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譯者: Lo Julia
00:04
I'd like to start with a true anecdote,
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我想以一件真實軼事
作為開頭
00:06
which is that my friends
have genuinely asked me
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是我朋友真誠地要求我
00:08
to stop sharing facts about wheat
to our group chat.
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停止分享關於小麥的真相
到我們的聊天群
00:13
I know, what’s wrong with them?
They must be mad.
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他們怎麼回事?
他們肯定瘋了
00:16
But to be fair to them,
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不過為他們說句公道話
00:18
they have been hearing
a lot lately about wheat,
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他們最近早已聽聞
關於小麥
00:21
wheat-related innovation,
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與小麥相關的創新
00:23
how it was funded by philanthropists,
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慈善家是如何將之
創建的
00:25
and how it might have saved
a billion lives.
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以及可能如何去拯救
十億人的生命
00:28
So I'd love to share
this story with you now
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所以現在我樂於分享
這個故事給你們
00:31
as I’m here to talk about the huge
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同時我在此談論這龐大
00:33
and I think still largely
hidden potential of philanthropy
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以及依舊認為主要是
在慈善有著隱藏潛力
00:36
to completely transform our world.
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去完全地徹底改善
我們的世界。
00:40
After World War II,
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二戰結束後
00:41
the global population shot up
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全球人口快速增加
00:43
and it really wasn't clear how
we were going to grow enough food
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而的確不清楚我們會如何
去種植足夠的食物
00:46
to feed everybody.
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來餵養每個人。
00:47
In lots of places, the soil
was completely depleted of nutrients,
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在許多地方,土壤的養分
已全然耗盡
00:51
lots of the crops that did grow
were destroyed by disease
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許多成熟的作物遭疾病
破壞
00:54
and the situation got really bad.
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並且情況變得很糟糕。
00:56
By the 1960s, scientists were saying
mass famine is inevitable.
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1960年代,科學家們據稱
大飢荒是不可避免的。
01:01
Millions of people might die.
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百萬人民可能死亡。
01:03
However, what they failed
to fully take into account
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然而他們未能考慮周全
01:07
was the fact that decades before this,
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是此真相是在幾十年前
01:09
philanthropists had already
started funding research
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慈善家已著手資助研究
01:13
into how we could improve crop yields
in really difficult conditions.
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我們如何能在極度艱困
條件下改善作物的產量
01:16
The team was led by this man,
Norman Borlaug,
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這支團隊由此男性帶領
諾曼·布勞格,
01:18
and he worked in collaboration
with the Mexican government.
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並且他與墨西哥政府
合作
01:21
They made some really
incredible innovations.
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他們建構出一些非常
厲害的革新
01:24
So first they made the wheat grains
about three times bigger,
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那首先他們將小麥穀物
變身約三倍大
01:27
which was amazing
because they were massive.
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這令人讚嘆
因為它們規模驚人
01:29
It wasn't perfect, however,
because they kind of fell over.
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然而它不完美
因為它們會有些微傾塌
01:32
They then made the stems of the wheat
much shorter and stronger,
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他們將小麥的莖稈變得
更短又更強壯
01:35
which was ideal because they were
massive and didn't fall over.
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這是理想狀態因為它們
規模驚人而且不會傾塌
01:38
Great situation to be in.
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最佳狀態應是如此
01:39
So after much of what I now call
wheat-related YMCA,
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因此後現在有許多稱為
小麥相關的基督青年會
01:43
the team were able
to develop really robust,
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此團隊曾能夠發展出
非常健全
01:47
disease-resistant and incredibly
high-yield crops.
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具抗病性以及極高產
穀物
01:51
This new way of doing things
spread throughout the entire world
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這種新的從事方法
擴展至全世界
01:54
and the results were quite
literally miraculous.
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並且成果毫不誇張
地神奇
01:58
Entire countries came back
from the brink of famine.
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所有國家都從飢荒邊緣
恢復過來
02:01
Global cereal production as a whole
tripled in just 50 years.
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全球穀物產量總體上
僅在五十年內變三倍多
02:06
And our friend Norman was awarded
the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970.
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而我們朋友諾曼在1970年
得到諾貝爾和平獎
02:12
I really love this story.
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我非常喜歡這則故事
02:14
Not because it was the foolproof
solution to global hunger,
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並非因它解決全球飢餓
是一項萬無一失的方法
02:17
because of course it wasn’t,
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而根本就不是如此
02:18
and actually it was fraught
with problems of its own,
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而實際上本身就問題
重重
02:21
but because it demonstrates
two really important ideas
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然而由於其顯示了
兩種很重要的概念
02:24
that I think we're neglecting to apply
to improving the world today.
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是我覺得現今我們正
疏忽以其來改善全世界
02:29
One, it's pretty simple.
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第一種很簡單
02:31
Huge problems can be solved
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重大的問題能被解決
02:34
with the right amount
of investment and cooperation.
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用以適量的投資與合作
02:37
The second
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第二種
02:38
is that philanthropy at its best
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在於慈善在積極的
面向上
02:41
is one of the most
transformative tools we have
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是為我們所擁有最為
顛覆性的工具之一
02:43
to bring about that improvement.
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去促成這種改善
02:45
Now, I say at its best,
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那麼我會說是積極面
02:47
because I imagine you all know
about philanthropy at its worst.
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因為我猜想你們了解
慈善最糟糕的時候
02:51
At its worst, it can be
little more than a tool
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在最糟糕的時候它
只不過是一種工具
02:53
in the hands of the ultra wealthy
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為超富有者掌控
02:55
to manage their own status
or their own power.
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來管理他們自身地位
或是自身權力
02:57
It can have very little regard
for what's actually needed
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它可以漠視實際所需
03:00
or what actually works.
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或實際所從事的事物
03:03
Philanthropy at its best, however,
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然而慈善在積極層面
03:05
is still one of the most
powerful tools we have,
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仍舊是我們所擁有
最強大的工具之一
03:08
especially when it can step in
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尤其當它能涉足
03:10
and do the things
that governments can't do
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且執行政府無法執行的
03:12
and markets won't do.
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以及市場將未從事的
項目
03:13
And this is exactly what happened
with Norman and the Green Revolution.
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這在諾曼與綠色革命間
確實曾發生過的事情
03:17
Philanthropic funding
to the tune of 100,000 dollars a year
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一年多達十萬元
03:20
from the Rockefeller
Foundation in the '40s
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來自於四十年代的
洛克菲勒基金會
03:23
in combination with government support,
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結合政府支助
的慈善資助,
03:25
was what we needed
to get the project going.
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是我們需要藉此讓
計畫開始進行
03:28
If we'd had to wait for governments
to take on all of that research
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要是我們得需等待政府
承擔所有研究
03:31
and all of the funding,
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還有一切資助
03:33
bearing in mind that governments
tend to move slowly
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考慮到政府偏於行動緩慢
03:35
and bearing in mind
that extremely poor governments
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以及考慮到極貧弱政府
03:37
don't tend to have an extremely
large amount of money,
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不易擁有一筆巨額資金
03:40
we might have been waiting
for a really long time.
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我們也許就已等了好長
一段時間了
03:43
Similarly, if we'd had to wait
for private sector investors
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同樣地,要是我們得需
等待私人部門投資人
03:46
to take on all that risk themselves,
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自己去承擔所有風險
03:48
bearing in mind they probably thought
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考慮到他們可能認為
03:49
they had more profitable
things to be doing,
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他們有更賺錢的事情
要做
03:52
we also might have been
waiting a really long time.
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我們也可能已等了
好長一段時間了
03:54
Philanthropy was the thing
that could come in,
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慈善曾是一種
可以介入的事情
03:56
speed things up and maybe
save millions of lives.
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能將事情加快進行並且
可能會拯救上百萬生命
04:00
And the final incredible fact
about this story
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而最後關於這則故事
有個難以置信的真相
04:02
is I had a really, really hard time
choosing to tell it to you today,
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我實在是很難選擇在
今日告訴你們這則故事
04:06
because history is full of these hidden
philanthropic success stories.
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因為歷史充滿了這些
隱藏的慈善成功故事
04:09
For example,
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舉例
04:11
I could have equally told you
about the pioneering suffragette
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我同樣能告訴你們有關
先鋒派婦女參政運動者
04:14
and philanthropist Katharine McCormick,
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以及慈善家
凱瑟琳·麥科密克
04:15
who single-handedly funded the development
of the contraceptive pill.
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其憑一己之力為發展
避孕藥提供資金
04:19
I could have told you about how
80 million Americans came together
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我能夠告訴你們八千萬
美國人是如何團結起來
04:23
to fund the eradication of polio,
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為根除小兒麻痺症
提供資金
04:25
or about how just two foundations
funded conferences
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或就兩家基金會是怎麼
為此會談提供資金
04:28
at the end of the Cold War
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於冷戰結束之際
04:30
that dramatically reduced
the nuclear stockpile.
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此會談戲劇般地減低
核儲存
04:32
So bearing in mind
what we can take from all of this
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因此考慮到我們能
在這所有當中能獲得
04:36
are simple ideas:
huge problems can be solved,
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是諸簡單的概念:
重大的問題可以解決
04:39
philanthropy can be transformative.
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慈善可具有顛覆性的
04:41
I'd like to invite all of you here today
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我想在今天邀請你們
在座的各位
04:44
to go through a thought
experiment with me.
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跟我練習一場思想實驗
04:46
And as I say, it's my favorite
type of experiment
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而如我所說的它是我
最喜歡的實驗類型
04:48
because it's just really cheap to fund.
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因為它所付出的資金
真的很低廉
04:51
OK, thought experiment is this.
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好的
思想實驗就是這個
04:54
We're all philanthropists.
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我們都是慈善家
04:55
We want to bring about
transformative change,
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我們想要創造顛覆性
的改變
04:58
maybe even on the scale
of the Green Revolution.
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或甚至是綠色革命的
規模
05:01
To do this,
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為了完成這個目標
05:02
we want to start by tackling
some of our largest and most solvable
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我們想要藉由處理我們
最重大以及最能解決的
05:06
and our most neglected
problems of all time.
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和最為忽略的一些長期
以來的問題來著手
05:09
And I want you to, if you can,
imagine something really crazy.
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而我想要你們,假如你們
能想像某件事情很瘋狂
05:14
We actually have a massive
pile of cash to do this with.
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我們實際上擁有一筆
巨額現金來做這件事
05:18
I know.
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我了解
05:20
Now, you might be thinking
the eternal question,
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那你們也許思考著
這長遠的問題
05:23
where are we going to get
a massive pile of cash?
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我們能得到一筆巨額
的現金嗎?
05:25
And I agree, you know, you rarely
find them lying around anymore, sadly.
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很遺憾地,我同意你們
很少發現到它們隨處可見
05:29
But I do have a proposal.
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然而我有一項計畫
05:32
The one percent.
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這百分之一
05:34
If everyone in the global
top one percent of earners
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假如在全球前百分之一
收入者中的每一位
05:37
gave away just 10 percent of their income,
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只要捐贈出其收入的
百分之十
05:41
or if they are particularly wealthy
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抑或假如他們
非常富有的話
05:43
and this would be more money,
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那就有更多的錢
05:45
gave away just 2.5 percent
of their net worth,
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只要從其淨值贈出
百分之二點五
05:48
we would have an additional
3.5 trillion dollars to improve the world.
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我就有額外的3.5兆元
能改善全世界
05:54
Now, this is a good number.
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好的
這是一個優秀的數量
05:56
It's a decent amount of money, I agree.
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這是一筆相當程度的金額
我同意
05:59
OK, this is 3.5 trillion
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是的 這裡是3.5兆
06:00
over and above the one trillion
that already goes to charity.
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其多過已獻給慈善機構
的一兆
06:04
And -- this is a surprising bit --
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並且-這有點令人訝異-
06:06
if you're earning over
60,000 dollars a year after tax,
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假如你的年收入
稅後超過六萬元
06:11
assuming you're a single person
bringing that home after tax,
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假定你是位拿這稅後
實際收入的單身人士
06:14
you are in the global one percent.
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你就是那全球百分之一
06:17
This is not to say that everyone
bringing home 60K
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這並不是說每位有
實際收入六萬
06:19
can afford to give away 10 percent
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才能捐得出百分之十
06:21
because I absolutely see
that is not the case.
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因為我真的了解
情況並非如此
06:24
However, it is to say that global
inequality is really, really extreme.
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不過,換句話說
全球不平等真的很極端
06:31
OK, and as a final note, yes,
this is just a made-up thought experiment,
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好,最後的一點,沒錯
這就是虛構的思想實驗
06:35
but I think it can shine a real light
on what we can do in monetary terms,
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不過我認為此提供真正
曙光在金錢方面能做的
06:39
what it would take to solve some
of our real problems in the real world.
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在解決真實世界中一些
實際問題付出的努力上
06:43
So everything I'm about to share
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因此我所要分享的一切
06:45
is the result of extremely real research
by experts at places like the World Bank,
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是由這些地方的專家提出
極為真實的研究結果
06:50
the United Nations
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如世界銀行,聯合國
06:51
and my co-founder
Simran Dhaliwal is here tonight,
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以及今晚在此的共同
創辦人西姆蘭達利瓦爾
06:54
our own much smaller non-profit,
Longview Philanthropy.
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我們自己更小眾非營利
組織,長遠慈善
06:59
So,
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好的
07:00
what could we do with one year
of the one percent giving 10 percent?
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年收入前百分之一捐出
其百分之十能做什麼?
07:05
Let's find out.
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讓我們找找看吧
07:07
For 260 billion dollars,
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針對兩百六十億元
07:10
we could ensure that nobody lives below
the extreme poverty line for the year.
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我們能確保一年中沒人
生活在低於極貧窮線
07:16
That line is incredibly low.
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這條線基準非常低
07:18
It's 2.15 dollars a day
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一天兩點一五元
07:20
and one in 12 people
currently live below that line.
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而且目前每十二人
有一位是低於此線生活
07:23
One solution to this is really
simple and really effective.
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一種解決此方式是非常
簡單而且很有效率
07:27
In fact, it's so simple,
people are sometimes confused by it.
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事實上,它真的很簡單
人們有時為之困惑
07:31
Why don't we give money directly
to the poorest people in the world?
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我們何不直接把錢給
全球最貧困的人民?
07:37
There's a very conveniently named
organization that does this
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這裡有個命名相當合宜
的機構在從事這活動
07:40
called GiveDirectly.
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名為馬上捐
07:42
Over 300 studies have been done
on this type of cash transfer,
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在此類現金轉移已
進行了有三百多項研究
07:45
and the studies show that this works.
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而且此諸多研究顯示
這是可行的
07:47
And it works because fundamentally
people know what they need,
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而可行是因為民眾了解
其所需
07:51
particularly when they're extremely poor.
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尤其當他們極度貧窮時
07:53
Like Bahati, for example.
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舉例 如巴哈蒂
07:55
With her transfer, she bought
a tank to store rainwater,
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透過她的轉移,她購入
一台水箱來儲存雨水
07:58
livestock and her first mattress.
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還有家禽以及首個
屬於她的床墊
08:01
And the fact that people
know what they need
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而民眾知道他們的所需
的真相也是一項原因
08:03
is also the reason that cash
transfers often do more
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乃是現金轉移通常
更做為
08:06
to boost education than building schools.
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推動教育多於建設學校
08:09
They often do more to support
businesses than business training
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他們通常更做為支持企業
多過於企業培訓
08:12
and they often do more
to improve nutrition
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以及更多做為改善營養
08:14
than all kinds of food programs.
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甚於各種糧食企劃
08:16
People don't need to be "taught to fish."
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人們不需要被”教會釣魚”
08:18
We need to end that meme now.
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我們目前必結束此迷因
08:20
People are capable
of fishing and investing
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人們會釣魚和投資
08:23
and a whole lot else
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還會超多其他的事情
08:24
once they're not trapped
in completely debilitating poverty.
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一旦他們未受困於十分
令人孱弱的貧瘠
08:27
(Applause)
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4338
(鼓掌)
08:33
For 300 billion dollars
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就三千億元而言
08:34
we could massively reduce the risk
of the next pandemic.
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3587
我們能大幅降低下一波
的流行疾病
08:38
And honestly, what concerns me
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1585
而老實說
令我擔憂的是
08:40
is that the next one
is going to be even worse.
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下一波的流行疾病
將會更加惡劣
08:42
And the reason is this.
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而原因就在於此
08:43
It's currently possible
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而近期有可能發生
08:45
for somebody with the right type
of experience in bioengineering
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是擁有合法生物工程學
經驗類型的某一位
08:48
to go on the internet,
to order the DNA necessary
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2962
會上網下訂一種
去氧核醣核酸
08:51
to reconstruct the smallpox virus --
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2169
其對重建天花病毒
必不可少的-
08:54
and as you'll know,
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而將如你們所知
08:55
smallpox is a horrendous disease
that we've eradicated --
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天花是一種我們已根絕
的可怕疾病-
08:57
to reconstruct that virus
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去重建此病毒
08:59
and to release it into the world.
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然後將之釋放至全球
09:01
This is not some wild
conjecture or some theory.
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這並不是一些胡亂臆測
或是某些理論
09:04
This is what scientists
are warning us about
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這是科學家們所警告
著我們的
09:06
and what studies on similar viruses
are showing could be possible now.
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而目前類似病毒的研究
上正顯示當下的可能性
09:11
We are not prepared for this.
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我們卻未為此作準備
09:13
We're not even prepared
for the next natural pandemic.
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2836
我們甚至未為下一波
非人為流行疾病作準備
09:16
Here are some things we could do.
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有些事項是我們能做的
09:17
First, we could set up a screening program
to track sewage and wastewater
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4004
首先,可建立監控程式
來追蹤汙水及廢水系統
09:21
for the early signs
of the next potential pandemic.
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針對下一波潛在流行病
的諸多初期徵兆
09:24
Then we could upgrade
existing lab facilities worldwide
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之後我們可將全球現有的
實驗室設備升級
09:28
to ensure that anyone
who needs a new vaccine
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2127
以確保需要新疫苗的每位
09:30
can get it within six months.
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1794
能在六個月內取得之
09:32
Then we stockpile enough
super effective super PPE
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3295
而後我們儲備足夠高效能
高端的個人防護裝備
09:35
to cover every single essential
worker in the world,
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2460
來防護世界各地所有
不可或缺的勞工們
09:38
not just people in rich countries.
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不僅是富有國家的人民
09:40
And we can also invest into research,
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2461
而我們也能去投資研究
09:42
into germicidal light
and other technologies
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2627
投資殺菌燈以及
其他技術
09:45
that could literally
kill viruses in the air
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2169
其確實可將空氣中的
病毒殺死
09:47
before we breathe them in.
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1627
在我們吸入空氣之前
09:49
It's really early days,
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這的確是初期階段
09:50
but a breakthrough here could mean
the end of airborne disease.
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3044
然而此處的突破能意味
著空氣傳播疾病的結束
09:54
For 840 billion dollars
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594632
2419
就八千四百億元而論
09:57
we can double what we spend
on clean energy research and development
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3712
我們將於再生能源的
研究以及開發和
10:00
and really speed up progress
to end climate change.
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3211
確實加快完結氣候變遷
的進程可增加一倍費用
10:04
Clean energy R and D
has been so effective so far.
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3170
再生能源R與D目前
為止已相當之效率
10:07
Over the last 10 years,
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1418
在過去的十年裡
10:08
the price of wind energy
is down by 50 percent
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2878
風力能的價格下跌
百分之五十
10:11
and the price of solar energy
is down by an incredible 90 percent.
217
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4004
而且太陽能價格下跌
了驚人的百分之九十
10:16
One thing we can do now is build on this
and start a clean energy sprint.
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616445
3963
能做的一件事是以此
開創一項再生能源衝刺
10:20
So yes, wind and yes, solar,
219
620408
1668
所以沒錯,風和太陽
10:22
but also nuclear, also geothermal.
220
622118
2210
還有核能,還有地熱
10:24
Also better ways of storing
the energy we do create
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624328
2753
而且我們能創造更好
保存能源的方法
10:27
and better ways of removing
existing carbon from the air,
222
627123
2753
以及更佳使空氣中存有
的碳消除的方法
10:29
particularly right at the point
where it's emitted.
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2461
尤其正是其被釋放的
關鍵所在
10:33
For now, very minuscule-looking,
mere two billion dollars,
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633379
4171
目前,看起來非常微少
僅僅是兩百萬元
10:37
an investment here, an endowment here,
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637592
2210
有一項投資
有一道資助
10:39
could permanently quadruple
philanthropic spending
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639844
2878
能永續地將慈善費用
增加四倍
10:42
to reduce nuclear risk.
227
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1585
來降低核能風險
10:44
That is less per year
than what we spend on novelty socks.
228
644348
3379
那是比每年花在趣味襪
上的費用還少
10:47
(Laughter)
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647768
3671
(笑聲)
10:51
Nuclear risk is almost
the highest it's ever been.
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651731
2752
核能風險有史以來
幾乎都是最高的
10:55
Right now, thousands of warheads,
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2169
目前有上千個核彈
10:57
each capable of killing hundreds
of thousands of people,
232
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3045
每一顆能夠殺死
數十萬個人類
11:00
are set on high alert.
233
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1710
且處於高警訊狀態
11:02
We know that the early warning systems
that should alert us to incoming attacks
234
662158
3712
我們明白該警告我們
即將來臨的攻擊之早期
11:05
have a massive history of false alarms,
235
665870
1918
警示系統記載大規模
警告誤報的歷史
11:07
which creates a huge risk
of an accidental nuclear strike.
236
667788
3337
其創造出一齣意外的
核能打擊的巨大風險
11:11
And we know in the event
a potential strike is incoming,
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671167
3211
而我們了解在事件中於
未來會有一項潛在打擊
11:14
the US president would have
just 15 minutes to decide how to respond.
238
674420
4004
美國總統決定如何回應
僅花十五分鐘
11:18
And we know that the US has actually
really good early warning systems,
239
678466
3336
我們明白美國實際的確
有良好的早期警示系統
11:21
comparatively speaking.
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1627
其相較之下。
11:23
This situation is absolutely insane.
241
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2378
這種情況極其荒謬
11:26
Even if you think that living in a world
without nukes is not feasible
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686557
3295
即便你認為生活在沒有
核武器的世界裡不合理
11:29
or not even desirable,
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689894
1501
或甚不值得嚮往
11:31
there are safer ways to live
in a world with nukes than this.
244
691437
3003
比起這,還有更安全的
方式活在有核武的世界
11:34
And because this is such a neglected area,
245
694815
2545
由於這樣一塊疏漏的
範圍
11:37
even a tiny amount of philanthropic
funding would go a really long way
246
697360
3503
甚至一小筆慈善資助
能真正發揮很大作用
11:40
to getting the better policies we need.
247
700863
1960
在於獲得我們所需的
良好政策
11:43
(Applause)
248
703366
2419
(鼓掌)
11:45
Thank you.
249
705826
1168
謝謝
11:48
For one billion dollars
250
708663
2335
對於十億元
11:50
we could increase tenfold
the philanthropic money
251
710998
2836
我們能將慈善資金
擴增十倍
11:53
going towards AI safety.
252
713876
1627
用於支付人工智慧安全
11:56
Bit of light relief
because you're about to need it,
253
716045
2461
輕鬆一點
因為你們會需要的
11:58
that's less per year than
what we spend on toys for pets.
254
718506
3044
這比我們每年花在
寵物玩具上還要少
12:01
This little one here is actually my dog
255
721550
2211
在此這小東西其實
是我的狗
12:03
and I think I'm quite a decent
chunk of that one billion, if I'm honest.
256
723761
3420
要是老實說,我認為我
是佔那十億相當大一塊
12:07
(Laughter)
257
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1168
(笑聲)
12:08
So, as you know,
258
728766
1418
因此如你們所了解的
12:10
top AI labs around the world are currently
deliberately trying to create AI systems
259
730184
4546
全球頂尖人工智慧實驗室
近期有意欲創人工智慧系統
12:14
that are smarter than humans
at everything humans do
260
734730
2461
其比在人為方面所做出
的一切都更為聰明
12:17
and then some and then some,
because it won't stop there.
261
737233
2836
甚至更多還更多
因為這不會停止
12:20
They're funded by tech money
from the likes of Google and Microsoft,
262
740111
3378
它們由諸如谷歌及微軟
提供技術支出所創立的
12:23
and most AI researchers think
that in the coming years or decades,
263
743531
3128
而多數人工智慧研發者
認為會在未來幾十年後
12:26
they're going to succeed.
264
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1293
它們即將成功
12:28
What's going to happen then?
265
748661
1627
接著會發生什麼事?
12:30
We don't know.
266
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1251
我們一無所知
12:31
Which is terrifying
267
751622
1543
哪個是可怕的
12:33
because even with the relatively
simple systems we have today,
268
753207
3003
因為甚至隨著今日我們
所使用相當簡易的系統
12:36
like ChatGPT,
269
756252
1251
像是聊天機器人程式
12:37
companies didn't know how they were
going to behave in the real world
270
757503
3253
公司才了解其在現實
世界中會如何運作
12:40
until they've released them publicly
onto the internet.
271
760756
2586
直到他們已將其公開
發布到網路上
12:43
And yes, they've done
some brilliantly helpful things,
272
763342
2544
而沒錯,它們已經完成
一些卓著有益的事情
12:45
but they've also done some
much less brilliantly helpful things
273
765886
2962
但是也製造出一些很多
少於卓著有益的事情
12:48
like threaten to kill people,
274
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1460
像是會有殺害人的危險
12:50
threaten to hack into people's emails
and blackmail them.
275
770308
2711
會有駭入人類郵件
並且敲詐他們的危險
12:53
Now, fortunately, ChatGPT
is not an existential risk.
276
773185
3337
幸運的是,聊天機器人
並不是一項生存危機
12:56
But as these systems rapidly become
more and more powerful,
277
776856
3503
然而當這些系統迅速
變得越來越有力量時
13:00
this way of doing things
is going to rapidly become
278
780359
2419
進行事物的方式則
會迅速變得
13:02
more and more deeply unsafe.
279
782820
2002
越來越極其不安全
13:05
We need to put pressure
on these companies to slow down,
280
785197
3003
我們必須催使這些企業
慢下腳步
13:08
and when the time is right,
to maybe even stop.
281
788242
2878
而當時機成熟時
或許甚至得停止
13:12
OK.
282
792330
1167
好的
13:13
So we have quite a lot of our budget left.
283
793497
2044
因此我們還有相當充足
的預算
13:15
Let’s speed things up
and see what we can do
284
795541
2127
讓我們加快事情進展
也看看我們能做什麼
13:17
not just to survive this century,
but to thrive in it.
285
797710
2961
不僅要拯救這世紀
也要在此繁榮茁壯
13:21
We could fund a 13-year plan
286
801547
1710
我們可以資助
一項13年計畫
13:23
to ensure that everybody
has access to clean water
287
803299
2335
確保每人能永久地
使用乾淨的水
13:25
and sanitation once and for all.
288
805676
1877
以及公共衛生
13:28
We could provide
the additional funding needed
289
808471
2168
我們能提供額外的
資金需求
13:30
to make sure that hunger and malnutrition
are gone within a decade.
290
810639
3254
確保在一年內飢餓與
營養不良消失不見
13:34
We could give women control
over their reproductive health
291
814268
3128
我們可為女性控管
其生殖健康
13:37
and fund free contraceptive --
292
817396
1585
以及資助免費避孕劑
13:39
(Applause)
293
819023
1001
(鼓掌)
13:40
Thank you.
294
820066
1126
謝謝
13:41
(Applause)
295
821233
2128
(鼓掌)
13:43
Free contraceptive, maternal
and newborn care
296
823402
3128
免費避孕劑,孕婦及
新生兒照護
13:46
for every woman who needs it
for at least five years.
297
826572
2836
至少有五年的時間提供
給每一位有需求的女性
13:50
We could fund the plan to end
factory farming entirely by 2050.
298
830076
3878
可資助本計畫於2050
前全面終止工廠化養殖
13:54
We could massively suppress
or even eradicate
299
834663
2378
我們能大規模禁止
或甚至杜絕
13:57
the 20 neglected tropical diseases,
300
837041
2210
這20個忽視的熱帶疾病
13:59
which tend to affect
the poorest billion in the world
301
839251
2503
其往往影響這世界中
最貧困的十億人口
14:01
and tend to be incredibly
cheap and easy to treat.
302
841796
2335
以及非常容易受到
廉價和隨意的治療
14:04
And we could massively suppress or even
eradicate malaria, tuberculosis and HIV.
303
844173
5255
我們能大幅地禁止或甚
至根絕瘧疾結核病愛滋
14:10
(Applause)
304
850388
1501
(鼓掌)
14:11
Thank you.
305
851889
1251
謝謝
14:13
(Applause)
306
853140
3087
(鼓掌)
14:16
We're not doomed.
307
856852
1335
我們並沒有就此絕望
14:18
We don't need to resign
ourselves or our loved ones
308
858687
3170
我們無須將自己
或是我們的親人
14:21
or our fellow humans or future generations
309
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2545
或是我們的人類同胞
或我們將來世世代代
14:24
to unnecessary and avoidable suffering,
310
864443
2920
任受於不需要及可避免
的苦難之中
14:27
because we really can solve
our biggest problems.
311
867363
3086
因為我們真的可以解決
我們最大的難題
14:31
And we don't need to throw away
one of the most powerful tools
312
871033
2961
而我們無須拋棄其中
最強大的工具
14:34
we have to solve them,
313
874036
1418
我們必須要解決它們
14:35
because philanthropy really
can be transformative.
314
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因為慈善的確能有
改革作用的
14:39
And I think the thing to remember
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而我認為要牢記的事情
14:40
is that everything
I've gone through today,
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則是今天我所歷經的
一切
14:42
it's not a complete list
of the world's problems.
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並不是全球問題的
完整清單
14:45
It is one option for what we could do
with one year's worth of funding
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它是我們可用一年的
資金中的百分之一就能
14:49
from the one percent
giving just 10 percent.
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提供百分之十之價值
所進行的一個選項
14:54
Imagine what we could do in year two.
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想像我們在第二年
可以做些什麼
14:56
Thank you.
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謝謝
14:57
(Applause and cheers)
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(鼓掌和歡呼)
15:07
Anna Verghese: Alright.
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安娜·維蓋斯:好的
15:08
There is so much to get excited about.
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還有很多感到興奮的事
15:10
So you did reference
the people earning 60K,
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因此你們確實參考收入
六萬元的人
15:14
maybe it's not as realistic
to imagine committing 10 percent,
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要設想投入百分之十
也許是不切實際
15:17
but I love to turn a thought experiment
or an idea into actions.
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但我喜歡換為思想實驗
或是想法化為行動
15:20
So how do we get even close
to that 3.1 trillion number?
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因此我們該如何達到
這3.1兆數目?
15:24
What do you think we need to do?
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你們覺得我們需要
做些什麼?
15:25
Natalie Cargill: First of all,
to reiterate that, it's not practical,
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娜塔莉嘉吉:首先
得重申之,這不切實際
15:29
and there shouldn't be an exercise in,
you know, making people feel guilty
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且應該沒有一種執行作為
會形成人們有罪惡感
15:32
or that they should do things
they can't afford.
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或是他們應當進行
其無法擔任的事情
15:34
I think two things really help
in terms of increasing donations.
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我認為對於增加捐款
有兩件事的確有幫助
15:37
One is just information
on global inequality.
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其一就是全球不平等的
訊息
15:40
I think people think of the one percent
in terms of rich countries
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我認為就富裕國家來說
人們考量到此百分之一
15:43
and just being aware that what’s not
extravagantly wealthy in rich countries
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並恰好意識到富裕國家
並無整體過多奢華富有
15:47
is actually very wealthy in global terms.
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其以全球情況來看
實際上是非常富足的
15:50
And I think the second thing is having
options and having information.
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而我認為其二則為
持有選擇以及訊息
15:53
I think a lot of people, most people
are incredibly generous
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我認為很多人大多數人
都非常慷慨
15:56
and do want to improve the world,
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而且想要改變這世界
15:57
but it's not easy to navigate
all the different options.
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然而要掌握所有不同
的選擇是困難的
16:00
And so one thing we try and do
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因此有個我們
努力並執行的事
16:01
is just share this information
as widely as we can.
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就是只要我們盡能夠
廣泛地分享此訊息
16:04
AV: So talk about information.
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AV: 那來談談訊息
16:05
You mentioned GiveDirectly
as a great organization.
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你們提到像是馬上捐
這一大型組織
16:08
They're an Audacious grantee
that we gave money to
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他們是我們給予金錢的
大膽受贈者
16:10
during the COVID pandemic
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在冠狀病毒流行病期間
16:12
and highly endorse
sending your money that way.
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而且其高度認同你們的
金錢交付方式
16:15
Are there any other ideas,
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還有任何其他的想法
16:16
organizations that you have researched
that people can get access to?
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以及人們能夠方便接觸
你們已調查好的組織?
16:20
NC: Yes.
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NC:是的
16:21
Seconding GiveDirectly is amazing.
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其次馬上捐這組織很棒
16:24
I think for people giving,
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我想到捐助者們,
16:25
considering that something of a benchmark
can be really helpful.
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考慮到某種基準點能夠
真正具有幫助
16:28
Another organization I'd really recommend
people check out is called GiveWell.
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我很想推薦大家去了解
另一名為行善的組織
16:32
So they're not a charity themselves.
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那麼他們本身不是慈善
機構
16:34
They evaluate all kinds
of global health interventions
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他們對所有孩童的全球
健康干預活動做出評估
16:37
to see which ones
are kind of the best recipients,
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以確保哪幾位才是
最適合的收受人
16:40
if you're interested in global
health and development.
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假如你們對全球健康
及發展感興趣的話
16:43
Also, if you go to longview.org/pledge,
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並且,假如你們前往
longview.org/pledge網站
16:46
you can see all of the research
that we we put together for this talk
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可看見我們為這次演講
放上全部的研究
16:49
and for each area we break down
where we've got the estimate from
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針對我們分析每一領域
我們有估算數值的來源
16:52
and where you can donate
if you're interested.
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以及假如你們有興趣
有可以捐助的地點
16:55
AV: Wonderful, thank you Natalie.
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AV:太棒了 謝謝
娜塔莉
16:56
NC: Thank you all so much.
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NC:非常謝謝
16:58
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
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