This Country Runs on 98 Percent Renewable Electricity | Ramón Méndez Galain | TED

翻译人员: Ellen Yu 校对人员: suya f.

I'm very grateful for being here to share with you

我很荣幸能在这里和你们分享

that I live in a country, Uruguay,

关于我所居住的国家乌拉圭，

where about 98 percent of its electricity

这里百分之98的电能

is obtained from a combination of different renewable sources.

都来自于各种不同的可再生能源。

A country whose inhabitants emit 30 times less greenhouse gases

乌拉圭的居民每消耗一度电 所释放的温室气体

than the world average for each kilowatt hour consumed.

是世界平均水平的30分之一。

A country that produces its electricity at a fixed cost,

乌拉圭发电的花费始终是固定的，

regardless of wars or other geopolitical events

哪怕外界发生了战争或者地域政治事件

since it is almost independent on energy commodities,

因为乌拉圭已经基本 实现了发电资源自给，

dependent just on its wind,

只依靠国土上的风力以及

its sun, its water, its biomass waste.

太阳能、水力、生物废料。

A country that exports renewable energy surpluses to its two giant neighbors,

它甚至还能向自己毗邻的两个大国，

Argentina and Brazil.

阿根廷和巴西，出口可再生能源。

When I tell people about Uruguay, they usually say two things.

当我告诉他人乌拉圭在 能源上的成就时，他们总是问：

"I never heard about this. How did you do it?"

“我从没听说过这种事， 你们是怎么做到的？”

And, "Can this be replicated elsewhere?"

还有，“这种情况 能在别的地方复现吗？”

So today I want to tell you what happened in Uruguay, how we did it.

所以今天我想跟你们 分享乌拉圭的能源方案，

以及我们是怎么做到的。

And yes, even if every country

当然，即使每个国家都要根据自己的国情

would have to define its own transition journey,

来制定自己的能源转型方案，

the Uruguayan solution can definitely be replicated elsewhere.

乌拉圭的方法在别 的国家也绝对可以复现。

Fifteen years ago, the Uruguayan energy sector was going to a deep crisis.

在十五年前，乌拉圭的 能源结构遭遇了重大危机。

Economy was growing in unprecedented rates

经济的增速前所未有，

and poverty was decreasing, which was so great, of course,

贫穷正在减退， 欣欣向荣的局面显而易见。

but at the same time,

但是与此同时，

energy demand was growing rapidly, which was not so great.

对能源的需求与日俱增， 这带来了一些问题。

Uruguay has no proven reserve for fossil fuels.

乌拉圭没有现成的化石能源储备，

We have already used our large rivers to install hydropower plants

我们已经建造了水利 设施来利用境内的大河，

and our two big neighbors were having their own difficulties

然而我们的两位大国邻居自顾不暇，

to supply internal demand,

难以满足国内的需求，

so it was not easy for them to help us.

自然无法为我们提供资源。

In dry years,

在干旱的年份，

when you have to import much more fossil fuels,

我们必须进口更多的化石燃料，

we were forced to import electricity from our neighbors

还不得不从邻国以高昂的价格

at extraordinary prices.

进口电力。

Cost overruns could be as high as one billion dollars.

这样的话费用超出可以高达10亿美元。

And for a small economy like Uruguay,

而对于乌拉圭这样的小经济体，

this is two percent of its GDP.

这个数字是它GDP的百分之二。

And worse still, we were beginning to have blackouts.

这还不是最糟糕的情况， 我们开始出现停电。

We were living the perfect storm.

我们处于最危险的时刻中。

But crisis is also opportunity.

但是危机也同样昭示着机遇。

For most of my life, I was a scientist, a particle physicist,

在我的大部分人生中，

我是一位科学家， 一位粒子物理学家，

doing research on subjects far removed from the everyday world.

我从事的研究与日常生活相去甚远。

But in that particular national energy context,

但在这场举国上下的能源危机中，

I saw the need to reinvent myself,

我意识到要重新发掘自己的能力，

to get involved in the search for solutions.

来参与寻找解决危机的钥匙。

I began to study the energy issue, to organize seminars,

我开始研究能源问题，组织研讨会

to discuss with different experts,

与不同领域的专家交流，

and I realized how complex the energy issue is,

然后我意识到这场能源问题 比我想象的要复杂得多，

how many dimensions it has.

它涉及许多方面，

Technological and economical dimensions, of course,

除了显而易见的科技和经济层面，

but also environmental, social, geopolitical,

还涉及环境、社会、地缘政治、

cultural and even ethical dimensions.

文化甚至民族层面。

I started to write down my thoughts and almost without realizing,

我开始记录自己的想法， 在不知不觉中，

I ended up with a comprehensive, holistic proposal

我得到了一个综合性的， 一体化的能源方案。

focused on a just transition to renewable energies

它专注于能源结构向可持续能源的转化，

with very ambitious goals.

设立的目标可以说是雄心勃勃。

And one day,

然后在一天，

when I was in my office at university,

当我坐在我在大学的办公室里的时候，

I received an unexpected call.

我收到了一通意料之外的电话。

My proposal had reached the president and he was inviting me to implement it.

我的方案已经到了总统的办公桌上， 而他邀请我来实施它。

Imagine my surprise.

我有多惊讶可想而知。

He was inviting me to be the political head

他在邀请我担任我国国家能源局

of our national energy agency,

政治上的领袖。

what in the United States would be a Secretary of Energy.

在美国这相当于能源部长。

I accepted, and we immediately began to implement that policy.

我接受了他的邀请，然后 我们立刻着手实施这一政策。

But before the result could be fully seen, there was an election.

但在我们取得可见的成果之前， 乌拉圭经历了一次大选。

Fortunately, the new president, José Mujica,

所幸何塞·穆希卡 新上任的这位总统，

was supportive of what we had started to do

支持我们正在做的事，

and he asked me to remain in office.

并且希望我能继续这项工作。

But he asked me one important point:

不过他给我提了一点很重要的要求：

to make this policy to be accepted by all political parties.

让这项政策为所有党派所接受。

Patiently, we negotiated with all parties represented in Parliament

我们以极大的耐心和在议会中 持有地位的所有党派谈判，

and we achieved our goal after they accepted some minor changes.

然后在做出了一些小调整 之后达到了这个目标。

Having a long-term policy

当这项长期政策

backed by the entire Uruguayan political system

得到了乌拉圭朝野上下一致的支持，

was crucial to make rapid progress.

就将势如破竹，一往无前。

In just five years,

仅仅五年，

we went from a traditional hydrothermal power mix

我们从一个50%化石 燃料用于火力发电的

with up to 50 percent fossil share

传统能源结构国家

to an almost completely decarbonized one

转型成为了一个发电 几乎不排放二氧化碳的国家。

that already in 2017 was 98 percent renewable.

截至2017年我们的能源中 98%都来自可再生能源。

What makes the Uruguayan case unique

乌拉圭走出了一条独一无二的道路。

is that almost half of that electricity

我们几乎一半的电力

is obtained from non-traditional renewable sources.

来自非传统的可再生能源，

Wind, solar and sustainable biomass.

如风能、太阳能、和可再生生物能。

Wind alone can produce up to 40 percent of the total electricity

单凭风力发电就能提供

consumed in the country in a year,

国内一年所消耗电能的40%。

a percentage comparable to the other world wind champion, Denmark.

这个比例和世界上另外一个 风电大国丹麦相比也是毫不逊色的。

But also 15 or even 20 percent of our electricity

然而我们还有15%乃至20%的电能

is obtained with sustainable biomass.

是来自可再生的生物废料。

Uruguay is an agro-industrial country with abundant organic waste

乌拉圭是一个工农业国家， 会产生大量的有机废料，

that has a lot of energy content like rice husks, bagasse,

这些废料，例如水稻秸秆、 麦渣和造纸厂的废水，

black liquors from pulp mills.

就蕴藏着大量能量。

They have now ceased to be an environmental liability

它们现在摇身一变， 承担了保护环境的责任，

to become an energy asset.

成为了一份能源。

Of course, none of this was easy.

当然，要做到以上任何 一件事都不是轻而易举的。

We have to innovate.

我们必须推陈出新。

We have to understand that such a power system

我们需要明白， 这样的一个能源系统

requires the planning

需要与以前截然不同的

and operation quite different than the traditional one.

规划和操作模式。

Our academics worked for years to design a groundbreaking software

我们的学者年复一年的工作， 就为了设计出一套突破性的程序

to handle energy dispatch,

来承担能源的分配工作，

specifically designed to manage intermittent sources

它被专门设计用于管控不连续的能源

such as wind and solar, but also how to use water.

比如风能和太阳能， 也包括如何利用水力。

This model is based on the probability

这一模型的开发基于

of occurrence of different weather scenarios

由一个世纪以来的历史天气

based on both a century of historical data

和天气预报的数据得出的

and weather forecast.

不同的天气情况出现的概率。

This allows us, for example,

这就可以让我们做到例如

to have a prediction of the amount of wind electricity and solar electricity

提前一周预测电力系统中

that we're going to have in the grid with a week in advance.

能够获得的风电和太阳电这样的事情。

And this also allows us to know

这个系统还能够让我们了解

how and when we have to use water from the dams.

我们要在什么时候以及怎样 使用大坝中蓄积的水。

Thanks to this disruptive methodology,

多亏了这项突破性的方法论，

today in Uruguay, intermittent sources are king.

在今天的乌拉圭， 间歇性的能源才是主人。

The total installed capacity of wind plus solar

我们安装的风电和太阳能发电总容量

is of the order of the total country's peak demand.

能够满足全国用电峰时的需求。

This means that when we have enough wind and solar,

这代表着当风能和太阳能足够，

almost 100 percent of electricity is just from these two sources alone,

我们几乎100%的电力 都来源于这两个渠道，

in addition to biomass-fired power plant.

再加上由生物能驱动的发电厂的电力。

And this may happen many times during the course of a week.

在一周中可能会出现 好几次这样的情况。

And in those moments, we don't use water from the dams.

这种情况下， 我们就不用大坝中蓄的水了。

Hydropower plant only comes into play when the sun goes down

水利发电厂只会在太阳下山或者

or when the wind falls.

风力减缓的时候投入使用。

Our insurance policy, when all else fails, are gas turbines,

我们的最后一道保险， 是天然气发电机，

combined cycle and engine power plant.

由循环发电机和涡轮发电机结合组成。

Yes, of course,

当然，

flexible fossil-fired power plants remain there,

传统火电仍然根据情况不时启用，

but we rely on them very little over the course of a year,

但是我们一年中 需要的火电量已经很少了，

allowing non-renewable electricity to be no more than two percent

不可再生能源在我 国能源中的占比已经降至

of the electricity in the grid in a regular year,

正常的年份2%以下，

and sometimes six or seven percent in a very dry one.

在干旱的年份则是6%-7%。

And get this.

更重要的是，

We achieve this goal without any single battery storage,

我们做到这点，没有使用任何蓄电池、

water pumping or any modern technology for electricity storage.

水泵或者任何现代技术来储存电力。

Uruguay has shown that the power mix can work

乌拉圭已经证明了这种能源组合

almost exclusively thanks to the complementarity

可以实现独立于

of different renewable sources

他们的不持续性而运行，

independently of their individual intermittency.

这得益于多种可再生能源的互补性。

And this is perhaps the time for you to ask the question,

也许这时你会问，

“And what happened to the economy?

“那乌拉圭的经济呢？

How much did all this cost?”

这项工程的花费得有多少？”

And the answer is even more radical.

然而答案是经济的变化 比能源结构更彻底。

The cost was negative, if I may put it this way.

这项工程的花费是负数， 我可以这么说。

In fact, we get an impressive positive impact to our economy.

事实上，我们的经济得以显著发展。

To begin with,

比如说，

the total cost to produce electricity all over a year

全年发电的总花费

was reduced by almost half.

锐减到几乎一半。

No surprise, renewable energies are the cheapest option today.

这并不意外，可再生能源 是如今最实惠的选择。

We went from about 1.1 billion dollar cost

我们的能源开销从每年11亿美元

to only 600 million dollars today.

降低到每年6亿美元。

And this impressive 500 million dollars every year

每年省下的5亿美元 对于像乌拉圭这样的国家来说

for a country like Uruguay is huge.

就是一笔巨款了。

It's one percent of its GDP.

这相当于GDP的百分之一。

Just for comparison, one percent of United States GDP,

打个比方，美国一年GDP的百分之一，

it's about 250 billion dollars annually.

就是2500亿美元。

Moreover, those tremendous cost overruns that we had in dry years,

还有，在旱年我们 曾经经历的那些经费超支，

well, they virtually disappeared.

它们基本消失了。

We went from cost overruns of about one billion dollars,

我们曾经的超支高达一年十亿美元，

to only 100 to perhaps 200 million a year

现在每年只有100万 到200万美元了。

in very dry ones.

这还是大旱之年的情况。

Surprisingly enough

令人惊讶的是，

now, though, to have much more natural sources in the grid,

现在因为有了更多 的可再生能源参与发电，

because of their complementarity,

因为它们彼此的互补性，

we are much less dependent on weather variability.

我们发电不像以前那么依赖天气情况。

Of course, achieving this tremendous cost reduction was not easy either.

当然，要做到节省这么大 一笔开支也绝非易事。

We have to innovate also on that.

我们也需要推陈出新。

We have to understand

我们必须明白

that renewable energies require a business model

可再生能源的开发需要一套

quite different from the traditional one

与先前世界上通用的能源模块

of the power sectors all over the world.

截然不同的商业模式。

We have to create a new market model.

我们需要创造新的市场架构。

Our present business model is based on long-term contracts

乌拉圭现有的市场模式

derived from auction processes

以源于拍卖程序的长期合同为基础，

in which the percentage of this source is predetermined

在这个过程中这一能源在电网中的占比

using an optimization model

已经由算法得出最优结果，

that defines which is the best technical complementarity

决定了不同能源之间技术上

between sources

互补性最好的情况，

in order to minimize the overall cost of the system.

这样可以最小化整个系统的花费。

Thanks to this, nowadays,

多亏了这一举措，

almost 100 percent of our electricity generation

我们现在发的电几乎100%

is under contract,

都是处于条约框架之下的，

leaving almost no space for the spot market

不给现货市场留一点空子，

and also no space for uncertainties.

也不给不确定性留一点空子。

The comprehensive model we had defined and put in place

我们创立和投入使用的这个综合系统

not only allows us to strongly reduce the overall costs,

不仅能够让我们大幅削减开支，

but also to stabilize it over time.

还能使能源架构逐渐趋于稳定。

The cost to produce electricity in Uruguay today is stabilized.

如今乌拉圭的发电价格是稳定的。

Think it is almost independent of the fluctuation of the prices

它基本与浮动的能源市场价格

of energy commodities.

完全无关。

Thanks to this, for example,

多亏了这点，

the Uruguayan electric mix was barely affected

乌拉圭的电费才基本没有被

by the tragic war in Europe.

欧洲的战争所影响。

We had no supply nor affordability difficulties.

我们既没有供给问题也不存在负担问题。

But the positive economic impact of this transformation

但是能源转型所带来的正面经济效益

went far beyond just the electric sector.

影响的远远不止电力部门。

We achieved a tremendous impact to our economy.

我们的经济得以腾飞。

We received six billion dollars in investment.

在投资上就收获了60亿美元。

This is 12 percent of our GDP.

这相当于我们GDP的12%。

Imagine the impact to our economy.

这对我们经济的作用可想而知。

New knowledge, new industrial, entrepreneurial capabilities,

这相当于新的技术、 新的工业和企业产能。

50,000 jobs were created.

我们建立了50000个新岗位。

This seems small, perhaps for you,

这个数字对你们来说也许不大，

but for a country with only 3.4 million inhabitants,

但是对总人口只有 340万的乌拉圭来说，

it represents three percent of its labor force.

这相当于总劳动力数量的3%。

Once again, if we were made to make a comparison,

再打个比方，

three percent of the United States labor force

美国总劳动力的3%，

is several million new jobs created.

等于几百万个岗位。

So I told you a little about what happened in Uruguay and how we did it.

以上就是在乌拉圭发生的事情， 以及我们是怎么做到的。

But you may be thinking, “OK, but that’s Uruguay,

但你可能会想， “好吧，但那是乌拉圭，

fine, but that's Uruguay.

这很好，但是只有乌拉圭做得到，

It's a small country.

这是一个小国，

They have a unique culture.

有自己独特的文化，

They have hydro.

有丰富的水力资源，

Can this be reproduced elsewhere?”

这可以在其他国家复现吗？”

So I want to be very emphatic on this.

我在这一点上是很坚决的。

Although each country will have to define its own transition process,

即使每个国家都必须摸索 自己的能源转型之路，

the vast majority of countries can make a process similar to the Uruguayan one.

大部分国家都可以仿照这条路线。

(Applause)

（掌声）

You don't necessarily need a lot of hydro backup capacity, but for sure,

你不一定需要需要大量的水力资源储备，

you need to put much more flexibility to your system

但你一定需要建立一个 高度灵活的发电系统

with a new dispatch model,

以及一个新型分配系统，

a new market model.

创新的市场模型。

But if you have people and companies doing research and developing AI

不过如果你的国家中 有人和企业正在研究和开发

and artificial intelligence and rockets,

人工智能和航天器的话，

developing a new market model, a new energy management,

建立新的市场模型和能源管理系统

shouldn't be that hard.

不会很困难。

By doing this,

这样，

we will probably not get the fossil share down to two percent,

也许不一定能将化石能源 在体系中的占比降到2%，

but for sure it will be below 15 or even 20 percent

不过一定可以降到15%或20%以下。

and in many countries, much less than that.

在很多国家，这个数字可以更低。

And you know what, for the last couple of years

然后你知道的，在过去的几年中

after leaving the government,

我从政府离职之后

I've been working in a number of countries

就在不同的国家工作，

from Dominican Republic to Chile

范围从多米尼加共和国到智利，

and many other countries in Latin America, but also in Europe,

以及拉丁美洲的许多国家，在欧洲也有，

and other regions.

还有其他地区。

And the good news is

好消息是，

that the Uruguayan solution can work in different national and energy context.

乌拉圭的道路在不同 能源背景的国家都是走得通。

But for that, there is one special ingredient.

但是这一切都依赖于一个前提。

You need to have a strong leadership

这个国家需要一个强有力的领导人

and a strong political will to move forward.

和一股积极向前的政治力量。

And for that,

要达到这个条件，

it's mostly recommended to build a broad political agreement

我们推荐的方法是 让各个政党之间达成一致

that transcends the administration in office in order to be sure

使得政府部门不断进步

that the transition will continue in time.

从而保证这一转型是长期的。

What is then the most important message for you today?

现在传达给你最重要的信息是什么？

It is very simple.

这很简单。

That renewables are no longer just a solution for the climate crisis.

可再生能源不再 仅仅是气候问题的一个解。

Renewables allow us to build strong, reliable, robust power systems.

它们让我们得以建立 可靠、强大、而且有力的能源系统；

They allow us to sharply reduce and stabilize the electricity costs,

让我们能够大幅削减并且稳定电力价格；

while at the same time having an important energy boost

与此同时也能

to our economies and job creation.

为我们的经济与劳动输出赋能。

Lessons learned from the Uruguayan case

乌拉圭为世界提供的经验是

are that renewable energies are ripe to provide

可再生能源的技术已经趋于成熟，

not just a climate solution on a global scale,

不仅可以为全球范围内的 能源问题提供解决方案，

but also substantial socio-economic benefits at a local level.

也能够在当地实现 稳定的社会经济增益。

And this can and should happen now.

现在这是可能并且应该发生的。

There's no reason to wait until 2040,

我们没有理由等到2040年。

not even 2030.

甚至2030.

Now.

让我们现在就开始行动吧。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause and cheers)

（掌声和欢呼）