The Growing Megafire Crisis — and How to Contain It | George T. Whitesides | TED

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Shelley Tsang 曾雯海

My wife grew up in Santa Rosa, California,

我太太在加州的聖羅莎長大，

and her best friend was a woman named Joy Durand

她最好的朋友喬伊‧杜蘭 住在小鎮東北的郊區。

who lived on the northeast outskirts of town.

At midnight on the evening of October 8, 2017,

2017 年十月八日半夜， 喬伊的電話響了。

Joy's telephone rang.

The voice said simply,

電話中的聲音就只是說： 「你現在必須要撤離。

"You must evacuate now.

You don't have time to pack.

沒有時間打包。

Fire is coming."

大火燒過來了。」

Joy gathered her parents and her six-year-old son,

喬伊叫醒她的父母 和六歲兒子，衝到屋外，

and they hurried outside.

The wildfire, which at that point was just over the ridge from Joy's house,

那時，野火已經燒到 離喬伊屋不遠的山脊上，

sounded like a jet engine going at full throttle.

聲音聽起來像是 全速運轉的噴射引擎。

The family got in their car, drove away,

這家人馬上開車離開，

and within minutes, their home had burned to the ground,

在幾分鐘之內，

他們的家就完全燒毀，

被塔布斯大火的高溫烈焰燒為灰燼。

incinerated by the blowtorch flames of the Tubbs Fire.

All night long, my wife got texts and messages from friends and family,

整晚，我太太不斷收到 來自家人朋友的訊息，

and while we didn’t know the whole situation,

雖然我們不清楚整個狀況，

it was clear that a disaster was unfolding in her hometown.

但很顯然她的家鄉 正處在一場災難中。

No one thought that fire could penetrate so deeply into the city.

沒有人料到，大火能 如此深入到城市中。

But on that evening,

但那晚，

二十二人喪命，

22 people lost their lives

and over five thousand homes and structures were destroyed.

超過五千間房子和建物被摧毀。

Wildfire is a large and growing challenge to the West and to the world.

野火是個巨大且越來越大的挑戰，

對西方和對全世界都是如此。

What happened in Santa Rosa is becoming all too common.

聖羅莎的遭遇開始變得太過常見。

Paradise in 2018, Australia in 2020, Europe in 2022.

2018 年發生在天堂鎮，

2020 年發生在澳洲， 2022 年發生在歐洲。

And fire experts say

大火專家說，我們要準備面對

that we should get ready for more Santa Rosas

更多像聖羅莎的狀況，因為狀況 在好轉之前很可能會變得更糟。

because it's likely to get worse before it gets better.

Now beyond the major costs

除了付出巨大的成本，包括生命、

in lives and property and the economy,

財產，和經濟，

there's also a big carbon impact to wildfire.

野火還會帶來重大的碳衝擊。

In fact, the additional carbon from California's 2020 wildfires

事實上，2020 年加州野火 所產生的額外碳量

was greater than the carbon

超過了

加州在過去二十年間相當努力

that Californians had worked so hard to save

over the previous two decades.

節約下來的量。

The largest fires are called megafires.

最大型的火災稱為超級大火。

These are the ones that burn over 100,000 acres

指的是會燒掉超過 十萬英畝面積的大火，

with the intensity that can threaten aquifers and biodiversity,

強度會威脅到含水層和生物多樣性，

and even cause forest conversion,

甚至可能造成森林轉換，

in which trees are so damaged that they just don't grow back.

也就是樹木受損太嚴重， 不可能再長回來。

These fires are getting worse as well.

這些火災也變得越來嚴重，事實上，

In fact, eight of the ten largest megafires in California history

加州史上最大的 超級大火，十次中有八次

have happened over just the last five years.

都發生在過去五年間。

Many people feel overwhelmed by this situation.

這個情況讓許多人不知所措。

I know I did.

我知道我是其一。

So two years ago, working with great people,

所以，兩年前， 我和很出色的人合作，

I closed a chapter of my life in aerospace

我結束了我在航空業的職涯，

and I started a new journey

展開全新的旅程，

to see if I could understand the wildfire crisis better

想看看

我是否能更了解野火危機，

and what could be done about it.

以及可以做些什麼。

I started working with leaders from firefighting and philanthropy,

我開始和各界領袖合作，包括消防、

慈善、企業家精神、科學、

entrepreneurship, science, tribal communities,

部落社區等領域，

and together we cofounded an organization called Megafire Action,

我們共同創立了一個組織， 叫做「超級大火行動」，

whose sole purpose is to solve the megafire crisis.

目標就是要解決超級大火危機。

And I've come to believe that if we take a holistic approach,

我漸漸相信，如果我們能 採取一種全面性的方法，

we have an opportunity to establish a new relationship with fire,

我們就有機會可以

和大火建立新的關係， 安全地處理大火，

to work safely with fire

and potentially to solve this wicked problem.

且有可能可以解決這個棘手的問題。

The path forward has three solutions.

邁向未來，有三個解決方案。

The first is fire-adapted communities,

第一個是適應火災的社區；

the second is resilient landscapes

第二個是有韌性的地景；

and the third is innovative fire management.

第三個是創新火災管理。

So for the first, fire-adapted communities,

所以，先談第一個， 適應火災的社區，

what we need to do is to clear the brush and the vegetation from homes,

我們要做的是清除灌木和植被，

家中不要有，

from the immediate proximity of homes.

家附近不要有。

Next, we need to use fire-resistant materials

接著，我們得要使用

防火材料，

in the homes and the roofs.

家中和屋頂都要用。

And then the third thing is to, where possible,

第三，在有可能的範圍內，

protect against embers, flying embers,

針對飛灰餘燼做好保護措施，

by protecting the home from openings like your air vents and your chimneys.

做法是保護好家中的

對外開口，比如通風口和煙囪。

Now communities have a strong shared interest

社區有很強大的共同利益，

to perform this work along the exterior boundary of the community

因此可以沿著社區的外邊界 進行這項工作，因為，

because it reduces the chance

這樣做能減少大火 深入到城市中的機會，

that fire will penetrate deeply into the city,

as it did in Santa Rosa.

以免步上聖羅莎的後塵。

The second solution is resilient landscapes.

第二個解決方案是

有韌性的地景，如果你只能從 這場演說學到一課，就是它。

And if you take one lesson from this talk, it's this.

In order to solve the megafire crisis,

為了解決超級大火危機，我們必須要

we need to bring our western landscapes back into a healthy balance

將我們西方的地景 帶回到健康的平衡點上，

by reducing the overgrown brush and trees in the wildlands and the forest.

做法是減少在荒野和森林中過度

生長的灌木和樹木。

Here we're finally starting to take to heart the wisdom

在這方面，我們終於開始將

美洲原住民的智慧銘記在心，

of the Indigenous peoples of the Americas

who knew that fire was a natural part of the landscape

原住民知道火是地景中 很自然的一部分，

and who introduced low-intensity fire, good fire, on a regular basis,

他們會製造低強度的 火災，好的火災，

定期在適當的時機這麼做。

at the right times.

When this is done well,

如果做得好，

as around the communities of South Lake Tahoe,

就像南太浩湖社區附近所做的那樣，

then it can actually divert a megafire

就可以引導超級大火轉向，

as bad as the one that they experienced in 2021.

包括他們在 2021 年 經歷的嚴重超級大火。

It can also potentially prevent a megafire from occurring,

這麼做也可能可以 預防超級大火發生，

which is what some people think happened in Napa of last year.

有些人認為去年的納帕 就是這麼一回事。

But the scale of this challenge is huge.

但這個難題的規模很巨大，

There are hundreds of millions of acres of wildland in the American forests.

美國森林就包含數億英畝的荒野。

The Forest Service hopes to reduce the risk

國家森林局希望在接下來 十年間能夠針對最高優先的

on 50 million high-priority acres over the next ten years.

五千萬英畝來減少風險。

But the challenge is that they're only accomplishing a few million acres a year.

但難題在於他們一年 只能完成幾百萬英畝。

And so we're not at the pace or scale

處理這個難題所需要的步調 和規模，我們都還達不到。

that we need to do to address this challenge.

So what do we need to do?

那我們需要做什麼？

Well, the first thing that we need to do

我們需要做的第一件事

是實際上去僱用、訓練，

is to essentially hire, train and retain many more workers

和留住更多工作者， 他們要做的艱鉅工作是

who will be doing the hard work of defusing the time bombs

解除我們西部森林中的定時炸彈。

inside our western forests.

We need to pay them well.

我們得給他們好的薪資待遇， 提供全職工作來支持他們，

We need to support them with full-time work

and we need to protect them from liability where necessary.

在必要的時候，也要 保護他們讓他們免責。

The next thing we need to do is to empower them with innovation.

接著，我們要用創新 來賦予他們更強大的能力。

And right now there are an incredible number of great companies

目前，

有相當多很出色的公司和組織

and organizations that are working to bring this innovation to reality.

在努力讓這些創新成真。

Just one of these companies is called BurnBot,

其中一家公司叫 BurnBot，他們想做的

and what they're hoping to do

is to make controlled burns safer and faster.

是讓人為控制的燃燒 能更安全、更快速。

They're going to establish a burned perimeter around an area

他們打算用遠端遙控的 路虎（全地形車）

with the remotely piloted rover

來建立一個區域燃燒邊界

and then they can bring a drone into the middle of it,

接著他們可以用無人機 在該區域投下火種，

drop some fire into it and burn that interior area safely.

把邊界內的區域安全地燃燒掉。

It's a brilliant but a simple idea.

這是個很高明但很簡單的點子。

And I think we're going to need a lot more of this kind of innovation

我認為我們會需要 更多更多這類創新，

if we're going to scale up to the to the size of the problem

才能夠把規模擴大到能夠 處理我們面臨的巨大問題。

that we have before us.

Now the first two solutions that I've talked to you about

我剛才跟各位分享的前兩個 解決方案都能被大家認可。

are pretty well agreed.

The third one, innovative fire management, is somewhat more controversial,

第三個解決方案，創新火災管理，

就比較有爭議性，

but I think it offers huge potential to address and solve the wildfire problem.

但我認為它有很大的潛力，

能處理和解決野火問題。

What we need is innovation and technology that can rapidly detect and assess fire

我們需要的是能夠快速偵測 和評估火災的創新和技術，

and then quickly put it out when it gets bad.

並能在情況變糟時盡快將它撲滅。

And here, speed is paramount,

在這裡，最重要的是速度，因為

because when you're in the worst kind of fire days --

當火災發生在條件 最糟糕的日子——最炎熱、

these are the hottest, driest and windiest fire days --

最乾燥，風最大的日子——

if you can't bring fire management resources to a fire very quickly,

如果你無法非常迅速把 火災管理資源帶到火災地點，

then it is likely that you won't be able to contain that fire.

你很可能就無法控制火勢。

Here we need to look at the example

我們來看看南加州快速 應變部隊（QRF）的例子，

of the Quick Reaction Force of Southern California,

which is really designed in some ways for these toughest days.

在某些層面上，該部隊就是為 這些最棘手的日子所設計。

The QRF is a public-private partnership,

QRF 是由公私合夥關係，

which now has three Chinook helicopters.

現在有三架契努克直升機，

These are the big ones with the two rotors on the top.

契努克是大型雙旋翼直升機。

And each of them can drop up to 3000 gallons of water on a fire,

每一架都可以在火災現場 空投高達三千加侖的水，

day or night,

不分晝夜，且能做到非常精確，

and they can do it very precisely.

They can also refill up to six times an hour

它們一小時也能補水高達六次，

so they can bring a lot of mass to the problem.

因此能帶很大量的水到問題所在。

Over the course of two years of demonstrations,

在為期兩年的示範中，

the QRF has demonstrated that this model has great potential,

QRF 展示出這個模型 有很大的潛力，

that, in fact, if you can bring a lot of fire management resource

事實上，如果你能很快速將

大量火災管理資源帶到火災現場，

to a fire very quickly,

you can get on top of fires before they get big and unmanageable.

你可以在火災變大到 難以控制之前掌控住它。

And this opens up an exciting potential future.

這帶來了新的未來 可能性，讓人十分興奮。

Imagine this model with a series of larger drone vehicles

想像這個模型搭配

一系列更大型的無人機 載具，安排配置到

distributed across the landscape in higher-fire-risk areas.

高火災風險區域的地景各處。

Imagine these vehicles positioned periodically

想像定期沿著

公用事業管線設置這些載具，

along utility lines

or in areas of higher fire-risk deep in the forest.

或者設置在森林深處 火災風險較高的區域。

Such a distributed network, if connected to the right sensor system,

如果把這樣的配置網絡 和正確的感測器系統連結，

could offer a future

我們在未來就有可能做到

in which we are able to really put out fires

即使火災發生在條件 最糟糕的日子，也能把它撲滅，

on the worst fire days, and even in remote communities.

甚至包括快樂在偏遠社區的火災。

Companies like Rain and Joby Aviation are working on this vision today.

Rain 和 Joby Aviation 等公司

現在都在努力實現這個遠景。

The sensor system will also be very important

要解決這個問題， 感測器系統也非常重要。

for the resolution of this problem.

The system -- which will entail

這個系統——它將會包含地面

both ground-based, aerial and space-based platforms --

以及空中與太空平台——

won't be important just because we're going to be able to see

重要性不僅在於

我們將能夠知道和偵測到火災

and detect fire where and when it pops up,

會何時在何地冒出來，

but also because it'll enable us

也在於它能讓我們可以

to differentiate between good and bad fire,

區別出好的火災和不好的火災、

low-intensity fire and high-intensity fire,

低強度火災和高強度火災，

which is very important because we need more lower-intensity fire on the landscape

這點相當重要，因為我們需要 讓地景上有更多低強度火災，

to rejuvenate our forests,

讓森林恢復生機，

just as much as we need to know

我們也同樣非常需要知道 何地的火災在何時有變成

where and when fire risk is becoming higher intensity.

高強度的風險。

Fire is a prism through which we can see the future

火災是個棱鏡，

透過它，我們能看到未來 人類和大自然系統的關係，

of humanity's relationship with natural systems.

Working together and supported by technology,

同心協力，再加上科技的支援，

we can build a world in which communities are resilient to wildfire

我們可以改變世界，讓社區 擁有對抗野火的韌性，

and in which forests are brought back into a healthy balance.

把森林帶回到健康的平衡點上。

Ultimately, we can build a future,

最終，我們能讓未來變成

in which we don't just manage fire to protect human life and property,

管理火災的目的不只是 要保護人類的生命和財產，

but also to protect the biosphere for global carbon emissions

也是要保護生物圈，

為了全球碳排放， 也為了生物多樣性。

and for biodiversity.

Ultimately, we need to become the crew of Spaceship Earth.

最終，我們必須要扮演 「地球太空船」的機組員，

So let's get to work.

咱們上工吧。

Let's learn from fire

讓我們向火災中學習，

and let's build a resilient, sustainable future.

並建立一個有韌性的永續未來。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）