Steven Johnson: How humanity doubled life expectancy in a century | TED

88,821 views ใƒป 2021-12-09

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์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: ์‹œํ˜„ ์ตœ ๊ฒ€ํ† : Jihyeon J. Kim
๊ณ ์ „์ ์ธ ์‚ฌ๊ณ  ์‹คํ—˜์ด ํ•˜๋‚˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์˜ ๋‡Œ๊ฐ€ ๋‹น์žฅ์˜ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ 
์žฅ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋ณด๊ฒŒ๋” ์†์ž„์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ฑฐ๋Š” ์‹คํ—˜์ด์š”.
00:12
Here's a classic thought experiment
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์‹คํ—˜์€ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ง„ํ–‰๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:15
that's designed to trick your brain into thinking long-term
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์‹ ๋ฌธ์ด 10๋…„์— ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ์”ฉ ๋‚˜์˜จ๋‹ค๋ฉด
00:20
and getting out of the daily news cycle.
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๋งจ ์ฒซ ์žฅ์˜ ํ—ค๋“œ๋ผ์ธ์€ ๋ฌด์—‡์ด ๋ ๊นŒ์š”?
00:23
And it goes like this:
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00:24
if a newspaper came out once a century,
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โ€˜์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์น˜๋ฅผ ๋ชฐ์•„๋ƒˆ๋‹คโ€™ ํ˜น์€ โ€˜๋‹ฌ์— ์ƒ๋ฅ™ํ–ˆ๋‹คโ€™
์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด โ€˜์ธํ„ฐ๋„ท์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ–ˆ๋‹คโ€™?
00:30
what would the front page banner headline be?
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์ €๋Š” ํ—ค๋“œ๋ผ์ธ์ด ๋‹จ ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์ˆซ์ž์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋  ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ฃผ์žฅํ•  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:33
โ€œWe defeated the Nazis,โ€ or โ€œlanded on the moon,โ€
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ–๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์ธ ๋ฐœ์ „์˜ ์ง€ํ‘œ๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๊ฒ ์ฃ .
00:37
or "built the Internet"?
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00:39
I would argue that it would be the story of a single number,
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๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช… ๋ง์ด์—์š”.
00:43
maybe the most elemental measure of progress that we have.
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ํŠน์ • ์ง€์—ญ, ํŠน์ • ์‹œ๋Œ€์— ํƒœ์–ด๋‚œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด
์‚ถ์„ ์ง€์†ํ•˜๋ฆฌ๋ผ๊ณ  ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”
ํ‰๊ท ์ ์ธ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ธธ์ด ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:48
Life expectancy at birth.
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๋ฐฑ ๋…„ ์ „, ์ตœ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์— ๊ฐ€๊น๊ฒŒ ์ธก์ •ํ•˜์ž๋ฉด
00:51
The length of time
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00:52
that the average person can expect to live
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์„ธ๊ณ„ ํ‰๊ท  ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช…์€ 30๋Œ€ ์ค‘๋ฐ˜ ์–ด๋””์ฏค์— ์žˆ์—ˆ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:55
in a given place at a given time.
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00:58
One hundred years ago, as best as we can measure,
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์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช…์€ 70์„ธ๋ฅผ ๋ง‰ ๋„˜๊ฒผ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:01
the average global life expectancy stood somewhere in the mid 30s.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ํ•œ ์„ธ๊ธฐ ์•ˆ์—
์„ธ๊ณ„ ํ‰๊ท  ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช…์„ ๋‘ ๋ฐฐ๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“  ๊ฑฐ์˜ˆ์š”.
01:07
Today, it's just over 70.
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์ด ๊ทธ๋ฆผ, ์ง€๋„๋ฅผ ๋ณด์‹œ๋ฉด
์ด๊ฒŒ ์ง€๋„ ์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋ณด์ด๋Š”์ง€ ๊ฐ์„ ์žก์œผ์‹ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:11
So in one century,
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โ€˜Our World Dataโ€™๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ ๊ธฐ๊ด€์—์„œ ๋ฐ›์€
01:12
we doubled global life expectancy.
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๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ž๋ฃŒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:15
And to give a sense of what this looks like geographically,
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์ด๊ฒŒ 1950๋…„๋Œ€ ์„ธ์ƒ์˜ ๋ชจ์Šต์ด์—์š”.
01:18
take a look at this image, these maps.
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ํŒŒ๋ž€์ƒ‰์œผ๋กœ ์น ํ•ด์ง„ ๊ณณ๋“ค์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช…์ด 70์„ธ ์ด์ƒ์ธ ๊ณณ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:20
This is data courtesy of the great organization,
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01:22
Our World in Data.
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๋ถ์œ ๋Ÿฝ 5๊ฐœ์˜ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋งŒ์ด ๊ทธ๋žฌ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑธ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ฃ . ๊ทธ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์ด ๋์ด์—ˆ์–ด์š”.
01:24
This is the world in 1950.
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01:26
And in blue are the countries where life expectancy is more than 70.
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๋นจ๊ฐ„์ƒ‰์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช…์ด 45์„ธ ์ดํ•˜์˜€๋˜ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:31
You can see it's just five countries in northern Europe. That's it.
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์ง€๊ตฌ์˜ 3๋ถ„์˜ 1์„ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ–ˆ์ฃ .
01:36
And in red, these are the countries where life expectancy is below 45.
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ํ˜„์žฌ์™€ ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์šด ์‹œ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋นจ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ•ด ๋ณผ๊ฒŒ์š”.
2015๋…„, ํŒŒ๋ž€์ƒ‰์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช…์ด 70์„ธ ์œ„์ธ ๊ณณ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:42
It's about a third of the planet.
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์ง€๋„ ์œ„์˜ ์‚ถ๋“ค์„ ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋ด ๋ณด์„ธ์š”.
01:45
So fast-forward to more recent history.
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๋นจ๊ฐ„์ƒ‰์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช…์ด 45์„ธ ์ดํ•˜์ธ ๊ณณ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:47
2015 -- in blue the countries where life expectancy is above 70.
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์ง€๋„ ์œ„์— ๋นจ๊ฐ„์ƒ‰์ด ์—†์ฃ .
๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช…์ด 45์„ธ ์ดํ•˜์ธ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋Š” ์—†์–ด์กŒ์œผ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
01:53
Look at all that life.
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01:55
And in red, the countries where it's below 45.
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์‚ฌ์‹ค, 60์„ธ ์ดํ•˜์ธ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค๋„ ์ •๋ง ๋ช‡ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์ด๊ฑด ์ •๋ง ์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ๋ฐœ์ „์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:59
There's no red on the map
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02:00
because there are no countries where life expectancy is below 45.
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๊ฐ€๋” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด
๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช…๊ณผ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๋ฐœ์ „๋“ค์ด
02:04
In fact, there are very few where it's below 60.
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๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ํ†ต๊ณ„์  ์ฐฉ๊ฐ์ผ ๋ฟ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋ง์„ ๋“ค์—ˆ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:06
This is an extraordinary achievement.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์˜์•„ ์‚ฌ๋ง๋ฅ ์„ ๋‚ฎ์ท„์„ ๋ฟ์ด๋ผ๊ณ ,
02:09
And you'll sometimes hear people say
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02:11
that life expectancy and this kind of progress
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๊ทธ ๋ฐ–์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ์‚ถ์€ ๋ณ„๋ฐ˜ ๋‹ฌ๋ผ์ง„ ๊ฒŒ ์—†๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:13
is actually just a statistical illusion.
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๊ทผ 100๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ ์˜์•„ ์‚ฌ๋ง๋ฅ ์ด ๊ทน์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑด
02:16
That we got better at reducing infant mortality,
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์‚ฌ์‹ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋” ๋งŽ๊ณ  ๊ฐ•๋ ฌํ•œ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋“ค๋„ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ์ฃ .
02:20
but the rest of our lives are actually not all that different.
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๋น…ํ† ๋ฆฌ์•„ ์‹œ๋Œ€์˜ ์œ„๋Œ€ํ•œ ํ†ต๊ณ„ํ•™์ž,
02:23
And it is true that infant mortality has been dramatically reduced
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์œŒ๋ฆฌ์•” ํŒŒ์˜ ์˜ค๋ž˜๋œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์‹œ๊ฐ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์„ธ์š”.
02:26
over the last hundred years.
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02:28
But the story is much richer and more intense than that.
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1840๋…„๋Œ€ ์ดˆ๋ฐ˜ ๋Ÿฐ๋˜์˜
02:31
If you take a look at this early infographic
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์—ฐ๋ น๋Œ€ ๋ณ„ ์‚ฌ๋ง๋ฅ ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋ ค๊ณ  ์‹œ๋„ํ•œ ์ž๋ฃŒ์ฃ .
02:34
by the great Victorian statistician
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์ €๋Š” ์ด ๋„ํ‘œ์—์„œ ์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ํˆฌ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:36
William Farr,
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02:38
which is attempting to show mortality rates by age group
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์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณด์„ธ์š”. ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๋„, ์ธํ„ฐ๋„ท๋„, ์—‘์…€๋„ ์—†์ด
02:42
in London in the early 1840s.
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02:44
I find something incredibly heroic about this chart.
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์—„์ฒญ๋‚˜๊ฒŒ ํž˜๋“ค๋ฉด์„œ๋„ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ผ์„ ํ•ด๋‚ด๋ ค ํ•œ
ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ ๋ง์ด์—์š”.
02:48
I mean, here's a guy without computers, without the Internet, without Excel,
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๊ทธ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ค ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
02:52
trying to do something that is incredibly hard
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๋Œ€๋„์‹œ์—์„œ์˜ ์‚ถ๊ณผ ์ฃฝ์Œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ด‘๋ฒ”์œ„ํ•œ ํŒจํ„ด์„ ์ฐพ์•„ ๋ณด๋ ค ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:55
and incredibly important.
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์ฐจํŠธ๋Š”
02:57
He's trying to look at broad patterns in life and death in a great city,
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์œ„ํ˜‘์ ์ธ ์ˆ˜์ค€์œผ๋กœ ์ฃฝ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”
๋‹จ์ง€ ์‹ ์ƒ์•„ ๋ฟ๋งŒ์ด ์•„๋‹Œ
03:01
trying to make sense of what is going on.
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์–ด๋ฆฐ์ด์˜ ๋”์ฐํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋ง๋ฅ ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์คฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:04
And what the chart reveals
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85์„ธ๋‚˜ 90์„ธ๊นŒ์ง€ ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์—†์—ˆ์ฃ .
03:06
is that there is a tragic amount of death among children,
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03:08
not just infants, but five-year-olds and 10-year-olds
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45์„ธ์— ๋„๋‹ฌํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ์ „์ฒด ์ธ๊ตฌ์˜ ๋ฐ˜๋„ ์•ˆ ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:11
are dying at an alarming rate.
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03:13
But almost nobody makes it to 85 or 90.
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์ง€๊ธˆ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ 45์„ธ ์ด์ƒ์ธ ๋ถ„๋“ค์ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋ ๊นŒ์š”?
03:18
And more than half of the population is dead by the age of 45.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์š”? ๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ์ด๊ฑธ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณด์„ธ์š”. ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์˜ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜์ด ์—ฌ๊ธฐ ์—†์—ˆ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:24
How many people in this room are older than 45?
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์šฐ๋ฆฐ ๋‚™๊ด€๋ก ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์ข‹์€ ์†Œ์‹์˜ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์  ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์ด ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
03:29
Right? And think about that: half of you would not be here.
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ์‚ด์•„ ์žˆ์–ด์š”. ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ฃ ?
(์›ƒ์Œ)
03:33
We talk about optimism.
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03:34
That is the most fundamental form of good news there is.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ๊ฐ•์กฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์€ ๊ฒƒ์€
์ข‹์€ ์†Œ์‹์€ ๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ์€ ์•Š๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์˜ˆ์š”.
03:37
(Laughter)
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03:38
You are not dead. Right?
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03:40
(Laughter)
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๋ฐฑ ๋…„ ์ „, ์ง€๊ตฌ ์ƒ์—๋Š” 20์–ต ๋ช…๋„ ์•ˆ ๋˜๋Š” ์ธ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ์‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:42
So I want to stress here
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03:45
that this good news is not uncomplicated.
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์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚ ์—๋Š” 80์–ต ๋ช…์— ๋‹ฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์ ์  ๋Š˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ฃ .
03:50
100 years ago, there were less than two billion people on earth.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ œ์–ดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š” ์ธ๊ตฌ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์— ์ง๋ฉดํ•ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์•„๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋” ๋งŽ์ด ๋‚ณ๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ด์„œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ,
์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ด๋ฅธ ๋‚˜์ด์— ์ฃฝ์ง€ ์•Š๊ฒŒ ๋˜์–ด ์„ธ๋Œ€๋“ค์ด ๊ณ„์†ํ•ด์„œ ์Œ“์ด๊ฒŒ ๋๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
03:56
Today there's almost eight billion and counting.
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03:59
And we have that runaway population growth
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04:01
not because people started having more babies,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ถ”์„ธ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด
๊ธฐํ›„ ๋ณ€ํ™”์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ ๋“ค๋„ ์•ˆ๊ฒŒ ๋˜์—ˆ์ฃ .
04:04
but rather because people stopped dying and the generations stacked up.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ 1920๋…„๋Œ€์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ์‚ฌ๋ง๋ฅ ์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด
04:09
And we have problems like climate change
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ง€๊ธˆ ๋งˆ์ฃผํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ธฐํ›„ ์œ„๊ธฐ
๊ทธ ๊ทผ์ฒ˜์—๋„ ์•ˆ ๊ฐ”์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:12
because of these underlying trends as well.
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์ง€๊ตฌ ์ƒ์— ์œ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค ๋งŒํผ ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•œ ์–‘์˜ ํƒ„์†Œ๋ฅผ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ๋กœ ๋ฐฉ์ถœํ• 
04:14
If we had kept mortality rates where they were in 1920,
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์ธ๊ตฌ ์ž์ฒด๊ฐ€ ์—†์—ˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:18
we wouldn't have anywhere near the magnitude
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04:20
of the climate crisis we're facing now
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์ข€ ์ด์ƒํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋“ค๋ฆฌ๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ ๊ธฐํ›„ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋Š”
04:22
because there simply wouldn't have been enough people on the planet
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์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ ์ˆ˜๋ช…๊ณผ ์‚ฐ์—…ํ™”๊ฐ€ ๋ถˆ๋Ÿฌ์˜จ
04:25
to emit enough carbon into the atmosphere to make a meaningful difference.
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์˜๋„์น˜ ์•Š์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:29
In a weird sense, climate change
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ถ”๊ฐ€๋กœ ์–ป๊ฒŒ ๋œ ์ˆ˜๋ช…์€ ์–ด์ฐŒ ๋ณด๋ฉด ์–‘๋ฉด์ ์ธ ์ถ•๋ณต์ธ ์…ˆ์ด์ฃ .
04:31
is the unintended consequence of industrialization
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ค‘๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋“ค์ด ๊ทธ๋ ‡๋“ฏ ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:35
and increased longevity.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช…์„ ๋Š˜๋ ธ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค ๊ทธ ์ž์ฒด๋ณด๋‹ค ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กœ์šด ๊ฑด
04:38
So all this extra life is a mixed blessing,
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04:41
like any change this momentous.
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๊ทธ๊ฑธ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“  ๋ฐฉ์‹์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:45
But I want to stress not just that we did it,
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ์ ˆ ๊ทผ ๋ช‡๋…„ ๊ฐ„ ์‚ฌ๋กœ์žก๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜๊ณ ,
์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ฐธ์—ฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ค‘๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๊ธฐ์—ฌํ•œ
04:50
but I think the more interesting question is how we did it.
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์ฃผ์š”ํ•œ ์›์ธ์ด ๋ฌด์—‡์ธ์ง€ ์ฐพ์•„๋‚ด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:53
That's what's been obsessing me over the last years,
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๋ฌด์—‡์ด ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์ด๋Œ์—ˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
04:56
that's the investigation I've been on,
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์ €๋Š” ์ง€๊ธˆ ์ด ์„ธ์ƒ์— ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ์ผ๋“ค์„ ๊ฐ์•ˆํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด
04:58
trying to figure out what are the prime movers
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋„ ์•„์‹œ๋‹ค์‹œํ”ผ,
05:00
when we see change this momentous.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ ์ฃผ์š” ์›์ธ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋ฅผ
05:02
What is really driving that change?
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๋ฐฑ์‹ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ผฝ์•„์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ 
05:05
And I think we should say,
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05:07
given everything that's happening in the world,
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์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:09
we should point out that, you know,
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๋งž์ฃ ? ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š”
(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
05:11
one of those prime movers, which we should shout from the rooftops,
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ฃ , ๋งž์ฃ ?
๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:15
is vaccines.
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐฑ์‹ ์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:17
Right? We doubled --
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
05:18
(Applause)
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์ œ ๋ง์€, ์ฒœ์—ฐ๋‘, ์†Œ์•„๋งˆ๋น„, ์ธํ”Œ๋ฃจ์—”์ž, ๊ฒฐํ•ต, ํ™์—ญ, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜ 19๊นŒ์ง€์š”.
05:20
Yes, right?
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05:22
Thank you.
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05:23
I did invent vaccines, so I appreciate that.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋‹ฌ ์ฐฉ๋ฅ™์„ ์ถ•ํ•˜ํ–ˆ๋“ฏ
05:25
(Laughter)
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05:27
I mean, for smallpox to polio, influenza, TB and measles, and covid.
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์ฒœ์—ฐ๋‘์˜ ๊ทผ์ ˆ ๋˜ํ•œ ์ถ•ํ•˜ํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
๋ฐฑ์‹ ์„ ๊บผ๋ คํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์ง€๊ธˆ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋งŽ์ง€๋Š” ์•Š๊ฒ ์ฃ .
05:33
I mean, if we celebrated the eradication of smallpox
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ „
๋ฐฑ์‹ , ํ•ญ์ƒ์ œ, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์—‘์Šค๋ ˆ์ด์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ
05:36
the way we celebrate the moon landing,
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05:38
we would have a lot less vaccine hesitancy in the world right now.
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๋ˆˆ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด๊ณ  ๋งŒ์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ณผํ•™์  ๋ฐœ์ „์—๋งŒ ์ง‘์ค‘ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ๋˜ํ•œ
์ž˜๋ชป๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:42
But I also think it's a mistake
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05:43
to focus exclusively on the march of science
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ•œ ๋ง์„ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•˜์ž๋ฉด,
19์„ธ๊ธฐ์˜ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋ฌด์‹œ๋ฌด์‹œํ–ˆ๋˜ ์œ„ํ˜‘๋“ค ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋ฅผ
05:47
and the kind of tangible objects,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ •๋ณตํ–ˆ๋Š”์ง€ ์•Œ์•„๋ณด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋„
05:48
like vaccines and antibiotics or X-rays.
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05:52
And to explain what I mean by that,
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์œ ์šฉํ•  ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๋Š” ๋œป์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:54
I think it's useful to look at the story
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์šฐ์œ  ๋ง์ด์—์š”.
05:56
of how we conquered one of the most terrifying threats
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์ง€๊ธˆ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์šฐ์œ ๋ฅผ ๊ฑด๊ฐ•๊ณผ ์ƒ๋ช…์˜ ์ƒ์ง•์œผ๋กœ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์ง€๋งŒ,
06:00
of the 19th century.
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์‚ฌ์‹ค 19์„ธ๊ธฐ ์ค‘๋ฐ˜๋งŒ ํ•ด๋„
06:03
Milk.
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์šฐ์œ ๋Š” ํŠนํžˆ ์–ด๋ฆฐ์ด์—๊ฒŒ ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•œ ๊ฑด๊ฐ•์˜ ์œ„ํ˜‘์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:04
Now, we think of milk as this kind of emblem of health and vitality,
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๋ƒ‰์žฅ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ์กด์žฌํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๊ณ ,
๋ถ€ํŒจ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:09
but in fact, in the middle of the 19th century,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์šฐ์œ  ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๊ฒฐํ•ต์— ๊ฑธ๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ๋„ ํ–ˆ์–ด์š”.
06:12
milk was a serious health threat, particularly to children.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ผ๋“ค์ด
06:14
We had no mechanical refrigeration
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์†Œ์—๊ฒŒ ์ž”๋””๋ฅผ ๋จน์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์—†์–ด์„œ
06:16
and so there was a lot of spoilage problems.
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๋Œ€์‹  ์œ„์Šคํ‚ค ์ฆ๋ฅ˜ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์˜ ์“ฐ๋ ˆ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋จน์ธ ์‹œ๊ณจ ์†Œ์—๊ฒŒ์„œ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚œ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค์„ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:18
People could get tuberculosis from milk.
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์†Œ์—๊ฒŒ ๊ทธ๊ฑธ ๋จน์ธ๋‹ค๋‹ˆ, ์ •๋ง ๋Œ€๋‹จํ•œ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์ด์—ˆ๋„ค์š”.
06:20
They figured out this thing for urban cattle
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์†Œ๋“ค์€ ํ‘ธ๋ฅธ๋น›์ด ๋„๋Š” ์šฐ์œ ๋ฅผ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
06:23
where they couldn't feed them grass
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์ด๋Š” ๊ตฌ์ •๋ฌผ ์šฐ์œ ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถˆ๋ ธ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์•„์ฃผ ์œ„ํ—˜ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:24
so they would feed them slop from whiskey distilleries --
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1850๋…„์—
06:27
instead of grass, brilliant idea --
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๋‰ด์š•์—์„œ ๊ธฐ๋ก๋œ ์‚ฌ๋ง์ž ์ค‘ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜ ์ด์ƒ์ด ์–ด๋ฆฐ์ด์˜€๊ณ 
06:29
which produced this kind of blue-tinted milk
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06:32
that was very dangerous, called swill milk.
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๊ทธ ์ค‘ ๋‹ค์ˆ˜๋Š” ์˜ค์—ผ๋œ ์šฐ์œ ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์ฃฝ์Œ์„ ๋งž์ดํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:35
In 1850,
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๋ณด์„ธ์š”, ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์–ด๋–ค ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ์••๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:36
more than half of all the deaths recorded in New York City were young children,
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์–ด๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ณ„์‹œ๊ฒ ์ง€์š”.
โ€œ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ–ˆ๋Š”์ง€ ์•Œ์•„.
06:40
many of them killed by contaminated milk.
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๊ณผํ•™์œผ๋กœ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ–ˆ์ž–์•„. ํ™”ํ•™์œผ๋กœ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ–ˆ์ž–์•„.โ€
๋งž์ง€์š”? ํ•ด๊ฒฐ์ฑ…์ด ์›Œ๋‚™ ์œ ๋ช…ํ•˜๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
06:43
And look, I know what you're thinking.
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06:45
You're thinking, "I know how we solved this problem.
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์ด ๋‚˜๋ผ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‹๋ฃŒํ’ˆ์ ์˜
๋ชจ๋“  ์šฐ์œ ๊ณฝ์— ๋–กํ•˜๋‹ˆ ์ƒˆ๊ฒจ์ ธ ์žˆ์ฃ , ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ฃ ?
06:48
We solved it with science.
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06:49
We solved it with chemistry."
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ €์˜จ์‚ด๊ท ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:51
Right? I mean, the solution is so famous.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋ฃจ์ด์Šค ํŒŒ์Šคํ‡ด๋ฅด๊ฐ€
06:53
It's sitting there printed on every carton of milk
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06:56
in every grocery store in the country, right?
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06:58
Pasteurization.
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์šฐ์œ ๋ฅผ ์‚ด๊ท ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ทธ์˜ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„
07:00
But actually, the story of pasteurization is a case study in the limits of science
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1865๋…„์— ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ƒˆ๋Š”๋ฐ๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ 
์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ €์˜จ ์‚ด๊ท ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ ์ „์ œ๋กœ ํ•œ ์šฐ์œ ๋ฅผ
07:06
because Louis Pasteur came up with his technique for sterilizing milk
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50๋…„์ด ํ๋ฅธ 1915๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ์ ‘ํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•œ ๊ฑด
07:10
in 1865,
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ๊ณผํ•™์˜ ํ•œ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค€ ์‚ฌ๋ก€์— ํ•ด๋‹นํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:13
but we didn't actually have pasteurized milk as a standard
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07:16
on American grocery storesโ€™ shelves until 1915,
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๊ณผํ•™๊ณผ ํ™”ํ•™์ด
๊ทธ ์ž์ฒด๋กœ๋Š” ์œ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ธฐ์— ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:21
a full 50 years later.
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์„ค๋“ ๋˜ํ•œ ํ•„์š”ํ–ˆ์ฃ .
07:24
And that's because science and chemistry on its own wasn't enough
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์ €์˜จ ์‚ด๊ท ํ•œ ์šฐ์œ ๋ฅผ ๋จน๋„๋ก ์„ค๋“ํ•ด์•ผ ํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
์œ ์ œํ’ˆ ์‹œ์žฅ์— ์ €์˜จ ์‚ด๊ท  ์šฐ์œ ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค๋„๋ก ์„ค๋“ํ•ด์•ผ ํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
07:29
to make a meaningful change.
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07:31
You also needed persuasion.
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์ด๋Š” ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ์ข…๋ฅ˜์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ํ•„์š”๋กœ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:34
You had to convince people to drink pasteurized milk,
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๋‚จ์˜ ์‚ฌ์ƒํ™œ์„ ์บ๋Š” ๊ธฐ์ž๋“ค๋„์š”.
07:37
you had to convince the dairy industry to make pasteurized milk,
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์ ๊ทน์ ์ธ ๊ตญํšŒ์˜์›๋“ค๋„์š”.
07:40
and that took a whole other cast of characters.
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๊ทธ ๋‹น์‹œ, ์ €์˜จ ์‚ด๊ท ์„ ํ™œ์„ฑํ™”ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ ์ •๋ง ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ๋…ธ๋ ฅ์ด ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:43
It took muckraking journalists.
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๊ทธ์ค‘ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋œป๋ฐ–์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€
07:45
It took crusading lawmakers.
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๋„ค์ด๋‹จ ์ŠคํŠธ๋ผ์šฐ์Šค๋ผ๋Š” ๋ฐฑํ™”์  ๋งค๋‹ˆ์ €์ผ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™๋„ค์š”.
07:48
There was a whole subculture of pasteurization activists back then.
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๊ทธ๋Š” ์ €์˜จ ์‚ด๊ท ์— ์™„์ „ํžˆ ์‚ฌ๋กœ์žกํžŒ ๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€
๋‰ด์š•์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์šฐ์œ  ์ฐฝ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ์ง€์›ํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
07:52
Maybe the most unlikely one was a department store magnate
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๊ทธ ๊ณณ์—์„œ ์ €์˜จ ์‚ด๊ท ํ•œ ์šฐ์œ ๋Š” ์ €์†Œ๋“์ธต์ด ๋งˆ์‹œ๊ณ  ๋ง›์„ ๋“ค์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ์ •๋„๋กœ
07:55
named Nathan Straus,
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07:57
who got obsessed with the pasteurization cause
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์ €๋ ดํ•œ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์— ํŒ๋งค๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:59
and he funded all these milk depots all around New York City
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์–ด๋–ค ์‹œ๊ฐ์œผ๋กœ๋Š”
08:02
where pasteurized milk was sold at cost
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ํŒŒ์Šคํ‡ด๋ฅด๊ฐ€ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ํ™”ํ•™์ ์ธ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์—์„œ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
08:06
to low-income residents so that they would develop a taste for it.
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๋ฐ˜๋ฉด ์ŠคํŠธ๋ผ์šฐ์Šค์™€ ๊ทธ์˜ ๋™๋ฃŒ๋“ค์€ ์‚ฌํšŒ์ ์ธ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์—์„œ ์ด๋ฅผ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:09
So in a sense, the way to think about it
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08:11
is that Pasteur solved the problem on the level of chemistry,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์ผ์œผํ‚ค๋ ค๋ฉด ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ๊ทธ ๋‘ ์ง‘๋‹จ์ด ๋ชจ๋‘ ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:15
but Straus and his allies solved it on the level of society.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ณดํ†ต ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํžˆ ๋‹ค๋ฃจ์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ค‘์š” ์›์ธ์ด ํ•˜๋‚˜ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ,
ํŒŒ๊ดด์ ์ธ ํ˜์‹ ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋ฌธ๋งฅ์—์„œ๋Š” ์•ฝ๊ฐ„ ๋งž์ง€ ์•Š๊ธด ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ
08:20
And you need both fronts to effect change on that scale.
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ด€๋ฃŒ์ฃผ์˜์  ๊ธฐ๊ด€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:24
And there's another prime mover that we don't talk about enough,
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08:27
which seems a little bit unlikely in the context of disruptive innovation,
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์ง€๊ธˆ ์ด ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด ๋ชจ์ˆœ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋Š๊ปด์ง€๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ
08:31
and that is large bureaucratic institutions.
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20์„ธ๊ธฐ ์ดˆ์˜ ์•„๋ฌด ์˜์•ฝํ’ˆ ์นดํƒˆ๋กœ๊ทธ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋งŒ ์ง‘์–ด ํŽ˜์ด์ง€๋ฅผ ๋„˜๊ฒจ ๋ณด์‹œ๊ธธ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:35
Now, if that seems contradictory to you, I suggest that you flip through the pages
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๊ทธ ๊ธด ๋ชฉ๋ก ์† ํ•˜๋‚˜ ํ•˜๋‚˜๊ฐ€ ๋ชจ๋‘
08:39
of any pharmaceutical drug catalog from the early 20th century.
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์น˜๋ช…์ ์ธ ๋…์•ฝ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๋น„์†Œ, ์ˆ˜์€, ๋ฒจ๋ผ๋„๋‚˜... ํ—ค๋กœ์ธ๊ณผ ์ฝ”์นด์ธ์€ ๋งํ•  ๊ฒƒ๋„ ์—†๊ณ ์š”.
08:43
I mean, these things are just a laundry list of deadly poisons,
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์˜ํ•™ ๋ถ„์•ผ์˜ ๋งŽ์€ ์—ญ์‚ฌํ•™์ž๋“ค์€ 1940๋…„๋Œ€ ํ•ญ์ƒ์ œ์˜ ๋ฐœ๋ช… ์ „๊นŒ์ง€
08:48
one after another:
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08:49
arsenic, mercury, belladonna, not to mention all the heroin and cocaine.
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๊ทœ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ฑธ๋ ค ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๋ชจ๋“  ์•ฝ๋ฌผ๋“ค์ด
์ธ์ฒด์— ๋ถ€์ •์ ์ธ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ผ์ณค๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:55
A lot of medical historians believe that all-in pharmaceutical drugs
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๊ทธ ๋‹น์‹œ์˜ ์‚ถ์€ ๊ทธ๋žฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  1937๋…„, ์—ฐ์‡„์ƒ ๊ตฌ๊ท ์— ๊ฐ์—ผ๋œ ๋ชฉ์„ ์น˜๋ฃŒํ•˜๋Š”
09:00
were a net negative in terms of human health
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09:02
until the invention of antibiotics in the 1940s.
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์–ด๋ฆฐ์ด๋ฅผ ํƒ€๊ฒŸ์œผ๋กœ ํ•œ ๊ธฐ์นจ์•ฝ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋ฅผ ๋– ์˜ฌ๋ฆฐ
09:05
That's what life was like.
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ํ…Œ๋„ค์‹œ ์ œ์•ฝ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:07
And in 1937, there was this Tennessee pharma startup
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๊ทธ ๋‹น์‹œ์—๋Š” ์„คํŒŒ์ œ๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š”
09:11
that hit upon this idea for a new cough syrup,
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ํ•ญ์ƒ์ œ์˜ ์กฐ์ƒ ๊ฒฉ์ธ ์‹ ์•ฝ์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:14
a cure for strep throat actually, targeted at children.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ์•„์ด๋“ค์ด ์‚ผํ‚ค๊ธฐ ํž˜๋“  ํ˜•ํƒœ์ธ
09:18
At the time, there was a new drug called sulfa drugs
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ํ†ตํ†ตํ•œ ์•Œ์•ฝ ์†์— ๋„ฃ์–ด์ ธ ์žˆ์—ˆ์ฃ .
๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด ์Šคํƒ€ํŠธ์—…์˜ ์•ฝ์‚ฌ๋Š”
09:22
that were kind of a forerunner of antibiotics.
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์„คํŒŒ์ œ๋ฅผ ๋””์—ํ‹ธ๋ Œ ๊ธ€๋ฆฌ์ฝœ์— ๋…น์ธ ํ›„
09:24
But they were generally packaged in this bulky pill format,
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์•„์ด๋“ค์˜ ์ž…๋ง›์— ๋งž๋„๋ก
09:27
very difficult for kids to swallow.
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09:29
So a chemist at this startup
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๋ผ์ฆˆ๋ฒ ๋ฆฌ ํ–ฅ๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๋„ฃ๋Š” ํš๊ธฐ์ ์ธ ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:31
came up with the brilliant idea of dissolving the sulfa drug
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๋””์—ํ‹ธ๋ Œ ๊ธ€๋ฆฌ์ฝœ์ด ์ธ์ฒด์— ์œ ํ•ดํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋งŒ ๋นผ๋ฉด
09:35
in diethylene glycol
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์ •๋ง ํš๊ธฐ์ ์ธ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด์˜€์ฃ .
09:37
and then adding some raspberry flavoring to make it more palatable for the kids.
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๋””์—ํ‹ธ๋ Œ ๊ธ€๋ฆฌ์ฝœ์€ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ€๋™์•ก์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:41
Seemed like a brilliant idea,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์ฆ‰๊ฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ, ํ•œ ์ผ์ฃผ์ผ ํ›„์—”
09:43
except that diethylene glycol is toxic to human beings.
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์ด ์น˜๋ช…์ ์ธ ํ˜ผํ•ฉ๋ฌผ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด
09:47
It's basically antifreeze.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ ์‹ญ์—ฌ ๋ช…์˜ ์‚ฌ๋ง์ž๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ–ˆ์ฃ .
์‹ ๊ธฐํ•œ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์€
09:51
And so almost immediately, weeks after,
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1์ผ ๊ธฐ์ค€์น˜๋ฅผ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด๋ฉด
09:53
there were dozens of deaths around the United States
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์•ฝ์— ๋””์—ํ‹ธ๋ Œ ๊ธ€๋ฆฌ์ฝœ์„ ๋„ฃ๋Š” ๊ฑด ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์˜ˆ์š”.
09:55
from this terrible concoction,
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09:57
and the crazy thing is that putting diethylene glycol in your medicine
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FDA๊ฐ€ ์ง„์ •์œผ๋กœ ๊ด€์‹ฌ์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ๋˜ ๋‹จ ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋Š”
๋ผ๋ฒจ์— ์•ฝ๋ฌผ์˜ ์›์žฌ๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ
10:01
was not a problem,
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ํ‘œ๊ธฐํ•˜๋Š”์ง€์˜ ์—ฌ๋ถ€์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:02
given the existing regulations of the day.
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10:05
The only thing that the FDA was really interested in
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ๊ธฐ์นจ์•ฝ์— ๋ถ€๋™์•ก์„ ๋„ฃ๊ณ  ์‹ถ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
๋ผ๋ฒจ์— ์›์žฌ๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ํ‘œ๊ธฐํ•˜๋Š” ํ•œ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ–ˆ๋˜ ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
10:08
was whether you were actually listing
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10:10
the ingredients of your potion on the label.
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๊ทธ ๋‹น์‹œ์˜ ์‚ถ์€ ๊ทธ๋žฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋น„๊ทน์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ๋ฒ•์ด ๋ฐ”๋€Œ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:13
So if you wanted to put antifreeze in your cough syrup,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  FDA๋Š” ์ตœ์ดˆ๋กœ
10:16
go ahead, as long as you list ingredients on the label.
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์ œ์•ฝ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์ด ๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ์•ฝ์ด ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Œ์„ ์ฆ๋ช…ํ•˜๋„๋ก ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:18
That's what life was like.
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10:20
But because of this tragedy, laws were changed.
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์ง€๊ธˆ์€ ๋‹น์—ฐํ•ด ๋ณด์ด์ง€๋งŒ, ๋งจ ์ฒ˜์Œ์—๋Š” ๋ˆ„๊ตฐ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋‚ด์•ผ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:23
And for the first time, the FDA mandated
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ ์‹œ์ ์— ํ•„์š”ํ–ˆ๋˜ ๊ฑด ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๊ธฐ์ ์˜ ์•ฝ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ์—ˆ์–ด์š”.
10:25
the pharma companies show that their drugs were not harmful to consumers,
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10:29
which seems kind of obvious, but somebody had to figure that out.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ œ๋„๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ–ˆ๋˜ ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
10:33
And so what we needed at that point was not just kind of new miracle drugs.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” 3์ฐจ์˜ ์ž„์ƒ ์‹คํ—˜,
๋ฌด์ž‘์œ„ ๋Œ€์กฐ ์‹คํ—˜,
๊ฐ€์งœ ์น˜๋ฃŒ์ œ์™€ ์ง„์งœ ์น˜๋ฃŒ์ œ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ๋ณ„ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
10:39
We needed new institutions.
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FDA๋ฅผ ๋น„๋กฏํ•œ ๊ทœ์ œ ๊ธฐ๊ด€ ๊ฐ™์€
10:41
We needed new medi-innovations,
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์˜๋ฃŒ์  ํ˜์‹ ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ–ˆ๋˜ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:44
like three phase trials
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10:46
and randomized controlled experiments,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ œ๋„์  ํ˜์‹ ์€
10:48
and regulatory bodies, like the FDA,
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10:51
to separate out the fake cures from the real thing.
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์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ํ๋ฆ„์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๋”๋”์šฑ ์ค‘์š”ํ•ด์งˆ ๊ฑฐ์˜ˆ์š”.
10:55
And that kind of institutional innovation is going to be increasingly important
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์ง€๊ธˆ ์ „์„ธ๊ณ„์—๋Š”
๋„‰๋„‰ํžˆ ์ง€์›์„ ๋ฐ›์€ ๊ณผํ•™์ž๋“ค๊ณผ ์‹ฌ์˜คํ•œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์‹ค๋“ค์ด
๋…ธํ™” ๊ทธ ์ž์ฒด์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ์™€ ์‹ธ์šฐ๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:01
in the decades to come,
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11:03
because all around the world right now,
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์ œ ๋ง์€, ์ธ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜๋ช…์˜ ๋งจ ๋ฐ”๊นฅ์ชฝ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ„๋Š”
11:05
there are well-funded scientists and serious labs that are working
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110์„ธ์—์„œ 115์„ธ ์–ด๋”˜๊ฐ€์— ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:08
on tackling the problem of aging itself.
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๊ทธ ์ด์ƒ์„ ์‚ด๊ธฐ๋Š” ๋งค์šฐ ํž˜๋“ค์ฃ .
ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ํ—ˆ๋ฌผ์–ด๋œจ๋ฆฌ๊ณ 
11:12
I mean, currently the outer boundary of human life
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๋ช‡์‹ญ ๋…„, ์‹ฌ์ง€์–ด ๋ฌดํ•œ์ • ๋” ์‚ด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ฃผ์žฅํ•˜๋Š”
11:15
is somewhere around 110 and 115.
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์ง„์ง€ํ•œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋“ค์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:17
It's very hard to live past that.
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๊ทธ ์ผ์ด ๋ฒŒ์–ด์งˆ ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฑด ์•„๋‹ˆ์ง€๋งŒ ๋…ผ์˜ ์ค‘์ธ ์ผ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:20
But there is serious research out there
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11:22
that suggests that we can just blow past that boundary
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์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ๊ฑธ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“ ๋‹ค๋ฉด
11:24
and live for decades longer, maybe even indefinitely.
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์ธ๊ฐ„์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์ข…์˜ ์—ญ์‚ฌ ์ƒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ธฐ๋…๋น„์ ์ธ ๋ณ€ํ™”๊ฐ€ ๋˜๊ฒ ์ฃ , ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ฃ ?
11:28
I'm not saying this is going to happen, but it is on the table.
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์ฒ˜์Œ์— ๊ทธ๊ฑด
11:32
And the thing about it is, if we did do that,
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์ „์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ๊ฑด๊ฐ• ๋ถˆํ‰๋“ฑ์„ ์‹ฌํ™”ํ•  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:34
it would be the most momentous change in the history of our species, right?
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์™œ๋‚˜ํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ถ€์œ ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๋งŒ์ด ์น˜๋ฃŒ ๋น„์šฉ์„ ๊ฐ๋‹นํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ํ…Œ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
11:38
Initially, it would intensely --
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์ œ์–ด ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ์ธ๊ตฌ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ๋” ์•…ํ™”์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ 
11:40
increase the health inequalities in the world
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์ธ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜๋ช…์˜ ๋ฒ”์œ„์˜ ์ •์˜๋ฅผ ๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ”๊พธ์–ด ๋†“์„ ๊ฑฐ์˜ˆ์š”.
11:44
because people could -- only rich people could afford these treatments originally.
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11:48
It would greatly exacerbate our runaway population growth problem
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ๋ถˆ๋ฉธ์„ ๋‘๊ณ  ์ด๋ฆฌ์ €๋ฆฌ ์‹œ๋„ํ•ด ๋ด์•ผ ํ• ์ง€ ๋ฌป๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด
11:51
and it would fundamentally alter the definition of the arc of a human life.
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์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ์˜ค๋ผ๊ณ  ๋Œ€๋‹ตํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€
11:56
And when you ask people, do you think we should mess around with immortality,
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํฐ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์‹œ๋„ํ•ด ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋•๋Š” ์ง‘๋‹น์„ฑ์„ ๊ฐ–์ถ”๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:00
ordinary people, most of them say no.
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12:03
But the problem is we don't have collectively
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” 1930๋…„๋Œ€์˜ FDA์™€ ๊ฐ™์•„์š”.
12:06
a decision-making body that can help us wrestle with changes this immense.
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ํ•ด๋ด, ๋„ค ๋ถˆ๋ฉธ์˜ ์•ฝ์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด ๋ด, ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ๋ผ๋ฒจ์— ์žฌ๋ฃŒ๊ฐ€ ์จ์ ธ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€ ์‹ ๊ฒฝ๋งŒ ์ข€ ์จ์ค˜.
์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ง€๊ธˆ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด์š”.
12:13
We're like the FDA back in 1930,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ํ˜์‹ ์˜ ์ข…๋ฅ˜๋Š”
12:15
like, go ahead and make your immortality pill.
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12:17
Just make sure the ingredients are right on the label.
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๋„˜๊ฒจ์งš์Œ๊ณผ ์˜์‚ฌ ๊ฒฐ์ •์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ 
12:20
That's where we are.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋…ธ๋ ฅํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ํ˜์‹ ์„ ์ด๋Œ์–ด ๋‚ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:21
So the kinds of innovations we need are going to be on the level of oversight
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์ง€๊ธˆ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๊ณผ๋„ํ•œ ๊ทœ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ž„์„ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด์š”.
12:27
and decision making,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฏ€๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š”
12:29
and I think we can make these innovations if we if we work at it.
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์œ„ํ—˜๊ณผ ์˜๋„์น˜ ์•Š์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ๋ชจ๋‘์— ๋ฏผ๊ฐํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ๋„ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ์—ด์–ด๋†“๋Š”
12:32
Now, we all realize that regulatory overreach is a problem.
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์˜์‚ฌ ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ธฐ๊ด€์„ ๊ณ ์•ˆํ•ด์•ผ ํ•  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:37
So we're going to have to design decision-making bodies
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์— ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์‚ถ์„ ๋ฌดํ•œ์ • ์—ฐ์žฅํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค
12:40
that are both sensitive to the dangers and the unintended consequences,
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12:44
but also genuinely open to the possibilities.
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์ง€๊ธˆ ๋‚จ์•„์žˆ๋Š” ์„ธ๊ณ„ ๊ณณ๊ณณ์˜ ๊ฑด๊ฐ• ๊ฒฉ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ์ค„์ด๋Š” ๋ฐ
12:48
But to my mind, we should be focusing less on extending life indefinitely
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๋” ์ง‘์ค‘ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์ œ ๋ง์€, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ง€๋‚œ ์ผ ๋…„ ๋ฐ˜ ๋™์•ˆ ๊ฒช์–ด์™”๋˜ ๊ฑธ ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ ๋ณด์„ธ์š”.
12:53
and more on reducing the gaps that remain in health outcomes
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ํ‰๊ท ์ ์œผ๋กœ, ๋ฐฑ์ธ์˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ์€ 2020๋…„์— ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช… 1๋…„์ด ์ค„์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:57
here and around the world.
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12:59
I mean, just look at what we've lived through in the past year and a half.
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์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜ ๋•๋ถ„์— ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
๋ฐ˜๋ฉด ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด๊ณ„ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช… 3๋…„์„ ์žƒ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:03
On average, white Americans lost one year of expected life in 2020,
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๋˜ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช…๊ณผ ๊ฑด๊ฐ• ์ˆ˜๋ช…์˜ ๊ฒฉ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ์ค„์ด๋Š” ๋ฐ
์ง‘์ค‘ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:08
thanks largely to covid.
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13:09
African Americans lost three years.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์˜จ์ „ํžˆ ๊ฑด๊ฐ•ํ•˜๊ณ 
์ตœ์ƒ์˜ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๋ณด๋‚ด๋Š” ์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ธธ์ด ๋ง์ด์—์š”.
13:13
And we should be focusing on reducing the gap
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค์ด์•ผ๋ง๋กœ
13:15
between what we call health span and lifespan.
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ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•  ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๊ณ 
13:17
The amount of time that we spend
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์ง€๊ธˆ ๋‹น์žฅ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋ฐ ๋™์˜ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:19
that is fundamentally healthy and full capacity.
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์ธ๋ฅ˜์˜ ๊ฑด๊ฐ•์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์ฒซ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์ปค๋‹ค๋ž€ ํ˜์‹ ์ด
13:23
I think we all agree that these are problems
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13:25
that are worth solving
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๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช… ์ „๋ฐ˜์„ ์—ฐ์žฅํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
13:26
and we have the tools at our disposal right now to solve them.
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๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋Š” ๊ทธ ๊ฒฉ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ์ค„์ด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:30
If the first great revolution in human health
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๋Œ€๋‹จํžˆ ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:34
was extending the overall average human life,
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
13:37
the second should be about closing the gaps.
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13:41
Thank you very much.
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13:43
(Applause)
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์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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