Nicholas Christakis: How social networks predict epidemics

93,295 views ・ 2010-09-16

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:15
For the last 10 years, I've been spending my time trying to figure out
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how and why human beings
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assemble themselves into social networks.
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And the kind of social network I'm talking about
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is not the recent online variety,
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but rather, the kind of social networks
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that human beings have been assembling for hundreds of thousands of years,
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ever since we emerged from the African savannah.
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So, I form friendships and co-worker
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and sibling and relative relationships with other people
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who in turn have similar relationships with other people.
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And this spreads on out endlessly into a distance.
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And you get a network that looks like this.
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Every dot is a person.
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Every line between them is a relationship between two people --
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different kinds of relationships.
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And you can get this kind of vast fabric of humanity,
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in which we're all embedded.
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And my colleague, James Fowler and I have been studying for quite sometime
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what are the mathematical, social,
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biological and psychological rules
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that govern how these networks are assembled
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and what are the similar rules
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that govern how they operate, how they affect our lives.
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01:13
But recently, we've been wondering
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whether it might be possible to take advantage of this insight,
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to actually find ways to improve the world,
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to do something better,
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to actually fix things, not just understand things.
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So one of the first things we thought we would tackle
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would be how we go about predicting epidemics.
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01:31
And the current state of the art in predicting an epidemic --
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if you're the CDC or some other national body --
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is to sit in the middle where you are
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and collect data
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from physicians and laboratories in the field
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that report the prevalence or the incidence of certain conditions.
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So, so and so patients have been diagnosed with something,
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or other patients have been diagnosed,
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and all these data are fed into a central repository, with some delay.
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And if everything goes smoothly,
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one to two weeks from now
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you'll know where the epidemic was today.
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02:00
And actually, about a year or so ago,
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there was this promulgation
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of the idea of Google Flu Trends, with respect to the flu,
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where by looking at people's searching behavior today,
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we could know where the flu --
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what the status of the epidemic was today,
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what's the prevalence of the epidemic today.
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02:17
But what I'd like to show you today
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is a means by which we might get
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not just rapid warning about an epidemic,
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but also actually
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early detection of an epidemic.
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And, in fact, this idea can be used
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not just to predict epidemics of germs,
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but also to predict epidemics of all sorts of kinds.
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02:37
For example, anything that spreads by a form of social contagion
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could be understood in this way,
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from abstract ideas on the left
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like patriotism, or altruism, or religion
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to practices
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like dieting behavior, or book purchasing,
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or drinking, or bicycle-helmet [and] other safety practices,
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or products that people might buy,
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purchases of electronic goods,
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anything in which there's kind of an interpersonal spread.
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03:01
A kind of a diffusion of innovation
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could be understood and predicted
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by the mechanism I'm going to show you now.
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So, as all of you probably know,
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the classic way of thinking about this
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is the diffusion-of-innovation,
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or the adoption curve.
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So here on the Y-axis, we have the percent of the people affected,
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and on the X-axis, we have time.
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And at the very beginning, not too many people are affected,
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and you get this classic sigmoidal,
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or S-shaped, curve.
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And the reason for this shape is that at the very beginning,
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let's say one or two people
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are infected, or affected by the thing
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and then they affect, or infect, two people,
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who in turn affect four, eight, 16 and so forth,
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and you get the epidemic growth phase of the curve.
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And eventually, you saturate the population.
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There are fewer and fewer people
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who are still available that you might infect,
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and then you get the plateau of the curve,
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and you get this classic sigmoidal curve.
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And this holds for germs, ideas,
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product adoption, behaviors,
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and the like.
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But things don't just diffuse in human populations at random.
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They actually diffuse through networks.
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Because, as I said, we live our lives in networks,
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and these networks have a particular kind of a structure.
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Now if you look at a network like this --
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this is 105 people.
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And the lines represent -- the dots are the people,
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and the lines represent friendship relationships.
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You might see that people occupy
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different locations within the network.
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And there are different kinds of relationships between the people.
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You could have friendship relationships, sibling relationships,
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spousal relationships, co-worker relationships,
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neighbor relationships and the like.
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And different sorts of things
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spread across different sorts of ties.
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For instance, sexually transmitted diseases
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will spread across sexual ties.
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Or, for instance, people's smoking behavior
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might be influenced by their friends.
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Or their altruistic or their charitable giving behavior
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might be influenced by their coworkers,
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or by their neighbors.
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But not all positions in the network are the same.
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So if you look at this, you might immediately grasp
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that different people have different numbers of connections.
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Some people have one connection, some have two,
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some have six, some have 10 connections.
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And this is called the "degree" of a node,
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or the number of connections that a node has.
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But in addition, there's something else.
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So, if you look at nodes A and B,
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they both have six connections.
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But if you can see this image [of the network] from a bird's eye view,
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you can appreciate that there's something very different
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about nodes A and B.
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So, let me ask you this -- I can cultivate this intuition by asking a question --
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who would you rather be
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if a deadly germ was spreading through the network, A or B?
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(Audience: B.) Nicholas Christakis: B, it's obvious.
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B is located on the edge of the network.
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Now, who would you rather be
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if a juicy piece of gossip were spreading through the network?
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A. And you have an immediate appreciation
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that A is going to be more likely
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to get the thing that's spreading and to get it sooner
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by virtue of their structural location within the network.
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A, in fact, is more central,
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and this can be formalized mathematically.
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So, if we want to track something
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that was spreading through a network,
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what we ideally would like to do is to set up sensors
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on the central individuals within the network,
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including node A,
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monitor those people that are right there in the middle of the network,
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and somehow get an early detection
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of whatever it is that is spreading through the network.
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So if you saw them contract a germ or a piece of information,
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you would know that, soon enough,
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everybody was about to contract this germ
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or this piece of information.
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And this would be much better
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than monitoring six randomly chosen people,
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without reference to the structure of the population.
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And in fact, if you could do that,
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what you would see is something like this.
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On the left-hand panel, again, we have the S-shaped curve of adoption.
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In the dotted red line, we show
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what the adoption would be in the random people,
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and in the left-hand line, shifted to the left,
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we show what the adoption would be
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in the central individuals within the network.
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On the Y-axis is the cumulative instances of contagion,
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and on the X-axis is the time.
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And on the right-hand side, we show the same data,
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but here with daily incidence.
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And what we show here is -- like, here --
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very few people are affected, more and more and more and up to here,
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and here's the peak of the epidemic.
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But shifted to the left is what's occurring in the central individuals.
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And this difference in time between the two
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is the early detection, the early warning we can get,
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about an impending epidemic
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in the human population.
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The problem, however,
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is that mapping human social networks
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is not always possible.
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It can be expensive, not feasible,
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unethical,
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or, frankly, just not possible to do such a thing.
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So, how can we figure out
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who the central people are in a network
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without actually mapping the network?
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What we came up with
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was an idea to exploit an old fact,
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or a known fact, about social networks,
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which goes like this:
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Do you know that your friends
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have more friends than you do?
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Your friends have more friends than you do,
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and this is known as the friendship paradox.
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Imagine a very popular person in the social network --
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like a party host who has hundreds of friends --
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and a misanthrope who has just one friend,
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and you pick someone at random from the population;
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they were much more likely to know the party host.
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And if they nominate the party host as their friend,
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that party host has a hundred friends,
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therefore, has more friends than they do.
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And this, in essence, is what's known as the friendship paradox.
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The friends of randomly chosen people
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have higher degree, and are more central
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than the random people themselves.
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And you can get an intuitive appreciation for this
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if you imagine just the people at the perimeter of the network.
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If you pick this person,
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the only friend they have to nominate is this person,
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who, by construction, must have at least two
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and typically more friends.
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And that happens at every peripheral node.
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And in fact, it happens throughout the network as you move in,
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everyone you pick, when they nominate a random --
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when a random person nominates a friend of theirs,
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you move closer to the center of the network.
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So, we thought we would exploit this idea
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in order to study whether we could predict phenomena within networks.
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Because now, with this idea
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we can take a random sample of people,
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have them nominate their friends,
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those friends would be more central,
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and we could do this without having to map the network.
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And we tested this idea with an outbreak of H1N1 flu
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at Harvard College
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in the fall and winter of 2009, just a few months ago.
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We took 1,300 randomly selected undergraduates,
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we had them nominate their friends,
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and we followed both the random students and their friends
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daily in time
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to see whether or not they had the flu epidemic.
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And we did this passively by looking at whether or not they'd gone to university health services.
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And also, we had them [actively] email us a couple of times a week.
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Exactly what we predicted happened.
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So the random group is in the red line.
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The epidemic in the friends group has shifted to the left, over here.
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And the difference in the two is 16 days.
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By monitoring the friends group,
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we could get 16 days advance warning
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of an impending epidemic in this human population.
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Now, in addition to that,
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if you were an analyst who was trying to study an epidemic
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or to predict the adoption of a product, for example,
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what you could do is you could pick a random sample of the population,
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also have them nominate their friends and follow the friends
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and follow both the randoms and the friends.
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Among the friends, the first evidence you saw of a blip above zero
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in adoption of the innovation, for example,
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would be evidence of an impending epidemic.
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Or you could see the first time the two curves diverged,
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as shown on the left.
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When did the randoms -- when did the friends take off
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and leave the randoms,
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and [when did] their curve start shifting?
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And that, as indicated by the white line,
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occurred 46 days
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before the peak of the epidemic.
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So this would be a technique
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whereby we could get more than a month-and-a-half warning
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about a flu epidemic in a particular population.
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I should say that
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how far advanced a notice one might get about something
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depends on a host of factors.
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It could depend on the nature of the pathogen --
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different pathogens,
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using this technique, you'd get different warning --
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or other phenomena that are spreading,
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or frankly, on the structure of the human network.
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Now in our case, although it wasn't necessary,
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we could also actually map the network of the students.
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So, this is a map of 714 students
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and their friendship ties.
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And in a minute now, I'm going to put this map into motion.
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We're going to take daily cuts through the network
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for 120 days.
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The red dots are going to be cases of the flu,
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and the yellow dots are going to be friends of the people with the flu.
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And the size of the dots is going to be proportional
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to how many of their friends have the flu.
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So bigger dots mean more of your friends have the flu.
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And if you look at this image -- here we are now in September the 13th --
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you're going to see a few cases light up.
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You're going to see kind of blooming of the flu in the middle.
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Here we are on October the 19th.
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The slope of the epidemic curve is approaching now, in November.
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Bang, bang, bang, bang, bang -- you're going to see lots of blooming in the middle,
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and then you're going to see a sort of leveling off,
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fewer and fewer cases towards the end of December.
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And this type of a visualization
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can show that epidemics like this take root
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and affect central individuals first,
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before they affect others.
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Now, as I've been suggesting,
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this method is not restricted to germs,
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but actually to anything that spreads in populations.
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Information spreads in populations,
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norms can spread in populations,
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behaviors can spread in populations.
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And by behaviors, I can mean things like criminal behavior,
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or voting behavior, or health care behavior,
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like smoking, or vaccination,
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or product adoption, or other kinds of behaviors
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that relate to interpersonal influence.
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If I'm likely to do something that affects others around me,
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this technique can get early warning or early detection
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about the adoption within the population.
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The key thing is that for it to work,
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there has to be interpersonal influence.
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It cannot be because of some broadcast mechanism
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affecting everyone uniformly.
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Now the same insights
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can also be exploited -- with respect to networks --
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can also be exploited in other ways,
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for example, in the use of targeting
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specific people for interventions.
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So, for example, most of you are probably familiar
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with the notion of herd immunity.
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So, if we have a population of a thousand people,
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and we want to make the population immune to a pathogen,
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we don't have to immunize every single person.
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If we immunize 960 of them,
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it's as if we had immunized a hundred [percent] of them.
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Because even if one or two of the non-immune people gets infected,
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there's no one for them to infect.
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They are surrounded by immunized people.
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So 96 percent is as good as 100 percent.
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Well, some other scientists have estimated
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what would happen if you took a 30 percent random sample
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of these 1000 people, 300 people and immunized them.
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Would you get any population-level immunity?
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And the answer is no.
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But if you took this 30 percent, these 300 people
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and had them nominate their friends
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and took the same number of vaccine doses
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and vaccinated the friends of the 300 --
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the 300 friends --
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you can get the same level of herd immunity
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as if you had vaccinated 96 percent of the population
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at a much greater efficiency, with a strict budget constraint.
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And similar ideas can be used, for instance,
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to target distribution of things like bed nets
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in the developing world.
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If we could understand the structure of networks in villages,
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we could target to whom to give the interventions
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to foster these kinds of spreads.
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Or, frankly, for advertising with all kinds of products.
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If we could understand how to target,
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it could affect the efficiency
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of what we're trying to achieve.
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And in fact, we can use data
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from all kinds of sources nowadays [to do this].
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This is a map of eight million phone users
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in a European country.
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Every dot is a person, and every line represents
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a volume of calls between the people.
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And we can use such data, that's being passively obtained,
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to map these whole countries
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and understand who is located where within the network.
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Without actually having to query them at all,
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we can get this kind of a structural insight.
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And other sources of information, as you're no doubt aware
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are available about such features, from email interactions,
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online interactions,
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online social networks and so forth.
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And in fact, we are in the era of what I would call
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"massive-passive" data collection efforts.
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They're all kinds of ways we can use massively collected data
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to create sensor networks
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to follow the population,
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understand what's happening in the population,
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and intervene in the population for the better.
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Because these new technologies tell us
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not just who is talking to whom,
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but where everyone is,
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and what they're thinking based on what they're uploading on the Internet,
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and what they're buying based on their purchases.
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And all this administrative data can be pulled together
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and processed to understand human behavior
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in a way we never could before.
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So, for example, we could use truckers' purchases of fuel.
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So the truckers are just going about their business,
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and they're buying fuel.
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And we see a blip up in the truckers' purchases of fuel,
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and we know that a recession is about to end.
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Or we can monitor the velocity
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with which people are moving with their phones on a highway,
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and the phone company can see,
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as the velocity is slowing down,
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that there's a traffic jam.
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And they can feed that information back to their subscribers,
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but only to their subscribers on the same highway
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located behind the traffic jam!
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Or we can monitor doctors prescribing behaviors, passively,
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and see how the diffusion of innovation with pharmaceuticals
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occurs within [networks of] doctors.
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Or again, we can monitor purchasing behavior in people
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and watch how these types of phenomena
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can diffuse within human populations.
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And there are three ways, I think,
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that these massive-passive data can be used.
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One is fully passive,
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like I just described --
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as in, for instance, the trucker example,
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where we don't actually intervene in the population in any way.
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One is quasi-active,
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like the flu example I gave,
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where we get some people to nominate their friends
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and then passively monitor their friends --
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do they have the flu, or not? -- and then get warning.
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Or another example would be,
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if you're a phone company, you figure out who's central in the network
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and you ask those people, "Look, will you just text us your fever every day?
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Just text us your temperature."
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And collect vast amounts of information about people's temperature,
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but from centrally located individuals.
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And be able, on a large scale,
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to monitor an impending epidemic
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with very minimal input from people.
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Or, finally, it can be more fully active --
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as I know subsequent speakers will also talk about today --
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where people might globally participate in wikis,
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or photographing, or monitoring elections,
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and upload information in a way that allows us to pool
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information in order to understand social processes
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and social phenomena.
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In fact, the availability of these data, I think,
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heralds a kind of new era
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of what I and others would like to call
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"computational social science."
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It's sort of like when Galileo invented -- or, didn't invent --
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came to use a telescope
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and could see the heavens in a new way,
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or Leeuwenhoek became aware of the microscope --
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or actually invented --
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and could see biology in a new way.
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But now we have access to these kinds of data
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that allow us to understand social processes
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and social phenomena
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in an entirely new way that was never before possible.
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And with this science, we can
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understand how exactly
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the whole comes to be greater
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than the sum of its parts.
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And actually, we can use these insights
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to improve society and improve human well-being.
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Thank you.
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About this website

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