What Will the Dream Car of the Future Be Like? | Alex Koster | TED

Translator: Tutut Indriaty Reviewer: Elyonai Krist

So I'd love to talk a little bit about cars today.

Hari ini saya akan membahas tentang mobil.

So cars have always been an irrational affair.

Mobil kerap jadi hal yang tidak rasional.

If you think about it,

Jika Anda memikirkannya,

it makes no sense whatsoever to take two tons of metal

tidak masuk akal menggunakan 2 ton logam

to move a person from point A to point B.

untuk seseorang beralih dari titik A ke B.

Nevertheless, we have 1.5 billion cars in the world today,

Namun, saat ini ada 1,5 miliar mobil di dunia

and they have a very dear place in many of our hearts.

dan menjadi hal istimewa di benak kita.

So for some of us, the car represents the ultimate engine of freedom.

Bagi sebagian orang, mobil ialah mesin kebebasan.

Like, blow it all off and drive away.

Tancap gas dan mobil akan melesat cepat.

And for others it is the coming of age.

Bagi orang lain, ialah proses pendewasaan.

Like, maybe you had your first kiss in a car.

Mungkin Anda melakukan ciuman pertama di mobil.

I see you smile.

Anda senyum.

Or maybe the car even had a name.

Atau mungkin mobil mempunyai nama.

So if we look to China, only 16 percent of people say

Di China, hanya 16% orang mengatakan

that a car does not increase your status significantly.

bahwa mobil tidak meningkatkan statusmu.

And in 2018, the world was watching

Pada 2018, dunia menyaksikan

when in Saudi women took to the steering wheel for the first time.

perempuan Saudi mengemudi pertama kalinya.

Musicians aren't writing songs about microwaves or Fitbits,

Musisi tidak menulis lagu tentang microwaves atau Fitbits,

but Prince had his song "Little Red Corvette."

tetapi Prince menulis lagunya “Little Red Corvette.”

And Rihanna had a great number one Billboard chart song

Dan Rihanna menempati posisi #1 Billboard

with "Shut Up and Drive."

dengan lagu “Shut Up and Drive.”

Now, when you look at car commercials, they typically look like this.

Sekarang, iklan mobil terlihat seperti ini.

Super romantic.

Sangat romantis.

Basically, they take you in a very safe space,

Intinya, mereka membawa Anda ke tempat yang sangat aman,

fantastic, gorgeous landscape with your dear ones around you.

fantastis, lanskap indah dengan orang kesayanganmu.

And you can basically drive forever into beautiful land.

Dan Anda bisa menyetir menuju daratan indah.

Now, of course, we all know that this is extremely glamorous

Tentu, kita tahu ini sangatlah memesona

but doesn't really reflect reality.

tapi tidak merefleksikan realita.

When you do buy a car today,

Jika Anda beli mobil,

what this feels like usually is like this, right?

biasanya akan terasa seperti ini, kan?

You stand in traffic, you look for parking space,

Menunggu kemacetan, mencari tempat parkir,

you breathe recycled air, clearly not glamorous.

menghirup udara pengap, jelas tidak memesona.

The other thing is,

Hal lainnya,

if you put about 100 cars from all kinds of brands next to each other,

jika Anda menjejerkan 100 mobil bermerek,

I guess you will probably also agree that they look more or less all the same.

Menurut saya, Anda juga akan setuju bahwa mobil-mobil itu terlihat sama.

Individuality is clearly dead.

Individualitas telah tiada.

So now next to this crisis of the brand and of car industry,

Di samping krisis merek dan industri mobil,

there are three major technology trends that are hitting the industry massively.

ada 3 tren teknologi yang berdampak masif.

The first one is well-known,

Yang pertama itu terkenal,

which is the shift from fossil energy to clean energy.

peralihan dari energi fosil ke energi bersih.

That one is actually well underway, well understood.

Ini sebenarnya baik dan dapat dipahami.

By 2028, we expect that pure battery electric vehicles

Pada 2028, diperkirakan kendaraan listrik dengan baterai murni

will be the most sold type.

akan terjual paling banyak.

But I'd like to focus more on the other two.

Namun saya ingin fokus ke 2 tren lainnya.

So one of them is the shift from mechanical to software.

Salah satunya yaitu peralihan mekanik ke perangkat lunak.

And what it does is you don't actually have anymore a fixed product,

Dampaknya, Anda tidak akan memiliki produk tetap lagi,

but it will continue to evolve, to learn, to change.

tapi akan terus berkembang, belajar, dan berubah.

It's a bit like a touch screen instead of a keyboard.

Seperti layar sentuh dibanding keyboard.

The other one is you add AI on top,

Terakhir adalah menambahkan AI,

and it means that you will have the ability to switch

ini berarti Anda akan mampu untuk beralih

from human operator to machine operated,

dari operator manusia ke mesin,

and the robot takes over as the driver.

dan robot mengambil alih pengemudi.

Now, of course, car companies have also understood these trends,

Perusahaan mobil tentu paham tren ini,

and they are working to incorporate some of the capabilities into the cars.

dan mereka mengintegrasikannya pada mobil.

But I think we have a way longer way to go

Tapi saya pikir kita punya jalan yang lebih panjang

and we will soon see the emergence of what I call the “software dream car”

dan kita akan segera melihat munculnya “software dream car”

as opposed to the freedom dream car

sebagai lawan dari “freedom dream car”

or the other mechanical dream car that you had in the past.

atau mobil mekanik impian lainnya di masa lalu.

So actually, you may be surprised I'm actually not a car guy,

Mungkin Anda kaget bahwa saya bukan penyuka mobil,

so I don't have petrol running in my veins or something.

dan bensin tidak mengalir di pembuluh darah saya.

So I’m actually a software engineer,

Sebenarnya saya insinyur software,

and I had the pleasure to work in many other industries before,

dan saya pernah bekerja di industri lain sebelumnya,

including telecoms, media, phones, TVs, drones, whatever comes to your mind,

termasuk telekomunikasi, media, telepon, TV, drone, dan lainnya

and all of them have already gone through the disruption of software.

dan semuanya telah hilang akibat software.

And it made massive changes to all of those industries.

Dan terjadi perubahan masif di seluruh industri itu.

So I'm now very proud that I can work with auto companies

Saya sekarang sangat bangga bekerja di perusahaan otomotif

who are just at the beginning of this journey.

yang baru saja memulai perjalanan ini.

Now we have been approached, my team and myself, just very recently,

Baru-baru ini, kami didekati

by one of the iconic car brands

oleh sebuah merek mobil ikonik

to think through the future of that software dream car.

untuk berpikir ke depan dari “software dream car”.

How does it look like?

Bagaimana rupanya?

So we actually co-created something,

Jadi kami menciptakan sesuatu bersama,

and we reached out to a bunch of people,

dan menjangkau sekelompok orang,

working with the auto engineers and the designers for sure.

bekerja dengan insinyur otomotif dan desainer.

But then we also looked at the professors in neuroscience and biomechanics,

Lalu kami juga melihat profesor ilmu saraf dan biomekanik,

creative artists, people from science fiction

seniman kreatif, orang-orang dari fiksi ilmiah

all the way to luxury industries.

hingga ke industri mewah.

And we brought it all together in a multidisciplinary perspective,

Dan menggabungkannya dalam perspektif multidisiplin

and I'd like to share some of that today.

dan saya akan menceritakannya hari ini.

So I hope you are ready for that.

Saya harap Anda siap untuk itu.

Off we go.

Mari kita mulai.

So let's start at the center of the description.

Dimulai dari inti deskripsi.

This is really the core functionality of the car,

Ini benar-benar inti fungsional dari mobil,

and obviously it will have an AI driver driving you around.

dan tentu akan ada supir AI yang mengemudikan.

Now that AI driver needs to be a factor of ten better than any human,

Supir AI ini harus 10 kali lebih baik dari manusia

which means less than one fatality per one billion miles traveled.

yang artinya kurang dari 1 kematian per 1 miliar mil perjalanan.

This is a very hard problem,

Ini masalah yang sulit,

and the industry has been littered with failures over the past 20 years

dan industri telah gagal selama 20 tahun ini

to get this done.

untuk menyelesaikannya.

But we are very close.

Namun kita hampir usai.

And when it does happen,

Dan ketika itu terjadi,

it will become only one part of the functionality of the vehicle.

akan menjadi sebuah fungsi dari kendaraan itu.

The other part of the vehicle

Bagian lain dari kendaraan

is actually going to be the in-car experience all around you

adalah pengalaman di dalam mobil

because you will now be driven by the AI driver.

karena Anda akan dikemudikan oleh supir AI.

So this is going to be shaped by augmented reality and virtual reality.

Ini berbentuk AR dan VR.

Now to show a little bit how this could feel like,

Lalu untuk menunjukkan bagaimana rasanya,

I'd like to just give a glimpse from a movie

saya akan memberi cuplikan sebuah film

that maybe many of you have seen, "Blade Runner 2049."

yang mungkin pernah Anda tonton, “Blade Runner 2049.”

Fantastic movie,

Film yang fantastis,

I hope you all loved it, the ones who saw it.

saya harap Anda menyukainya.

Now there's one character in there, he's the bad guy,

Ada seorang karakter, si lelaki jahat,

so I love to talk about him, it's Wallace.

saya akan bicara tentangnya, Wallace.

And he actually is vision impaired, so he can't see by himself.

Dia memiliki gangguan penglihatan, dia tidak bisa melihat.

But he has a set of floating sensors in a room,

Tapi dia punya sensor pelampung di ruangan,

and that gives him the ability to see from multiple angles at the same time.

dan memberikan dia kemampuan untuk melihat dari berbagai sudut bersamaan.

Now, it's a bit creepy because it's shown with little bugs floating around.

Sedikit geli karena ditunjukkan dengan serangga kecil yang mengambang.

So I don't think that's how it's going to be implemented

Jadi menurut saya implementasinya tidak tepat seperti itu

in the software dream car exactly.

dalam “software dream car”.

But you get the idea that also in the software dream car,

Tapi Anda mendapatkan gagasan bahwa dalam “software dream car”

you will be able to actually get like an overlay picture

Anda akan dapat mendapatkan gambar overlay

to the normal reality that will have all kinds of information

ke kenyataan normal yang memiliki segala jenis informasi

and entertainment around you.

dan hiburan untuk Anda.

And you will come to expect

Anda akan berharap

that when you drive in the physical world to a destination,

ketika mengemudi di dunia fisik ke destinasi,

that you will also want to be in the virtual world

Anda juga ingin berada di dunia virtual

during the same time.

di saat yang bersamaan.

And the vehicle will be the thing,

Dan kendaraan akan menjadi barang,

the device that takes you to both places.

alat yang membawa Anda ke kedua tempat itu.

Now, if I turn it up a little bit and I look at the next layer,

Jika saya naikkan sedikit dan melihat lapisan berikutnya,

I want to talk

Saya ingin bicara

about the performance and the quality.

tentang penampilan dan kualitasnya.

The software dream car will have basically a computing power

“Software dream car” akan punya daya komputasi

that is about ten times faster than any other device that you have.

yang 10 kali lebih cepat dari alat lain yang Anda punya.

And it better does, right?

Memang seharusnya, kan?

Because I guess we all got very impatient when we push a button in our cars

Karena saya rasa kita sangat tidak sabar ketika menekan tombol di mobil

and like, nothing happens for five seconds.

dan tidak ada yang terjadi dalam 5 detik.

So you will get really furious if it takes more than a split second

Anda akan kesal jika terjadi lebih dari sepersekian detik

to switch from virtual reality to real reality, so to say.

untuk berubah dari VR ke kenyataan asli.

And what you really want is it should feel more

Dan yang Anda inginkan adalah rasanya

like a well-orchestrated dance between the human and the machine

seperti tarian yang diatur dengan baik antara manusia dan mesin

on precision, very fast, immediate.

dengan presisi, sangat cepat, segera.

And the same is true then again, for the AI driving.

Dan sama juga, untuk mengemudi AI.

If it feels like a choppy ride,

Jika terasa banyak goncangan,

like if you are in an Uber from the 2020s,

seperti naik Uber di 2020-an,

this is not the experience you want to have.

ini bukan pengalaman yang Anda inginkan.

You want it to be smooth, getting beside the traffic

Anda ingin perjalanan lancar, berada di samping lalu lintas

and not like getting stuck all the time.

dan tidak suka terjebak sepanjang waktu.

Then let me go through the last layer on top of this,

Lalu lapisan terakhir dari ini semua,

which is the one that I find most exciting

adalah yang bagi saya, paling seru

because this is bringing together the full experience.

karena ini menggabungkan seluruh pengalaman.

And the comparison I'd like to make is a bit like a photograph.

Dan perbandingannya sedikit seperti foto.

A photograph can become a piece of art.

Foto dapat menjadi sebuah seni.

And it does so because it makes you stop, start thinking, search also for meaning.

Seperti itu karena membuat Anda berhenti, mulai berpikir, mencari artinya.

And you will have a similar impression with the software dream car

Anda akan punya kesan serupa dengan “software dream car”

because it will be able, when you have downloaded that NFT photograph,

karena itu mampu, setelah Anda mengunduh potret NFT,

hopefully not of a monkey or so,

semoga bukan monyet atau sejenisnya,

but some other kind of nice photograph,

namun potret yang indah,

and you want to put it on the outside of the vehicle,

dan Anda ingin menaruhnya diluar kendaraan,

well, you will actually be able to do that, no problem.

Anda dapat melakukannya, bukan masalah.

When you are creative and you want to change the functionality of the car,

Saat sedang kreatif dan ingin mengubah fungsi mobil,

well, you can program it, download it,

Anda dapat memprogramkan, mengunduh,

and it will do what you want to do.

dan dia akan melakukan yang Anda minta.

So again, you are in control of both the interior

Jadi, Anda mengontrol keduanya,

and the exterior experience of the vehicle.

pengalaman interior dan eksterior kendaraan.

You will also have sensors in all the surfaces,

Anda juga akan punya sensor di segala permukaannya,

so you can basically imagine

Anda bisa bayangkan

the car will be able to sense any tensions in your muscles

mobil akan mampu merasakan setiap ketegangan otot Anda

but also any bumps in the road, and it can adjust to both of them.

tapi juga setiap gundukan di jalan, dan bisa menyesuaikan keduanya.

Now, what’s actually surprising maybe: the technology is all there,

Yang mengagetkan mungkin: semua teknologi ada disana,

it's not the barrier.

itu bukan penghalang.

We have all the LiDARs, the radars, the cameras, the holograms.

Kita punya seluruh LiDAR, radar, kamera, hologram.

We have quantum computers.

Ada komputer kuantum.

We even have brain-computer interfaces,

Bahkan ada brain-computer interface,

and they are operational for many years.

dan telah beroperasi bertahun-tahun.

People have chips implanted, and it works.

Orang-orang menanam chip, dan berhasil.

So why don't we see those software dream cars on the road?

Lalu mengapa kita tidak melihat “software dream cars” itu di jalanan?

Well, it's a big step, right,

Ini adalah langkah besar, kan,

if we look at the automotive companies,

jika kita lihat perusahaan otomotif,

they obviously have managed to get cars on the road for more than 100 years.

mereka telah berhasil membuat mobil selama lebih dari 100 tahun.

But this step here requires so much new technology understanding data

Namun langkah ini membutuhkan banyak teknologi yang paham data

and the ability to innovate fast

dan kemampuan untuk cepat berinovasi

that it is a huge step forward for them.

yang merupakan langkah besar untuk mereka.

And you have about 15 million people working directly in the industry globally,

Ada sekitar 15 juta orang bekerja langsung di industri secara global,

plus another 50 to 100 that are in adjacent industries.

ditambah 50 sampai 100 di industri yang berdekatan.

And many of them will have to change, retrain, get into the new world.

Dan banyak yang harus berubah, berlatih kembali, masuk ke dunia baru.

So it's a long way to go.

Jadi perjalanan masih panjang.

And then you have the tech companies well, those guys, they go wild.

Ada perusahaan teknologi, yang akan menjadi liar.

They have also made us already addicted to smartphones

Mereka sudah membuat kita kecanduan smartphone

and media and so on.

dan media dan lainnya.

So I'm sure they can make us addicted as well to their car,

Saya yakin mereka juga bisa buat kita kecanduan mobil mereka,

but they shy away from the liabilities because at the end of the day,

Tapi mereka menghindar dari kewajiban karena pada akhirnya,

this is a life and death product.

ini adalah produk hidup dan mati.

So you need to be really careful about this.

Maka Anda perlu berhati-hati tentang ini.

So as we think about the future,

Jadi sambil berpikir tentang masa depan,

I'm totally convinced this will happen very soon, it's around the corner.

Saya sangat yakin ini akan terjadi segera,

Now the question will be: Is this now good or bad?

Sekarang pertanyaannya: Apakah ini baik atau buruk?

And that's a fair challenge.

Dan itu adalah hal yang adil.

Now, if we put it all together, it's actually complicated.

Jika kita satukan semuanya, akan kompleks.

Because first of all,

Karena pertama-tama,

that car will mostly be available for the rich few initially.

mobil akan tersedia untuk orang kaya.

Also, as I said before, it will upend the lives of many people

Juga, hal ini akan membalikkan kehidupan,

that are especially in mechanical jobs.

terutama yang bekerja di bidang mekanik.

You will have plenty of new jobs coming along,

Akan ada banyak lapangan kerja baru,

but they tend to be in totally different places

tetapi di tempat yang berbeda

and also in different skills.

dengan keahlian berbeda.

And also what's going to happen if you make a product more attractive,

Dan untuk membuat produk yang lebih menarik,

you will actually have many more of those on the street rather than fewer.

Akan ada lebih banyak mobil di jalan daripada berkurang,

So the good thing is, again,

Baiknya adalah, lagi-lagi,

you take out the human in the driving

mengeluarkan pengemudi

so it becomes a little bit more controlled and safe.

sehingga menjadi lebih terkontrol dan aman.

And then what about that “Little Red Corvette” from Prince

Lalu bagaimana dengan “Liitle Red Corvette” dari Prince

that we had a bit earlier?

di pembicaraan sebelumnya?

Well, it's also going to be quite different

Ini juga akan menjadi sedikit berbeda

because the software dream car

karena “software dream car”

will quite literally be able to read your mind,

mampu untuk membaca pikiran Anda,

which is kind of scary.

yang sebenarnya agak mengerikan.

But at the same time,

Namun bersamaan,

it also is really good at predicting what you want to have

juga mampu memprediksi hal yang diinginkan

and your preferences, which is kind of nice.

dan preferensimu, yang mana adalah baik.

And also the camera that you will have in the car

Dan juga kamera di mobil Anda

will actually be able to also detect when that little child has been left

akan mampu mendeteksi anak yang ditinggal

in the overheated vehicle

di kendaraan yang terlalu panas

and the vehicle is able to basically open the windows,

dan akan mampu membuka jendela,

put on the air conditioning,

menghidupkan AC,

call emergency services and save lives,

menelepon panggilan darurat dan menyelamatkan nyawa,

in their own way.

dengan cara mereka.

Now, the other big thing I want to point out is,

Hal besar lain yang ingin saya tunjukkan,

remember individuality, which is dead today?

ingat individualitas, yang tiada hari ini?

I think if we now look into the future,

Saya kira jika kita melihat masa depan,

we will actually see that the software dream car will enable you

kita akan sadar “software dream car” memungkinkan Anda

to really escape into a world that you can shape on yourself,

untuk lari ke dunia yang Anda inginkan,

both digitally and physically.

baik secara digital maupun fisik.

It is really up to you to make it your personal experience,

Terserah Anda untuk membuat pengalaman pribadi Anda,

again, in the virtual world and in the real world.

di dunia virtual dan dunia nyata.

It's going to be possible in a way

Ini mungkin cara yang

that is way further than anything that you have seen in any recent past.

lebih jauh dari yang pernah dilihat belakangan ini.

So if we take this all together,

Jadi, jika kita menggabungkan semua ini,

I guess the question comes down to:

Saya kira pertanyaannya akan menjadi:

Are you guys technology optimists or pessimists?

Apakah kalian optimis atau pesimis dengan teknologi?

And really what matters to me is over the next 20 years,

Dan yang penting adalah dalam 20 tahun ke depan,

when this software dream car will come to the real world,

ketika “software dream car” ada di dunia nyata,

it will be a bit like a white sheet of paper.

ini akan seperti selapis kertas putih.

It’s not good or bad [in] itself,

Tidak baik atau buruk di dalamnya,

but it is the largest real-life experiment of AI and humans interacting

tapi ini merupakan eksperimen nyata terbesar dalam interaksi AI dan manusia

on a daily basis.

di kehidupan sehari-hari.

So I would encourage all of you to embrace it, see the beauty,

Saya mengajak kalian semua untuk menerimanya, melihat keindahannya,

but also shape it

dan juga membentuknya

and drive it in a way that it is good for the wider humanity.

dan mendorongnya menjadi sesuatu yang baik untuk kemanusiaan yang lebih luas.

And I can only speak for myself to say

Dan

that I'm really excited about what the future holds for us.

saya bersemangat untuk melihat apa yang akan terjadi di masa depan.

But I guess for all of you, the question will be

Tapi mungkin untuk kalian, pertanyaannya adalah

when Rihanna will release a song in '28,

kapan Rihanna akan mengeluarkan lagu di ’28,

"Shut up and program your future self."

(Laughter)

(Tertawa)

Thank you very much.

Terima kasih banyak.

(Applause)

(Tepuk tangan)