The Growing Megafire Crisis — and How to Contain It | George T. Whitesides | TED

翻译人员: Yuqian Zhang 校对人员: suya f.

My wife grew up in Santa Rosa, California,

我的妻子在加利福尼亚州圣罗莎长大

and her best friend was a woman named Joy Durand

她最好的朋友是一位 名叫乔伊·杜兰德的女人

who lived on the northeast outskirts of town.

她住在城镇的东北郊。

At midnight on the evening of October 8, 2017,

2017年10月8日晚半夜，

Joy's telephone rang.

乔伊的电话响了。

The voice said simply,

那声音简单地说：

"You must evacuate now.

“你现在必须撤离。

You don't have time to pack.

你没有时间收拾行李。

Fire is coming."

火来了。”

Joy gathered her parents and her six-year-old son,

乔伊聚集了她 的父母和她六岁的儿子，

and they hurried outside.

他们急忙跑出去。

The wildfire, which at that point was just over the ridge from Joy's house,

野火当时就在乔伊家的山脊上，

sounded like a jet engine going at full throttle.

听起来就像喷气发动机全速运转。

The family got in their car, drove away,

一家人上了车，开走了，

and within minutes, their home had burned to the ground,

几分钟之内，他们的家就被烧毁了，

incinerated by the blowtorch flames of the Tubbs Fire.

被塔布斯大火的喷灯火焰焚烧。

All night long, my wife got texts and messages from friends and family,

整个晚上，我的妻子都收到朋友 和家人发来的短信和消息，

and while we didn’t know the whole situation,

虽然我们不知道整个情况，

it was clear that a disaster was unfolding in her hometown.

很明显，她的家乡 正在发生一场灾难。

No one thought that fire could penetrate so deeply into the city.

谁也没想到，

大火能够深入城市如此之深。

But on that evening,

但就在那天晚上，

22 people lost their lives

22人丧生

and over five thousand homes and structures were destroyed.

五千多座房屋和建筑被毁。

Wildfire is a large and growing challenge to the West and to the world.

野火对西方和世界来说 是一个巨大且日益严峻的挑战。

What happened in Santa Rosa is becoming all too common.

圣罗莎发生的事情变得司空见惯。

Paradise in 2018, Australia in 2020, Europe in 2022.

2018 年天堂，

2020 年澳大利亚， 2022 年欧洲。

And fire experts say

消防专家表示

that we should get ready for more Santa Rosas

我们应该为更多的圣罗莎做好准备

because it's likely to get worse before it gets better.

因为在好转之前情况 可能会变得更糟。

Now beyond the major costs

现在超出​​了主要成本

in lives and property and the economy,

在生命、财产和经济方面，

there's also a big carbon impact to wildfire.

野火也会产生很大的碳影响。

In fact, the additional carbon from California's 2020 wildfires

事实上，2020 年加州 山火产生的额外碳

was greater than the carbon

大于碳

that Californians had worked so hard to save

加州人付出了如此多的努力来拯救

over the previous two decades.

在过去的二十年里。

The largest fires are called megafires.

最大的火灾称为特大火灾。

These are the ones that burn over 100,000 acres

这些是烧毁面积 超过 100,000 英亩的

with the intensity that can threaten aquifers and biodiversity,

其强度可能威胁到含水层 和生物多样性，

and even cause forest conversion,

甚至导致森林转变，

in which trees are so damaged that they just don't grow back.

树木受到严重破坏， 无法再生长。

These fires are getting worse as well.

这些火灾也变得越来越严重。

In fact, eight of the ten largest megafires in California history

事实上，加州历史上 十大特大火灾中的八场

have happened over just the last five years.

就在过去五年里发生的事情。

Many people feel overwhelmed by this situation.

许多人对这种情况感到不知所措。

I know I did.

我知道我做到了。

So two years ago, working with great people,

所以两年前， 和伟大的人一起工作，

I closed a chapter of my life in aerospace

我在航空航天领域结束了人生的篇章

and I started a new journey

我开始了新的旅程

to see if I could understand the wildfire crisis better

看看我是否能更好地 理解野火危机

and what could be done about it.

以及对此可以采取什么措施。

I started working with leaders from firefighting and philanthropy,

我开始与消防 和慈善界的领导者合作，

entrepreneurship, science, tribal communities,

创业、科学、部落社区、

and together we cofounded an organization called Megafire Action,

我们共同创立了一个名为 “Megafire Action”的组织，

whose sole purpose is to solve the megafire crisis.

其唯一目的是解决特大火灾危机。

And I've come to believe that if we take a holistic approach,

我开始相信， 如果我们采取整体方法，

we have an opportunity to establish a new relationship with fire,

我们有机会与火建立新的关系，

to work safely with fire

安全用火工作

and potentially to solve this wicked problem.

并有可能解决这个棘手的问题。

The path forward has three solutions.

前进的道路有三个解决方案。

The first is fire-adapted communities,

首先是适应火灾的社区，

the second is resilient landscapes

第二个是有弹性的景观

and the third is innovative fire management.

三是创新消防管理。

So for the first, fire-adapted communities,

因此，对于第一个适应火灾的社区，

what we need to do is to clear the brush and the vegetation from homes,

我们需要做的是清除家里 的灌木丛和植被，

from the immediate proximity of homes.

离家很近。

Next, we need to use fire-resistant materials

接下来我们需要使用耐火材料

in the homes and the roofs.

在房屋和屋顶上。

And then the third thing is to, where possible,

然后第三件事是，在可能的情况下，

protect against embers, flying embers,

防止余烬、飞扬的余烬，

by protecting the home from openings like your air vents and your chimneys.

保护房屋免受通风口 和烟囱等开口的影响。

Now communities have a strong shared interest

现在社区有强烈的共同利益

to perform this work along the exterior boundary of the community

沿着社区的外部边界进行这项工作

because it reduces the chance

因为它减少了机会

that fire will penetrate deeply into the city,

大火将深入城市，

as it did in Santa Rosa.

就像在圣罗莎那样。

The second solution is resilient landscapes.

第二个解决方案是弹性景观。

And if you take one lesson from this talk, it's this.

如果你从这次演讲中 学到了一个教训，那就是这个。

In order to solve the megafire crisis,

为了解决特大火灾危机，

we need to bring our western landscapes back into a healthy balance

我们需要让西部景观恢复健康平衡

by reducing the overgrown brush and trees in the wildlands and the forest.

减少荒地和森林中杂草丛生 的灌木丛和树木。

Here we're finally starting to take to heart the wisdom

在这里，我们终于 开始将智慧铭记于心

of the Indigenous peoples of the Americas

美洲原住民

who knew that fire was a natural part of the landscape

谁知道火是景观的自然组成部分

and who introduced low-intensity fire, good fire, on a regular basis,

并定期引入低强度火、强火，

at the right times.

在正确的时间。

When this is done well,

当这件事做得好时，

as around the communities of South Lake Tahoe,

和南太浩湖的社区一样，

then it can actually divert a megafire

那么它实际上可以转移大火

as bad as the one that they experienced in 2021.

就像他们在 2021 年 经历的一样糟糕。

It can also potentially prevent a megafire from occurring,

它还可以潜在地 防止特大火灾的发生，

which is what some people think happened in Napa of last year.

有些人认为这就是 去年纳帕发生的事情。

But the scale of this challenge is huge.

但这一挑战的规模是巨大的。

There are hundreds of millions of acres of wildland in the American forests.

美国森林中有数亿英亩的荒地。

The Forest Service hopes to reduce the risk

林务局希望降低风险

on 50 million high-priority acres over the next ten years.

未来十年将占地 5000 万英亩。

But the challenge is that they're only accomplishing a few million acres a year.

但挑战在于他们每年 只能完成几百万英亩的种植面积。

And so we're not at the pace or scale

所以我们还没有达到 这样的速度或规模

that we need to do to address this challenge.

我们需要采取行动来应对这一挑战。

So what do we need to do?

那么我们需要做什么呢？

Well, the first thing that we need to do

好吧，我们需要做的第一件事

is to essentially hire, train and retain many more workers

本质上是雇佣、 培训和留住更多的工人

who will be doing the hard work of defusing the time bombs

谁将承担拆除定时炸弹的艰巨工作

inside our western forests.

在我们西部的森林里。

We need to pay them well.

我们需要给他们丰厚的报酬。

We need to support them with full-time work

我们需要用全职工作来支持他们

and we need to protect them from liability where necessary.

我们需要在必要时 保护他们免于承担责任。

The next thing we need to do is to empower them with innovation.

我们接下来要做的 就是赋予他们创新能力。

And right now there are an incredible number of great companies

现在有数量惊人的伟大公司

and organizations that are working to bring this innovation to reality.

以及致力于将这 一创新变为现实的组织。

Just one of these companies is called BurnBot,

其中一家公司 叫做 BurnBot，

and what they're hoping to do

以及他们希望做什么

is to make controlled burns safer and faster.

是为了使受控烧伤更安全、更快。

They're going to establish a burned perimeter around an area

他们将在一个区域周围建立 一个烧毁的边界

with the remotely piloted rover

与遥控漫游车

and then they can bring a drone into the middle of it,

然后他们可以把无人机带到中间，

drop some fire into it and burn that interior area safely.

将一些火放入其中并 安全地烧毁内部区域。

It's a brilliant but a simple idea.

这是一个绝妙但简单的想法。

And I think we're going to need a lot more of this kind of innovation

我认为我们将需要更多此类创新

if we're going to scale up to the to the size of the problem

如果我们要扩大到问题的规模

that we have before us.

摆在我们面前的。

Now the first two solutions that I've talked to you about

现在我和你讨论的前两个解决方案

are pretty well agreed.

非常同意。

The third one, innovative fire management, is somewhat more controversial,

第三个是创新 的消防管理，争议较大，

but I think it offers huge potential to address and solve the wildfire problem.

但我认为它为应对和解决野火 问题提供了巨大的潜力。

What we need is innovation and technology that can rapidly detect and assess fire

我们需要的是能够快速检测 和评估火灾的创新和技术

and then quickly put it out when it gets bad.

然后当它变坏时迅速将其熄灭。

And here, speed is paramount,

在这里，速度至关重要，

because when you're in the worst kind of fire days --

因为当你正处于 火灾最严重的日子里——

these are the hottest, driest and windiest fire days --

这些是最热、最干燥、 风最大的火灾日——

if you can't bring fire management resources to a fire very quickly,

如果你不能很快将 消防管理资源带到火场，

then it is likely that you won't be able to contain that fire.

那么你很可能无法控制火势。

Here we need to look at the example

这里我们需要看一下例子

of the Quick Reaction Force of Southern California,

南加州快速反应部队，

which is really designed in some ways for these toughest days.

它在某些方面确实是为 这些最艰难的日子而设计的。

The QRF is a public-private partnership,

QRF 是一个公私合作伙伴关系，

which now has three Chinook helicopters.

现在拥有三架支奴干直升机。

These are the big ones with the two rotors on the top.

这些是顶部有两个转子的大转子。

And each of them can drop up to 3000 gallons of water on a fire,

每个可以向火中 喷射 3000 加仑的水，

day or night,

白天或晚上，

and they can do it very precisely.

他们可以非常精确地做到这一点。

They can also refill up to six times an hour

它们每小时最多可补充六次

so they can bring a lot of mass to the problem.

所以他们可以 给问题带来很大的影响。

Over the course of two years of demonstrations,

在两年的示威活动中，

the QRF has demonstrated that this model has great potential,

QRF 证明了该模型具有 巨大的潜力，

that, in fact, if you can bring a lot of fire management resource

那其实如果你能带大量的消防资源

to a fire very quickly,

很快就会着火，

you can get on top of fires before they get big and unmanageable.

您可以在火势变得更大 且难以控制之前将其扑灭。

And this opens up an exciting potential future.

这开启了一个令人兴奋的潜在未来。

Imagine this model with a series of larger drone vehicles

想象一下这个模型 有一系列更大的无人机

distributed across the landscape in higher-fire-risk areas.

分布在火灾风险较高的地区。

Imagine these vehicles positioned periodically

想象一下这些车辆周期性定位

along utility lines

沿着公用事业线

or in areas of higher fire-risk deep in the forest.

或森林深处火灾风险较高的地区。

Such a distributed network, if connected to the right sensor system,

这样的分布式网络， 如果连接到正确的传感器系统，

could offer a future

可以提供未来

in which we are able to really put out fires

我们能够真正扑灭火灾

on the worst fire days, and even in remote communities.

在火灾最严重的日子， 甚至在偏远社区。

Companies like Rain and Joby Aviation are working on this vision today.

Rain 和 Joby Aviation 等公司

目前正在努力实现这一愿景。

The sensor system will also be very important

传感器系统也将非常重要

for the resolution of this problem.

为了解决这个问题。

The system -- which will entail

该系统将需要

both ground-based, aerial and space-based platforms --

地面、空中和天基平台——

won't be important just because we're going to be able to see

不会仅仅因为 我们能够看到而变得重要

and detect fire where and when it pops up,

并检测火灾发生的地点和时间，

but also because it'll enable us

还因为它将使我们能够

to differentiate between good and bad fire,

区分好火和坏火，

low-intensity fire and high-intensity fire,

低烈度火灾和高烈度火灾，

which is very important because we need more lower-intensity fire on the landscape

这非常重要，因为我们需要 在景观上进行更多低强度的火灾

to rejuvenate our forests,

使我们的森林恢复活力，

just as much as we need to know

正如我们需要知道的那样

where and when fire risk is becoming higher intensity.

火灾风险变得更高的地点和时间。

Fire is a prism through which we can see the future

火是一面棱镜， 通过它我们可以看到未来

of humanity's relationship with natural systems.

人类与自然系统的关系。

Working together and supported by technology,

共同努力并以技术为支持，

we can build a world in which communities are resilient to wildfire

我们可以建设一个社区 能够抵御野火的世界

and in which forests are brought back into a healthy balance.

并使森林恢复健康平衡。

Ultimately, we can build a future,

最终，我们可以建设一个未来，

in which we don't just manage fire to protect human life and property,

我们管理火灾不仅是为了 保护人类生命和财产，

but also to protect the biosphere for global carbon emissions

还要保护生物圈，减少全球碳排放

and for biodiversity.

以及生物多样性。

Ultimately, we need to become the crew of Spaceship Earth.

最终，我们需要成为 地球号宇宙飞船的船员。

So let's get to work.

那么让我们开始工作吧。

Let's learn from fire

让我们从火中学习

and let's build a resilient, sustainable future.

让我们建设一个有弹性、 可持续的未来。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）