How will AI change the world?

Translator: Xusto Rodriguez Reviewer: Servizo de Normalización Lingüística

Nos vindeiros anos, a intelixencia artificial (IA)

In the coming years, artificial intelligence

probablemente vai cambiar a túa vida, e a de todo o mundo.

is probably going to change your life, and likely the entire world.

Pero non nos pomos de acordo sobre como o vai facer exactamente

But people have a hard time agreeing on exactly how.

O que segue son fragmentos dunha entrevista

The following are excerpts from an interview

where renowned computer science professor and AI expert Stuart Russell

na que Stuart Russell, coñecido profesor de informática e experto en IA,

helps separate the sense from the nonsense.

axuda a separar o verdadeiro do falso.

There’s a big difference between asking a human to do something

Hai unha gran diferenza entre pedirlle a un ser humano que faga algo

and giving that as the objective to an AI system.

e marcarlle o mesmo obxectivo a un sistema de IA.

When you ask a human to get you a cup of coffee,

Se lle pides a un humano que che traia un café,

you don’t mean this should be their life’s mission,

non significa que esa deba ser a misión da súa vida

and nothing else in the universe matters.

e que nada máis importe no universo.

Even if they have to kill everybody else in Starbucks

Que se ten que matar a toda a clientela do Starbucks

to get you the coffee before it closes— they should do that.

para conseguirche o café antes do peche, debe facelo.

No, that’s not what you mean.

Abofé que non lle dis iso.

All the other things that we mutually care about,

Todas as outras cousas que nos importan

they should factor into your behavior as well.

tamén deben influír no noso comportamento.

And the problem with the way we build AI systems now

O problema da construción de sistemas de IA na actualidade é

is we give them a fixed objective.

que lles damos un obxectivo fixo.

The algorithms require us to specify everything in the objective.

Os algoritmos precisan que detallemos todo sobre o obxectivo.

And if you say, can we fix the acidification of the oceans?

E se lle dixésemos: “Podemos solucionar a acidificación dos océanos?”

Yeah, you could have a catalytic reaction that does that extremely efficiently,

Si, pódese deseñar unha reacción catalítica

que o faga de forma eficiente,

but it consumes a quarter of the oxygen in the atmosphere,

pero consumiría a cuarta parte do osíxeno da atmosfera,

which would apparently cause us to die fairly slowly and unpleasantly

o que nos causaría unha morte lenta e dolorosa

over the course of several hours.

no transcurso dunhas poucas horas.

So, how do we avoid this problem?

Entón, como evitarmos este problema?

You might say, okay, well, just be more careful about specifying the objective—

Poderiamos dicir: “cómpre ser máis coidadoso ao especificar o obxectivo,

don’t forget the atmospheric oxygen.

non esquecer o osíxeno atmosférico”.

And then, of course, some side effect of the reaction in the ocean

Pero un efecto secundario da reacción no océano

poisons all the fish.

envelena todos os peixes.

Okay, well I meant don’t kill the fish either.

“Ben, cómpre non matarmos os peixes tampouco”.

And then, well, what about the seaweed?

E entón, que pasa coas algas?

Don’t do anything that’s going to cause all the seaweed to die.

“Non fagas nada que cause a morte das algas”.

And on and on and on.

E así unha e outra vez.

And the reason that we don’t have to do that with humans is that

E se non temos que facer iso cos seres humanos é porque

humans often know that they don’t know all the things that we care about.

eles saben que non saben todas as cousas que nos preocupan.

If you ask a human to get you a cup of coffee,

Se lle pides a un ser humano que che traia unha cunca de café,

and you happen to be in the Hotel George Sand in Paris,

e cadra que estades no Hotel George V, en París,

where the coffee is 13 euros a cup,

onde o café custa 13 euros,

it’s entirely reasonable to come back and say, well, it’s 13 euros,

é moi razoable que a persoa volva e che diga: “Son 13 euros,

are you sure you want it, or I could go next door and get one?

seguro que o queres? Ou prefires que o merque noutro sitio?”

And it’s a perfectly normal thing for a person to do.

E unha reacción normal de todo nunha persoa.

To ask, I’m going to repaint your house—

Se alguén vai repintar a túa casa, que che pregunte:

is it okay if I take off the drainpipes and then put them back?

“podo quitar as baixantes e despois volvo poñelas?”

We don't think of this as a terribly sophisticated capability,

non nos parece unha capacidade moi sofisticada.

but AI systems don’t have it because the way we build them now,

Pero os sistemas de IA non a teñen, porque os construímos de xeito

they have to know the full objective.

que precisan saber o obxectivo completo.

If we build systems that know that they don’t know what the objective is,

Se construímos sistemas de IA conscientes de que ignoran o obxectivo,

then they start to exhibit these behaviors,

comezan a manifestar comportamentos

like asking permission before getting rid of all the oxygen in the atmosphere.

tales como pedir permiso antes de eliminar o osíxeno da atmosfera.

In all these senses, control over the AI system

En todos estes sentidos, controlar un sistema de IA

comes from the machine’s uncertainty about what the true objective is.

é posible porque a máquina non ten certeza do verdadeiro obxectivo.

And it’s when you build machines that believe with certainty

Porque cando constrúes máquinas que cren que teñen a certeza

that they have the objective,

de coñeceren o obxectivo,

that’s when you get this sort of psychopathic behavior.

é cando se atopan nelas comportamentos psicópatas.

And I think we see the same thing in humans.

E creo que se percibe o mesmo nos seres humanos.

What happens when general purpose AI hits the real economy?

Que ha pasar cando a IA de propósito xeral bata coa economía real?

How do things change? Can we adapt?

Como cambiarán as cousas? Poderemos adaptarnos?

This is a very old point.

Esta é unha cuestión moi antiga.

Amazingly, Aristotle actually has a passage where he says,

Aristóteles -quen contaba!- di nun dos seus escritos

look, if we had fully automated weaving machines

que de termos máquinas de tecer totalmente automatizadas

and plectrums that could pluck the lyre and produce music without any humans,

e plectros que puidesen tocar a lira e producir música sen mediación humana,

then we wouldn’t need any workers.

non cumpriría ter traballadores.

That idea, which I think it was Keynes

Esta idea, á que Keynes -penso-,

who called it technological unemployment in 1930,

lle chamou en 1930 «paro tecnolóxico»

is very obvious to people.

é bastante obvia para o gran público.

They think, yeah, of course, if the machine does the work,

A xente pensa: “abofé, se a máquina fai todo o traballo

then I'm going to be unemployed.

entón eu vou quedar no paro”.

You can think about the warehouses that companies are currently operating

Pensa nos almacéns das grandes empresas

for e-commerce, they are half automated.

de comercio electrónico, que están semiautomatizadas.

The way it works is that an old warehouse— where you’ve got tons of stuff piled up

Nun almacén clásico, hai moreas de cousas amontoadas por todas as partes,

all over the place and humans go and rummage around

seres humanos remexen nelas,

and then bring it back and send it off—

traen as mercadorías e envíanas.

there’s a robot who goes and gets the shelving unit

Agora hai un robot que vai e colle o andel

that contains the thing that you need,

onde está a mercadoría que se busca,

but the human has to pick the object out of the bin or off the shelf,

pero é o humano quen ten que sacar o obxecto do contedor ou do andel,

because that’s still too difficult.

porque isto segue sendo difícil de máis.

But, at the same time,

Pero, ao mesmo tempo,

would you make a robot that is accurate enough to be able to pick

sería posible crear un robot preciso abondo para recoller

pretty much any object within a very wide variety of objects that you can buy?

case calquera obxecto que se poida mercar?

That would, at a stroke, eliminate 3 or 4 million jobs?

Isto podería eliminar, dunha asentada, 3 ou 4 millóns de postos de traballo?

There's an interesting story that E.M. Forster wrote,

E.M. Foster escribiu un relato fascinante,

where everyone is entirely machine dependent.

no que os seres humanos dependen totalmente das máquinas.

The story is really about the fact that if you hand over

En realidade, o relato amosa que,

se lle deixamos ás máquinas o control da nosa sociedade,

the management of your civilization to machines,

you then lose the incentive to understand it yourself

perdemos o incentivo entendela por nós mesmos

or to teach the next generation how to understand it.

ou para ensinarlle a entendela á seguinte xeración.

You can see “WALL-E” actually as a modern version,

Poderiamos considerar “WALL-E”, como unha versión moderna

where everyone is enfeebled and infantilized by the machine,

en que todo o mundo está debilitado e infantilizado polas máquinas,

and that hasn’t been possible up to now.

algo que non fora posible ata o de agora.

We put a lot of our civilization into books,

Poñemos moito da nosa civilización nos libros,

but the books can’t run it for us.

pero eles non a van xestionar por nós.

And so we always have to teach the next generation.

Debemos seguir instruíndo á vindeira xeración.

If you work it out, it’s about a trillion person years of teaching and learning

Levamos arredor dun billón de anos-persoa de ensino e aprendizaxe

and an unbroken chain that goes back tens of thousands of generations.

e unha cadea continua que provén de decenas de miles de xeracións atrás.

What happens if that chain breaks?

Que pasa se a cadea rompe?

I think that’s something we have to understand as AI moves forward.

É algo sobre o que debemos reflexionar a medida que a IA avanza.

The actual date of arrival of general purpose AI—

A data de chegada da IA de propósito xeral.

you’re not going to be able to pinpoint, it isn’t a single day.

non se pode identificar, non vai ser un día concreto.

It’s also not the case that it’s all or nothing.

Tampouco vai ser algo de todo ou nada.

The impact is going to be increasing.

O seu impacto vai ir aumentando.

So with every advance in AI,

Con cada avance en IA,

it significantly expands the range of tasks.

amplíase moito o seu abano de tarefas.

So in that sense, I think most experts say by the end of the century,

Por iso, creo que a maioría dos expertos calculan que de aquí a finais de século,

we’re very, very likely to have general purpose AI.

con moita probabilidade contaremos con IA de propósito xeral.

The median is something around 2045.

A media das previsións anda polo 2045.

I'm a little more on the conservative side.

Eu son un pouco máis conservador.

I think the problem is harder than we think.

Han xurdir máis problemas dos que pensamos

I like what John McAfee, he was one of the founders of AI,

Gústame o que dixo John McAfee, un dos creadores da IA,

when he was asked this question, he said, somewhere between five and 500 years.

cando lle fixeron esa pregunta: “nalgunha data entre 5 e 500 anos,

And we're going to need, I think, several Einsteins to make it happen.

e creo que imos precisar varios Einstein para acadalo”.