How Do We Get the World Off Fossil Fuels Quickly and Fairly? | TED Countdown Dilemma Series

翻译人员: Xiaoqing NI 校对人员: sylvia feng

Catherine Abreu: We know with certainty that fossil fuels need to be phased out.

凯瑟琳·阿布鲁： 我们很清楚化石燃料要逐步淘汰

There's really no question in the science at this point.

这点在科学上是毫无疑问的

Tessa Khan: The arguments for transitioning away from fossil fuels

特莎·汗： 关于快速淘汰化石能源的讨论

at speed

have never been more compelling.

一直以来都十分引人注目

I think the responsibilities of governments

我认为，在加速能源结构转变方面

to accelerate that transition have never been so acute.

政府担负着前所未有的重大责任

Laurence Tubiana: It has to be quite radical.

劳伦斯·图比亚纳： 这种转变必须是彻底的

It could have been done slowly.

曾经我们还有徐徐图之的机会

But now we are running against time,

但现在我们要和时间赛跑

and the climate impacts are now not for tomorrow.

气候变化的影响也并非未来才会显现

It's for today.

而是迫在眉睫

Hisham Mundol: The role of fossil fuels between now and 2050

希山·蒙多尔：从现在到2050年，

is that of a necessary evil.

石油扮演的角色 虽不受欢迎，但必不可少

Hongqiao Liu: So we have a very complicated relationship with fossil fuels

刘虹桥：所以目前，

我们和化石燃料 的关系非常复杂

at the moment.

它就像是你的前任，你很想摆脱他们

It's like your ex-partner, you want to get rid of them,

but they stick around.

但他们却阴魂不散

Rebekah Shirley: In Africa, for instance, where I live, it's a bit more complicated.

瑞贝卡·雪莉：比如说， 在我居住的非洲，情况会更复杂一些

Vijaya Ramachandran: I don't think it's fair to poor countries

维加亚·拉玛钱德兰： 贫穷国家必须只用可再生能源

to say you have to be renewable only,

富裕国家却大量使用 石油、煤炭和天然气

when the rich countries are doubling down on oil, coal and gas.

我认为这是不公平的

HL: We need to debate.

刘虹桥： 我们需要讨论

We need we need that exchange.

我们需要交流

We need to understand each other's views

我们要理解彼此的观点

and to start with the concept of the dilemma that we’re facing.

并从了解我们所面临的困境开始

Zoë Knight: In my mind, the biggest obstacle is the speed of collaboration.

佐伊·奈特：我认为， 最大的障碍是合作的速度

We speak at cross-purposes with each other.

我们交谈时，其实怀着不同目的

Mary Robinson: We've got to deal with this much more quickly than we're doing.

玛丽·罗宾森： 我们必须加快速度来处理这件事

How do we raise the temperature?

我们要怎样炒热气氛？

How do we increase the energy for action, the passion for action,

我们要怎样增加干劲与热情？

the heartfelt need for action which will move us?

怎样受到触动， 发自内心地开展行动？

[TED Countdown]

[TED倒计时栏目]

[Dilemma Series]

[困境系列]

[How do we move from fossil fuels to clean energy quickly and fairly?]

[如何快速且公平地完成 从化石能源到清洁能源的转型？]

Lindsay Levin: We're standing at a crucial crossroads in history.

林赛·莱文：我们正处于 历史上关键的十字路口

We live in a world where our energy system is overwhelmingly dependent

我们世界的能源系统仍极大程度上

依赖于化石燃料

on burning fossil fuels.

What are the viable pathways to a clean and safe future,

通向安全无污染的未来的 可行路径究竟是什么样的？

and how do we collectively navigate this transition?

我们又应该如何 共同面对这一转变？

I'm Lindsay Levin, co-founder of Countdown,

我是林赛·莱文， 倒计时栏目的联合创始人

and this is the second installment of our Dilemma Series.

这是困境系列的第二集

We know that credible people, including many of you,

我知道许多可靠的人们， 包括你们中的很多人

disagree in some pretty fundamental ways on this topic,

对于气候挑战的核心话题

在一些相当基本的方面上存在分歧

the core of the climate challenge.

Recently at the Barbican Centre in London, we brought together experts,

最近在伦敦巴比肯艺术中心

我们召集了气候领域的专家、 活动家以及权威人士

activists and leading voices in the climate space to speak,

相互交流、倾听并合作， 探讨如何在存在分歧的情况下

listen and work together as we figure out how to make progress

despite our differences.

取得进展

While the need to get off fossil fuels is straightforward and urgent,

虽然摆脱化石燃料的需求 是如此明了而紧迫

the pathway to doing it equitably is anything but.

但能够使其绝对公平 的方法却仍不明朗

Here's TED science curator David Biello

接下来TED科学负责人 大卫·比尔洛

to frame the basic ideas behind this dilemma.

将阐述这一困境背后的基本思想

David Biello: Today, more than 80 percent of modern energy

大卫·比尔洛： 如今，超过80％的现代能源

comes from burning fossil fuels.

来自于燃烧化石燃料

That means more than 40 billion metric tons,

这意味着每年有超过 400亿吨的二氧化碳

that's 40 gigatons, of CO2 gets dumped in the air each year.

排放到大气中

And that number is growing.

并且这个数字还在增长

At the same time,

与此同时

hundreds of millions of people live with limited or no access

数亿人生活在能源受限

或者根本没有现代能源的地区

to modern energy at all.

That means they have contributed almost nothing

这意味着他们几乎没有产生

to the greenhouse gas pollution causing the climate crisis.

导致气候危机的温室气体

So do we stop fossil fuel exploration and production entirely?

那么我们是否应该完全停止 开采与生产化石燃料呢？

Do we encourage it for certain communities but not others?

这一倡议是否只针对特定地区？

And if so, where?

如果是这样，那又是哪些地区呢？

How do we actually get renewables to scale and how do we pay for it all?

我们如何才能真正实现 可再生能源的规模化？

我们又应如何为这一切买单?

These questions are incredibly complex,

这些问题非常复杂

but the takeaway is clear.

但结论很明确

We need to eliminate fossil fuels

我们需要淘汰化石燃料

and use what we must to ensure that everyone benefits.

并且必须确保所有人都能受益

Let's start with some facts and figures about where we are today.

让我们从一些事实和数据开始， 弄清楚如今我们所处的境况

Here's Adair Turner.

以下是阿代尔·特纳的讲话

Adair Turner: The International Panel on Climate Change estimated in 2018

阿代尔·特纳：国际气候 变化专门委员会在2018年预估

that if we are to have even a 50-percent chance

即使我们只想要保持50%的概率

of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees centigrade,

将全球变暖限制在1.5摄氏度以内

we cannot emit more than 500 gigatons of CO2 between 2020 and 2050.

我们在2020年到2050年间 的二氧化碳排放量

也不能超过5000亿吨

But actually, we're two years into that 30-year period.

但实际上，我们已经走过了 这30年中的2年

We've been running at 40 gigatons per year,

而我们每年都排放了约 400亿吨的二氧化碳

so we've only got 420 gigatons left.

所以我们只剩4200亿吨的排放额度

That 420 gigatons would be emitted

排放4200吨的二氧化碳

if we burnt 70 billion tons of coal

也就是燃烧700亿吨煤

plus 65 trillion cubic meters of gas

加上65万亿立方米天然气

plus 350 billion barrels of oil.

外加3500亿桶石油

But at the current rate we will have burnt all of that in 12 years.

但按照现在的速度， 只需12年就能把这些全燃尽了

We have got to find a way of leaving the vast majority of coal, oil and gas

我们必须找到一种方法， 把绝大多数的煤炭、石油和天然气

in the ground,

留在地下

even if it is in someone's interest to dig it or drill it up.

哪怕这有损某些人的利益

So what should we do?

所以我们应该怎么做？

In one area, the answer is clear.

至少在某一方面，答案是很明确的

Renewable is now a cheaper way to produce electricity than coal

如今，可再生能源 几乎在世界上所有的国家中

in almost all countries of the world,

都是比煤炭更实惠的产电方式

so we should build no more coal electricity plants,

所以我们应该停止建造新 的煤电厂和煤矿

no more coal mines.

And we should not invest anything in the extension of existing coal mines.

并且我们不应该再投资 扩大现有的煤矿

For gas and oil, it is a bit trickier.

至于天然气和石油，这就有点棘手了

International Energy Agency suggests a distinction.

国际能源机构建议做出区分

It says that we should invest nothing in exploration for

他们提议我们应不再投资于

or production from new oil and gas fields,

新油气田的勘探或生产

but that it’s OK to invest something

但仍可以投入现有油气田的生产

to maintain production from existing fields.

But there are some people who would challenge

但是有些人会质疑

the morality of that distinction,

这种区分的道德性

because if there's an absolute limit to how much gas we can safely burn,

因为如果真的有一个 燃耗天然气的绝对安全上限

it's not clear that squeezing a little bit more out of the North Sea

那么从北海多开采一点天然气

is more acceptable than developing a new gas field

就比在一个非洲国家 开采一个新的气田

in an African country

更合理吗？

whose past cumulative per capita emissions

毕竟一个非洲国家过去 的累计人均排放量

have been a tiny fraction of the UK's.

只是英国的一个零头而已

We now have the technologies

我们现有的技术

to dramatically reduce the demand for fossil fuels,

可以大幅减少对化石燃料的需求

and we should deploy them as rapidly as possible.

我们应该尽快部署并使用这些技术

That means ensuring that electricity systems in every developed country

也就意味着要确保 每个发达国家的电力系统

get to zero emissions by 2035 at the very latest

最迟在2035年 实现零排放，最好更早

and ideally earlier, with no coal

要停止使用煤炭

and only a very, very small role for unabated gas.

且只使用很少量的天然气

We should be aiming to reduce coal demand 90 percent by 2050,

我们应该努力在2050年 达成以下目标：煤炭需求减少90%

oil demand at least 75 percent

石油需求至少减少75%

and gas demand by well over 50 percent.

以及天然气需求减少50%以上

And we are running out of time to do it fast enough.

但我们快没时间了

LL: Those are some big reduction targets, and we need to meet them.

林赛·莱文：这些都是很大 的减排目标，但我们需要实现

But as we move there,

可即便我们做到了

we'll still be using some fossil fuels to meet energy demands.

我们也仍将使用一些化石燃料 以满足能量供应

How do we do that while accelerating our transition to renewables?

我们应该如何在加速 向可再生能源转变的同时

处理这个问题呢？

Some people think we can work with the fossil fuel industry

一些人认为我们可以 与化石燃料产业一起探讨出路

and want to pressure it to do better.

并向迫使该产业做出转变

Others propose more radical departures.

其他人则更激进， 认为应该彻底摒弃这类能源

Here are a few opinions on this issue, starting with Jérôme Schmitt,

以下是关于这个问题的一些观点， 首先是杰罗姆·施密特

a former oil industry executive who is now a senior fellow

他曾是石油行业高管

如今是哥伦比亚 可持续投资中心的高级研究员

at the Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment.

Jérôme Schmitt: I'm not aware of any net-zero scenario compliant

杰罗姆·施密特： 如果到2040年或2050年

with 1.5 degree or two degree

要将全球气温升高控制在1.5或2度

that does not involve even a little bit of fossil fuel

我不知道有什么净零排放方案

能不涉及任何化石燃料

by 2040 or 2050,

especially for the developing part of the world.

特别是在发展中国家和地区

Therefore, some people will need to have an all-in understanding

因此，一些人需要对能源系统

有一个全面的了解

of the energy system

and be able to manage the complexity of producing

并且能够掌握

一边为消费人群和国家提供清洁能源

and supplying to customers and to countries

clean energy on one side and less and less fossil fuel on the other side

一边减少化石能源供应的复杂体系

and concentrate the fossil fuel supply and demand

将化石能源的供需集中到

on the absolute necessary means and usage

亟需的方式和用途上来

and increase progressively the shift from one to the other.

并快速完成从化石能源 到清洁能源的转换

Those who have the competency today to manage this complexity

如今，有实力掌握这一复杂系统

and the balance sheet

并实现盈利的

is still the oil and gas industry,

仍然还是石油、天然气产业

whether we like it or not.

尽管我们并不乐见这一结果

So I would take the oil and gas industry

所以，我把石油、 天然气产业看做一个机会

as an opportunity to go faster,

一个能够帮助我们

to make it right better than we would do it without them.

更快、更好地完成转型的机会

But if it doesn't prove possible

但如果事实证明

because the oil and gas industry doesn't shift and doesn't adapt,

石油、天然气产业难以转变升级

we must do without.

我们也必须淘汰它们

Ramez Naam: Oil and gas companies have to realize --

拉梅兹·纳姆： 石油、天然气公司需要意识到——

they don't always, but they really should realize --

他们一般意识不到， 但他们应该知道——

the writing is on the wall.

情况已经很不妙了

We're spending close to twice as much on clean energy

我们在清洁能源的基础设施上花的钱

as we are on fossil fuel infrastructure already,

已经接近化石燃料的两倍

and that gap is just going to widen and widen.

而这个差距还在不断扩大

So I think if we can pivot those companies, that industry,

所以，如果我们 能让这些公司，这个行业

into working on a clean future, it's a good thing.

转向清洁能源，这会是件好事

But we shouldn't have illusions that it's going to happen by itself.

但是我们不应该心存幻想， 觉得它们自己就会完成这种转变

The pivot that has happened has been because companies have seen

之所以我们目前有如此变化

是因为这些公司明白未来 是清洁能源的天下

that the future is clean.

And so a combination of continuing to push on policy,

所以，持续推进政策转变

on citizen advocacy

推进公众倡议

and on driving for the technologies that disrupt fossil fuels

以及推进化石能源转型技术

is what will cause those large, entrenched fossil fuel companies

这三者相结合，才能让扎根多年 的大型化石燃料企业

to pivot towards the clean future.

转向发展清洁能源

Tzeporah Berman: We're living the last gasp of the fossil fuel industry,

采波拉·波尔曼：在这个时代， 化石燃料产业在苟延残喘

and they're doing everything they can to weaken climate policy

所以它们用尽一切办法 来削弱气候政策

and hold on to the market

保住市场份额

because they know renewables are cheaper.

因为他们知道可再生能源更便宜

MR: There was a great opportunity to move with all the skills

玛丽·罗宾森： 曾经我们有机会

借鉴化石燃料产业 多年以来的经验技术

that the fossil fuel industry has built up over the years,

convert over to clean energy.

来推动清洁能源发展

That would have been a wonderful moment.

那该是多好的事啊

If that had happened, things would be very different.

如果能够成功，情况就会非常不同

We don’t have the time now to get into a long, transition-y kind of discourse,

我们现在没有时间 来进行关于转型的长篇大论了

which is what most of them seem to want.

但这正是他们大多数人有意为之的

They lack the urgency of now in their talk.

他们的言论缺乏对紧迫性的认识

DB: As you can see, there's a lot of skepticism

大卫·比尔洛：我们能看到， 鉴于化石燃料产业曾经的欺骗行为

about the fossil fuel industry based on its history of deception.

很多人都对他们持怀疑态度

Here's well-known climate activist Luisa Neubauer,

以下是著名气候活动家 路易莎·纽鲍尔的演讲

urging us not to believe everything we hear.

她会告诉我们：耳听为虚

Luisa Neubauer: People, for instance, call the climate crisis manmade.

路易莎·纽鲍尔：比如说， 人们认为气候危机是人为因素造成的

当然，人类活动确实有一定影响

And while there were indeed humans behind it,

it's much less manmade and much more fossil-fuel-made.

但我们更应该说 是化石燃料因素造成的

It's made possible by the exploitation of coal, oil and gas

是由于煤、石油和天然气的开采

and the profit-driven economic systems behind it.

以及它们背后的以盈利为目 的的经济体系造成的

Calling the climate crisis manmade implies it's an accident of human nature,

说气候危机是由于人为因素，意味着 这是人类的自然属性所导致的事故

whereas it's actually a relatively small group of people

但实际上，需要为此负责 的只是一小部分人

and just a few places around the world:

和世界上很少几个地区

the fossil fuel industries,

也就是化石燃料产业

their marketing and their political supporters.

相关市场活动及其政策支持者

The fossil fuel industry itself is also a powerhouse of fairy tales.

化石燃料产业本身也在编造故事

Fifty years ago,

50年前

they knew that their business would lead us into a climate disaster.

他们就知道这一产业会导致气候灾难

They denied their own climate science that they did themselves,

他们否认了他们自己所做的气候研究

and by that,

也正因此

they stole our very first historic chance to act from us.

他们偷走了我们最初 的采取行动的机会

So now, for many lives, it's already too late.

所以现在，对于很多生命来说， 一切都太迟了

And this time they present themselves as part of the solution.

此刻，他们又摇身一变， 表现自己是解决方案的一部分

They call it transition.

他们把这叫做“转型”

They promise innovation, they speak of green growth.

他们承诺做出创新，谈论绿色增长

And it sounds wonderful.

听起来很不错

It is powerful, too.

也很有力

I would like to believe that, too.

我也想相信

But I cannot.

但我做不到

We do not have time for any more delay.

我们没有时间拖延了

So whoever tells us that they will just need some more time,

所以，那些说他们只是 需要一点时间的人

does not understand the very basic logic of the crisis we are in.

根本不理解我们面临 的危机的基本逻辑

Back in Hamburg, when I was in school,

在我还在汉堡上学的时候

we could get 90 minutes to finish a math exam.

数学考试有90分钟

The fossil fuel industry is, in a way, taking that very exam right now.

化石燃料产业 现在也正在接受一场考试

But instead of 90 minutes,

但考试时间不是90分钟

they tell us they will finish in nine years.

他们要9年

Back in school,

在学校

that attitude would have gotten me failing my assignments.

如果我是这种态度， 那我考试就会不及格

If fossil fuel industries don't listen

如果在公众和科学研究 说要淘汰化石燃料的时候

when people and science tell them to get out of fossil fuels,

化石燃料产业没有听从这一要求

they should not be listened to

那么当他们再跟我们编造故事

when they tell us more fairy tales about wanting to be part of the solution.

说想要成为解决方案的一部分时， 也没有人会相信他们了

If fossil fuel industries get to make the rules

如果是由化石燃料产业来制定

about the transition we so desperately need,

我们所急需的转型规则

we will not get that transition.

那我们就不可能真的转型成功

LL: The question

林赛·莱文： 关于是否要扩大化石燃料使用规模的问题

of whether there should be any new expansion of fossil fuels

is hotly contested,

一直处于激烈争论之中

and there are passionate points of view on both sides.

正反双方都提出了很多观点

With a powerful perspective

以下是关于在发展中国家 禁用化石燃料的不公平性的有力观点

on the injustice of banning fossil fuels in developing countries,

here's economist Vijaya Ramachandran.

来自经济学家维加亚·拉马钱德兰

VR: The average Nigerian consumes

维加亚·拉马钱德兰： 每个尼日利亚人每年消耗约133度电

about 133 kilowatt hours of electricity a year.

What the average American consumes in four days.

而这只是美国人4天的平均消耗量

In Nepal, that number is 231 kilowatt hours.

在尼泊尔，这一数字是231度

In Haiti, it's only 37.

在海地，只有37度

So what does all of this mean for real people?

放到真实的生活中， 这意味着什么呢？

It means that they might have a few lights at home or a small fan,

意味着家里只有几盏灯， 或者一架小电扇

but no refrigerator, no water heater, no safe cookstove.

但没有冰箱，没有热水壶和安全炉

It means that poor people stay poor.

意味着穷人只能陷于穷困

Now let's look at climate change.

现在我们来看看气候变化

Poor people did not create the carbon emissions

穷人并没有产生 导致气候变化的碳排放

that have caused climate change.

The 64 poorest countries in the world

全世界最穷的64个国家 产生的碳排放

account for less than five percent of annual carbon emissions.

只占世界年碳排放量的不到5%

Even India, often perceived as a climate villain,

就算是有着“气候恶徒”之名的印度

adds about seven percent.

也只占约7%

Poor people are not to blame.

穷人不应该承担这份罪名

Germany's coal plants emit four times more carbon

德国煤电厂的碳排放量

是巴基斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、 老挝和孟加拉国排放量总和的四倍

than Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Lao and Bangladesh combined.

Yes, energy, poverty and climate change are intertwined,

是的，能源、贫困 和气候变化是彼此相关的

but not in the way most people think.

但这种关联与大多数人的想法大相径庭

Most people think that poor countries need to moderate their energy use

大多数人认为，穷国要减少能源使用量

to address climate change.

来应对气候变化

The reality for poor people in these countries

而现实是，这些国家的穷人

is that they need a lot more energy to adapt to climate change.

需要更多能源来适应气候变化

As natural disasters get worse,

由于自然灾害危害渐增

they will need more concrete and steel

他们需要更多混凝土和钢筋

to build resilient homes and schools and roads.

来修建牢固的房屋、学校和道路

As temperatures rise, they'll need air conditioning

由于气温上升，他们需要空调

and cold storage for food and medicines.

和储藏食物、药物的冷藏设备

As droughts become more common,

由于干旱越来越普遍

they'll need fertilizer, pumped irrigation, desalination.

他们需要化肥、灌溉水泵 和海水淡化装置

All of these responses to climate change

所有这些应对气候变化的措施

are going to require a lot more energy.

都需要很多能源

So the good news

好消息是

is that we don't need to fear this high-energy future for poor people.

尽管穷人未来需要大量能源， 但我们不需要害怕

All of this energy that they will likely need

所有这些他们需要的能源

will come from low-carbon sources to a great extent.

都在很大程度上由低碳方式产生

The abundance of wind, solar,

在非洲和亚洲

geothermal and hydropower in Africa and Asia

风能、太阳能、 地热能和水能都很丰富

means that a lot of the energy that we are going to see

这意味着我们未来使用的能源

will not likely increase carbon emissions very much.

不会过多增加碳排放

So how can the US and Europe be smarter about ending energy poverty

那么，美国和欧盟要怎样明智应对

and addressing climate change?

能源贫困和气候变化呢？

First of all, this rich-world hypocrisy

首先，要终结这种富裕国家奉行的

of more fossil fuels for me, but not for thee, must end.

“我可以多用化石能源， 但是你不能用”的伪善说辞

Governments in poor countries must be able to pursue a range of energy sources.

贫困国家政府必须要 掌握一系列的能源资源

Renewables will likely be the lion's share,

可再生能源很可能占比最大

but there will be some fossil fuels in the mix.

但化石能源也要有一席之地

Natural gas, for example, is abundant in Africa.

比如，在非洲，天然气储量很丰富

Natural gas has powered the energy transition in the United States.

天然气推动了美国的能源转型

Natural gas can fuel power plants.

天然气可以供应发电厂

It is one of the best feedstocks for producing fertilizer,

也是生产化肥最好的原料之一

and it is one of the safer and cleaner cooking fuels

在贫困国家，对女性来说

它也是更安全、 更清洁的烹饪燃料之一

for women in poor countries.

Renewables can be paired with natural gas

可以将可再生能源和天然气组合起来

to increase the share of low-carbon energy sources.

提升低碳能源占比

No country, not the US, not the UK, not in Europe, not China,

没有国家能够不依靠化石燃料发展

美国不行，英国不行， 欧盟和中国也不行

has developed without fossil fuels.

The United States has recently passed historically large investments

美国最近通过了一项 史无前例的大型投资

in clean energy,

不仅投资清洁能源

but also in some fossil fuels,

也投资一些化石能源

taking a very practical approach to its domestic energy transition.

这是其国内能源转型的实际方案

The United States and other rich countries

而当美国和其他富裕国家

should take that same practical approach

在援助贫困国家的能源项目时

when it comes to funding energy projects in poor countries.

也应该采用相同的实际方案

Let's not impose unnecessary and unjust restrictions

请不要让对气候变化责任最小的国家

on those who are least responsible for climate change.

受到不必要和不公平的限制

LL: If the lion's share of new energy production

林赛·莱文： 如果在发展中国家

in the developing world will be renewables,

能源结构占比最大的是可再生能源

a lot of new financing is going to be needed.

那么他们也将需要很多新的资金援助

Here's Rebekah Shirley of the World Resources Institute

以下是世界资源研究所 的瑞贝卡·雪莉的演讲

on why that's not happening yet.

她将谈到为什么资金援助还没有到位

RS: Africa is perhaps the continent that needs least convincing

瑞贝卡·雪莉： 非洲可能是最不需要知道

about the clean energy opportunity for health, livelihoods and economy.

清洁能源对健康、 生活以及经济的好处的大洲

As the fastest-growing, yet least electrified continent on the globe,

作为世界上发展最快， 但电力供应最不充足的大洲

most in need of power systems that can help fortify

此地的大多数国家都需要电力系统

against the onslaught of climate shocks

来帮助他们应对气候危机

with both abundant fossil and renewable energy resources

而建设电力系统 既需要充足的化石能源

to build them,

也需要可再生能源

Africa's energy transitions

非洲的能源转型

and how to dissuade the use of fossil fuels

以及停止使用化石燃料的问题

have become an intense international debate.

已经在国际上引起了激烈讨论

Many sub-Saharan African countries already rely on low-carbon resources.

很多撒哈拉以南的非洲国家 已经在使用低碳能源

Kenya, where I live,

像我生活的肯尼亚

generates 90 percent of its power from renewables like geothermal

有90%的电来自地热能 和水能这样的可再生能源

and hydropower.

Even in West Africa,

甚至在可再生能源 使用比例较低的西非

where renewable shares tend to be lower,

countries like Ghana generate over a third of their power

比如加纳，有超过1/3 的电力来自可再生能源

from renewable energy resources.

And countries like Namibia are at the forefront of innovation

再比如纳米比亚

也处在水能等清洁能 源创新发展的前线

on clean fuels like green hydrogen.

Couple all of that with housing one of the world's largest carbon sinks,

考虑到上述因素，加之此地 有着世界上最大的森林碳汇——

the Congo Basin,

刚果盆地

and sub-Saharan Africa is consistently recognized

撒哈拉以南非洲地区一直被公认为

as pulling more than its fair share of the global decarbonization effort.

为全球碳减排做出了 远超其义务的贡献

So if the need is urgent and if the resources are bountiful,

那么，既然需求紧迫，而资源丰富

then why are we still so far away from this clean-energy future for Africa?

为什么非洲离清洁能源主导 的未来仍然如此遥远呢？

And what I've learned is that though the world loves to remind Africa

我所知道的是，尽管世界很爱提起

about its vast clean-energy potential,

非洲清洁能源的巨大潜力

the financial flows to deliver that potential

但用以开发这种潜力的资金

remain troublingly scarce.

却仍然十分匮乏

Projects and businesses incur a number of hidden compounding costs and premiums.

各类项目和商业活动带来了很多 隐藏的复合成本及溢价

Like the risk perception premium.

比如风险感知溢价

Or the "paying back your US dollar loan

或者用不断贬值 的本国货币兑换美元以偿还贷款

in a constantly depreciating local currency" premium.

所造成的溢价

Or the "expected to deliver conventionally high rates of return

或者为了保持一贯的高回报率

while raising your revenues from customers

不得不从日薪一美元以下 的贫穷消费者手中榨取利益

that earn less than a dollar a day" premium.

所造成的溢价

So international finance markets are not appetized,

国际金融市场才刚刚入场

and financial flows here remain a trickle

和巨量的待启动项目相比

despite a pipeline of ready projects.

援助资金还只是九牛一毛

In fact, though 17 percent of the global population

实际上，尽管非洲人口 占世界人口的17%

and almost 90 percent of those still without access to basic energy,

而这些人中的90%仍然 无法获得基本的能源

today Africa accounts for a mere two percent

如今，非洲用于发展清洁能源的资金

of global clean-energy finance.

只占全世界的2%

From this perspective, we can see a key missing ingredient:

从这点出发，我们就能 够发现缺失的一环：

international cooperation

为非洲带来亟需资金的国际合作

to deliver the finance flows that Africa sorely needs.

Because there’s so much potential waiting right at the cusp.

因为我们现在需要 资金支持的项目太多了

If local enterprise had access to long-term, low-cost financing,

如果本国企业能够得到 长期低成本的资金支持

like their counterparts in other regions of the world

就像世界其他地区 的企业能够轻易得到的一样

can simply take for granted,

then Africa's clean-energy future would build itself.

那么非洲的清洁能源 的前景就能够自己明朗起来

HM: A lot of renewables technology already exists.

希山·蒙多尔：我们现在 已经拥有很多可再生能源技术了

The finance flows, especially to, you know, lower-emission countries

但我们还没有建立资金流，

特别是面向碳排放量 较低国家的资金流

don't exist.

These are the countries that need to grow and growth needs energy.

这些国家也恰恰是需要发展 的国家，而发展需要能源

That energy does not have to come from fossil fuels.

这些能源不一定要来自化石燃料

CA: We often speak with the acceptance of this tautology

凯瑟琳·阿布鲁： 我们总是不断提到

that no country has ever developed without the use of fossil fuels.

没有国家能不依靠化石燃料发展

But that's not the whole truth, right?

但是这种说法并不完整，不是吗？

The whole truth is

完整的说法应该是

that no country has developed without the use of fossil fuels yet.

“还”没有国家能不依靠化石燃料发展

LT: You have to really invest in the future

劳伦斯·图比亚纳：你需要为 这些低收入国家的未来而投资

of these low-income countries.

And access to energy,

并且，纵观全世界所有贫困家庭

really looking at the poorest households in all the region

能源可及性确实是很重要的一点

is really an important thing.

If not, the transition will always appear very unfair.

如果不解决这一点，那么 能源转型就会出现非常不公平的现象

MR: The World Bank hasn't been doing enough

玛丽·罗宾森：世界银行 在很多方面做得还远远不够

to provide that more concessional finance

比如为私人部门提供更多优惠性融资

that brings in private-sector financing and that, you know,

认真考察有哪些项目需要投资

really looks at what are the projects that are ready for investment

and takes risks because it's really important to have a sense

以及承担风险， 因为我们一定要认识到

that Africa is part of the clean energy going forward.

非洲是清洁能源 向前迈进的重要组成部分

LL: Global finance isn't flowing at scale where it's needed most.

林赛·莱文：全球资金 并没有大规模流向最需要的地区

How do we change that?

我们怎样才能改变这一现状？

Here's Zoë Knight of the HSBC Center for Sustainable Finance

汇丰银行可持续金融中心 的佐伊·奈特

to explain two major roles that banks could play.

将阐述银行在此过程中 能够扮演的两大角色

ZK: So the most immediate, pressing task that we have

佐伊·奈特： 我们最紧迫的任务

就是为能源转型提供资金，对吗？

is to finance the transition, right?

And banks are mission-critical to making that happen.

银行对于任务的完成是至关重要的

And the reason for that is because we have two very powerful levers.

因为我们有两个强有力的杠杆

The first is really to take environmental impact into account

第一是在做融资决策时

要切实把环境因素纳入考虑之中

in the financing decisions that we take,

and we're working on that.

我们也正在努力

And the second is to really actively engage

第二是积极与我们提供资金的

with the governments that we finance,

政府、国有企业联结

the state-owned corporates that we finance

and really work through how they can deliver their transition plan.

以他们能够完成能源转型的方式合作

So if we think about the next 10 to 15 years,

所以，如果我们展望未来10到15年

the industrial landscape is going to look very different than it does from today,

工业面貌会和今天非常不一样

particularly in the case of energy.

特别是在能源领域

And we know that that's taking trillions of investment to make the shift.

我们也知道这种变化 需要数万亿计的投资

We need a trillion per year by the end of the decade

这个十年结束前， 我们每年都要投入一万亿

to have half a semblance of being on track for net zero.

才能有50%的可能迈上零排放的正轨

And let me be clear,

明确地说

one of the things that the financial system absolutely has to do

有一件事情金融系统必须做到

is enable a science-aligned phase down of the financing of fossil fuels.

那就是科学地逐步减少 对于化石燃料的融资

We have to do that.

我们势在必行

But equally,

但同样

we need to channel the capital

我们也需要将油气产业所产生的利润

that is being generated from the oil and gas industry

for good purpose

导向有益的方向

because we need the know-how of the sector

因为我们需要这个领域的专业知识

and we need to make capital move in a way that's necessary.

也需要让资金以必要的方式流动

So think about this.

所以想想吧

The International Monetary Fund has just estimated

国际货币基金组织刚刚预估

that the Middle East oil and gas companies will generate

在未来四年，中东地区的油气公司

an incremental 1.3 trillion [dollars] in revenues over the next four years.

会累计产生1.3万亿美元的收入

The banks and financiers can help move that money into renewables

银行和金融家能够将这些资金 导入可再生能源领域

in a way that will make us achieve the net-zero ambition much, much faster.

而这会让我们更快达到零排放的目标

DB: In any discussion on this topic,

大卫·比尔洛： 在关于这一议题的讨论中

it's easy to get lost in the argument or focus entirely on the end goal.

我们很容易就会在争执中迷失， 或者只关注最终目标

What's also critical is that we need more planning

但同样重要的是， 我们也需要更有计划性

to get us off fossil fuels rapidly

来更快摆脱化石燃料

and without major disruptions that might undermine confidence

不因能源转型过程中出现 的干扰而丧失信心

in the energy transition itself.

Here’s engineer and environmental sociologist Emily Grubert.

以下是工程师和环境社会学家 艾米丽·格鲁伯特的演讲

EG: If we succeed at reaching international climate goals,

艾米丽·格鲁伯特： 如果我们完成国际气候目标

the fossil fuel infrastructure systems

支撑全球约80%能源消耗 的化石燃料基础设施

that support about 80 percent of global energy consumption

will mostly, if not entirely, retire over the next few decades.

就基本会在未来几十年内淘汰

What I'm talking about is big infrastructure

我说的不仅是发电厂、 炼油厂这类大型设施

like power plants and refineries,

but it's also things like gas stations and people's cars,

也包括加油站、私家车、 家用炉灶、工业熔炉等设备

stoves and furnaces.

Fossil fuel infrastructure is a complex network

化石燃料基础设施是 高风险行业建成的复杂网络

of high-hazard industries

that need to be able to continue to operate safely

在新的能源系统完备之前

until the new system is completely ready to take over,

这些设施还需要保持安全运行

包括在因气候变化而加剧 的一系列紧急情况中也是如此

including during emergencies complicated by climate change.

Just letting these systems go away would be deeply disruptive and hazardous.

直接禁用这套能源系统 会引发混乱、危险的连锁反应

We'd expect disproportionate harm to overburdened

一些不堪重负、设施 及服务不完善的地区

and underserved communities

反而会遭受更严重的冲击

who can't opt out from skyrocketing prices,

他们将面对飙升的能源价格

abandoned remediation plans

废弃的补救计划

and declining access to energy services.

以及逐渐减少的能源供应却束手无策

This means ongoing fossil expenditures

这意味着我们还需持续投资化石燃料

and a reliance on highly-trained workers

并继续依赖相关产业的熟练工人

in industries that might not outlast their careers --

尽管这些工人以后可能要转行

with a simultaneous focus on phasing out these same industries

同时，我们也要尽快淘汰 这些化石燃料工业

as quickly as possible

to address climate change

以应对气候变化以及许多 其他环境不公正现象

and a host of other environmental injustices.

This is why we need to plan.

这就是为什么我们需要计划

And right now, there's basically nowhere in the world

但是目前，世界上还没有任何一个地区

where these urgently needed plans for phasing out the fossil system

已经制定出了我们所急需 的淘汰化石能源体系

while phasing in the clean energy system exist.

建立清洁能源体系的计划

When we talk about climate goals, the question I like to ask is:

当我们说气候目标时， 我想问的问题是：

If we actually believed we were going to succeed,

如果我们真的相信我们最终将成功

what would we need to be doing right now?

那我们现在需要做什么呢？

One strategy here is to set deadlines for fossil asset retirements.

一个策略是，为淘汰 化石能源设施设定最后期限

Ample notice, say, a decade, gives communities enough time

给予各地区充分的时间，比如说十年

让各地区能够制定并实施各自的计划

to create and implement plans,

and a legislated end date gives people enough confidence

而一个法定的最后期限 能够给予公众信心

to commit to what can be an intense process.

让他们坚持完成这项紧迫任务

I showed that in the United States,

我展示过，在美国

requiring all fossil fuel-fired power generators to close by 2035,

拜登总统宣布了电力部门 的碳减排目标

which is President Biden's power sector decarbonization target,

到2035年，美国将停用 所有燃烧化石燃料的发电机组

would actually allow the large majority of them

这个目标考虑到了 绝大多数发电机组的使用寿命

to meet or exceed a typical lifespan,

让它们在适龄或超龄时淘汰

potentially giving communities some confidence

也潜在地让美国各地 对完成这一目标抱持信心

that these deadlines are manageable.

That is what earns and maintains trust.

这就是获得信任、保持信任的方法

Not far-off emissions targets with vague implementation plans.

而非那种遥不可及、 实施方案模糊的减排目标

The alternative of unplanned transitions is unacceptable

没有计划的能源转型 是难以让人接受的

but common.

但这又很普遍

Planning the transition is an ethical responsibility that takes time

为能源转型制定计划是 一种道德责任，这需要时间

but also creates opportunities to implement a just

但也为公平、可持续 的未来创造了机会

and sustainable future

that corrects the harms of the past.

让我们能够纠正过去的错误

Collaboration and a laser-like focus

在确保公众能够通过 能源转型获得成功条件方面

on ensuring people have what we need to succeed through this transition

精准聚焦并开展合作

will be critical,

是很重要的

particularly as the transition collides with climate tragedies.

特别是在这种能源转型 和气候灾害发生冲突时

What would we do now if we believed we'd succeed?

如果我们相信自己能成功， 那我们现在要做什么呢？

Manish Bhardwaj: Emily Grubert said something which I'm going to,

玛尼什·巴德瓦吉： 艾米丽·格鲁伯特说的一点

really sort of, take away, maybe even teach:

让我深有感触， 甚至可以说深受教导

that plans build trust.

那就是计划会建立信任

Promises, you may not believe mine,

你可能不会相信我的承诺

I might not believe yours,

我也不会相信你的承诺

but if we put something down,

但如果我们把计划列出来

this is what we are going to do year after year,

这就是我们此后每年要做的事

then I think that can build trust.

那我想，这是会建立信任的

I think that's just a beautiful thing that I'm carrying away from her.

我觉得这是我从她 的讲话中能看到的美好图景

LL: Emily challenged us to act like we're going to succeed.

林赛·莱文：艾米丽对我们提出了考验， 让我们以成功为目的而行动

Ramez Naam, a technologist and entrepreneur,

作为一位科技工作者和企业家

believes we have a real shot at it.

拉梅兹·纳姆认为我们应该放手一试

Renewables are plummeting in price,

可再生能源的价格在下跌

and there's opportunity to increase their share around the world

如果我们不再人为设置阻碍

if we get out of the way of progress.

就有可能提升可再生能源 在全球的占比

Here's some of his talk.

以下是他的演讲

RN: Clean energy will win on cost definitively,

拉梅兹·纳姆： 毫无疑问，清洁能源成本更低

but only if we get out of the way and allow it to be built.

但前提是我们要清除障碍，任其发展

Let's focus on that first point.

我们先来看看第一点

Let's look at the cost of clean energy technology.

先看看清洁能源技术的成本

In 1975,

1975年

if you were buying a solar panel per watt of power that it produced,

你买一块太阳能电池板， 它所生产的每瓦特电

it would cost you 100 US dollars.

成本都要100美元

By 2020,

到2020年

that cost had declined to 20 cents per watt of power.

成本下降到20分每瓦特

That's a 500-fold decline.

下降了500倍

This is unlike anything else ever seen in energy.

这在能源领域是绝无仅有的

It is unlike anything else ever seen in physical infrastructure.

在物理基础设施领域也是仅此一家

And it continues today,

而如今这种趋势还在继续

and it is likely to continue for decades to come.

在未来几十年，也将继续下去

Now, this has surprised the leading experts on clean energy

这种变化让清洁能源领域的权威专家

and even the biggest optimists on the future of clean energy.

甚至是对清洁能源 的前景最为乐观的人都震惊不已

We've seen the cost of batteries that power our electric vehicles

我们都见过新能源汽车 的电池能耗成本

and grid energy storage

电网储能消耗的速度

drop at the same pace or faster than the pace of solar.

也和太阳能发电速度一样快，甚至更快

And we are just at the very beginning

而使用清洁能源的成本

of an exponential cost decline

还会进一步呈指数型下跌

in the cost of using clean electricity

to make hydrogen and other fuels

我们将能够用氢和 其他可以利用的燃料

that we can use to power industry,

来为工业提供动力

to provide weeks or months of storage on the grid

来生产足够使用数周 或数月的电网储能

and to provide fuels we can use for aviation,

来为航空、航海业提供燃料

for shipping and so on.

还有等等其他用途

Clean energy technologies are technologies,

就像其他技术一样

and they drop in cost like technology.

清洁能源技术的成本也在下降

As they are scaled, they come down in price.

当这些技术推广开来，价格就会降低

Meanwhile, fossil fuels are commodities,

同时，化石燃料也是商品

and fossil fuel prices fluctuate over time.

化石燃料的价格也会有所波动

But there's two barriers I want to talk about in particular,

但我想特别谈谈清洁能源 推广的两个壁垒

which are the reluctance to build --

第一是建设难度

not in my backyard --

不是说随便在我家后院就能建

and the challenges with permitting.

以及许可难度

因为一般对于可再生能源的批评都是

Because we look at renewables

and a common complaint is they take up too much land.

占地面积太大

All of us want clean energy infrastructure,

大家都想要清洁能源设施

but many of us don't want it in our backyard.

但是都不想在自己家建

In winter you have one-seventh the solar resource in the UK

在英国，冬季太阳能资源 只有夏季的1/7

that you have in summer.

You have one-sixth the solar resource in Germany that you have in summer.

在德国，这个数字是1/6

So every model,

所以每一种预测模型

every simulation of weather and energy demand shows this.

每一项天气模拟分析 和能源需求都显示

It shows that if you want to have the highest reliability grid

如果要建设最可靠的电网

at the lowest cost with the least carbon emissions

同时成本要低、碳排放要少

and the most clean energy deployment,

清洁能源部署要尽可能多

you want to build a continent-sized grid.

那么我们只能建一个大洲级别的电网

In China, the bulk of energy demand is on the East Coast,

在中国，能源需求主体是在东部沿海

yet the greatest solar resources and wind resources are in the interior.

但最优质的太阳能 和风能却在内陆地区

And China is building literally scores of high-voltage power lines

中国正在铺设大量的高压电缆

that transmit power from where the sun and wind are

将电从太阳能和风能富集地

to the coasts, where the energy demand is.

输送到电能需求大的沿海地区

And the longest of these lines right now,

目前，这些电缆中最长的

that Ürümqi to Shanghai line, is 3,400 kilometers long.

连通乌鲁木齐和上海， 总长3,400公里

It is 90 percent efficient, very low losses,

损耗率非常低，只有10%

and it adds maybe a penny or two to the cost of electricity.

只会让用电成本上升一点点

That's what's technically feasible with current technology,

这就是目前我们 的技术能够做到的事

let alone advances.

更不用说技术还在继续发展

In Europe, that would allow us to transmit electricity

在欧洲，这种技术能支持我们

把电从塞维利亚输送到哥本哈根

from Seville to Copenhagen.

To bring power from the North Sea

从北海输送到欧洲大陆 任何需要电的地方

to anywhere in the continent that needs it.

In my home country, the United States,

在我的家乡美国

we could bring power from the sunny, wide open areas of New Mexico

我们能把电从日照丰富、 地广人稀的新墨西哥州

to population and land-dense New York,

输送到人口密集、寸土寸金

which doesn't get so much sun.

太阳能却不太丰富的纽约

And we could take wind power from the Great Plains,

也能在人口稀少的北美大平原上

that are largely devoid of population,

利用风能发电

and bring it to the coasts in winter.

然后在冬天把电输送到东西海岸

That is what a modern grid looks like.

这就是现代电网

And yet we are not building this.

我们还没有建设起来

It is time for us to build.

现在是时候行动了

DB: With technology advancing as fast as it is,

大卫·比尔洛： 随着科技飞速发展

there’s certainly hope that we can meet our energy transition goals,

毫无疑问，我们有希望 达成能源转型目标

and there are ways to ensure that everyone benefits in this transition.

也有办法确保每个人 都能从这种转型中获益

But it's going to be challenging.

但这个过程还是充满挑战

LL: There's no shortage of ideas, but time is running out,

林赛·莱文：我们可以 有各种想法，但时间不等人

making it all the more critical to collaborate with urgency

这让紧急合作和解决根本性难题

and resolve this fundamental dilemma.

更加重要

Here, again, are some leading voices on how we get there.

以下是关于如何达成 这一目标的创见性发言

MR: We all need to do three things.

玛丽·罗宾森： 我们都需要做到三件事

We need to make the climate crisis very personal in our lives,

我们要从个人生活 的角度看待气候危机

change our habits a bit as a result.

改变自己的习惯

第二，我们要对那些 没有尽力的人保持愤怒

Secondly, we need to get angry about those who aren't doing enough.

And thirdly, we need to imagine this world that is round the corner.

第三，我们要对即将 到来的世界付以想象

ZK: Every year I can see more focus from different actors

佐伊·奈特：每年我都能 看到不同参与者的更多关注

that are needed to be part of the solution.

这正是解决问题的一部分

LT: Renewable energy is a good business in many places.

劳伦斯·图比亚纳： 在很多地区，可再生能源大有商机

HM: There is a strong business case for it.

希山·蒙多尔： 这是一个强有力的商业案例

It makes investment sense.

投资会做出判断

HL: China is adding an astonishing amount of wind and solar to its grid every year.

刘虹桥：中国每年都向电网 增加输送大量的风能、太阳能发电

RN: It's cheaper to build a new solar or wind farm

拉梅兹·纳姆： 新建一座风能或太阳能发电厂

than it is to put fuel into a natural gas plant or a coal plant.

要比为天然气 或煤炭发电厂提供燃料便宜

TB: Our job has to be to make sure

采波拉·波尔曼： 我们的工作应该是

确保政治家们知道， 如果他们要推行一些艰难的政策

that politicians know that they're going to have the support that they need

他们会得到支持

for the hard policies.

LN: We need people to get on board in a fight for climate justice.

路易莎·纽鲍尔： 我们需要公众都参与进来，

一起抵御气候不公正现象

And this means getting people on board

这意味着要让完全不认识

that have never spoken to each other before

或者互相不认同的人一起合作

and that have always disagreed.

MB: Even at this conference, you will meet people

玛尼什·巴德瓦吉：甚至在这样 的大会上，你会遇到各种各样的人

and you expect them to have very particular sort of, polar stance.

你以为他们的观点两极分化

But when you actually get into a conversation,

但当你真的参与对话时

you see the openings.

你会发现他们的态度都很开放

CA: I love listening to people with different points of view.

凯瑟琳·阿布鲁： 我喜欢听人们讲述不同观点

对话毫无疑问 是很重要、很有启发性的

Dialogue is absolutely essential and so generative.

But once we leave the safe space of this conversation,

但一旦我们离开了对话的安全区域

we go back out into a world that is rife with power dynamics

我们就会回到一个充斥着权力动态

and institutionalized, structural inequities.

以及制度性、结构性不平等的世界

And we have to just acknowledge that fact.

而我们要知道这一事实

RN: So I think it's not a bad thing to listen

拉梅兹·纳姆： 所以我想，我们可以倾听

然后基于我们听到的说法， 给出自己的判断

and then apply your own judgment to what you've heard.

And is it self-serving or not,

这是否太自私了？

and what nuggets of truth or what pieces of data are there?

其中又包含哪些事实或者数据？

MB: What we don't want to lose

玛尼什·巴德瓦吉： 归根结底，所有系统的核心都是人

is that ultimately there are people at the heart of systems.

这是我们不想失去的部分

And systems change will sometimes fail

有时候系统转型的失败

just because two folks cannot get along with each other.

仅仅是因为两个 相关人员无法和平相处

Jade Begay: I think we overlook relationship building

贾德·比盖： 我想我们忽视了关系的建立

as kind of cheesy or corny,

觉得拉关系虚伪又陈腐

but ask any person who’s built change over time,

但是所有达成变革的人

and it happens through relationships.

都是通过人际关系完成的

MR: I was very affected, as were the other women leaders,

玛丽·罗宾森：当贾德说， “在我们新墨西哥，我们会说

when Jade said,

好日子还在后头呢”

"In our tribe in New Mexico, we say,

我和其他的女性领导者都很受感染

'What if our best times are still ahead of us?'"

Our best times are still ahead of us.

我们的好日子的确还在后头

But so are our worst times.

但现在，我们还处在最坏的时候

We have that choice.

我们可以做出改变

And of course, we have to choose our best times

当然，我们要选择好日子

and we have to know how difficult it is.

也要知道要过上“好日子”有多难

And yet, Nelson Mandela famously said

但是，纳尔逊·曼德拉曾有名言

"it always seems impossible until it is done."

“在成功之前，一切总看似不可能”

And I love that phrase.

我非常喜欢这句话