The Fight Over Minerals for Green Energy — and a Better Way Forward | Saleem Ali | TED

翻译人员: Sue Lu 校对人员: Yip Yan Yeung

Consider a humble box of breakfast cereal.

看看这盒不起眼的早餐麦片。

On its side you will find a list of minerals.

盒子侧面列有一份矿物清单。

Minerals which are so essential for our metabolism

这些矿物质对我们的新陈代谢至关重要，

that we are willing to make exceptions, even in times of war,

所以即便是战时，我们也愿意破例

for trade in grains.

用谷物来换取。

This has happened indeed

in the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

目前的俄罗斯和乌克兰冲突中。

Now minerals are also essential for humanity in another pivotal way.

矿物质的重要性也体现在另一关键方面，

They help us build the infrastructure to deliver on clean, reliable energy.

即帮助我们建造基础设施 用来提供清洁、可靠的能源。

Energy, of course, drives life in all its various forms,

能源以各种形式驱动生命，

and mineral raw materials are the means by which we harness that energy.

而矿物原料是我们利用能源的手段。

Now the interesting thing is that the more sustainable forms of energy

有意思的是，可持续性越强的能源

are the ones that require more materials.

需要越多的矿物原料。

Have a look at this research we did.

请看我们做的这项研究。

For the same amount of energy generation,

对于同等的发电量，

take a look at how much more material you need for solar, wind,

需要多少矿物来帮助 产生能源如太阳能、 风能、

hydropower and geothermal.

水力发电和地热。

For solar in particular,

特别是太阳能，

the blue bar represents critical minerals

蓝条代表那些关键矿物所需量，

which are required for us to squeeze that sunshine juice that we so crave.

用以生产我们梦寐以求的太阳能。

Now I've spent most of my career studying environmental

我职业生涯的大部分时间都在研究环境

and social conflicts

和社会的冲突，

and finding ways of resolving them.

并寻找解决冲突的办法。

And what I've discovered

我发现，

is that those conflicts that involve minerals and energy

那些涉及矿产和能源的冲突

are the most intractable.

是最棘手的。

Why is that the case?

为什么会这样？

Well, it's because minerals and energy infrastructure are confined by geography.

因为矿产和能源基础设施受地理限制。

You can only mine where there are minerals.

你只能在有矿产的地方采矿，

You can only have wind power where you've got wind, and so on.

在有风的地方开发风能，依此类推。

So you are in this situation

因此，在这种情况下，

where you're only going to be able

你只能在

to harness these resources in particular areas.

特定地区利用这些资源。

So if you look here, South Africa for example,

看这里，比如南非，

has massive reserves of platinum.

有巨大的铂金储量，

That's an accident of geology.

一个地质学上的意外，

But that makes South Africa a pivotal player in the hydrogen economy.

让南非成为氢经济的关键角色。

Why, you would wonder?

你大概在想，为什么呢？

Hydrogen? Platinum?

氢？铂金？

Well, you need platinum for hydrogen fuel cells.

因为氢燃料电池需要铂金。

Also have a look at China's dominance there.

再看看中国的主导地位。

China has invested tremendously in downprocessing their technologies

中国在技术深加工方面投入巨资，

around especially refining minerals.

尤其在提炼矿物上。

And so downstream refining is also going to be pivotal

而且下游精炼也起着关键作用，

in delivering those minerals.

能保障那些矿物的供应。

Now diversification is something we are seeking,

目前，多元化也是我们所寻求的，

and one of the ways in which we're trying to do that

我们正在努力做的

is to invest all over the world in other places

就是在世界各地投资一些

where we can mine and refine.

我们可以进行开采和提炼的地区。

But keep in mind that if you're going to do that,

但是请记住，如果你打算那样做，

you will probably end up developing new sites,

你最终可能就会开发新矿区，

and that may not necessarily be more efficient economically

而那不一定会更经济，

or cleaner even.

或者更清洁。

So, while diversification builds resilience,

因此，尽管多元化能增强抗灾力，

it is likely to lead to greenfield development, new sites, right,

它也可能导致绿地及新矿区开发，

as opposed to brownfield development.

而不是对现有区域的利用开发。

Now with greenfield development, we have a challenge

伴随绿地开发，我们将面临一个挑战，

because communities often don't want these sites in their backyard.

即社区通常会反对在其地盘上进行开发。

We've just seen in the last year in Minnesota,

去年，我们在明尼苏达州看到

there was a very lucrative green-transition minerals project,

一个利润丰厚的绿色转型矿产项目，

which was denied a permit by the US Department of Interior

被美国内政部拒发许可证，

because of concerns on social and environmental risks

出于对社会和环境风险的担忧，

raised by Indigenous communities.

而担忧就是来自当地土著社区。

And indeed, we need to respect those concerns.

确实，我们需要尊重这些担忧。

So you have this strange situation where you have geopolitical tensions

所以，你会面临这种奇特的状况： 地缘政治紧张局势

between countries where there is immense supply of resources

存在于拥有丰富资源的国家

and those where there is demand,

和有资源需求的国家之间，

such as between China and the United States currently.

例如如今的中美关系。

And then you have domestic conflicts over social and environmental risk.

此外，你也面临围绕社会 和环境风险的国内冲突。

So this is the perfect storm, right?

雪上加霜，对吧？

How do we get out of it?

那我们如何摆脱困境？

Well my big bet is that we can get out of it

我坚信我们能摆脱困境，

if we reconfigure the conversation around a planetary mechanism

只要我们重设对话，一切围绕全球机制，

or what I'm calling

或是围绕我所说的

a "mineral trust" for the green transition.

为绿色转型而设的“矿产信托”。

Now how would this mineral trust work?

那么，这个矿产信托将如何运作？

Well, it would be similar to an asset protection trust,

它类似于资产保护信托，

where you've got a beneficiary that assigns a third party with control,

受益人将控制权指派给第三方，

which is a trustee,

即受托人，

on how to manage those resources most effectively.

受托人负责最有效地管理这些资源。

So in this case, in the mineral trust,

此例中，矿产信托的

the beneficiaries would be the mineral producing countries.

受益者将是矿物生产国，

You would also have the technology-producing countries

另外还有技术生产国，

who are demanding the minerals

它们是矿产需求国，

part of the trustee relationship.

也是受托关系的一部分。

So the trustees would be both.

因此，受托人将包括这两者。

And so the minerals would go into the mineral trust.

矿物将进入矿产信托基金。

You would have a market price that would be paid by those countries

然后你制定市场价格，由那些

that are demanding the minerals.

需要矿产的国家支付。

Profits would still accrue in the same way.

利润仍将照常累积。

And you would have key decision points managed by technical,

并且，关键决策将由联合国的技术部门

not political arms of the United Nations.

而不是政治部门来管理。

And this would in this case be

在此例中，管理机构将是

the International Renewable Energy Agency

国际可再生能源机构

and the Climate Technology Centre and Network.

以及气候技术中心和网络。

And so what you would have then is this mechanism

因此，这种机制

that is much more technocratic

更具技术官僚性，

and also much more efficient.

也更高效率。

You would also pivotally have a green stockpile

重要的是，你还将拥有绿色库存，

where, under situations of commodity price changes,

在商品价格变动时，

you would be buffered from those problems for mineral-producing countries.

你就能避开矿物生产国所面临的问题。

And it would also be like a rainy day fund.

它也类似一个应急基金。

Now in terms of the larger scheme of things,

从大局来看，

this is going to potentially play out pretty well.

这可能会取得很好的效果。

But you would wonder why would this be operationalized?

你大概在想，为什么要如此程序化？

And so a country like Indonesia, let's say,

比方说，像印度尼西亚这样的国家，

it's the world's largest nickel producer, right?

它是世界上最大的镍生产国，对吧？

It would still have the full control over producing nickel

它将仍然控制镍的生产，

and also being able to sell the nickel for profit.

并出售镍来获取利润。

The only difference is it couldn't weaponize

唯一的区别是它不能

the control of its resource.

将对资源的控制武器化。

And that would make this a much more efficient system

这也使矿产信托更加有效，

for the global economy as well.

有利于全球经济发展。

Now I can understand some of you may be still very concerned

我可以理解你们中一些人的担忧，

that this kind of a mechanism is unnecessary.

认为这种机制完全没有必要。

Friends in the environmentalist community would say:

环保人士社区的朋友会说：

"We should just be consuming less, we shouldn't be mining," right?

“我们应减少消费，不应采矿”，对吧？

And I totally agree with you,

我完全赞同，

but that's for high-income countries.

但那是针对高收入国家的。

Keep in mind there are 760 million people, at least,

请记住，至少有 7.6 亿人

who do not have access to even electricity.

甚至连电都用不上。

You can't ask them to consume less, right?

你不能要求他们减少消费，对吧？

So you've got that dynamic at play.

所以你要考虑这种状况。

Now the second question,

第二个问题，

which our friends would often raise, again,

也是朋友们常问的，

within the environmentalist community is:

同样来自环保人士社区：

"Why don't we recycle?" Right?

“为什么我们不回收利用？”

And that's a very cogent question,

这是很合乎逻辑的问题，

but you need to have stock of material to recycle, folks.

但是你得有东西来回收吧。

If you don't have the stock, you can't recycle.

如果没有，就回收利用不了。

And the other challenge with recycling is that it puts you in this trade off

回收的另一个挑战是，你得权衡

between durability of a product --

产品的耐久性——

so you want your product to last long

你希望你的产品能持久耐用，

because that's an important sustainability criterion,

因为这是重要的可持续性标准。

but if it lasts long, you can't recycle it, right?

但如果它持久耐用， 就无法回收了，是吧？

So you have to find that sweet spot

所以，你得找到那个最佳平衡点，

of how long you want to have that product in use.

针对你期望的产品使用寿命。

And we did this analysis just for electric car batteries.

为此，我们对电动汽车电池进行了分析。

And in here you can see in the red bars basically

你可以从这儿的红条中看到

that is the amount of mineral stock in 2015 to 2016

2015 年至 2016 年的矿产库存量，

that was available out of recycled material

这些矿产是从回收材料中提取的，

to contribute towards manufacturing these batteries.

可以用来制造电池。

And look at the blue bars, how the demand is likely to grow.

再看看蓝条，显示需求是如何增长的，

And that's in-use material.

那是对所使用材料的需求。

So the average sweet spot is 14 years for an electric car battery.

电动车电池平均最佳使用寿命 14 年，

So you want it to last 14 years.

所以你会指望它能用 14 年，

And you cannot have that material available for recycling, OK?

那就没法回收这些材料了，OK？

But the good news with our mineral trust

但是，我们矿产信托的好消息是

is that it can still be used as a mechanism

它还是可以作为一种机制

actually to have recycling put through.

来帮助进行回收利用。

Where would it go?

如何运作呢？

You could put it in the stockpile.

你可以把那些材料放在库存里。

So once you have the stocks, you want a circular economy,

一旦你有了存货，想搞个循环经济，

you put it in the stockpile, and you could even lease metal,

就把它存入库存， 你甚至还可以出租金属，

which is really cool, right?

很酷，对吧？

Like you lease your cars, you could lease your metal.

就像出租你的车一样， 你也能出租金属。

And you know, that way batteries could be leased and so on.

电池也能出租，以及其他。

And that creates incentives as well.

这也就创造了激励机制，

But the trust can be used for that too.

信托可以用来做这件事。

Now I know there are still friends who will be skeptics,

我知道还是有朋友会持怀疑态度，

especially in the defense establishment.

尤其是在那些反对阵营中的。

And they'll say, like, this guy coming from academia, rolling their eyes,

他们会说，比如这个 来自学术界的人，翻着白眼，

basically saying, you know,

基本上会这么说（唱），

this fellow is just singing some mineral kumbaya in la la land.

也就是唱些幻想世界中 矿产如何“从天而降”。

He has no idea about realpolitik

他根本不懂现实政治，

and, you know, the high politics of war and peace.

也不懂战争与和平的高层政治。

Well I would respectfully submit to them

那么，我想恭敬地告诉他们，

that I have actually looked at war and peace issues.

我实际上研究过战争与和平问题。

I come originally from Pakistan,

我原籍巴基斯坦,

which is a country that has endured much conflict.

这个国家经受过很多冲突，

So I am sensitive to those issues.

所以我对这些问题很敏感。

And you'd be surprised, actually,

实际上，你会惊讶地发现

to find that it is precisely over planetary issues

正是在关于全球的问题上，

where humanity has cooperated in unlikely ways.

人类以不可能的方式进行了合作。

The only treaty in the United Nations system where we have ratification

联合国体系中，唯一得到

from all UN member states is a treaty on environmental protection.

所有成员国认可的，是环境保护条约。

It's the treaty to protect the ozone layer, alright?

这是保护臭氧层的条约，对吧？

Now you'd say that was in 1987,

你也许会说那是在 1987 年，

it was a time of relative peace.

一个相对和平的时期。

Well go back to the 1950s.

那么，在 20 世纪 50 年代，

We have the Antarctic Treaty,

我们有《南极条约》。

where you had multiple claimants on this massive continent.

在南极广阔的大陆上， 有多个权利主张国家。

And those claimants, for the greater good of science,

而它们为了科学的发展，

set aside their claims,

搁置了各自的主张，

and they signed the Antarctic Treaty,

签署了《南极条约》，

including the former Soviet Union.

其中包括前苏联。

Have a look at this photograph as well.

再看看这张照片，

It shows scientists from the former Soviet Union

上面是一些科学家，来自前苏联

and the United States of America

和美利坚合众国，

chatting quite amiably

正在友好地交谈着，

at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA.

那是在国际应用系统分析研究所，IIASA。

That's a mouthful, just remember IIASA.

这名称说起来很费劲， 记住 IIASA 就行了。

IIASA was established at the height of the Cold War,

IIASA 成立于冷战高峰期，

in the year I was born, incidentally.

也就是我出生那年，很巧。

But that organization is still around today.

这个组织至今仍然存在。

Why was it established even then?

为什么它会在那个时候成立？

Because during the Cold War, too,

因为在冷战期间，

the former Soviet Union, the United States and many other countries

前苏联、美国和许多其他国家

realized that global environmental data has to be shared.

意识到必须共享全球环境数据。

And it is this institution which develops

正是这个机构研发了

many of the social protection models around climate change as well,

许多围绕气候变化的社会保护模型，

in terms of doing scenario analysis.

尤其是在情景分析方面。

And so IIASA shows us

因此，IIASA 展示了

that we can cooperate over these kinds of issues as well.

我们也可以在此类问题上进行合作。

Now even in terms of metals,

那么，就是在金属方面，

we have had one experiment of trying to cooperate.

我们也进行了一项合作实验。

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

1970 年代的联合国贸易和发展会议

in the 1970s tried to set up a trading platform for the metal tin.

试图为金属锡建立交易平台，

But it didn't work

但是没有奏效，

because it was never framed around planetary sustainability issues.

因为它从未围绕地球可持续性问题展开。

So I've tried to, in this idea for a mineral trust,

所以，针对矿产信托构想，我努力

learn from these lessons and mistakes so that it is a very pragmatic idea.

吸取这些经验教训， 让这个构想更加务实。

It's not pie in the sky, it's something we can do.

这不是天上掉馅饼， 而是我们可以做到的事情。

The good news is we do have now a new panel

好消息是，我们现在有个新的专家组，

that has been established by the United Nations secretary general

由联合国秘书长成立，

that is focused on energy transition minerals.

专门研究能源转型矿产。

So we hope that this idea can hopefully be taken up in a very timely way,

我们希望这个构想能够及时被采纳，

because time is running out.

因为时间不多了。

Scientists have consensus

科学家们一致认为，

that we have basically come to the point

我们已经到了这个地步，

of crossing five key tipping points on climate change

将会跨越气候变化的五个关键临界点，

within the next few decades.

而这一切都会发生在未来几十年。

And without minerals, folks,

没有矿产资源，朋友们，

we cannot mitigate emissions, as I have shown.

我们就无法减少排放，如前所示。

But we cannot even adapt.

而且，我们甚至无法适应，

Because even for infrastructure,

因为即使是那些基础设施，

for adaptation, you need minerals, right?

为了适应环境而修建的，它也需要矿产。

So minerals are a civilizational asset.

因此，矿产资源是文明的资产，

We don't need to fight over them.

我们不需为此而争斗。

We have the history and precedent to show that we can cooperate over them,

历史先例表明，我们可以就此进行合作，

just as we have cooperated over grains,

就像在含矿物的谷物上进行合作一样，

which have minerals, in times of war,

哪怕是在战争时期。

we can surely cooperate over minerals that energize our lives.

我们肯定可以在那些 激发生命活力的矿产上进行合作，

Our future depends on it.

我们的未来取决于此。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）