Where on Earth Will People Live in the Future? | Parag Khanna | TED

翻译人员: Frank Xu

From the standpoint of human geography,

从人文地理的角度上，

why we live where we live in the world,

我们为什么住在 世界上我们居住的地方，

it's actually driven by a fairly categorically organized set of variables.

实际上是由一系列 相当分类化组织的变量驱使的。

Those variables are colliding, but you can actually segment them.

这些变量互相交叉， 但你实际上能将它们划分。

Demographic imbalances: the gap between young and old.

人口的不平衡： 年轻人口和老龄人口间的沟壑。

Young people move to countries where wealthy aging populations need them.

年轻人群搬到富有老龄化人群 所在且需要他们的国家。

That's been happening for generations.

这已经发生了几个世代。

Political upheaval: civil wars, international conflicts,

政治剧变：内战、内部冲突，

such as we're witnessing right now,

就像我们现在所见证的，

but of course, the 20th century had a lot of these as well.

但当然了，20 世纪也有过很多这些。

So large refugee flows, for example.

那么大量难民流动，来做例子。

Economic dislocation, like financial crises,

经济混乱，像金融危机，

when we have those people move away from areas

当我们有那些人

that have become deindustrialized, for example,

从被去工业化的地区搬走时，就比如，

like the Rust Belt of the United States or Southern Europe.

像是从美国或者欧洲南部的锈带。

Technological disruption.

技术颠覆。

That can be AI and automation,

那可以是AI或者自动化，

forcing you away from the place where you had a stable job.

迫使你从之前有稳定工作的地方搬走。

But it could also mean Zoom.

但它也可以是Zoom。

You can live anywhere, do this call, do your job from anywhere.

你可以住在任何地方，进行这线上对话， 在任何地方做你的工作。

So positive and negative.

所以有好有坏。

And of course, climate change,

还有当然了，气候变化，

which is actually the original driver of where we live,

它实际上是我们 住在哪里的原本驱动因素，

and it's coming back.

而它正卷土重来。

It was the driver of where humans have settled

它曾是人们在那里定居的驱动因素

for hundreds of thousands of years,

有成百上千年，

and now it's changing.

而现在它在改变。

And if you take all of these together and multiply it by the connectivity,

如果你把这些全部加一起 再用连接性做个乘法，

all of the infrastructure that we have built to enable human mobility,

所有我们建好来允许 人口流动的基础设施，

you get a world in which we’re going to use that capacity for mobility,

你将看到的是人们会去 使用那个流动限度，

and we're going to have mass migrations

而我们将会面临大规模人口迁移

potentially on a scale we've never seen before.

有可能以一个我们以前从没见过的规模。

And that's what I want to dive into a little bit right now.

而那是我现在想深入一点讨论的东西。

So let's start with the climate angle.

那么让我们从气候角度开始。

This map actually shows you the present distribution of the world population.

这张地图实际上给你展示了 目前世界人口的分配。

This is it, all of us, you,

就这了，我们所有人，你，

wherever you are, you are a pixel on this map.

不管你在哪， 你是这张地图上的一个像素点。

There's eight billion pixels here.

这里有八十亿像素点。

Now, watch what happens, tragically,

现在，看看会发生什么，悲剧的是，

as climate change advances

随着气候变化推进

and as what is called the suitability of a geography changes,

还有在被叫做地理的适宜性的改变，

in other words, the suitability for human habitation and survivability.

用其它话讲，人类居住 和生存的适宜性。

Now, what you just saw happen is an animation

现在，你刚看到的是一个动画

that reflects what’s called the Suitability Index,

它反映的是被叫做适宜性指数的东西，

derived from measurements of temperature change.

从对温度变化的测量得来。

There's obviously many other climate-related factors as well,

明显的也有很多其它气候相关的因素，

rising sea levels, among others.

海平面上升，还有其它。

But this is strictly based upon temperature.

但这个是单单基于温度的。

And red doesn't mean you cannot live there,

还有红色不代表你不能住在那，

but it means that it's becoming decreasingly suitable for human life,

但它意味着那里变得 越来越不适合人类生活，

whereas green means that relative to how it used to be,

而绿色代表着相比它之前，

it's becoming more suitable for human life.

它正变得更适合人类生活。

Now, this is the greatest irony in the entire world today.

那么，这是当今全世界上最大的讽刺。

I can think of no more profound paradox that we've ever encountered than this.

我想不出我们经历过的 任何比这个更加巨大的悖论。

Think about what I showed you before.

想想我刚给你看的。

Most of the human population lives in places

大部分人类住的地方

that are basically turning red.

都在变成红色。

The places that are green right now on your map

在地图上现在呈绿色的地区

are places that are depopulating.

是那些人口正在流失的地区。

Less and less people

越来越少的人

as a result of old age and mortality and low fertility rates.

由老龄化还有死亡率以及低出生率造成。

So the rich countries of the world, the United States, Canada,

那么世上富有的国家， 美国、加拿大、

Europe and so forth, Russia, Japan would actually be declining in population,

欧洲和其它，俄罗斯、日本 都实际上在人口上缩减，

Russia most certainly is,

俄罗斯肯定是，

were it not for immigration.

要不是有移民的话。

This is what we have to solve.

这是我们需要解决的。

This is the profound challenge.

这是巨大的挑战。

In one picture that's worth millions of words,

在一张背后有千言万语的图里，

this is the world that we seem to be headed towards.

这是我们所看起来正在迈向的世界。

We need to figure out how eight billion people reside on this landmass.

我们需要想出 80 亿人 怎样才能在这些土地上居住。

The territorial area on this map is 150 million square kilometers.

这张地图上的土地面积 是 1 亿 5 千万平方公里。

There are eight billion of us.

我们总共有 80 亿。

Where do we go to optimize our own survival as a species?

我们去哪里来优化 我们作为一个物种的生存？

And because of the lines that are missing on this map, the borders,

而因为这张地图上没有的线条， 也就是国境线，

this becomes a lot more difficult

这变得更加困难

than it would be if we could simply wander wherever we wanted to

比起我们能够简单地 去我们想去的地方来讲

the way we did when we were populating the continents

就像我们在各个大陆殖民时那样

over the last 100,000 years.

在过去 10 万年里。

Now, over the last 30 years,

现在，在过去 30 年，

this has been a stable migration arrangement in the world.

这是世界上稳定的迁移数据。

The largest number of people moving within and across regions

地区内和跨地区的最大搬迁人数

is documented for you here.

为你在此记录呈现。

And it's people within the former Soviet republics,

在前苏联的人们，

so Ukrainians to Russia, Russians to Ukraine.

也就是乌克兰到俄罗斯， 俄罗斯到乌克兰。

Now Ukrainians out of both Russia and Ukraine.

现在从乌克兰和俄罗斯搬离的乌克兰人。

South Asians moving to the Persian Gulf countries.

向波斯湾国家迁移的南亚人。

Latin Americans moving north into Central and North America.

向北前进进入中美洲和北美洲的拉美人。

Europeans within Europe and so on.

在欧洲内部的欧洲人等等。

This is what’s been steady flows, if you will, of people

这是至今稳定的流动， 如果你愿意这么说，人的流动

over the last 30 years.

在过去的 30 年里。

But the next 30 years won't be exactly the same.

但接下来的 30 年将不会完全一样。

And that we, again, don't have a map for,

对那个我们呢，再次的，没有地图，

there isn't even really a historical precedent

真的就没有历史先例

for that kind of movement across regions, across continents, as we might see.

那种跨地区、跨大陆的迁移, 就像我们可能看到的那样。

Now, the second demographic factor here is

那么，这里的第二个人口统计因素是

our overall world population.

我们的总体世界人口。

All of this is happening at a time when,

所有这些发生在一个时间当，

instead of the world reaching 15 billion people,

世界人口并非达到 150 亿，

as some predicted in the 1980s and 1990s,

像 1980 年代和 90 年代的 一些人预计的那样，

instead it could well be that our world population

而是我们的世界人口很有可能

never even reaches 10 billion people.

甚至不会达到 100 亿人。

So I call it peak humanity.

因此我叫它顶峰人口。

Fertility is declining.

生育率在降低。

Again, note the mismatch.

再次，注意这里的不一致。

The wealthy countries of the north

北端的富裕国家

are the ones that are shrinking in population,

是人口缩减的国家，

whereas young countries of the South and the developing world

而南部和发展中世界的年轻国家

still have very large, young populations.

仍有着非常大、年轻的人口。

And we need to find ways to correct that mismatch

而我们需要找到方法 来更正那个不一致

if we want to have a global population that is sort of, you know,

如果我们想要有一个那种，你知道，

stable and willing to reproduce.

稳定和愿意繁衍的全球人口。

Not that we want to have a population surge,

这并非是我们想要一次人口暴增，

but we don't want to crash either.

但我们也不想人口崩塌。

We need to think about how young people can cope with climate, with geopolitics,

我们需要去想年轻人 能如何应对气候、地缘政治、

with the economic pressure,

应对经济压力

and live in places where they can still produce

还有住在他们能够生育

a sizeable next generation of people.

数量可观的下一代的地方。

What's happening right now

现在正在发生的

is that young people aren't having any children.

是年轻人没在生孩子。

And that's going to actually lead

而事实上那将导致

to a very steep population crash in many ways.

一次从很多层面上来讲 非常严峻的人口崩塌。

So this got me thinking about how young people think.

所以这让我去想 年轻人是如何思考的。

And this forms a big part of the argument of the "Move" book,

而这组成了“迁移”的主要论据，

because when we, and I don't mean we as in every one of you,

因为当我们，而我说我们 并不是说你们每一个，

but when people who are say, my age or older, Gen X or,

而是那些比如，我这年纪或更年长的、 X 世代或者

you know, baby boomers,

你知道的，婴儿潮一代人，

we speak very confidently in this sort of,

我们非常自信地去发言，用这种，

you know, plural pronoun,

你知道的，复数形式代词，

you know, as if our views represent the views of people in the world.

你知道的，就好像我们的观点 代表了世界上其他人的观点。

Young people in cities who don’t have children who are struggling,

城市里没有孩子的 还有在苦斗的年轻人，

that’s the future of humanity.

他们是人类的未来。

It’s the present and the future of humanity.

是人类的现在还有未来。

And I'm interested in the things that we can do

而我感兴趣的是我们所能做的

to make life better for those people,

去改善那些人的生活，

because they are the present and the future

因为他们是现在也是未来，

of our species' population.

对我们物种的人口来说。

And they do think very differently from previous generations.

而他们确实和前几代人的 想法非常不同。

They're not loyal to nationality,

他们不忠于国籍，

they're more interested in certain sets of values.

他们更感兴趣的 是一系列的价值。

And those values, that have been very well documented,

而那些价值，被很好地记录过，

are the right to connectivity,

是拥有联系的权利、

a sustainable world and mobility, their own right to be mobile.

一个可持续世界和流动性、 他们自己可以四处流动的权力。

In fact, this is the most mobile generation in the history of the world,

事实上，这是世界历史上 最具流动性的一代，

because not only do we have the tools, the physical infrastructure to do it.

因为我们不只有工具， 实际的基础设施去流动。

But again, the things that have pinned people down primarily

而再一次，主要将人们固定在原地的

are home ownership and having children.

是房屋所有权还有生育。

But if people don't own homes and don't have children,

但如果人们不去拥有自己的家， 以及不生育，

then they are by definition quite mobile,

那么他们定义上就很流动，

especially if they're not even loyal to their home country

尤其是假如他们 不是单纯地为了爱国

for the sake of it.

而爱国。

And so where will young people go

那么年轻人会去哪里

is a very important question that I'm trying to answer.

是我正尝试解答的 一个非常重要的问题。

What are they looking for?

他们在寻找什么？

Places that offer opportunity,

充满机遇的地方、

work, particularly professional opportunities,

工作，尤其是职业机会、

educational opportunities, a decent quality of life,

教育机会、不错的生活质量、

political stability, climate stability,

政治稳定、气候稳定，

the basic things that you would expect.

你所能预见的基础的东西。

But we need to be clear that countries need to retrofit themselves,

但我们需要清楚知道 国家们需要改变自身，

retool themselves, to try and attract

找到新的工具，去尝试还有吸引

and provide those kinds of environments for young people.

以及提供那种环境 来给年轻人。

And that's where young people are going to want to go.

那将是年轻人会向往的地方。

And countries, I believe, are going to be engaged in a war

而国家们，我相信， 将进行一场战争

for young talent,

为了争夺年轻人才，

to attract those young people as they are aging.

在它们衰老时去吸引那些年轻人。

So there is a road map for us to untangle ourselves from this dilemma

那么有一份指南来给我们 来将我们解脱出以下困境

of geopolitical fragmentation,

地缘政治分裂，

a climate-stressed world,

受气候问题困扰的世界，

a declining population,

缩减的人口，

youth that are insecure.

及缺乏安全的年轻人。

What are we supposed to do?

我们该做什么？

Well, the thing is, you know, we can't predict the future,

嗯，这事吧，你知道， 我们不能预测未来，

but we can make scenarios.

但我们能去进行设想。

So I've constructed these four scenarios along these axes

我呢建立了这四种设想 根据这些

of more or less sustainability and more or less mobility.

多少关于可持续性和流动性的轴线。

And the truth is that all of these are visible today.

而事实是所有这些今天都能被看到。

We are in a world where regions like Europe act like fortresses.

我们存在的世界里类似欧洲的 地区像堡垒一样运作。

They're investing in their own sustainability,

它们在为自己的可持续性投资，

but they try to ward off migration.

但它们试着去排斥移民。

We live in a world that's medieval, a world that is conflictual,

我们住在一个像中世纪那样的世界里， 一个充满冲突的世界，

in which people are thrust into survival mode

在其中人们被迫打开求生模式

of hunter-gatherer lifestyles.

像狩猎采食时期那样的生活。

When there is a drought or when there's a flood

当有一场旱灾 或又一场洪水时

or they're fleeing civil war and conflict

或他们在逃离内战和冲突

and they're trying to cross borders like the US-Mexico border,

以及他们在尝试穿过 像美墨边境的国境线，

trying to cross the Mediterranean Sea,

尝试越过地中海，

where countries are engaged in land grabs and water wars to acquire resources.

在多国进行土地争夺和水资源战争 以获取资源的地方。

But we also live in a world where there are countries like Canada,

但是我们的世界也有比如加拿大的国家，

which is opening itself up, that's bringing in hundreds of thousands,

在打开自己的国门， 在引入数十万人，

about 400,000 new migrants every single year,

大概每年 40 万新移民，

one percent of its population.

占它全国人口的百分之一。

There are a couple of European countries

有几个欧洲国家

that are realizing that they need to do this as well,

正意识到它们也需要这么做，

and are kind of changing their tune around immigration.

也正某种程度上在改变移民态度。

And they're trying to do so in a sustainable way,

而它们也在尝试用一种 可持续的方式来这么做，

focusing on building affordable housing, decarbonizing their economies,

着重于建设经济住房、 将它们的经济去碳化

or at least reducing emissions and so forth.

或者至少是减少排放等等。

The fact is that all of these scenarios are happening at the same time.

事实上是所有这些设想 在同一个时间发生。

It's incumbent on us to shape the direction that the world goes in

决定在未来世界或我们所居住地区的

or that the regions that we live in go in, in the future.

前进方向对我们来说是义不容辞的。

Geography is what we make of it.

地理取决于我们。

You know, we have the tools at our disposal

你知道，我们手上有工具

to build a different model of civilization.

来筑造一个不同的文明模式。

And for me, that rests on two principles or two things that you can do.

对我而言，那依赖于两个原则 或两件你能做的事。

You are either moving people to places where there are resources

你要不是把人送去有丰富资源

that are abundant so they can survive,

来让他们能够生存的地方，

or you're moving technologies to people,

就是你把技术送给人们，

to the places where they need them.

送到人们需要它们的地方。

You're doing one of those two things.

你做的就是那两件事之一。

If you're not doing one of those two things,

如果你不在做那两件事里的一件，

you should think about how much you're helping the future, if you will,

你应该想想你在对未来提供多少帮助， 如果你愿意那么说的话，

and the people of the present and the future.

还有为当下和未来的人们。

The second is, I obviously advocate for mobility as a human right.

第二个是，很明显的 我支持流动性作为基本人权。

That doesn't mean that we tear down all borders.

那并不意味我们要抹去所有边境线。

It means that we create systems

那意味着我们创造出系统

where the mismatches between old and young,

来把老龄和青年，

labor shortages and labor supply,

劳力不足和劳力供应，

sustainable and unsustainable locations is corrected.

可持续和不可持续地点间的 差异进行更正。

And we can do that, but we don't.

且我们能那么做，但我们不去做。

We obviously have to think beyond sovereignty,

明显的我们必须将思维越过国家主权，

therefore to stewardship of the global commons.

也就是放眼全球共同利益的管理。

We have to pre-design these habitats of the future,

我们必须提前设计这些未来居住地，

which is to say, thinking about allowing people to be perpetually mobile

也就是说，思考允许人们长期流动

as they need to be in response to geopolitics,

在他们需要对地缘政治进行反应时，

in response to climate change,

对气候变化反应时，

but do so in a way that doesn't trample upon the environment.

但要用一个不会破坏环境的方法。

Whitney Pennington Rodgers: TED Member Kim has a question.

惠特尼 · 佩灵顿 · 罗德杰斯： “TED Member 金有一个问题。”

Kim asks, "Immigration to the US seems impossible.

金问道，“移民到美国看起来不可能。

How do we shift the attitude towards welcoming immigrants here in the US?"

我们如何在美国这里 将态度向欢迎移民改变？”

And their question is US-focused, but I think this can apply anywhere.

他的问题是专注于美国的， 但我认为这对哪里都适用。

How do we shift the attitude everywhere to welcoming people into borders?

我们要怎样让所有地方的态度 都转变为欢迎人们到他们的国境内呢?

PK: It is a universally relevant question, especially again, in the developed,

PK：这是一个普遍有价值的问题， 尤其是再次，在发达、

mature Western economies and societies

成熟的西方经济和社会

that have had a lot of friction and a lot of backlash

那些已经有着很多摩擦 还有很多反对

and caution about large-scale immigration,

以及对大规模移民的谨慎，

at least in the last, say, 10, 15 years.

至少在过去的，大概，10，15 年。

And that's the US, Canada, you know, Western European countries, Japan,

而那是美国，加拿大，你知道的， 西欧国家、日本，

all of them are changing to some degree.

它们所有都在进行一定程度的改变。

The question is how rapidly?

问题是有多快？

You know, Canada really stands out as a country that's welcoming in,

你知道，加拿大作为一个欢迎移民的国家 真的独树一帜，

as I mentioned before, you know, 400,000 people a year,

就像我之前提到的，你知道的， 40 万人一年，

one percent of its population, as a target growth.

它人口的百分之一， 作为一个增长目标。

But the US, you know, as bureaucratic as it is,

但是美国，你知道的， 它实际就是官僚主义，

as contentious as it is,

就是充满争论，

and the fact that during the Trump years,

还有在特朗普的任期几年，

immigration began to decline and then because of COVID, you know,

移民开始减少 又然后因为新冠，你知道的，

became even harder.

变得甚至更难了。

But let me tell you something very special about America.

但让我告诉你关于美国很特殊的事。

This year, according to a congressional delegation I just hosted in Singapore,

今年，据我刚在新加坡接待的 一个国会代表团说

the US will probably have one million new migrants this year.

美国今年大概会接受一百万移民。

One million.

一百万。

I want to be absolutely clear.

我想要做到绝对明确。

No country on Earth goes from 200,000 to one million overnight by design.

地球上没有任何国家能计划好 一夜间从二十万跳到一百万。

And that's America, right?

而那就是美国，对吗？

So everything that's not gone well in immigration can be fixed

所以移民方面的问题可以被修复

and positively overcompensated by the kinds of reforms

并由当下在进行的一些类型的改革

that are underway today: H-1B reforms, refugee reforms,

来进行有利过度代偿： H-1B移民改革、难民改革、

skilled migration reforms, digitizing immigration,

技术移民改革、数字化移民，

carrying over a certain,

推到现在继续进行，从一些

you know, frozen quotas from the past.

你知道的，从过去的目标。

All of these things are actually happening.

所有这些事情实际上都在发生。

Should it have happened years ago? Yes.

它应该在多年前就进行吗？是的。

Should it be happening faster? Yes.

它应该进行地更快吗？是的。

Should immigration policy be done in a way in which we focus

移民政策是否应该被基于一种方法制定,

on the shortages in our labor force, which are so many?

基于我们专注劳力短缺的方法， 而短缺有很多？

We're hurting our own economy by having such a slow immigration process.

因为有个这么慢的移民过程 我们在伤害我们自己的经济。

We should have done all of this a lot earlier and to a larger degree,

我们应该在老早以前 还有以更大程度去做到这所有，

and this would have depoliticized immigration.

而要是这么做移民就已经被去政治化了。

So it's been to our own detriment.

这对我们自己不利。

But can America actually fix these things faster than than we, you know,

但是美国真的可以修复这些东西， 快于我们，你知道，

very rightly, cynically,

很正当地、悲观地，

especially if you've been on the wrong side of the immigration story

尤其是如果你有在移民故事的另一面呆过

and you've failed to cross a T on a form and it sets you back like, two years,

并且你没有满足表格上的一个指标 然后它让你进度倒退，比如两年，

you know, you're rightly angry and cynical about it.

你知道，你对它感到 气愤和悲观是正当的。

I mean, I'm an immigrant myself, I didn't move to America till I was six.

我是说，我自己就是一个移民， 我到六岁才搬到美国。

I remember becoming a citizen, I know my parents sweated that paperwork,

我记得自己成为一名公民， 我知道我父母为那些文件努过力，

I watched them do it.

我亲眼看着他们努力。

But these things can be fixed

但这些东西可以被修正

and no one can fix it like America can, that's for sure.

而且没人能像美国那样去修正， 那是肯定的。

So there's a lot of hope in that.

所以说有很多希望。

And again, European countries are changing.

而再一次，欧洲国家在改变。

Germany brought in, you know, more than a million,

德国引入了，你知道，超过一百万，

again, not by design, not intentionally, but think about the Syrian refugee crisis.

再一次，没事先计划，不是蓄意， 但想想叙利亚难民危机。

More than a million people arrived in Germany.

超过一百万人到了德国。

A lot of them have stayed.

他们中很多留了下来。

More are coming now from Ukraine.

现在有更多正从乌克兰来。

And they've managed their politics

而他们管控他们的政治

to fend off, you know, right-wing populist parties.

去挡开右翼民粹政党。

They have a center-left coalition right now.

现在他们有一个中左联和政府。

So Canada, the US, Germany, the UK, despite Brexit,

加拿大、美国、德国、 英国，尽管它脱欧了，

it's easier to move to the UK today than during Brexit.

在今天搬到英国 比在它脱欧时容易。

I’m not sure people realize this.

我不确定人们是否意识到这个。

Because they again have had massive shortages in nursing and truck drivers,

因为英国又一次有巨大的 护理人员和货运司机，

you name it.

还有其他职业短缺。

So there's just two kinds of countries in the world,

所以世上简单地有两种国家，

those that have realized they need more migrants

那些意识到它们需要更多移民的

and those that haven't, right?

还有那些没意识到的，对吗？

And those in the former category are the smarter ones.

而那些属于前者的是聪明的。

And they're going to come out ahead in the war for young talent.

而他们将在争夺青年人的战争里领先。

WPR: TED member Heidi has a question,

WPR：TED Member 海蒂有个问题，

"We've seen that governments and countries veer nationalistic and xenophobic

“我们看到了政府和国家们 在有难民潮的时候

when there are a flood of immigrants.

向民族主义和排外转变。

How can we future-proof our democratic systems against this reactionary outcome?"

我们该怎样针对这个反应 来保障我们民主系统的未来？”

PK: For one thing, you know, I don't posit that immigration itself,

PK：一方面，你知道， 我并不假定移民本身，

as in "let the people in," is some kind of panacea.

也就是“让人们来，” 是某种万用灵药。

I am a strong believer in assimilation.

我是同化的坚定信徒。

And one of the key things around future proofing

而围绕保障未来的重点之一

is maintaining your kind of, national ethos,

是保持你所属的，国家精神，

national identity, national culture.

国家认同，国家文化。

But culture doesn't mean the way things were for the last 400 years,

但是文化不是指 400 年前的常态，

and it's never allowed to change from that, right?

以及永不允许变更，对吧？

That's a very archaic, you know,

那是一种非常老古董，你知道，

ethnically and sort of, chauvinistic approach to the issue.

对这个问题种族化和比较， 沙文主义的解决方法。

Culture is valuable.

文化是有价值的。

Culture evolves, culture changes.

文化会进化，文化会改变。

If you look at a country like Canada,

如果你看一下一个像加拿大的国家，

again, multiculturalism is the identity of the country.

再一次，多元文化是那国家的身份认同。

The UK is changing its rules to make it easier to come in.

英国正在改变它的法规 以便让移民更容易。

That's a fact.

那是事实。

It's a legal fact that you can now come into the UK without a job offer,

法律上的事实是你现在 能在没有聘用书的情况下到英国，

without paying a security bond.

不需要支付保证金。

We've got these massive immigration reforms.

我们有这些巨大的移民改革。

So, Japan, there have never been as many foreigners in Japan

那么，日本呢，从没有过 这么多外国人在日本

as there are today.

像今天这么多。

So even in a place that we think of as very culturally insular, right,

也就是说甚至在一个我们 认为文化非常保守的地方，对，

even there, you've got a large-scale migration.

甚至在那儿，也有大规模移民。

So there is zero, zero truth to the statement

也就是说完全没有，没有任何依据 支持那个说法

that the world is governed by right wing,

说世界是由右翼、

xenophobic populists that are anti-immigrant.

排外民族且反移民的人治理的。

It is precisely the exact factual opposite of that, right?

事实是准确且完全与它相反的，知道吧？

The important countries of the world

世界上重要的国家

are governed by pragmatic leaders

是由追求实效的领袖治理的

that are recognizing the importance of large-scale immigration

他们承认大规模移民 作为他们经济健康

as part of their economic health and their social dynamism.

和社会动性一部分的重要性。

That is how the important countries in the world are run today.

那是如今世界上重要国家 被治理的方式。

That's the way they have been run for 75 years.

那是它们过去 75 年被治理的方式。

If that weren't true, we wouldn't be having this conversation

若那不是真的，我们就不会有这次对话

because, you know, all of us who are migrants wouldn't have migrated.

因为，你知道，所有身为移民的我们 就不会有移过民了。

We never would have been let in.

我们就不会被允许入境了。

WPR: There are some people who may push back on that, right,

WPR：有些人可能会反对那个，对，

and say that, well, we still see struggles with inequality

并说，好吧，我们仍旧看到 对不平等的抗争

and that, you know, things are not fair and great

还有，你知道，对移民到那些国家的人

for people who do come to those countries.

不公平和不好的事情。

And I wonder if there are specific things that you think could be done better

而我想知道是否有特定的东西 是你认为甚至在那些领域

even in those spaces,

能被做得更好的，

but that are really success stories

但实际上是成功实例

that I think nations that are looking to invite people in

是我认为希望邀请人们移民的国家

can really take on to ensure that everyone does feel

真的能够取经来确保 所有人真的感觉

like they have a good life.

他们生活不错。

PK: There are really good lessons learned,

PK：是有相当不错的教训，

and this is not pie-in-the-sky thinking.

而这不是天上掉馅饼思维。

This is one of the major areas of political social research,

这是政治社会研究主要领域之一，

which is to say, what can we do?

也就是去说，我们能做什么？

So if you look at smaller European countries like,

如果你看看比较小的欧洲国家比如，

let's say the Netherlands, right,

就说荷兰，对，

they have a really strong language adoption policy.

他们有一项强力的语言推行政策。

There is no way you'll get Dutch citizenship unless you've learned Dutch,

除非你学会了荷兰语 没有任何方法变成荷兰公民，

for example.

这是个例子。

And Germany is making this clear as well in a much larger country,

德国作为一个大国家也把这说的很清楚，

which is, you know, you definitely have to learn German.

也就是，你知道，你肯定要去学德语。

And I think that's actually pretty important.

而我认为那其实相当重要。

I don't seek to suppress people's original, you know,

我并不想去压制人们原本的，你知道，

identities and their languages.

身份认同还有语言。

But it is a fact that if you actually want to not be a burden

但是事实如果你真不想成为

on your host society,

你移民国的累赘，

but actually be a contributor and be welcomed by, liked by,

而是真的想做一位贡献者 并受到欢迎、喜爱、

respected by all segments of the society that is your new home,

尊重，来自作为你新家的社会各层，

you will do a much better job of it if you learn the language.

如果你学会了语言你会做得好很多。

And this is like, you know, the kind of thing we’d say, OK, well,

这些就像，你知道，那些东西 那些我们会说，嗯，好吧

can't we spend a few bucks on that?

我们不能在那上面多花点钱吗？

You know, how about we allocate some money to do some language training,

你知道，我们分配点钱来 做些语言培训怎样，

and that would actually go a really long way.

而那将真的会大有帮助。

So jobs, skills, education, language, public housing.

工作、技能、教育、 语言、低收入住房。

So, this is something that’s done in Singapore, where I live right now.

这是在新加坡，也就是我现在住的地方 做到的一些事。

You know, you've got universal public housing.

你知道，这里有全民低收入住房。

And if we did more around affordable housing,

而如果我们针对经济住房做了更多，

that would diminish the inequality,

那将减小不平等，

and inequality obviously skews in many countries,

而不平等明显地在很多国家有倾向，

in immigrant societies,

在移民社会，

towards the newly-arrived people who don't have the economic means.

倾向没有经济手段的新移民。

So well, we can fix that, right?

那么好，我们能改正那个，对不？

I mean, there's a physical solution to inadequate public housing.

我是说，低收入住房不足 有一个实际解决办法。

It's called building more housing, right?

那就是建更多房子，对吧？

And you know, if you look at places again, like Canada,

而你知道，如果再次你看看一些地方， 像加拿大、

the Netherlands, France, this is happening in Finland.

荷兰、法国， 这在芬兰正在发生。

Lots of countries are building lots more affordable housing

很多国家在建更多的经济住房

and it's actually helping to change some of the local tensions.

而那真的在帮助改变当地的一些矛盾。

So these answers emerge not from pie-in-the-sky thinking,

所以这些答案并不是 来自天上掉馅饼的思维，

but from the real experience of real countries.

而是从真正国家的真实经验而来。

And there are real policymakers and journalists

并且有真正的立法人和记者

and civil servants who have done these things.

还有公仆做过这些事。

It's good news that there's really a pretty clear road map

好消息是真的有一份清晰的指南

on how to do this and how to make people feel welcome

关于如何做这事和让人们感到受到欢迎

and how to have everyone again, be better off.

以及如何让每个人， 再说一次，过得更好。

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