Hidden Connections That Transcend Borders and Defy Stereotypes | Aparna Bharadwaj | TED

翻译人员: Jessie Jiang 校对人员: sylvia feng

I've lived and worked in some very diverse countries around the world.

我在世界上一些非常不同 的国家生活和工作过。

I was born in India, but I grew up in Iran.

我在印度出生， 但在伊朗长大。

I remember I was about eight years old, as a child in Iran,

我记得在我8岁的时候， 还是个孩子，当时在伊朗，

with my family watching the beautiful festival of Nowruz.

和我的家人一起观赏极富魅力 的诺鲁兹节（伊朗新年）的庆祝。

Nowruz is celebrated usually at night with families gathered around a bonfire.

大家一般在晚上庆祝伊朗新年 和自己的家人一起围着篝火。

They share food. They sing songs.

大家分享美食，唱唱歌。

Sometimes they even jump over the fire for good luck.

有时候还会跳过篝火 以求好运。

And I remember how deeply that reminded me of another festival called Lohri,

我记得那种场景就让我想起 另一个叫洛希的节日，

celebrated all the way over in India,

整个印度都庆祝的节日，

also with families gathered around a bonfire, sharing food,

也是家人们围着篝火， 分享美食，

singing songs together.

一起唱歌。

Even an eight-year-old child can tell

即使只有8岁，我也能感受到

how profoundly similar those two events look

这两个节日的相似之处这么多

in two sets of countries that are culturally so different.

而这两个国家的差异却是那么大。

Like a kind of hidden connection.

像是种隐藏的联系。

As an adult, I’ve spent 20 years of my life

成年之后，我花了20年时间

studying consumers all over the world.

研究世界各地的消费者。

What they feel, what they believe in

他们的感受，他们的信仰

and how they act upon those beliefs when they buy things.

以及购物时那些信念 会对他们有什么影响。

And of course, a big part of my job is to truly understand

当然了，我主要的工作就是去理解

the diversity that exists in the world.

这个世界所存在的多样性。

But maybe because of my upbringing,

可能是我出身的原因，

what truly fascinates me is when we find these hidden connections,

真正让我着迷的就是 当我们发现那些隐藏联系，

these secret similarities between people where you least expect them.

那些往往被忽视的人与人之间 的隐藏的相似之处。

Today I want to share some of that magic with you,

今天我想和大家分享一些 奇妙的隐藏联系，

bring you into my world.

让大家看看我研究的世界。

And we are going to go do some detective work

我们会一起探索

on the world's consumers together.

世界各国的消费者。

Stay with me, because I think

好好听我说，因为我觉得

there's a message of hope in here for all of us.

这里暗含了一条对我们 都有用的希望的信息。

Before we start, let's have a think

开始之前呢，我们先想一下

about how companies, businesses are organized today,

如今公司、商业活动 是依据什么组织的，

how they operate today.

是怎么运作的。

Most commonly, companies are organized by regions, subregions.

最常见的是，公司依据 区域、子区域来组织规划。

That's how supply chains, organizations are set up.

这是连锁公司， 组织机构建立的根据。

And if it's not geographies, then it's some other thumb rule.

如果不是根据地理划分， 那就是根据一些其他经验。

It could be linked to some common historic period.

可能是因为经历了共同的历史时期。

So, for example, the Commonwealth countries.

所以，比如说， 联邦国家。

It could be linked to common religious roots.

也可能是因为有相同的宗教起源。

For example, I've been a part of a lot of discussions

比如，我参与过很多有关

on the halal economy.

清真经济的讨论。

It could be something, anything

可能是一些，任何一种因素

that allows us to put the world into neat little boxes,

让我们把世界放进 一些整洁的小盒子里，

neat little clusters, that explain why people are similar or different.

一些整洁的集群里，以此来解释 人们为何相似，又为何不同。

But I realized that when you study the consumers

但我意识到 当你去研究消费者

and when you go deep,

研究的比较深入时，

it's interesting how none of that applies.

有趣的是，以上法则都不适用了。

How wrong some of that thinking can be.

有的想法真的错的离谱。

Let me show you.

我来带大家看看。

About a year ago, a team of us set out to understand

大约一年前， 我们的一组人试图搞清楚

how consumers exercise choice around the world.

消费者在世界范围内 是怎么做选择的。

In this process, we interacted with over 40,000 consumers

在这个过程中，我们与4万多名

in 18 countries around the world.

来自世界上18个国家 的消费者进行了互动。

We asked them many, many questions about their mindsets to start with.

首先，我们问了他们非常非常多 与他们思维模式有关的问题。

So, for example, your worldview, your personal philosophy.

比如，你的世界观， 你个人信奉的哲学。

Do you feel optimistic? Do you have a love for technology?

你是乐观主义吗？ 你是否热衷科技？

Do you care about peer approval? Things like that.

你在意同龄人的看法么？ 类似这些问题。

But we also tried to study some very specific consumer behavior.

但我们也努力研究 一些特定的消费者行为。

So, for example, what do you look for when you buy a snack

比如，你买零食小吃 的时候会怎么选择？

or you buy a beverage or luxury products?

买饮品或者奢侈品的时候怎么选择？

What needs are you trying to fulfill?

你想满足的是哪方面需求？

As you can imagine, there was a ton of data

大家可以想象到， 对我们这些研究怪人来说

for the geek insiders to go crazy with, right?

真是有一大堆的数据，对吧？

I love that type of data.

我很热衷这些数据。

So anyway, we take all that data, and we start to draw correlations.

不管怎么说吧，我们把数据整合， 开始做关联图。

We start running all these analyses.

我们开始做各种分析。

And we come up with this kind of a proximity analysis.

然后我们得出了这种 相似性分析图表。

Quite simply, every green dot represents people of a particular country.

很简单，每个绿点代表着 某特定国家的人群。

The closer the green dot is to the map in the middle,

绿点距离中间的国家地图越近，

the more similar the mindsets are for those two sets of countries.

这两个国家的人 思维模式就越相似。

And the further the dot from the map,

距离国家地图越远的点，

the more diverse the mindsets for those countries.

说明这些国家的人们 思维模式差异越大。

It's as simple as that.

就是这么简单。

So of course, when you do this for the US,

当然，拿美国来说的话，

you can see that the Canadians, the people of the UK and the Australians

大家可以看到加拿大人，英国人 和澳大利亚人

are very similar in mindsets to the Americans.

和美国人的思维模式很相似。

Now we had been studying consumers for a long time

目前我们研究消费者已经很长时间了

and the whole team fully expected

整个团队都很期待

that we were going to see a lot of clusters come through,

能看到很多的集群

based on some of those thumb rules that I talked about earlier.

是基于刚刚讲过的那些经验和规则。

So imagine our surprise.

所以可以想象到我们有多惊讶。

We run this data and we find very little clustering

我们分析数据 然后发现几乎没有集群

based on any of those thumb rules.

是依据那些经验法则的 任何一条形成的。

We didn't, for example, find an Asian culture cluster.

比如，我们没有发现亚洲文化集群。

We didn't find a European cluster.

也没有发现欧洲文化集群。

Nothing like it.

一点都不一样。

In fact, we found 90-percent correlation between the Americans and the Australians.

事实上，我们在美国人和 澳大利人身上发现了90%的相似。

Two sets of people on the literal opposite ends of the world.

这可是世界上位于 相反两端的两个人群。

Can you imagine that? How amazing is that?

大家可以想象吗？ 多令人震惊啊？

And this is a big deal, by the way,

我想说，这可是件大事，

because businesses, companies operate, govern themselves,

因为企业、公司的自行运作和管理，

entirely on the basis of these clusters that we found didn't even exist.

都完全是基于压根儿不存在的集群。

And believe me, we tested a bunch of thumb rules.

相信我，我们测试了 一堆经验法则。

And the interesting part was

有趣的是

that it was not as if you can find new thumb rules

并不是你能找到新的经验法则

to replace the old ones that don't work.

来取代无效的旧的经验法则。

The answer was kind of technical, actually.

答案事实上挺专业。

It was: just don't do it.

就是：别（按经验）做。

Resist the urge to find any kind of thumb rules to explain the world.

不要去用任何经验法则 来解释世界上这些事。

These are only propagating stereotypes.

这都是些传播开来的模式化思想。

So then we said, OK, if all these thumb rules don't work,

那么我们说，好吧， 如果这些经验法则不能用，

how do you make sense of all the diversity that we see around us?

我们怎么去理解身边的这些多样性？

How do we put some patterns? How do we understand it?

我们该怎么建立模式？ 我们怎么理解多样性？

So then we started to study the specific consumer behavior I talked about.

所以接着我们开始研究 刚刚我提到的特定的消费者行为。

What do you look for when you buy insurance?

买保险的时候 你会考虑什么？

What do you need when you buy beverages?

买饮料的时候你需要的是什么？

When you buy apparel, cars, things like that?

买衣服，车子， 还有其他东西的时候呢？

And here we found something that was even more profound, I think.

我想，我们发现了一些 意义更深刻的东西。

Let me show you.

我给大家展示一下。

So this time I'm using China as the base market.

这次我用中国作为基准市场。

Again, as before, green dots, overall mindsets.

这次和刚才一样， 绿色的点，代表人群的思维模式。

Now you can see immediately when you see this chart

现在大家可以从图表里立刻看出

that the Chinese are such a unique group of consumers.

中国人是如此与众不同的 一个消费群体。

The inner circle is empty.

内部的一圈是空的。

The second circle is also empty.

第二圈也是空的。

Then you start to see India, Mexico, a couple of other markets.

然后大家可以看到印度、墨西哥， 等其他的市场。

But the correlation shows not a lot of similarity

但是交互关系展示出的相似性并不多

between the Chinese and those group of customers.

在中国和其他消费者群体之间。

So clearly, China stands apart.

所以很明显，中国与众不同。

Very unique group of consumers.

是非常独特的消费者群体。

But we notice Japan on the top left here.

但我们注意左上方的日本。

The Japanese are so diverse from the Chinese.

日本和中国是如此不同。

And yet I know so many businesses that put Japan and China

而据我所知很多企业都把日本和中国

as neighboring countries in the North Asia cluster.

一同作为邻国 而放进亚洲北部集群里。

That's so common.

这种情况太常见了。

It's so wrong.

但是这是错误的。

Anyway, I digress. I get very excited with this stuff.

不管怎么说，我有点偏题。 我对这种事总是感到兴奋。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So then, coming back to the point,

那么，回到这一点，

on top of it, we overlaid these black dots.

在绿点这一层上， 我们覆盖了黑色的点。

The black dots are now the needs when you snack.

这些黑点现在代表 买零食小吃时候的需求。

So what motivates you when you reach out for a snack?

是什么让你想去吃零食小吃?

That's the black dots.

这些黑点就代表这个。

And when we did that and we studied it, we found a hidden connection.

我们那么做并且研究了一下， 并发现了隐藏的联系。

I don't know if you can already see it, but I'm going to circle it for you.

不知道大家是不是已经看出来了， 但我要为各位圈出来。

We found that the Indonesians,

我们发现印度尼西亚，

the Saudi Arabians and consumers of the UAE

沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的消费者

snack in very similar ways to the Chinese.

和中国消费者吃零食小吃的 动机很相似。

Let's think about it for a second.

我们思考一会。

These are Muslim countries.

这些是穆斯林国家。

Very different culture, very different background to the Chinese.

文化和背景与中国完全不一样。

And yet they snack is similar ways.

而他们吃零食的动机很相似。

How cool is that? Right?

很有趣，不是吗？

And similar how?

怎么相似呢？

Well, for first, in all of these countries,

那么首先，在所有这些国家，

snacking is a moment of social indulgence.

吃零食是社交的一部分。

It's something you do as a group.

是一群人做的事。

So people snack in groups, they share the snacks.

大家一起吃，彼此分享零食小吃。

They often buy a hot snack that they purchase from a hawker or a food court.

大家通常从小商小贩或者美食街 买来热乎乎的小吃。

Somebody prepares it fresh for them.

或其他人准备的现做的小吃。

The quality is not guaranteed. It's very important.

质量可能没啥保证。 这很重要。

They snack in similar ways.

他们吃零食小吃的方式很相似。

In contrast, the Americans, over on the top left,

相反，美国人，在左上方这里，

snack very differently.

吃零食小吃就完全不同。

Americans snack alone.

美国人喜欢一个人。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

They don't share their snacks.

他们不做分享。

It's often at their desk in a package,

通常是坐在桌边， 零食小吃在包装袋里，

very different from the rest of the countries.

和其他这些国家非常不同。

Now I wonder, do the Chinese and the Indonesians know

那我很好奇，中国人和印尼人知道

that they snack similarly?

他们吃零食小吃的方式很像吗？

I seriously doubt that.

我觉得他们不知道。

But what a beautifully human thing to know, right?

但这是很奇妙的关于人类的一件事， 对吧？

And valuable, too.

也很有价值。

Imagine what a Chinese snacking company can do with this insight.

想象一下如果中国的零食公司 知道这一点，可以做什么。

A lot, right?

可以做很多啊，是吧？

Let's take you to another one.

我再给大家看一个。

I'll show you another one.

这是另一个。

Still staying with China.

还是以中国作为基准市场。

The green dots are still the mindsets,

绿点依然代表思维模式，

but this time the black dots are how you buy cars,

但这次黑点代表买车的动机，

what you look for when you buy an automotive product.

买汽车产品的时候你的需求是什么。

Now again, I guess you guys are getting better with this now.

那我相信大家现在 对这个图表很熟悉了。

But here's the hidden connections.

但还是有隐藏联系。

We found -- and I'll name a few countries,

我们发现——我会提到一些国家，

there's quite a few similar to China, but two that I'll call out.

有很多都和中国相似， 但是我要单独提两个。

South Africans and Nigerians buy cars with similar motivations as the Chinese.

南非和尼日利亚消费者买车 的动机和中国消费者很相似。

In all these countries, your car, your ride, is a status symbol.

在所有这些国家， 你的车，你的座驾，是地位的象征。

It tells your peer group who you are.

它向你的同辈群体 展示你的身份地位。

So your car needs to show you’ve arrived in life,

所以你的车能显示出 你已经成功了，

and it's a very external point of influence.

这是种影响力的外在体现。

What will others think if I drive this particular vehicle?

如果我开某种车，其他人会怎么想？

In contrast, look at the Germans at the bottom.

相反的，看看位于底部的德国人。

Very different, very internal, very personal.

非常不一样， 非常关注内心，关注私人。

Your car has to be fun to drive.

这车开起来得好玩。

That's very, very important.

这非常非常重要。

And who blames them, right? With those beautiful autobahns.

这也不能怪他们啊对吧？ 他们有漂亮的高速路。

Lovely roads, no speed limits.

街道又可爱，还没限速。

Of course you want your car to be a fun ride, right?

你肯定想要开车是有趣的啊，对吧？

But wait, look at the French now.

但是等一下，现在来看看法国。

The French are very different from the Germans.

法国和德国又不一样了。

They want their cars to be reliable to navigate narrow roads.

他们需要车能方便穿过狭窄路段。

So there you have it.

那现在大家都看到了。

Two countries, France and Germany, neighboring countries, European countries,

两个国家，法国和德国， 邻国，都是欧洲国家，

very different motivations.

动机完全不同。

And then a couple of African countries

那还有一些非洲国家

similar to the Chinese in the way they buy cars.

在买车的时候和中国消费者很像。

No clustering, no business group will ever put these countries together.

没有一个集群划分，或者企业集团 会把这些国家放在一起。

But maybe a road trip from Beijing to Lagos is just going to do the trick.

不过可能从北京开车到拉各斯 走一趟就能明白了。

Who knows?

谁知道呢？

Anyway, one more, last one.

不管怎么说，还有一个， 是最后一个。

Indulge me, just to rub it in.

请允许我再提一下这个。

So here's another one. We're coming back to the US this time.

这是另一个。

这次再拿美国作为基准市场。

Again, green is the mindset,

依然，绿点代表思维模式，

but the black this time is how you buy clothing, apparel.

但这次黑点代表买服装。

Now remember we talked about how the Americans and the Canadians

还记得刚刚我们说到了 美国人和加拿大人

are very similar in mindsets earlier?

思维模式很像吧？

And we also talked about, you know -- of course,

我们还说到了 你知道——肯定的，

they are closely connected neighbors as well.

他们也是两个邻国。

Now, however, they don’t buy apparel the same way.

但是，他们买衣服的思维却不一样。

The Americans buy things that are on-trend.

美国消费者买东西买的是流行。

They're looking to indulge.

他们寻求一种放纵。

The Canadians look for utility.

加拿大消费者需要实用。

They are looking for apparel that can be good for adventure,

他们买的衣服需要适合去探险，

and a love of outdoor sports is critical here.

关键在于他们热爱户外运动。

But controversially, the Russians buy apparel

但是有争议的是， 俄国消费者买衣服

in very similar way to the Americans,

和美国消费者思维很像，

also looking for something that’s on-trend,

也是买流行、时髦的衣服，

also looking to indulge.

也是寻求一种放纵。

Now to say that there've been tensions between these two countries

那么说两国之间关系一向紧张

is a serious understatement, right?

就非常片面了，是吧？

And yet they have this one beautiful connection.

他们有这一点非常美妙的联系。

They have one thing in common.

他们有一点是相似的。

What a lovely idea. Right?

这个想法很奇妙。是不是？

Now I could go on and on.

那我还有很多很多例子。

I showed you just a few examples today.

今天只给大家看了几个。

But we found this over and over again.

但我们一次次的发现了这点。

Category by category.

按类别分类。

Country pair by country pair.

一个国家对应一个国家。

We saw this in all kinds of things,

我们在各方面都看到了这一点，

like luxury, beverages, insurance, you name it.

比如奢侈品，饮料， 保险，你随便说。

We found these connections everywhere.

到处都能发现这些联系。

And I don't mean any of this to belittle the massive, beautiful diversity

我不是说这些相似点能 遮盖掉大量美妙的

that we see in consumers around us.

在我们身边的消费者身上 体现出的多样性。

That's exactly why consumers are such an important study

这正是为什么消费者研究 如此重要

for people like me.

对我们这些人来说。

But I think this work shows that mankind is connected

但我想，这个研究表明 人类是相通的

in a profound way that we never imagined.

在某个我们从没想过 的更深的层次上。

It also shows that these connections defy any stereotypes

研究也说明这些联系 能抵消任何

that you and I or businesses can come up with.

你、我或是企业所想出来 的模式化思想。

These are patterns where you least expect them.

这些是大家想不到的模式。

And in these connections, of course, there are commercial opportunities

当然，在这些联系里有商机

for marketeers who can embrace this insight.

销售者可以利用这些商机。

Of course, it's commercially valuable.

理所当然，这是有商业价值的。

But today, I want to go a step further, if you permit me.

但是今天，请允许我再进一步说。

I think in these connections,

我认为在这些联系里，

there's also a message of hope for the world.

包含着给世界的有关希望的信条。

We live in a world that has globalized for more than four decades,

我们所生活的世界 已经经历了40多年的全球化，

and yet we're getting torn apart, shaped by the geopolitics of our time.

但是我们却因这个时代 的地缘政治而日渐分崩离析。

Countries are falling into blocs.

国家分成不同阵营。

Fault lines are appearing everywhere.

断层线无处不在。

I'm not a specialist in geopolitics.

我不是地缘政治专家。

I'm just a student of the consumer.

我只是消费者研究的学生。

But when I look at this data and I think about it,

但是当我看到这些数据 然后思考，

if only people knew that we are similar in the most profound ways

要是人们知道我们在很多 更隐蔽深刻的层面是相似的

in some of our most everyday activities,

在很多日常活动中，

in the way we sip a cup of coffee,

比如喝一杯咖啡，

taste a snack, try on a new outfit or test drive a car,

吃零食小吃，试穿新衣服 或者试驾新车，

how beautiful would that be?

那该有多美好啊？

Maybe if we knew that,

可能如果我们知道，

we would also learn to understand and empathize with each other.

我们就能学着了解彼此， 彼此共情。

It's a lovely thought to reflect on maybe with your next cup of coffee.

可能各位下次喝咖啡的时候 可以思考一下这个不错的想法。

Thank you so much.

非常感谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）