Solar Energy Is Even Cheaper Than You Think | Jenny Chase | TED

翻译人员: Anney Ye 校对人员: Bruce Wang

You've probably all heard that solar modules are cheap,

你们可能都听 说过太阳能组件很便宜，

but I'm not sure you appreciate just how cheap.

但我不确定 你是否理解它的便宜。

You can buy a solar module

你可以花等同于在布鲁塞尔

for the price of about eight cups of the posh coffee

买八杯豪华咖啡的钱

you get here in Brussels.

购买一个太阳能模组。

You can make solar panels into a fence,

你可以把太阳能电池板做成围栏，

and it's not significantly more expensive than ordinary fencing material.

而且它并不比 普通的围栏材料贵多少。

But this isn't just great news for rich Europeans who drink posh coffee.

但是，这不仅是对于喝豪华咖啡的 富裕欧洲人来说的好消息。

Solar power is starting to displace fossil fuels

在最需要廉价清洁电力的国家，

in the countries that most need cheap and clean electricity.

太阳能已开始取代化石燃料。

Now, I have been an analyst of this sector for nearly 20 years

现在，我担任该行业 的分析师已有近20年了，

and the growth is really impressive.

而增长确实令人印象深刻。

This chart shows new solar built every year,

该图表显示了每年 新建的太阳能电池模组，

and last year,

去年，全球安装了

444 gigawatts of solar modules got installed worldwide.

444 千兆瓦的太阳能组件。

More than half of that was in China, actually.

实际上，其中一半以上 发生在中国。

Four hundred and forty-four gigawatts is quite a lot.

四百四十四千兆瓦相当多。

It's more than the power capacity of Japan.

它超过了日本的电力容量。

And even more is being installed this year.

今年还有更多正被安装。

It's probably just under 600 gigawatts.

可能略低于 600 千兆瓦。

But I have to take you off on a diversion now

但我现在必须转移一下你的注意力，

to complain about how hard my job is.

抱怨我的工作有多艰苦。

Back in 2007,

早在 2007 年，

there were about 12 countries installing solar,

大约有 12 个国家安装了太阳能，

and the official data coming out of them was good.

它们公布的官方数据很好。

Now my team is trying to cover 146 solar markets,

现在，我的团队正试图覆盖 146 个太阳能市场，

and some of the data is really bad.

而其中一些数据质量堪忧。

Even Germany and Spain are installing more solar than is in their official data.

比如，德国和西班牙的太阳能装机量 就超过了其官方数据所报道的。

So what hope is there for good data

那么，非洲或东南亚国家的

about countries in Africa or Southeast Asia?

数据情况怎么样呢？

Take, for example, Pakistan.

以巴基斯坦为例。

Now this chart shows the exports of solar modules

这张图表显示了中国对巴基斯坦的

from China to Pakistan

太阳能组件出口情况，

according to China Customs.

数据来源中国海关。

It reports in dollars,

报告以美元为单位，

but we convert to gigawatts using average prices.

但我们根据平均价格 将其转换为千兆瓦。

So the official data on how much solar is installed in Pakistan

关于巴基斯坦安装了多少 太阳能的官方数据是，

is that there's less than three gigawatts in the country.

该国的太阳能发电量不到 三千兆瓦。

But more solar modules left China for Pakistan in 2022 alone.

但是，仅在2022年， 就有超过这一数字的太阳能组件

离开中国前往巴基斯坦。

Now, we did think that substantial amounts of those

现在，我们确实认为其中

were being re-exported to Afghanistan

有很大一部分被再出口到阿富汗，

to run irrigation pumps, to grow poppies, to make heroin.

用于向灌溉泵提供电力， 种植罂粟花、制造药品。

And there's also a money laundering scheme which distorts the data.

还有一个会扭曲数据的洗钱计划。

But these don't seem to be that big.

但是这些似乎没有那么大的影响。

And in 2024, things got ridiculous.

而在2024年，事情变得荒谬了。

Sixteen gigawatts of solar modules have left China for Pakistan

仅在今年前八个月， 16 千兆瓦的太阳能组件

in the first eight months of this year.

已离开中国前往巴基斯坦。

What is going on here?

到底发生了什么？

I worked with a machine-learning

我与一家名为 Atlas Maps 的机器学习

and satellite data firm called Atlas Maps

和卫星数据公司合作，

to detect the solar modules in Pakistan.

探测了巴基斯坦的太阳能组件。

Now, the great thing about detecting solar modules using satellite data

现在，使用卫星数据探测 太阳能组件的好处是

is you can't really hide solar modules.

你无法真正隐藏太阳能组件。

The bad thing is that they are distributed,

不好的是，它们是分布式的，

they're quite small installations,

它们是很小的装置，

and sometimes they look a lot like greenhouses or skylights.

有时它们看起来很 像温室或天窗。

But Atlas Maps found 443 installations in Pakistan,

但是 Atlas Maps 在巴基斯坦 发现了443 个装置，其中

many of which we had no idea existed,

许多是我们不知道的存在，

and looking a lot like the ones on the right of this map,

而且看起来很像这张地图右边的 那些装置，

that's some rooftop solar.

那是一些屋顶太阳能。

It also missed some,

它还有所遗漏，

like, you can see some on the left of this map

比如，你可以在这张地图的左边

that the machine-learning algorithm just did not detect.

看到一些机器学习 算法没有检测到的东西。

But you can see them.

但是你可以肉眼看到它们。

You would see them better if the picture was better,

如果画质更好， 你会看得更清楚，

but they're there.

但它们确实存在。

What the satellite data did confirm

卫星数据证实，

is that solar modules in Pakistan

巴基斯坦的太阳能组件安装

are installed near the industrial clusters of Lahore, Karachi and Islamabad.

大多位于拉合尔、卡拉奇和 伊斯兰堡的工业集群附近。

And actually, if you go on Google Earth

实际上，如果你去谷歌地球，

and just look at a random spot somewhere in Pakistan, in these cities,

随机看看巴基斯坦 某个地方，在这些城市里，

you can see that loads of the roofs have solar panels on them.

你可以看到很多屋顶上 有太阳能电池板。

It's really incredible.

这真的非常棒。

So the solar boom in Pakistan is really happening.

因此，巴基斯坦的太阳能繁荣 确实正在发生。

It's not just an artifact of China customs data.

中国海关的数据没有出错。

So why?

那么为什么呢？

So unfortunately, Pakistan is vulnerable to extreme temperatures.

不幸的是，巴基斯坦 容易受到极端气温的影响。

In 2024, 500 people have died in Pakistan in heat waves

2024 年，巴基斯坦有 500 人 死于热浪，

and temperatures reached 52 degrees Celsius

气温达到了 52 摄氏度。

So this is a country where people really need fans

因此，这是一个 人们真正需要风扇

and air conditioning to survive.

和空调才能生存的国家。

But power is expensive in Pakistan, increasingly expensive,

但是巴基斯坦的电力价格昂贵，

and the total power capacity per person in Pakistan is 1/18

越来越昂贵，巴基斯坦的 人均总电力容量

as much as it is in the United States.

是美国的 1/18 。

This is a country that really needs power.

这是一个真正需要电力的国家。

Now, the good thing about solar panels is that they generate in the daytime.

现在，太阳能电池板的好 处是它们在白天发电。

So if you want to run air conditioning and fans,

因此，如果你想运行 空调和风扇，

they're generating at the right time to do that.

它们是在正确的时机发电。

And we're pretty sure that this is what businesses

而我们敢肯定， 这就是巴基斯坦的企业

and homes in Pakistan are doing.

和家庭正在做的事情。

They're installing solar panels to reduce how much they have to pay the grid

他们正在安装太阳能电池板， 以减少向电网支付的费用，

and to run their cooling systems,

以此运行冷却系统

as well as the other stuff that they do.

以及向他们所做的其他事情供电。

But this is a problem for the largely coal-fired grid in Pakistan

但是，对于巴基斯坦以 煤炭为主的电网来说，

这是一个问题，

because it's losing its best customers,

因为它正在失去最好的客户，

which means it has to put up the prices for its remaining customers

这意味着它必须向其余客户

to fund the continuing operation of its coal plants.

提高价格， 为燃煤电厂的 持续运营提供资金。

Which means that those remaining customers have higher prices

这意味着剩下的客户 会收到更高的报价，

and even more reason to go solar.

从而更有理由转为使用太阳能。

And the power demand in Pakistan fell nine percent in 2023

根据电网的统计， 巴基斯坦的电力需求

as tracked by the grid.

在 2023 年下降了 9％。

And this is probably partly because power is expensive,

部分原因可能是因为电力昂贵，

but also because of all these solar panels

但也因为所有这些太阳能电池板

that are not being seen by the grid.

都无法被电网看见。

So ...

所以……

As analysts -- obviously, this is complicated,

作为分析师——显然， 这很复杂，

but we feel generally glad

但我们普遍为巴基斯坦人能够

that Pakistanis are getting their power from cheap and clean sources.

从廉价清洁来源获得电力 感到高兴。

It seems in general a good thing.

总的来说，这似乎是一件好事。

But you can't always expect solar build to just go steadily up.

但是，你不能总是指望太阳能 安装率会稳步上升。

Solar markets are more like a roller coaster.

太阳能市场更像是过山车。

Actually, we call it the solar coaster.

实际上，我们真的 把它叫做太阳能过山车。

Take, for example, South Africa.

以南非为例。

This is data on rooftop solar new build by month

这是国有公用事业公司 Eskom

from state utility Eskom,

按月发布的新建屋顶太阳能的数据，

which has a really interesting way of tracking this data.

该公司有一种非常有趣的 方法来跟踪这些数据。

It estimates rooftop solar build by the power demand

它根据特定时间在电网 上看不到的电力需求

it doesn't see on the grid at particular times.

来估算屋顶太阳能建造。

There was a boom in solar installations in South Africa

之前南非的太阳能安装率 有过一次大爆发，

because it was a really bad blackout season,

那是一个很糟的停电季，

and people literally built solar, so they had power.

人们为了获取电力必须建造太阳能。

And as analysts, we got really excited about this.

作为分析师，我们对此感到 非常兴奋。

A gigawatt of rooftop solar was built in two months.

他们在两个月内建造了 千兆瓦的屋顶太阳能。

A gigawatt is the size of a medium-sized coal-fired power plant.

千兆瓦相当于 中型燃煤发电厂的大小。

OK, it only runs in the daytime, but it works.

好吧，它只能在白天运行， 但是可以运行。

So we got really excited.

所以我们真的很兴奋。

We thought that South Africans would copy their neighbors,

我们本以为南非人 会模仿他们的邻国，

and the South African solar market would keep going up and up and up.

而南非的太阳能市场 将继续保持上涨趋势。

We were wrong about that.

我们错了。

The solar market has fallen back actually in South Africa in 2024,

实际上，南非的太阳能市场 在2024年已经回落，

and this is because there were fewer blackouts.

这是因为停电次数减少了。

And this is partly because Eskom fixed its coal-fired power plants.

而那是因为 Eskom 修复了 其燃煤发电厂。

Yay!

好吧，好极了。

But also because the solar is helping to support the grid.

但同时，这也是因为太阳能的使用 有助于支持电网。

So it's not always simple,

因此，一切并不总是那么简单，

but cheaper solar power is helping poorer countries

但是更便宜的太阳能 可以帮助较贫穷的国家

to meet their power demand without increasing fossil fuel use.

在不增加化石燃料使用量的情况下 满足其电力需求。

And this is what makes my job interesting.

这就是使我的工作变得有趣的原因。

But what we need is to stop burning fossil fuels.

但是我们需要的 是完全停止燃烧化石燃料。

And it's most obvious that solar is helping there in markets

最明显的是，太阳能在电力需求 未得到满足的市场中

with less unmet need for power.

发挥了作用。

Take California, for example.

以加利福尼亚为例。

This is an average day of power supply on each year from 2012 to 2023.

这是从2012年到2023年每年的 平均供电天数。

In 2012, California got 43 percent of its power

2012 年，加利福尼亚州 43％ 的电力

from gas burned in state,

来自该州燃烧的天然气，

and it imported 29 percent.

同时 29％ 源于进口。

By 2015,

到 2015 年，

you can see the little yellow bit in this chart,

你可以看到这张图表中的 黄色部分，

that's large-scale solar eating into power imports

那是大规模的太阳能

in the middle of the day.

在中午被使用， 从而减少电力进口需求。

And by 2023,

到 2023 年，

on an average day,

平均每天都有大量的太阳能，

there is so much solar

以至于这个州

that the state is exporting power around noon.

在中午的时候开始出口电力。

So this is having an impact.

因此，太阳能真切地在产生影响。

What's next?

下一步是什么？

Well, do you see the little pink bit in 2022 and 2023.

好吧，你看到 2022 年 和 2023 年的粉色小部分了吗。

That's batteries.

那是电池。

Batteries are doing exactly what they're meant to do.

电池正在发挥其应有的作用。

They're charging on solar in the daytime,

它们白天使用太阳能充电，

and they're discharging in the evening

晚上放电，

so that the gas-fired power plants don't have to be ramped up.

这样燃气发电厂就 不必加大电流了。

And thanks to all these trends,

由于所有这些趋势， 自 2012 年以来，

California carbon emissions per unit of electricity generation

加州单位发电量的碳排放量

have fallen over 30 percent since 2012.

下降了 30％ 以上。

So solar power is pushing out fossil fuels

因此，无论是富国还是穷国，

in both richer and poorer countries.

太阳能都在减少化石燃料的使用。

And the next step is probably batteries working with solar

下一步可能是 电池与太阳能配合使用，

and working with wind and other renewables to continue to push out fossil fuels.

并与风能和其他可再生能源合作， 继续减少化石燃料使用。

This is actually working.

这真的在产生作用。

And that is why I have hope that we can beat climate change.

这就是为什么我对我们能够 战胜气候变化充满希望。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）