How to Fix Broken Supply Chains | Dustin Burke | TED

Transcriber:

翻译人员: C Cheng 校对人员: Helen Chang

It was a strange feeling, walking into the local supermarket,

走进当地的一家超市， 却发现货架空空荡荡，

only to find empty shelves,

这是种很奇怪的感受。

and, most notably, no toilet paper.

最惹眼的是，竟然没有厕纸。

We didn't have raw-material shortages or manufacturing defects,

当时并没有原料短缺 或生产减产的问题，

and we didn't discover new uses for toilet paper.

我们也没有为厕纸找到新用途。

It was panic buying by everyday people.

这一现象是由普通大众的 恐慌消费造成的。

Supply chains just couldn't keep up.

供应链跟不上消费速度。

And before we knew it, the rumored shortage became a real one.

还没等我们意识到， 传说中的短缺已经变成了现实。

You remember that, don't you?

你们都还记得这个，对吧？

Well, maybe not, because I'm not talking about COVID-19.

也许不记得了， 因为我说的不是新冠疫情，

I'm talking about the great toilet paper shortage of 1973.

而是 1973 年发生的厕纸荒。

And it wasn't caused by a pandemic,

出现厕纸短缺， 并不是因为疾病大流行，

but by a joke told by Johnny Carson.

而是因为约翰尼·卡森的一句玩笑。

But today's supply-chain challenges are no joke.

但是供应链目前所遇到的 种种挑战并不是笑话。

Those problems are real,

这些问题虽然真实存在，

but they're problems that we've faced, and even solved, in the past.

但是都是些我们曾经遇到过， 甚至过去已经解决了的问题。

A supply chain is the long and often complicated journey

供应链通常是一个漫长、复杂的过程，

that any item takes before it winds up in your home.

任何物品在进入你家前 都要经历这个过程。

Raw materials are mined or grown

原材料要经过开采或种植，

and sold to various suppliers.

然后卖给各个供应商。

Those suppliers sell them to manufacturers,

供应商再将原材料卖给制造商，

who transform those raw materials into finished goods.

制造商将这些原材料转化为成品。

And those finished goods are moved around the world

经销商和运营商 把这些成品运往世界各地，

by distributors and carriers,

who, in turn, sell them to retailers,

转卖给各地的零售商。

who sell those to consumers as a final step.

最后，零售商将成品卖给消费者。

Many supply chains are simple,

有许多比较简单的供应链都，

like when you buy strawberries at a local farmers market.

比如，你在本地的农贸市场购买草莓。

But some are almost infinitely complex.

但是有一些供应链则极其复杂。

In my 14 years working with companies on improving their supply chains,

14 年里，我曾与不同公司合作， 帮助他们改善供应链，

I've seen many disruptions, from natural disasters to pandemics

我见到过多种供应中断的问题， 包括自然灾害，全球疫情，

and geopolitical instability.

地区政治动荡，等等。

And every time, the media talks about how, from this point,

每当问题出现时， 媒体就会开始谈论，

companies can and will make their supply chains more resilient,

从此刻起，公司该如何 提高供应链的适应力，

and the common prescriptions include diversifying risk,

常见的解决方法有：分散风险，

better forecasting the future

更准确地预测未来，

and building buffers, like stockpiles of inventory

以及建设缓冲区， 比如储存更多的货物，

or more manufacturing equipment.

或者储备更多的制造设配。

And this is good advice.

这是个不错的建议。

But the question I keep asking myself is:

但是，我一直在问自己这样一个问题：

“Why haven’t more companies taken this advice?”

“为什么很多公司 没有采取这个建议呢？”

The reason is that it doesn't stand up against competing priorities

原因在于，对于行业竞争而言， 供应链不具优先性，

and steep competition that occurs between the crises and shocks.

而在危机发生前后， 竞争都十分激烈。

So if we want to build more resilient supply chains

所以，如果我们想要建设 一个更具适应力的供应链

that can withstand the next great crisis,

以抵御下一个重大危机的话，

then we need to bring new ideas that can withstand competitive pressures.

就需要有一些能够抵抗 竞争性压力的新想法。

Let's talk about sharing risk,

让咱们来聊一聊分散风险、

radical transparency and automated recommendations.

高度透明，以及自动推荐。

These three ideas, if we take them together,

我们如果把这三个主意 结合在一起的话，

have the potential to help break the trade-off

就有可能解决 如何在适应力与效率之间

between resilience and efficiency.

进行取舍的问题。

An obvious solution to supply shortages is to build more buffers,

解决供应短缺的一个显而易见的 方案就是加强缓冲区建设，

so that if anything happens along the supply chain,

这样的话，即便供应链出现问题，

the next recipient isn't waiting empty-handed.

下一个经手人也不至于空手而归。

Retail stores can never perfectly predict what we'll buy,

零售店永远都无法精准 预测到我们会买些什么，

so they carry extra inventory.

所以他们总会有额外库存。

They might run out of a particular size or particular color,

某一尺寸或颜色的衣服可能会脱销，

but it’s unlikely that they’ll run out of an entire category, like jeans.

但是很少会出现整个商品类别， 比如牛仔裤，完全脱销的现象。

But we know, across industries,

但是我们知道，在各个行业中

companies carry less of that backup inventory than they used to.

公司现有的库存储备要比过去少。

And we have immense product variety.

产品种类则无限多样。

But much of what we buy

但是我们现在所购买的许多商品

is made in highly specialized or automated factories,

都是在高度专业化和自动化的 工厂里制造出来的，

and that makes it harder to repurpose that capacity when demand changes.

因此，按市场需求来调整 生产能力就变得更加困难。

That's why during COVID-19,

这就是为什么在新冠疫情期间，

those toilet-paper manufacturers had enough capacity,

厕纸制造商的生产力虽然足够强，

but they didn't have the right kind of capacity.

但是并不适应市场需求。

Commercial toilet paper is very different from what we consumers use at home.

商业厕纸与我们在家用的 厕纸非常不同。

They could have met demand,

制造商本来可以满足市场需求，

but it would have meant shoppers lugging home rolls that are nine inches wide,

但这就意味着 我们拖回家的厕纸有 23 厘米宽，

and clearly designed for cost, not for comfort.

很显然，这种设计旨在降低成本， 而不是提高舒适度。

(Laughter)

【笑声】

Streamlining supply chains

简化供应链是

is a big reason why we consumers have incredible choices at low prices.

消费者能以低廉的价格 购买到出色产品的重要原因。

And for many companies,

对于许多企业而言，

warehousing extra raw materials

储存过剩原材料，

or keeping idle equipment on the factory floor

或者在厂房里存放闲置设备，

is simply too expensive.

简直是太昂贵了，

Competition is steep as it is.

因为竞争十分激烈。

But buffers matter in a crisis.

但是，遇到危机时， 这些保护措施是非常重要的。

So how do we get similar benefits, but in a different way?

那么，我们该怎么做，才能 以不同的手段获得类似的好处呢？

We can share or pool risk.

我们可以分担或集中风险。

It's much like a well-established industry that we all know well --

这与我们所熟知的 一个成熟行业很相似，

insurance.

即保险业。

It's unlikely that you'll ever get into a major car accident,

我们遇到重大车祸的可能性并不高，

but if you do, it will be horribly expensive.

但是，一旦遇到这种情况， 损失就会非常昂贵。

That's why, for low-probability, high-impact events,

这就是为什么，对于可能性低， 但是影响力大的事件，

we share risk,

我们需要分担风险。

and in some instances, like car insurance,

而且，在某些情况下， 比如汽车保险，

we even require it.

我们甚至要求分担风险。

We could do the same thing in supply chains.

我们可以把同样的措施 运用在供应链上。

Industry players could team up to share the cost of keeping extra raw materials,

行业从业机构可以联合起来共同分摊

用于储存额外原材料、关键部件、 甚至重要设备所需成本，

key components or even machinery,

in exchange for an ongoing shared fee,

为此，各方定期交付部分费用，

and only to be used in times of a crisis.

储备物资只在危机出现时才可动用。

For example,

比如，

many countries stockpile important medicines,

许多国家都在囤积重要药品，

but relatively few keep their active ingredients, or "APIs."

但是只有少数国家会 存储原料药材，又称“APIs”。

Pharmaceutical companies could share the cost of storing extra APIs

各个制药厂可以在正常时期

分担储存额外 APIs 所需费用。

during normal times.

Then, in a crisis,

出现危机时，

drug manufacturers could dip into that supply

制药厂就可以取用这些储备供给，

to avoid running out of these important medicines.

以避免出现重要药品脱产的现象。

Again, it's just like insurance,

这就跟买保险一样，

except instead of pooling money, we're pooling a physical resource.

不过，这里集中的不是钱， 而是物质资源。

And importantly, it would be paid for, and so not seen as pure waste.

而且重要的是，这些资源是 有偿的，因此不应视其为浪费。

But in order to do this, we need to know who shares the same risks.

但是，为了实现这个计划，我们需要 知道都有谁在承担相同风险。

And in order to know that,

为了掌握这些情况

we need a radical improvement in supply-chain transparency.

我们需要彻底提高供应链的透明度。

Right now, seemingly everything we want to buy is delayed

目前，由于缺少微处理器，

我们想要的每件商品，甚至是汽车，

because of a lack of microprocessors,

似乎都处在供应延迟状态。

even cars.

But how could the auto industry --

但是为什么汽车业——

arguably the industry that invented supplier collaboration

这个最先引入供应商协作、

and supply-chain visibility --

供应链可视化的行业——

be caught by surprise?

也会措手不及？

Microprocessors power the computers

微处理器驱动电脑，

that, increasingly, make our cars work the way they're supposed to.

而电脑让汽车性能越来越符合设想。

And early in the COVID-19 pandemic,

新冠疫情初期，

auto manufacturers canceled orders for microprocessors

汽车制造商由于担心汽车滞销

out of fear that car sales would plummet.

而取消了对微处理器的订购。

And around the same time,

几乎与此同时，

demand for those microprocessors in consumer electronics went way up.

家用电器对微处理器的 需求却直线攀升。

Parents bought tablets so their kids could learn from home,

家长要购买平板电脑， 以供孩子在家上学，

newly remote workers bought laptops.

从事远程办公的人员要 购买笔记本电脑。

Then, a fire at a chip plant

后来，一座芯片厂又发生了火灾，

meant fewer of these microprocessors were even being made.

这就意味着，芯片产量下降。

And by the time car sales began to recover,

当汽车零售业开始复苏时，

microprocessors were on back order.

微处理器已经开始缺货。

In other words,

也就是说，

the reason why automotive companies can't get the microprocessors they need

汽车制造商之所以无法获得 亟需的微处理器，

has little, if anything, to do with the automotive industry.

与该行业本身基本无关。

And this is a good example of a broader problem.

这个例子很好地例证了 一个广泛存在的问题。

In supply chain,

在供应链中，

your risks are not tied only to your customers or to your competitors,

你承担的风险不仅仅与消费者， 或者行业竞争者有关，

but also to those companies who are using the same inputs.

而且还牵涉到其他行业里 需要输入同样物资的公司。

I doubt Ford considers the PlayStation 5 to be a competitor to the F-150,

我怀疑，福特公司是否曾想到过 PlayStation 5 会和 F-150 竞争，

but in this case, they could have been competing for the same, scarce resource.

但是，在当前这个事例里，二者 很可能会为同一个稀缺资源而竞争。

And that's why we need a radical improvement in supply-chain transparency.

这就是我们需要彻底提高 供应链透明度的原因。

It's not enough to know who your suppliers are.

仅仅知道你的供应商是谁 是远远不够的。

You have to know who your supplier's suppliers are,

你还必须清楚 谁在为你的供应商供货，

where those supplier’s suppliers get their raw materials,

供应商的供应商又是 从哪里获得这些原材料的，

who else is buying from those suppliers,

还有谁在从这些供应商手中进货，

and who else is competing for those raw materials.

谁在竞争购买原材料。

Often what looks like several unrelated product lines

几个看起来毫无关联的生产链

can be traced back to a single source.

常常可以溯源到同一个源头。

We think we have diversified supply chains, but we don't.

我们以为供应链已经 实现多元化，但其实不然。

We have a supply web.

我们只有一个单一的供应网络。

And if key players in that web fail,

如果网络中的关键一环出现问题，

then many supply chains are in big trouble.

许多供应链都会陷入大麻烦。

If we want more resilient supply chains,

我们如果想要提高供应链的适应力，

then we need accurate, up-to-date maps of key inputs

就需要有一幅精准的、 实时更新的信息图，

and where they come from,

图上标注出各个行业内的 关键性物资输入，

in any given industry.

以及物资来源。

Supply-chain managers are, fundamentally, planners.

物流经理的基本工作是制定计划。

They analyze and interpret information,

他们要对信息进行分析诠释，

and they revise their plans to efficiently meet expected demand

还要调整规划， 以有效率地满足预期需求，

with a steady stream of supply.

确保供应源源不断。

Supply-chain control towers bring all of that information into one place,

供应链的指挥塔将 各种信息全部集中起来，

and better data should help better decision-making.

提高数据质量 将有助于改进决策制定。

But too much data can simply be overwhelming,

但是数据过多的话， 就会令人不知所措，

and that's why we need technology to help us.

所以我们需要有辅助性技术。

The good news is that advances in data mining,

好消息是，数据挖掘、

artificial intelligence and machine learning

人工智能、机器学习 等技术的不断进步

increasingly mean that computers can help us

意味着电脑将会越来越有助于我们

analyze thousands or millions of points of data,

分析成千，甚至上百万的数据，

predict problems before they arise, notify managers

预测即将出现的问题， 并通知提醒管理人员，

and even recommend actions to take.

甚至还可以提供行动建议。

Right now, some types of plastics are in short supply.

目前，某些种类的塑料供不应求。

Plastic resin manufacturers decreased production,

塑料树脂厂家减产，

dealing with COVID-19 outbreaks.

以应对新冠肺炎的爆发。

But by the time they began to recover,

但是，正当这些厂家开始恢复生产时，

they were hit with a string of natural disasters,

他们又遭到了一连串自然灾害的冲击，

from Hurricane Laura on the Gulf Coast in 2020

比如，2020 年墨西哥湾沿岸 发生的的飓风劳拉，

to a brutal winter storm in the South in 2021.

2021 年冬天南方出现的 严重风暴，等等。

No amount of data-sharing could have told us

数据共享不能告诉我们

what companies would be affected,

哪些公司会受到影响，

what companies don't use plastics.

哪些公司不使用塑料。

But a computer could have helped spot the problem among the data points.

但是计算机可以帮助我们 从数据中发现问题。

Decreased production and COVID-19 lockdowns,

工厂减产、新冠疫情封锁，

combined with severe weather,

加之天气恶劣，

a surge in demand for plastic packaging as grocery sales grew,

此外，随着商品销售的增长， 对塑料包装的需求也出现了激增，

and a spike in trucking rates

然后还有卡车运输费的飙升，

would have been enough to trigger some warnings in specific areas,

这些状况足以让计算机在某些 特定领域内敲响警钟，

and then notify managers and recommend what they might do about it.

通知提醒管理人员， 并就应对措施，提供建议。

"Hey, this supplier is looking risky.

“嗨，这个供应商看上去岌岌可危。

Do you have a chance to order from somebody else?

你还能从别处订货吗？

Maybe start calling other trucking companies

现在也许应该打电话 给其他运输公司，

to make sure you get your supplies on time,

以确保按时收货；

and we should notify these customers that their orders might be delayed."

我们还要通知这些客户，他们订购的 商品可能会延迟到货，等等。”

This is similar to how the airline industry

这就类似于航空业

manages passenger delays and missed connections.

在处理乘客延误，或错过 转机航班时所采取的措施。

Computers analyze data on available flights, weather conditions,

计算机对飞行航班、天气状况、

passenger locations and passenger destinations,

乘客所在地及目的地等 数据进行分析，

to reroute hundreds or even thousands of people in a day.

每天为成百上千的旅客 重新规划行程。

And we could do the same thing in a supply chain.

同样的措施也可以用在供应链上。

I don’t want to sound

我并不是说

like the things supply chain managers have done haven’t helped,

物流经理们至今所做的 一切皆全然无用，

but we can do better.

但是，我们可以做得更好。

When the virus struck,

当病毒来袭之时，

we faced a dire need for N95 respirators and personal protective equipment.

我们亟需 N95 人工呼吸机 和其他个人防护设备。

Government stockpiles of N95s were depleted,

政府储备的 N95 呼吸机已消耗殆尽，

hospital orders were backlogged two to three years,

医院订单已积压到了两三年之后，

and health-care workers reused single-use protective equipment.

医护人员不得不重复使用 一次性防护设备。

But again, I'm not talking about COVID-19.

我谈论的并不是新冠肺炎,

I'm talking about the 2009 outbreak of the H1N1 flu.

而是 2009 年爆发的 H1N1 流感。

And we have to stop repeating the same mistakes.

我们不能重复犯同样的错误。

So let's be imaginative

所以，让咱们来想象一下，

about how we challenge businesses and government

怎样才能激发商业和政府部门

to use shared risk,

采纳诸如风险共担，

supply-chain transparency and automated recommendations

提高供应链透明度， 计算机自动发布响应建议等措施，

to make our supply chains more resilient.

从而提升供应链的适应性。

Because if they do,

如果供应链的适应力增强了，

we can be more resilient too.

我们的适应力也会随之增强。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Cheers and applause)

【欢呼声及掌声】