How Millennials and Gen Z Can Invest in a Better Future | Miguel Goncalves | TED

翻译人员: sylvia feng 校对人员: Yan Li Xiao

In the coming decades,

在接下来的几十年里，

my generation of millennials and Gen Zers

我们千禧一代和 Z 世代

will inherit the largest amount of wealth humanity has ever created:

将继承人类曾经创造过最多的财富：

some 30 trillion dollars.

约 30 万亿美元。

That's a huge wallet.

那是一个巨大的数目。

Unluckily for us, we'll also inherit some huge issues:

对我们来说不幸的是，我们也会继承 许多十分重大的问题：

climate change, geopolitical instability,

全球变暖，地缘政治不稳定，

inequality.

不平等。

What we choose to do or not do with this enormous wallet

我们用着我们巨大的财富 选择去做和不做的事情

will define the future of our species.

将会决定我们人类未来的命运。

No pressure, folks.

各位不要有压力。

Why, might you ask, am I talking about my generation's wallet?

你可能会问，为什么 我要讲述关于我们这一代的财富呢？

Well, the reason why is because I'm an investor,

那是因为我是一个投资者，

and the essence of my job is to allocate your savings to build a better future.

我的工作的核心就是分配好 你的储蓄来建造一个更好的未来。

Because I'm also a millennial

因为我也是一个不太喜欢

who doesn't particularly like losing sleep

因为想到全球气温上升而失眠

over the thought of rising global temperatures,

的千禧一代，

my job also requires me to think about what's good for society.

我的工作使我思考什么对社会有益。

And from where I sit,

从我的认知出发，

one of the keys to bettering the world is ESG investing.

让世界变得更好的 十分重要的一点是 ESG 投资。

ESG stands for environmental, social and governance.

ESG 是环境、 社会及管治投资的缩写。

Think of ESG as additional little pieces of data that some investors consider

将 ESG 视为一些 投资者在分析风险，

when analyzing the risks or opportunities of an investment.

或投资机会时考虑的额外小数据。

So, for example, a car company that starts selling more electric vehicles

例如，一家汽车公司 开始销售更多的电动汽车，

may be around longer in a future where we can't burn as many fossil fuels.

那这个汽车公司可以存在的时间更长， 因为以后我们不能燃烧很多化石燃料。

So an investor might consider that company

所以一个投资者将会把这家公司视为

to be a safer place to put your money.

一个更稳定的投资的地方。

In an ideal world, here's what ESG promises.

在一个理想的世界里， 以下是 ESG 的承诺。

It promises better investment returns

它承诺更好的投资回报

because money is invested in companies with sustainable practices,

因为把钱投资于 有可持续的实践公司的，

which makes them likelier to be around longer-term.

可以使它更有可能长期存在。

It promises business leaders who share more and better data

它向会带来 更多更好的分享公司运营数据

about what their companies are doing.

的商业领袖承诺。

It promises greater productivity

它将通过将资金分配给与客户、 员工和供应商

by allocating money to companies

保持良好关系的企业

that maintain strong relationships with customers, employees and suppliers.

来提高效率和产率。

That's the vision.

这就是愿景。

The good news is that some people,

好消息是有些人，

younger generations especially,

尤其是年轻一代，

have started buying into this vision.

已经开始支持这个愿景。

And ESG strategies have gained a ton of momentum over the past years.

ESG 战略在过去几年里 获得了巨大的推动。

That’s the good news. #happy.

这是好消息。#开心。

The not so good news

不太好的消息是

is that we're still far away from achieving the full promises of ESG.

我们距离实现 ESG 带来的全部好处还很远。

Here's a sobering fact.

这里有一个让人悲伤的消息。

A recent survey from Kalon, a major investment consulting firm,

大型投资咨询公司 Kalon 最近的一项调查显示，

suggests that about half of institutional investors

大约一半的机构投资者

consider the benefits of ESG to be unclear or unproven.

认为 ESG 的好处 尚不清楚或未经证实。

In other words,

换种说法就是，

many of the people who will allocate millennials' and Gen Zers' money

许多将为千禧一代和 z 一代 分配资金的人并不完全相信

aren't fully convinced that ESG is relevant

在决定将资金投向何处时，

when deciding where to put your money.

ESG 是重要的参考因素。

Now, I think there are many reasons why this might be the case.

我认为有很多原因 可以解释这种情况。

For example, investors focused on short-term outcomes

例如，关注短期结果的投资者

might not necessarily know the best way to consider longer-term sustainability.

可能并不一定知道考虑长期 可持续性的最佳方式。

Or there may be a sense that companies can't do well and do good

或者，可能会有一种感觉

at the same time.

公司不能同时做好和做的赞。

Whatever the reason may be, this is a problem, folks.

不管是出于什么原因， 这是一个巨大的问题。

If the people running the investment strategies don't anticipate ESG will work,

如果执行投资策略的人 不预期 ESG 会起作用，

how can we achieve its full promises?

我们如何实现它 的能带来的全部好处呢?

The key word in all of this is “expect.”

这里的关键词就是“期望”。

Let me now tell you something I didn't fully appreciate

现在让我告诉你一些 直到我开始从事金融工作

until I started working in finance.

才完全欣赏的事情。

We'd all like to think that investment decisions are made with cold,

我们都认为，投资决策是根据冰冷、 确凿的数据而来的，

hard data and nothing else.

它并不参杂其他的东西。

But the truth is that investors are people and the economy is made of people.

但事实是，投资者是人， 经济是由人组成的。

Which means that, like it or not,

这意味着，不管你喜不喜欢，

a lot of what happens in financial markets

金融市场上发生的很多事情

comes down to psychology and expectations.

都归结于心理和期望。

And these expectations can be a force for good or bad.

这些期望可以 是一种好的或坏的力量。

John Maynard Keynes, one of the fathers of modern economics,

现代经济学之父之一的 约翰•梅纳德•凯恩斯，

once famously described how powerful expectations --

曾有过一个著名的描述—

or animal spirits, as he called them --

强大的预期 (他称之为动物精神)—

can play a powerful role in markets.

可以在市场中发挥强大的作用。

He also had a pretty sweet mustache.

他还有一个很酷的胡子。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Anyway, I digress.

不过，我跑题了

The point is that I've seen the power of what expectations can do.

重点是我看见过“预期”的力量， 和他可以做的事。

And here's a firsthand example.

我有一个第一手的例子。

I'm from Venezuela,

我来自委内瑞拉，

and in the late twenty-teens,

在 20 世纪 20 年代末，

my home country experienced one of the worst periods of hyperinflation

我的祖国经历了有史以来最严重

ever recorded.

的恶性通货膨胀时期之一。

Now, there were many reasons why this hyperinflation took place

恶性通货膨胀发生的原因有很多

and I won't go into all of them here.

在这里我就不一一讲了。

But among those reasons was a concept called inflation expectations.

但在这些原因中 有一个叫做通胀预期的概念。

What inflation expectations basically means

通胀预期的基本意思是，

is that when people believe prices in the future will go up,

当人们相信未来价格会上涨时，

that belief, that animal spirit, can literally cause prices to rise today.

这种信念，这种动物精神， 会导致价格上涨。

Expectations create reality.

期望创造现实。

So coming back to ESG,

所以回到 ESG，

what Venezuela and Lord Keynes have taught me

委内瑞拉和凯恩斯勋爵教会我的是，

is that making ESG and sustainability mainstream

让 ESG 和可持续发展成为主流，

will require us to literally redefine society's expectations

需要我们重新定义社会 对 ESG 是什么

of what ESG is and what it can do.

以及它能做什么的期望。

That might sound like a tall order,

这听起来可能有点难，

but I think there's a few things you and I can do about it.

但我觉得我们可以做一些事情。

One solution investors are working on is to standardize ESG metrics.

一个投资者正在研究的 解决方案是将 ESG 指标标准化。

So for context, right now,

所以现在就背景而言，

there are lots of divergent opinions about what metrics matter most

目前对于哪些指标最重要或最重要

or are material.

存在许多不同意见。

And in the middle of this analysis paralysis,

在这种分析瘫痪的过程中，

because there's a million things we could be measuring,

因为我们可以衡量的东西有一百万个，

it's no surprise why some investors are skeptical.

所以一些投资者持怀疑态度 也就不足为奇了。

Standardizing ESG metrics is showing some promise already.

标准化 ESG 指标 已经显示出一些希望。

Instead of incentivizing investors to cherry-pick data

他们没有鼓励投资者

that makes companies look good,

挑选那些让公司看起来不错的数据，

they encourage us to measure what matters.

而是鼓励我们衡量什么才是重要的。

For example, data security is massively important for health care companies

例如，数据安全对于医疗保健公司 来说非常重要，

because patient safety and security are paramount.

因为患者的安全是至关重要的。

Although important,

虽然重要，

data security might not be as central a consideration

数据安全可能

for, say, a kitchen cabinet manufacturer.

不是厨柜制造商考虑的重点。

There's a cool Harvard Business School study that was released not too long ago,

哈佛商学院不久前发布了 一项很酷的研究，

and it found that companies that address material ESG issues

该研究发现，能够面对并试图解决 重大 ESG 问题的公司的业绩

can outperform companies that don't by as much as nine percent per year.

比那些不解决 ESG 问题的公司高出 9%。

That's good news.

这是好消息。

#cantstopwontstop.

#没法停不想停。

Here's a second solution.

这里是第二个解决方法。

Investors like me are working on literally changing the way

像我这样的投资者正在努力改变

we calculate financial forecasts.

我们计算财务预测的方式。

So right now, most investors use

所以现在，大多数投资者使用

financial models to make educated predictions

财务模型对一家公司未来

about what a company might do in the future

可能做什么以及它能赚多少钱

and how much money it's going to make.

做出有根据的预测。

Let's just say we also excel at making spreadsheets.

我们说我们也擅长制作电子表格。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I'm so thrilled more than zero people laughed at that one.

我很高兴居然有人 被这个笑话逗笑了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

What if, though, what if,

但是，如果，

in addition to basic financial data,

除了基本的财务数据，

we built in other pieces of data into our models

我们在我们的模型中加入其他的数据

that are predictive of how much earnings a company is going to make?

来预测一个公司将会赚多少钱呢?

But beyond standardized ESG metrics

但除了标准化的 ESG 指标

or new ways of calculating financial forecasts,

或计算财务预测的新方法之外，

I think the third and most important thing we need is trust.

我觉得第三点 和最重要的一点就是信任。

If we trust and expect that companies that do good will be around longer,

如果我们相信并期待 做好事的公司会存在得更久，

we start to create a future where ESG becomes an indelible part of any company.

我们将开创一个 ESG 成为所有 公司不可磨灭的一部分的一个未来。

We start to create a future where sustainable companies

我们开始创造 这样一个拥有可持续发展

are less risky to own,

的公司风险更低，

and money managers believe in using the right data to make better decisions.

基金经理相信使用 正确的数据来做出更好的决策。

We start to create a world where you, the personal investor,

我们开始创造一个世界， 在那里你，个人投资者，

leverage the power of expectations to demand even more tools,

利用期望的力量 来要获取更多的工具，

even better metrics, and so on and so forth,

更好的指标，等等，

where trust in the system improves further.

我们将对这套系统更加信任。

Economists might call this a virtuous cycle.

经济学家可能称之为良性循环。

I sometimes call this

我有时把它称作为为

"the virtuous cycle of how to keep humanity alive

“让人类在未来几个世纪 和亿万年中生存的良性循环，

for centuries and eons to come, yay, awesome."

耶，这太棒了。”

But that might be a little too long.

但那可能有点太长了。

So for short,

简而言之，

let’s call it “the virtuous cycle of investing in the 21st century.”

我们把它称作之为 “21 世纪投资的良性循环”吧。

Because like it or not,

因为不管你喜不喜欢，

it represents the future of investing.

它代表着投资的未来。

If there’s one thing to take away from what I’ve been saying, it’s this:

如果什么你们可以从我一直在说的话中 得到启发的，那就是:

Fellow millennials and Gen Zers, start thinking about your assets today.

千禧一代和z世代的同胞们，

Start thinking about your savings.

从今天开始考虑你的资产吧。 开始考虑你的储蓄。

What might be passed down to you

什么会被遗传给你，

and how it can be used to build the world's future.

以及如何用它来建设世界的未来。

If you don't invest your own money,

如果你自己不投资自己的钱，

ask your fund manager what they plan to do with your assets,

问问你的基金经理， 他们打算用你的钱做什么，

what metrics they use and why.

他们使用什么衡量标准， 并且为什么用这个衡量标准。

Your pension funds, your 401k,

你的养老基金，你的 401k，

even the money in your savings or checking account,

甚至你的储蓄或支票账户中的钱，

all can be put to work

都可以用来

to create the virtuous cycle of investing in the 21st century.

在 21 世纪创造投资的良性循环。

And if this sounds like a pie in the sky idea right now,

如果这听起来像是 一个空中馅饼的想法，

think about Lord Keynes' mustache for a second

想想凯恩斯勋爵的胡子，

and consider whether it's your expectations

考虑一下你的期望

that may need changing.

是否需要改变。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）