物，

could put you at odds with the powers that be

在當權者擁有絕對權力的時間地點，

in times and places when those powers were absolute.

可能會讓你與當權者處於對立。

So imagine you have a great plan to open up a new trade route

想像一下，你有個 新貿易路線偉大計畫，

between Europe and Asia during the Anglo-Dutch Wars.

能在英荷戰爭時促成 歐洲和亞洲間的貿易。

That is a brilliant way to get a face full of cannonballs.

如果你想成為箭靶， 這是個很棒的方式。

I'm not saying that every weirdo has a brilliant apocalypse-averting idea

我的意思並不是每個怪咖都有

能避免世界末日的天才點子

that also happens to be a viable commercial enterprise.

剛好也是個可行的商業事業。

Most new ideas are bad.

大部分的新點子都很爛。

There’s a reason people haven’t done it before.

以前沒人做是有理由的。

Just like most mutations are evolutionary dead ends.

正如同大部分的突變 都是進化的死胡同。

But that's OK, because high-functioning capitalism

但，那沒關係，

因為高功能資本主義

is characterized by a tremendous amount of corporate failure.

特色就是有非常大量的企業失敗。

Governments don't actually like it when familiar old corporations fail.

政府其實並不喜歡 熟悉的老企業失敗。

They prefer to do business

他們偏好的生意對象是

with the taxable, already regulated devils that they know.

應該要納稅、已經被規範， 且他們已經知道的惡魔。

But that's too bad,

但，那就太不幸了， 因為公司最讓我喜歡的特性，

because my personal favorite thing about companies

is that they can die.

就是它們可能會死亡。

When companies die, of course,

當然，當公司死亡時， 會造成困擾，影響到

that imposes a hardship on customers, on employees, on communities,

客戶、員工、

社區、你的退休金儲蓄計畫。

on your 401(k).

My family wasn't allowed to set foot in a Walmart for a generation,

我的家族有足足一個世代 都不許踏入沃爾瑪，

after Walmart put my granddaddy's general store out of business,

因為沃爾瑪讓我祖父的雜貨店倒閉，

so I get it.

所以，我懂。

At the same time, failure is the fate of nearly every company,

同時，

失敗幾乎是每一間公司的命運，

and that is why capitalism works.

那就是為什麼資本主義行得通。

Imagine, if you will, when a company fails,

可以想像一下，當一間公司失敗時，

it releases into the market labor and resources,

它會釋出到市場上的包括

勞動力、資源、

talent that can be better used elsewhere.

人才，這些都可以用在 別的地方，用得更好。

Imagine a tree falling in the forest and rotting and fueling new growth.

想像森林中有一棵樹倒下，

它腐爛之後成了肥料， 促成新生命的成長。

Good news, though, for fans of corporate death like myself:

不過，對我這種企業死亡的 粉絲而言有個好消息：

the original Fortune 500 list, in 1955 --

1955 年的原始《財星》 五百強名單——

of the companies on that list, only 52 are still on the list.

當時名單上的公司中，只有 五十二家現在仍然在名單上。

That means 90 percent of those companies either went under, or merged,

那就表示，那些公司有九成

若不是破產、被合併，

or fell off the list altogether.

就是掉到排行榜外。

And corporate death does seem to be accelerating.

而企業的死亡似乎一直在加速。

The life span of a company on the S and P 500

以標普五百的公司為例，它們的壽命

was 61 years in the late '50s;

在五○年代末是六十一年；

today, it's less than 18.

現今則不到十八年。

To better understand this corporate birth-and-death dynamic,

為了幫各位更了解企業 誕生及死亡的這種動態，

I’m going to tell you two wildly oversimplified stories.

我要跟各位說兩個 被過度簡單化的故事。

The first is about General Motors, and the second is about Facebook.

第一個是通用汽車的故事，

第二個是臉書的故事。

我選上這兩家公司的原因 並不是因為我認為它們

Now, I didn't pick these companies because I think they are particularly evil

特別邪惡或甚至極不尋常。

or even terribly unusual.

They're doing stuff that makes sense

在有點問題的體制下，

in a system that's a little bit broken.

它們在做的事是合理的。

So let's start by talking about General Motors.

所以，咱們先來談通用汽車。

General Motors is actually one of the tiny number of companies

只有通用汽車和非常少數幾家公司

from that original Fortune 500 list in 1955

在 1955 年時名列《財星》 五百大，而至今仍然

that's still hanging out near the top.

名列前茅。

And starting a car company is moderately nuts.

不論什麼時期，想成立 汽車公司都可說是瘋了。

Really, at any time.

很不簡單的是，他們把過去

It's a pretty impressive thing

that they took what was once a ridiculous luxury

很荒謬的奢侈品 轉變成了日常必需品。

and turned it into an everyday necessity.

But then, government got used to GM,

但，接著，政府習慣了通用汽車，

GM got used to governments.

通用汽車也習慣了政府。

And by 1981, government is using the power of eminent domain

到了 1981 年，

政府動用了國家徵用權，清空

to wipe out an entire working-class neighborhood in Detroit

底特律的一整個工人階級鄰里，

just because GM wants to build a factory there.

只因為通用汽車想要 在那裡建立一個工廠。

That coddling continues through the 2008 financial crisis,

那種嬌慣現象持續到了 2008 年的金融危機，

when GM received really quite a massive bailout from the government.

那時，通用汽車從政府那裡 得到非常大量的紓困援助。

That's not market failure, that's government failure.

那不是市場失靈，是政府失靈。

Market would have stripped GM for parts a long time ago.

市場老早就會把通用汽車分屍了。

Now let's talk about Facebook.

現在來談談臉書。

Same deal, right?

同樣的情況，對吧？

Sort of, wacky people trying something new just to see if it'll work.

古怪的人嘗試新東西， 看行不行得通。

And at first, Facebook was fun, remember?

一開始，臉書很有趣，記得嗎？

We got hot dates and we found lost dogs,

我們找到火辣的約會對象， 我們找到走失的狗，

and college reunions became totally obsolete, which was awesome.

而大學同學會完全 被淘汰，這點超讚。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

A few people made a lot of money,

少數幾個人賺了大錢，我們 其他人的境況也好了一點點。

and the rest of us were a little bit better off.

But, flash forward 14 or 15 years,

但，快轉十四或十五年，

and Facebook is being called repeatedly to the congressional carpet

臉書不斷被傳喚到國會聽證會，

to answer for, actually, all the sins of big tech.

為大型科技公司的所有罪過受責。

Mark Zuckerberg, though, takes a conciliatory stance.

不過，馬克‧祖克伯 採取了和解的立場。

He asks only to be allowed to help write the regulations that will govern his firm,

他只要求要讓他參與協助撰寫

將來用來管理他公司的規範，

and, coincidentally, those of his competitors.

巧的是，這些規範也會 用來管理他的競爭對手。

Here's where it gets a little complicated, though,

這方面的狀況就比較 複雜了，因為，雖然

because even as some legislators are working with Facebook lobbyists

有些立法者和臉書說客合作 為該產業撰寫規範，

to write rules for the industry,

others have introduced a bill to break up Facebook

其他立法者則推出一項法案，

以瓦解臉書並懲罰它，

and punish it for its sheer size.

原因是它太大了。

Meanwhile, an informal poll of the Gen Zers in my life

同時，針對我人生中的 Z 世代所做的非正式民調

informs me that Facebook is "cringe."

告訴我臉書很「阿諛奉承」。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

TikTok is eating Facebook’s lunch,

抖音在吃臉書的午餐，

and the first-quarter earnings report of Meta came with a surprise.

而 Meta 的第一季 財務報表讓人很驚訝。

The market cap of the firm

該公司的市值下降到

had actually dropped below the level written into that bill

低於法案中為了懲罰企業過大

to punish firms for being too big.

而設定的標準。

So the joke's on Congress.

所以，出糗的是國會。

Facebook is going to end up avoiding regulation by shrinking,

臉書最後得要靠 縮減規模來避開法規，

but unfortunately, it's going to take its competitors with it.

但，不幸的是，臉書會把 它的競爭對手都一起拖下水。

This is a classic example of politicians being lagging, not leading, indicators.

這是政治人物扮演落後指標

而非領先指標的經典例子。

We are rich thanks to two centuries of global capitalism,

兩個世紀的全球資本主義 讓我們很富裕，

but we do still have problems.

但我們仍然有問題。

As a great sage once observed,

如同一位偉大聖賢曾經觀察到的，

“mo money” may in fact correlate with “mo problems.”

「錢越多」可能和「問題越多」 有關（聲名狼藉先生的歌）。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

The way forward is to figure out what the public and private sector

未來進展的方式是要搞清楚

公部門與私部門分別擅長什麼，

can each do best

and help them figure out how to stay in their lane.

並協助它們想辦法 守好它們的本份別越界。

When it comes to government,

至於政府，我能很開明的接受有可能

I am open to the possibility

that the answer to what it can do best is ...

「政府最擅長什麼」的答案會是……

nothing.

都不擅長。（笑聲）

(Laughter)

But we don't all have to become anarchists today.

但我們不用都在今天 就變成無政府主義者。

It's clear that liberal institutions, rule of law,

很明顯，

自由制度、法規、

functioning courts, private-property rights

能發揮作用的法庭、私有產權，

have been very powerful in this project of fostering innovation.

在促進創新的這個計畫中 都相當強而有力。

You already know what markets do best.

各位已經知道市場擅長什麼， 市場讓大家去做嘗試，

They let people try stuff,

they send strong signals when that stuff isn't working,

嘗試行不通時， 它們會發出強烈的訊號，

and they have fueled an incredible arc of growth

且它們已經協助促成了 很了不起的成長弧線

and poverty eradication.

及貧困的根絕。

If we are to have optimism for a radically better world

如果我們要抱持樂觀，

期待有個更好的世界，

to continue this path that capitalism has put us on,

持續走在資本主義 帶領我們走的這條路上，

we cannot let governments collaborate with business

我們不能讓政府

和企業合作，破壞市場的引擎。

to wreck the engine of the market.

Weirdos trying stuff and sometimes being allowed to fail at it

會去做嘗試且有時被允許失敗的怪咖

are our best hope as a species.

是我們人類最佳的希望。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Cheers and applause)

（歡呼及掌聲）