An Optimist’s Take on Reskilling in the Age of AI | Sagar Goel | TED

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: C Leung

Just the other day, I was having this casual coffee chat

不久前我和一位朋友 在喝咖啡聊天時，他問我：

with a friend and he asked me,

"Am I going to be replaced by AI?

「我會被人工智慧取代嗎？

I don't want to go back to school to learn new skills, I'm 40.

我不想再回學校去學習 新技能，我四十歲了。

And even if I do, won't employers prefer to hire someone half my age?"

就算我真的去學了，雇主也比較 想僱用年齡只有我一半的人吧？」

I mean, I get his concern

我了解他的憂慮，

and I have many other friends and clients who’ve been asking me similar questions.

我有很多朋友和客戶 都問過我類似的問題。

To be very honest, sometimes I worry about it too.

老實說，

我有時也會擔心這一點。

You see, I'm a consultant and consultants like me are famous,

要知道，我是顧問， 而像我這樣的顧問，

最聞名遐邇的，或著 有些人會說是聲名狼藉的，

or some of you may even say infamous, for creating these extensive,

就是會做一堆深入研究 又精心製作的投影片。

deeply researched, well-polished slide decks.

But you know what?

但你知道嗎？ 我們對這項能力非常自豪。

We take great pride in this ability.

But what took us days and sometimes weeks in the past

但，我們過去要花數日， 有時要花數星期來做的事，

can now increasingly be done in a matter of hours, thanks to AI.

因為人工智慧，現在漸漸 只需要幾小時就能完成。

And well, this sort of thing is happening all over the economic landscape.

且現在於整個經濟領域中 都可以看到這種狀況。

One in every three workers globally

全球，每三名工作者就有一名

will find their jobs significantly impacted

在這十年內就會發現 自己的工作受到顯著的衝擊。

due to technology in this decade.

And that's not just bank tellers, factory workers and warehouse staff,

不僅是銀行出納員、 工廠工人和倉庫人員，

but executive managers and office workers too.

連執行經理和辦公室內勤人員 都會受到影響。

You and me and all of us.

你、我，和所有人。

That's going to be more than one billion people impacted.

會有超過十億人受到衝擊。

And companies can't hire their way through this problem.

而且公司無法透過僱人 來解決這個問題。

Firstly, there just isn't enough talent in growing areas such as data science,

首先，在資料科學、網絡安全， 或乾淨能源等不斷發展的領域中，

cybersecurity or clean energy.

人才就是不足。

And even if companies managed

且就算企業有辦法請到絕佳的人才，

to somehow hire their absolute best talent,

in five years,

在五年內，

half of their skills will become redundant.

他們有一半的技能就會變成多餘的。

Two and a half years, if you’re working in technology.

如果是在技術領域工作， 兩年半內就會發生。

This is what we call the half life of skills.

這就是我們稱之為技能半衰期。

The only solution is to reskill millions of people every year

唯一的解決方案就是每年 幫數百萬人進行技能再造，

and get them to use those new skills to transition into new occupations.

並讓他們運用這些新技能， 轉換到新的職業跑道。

But as I say this, I do realize

但我這麼說的同時，我也很清楚

這會是個非常複雜的社會挑戰，

this is going to be a profoundly complex societal challenge

and so big, that governments, companies and individuals must -- together.

且重大到政府、企業， 和個人必須同心協力。

They must work together.

他們必須合作。

I am confident that the only way forward is to replace our fear

我相信，唯一的前進之路，

是把我們的恐懼和懷疑態度

and our skepticism

with curiosity and optimism.

換成好奇心和樂觀主義。

And I know this is possible

我知道這是可行的，

因我曾與新加坡政府合作，

because of my experience working with the Singapore government

進行該國其中一個最大型的 數位技能再造計畫的經驗。

on one of their largest digital reskilling programs.

Singapore is a tiny country,

新加坡是個小國， 小到難以在世界地圖上看見，

barely visible on the world map

and devoid of any major natural resources.

並沒有任何重要的天然資源。

But they realized early on that the only way to grow the nation

但他們很早就意識到， 發展國家唯一的方法

is to grow its people.

就是培養其人民。

And since then, they have embraced reskilling so excitedly

從那時起，他們就 很興奮地擁抱技能再造，

that if you visit Singapore,

程度到了如果你造訪新加坡， 在購物中心都會撞見技能大使，

you're likely going to be bumping into skills ambassadors at shopping malls,

興奮地高談闊論

talking excitedly about the impact of adult skill building

透過遊戲化的互動式多媒體事務機， 對成人技能培養的影響力。

through gamified interactive kiosks.

They share positive stories of reskilling on national news,

他們會在國家新聞上分享 有關技能再造的正面故事，

and they even talk about reskilling

他們甚至將技能再造視為 國防議程的一部分，

as part of the national defense agenda

用以對抗經濟上面臨的威脅和挑戰。

against threats and challenges to the economy.

There was even a "lifelong learning" float

在今年的新加坡國慶遊行中， 甚至還有台「終身學習」花車。

at Singapore's National Day parade this year.

Unusual, isn't it,

很不尋常，對吧？

to see a country take such a positive and proactive approach?

竟會看到一個國家 採用如此積極主動的方法。

But it was no surprise for me

但我並不訝異，

that in 2020, during record unemployment,

在 2020 年失業率創記錄的期間，

the government reached out to my company to ask

該政府和我的公司聯絡，

if we could take a few unemployed workers as interns.

詢問我們是否可以接受幾位 失業人士來當實習生。

But that conversation quickly spiraled into something much bigger.

但那場談話很快就轉變成 更宏大的計畫。

And soon we were working jointly to launch an at-scale,

沒多久，我們就合作推出為期 六個月的大規模計畫「Rise」，

six-month program called "Rise"

to reskill thousands of individuals from traditional declining roles

協助數千人進行技能再造，

從沒落的傳統角色 轉換到其他角色，如：

into roles such as data scientists,

資料科學家、

digital product owner and digital marketeer.

數位產品負責人，及數位行銷人員。

But ...

但是……，

As applications to our program increased,

隨著申請計畫的人數增加，

so did my nervousness.

我也越來越緊張。

Many of our applicants had been out of formal education

這個計畫的申請者有不少已經 脫離正式教育至少二十年了。

for more than 20 years.

We had Simon, a 53-year-old from the construction sector

其中一位是賽門， 五十三歲，來自營建部門，

who survived two economic crises,

曾度過兩次經濟危機，

to realize that he now wants to get into a digital career.

他發現他現在想要轉入數位職涯。

We had Hafizah,

還有哈費札，

who spent more than seven months looking for her perfect job,

她花了至少七個月的時間 去尋找心中的完美工作，

to realize that she needed new skills

才發現她需要新技能，

以脫離她在傳統媒體產業的工作領域，

to pivot away from the traditional media industry that she worked in,

which was getting impacted by technology.

而這個產業正正受到科技所衝擊。

As I spoke to many of our learners,

我和這個計畫許多學員談過之後，

it was clear to me that this was not going to be an easy transition for them.

我很清楚知道，這種轉型 對他們來說不會很容易。

So right from the first week,

因此，打從第一週起，

we focused not just on building their skill set,

我們不僅專注在 培養他們的各項技能，

but building their mindset

還要調整他們的心態，

and building their confidence in their ability to reskill

建立他們的信心，相信 自己有能力實現職涯轉換。

and make a career pivot happen.

And this is when we taught them skills

此時我們教導他們的技能包括 用第一性原理來解決問題，

such as first principles problem solving,

a strategy we consultants use to solve some of our client's difficult problems.

我們顧問會使用這種策略 來解決客戶的一些難題。

First principles problem solving is challenging assumptions

第一性原理解決問題， 就是要去挑戰假設、

to identify the real problem to be solved,

找出真正要解決的事。

接著從多個新的角度來檢視議題，

and then looking at issues from multiple fresh perspectives,

even when you may not have deep subject matter expertise to begin with,

即使你一開始可能還沒有 深入的主題專業知識。

and then distilling the core insight in a concise way.

下一步以簡潔方式提煉出核心見解。

These first principles problem solving skills would prepare our learners

這些用第一性原理來解決問題的技能，

可以協助我們的學員 在新工作領域裡，

to thrive in these unfamiliar situations they will find themselves in

即使遇上陌生的情境， 也能夠有所準備來發揮所長。

in these new job domains.

And then to teach them the digital or the technology skills,

接著，為了教他們數位或科技技能，

we had to make things very, very real and practical for our mature learners.

我們得讓這些成熟的學員 能學到非常實際實用的東西。

So we put their skills in action on real projects.

因此，我們讓他們 把技能用在實做專案中。

And this is where we invited executives from companies like Olam,

此時我們邀請了奧蘭、達能， 和新加坡航空等公司的主管

Danone and Singapore Airlines to host hackathons.

來主辦黑客松。

I still remember one of the hackathon showcases

我還記得在一場黑客松展示會上，

where our "Rise" learners

我方「Rise」的學員展示了

presented the deep user research they did,

他們所做的深度使用者研究 及他們推薦的數位 app 原型。

and the mock up of the digital app that they were recommending.

One of the client professionals got so excited and he told them,

其中一位客戶專業人士 非常興奮，告訴他們：

"This is like professional consulting work."

「這就像專業的諮詢工作。」

I sat there smiling cheek to cheek,

我坐在那裡，

面帶笑容，

because I knew that if these learners had applied for jobs,

因為我知道，如果 這些學員去應徵工作，

their applications would have been screened out even in the very first stage.

他們在第一階段就會被刷掉了。

然而，我們的學員 有超過 80% 都找到工作。

And yet, more than 80 percent of our learners found jobs.

Our friend Simon,

我們的朋友賽門，

he got hired as a digital project manager in In-Shore Tech.

他被 In-Shore Tech 聘任為數位專案經理。

And Hafiza,

至於哈費札，

she works as a digital marketing specialist

她在一間網絡安全公司 擔任數位行銷專員。

in [a] cyber security company.

Every time somebody from our program found a job,

每當我們計畫的學員找到工作， 我們感覺就像自豪的父母。

we felt like proud parents.

Such bliss, I tell you.

我可以告訴各位，這是種至喜。

But the government of Singapore had an important role to play

但，新加坡政府扮演了重要角色，

in the success of programs like "Rise."

協助像「Rise」這樣的計畫。

They created a national job database

他們創建了一個國家工作資料庫，

and they incentivized companies to hire such reskilled talent.

並獎勵企業去僱用 這類經過技能再造的人才。

They're even steering academia to transition from higher education

他們甚至在引導學術界 從高等教育轉型成終身學習。

to continuous learning.

And they have so successfully changed the narrative from fear to curiosity

他們非常成功地將大家的 看法從恐懼轉為好奇，

that in 2021 alone,

以至於單單在 2021 年，

more than 660,000 individuals

就有超過六十六萬人 以及超過兩萬四千家公司

and more than 24,000 companies

participated in their programs.

參與他們的計畫。

And if you thought Singapore was unique, we are not the only ones.

如果各位認為新加坡 是獨一無二的，並不是。

Italy, Spain, India and many other countries

義大利、西班牙、印度，

及許多其他國家都有推出 類似的技能培訓方案。

are launching similar skilling initiatives.

But beyond the role of governments,

但，除了政府的角色之外，

companies play an important part

企業在此也十分重要，

to shift this mindset from skepticism

協助將心態從質疑技能再造 轉變為樂觀其成。

to optimism for reskilling.

Take Ikea, the global furniture player.

以全球家具公司宜家為例。

In 2021,

2021 年，宜家推出他們稱為 比利的人工智慧機器人，

Ikea launched this AI bot they call Billy

to manage majority of their routine customer inquiries.

來管理他們大部分的例行客戶查詢。

But hold on a second.

但，等等，

What would happen to all those call center employees?

電訪中心的員工會如何？

Would they lose their jobs?

他們會丟掉飯碗嗎？

No.

不會。

This is where Ikea chose to take a revolutionary approach,

在這方面，宜家選擇採用了 一種革命性的方法，

and they actually ended up reskilling more than 8,500 individuals

最終他們協助了超過 八千五百人參與技能再造，

who were call center employees

從以前的電訪中心員工 轉型為室內設計顧問，

into interior design consultants to provide new,

提供新的個人化設計服務給客人。

personalized design services to their customers.

And the best part of this story

這個故事中最棒的一點

is that Ikea won the hearts and the minds

就是宜家贏得了其員工 和顧客的心和信任，

of its employees and customers,

but made an incremental sales

且單單在 2022 年，業績增長

of more than 1.4 billion dollars in 2022 alone.

就超過十四億美金。

Now ultimately beyond governments and companies,

最終，除了政府和企業，

the real change must come from all of us.

真正的改變必須來自我們所有人。

I've been trying to invest in my own skills

我一直試著投資我自己的技能，

and not worry too much about my pretty slides and AI,

且不要太擔心我漂亮的 投影片和人工智慧，

and to model the lifelong learning behavior to my six-year-old.

以身作則，示範終生學習 給我六歲的孩子當榜樣。

He has this piggy bank that we call "my learning bank"

他有個撲滿，我們稱之為 「我的學習銀行」，

to save money to learn new skills.

用來存學習新技能所需要的錢。

Very recently, we used our savings on a course for robotics for kids.

最近，我們把我們的儲蓄 用在兒童機器人課程上。

He just loves building things, I tell you.

告訴各位，他愛好打造東西。

And he was very, very excited to show off the giraffe that he had built

他非常非常興奮地炫耀 他打造的長頸鹿，

that could walk step by step.

這隻長頸鹿能一步一步行走。

And step by step is all we need to embrace the reskilling revolution.

而一步一步循序漸進， 正是我們擁抱技能再造革命所需要的。

Job evolution due to technology is just going to be this new reality

生活在這個世界，科技造成工作改變 是我們一定得要面對的新現實。

of the world we have to live in.

But we must embrace this not with fear and with skepticism,

但我們必須要擁抱它， 不帶恐懼和懷疑，

but with curiosity and optimism

而是帶著好奇和樂觀，

for building our skills again and again.

不斷地培養我們的技能。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）