How to feed 10 billion people — without destroying nature | Andy Jarvis | TED

翻译人员: Alvin Lee 校对人员: Bruce Wang

My son thinks I have the coolest job title in the world.

我儿子觉得我的职位是世上最酷的。

I'm the director of the future of food.

我是未来食品总监。

For him, that's some kind of idea --

对他而言，这就像

he thinks this is a Willy Wonka-style role of creating chocolate fountains,

一个威利旺卡那样的角色， 制作巧克力喷泉，

unlimited gobstoppers.

和数不清的太妃糖。

But it’s a little bit more down to Earth, really.

但实际上它接地气得多。

It's about thinking

主要是思考

about how do we produce food without destroying nature?

如何在不破坏自然 的前提下生产食物。

How do we deliver to 10 billion people

如何为 100 亿人口

提供可承担、有营养 且可持续的食品。

affordable, nutritious and sustainable food?

The one catch to all of this is I can't tell anyone what they should eat.

但唯一的限制是， 我不能告诉人们应该吃什么。

It just doesn't work, right?

这没什么用，对吧？

I tell my son all the time what he shouldn’t eat,

我成天跟我儿子说，什么不该吃，

and that doesn't work.

他从来不听。

My mom spent, you know, my early days constantly telling me what I should eat.

我妈在我小时候， 一直劝我吃什么呢？

Brussels sprouts.

甘蓝。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

This is me just last week.

这是上周的我。

It didn't work despite all the time she told me.

她说了那么多年，也是白费功夫。

So anyway, I digress, that's the one catch.

有点跑题了， 总之这是唯一的一个限制。

But when I do think about the future of food

但当我思考关于食物的未来，

and how to produce food without destroying nature,

思考如何才能在 不破坏自然的前提下生产食物，

one particular molecule always floats to the top as a priority.

总有一个特定的分子 会优先浮现在我脑海中。

And that's protein.

那就是蛋白质。

It's essential to human life.

它对人类生命而言是必需的。

Did you know we have 100,000 different types of protein in our own bodies, right?

你们知道吗，我们体内 有 10 万种不同的蛋白质。

当我说蛋白质时， 其实是在说一个更广泛的概念。

When I say protein as well, it's kind of writ large.

All of the good stuff we get from animal-sourced foods,

我们从动物性食品中 获得的所有有益物质，

from meat and from milk,

从肉类和奶制品中，

macronutrients and micronutrients.

大量营养素和微量营养素。

But our insatiable appetite for protein is destroying nature.

但我们对蛋白质 无休止的欲望正在破坏自然。

Did you know that one third of global emissions come from food?

你们知道吗，全世界三分之一 的排放来源于食品。

其中有一半来源于畜牧业。

And half of that is coming from animal agriculture.

Did you know that we have 40 percent of the land surface

你们知道吗， 我们使用了土地面积的 40%，

dedicated to production of agriculture?

来进行农业生产。

And over two thirds of that is for animal agriculture.

而其中超过三分之二用在了畜牧业。

And it doesn't stop there.

这还不止。

We project to 2050 an increase in demand

我们预测到 2050 年，

对于动物性食物和蛋白质的需求 会增长 50%甚至更多。

for animal-sourced foods and protein of 50 percent or more.

There's simply no way that we can deliver that

除非把地球榨干取尽，

without tearing up planet Earth.

否则我们根本无法满足这样的需求。

Unless we change the way we think about it.

除非我们换种思路。

And so one thing that I think

因此我觉得，在其中

can play an important role in that is alternative proteins.

能发挥重要作用的就是替代蛋白质。

So when we talk about alternative proteins,

当我们聊到替代蛋白质时，

we can think about plant-based products.

我们会想到植物基产品。

Plant-based could be burger made from soybeans.

植物基产品可以是用黄豆做的汉堡。

It could be bacon rashers made from peas.

也可以是用豌豆做的培根。

And there are already products like this on the market.

现在市面上已经有这样的产品了。

And they come in at an extraordinarily lower footprint

它们产生的排放和使用的土地

in terms of emissions and in terms of land.

会低得很多。

We can also think about fermentation.

发酵也是值得考虑的。

So fermentation,

发酵，

it's an age-old practice that we've had for millennia.

是一种已经使用了千年的古老技术。

今天，有了现代发酵产品，

Today, modern-day fermented products,

we can be using microalgae and microbes and fungi

我们可以用微藻、微生物和真菌，

and creating new types of protein.

来制造新型蛋白质。

Hell, we can even create protein from air.

你们相信吗，我们甚至能 从空气中制造蛋白质。

And then the other type is cultivated meat.

另一种类型是培养肉。

Cultivated meat is where we use cells from animals, reproduce them,

培养肉是指我们使用动物细胞， 让它们繁殖，

we recreate tissues,

重新创造组织，

and we have meat-like products

我们就得到了类肉制品，

that are coming from just these cells, right?

它们仅仅是由细胞产生的，对吧？

I had the fortune to try beef steak recently.

最近我有幸尝了尝培养牛排。

It had the taste, it had the texture, it smelt.

它有肉的味道、质地和香味。

It was meat, right?

它就是肉，对吧？

This is me trying it.

这是我在尝它。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

As you can see, there's a trend in this.

如你们所见，这很潮。

I’m going to be the only TED Talk to show only slides of me eating things.

我将是唯一一个 只展示我吃东西照片的 TED 演讲者。

And as you can see,

如你们所见，

it's very hard to get a good photo while you're tasting.

想在吃东西的时候 拍一张好照片非常难。

Fortunately, this will be the last one.

好在这是最后一张了。

But the mind-blowing thing,

但令人震惊的是，

while you're tasting that,

当你在品尝它的时候，

is thinking that the cow, where those cells came from,

想到那头提供细胞的牛，

was grazing up on the mountainside,

正在山坡上吃草，

就在离我不远的地方。

just close to where I was.

And that cow, those cells could produce thousands,

而那头牛，那些细胞， 可以生产出成千上万，

甚至上百万这样的牛排。

if not millions of those kinds of steaks.

It's mind-blowing.

太令人震惊了。

So it sounds too good to be true, right?

美好得不真实，对吗？

It's not perfect, it has its issues.

它并不完美，它有自己的问题。

So many of the plant-based proteins that we're producing right now

我们如今生产的植物基蛋白质

are being processed too much.

被加工太多。

They're over-processed.

它们被过度加工了。

Also on cultivated meat, the costs are very high.

培养肉也是一样，成本非常高。

We have 40 dollars per pound or more

通过培养肉生产这样的蛋白质，

is the cost of producing these kinds of proteins from cultivated meat.

每磅成本需要 40 美元甚至更高。

And then scaling this to have any kind of planetary impact,

如果将规模扩大到对全球产生影响，

to actually producing cultivated meat on planetary scales,

要将培养肉的生产扩大到全球范围，

it's an enormous challenge.

这是个巨大的挑战。

The sector is also suffering.

这个行业现在也面临困境。

We had an absolute influx of of funds,

在疫情期间，

of investment during the pandemic.

我们曾获得大量资金投入。

And the sector right now is suffering.

而现在行业举步维艰。

That was impatient capital,

资本是没有耐心的，

venture capital seeing, pouncing on a great idea.

风险投资看到好的点子， 就会立刻扑上去。

But right now it's looking for products on shelves

但现在它寻找的是已经上架的产品，

and profits to pay back those investments.

能产生盈利来收回投资。

The sector is suffering.

行业很困难。

So ...

那么，

Is it really part of this future of food?

这真的是未来食品的一部分吗？

Well, put simply, I think it has to be.

简单来说，我觉得它必须是。

We have to make this work.

我们必须确保它是。

And many of these problems are surmountable.

许多问题都是可以解决的。

Innovation is absolutely key.

创新绝对是关键。

We can bring down the prices of cultivated meat through innovation.

我们可以通过创新 降低培养肉的价格。

We can find new ways of combining plant proteins

我们可以找到新的方法 来组合植物蛋白，

and recreating, mimicking the flavor of meat,

再现和模拟

肉类和牛奶的味道和质地。

the flavor of milk, the textures.

If we get those ingredients right and those combinations right.

只要我们找到正确的原料和配方。

AI is helping tremendously.

AI 能帮很大的忙。

I've tasted a cheese that is cheese.

我尝过“以假乱真”的奶酪。

I love cheese, and this cheese is cheese.

我爱奶酪，而它吃起来 就真的是奶酪。

And it's using AI to get those combinations right.

AI 帮我们得到了正确的配方。

So these problems are surmountable.

所以这些问题是可以解决的。

So remember the catch.

回想一下刚刚说的那个阻碍。

I can't tell anyone what to eat.

我无法告诉每个人应该吃什么。

But what can I do?

那我能做的是什么呢？

Well, I can tell governments that they need to step up on this.

我能告诉政府，他们需要介入了。

We need governments to step up and support.

我们需要政府介入提供支持。

Did you know that hundreds of billions of dollars are spent every year

你们知道吗，每年有数千亿美元的补贴

for subsidies for support to animal agriculture?

用于支持畜牧业发展？

And I can tell you -- and that’s on the rise.

而且这个数字还在上升。

But I can tell you, if you had the same amount of support

如果将同样数量的支持

going to the alternative-protein sector,

投入到替代蛋白质领域，

these products would already be an awful lot more affordable

这些产品应该已经 出现在超市货架上了，

and much tastier on supermarket shelves.

好吃又便宜。

So governments need to step up.

因此政府需要介入了。

They need to level the playing field for this, right?

他们需要平衡各方，对吧？

And many governments are interested.

很多政府是有兴趣的。

They see opportunity here.

他们看到了这里的机会。

It's resilience.

这是为了增强系统韧性。

It's building,

这正在建设中，

it's addressing food prices, it's addressing food security.

这关系到食品价格， 关系到粮食安全。

But they're scared to talk about this.

但他们害怕谈论这些。

This has become a polarized issue.

这已经成为了一个极化的议题。

It needs to not be.

但它本不该如此。

And governments looking at this can look for Singapore for inspiration.

各国政府在考虑这个问题时 可以从新加坡找找灵感。

Singapore has been a powerhouse in alternative proteins.

新加坡在替代蛋白质领域 已经成为一股强大的力量。

What did they do?

他们做了什么呢？

They were the first to regulate for cultivated meat.

他们是第一个对培养肉立法的。

They regulated,

他们制定法规，

made it available for consumers.

让消费者可以购买到培养肉。

They invested in innovation.

他们投资创新。

They invested in science.

投资科技。

They incubated companies and start-ups.

他们孵化公司和初创企业。

They created an ecosystem of actors

他们打造了一套世界级的

working on alternative proteins that is world-class.

替代蛋白质产业生态系统。

And it's the only country in the world where you can go to a supermarket

它是世界上唯一一个可以在超市

and buy a cultivated-meat product today.

买到培养肉的国家。

It is there on supermarket shelves.

它们就在超市货架上摆着。

Singapore has shown the way of how this can be done.

新加坡展示了这件事该怎么办成。

And the other thing that I can do is invest.

另一件我能做的事就是投资。

I can put our money where our mouth is.

我们要用实际行动 来证明我们的承诺。

So at the Bezos Earth Fund,

所以在贝索斯地球基金会，

we've just committed 100 million dollars

我们刚刚承诺投入 1 亿美元

to support centers for sustainable protein.

来支持可持续蛋白质研究中心。

It is tackling some of these insurmountable problems,

它们瞄准的是一些无法克服的问题，

these surmountable problems,

而这些能解决的问题，

using innovation to bring prices down,

通过创新降低价格，

to improve texture, to improve taste

改善口感和味道，

and to make these more healthy and more nutritious for people.

使之更健康更有营养。

That's what I can do.

这是我能做的。

What can we do?

那我们大家能做什么呢？

Well, we need to recognize that everyone has a role to play

我们需要意识到， 每个人在食品的未来

in this future of food.

都要发挥作用。

Everyone has a stake.

别想着事不关己，

Not that kind of steak.

没人能高高挂起。

We need to move away from "either-or"

我们需要摈弃非此即彼的思维，

and move towards "yes and."

转而采取包容并蓄的态度。

Yes, we need rotational grazing,

是的，我们需要轮牧制，

regenerative animal agriculture ranches

需要能带来诸多好处的

that are delivering all of the great things that they do.

再生畜牧农场。

And we need plant-based proteins.

同时我们也需要植物基蛋白质。

Yes, we need lab-grown, cultivated meat.

是的，我们需要 实验室产出的培养肉。

And for fish, for lamb, for beef.

鱼肉、羊肉、牛肉。

And we need new fermented products.

同时我们也需要新型的发酵类产品。

Yes, we need all of that and everything in between.

是的，我们需要这一切。

Whole grains, pulses.

粗粮，豆子。

Yes, we need that. right?

我们也需要，对吧？

So that's how I imagine the future of food.

这就是我对未来食物的想象。

It's one that accommodates for all of the palates,

一个能适应所有口味、

the religions, the cultures,

宗教、文化、

the preferences out there,

各种偏好，

and all of the budgets.

以及所有预算水平的未来。

And it's not about just producing the perfect burger.

它并不仅仅是生产完美的汉堡。

A Nigerian came up to me and he said, "Look,

一个尼日利亚人跟我说，

don't come to me with burgers in Nigeria.

“兄弟，别在尼日利亚 给我们推销汉堡。

We're not a burger nation.

我们不喜欢吃汉堡。

We like chewy beef."

我们喜欢有嚼劲的牛肉。”

Yes, it's chewy beef.

是的，有嚼劲的牛肉。

And it's halal-certified lamb and it's all of these things.

还有清真羊肉和其他各种东西。

So that way, and my son is very grateful for this,

这样的话，我儿子非常感恩这一切，

we're not telling anyone what to eat.

我们不会规定任何人要吃什么。

We are simply getting access

我们只是保持

to a large range of options

多种多样的选择可能性，

which are all sustainable, affordable and healthy.

它们都是可持续、不贵而且健康的。

And so it's ultimately about choice.

所以归根到底这是个选择的问题。

It's about my choice.

我的选择。

It's about your choice.

你们的选择。

It's everyone's choice.

每个人的选择。

But make no mistake,

但不要忘记，

these are probably some of the most important choices we'll make.

这可能是我们将要做出的 最重要的选择之一。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）