What Will the Dream Car of the Future Be Like? | Alex Koster | TED

翻译人员: Sue Lu 校对人员: Yip Yan Yeung

今天我想和你们聊聊汽车，

So I'd love to talk a little bit about cars today.

So cars have always been an irrational affair.

一个不可理喻的东西。

If you think about it,

你想想，

it makes no sense whatsoever to take two tons of metal

用一堆两吨重的金属

to move a person from point A to point B.

把一个人从A点送到B点， 是不是很不合情理？

Nevertheless, we have 1.5 billion cars in the world today,

然而现今世界上有 15 亿辆汽车。

and they have a very dear place in many of our hearts.

在我们许多人心目中，汽车至关重要。

So for some of us, the car represents the ultimate engine of freedom.

对于我们中的一些人， 汽车代表着追求自由的终极引擎。

Like, blow it all off and drive away.

油门一踩，风驰电掣。

And for others it is the coming of age.

而对于其他一些人， 它标志着成年的到来。

Like, maybe you had your first kiss in a car.

也许，你的初吻就发生在一辆车里。

I see you smile.

我看到你笑了。

Or maybe the car even had a name.

或者，你甚至还给那车取了名字。

So if we look to China, only 16 percent of people say

让我们来看一下中国， 那里只有 16% 的人认为

that a car does not increase your status significantly.

汽车并不能显著提高你的社会地位。

And in 2018, the world was watching

2018 年，全世界都在关注

when in Saudi women took to the steering wheel for the first time.

沙特的妇女第一次接掌了方向盘。

Musicians aren't writing songs about microwaves or Fitbits,

音乐家们不会写 关于微波炉或Fitbits的歌曲,

but Prince had his song "Little Red Corvette."

但歌星王子（Prince）有首歌叫 《红色小科尔维特》（美国雪佛兰车型）。

And Rihanna had a great number one Billboard chart song

蕾哈娜有首《公告牌》 排行榜第一名的歌，

with "Shut Up and Drive."

叫做《闭嘴，开车》。

Now, when you look at car commercials, they typically look like this.

现在的汽车广告通常看起来

Super romantic.

超级浪漫。

Basically, they take you in a very safe space,

它们把你带入一个 非常安全的空间，

fantastic, gorgeous landscape with your dear ones around you.

奇妙，华丽的景观， 身边伴着心爱的人儿。

And you can basically drive forever into beautiful land.

你似乎能永远行驶 在那美丽的地方。

Now, of course, we all know that this is extremely glamorous

当然，我们都清楚这超级迷人，

but doesn't really reflect reality.

却并非现实的映照。

When you do buy a car today,

当你真的买了一辆车,

what this feels like usually is like this, right?

通常会有什么感受，对吧？

You stand in traffic, you look for parking space,

你行驶在川流不息的车流中， 无望地寻找着停车位。

you breathe recycled air, clearly not glamorous.

你呼吸着车里的循环空气， 一点也不带劲。

The other thing is,

另外，

if you put about 100 cars from all kinds of brands next to each other,

如果把 100 辆各种品牌的 汽车放在一起，

I guess you will probably also agree that they look more or less all the same.

我猜你也会承认 它们其实看起来都差不多。

Individuality is clearly dead.

个性化显然已不复存在。

So now next to this crisis of the brand and of car industry,

现在，除了品牌个性化 和整个汽车行业的危机感，

there are three major technology trends that are hitting the industry massively.

三个主要科技发展趋势 也正大规模地冲击着汽车行业。

The first one is well-known,

第一个是众所周知的，

which is the shift from fossil energy to clean energy.

从化石能源向清洁能源的转变。

That one is actually well underway, well understood.

这个已经在进行中, 并得到了一致认同。

By 2028, we expect that pure battery electric vehicles

到 2028 年，预计 纯电池电动汽车

will be the most sold type.

将是最畅销的类型。

But I'd like to focus more on the other two.

现在我想重点讲讲其它两个趋势。

So one of them is the shift from mechanical to software.

一个是从机械到软件的转变。

And what it does is you don't actually have anymore a fixed product,

就是说你拥有的汽车 不再是个固化的产品，

but it will continue to evolve, to learn, to change.

它会持续不继地发展、学习，改变，

It's a bit like a touch screen instead of a keyboard.

有点像取代键盘的触摸屏。

The other one is you add AI on top,

另一个趋势是 人工智能的应用。

and it means that you will have the ability to switch

那意味着你将能够

from human operator to machine operated,

从人工操作转换到机器操作。

and the robot takes over as the driver.

机器人将成为你的司机。

Now, of course, car companies have also understood these trends,

汽车公司当然也清楚这些趋势。

and they are working to incorporate some of the capabilities into the cars.

它们正致力于 将多项功能加到汽车里。

But I think we have a way longer way to go

不过我认为我们还有 一段较长的摸索之路，

and we will soon see the emergence of what I call the “software dream car”

虽然不久的将来我们会看到 我称之为“梦想软件车”的出现。

as opposed to the freedom dream car

它不同于以前的“梦想自由车”，

or the other mechanical dream car that you had in the past.

或其它的“梦想机械车”。

So actually, you may be surprised I'm actually not a car guy,

实际上，你可能会感到惊讶， 我并不是一个汽车迷。

我的血管里也没有流淌着汽油。

so I don't have petrol running in my veins or something.

So I’m actually a software engineer,

我是一名软件工程师，

and I had the pleasure to work in many other industries before,

我曾有幸在许多其他行业工作过，

including telecoms, media, phones, TVs, drones, whatever comes to your mind,

包括电信、媒体、电话、电视， 无人机，任何你能想到的行业。

and all of them have already gone through the disruption of software.

所有这些行业都已经历了软件的颠覆。

And it made massive changes to all of those industries.

软件给它们 带来了巨大的变化。

So I'm now very proud that I can work with auto companies

因此，我非常自豪能够 与汽车制造企业合作，

who are just at the beginning of this journey.

尤其是在它们踏上 软件颠覆之旅的开端。

Now we have been approached, my team and myself, just very recently,

最近，一个著名汽车品牌找上门，

by one of the iconic car brands

希望我和我的团队

to think through the future of that software dream car.

为其设想出 这种梦想软件车的前景。

How does it look like?

比如，它会是什么样子？

So we actually co-created something,

我们一起做了一些创意设计，

and we reached out to a bunch of people,

联系了一帮同行，

working with the auto engineers and the designers for sure.

当然包括了汽车工程师、 设计师等等。

But then we also looked at the professors in neuroscience and biomechanics,

不过，我们也请教了一些神经科学 和生物力学方面的教授，

creative artists, people from science fiction

还有创意艺术家、科幻小说作者，

all the way to luxury industries.

甚至奢侈品行业的专家。

And we brought it all together in a multidisciplinary perspective,

我们从多学科的角度 将这一切汇集到一起。

and I'd like to share some of that today.

今天，我想来跟各位分享一番，

So I hope you are ready for that.

希望你们做好了心理准备。

Off we go.

好吧，

So let's start at the center of the description.

让我们从核心部分讲起。

This is really the core functionality of the car,

未来汽车功能的核心，

and obviously it will have an AI driver driving you around.

很显然，是人工智能司机 （AI driver）替你驾驶。

Now that AI driver needs to be a factor of ten better than any human,

人工智能司机需要比人类强十倍，

which means less than one fatality per one billion miles traveled.

意即每 10 亿英里行程中， 死亡人数应少于 1 人。

This is a very hard problem,

这是一个非常棘手的难题。

and the industry has been littered with failures over the past 20 years

在过去的 20 年里， 汽车行业挑战它而失败的例子

to get this done.

比比皆是。

But we are very close.

不过我们现在很接近了。

And when it does happen,

当这个问题迎刃而解时，

it will become only one part of the functionality of the vehicle.

那也只是解决了 汽车功能的一部分问题。

The other part of the vehicle

另一部分挑战，

is actually going to be the in-car experience all around you

则是关于改善你的车内体验，

because you will now be driven by the AI driver.

因为现在你不用再操心驾驶了。

So this is going to be shaped by augmented reality and virtual reality.

这点将通过增强现实 和虚拟现实来实现。

Now to show a little bit how this could feel like,

让我们用这个例子来感受下。

I'd like to just give a glimpse from a movie

这是一部电影中的一个画面，

that maybe many of you have seen, "Blade Runner 2049."

都看过吧，《银翼杀手 2049》 （Blade Runner 2049）。

Fantastic movie,

很棒的电影，

I hope you all loved it, the ones who saw it.

希望看过的人都喜欢。

Now there's one character in there, he's the bad guy,

里面有一个角色，一个坏蛋。

so I love to talk about him, it's Wallace.

我很喜欢谈论他，他叫华莱士。

And he actually is vision impaired, so he can't see by himself.

他实际上有视力障碍， 自己看不见东西。

But he has a set of floating sensors in a room,

但他房间里有套浮动的传感器

and that gives him the ability to see from multiple angles at the same time.

令他拥有了同时从多角度 看见事物的能力。

Now, it's a bit creepy because it's shown with little bugs floating around.

当然，那仪器有点可怕， 它会同时显示四处漂浮着小虫子。

So I don't think that's how it's going to be implemented

所以我认为这个技术不会

in the software dream car exactly.

被用在梦想软件车上。

But you get the idea that also in the software dream car,

但你明白我的意思吧， 在梦想软件车上，

you will be able to actually get like an overlay picture

你将能开启，比如， 一个实境之上的叠加虚拟画面，

to the normal reality that will have all kinds of information

其中包含着各种信息

and entertainment around you.

和娱乐享受。

And you will come to expect

你会开始期待，

that when you drive in the physical world to a destination,

当在现实世界中驾车 去往一个目的地时，

that you will also want to be in the virtual world

也可以同时置身于

during the same time.

虚拟世界中。

And the vehicle will be the thing,

汽车将是那个能让你

the device that takes you to both places.

同时身处两个世界的机械设备。

Now, if I turn it up a little bit and I look at the next layer,

现在，如果我再深入一点, 进到下一层面，

I want to talk

话题就是

about the performance and the quality.

关于汽车的性能和质量。

The software dream car will have basically a computing power

该梦想软件车将拥有的计算能力

that is about ten times faster than any other device that you have.

比你的任何其他设备都快十倍。

And it better does, right?

这是必须的，对吧？

Because I guess we all got very impatient when we push a button in our cars

因为我们现在都变得很没耐心了， 如果按下汽车上的一个按钮，

and like, nothing happens for five seconds.

五秒钟内没有反应， 我们就嫌它太慢。

So you will get really furious if it takes more than a split second

你会变得非常烦躁， 如果不能一秒钟之内

to switch from virtual reality to real reality, so to say.

从虚拟世界转换 到现实世界。

And what you really want is it should feel more

你真正期望的

like a well-orchestrated dance between the human and the machine

是像一场精心策划的 人与机器之间的舞蹈般，

on precision, very fast, immediate.

精准，快速，即时。

And the same is true then again, for the AI driving.

对于人工智能驾驶， 期望也是如此。

If it feels like a choppy ride,

如果感觉一路上颠簸不平，

like if you are in an Uber from the 2020s,

就像你在 2020 年 乘Uber时一样，

this is not the experience you want to have.

那肯定不是你想拥有的体验。

You want it to be smooth, getting beside the traffic

你一定希望路途顺畅， 行驶在车水马龙之外，

and not like getting stuck all the time.

避开交通堵塞。

Then let me go through the last layer on top of this,

那么请让我揭示 这之上的最后一个层面，

which is the one that I find most exciting

这也是我认为 最令人兴奋的部分，

because this is bringing together the full experience.

因为这是关于整合 一个完整的体验。

And the comparison I'd like to make is a bit like a photograph.

打比方说， 这有点像一张照片。

A photograph can become a piece of art.

一张照片可以 成为一件艺术品，

And it does so because it makes you stop, start thinking, search also for meaning.

如果它令你驻足思考， 寻求其深义。

And you will have a similar impression with the software dream car

梦想软件车也将会 令你产生类似感受。

because it will be able, when you have downloaded that NFT photograph,

因为它能在你下载NFT图片后，

hopefully not of a monkey or so,

希望不是猴子之类的图片，

but some other kind of nice photograph,

而是你喜欢的图片，

and you want to put it on the outside of the vehicle,

把它显示在车外面。

well, you will actually be able to do that, no problem.

嗯，这一点能做到的，完全没问题。

When you are creative and you want to change the functionality of the car,

当你创意四溢， 想要改变汽车的功能，

well, you can program it, download it,

嗯，你可以编程，然后下载程序，

and it will do what you want to do.

汽车就会按你的指令运作。

So again, you are in control of both the interior

所以，我再次强调， 你可以全权掌控汽车内部

and the exterior experience of the vehicle.

和外部的相关体验。

You will also have sensors in all the surfaces,

车上所有的表面 都将装上传感器。

so you can basically imagine

因此， 如你所想，

the car will be able to sense any tensions in your muscles

汽车将能感受到你肌肉中 出现的任何紧张表现，

but also any bumps in the road, and it can adjust to both of them.

以及道路上的任何颠簸， 然后针对它们做出相应调整。

Now, what’s actually surprising maybe: the technology is all there,

真正令人惊奇的是， 那些技术其实都是现成的，

it's not the barrier.

完全不是问题。

We have all the LiDARs, the radars, the cameras, the holograms.

我们有LiDAR、 雷达、照相机、全息图。

We have quantum computers.

我们有量子计算机。

We even have brain-computer interfaces,

我们甚至有脑机接口，

and they are operational for many years.

已经运作多年了。

People have chips implanted, and it works.

人体内植入芯片， 效果还不错。

So why don't we see those software dream cars on the road?

那么，为什么我们没有看到 梦想软件车飞奔上路呢？

Well, it's a big step, right,

嗯，这需要跨出 很大的一步，对吧？

if we look at the automotive companies,

让我们来看看汽车制造企业。

they obviously have managed to get cars on the road for more than 100 years.

它们已经让汽车 在公路上行驶了 100 多年。

But this step here requires so much new technology understanding data

但这里的这一大步需要 投入相当多的新技术，理解数据，

and the ability to innovate fast

以及拥有快速创新的能力，

that it is a huge step forward for them.

这对它们来说将是 巨大的一步跃进。

And you have about 15 million people working directly in the industry globally,

全球大约有 1500 万人 在汽车行业工作，

plus another 50 to 100 that are in adjacent industries.

另有 50 到 100 万人 在相关行业中就业。

And many of them will have to change, retrain, get into the new world.

他们中许多人将不得不改行， 重新培训，在新世界里寻找新机会。

So it's a long way to go.

因此，我们有很长的一段路要走。

And then you have the tech companies well, those guys, they go wild.

还有，那些科技公司， 嗯，那些家伙很肆无忌惮。

They have also made us already addicted to smartphones

它们已经令我们 沉迷于智能手机

and media and so on.

和社交网络媒体等等。

So I'm sure they can make us addicted as well to their car,

我肯定它们也能令我们迷恋上 它们的高科技汽车。

but they shy away from the liabilities because at the end of the day,

不过与之相关的重大责任 令它们望而却步了。

this is a life and death product.

毕竟，这是一个生死攸关的产品，

So you need to be really careful about this.

真的需要慎重对待。

So as we think about the future,

当我们畅想未来时，

I'm totally convinced this will happen very soon, it's around the corner.

我坚信这一切将很快发生， 如同前方的拐角处，近在眼前。

Now the question will be: Is this now good or bad?

人们的疑问是： 现在这么做是好还是坏呢？

And that's a fair challenge.

这个质疑是合理的。

Now, if we put it all together, it's actually complicated.

我们想要整合的一切， 实际上很复杂。

Because first of all,

首先，

that car will mostly be available for the rich few initially.

该车型在最初将 主要提供给少数富人。

Also, as I said before, it will upend the lives of many people

另外，如我之前所说， 它将彻底改变许多人的生活，

that are especially in mechanical jobs.

尤其会影响到 机械技术方面的就业。

You will have plenty of new jobs coming along,

虽然会有很多新的就业机会出现，

but they tend to be in totally different places

但它们往往是在完全不同的领域，

and also in different skills.

需要完全不同的技能。

And also what's going to happen if you make a product more attractive,

当一个更吸引人的车型上市， 会出现什么状况呢？

you will actually have many more of those on the street rather than fewer.

街道上就会出现更多这类汽车。

So the good thing is, again,

好处在于，

you take out the human in the driving

这车不用人来驾驶，

so it becomes a little bit more controlled and safe.

所以更好掌控，更安全。

And then what about that “Little Red Corvette” from Prince

那么，歌星王子的 《红色小科尔维特》怎么办？

that we had a bit earlier?

曾经的旧爱？

Well, it's also going to be quite different

嗯，它也将为你改变，

because the software dream car

因为梦想软件车,

will quite literally be able to read your mind,

能读懂你的心思。

which is kind of scary.

这确实有点吓人。

But at the same time,

但与此同时，

it also is really good at predicting what you want to have

它非常善于预测 你想要什么，

and your preferences, which is kind of nice.

你的喜好等等， 倒是蛮有用的。

And also the camera that you will have in the car

还有你车内的摄像机

will actually be able to also detect when that little child has been left

能够检测到危情， 比如当有个小孩被独自留在

in the overheated vehicle

过热的车里时，

and the vehicle is able to basically open the windows,

汽车能够自动开窗，

put on the air conditioning,

开启空调，

call emergency services and save lives,

呼叫紧急服务，从而拯救生命。

in their own way.

这是梦想软件车 救人的方式。

Now, the other big thing I want to point out is,

现在，我想讲讲 另一个重要的方面。

remember individuality, which is dead today?

还记得前面提到的 关于个性消亡吗？

I think if we now look into the future,

如果展望未来，

we will actually see that the software dream car will enable you

我们就会看到 梦想软件车能助你

to really escape into a world that you can shape on yourself,

逃进一个你 可以自己塑造的世界，

both digitally and physically.

不管是在虚拟还是 现实的层面上。

It is really up to you to make it your personal experience,

这完全取决于你想如何塑造 你的个人体验，

again, in the virtual world and in the real world.

不管是在虚拟世界 还是现实世界。

It's going to be possible in a way

这将成为现实，

that is way further than anything that you have seen in any recent past.

当然，会比你近期看到的更加前卫。

So if we take this all together,

因此，如果我们 把这一切放在一起考量，

I guess the question comes down to:

这个问题可以归结为：

Are you guys technology optimists or pessimists?

你们是科技乐观主义者 还是悲观主义者？

And really what matters to me is over the next 20 years,

对我而言，重要的是 是在未来 20 年里，

when this software dream car will come to the real world,

当这梦想软件车上市时，

it will be a bit like a white sheet of paper.

它应该像一张白纸，

It’s not good or bad [in] itself,

本身并没有好坏之分。

but it is the largest real-life experiment of AI and humans interacting

但它将是现实中人工智能 与人类互动的规模最大的一场实验，

on a daily basis.

而且每天都在进行着。

So I would encourage all of you to embrace it, see the beauty,

因此我鼓励大家 开怀拥抱新事物，欣赏它的美好，

but also shape it

同时也塑造它，

and drive it in a way that it is good for the wider humanity.

并以一种对人类社会 有益的方式去驾驭它。

And I can only speak for myself to say

我想告诉大家，

that I'm really excited about what the future holds for us.

我真的很兴奋并 对我们的未来充满期待。

But I guess for all of you, the question will be

但我猜你们的疑问是，

when Rihanna will release a song in '28,

蕾哈娜将在 2028 年 什么时候发布那首新歌

"Shut up and program your future self."

《闭嘴，编程你的未来》？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）