An Optimist’s Take on Reskilling in the Age of AI | Sagar Goel | TED

翻译人员: Sue Lu 校对人员: Yip Yan Yeung

Just the other day, I was having this casual coffee chat

不久前，我和朋友闲聊时，

with a friend and he asked me,

他问我：

"Am I going to be replaced by AI?

“我会被人工智能（AI）取代吗？

I don't want to go back to school to learn new skills, I'm 40.

不想再回学校学新技能，都四十岁了。

And even if I do, won't employers prefer to hire someone half my age?"

就算我学了，雇主也会雇更年轻的吧？”

I mean, I get his concern

我明白他的担忧，

and I have many other friends and clients who’ve been asking me similar questions.

还有许多朋友及客户在问我类似的问题。

To be very honest, sometimes I worry about it too.

说实话，有时候我也很担心。

You see, I'm a consultant and consultants like me are famous,

你看，像我这样的顾问，名声在外，

or some of you may even say infamous, for creating these extensive,

或者说“臭名远扬”， 就因为我们擅长制作内容详尽、

deeply researched, well-polished slide decks.

经过深入研究和精心打磨的幻灯片。

But you know what?

但你知道吗？

We take great pride in this ability.

我们对自己的这种能力非常自豪。

But what took us days and sometimes weeks in the past

不过，以前我们花几天甚至几周做的，

can now increasingly be done in a matter of hours, thanks to AI.

现在 AI 可以在几小时内完成。

And well, this sort of thing is happening all over the economic landscape.

这种改变正在影响整个经济领域，

One in every three workers globally

全球每三名员工中就有一名

will find their jobs significantly impacted

将发现他们的工作受到严重影响，

due to technology in this decade.

都是这十年来的技术发展所造成的。

And that's not just bank tellers, factory workers and warehouse staff,

不仅是银行出纳员、工人和仓库管理员，

but executive managers and office workers too.

连高管和办公室职员也受到影响，

You and me and all of us.

包括你我，我们所有人，

That's going to be more than one billion people impacted.

将有超过十亿人受到影响。

And companies can't hire their way through this problem.

而公司无法通过招聘来解决这个问题。

Firstly, there just isn't enough talent in growing areas such as data science,

首先，这些发展壮大的领域 缺乏足够的人才，如数据科学、

cybersecurity or clean energy.

网络安全或清洁能源等领域。

And even if companies managed

而且，即使公司设法

to somehow hire their absolute best talent,

雇到了他们需要的优秀人才，

in five years,

五年之内，

half of their skills will become redundant.

这些人才一半的技能就会过时。

Two and a half years, if you’re working in technology.

如果你在技术领域工作，两年半就过时。

This is what we call the half life of skills.

这就是我们所说的“技能半衰期”。

The only solution is to reskill millions of people every year

唯一的解决方案是 每年对数百万人进行再培训，

and get them to use those new skills to transition into new occupations.

让他们使用新学的技能过渡到新职业。

But as I say this, I do realize

但我也意识到，

this is going to be a profoundly complex societal challenge

这将是一项极其深远复杂的社会挑战，

and so big, that governments, companies and individuals must -- together.

其规模巨大，只有靠 政府、公司和个人齐心协力，

They must work together.

共同面对。

I am confident that the only way forward is to replace our fear

我相信，唯一的出路就是将我们的惧怕

and our skepticism

和怀疑

with curiosity and optimism.

以好奇和乐观来取而代之。

And I know this is possible

我知道这是可行的，

because of my experience working with the Singapore government

因为我参与过新加坡政府

一个最大规模的数字技能再培训项目。

on one of their largest digital reskilling programs.

Singapore is a tiny country,

新加坡是一个极小的国家，

barely visible on the world map

在世界地图上几乎看不到，

and devoid of any major natural resources.

没有任何主要的自然资源。

But they realized early on that the only way to grow the nation

但他们很早就意识到国家发展的唯一途径

is to grow its people.

是培养人才。

And since then, they have embraced reskilling so excitedly

因此，他们积极地接受了再培训，

that if you visit Singapore,

如果你去新加坡，

you're likely going to be bumping into skills ambassadors at shopping malls,

你很可能在购物中心碰到技能大使，

talking excitedly about the impact of adult skill building

正在兴奋地谈论成人技能培训的影响，

through gamified interactive kiosks.

如何通过游戏化互动自助终端实现。

They share positive stories of reskilling on national news,

全国性新闻常常分享再培训的积极范例，

and they even talk about reskilling

政府甚至将再培训

as part of the national defense agenda

作为国防议程的一部分，

against threats and challenges to the economy.

用以应对经济方面的威胁和挑战。

There was even a "lifelong learning" float

“终身学习”的花车竟然

at Singapore's National Day parade this year.

出现在今年的新加坡国庆游行中。

Unusual, isn't it,

很不寻常，是吧，

to see a country take such a positive and proactive approach?

一个国家能采取如此积极主动的方式？

But it was no surprise for me

所以，我一点都不惊奇，

that in 2020, during record unemployment,

在 2020 年失业率创纪录的时候，

the government reached out to my company to ask

政府会联系我的公司，问我们

if we could take a few unemployed workers as interns.

可否接纳一些失业者来当实习生。

But that conversation quickly spiraled into something much bigger.

那次对话很快酝酿成了一件大事。

And soon we were working jointly to launch an at-scale,

不久，我们合作推出了一个大型项目，

six-month program called "Rise"

为期六个月，称作“崛起”（Rise），

to reskill thousands of individuals from traditional declining roles

旨在重新培训数千人 从走下坡路的传统岗位

into roles such as data scientists,

过渡到新兴岗位，如数据科学家、

digital product owner and digital marketeer.

数字产品负责人和数字营销人员等。

But ...

但是……

As applications to our program increased,

随着我们项目的申请人数增加，

so did my nervousness.

我也越来越紧张。

Many of our applicants had been out of formal education

许多申请人已经离开正规教育

for more than 20 years.

超过 20 年。

We had Simon, a 53-year-old from the construction sector

比如来自建筑业的 53 岁的西蒙，

who survived two economic crises,

经历了两次经济危机，

to realize that he now wants to get into a digital career.

现在他也想做份数字方面的工作。

We had Hafizah,

还有哈菲扎，

who spent more than seven months looking for her perfect job,

花了七个多月都没找到理想的工作，

to realize that she needed new skills

令我们意识到她需要新的技能

to pivot away from the traditional media industry that she worked in,

来摆脱她一直从事的传统媒体行业，

which was getting impacted by technology.

该行业也受到科技冲击。

As I spoke to many of our learners,

与许多学员的交谈，

it was clear to me that this was not going to be an easy transition for them.

让我清楚意识到这个转型并非易事。

So right from the first week,

因此，从第一周开始，

we focused not just on building their skill set,

我们不仅专注于培养技能，

but building their mindset

也专注于培养思维模式，

and building their confidence in their ability to reskill

树立他们重塑技能

and make a career pivot happen.

并实现职业转换的信心。

And this is when we taught them skills

这期间我们教给了他们

such as first principles problem solving,

解决问题的首要原则这类策略，

a strategy we consultants use to solve some of our client's difficult problems.

那是我们顾问用来解决客户难题的策略。

First principles problem solving is challenging assumptions

解决问题的首要原则在于挑战各种假设，

to identify the real problem to be solved,

找出真正需要解决的问题，

and then looking at issues from multiple fresh perspectives,

然后从多个全新的角度审视问题，

even when you may not have deep subject matter expertise to begin with,

即使最初没有深入的学科专业知识，

and then distilling the core insight in a concise way.

最后也能以简洁的方式提炼出核心见解。

These first principles problem solving skills would prepare our learners

解决问题的首要原则帮助学员做好准备，

to thrive in these unfamiliar situations they will find themselves in

在新工作领域的陌生环境中

in these new job domains.

茁壮成长。

And then to teach them the digital or the technology skills,

然后，为了教授他们数字或技术技能，

we had to make things very, very real and practical for our mature learners.

我们制定了适合成年学员的 非常实用的课程，

So we put their skills in action on real projects.

让学员们将技能运用到真正的项目中，

And this is where we invited executives from companies like Olam,

我们邀请了公司高管，他们来自奥兰、

Danone and Singapore Airlines to host hackathons.

达能和新加坡航空公司等， 为我们举办黑客马拉松。

I still remember one of the hackathon showcases

我还记得在一个黑客马拉松展示会上，

where our "Rise" learners

我们的“崛起”学员

presented the deep user research they did,

介绍了他们所做的深入用户研究，

and the mock up of the digital app that they were recommending.

以及他们推荐的数字应用程序的模型。

One of the client professionals got so excited and he told them,

一位专业人士客户很兴奋地告诉他们：

"This is like professional consulting work."

“这就像专业的咨询工作。”

I sat there smiling cheek to cheek,

我坐在那里笑逐言开，

because I knew that if these learners had applied for jobs,

知道如果这些学员在培训前申请工作，

their applications would have been screened out even in the very first stage.

他们的申请在第一阶段就会被淘汰。

And yet, more than 80 percent of our learners found jobs.

现在，超过 80％的学员都找到了工作。

Our friend Simon,

我们的朋友西蒙，

he got hired as a digital project manager in In-Shore Tech.

他被聘为 In-Shore Tech 的 数字项目经理。

And Hafiza,

还有哈菲扎，

she works as a digital marketing specialist

她现在是一名数字营销专家，

in [a] cyber security company.

在一家网络安全公司工作。

Every time somebody from our program found a job,

每当我们的学员找到工作，

we felt like proud parents.

我们都会感到像父母一样自豪。

Such bliss, I tell you.

真的，非常开心。

But the government of Singapore had an important role to play

不过，新加坡政府也发挥了重要作用，

in the success of programs like "Rise."

帮助“崛起”这类项目取得成功。

They created a national job database

他们创建了一个全国就业数据库，

and they incentivized companies to hire such reskilled talent.

并鼓励公司雇用此类再培训的人才。

They're even steering academia to transition from higher education

他们甚至引导学术界从高等教育

to continuous learning.

转型到持续学习的教育。

And they have so successfully changed the narrative from fear to curiosity

他们成功地让人们从惧怕变为好奇，

that in 2021 alone,

仅在 2021 年，

more than 660,000 individuals

超过 66 万人

and more than 24,000 companies

和 24,000 家公司

participated in their programs.

参与了再培训计划。

And if you thought Singapore was unique, we are not the only ones.

也许你以为新加坡是特例，不是的。

Italy, Spain, India and many other countries

意大利、西班牙、印度和许多其他国家

are launching similar skilling initiatives.

正在启动类似的技能培训计划。

But beyond the role of governments,

但是，除了政府，

companies play an important part

公司也发挥着重要作用，

to shift this mindset from skepticism

帮助人们从怀疑的心态转变到

to optimism for reskilling.

乐观看待再培训。

Take Ikea, the global furniture player.

以全球家具巨头宜家（IKEA）为例。

In 2021,

2021 年，

Ikea launched this AI bot they call Billy

宜家推出人工智能机器人 Billy，

to manage majority of their routine customer inquiries.

用于管理大部分的日常客户来电。

But hold on a second.

但是，

What would happen to all those call center employees?

那些电话服务中心的员工怎么办呢？

Would they lose their jobs?

他们会失业吗？

No.

不会。

This is where Ikea chose to take a revolutionary approach,

因为宜家选择了采取彻底变革的方式，

and they actually ended up reskilling more than 8,500 individuals

最终重新培训了超过 8500 名

who were call center employees

呼叫中心员工，

into interior design consultants to provide new,

让他们成为室内设计顾问， 为客户提供崭新的

personalized design services to their customers.

个性化设计服务。

And the best part of this story

这个故事最棒的部分是，

is that Ikea won the hearts and the minds

宜家赢得了人心，

of its employees and customers,

得到员工和顾客的拥戴，

but made an incremental sales

其销售额增量，

of more than 1.4 billion dollars in 2022 alone.

仅在 2022 年就超过 14 亿美元。

Now ultimately beyond governments and companies,

归根结底，除了政府和公司之外，

the real change must come from all of us.

真正的变革必须来自我们所有人。

I've been trying to invest in my own skills

我一直在努力增进自己的技能，

and not worry too much about my pretty slides and AI,

不过分担心漂亮幻灯片和 AI，

and to model the lifelong learning behavior to my six-year-old.

并为我六岁的孩子树立终身学习的榜样。

He has this piggy bank that we call "my learning bank"

儿子有个存钱罐 ， 我们称之为“我的学习银行”，

to save money to learn new skills.

用来为学习新技能存学费。

Very recently, we used our savings on a course for robotics for kids.

最近，他用这些积蓄 上了一门儿童机器人课程。

He just loves building things, I tell you.

他非常喜欢建造东西，

And he was very, very excited to show off the giraffe that he had built

超兴奋地给大家展示他做的长颈鹿，

that could walk step by step.

它可以一步步行走。

And step by step is all we need to embrace the reskilling revolution.

这正是我们需要的， 一步步地迎接再培训革命。

Job evolution due to technology is just going to be this new reality

科技带来的就业演变将成为新现实，

of the world we have to live in.

我们必须面对的未来世界。

But we must embrace this not with fear and with skepticism,

所以，我们不应抱着惧怕和怀疑的心态，

but with curiosity and optimism

而应充满好奇和乐观地

for building our skills again and again.

迎接一次次的技能再培训。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）